Interim FindingsJosh Malt, MSc, RPBio

Section Head, Terrestrial WildlifeForests, Lands, and Natural Resource Operations

Project Interactions

AQUATIC TERRESTRIAL

Fish

Inverts

ASTR

PGS

HADU

NOGO

SPOW

• Water

Diversion

• Ramping

• Project

Footprints

• Indirect &

Temporary

EffectsGoats

Grizzly Bears

• Human

Activity &

Disturbance

Coastal Tailed Frogs

Breed in perennial headwater streams

Extended larval and juvenile stages

Consistent overlap with ROR Hydropower

Sensitive to changes in instream conditions

Indicator species in fish-less streams

Special Concern (COSEWIC)

Potential Impacts

Reduced aquatic habitat availability

Changed sedimentation patterns and

embeddedness

Changes to distribution of suitable substrate

Changes to temperature regime

Reduced population connectivity

Disturbance of riparian habitat

Study Objectives

Link assessment and monitoring

Encourage consistent methods

Provide guidance to Statutory Decision Makers

Environmental risks

Significance of impacts

Provide guidance to proponents

Methods and Study Design

Avoidance & Mitigation Measures

Guidance

Outline

BACI Study Design

General results

Example at one operational facility

Buried Penstock Stream Crossings

Sediment & Biofilm

Temperature regimes & Thermal Performance

Conclusions & Next Steps

Partners

SFU – Wendy Palen Lab

UBC – John Richardson Lab

Rylee Murray

Danielle Courcelles

FLNR Research Funding

Wind River

CDC-Laidlaw Power

Map of facilities

9

SAKWI CR

KEENAN CR

HUNTER CR

E&W

WAHLEACH CR

TAMIHI CR

Before-After Control-Impact

Design

Screen clipping taken: 2014-03-13, 12:21 PM

Correcting for imperfect

detection Detectability is low

Detectability varies spatially and temporarily

Occupancy approach

Correction of detection bias

Estimates of ‘true’ abundance

N-mixture models: PCount in R

Power Analysis

Power Analysis

BACI Sample Sizes To Date

14

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

F ACILITY

Hunter East 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5

Hunter West 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Sakwi Tributary (Keenan Ck)

5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4

Sakwi Ck Mainstem

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Tamihi Ck 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5

Wahleach Ck 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6

Total # Sites 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29

Total # Site-Visits 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87

Top Models

15

Abundance Model Detection Model AIC delta AICwt Cum. Wt

Elevation + Slope + Facility Cloud cover + Day of Year + Precipitation + Shade 3523.42 0 0.58 0.58

Elevation + Slope + Facility Cloud cover + Day of Year + Shade 3525.46 2.04 0.21 0.79

Elevation + Facility Cloud cover + Day of Year + Shade 3527.15 3.73 0.09 0.88

Elevation + Facility Cloud cover + Day of Year + Precipitation + Shade 3527.2 3.78 0.087 0.96

16

Variable Effect Sizes

Estimating Abundance

17

BACI Example at one Facility

18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

F ACILITY

Hunter East 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5

Hunter West 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Sakwi Tributary (Keenan Ck)

5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4

Sakwi Ck Mainstem

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Tamihi Ck 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5

Wahleach Ck 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6

Total # Sites 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29

Total # Site-Visits 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87

Linear Mixed Effects Model

Linear Mixed Effects Model on raw counts

Log(abundance) = Period + Treatment + Period*Treatment

(random effects = year + site + visit)

BACI Results

19

F-value =

9.4

p = 0.002

F-value =

4.9

p = 0.4

Biological Mechanisms

Reduced aquatic habitat availability

Changed sedimentation patterns and

embeddedness

Changes to distribution of suitable substrate

Changes to temperature regime

Reduced population connectivity

Disturbance of riparian habitat

Biological Mechanisms

Reduced aquatic habitat availability

Changed sedimentation patterns and

embeddedness

Changes to distribution of suitable substrate

Changes to temperature regime

Reduced population connectivity

Disturbance of riparian habitat

Buried Penstock Stream Crossings

• Direct Effect

• Unanticipated

Impact

Penstock BACI Design

3 TCS Surveys

Before / After

CONTROL

IMPACT

DOWNSTREAM

IMPACT

Interactions between sediment and

biofilm

Interactions between sediment and biofilm

Biofilm is key food source for herbivorous tadpoles

12 transects x 3 rocks x above/below weir x 4

streams

Analyzed Chlorophyll a and Ash-Free Dry Mass

25

Interactions between sediment and

biofilm

Assessing stream temperature regimes

5 data loggers May-October x above/below weir x 30

min sampling rate x 4 streams

Distance from headwaters (km)

Diffe

rence

in

ave

rage

daily

tem

pera

ture

fro

m h

ea

dw

ate

rs (

°C

)

0 2 4 6 8 10

0

1

2

3

4

Assessing resilience via Thermal

Performance

Acclimatize tadpoles to range of temperatures

Compare burst swimming speeds

Locomotive performance related to changes in

predation risk, foraging, fecundity, population

growth

Relationships between locomotion and

temperature

Thermal Performance Curves

Thermal performance optima, maxima, and safety

margins

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

010

20

30

40

50

60

Temperature (°C)

Velo

city (

m/s

)

Temperature (°C)

Freq

uenc

y

5 10 15 20

050

100

150

200

250

300

Temperature (°C)

Freq

uenc

y

5 10 15 20

050

100

150

200

250

300

Temperature(oC)

Velocity(cm/s)

Conclusions

Large differences between watersheds

Detectability affected by site, weather, and season

Impacts to stream connectivity could be important

Sediment and biofilm are interrelated

Hydropower operation could increase temperature,

not to detriment of performance

Completion of study required to improve clarity

Next Steps

Continued Monitoring (5 years post-construction)

Building consistency in assessment & monitoring

Analysis & publication

MSc & PhD theses