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Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan
Introduction
The 2010 State Hazard Mitigation Plan (SHMP) included a specific objective related to researching sea level rise The former objective 4.3 was worded to say, “Monitor climate change and sea level rise research; create a compendium of existing studies and data.” For this reason, the State Hazard Mitigation Plan Advisory Team (SHMPAT) began focusing efforts related to sea level rise over the last three years,
The Department of Economic Opportunity (DEO) was able to secure funding to allocate
towards accomplishing objective 4.3. As a part of their efforts, a focus group of subject matter experts was established to share sea level rise documents and information. The result of their research can be found within this compendium. The Division of Emergency Management (DEM) is part of DEO’s sea level rise focus group and has kept track of the sea level rise efforts that staff has taken part in over the last three years. DEM activities have been included within this appendix, prior to the start of the compendium.
Moving forward, the SHMPAT will continue to address sea level rise and will expand
efforts to include climate change. Goal 4 of the 2013 SHMP states that the SHMPAT will, “Support mitigation initiatives and policies that protect the state’s cultural, economic, and natural resources.” As a part of achieving the goal, objective 4.5 reads, “Participate in climate change and sea level rise research that will further the state and local government’s ability to plan for and mitigate the impacts of future vulnerability.” It is the goal of the SHMPAT to include as much relevant information on this topic as possible in future mitigation plans, and to share it with the communities that will be greatly impacted by such changes. We have seen significant increases in the amount of information available in the last three years and expect that much more will become available during the interim period.
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan
Participation in Sea Level Rise and Climate Change Activities by DEM Mitigation Staff
Title When was it? Where was it? Who hosted it? Synopsis
Attended presentation about sea level rise February 2, 2011 Tallahassee, FL Julie Dennis, DCA
planner
Presented by Julie Dennis, DCA planner with special interest in
Waterfronts FL program
Coordination meeting April 4, 2011 Tallahassee, FL DCA (DEO) and DEM
To discuss coordination between DCA (DEO) and DEM on a grant to
study sea level rise/ coastal adaptation
Meeting to coordinate with DEO on coastal adaptation grant work
January 5, 2012 Tallahassee, FL DEO and DEM Meeting to coordinate with DEO on coastal adaptation grant work
Community Resiliency Webinar June 25, 2012 Webinar GOMA To learn about community resiliency
and climate change in coastal areas
Attended NOAA's Social Coast webinar July 11, 2012 Webinar NOAA To learn about community resiliency
and climate change in coastal areas
Sea Level Rise Workshop August 9, 2012 Tallahassee, FL
Florida Sea Grant, and Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve
The workshop discussed the basic elements of sea level rise and the
effect that it will have on our coasts and property.
"Legal Issues in Coastal Change"
workshop August 9, 2012 Tallahassee, FL
Florida Sea Grant, and Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve
Workshop to discuss ramifications of coastal changes (climate change/
sea level rise) on property rights
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan
Title When was it? Where was it? Who hosted it? Synopsis
FEMA Region IV Coastal Outreach Coordination Call
August 12, 2012 NA FEMA Region IV Discussing the best practices and lessons of coastal discovery.
Attended DEO presentation on
climate change grant activity
September 24, 2012 Tallahassee, FL DEO Update on grant activities & needs
Coastal Community Resiliency
September 14, 2012 Naples, FL
Florida chapter of the American
Planning Association annual
conference
There was a session on planning for community resiliency where a panel
discussed some of the planning efforts around the state pertaining to climate change and specifically sea level rise. Also discussed some of the potential impacts Florida could
see from sea level rise on infrastructure, as well as some legal issues pertaining to planning and sea
level rise.
Florida Climate Institute Experts on
Sea Level Rise Mitigation
November 16, 2012 Tallahassee, FL Florida Climate
Institute
Highly respected researchers from Florida universities came to voice their opinion on their research and
potential mitigation measures for sea level rise.
Long Term Recovery Planning Summit:
Post Disaster Redevelopment
Planning and Beyond
July 10-11, 2012
1201 Riverplace Blvd
Jacksonville, FL 32207
South Atlantic Alliance (Florida,
Georgia, North Carolina and South
Carolina)
Provided an overview of Florida's PDRP Initiative and learn from other
recovery efforts. Also discuss pre-disaster planning for long- term
recovery.
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan
Title When was it? Where was it? Who hosted it? Synopsis
Coastal Community Resiliency Focus
Groups
July 26, 2012 August 16, 2012 October 3, 2012
NA DEO/ DEM Coastal
Community Resiliency
Focus group calls to talk about prevalent community resiliency topics. Academic and planning
research was applied.
Risk and Response: Sea Level Rise
Summit June 20-22, 2012 Boca Raton, FL
Florida Atlantic University Sea
Level Rise Summit
Sessions and discussions held to create a portfolio of lessons learned
and a stimulus for further insight and action in new policies and initiatives
concerning sea level rise.
Governors South Atlantic Alliance
Conference
September 6-7, 2012 Charleston, SC Governors South
Atlantic Alliance
Governors from the south-eastern states gathered to discuss proactive
activities to encompass planning and mitigation strategies for sea level
rise.
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan
HowCountries,States,andFloridaAddressSeaLevelRise
ACompendiumofClimateAdaptationResearch
Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
11/15/2012
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan ii
ContentsFLORIDA:GENERALRESEARCH&PLANNING..........................................................................................................................1
Preparing for a Sea Change in Florida ................................................................................................................................. 1
Florida: Public Opinion on Climate Change......................................................................................................................... 2
Florida and Climate Change: The Costs of Inaction ............................................................................................................ 3
Climate Change and Land Use in Florida, Interdependencies and Opportunities .............................................................. 4
Keeping Our Heads above Water: Surviving the Challenges of SLR in Florida .................................................................... 5
SLR Ready: Model Comprehensive Plan Goals, Objectives, and Policies to Address SLR Impacts in Florida ..................... 6
Florida’s Energy and Climate Change Action Plan .............................................................................................................. 7
Climate Change in Coastal Areas in Florida: Sea Level Rise Estimations & Economic Analysis to Year 2080 ..................... 8
Florida Department of Transportation ............................................................................................................................... 9
Adaptive Response Planning to Sea Level Rise in Florida and
Implications for Comprehensive and Public‐Facilities Planning ....................................................................................... 11
Initial Estimates of the Ecological and Economic Consequences of Sea Level Rise on the Florida Keys
through the year 2100 ...................................................................................................................................................... 13
Climate Change and the FL Keys ....................................................................................................................................... 14
Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan ................................................................................................................... 15
Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Change in Southern Florida’s Greater Everglades Landscape .................... 16
Climate Change Action Plan for the Florida Reef System 2010‐2015 ............................................................................... 17
Ecological Effects of SLR in the Florida Panhandle and Coastal Alabama ......................................................................... 18
Retrospective and Prospective Model Simulations of SLR Impacts on Gulf of Mexico
Coastal Marshes and Forests in Waccasassa Bay, Florida ................................................................................................ 19
Bursting the Bubble of Doom and Adapting to SLR .......................................................................................................... 20
Integrated Modeling for the Assessment of Ecological Impacts of SLR ............................................................................ 21
Effects of Climate Change on Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Resources ............................................................................. 22
Assessment of Redefining Florida’s Coastal High Hazard Area ......................................................................................... 23
Florida’s Resilient Coasts: A State Policy Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change ................................................ 24
FLORIDACITIES................................................................................................................................................................................25
City of Punta Gorda Adaptation plan ................................................................................................................................ 25
City of Satellite Beach ....................................................................................................................................................... 26
Municipal Adaptation to SLR – Satellite Beach ................................................................................................................. 27
Yankeetown, FL ................................................................................................................................................................. 28
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan iii
FLORIDACOUNTIES®IONS.................................................................................................................................................29
Lee County Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment ..................................................................................................... 29
Lee County Climate Change and Resiliency Strategy ........................................................................................................ 30
Sarasota County, FL: Current and Future Vulnerability to Hurricane Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise ............................ 31
Sarasota, FL: Influence of Potential Sea Level Rise on Societal Vulnerability to Hurricanes Storm‐surge Hazards,
Sarasota County, FL ........................................................................................................................................................... 32
Planning for SLR and Hurricane Storm Surge in Sarasota County .................................................................................... 33
Sea Level Rise in the Tampa Bay Region ........................................................................................................................... 34
Land Use Impacts and Solutions to SLR in East Central Florida ........................................................................................ 35
Climate Change and Sea‐Level Rise in Florida .................................................................................................................. 36
Charlotte Harbor Regional Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment ............................................................................ 37
Comprehensive SW FL/Charlotte Harbor Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment ...................................................... 38
Sea Level Rise in the Treasure Coast Region ..................................................................................................................... 39
South Florida Water Management District ....................................................................................................................... 40
Developing a Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Framework for South Florida ......................................................................... 41
South Florida SLR Project .................................................................................................................................................. 42
Past and Projected Trends in Climate and Sea Level for South Florida ............................................................................ 43
Florida Forever Work Plan ................................................................................................................................................ 44
Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact ...................................................................................................... 45
A Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for Southeast Florida ................................................................................................ 46
Development of an Adaptation Toolbox to Protect Southeast Florida Water Supplies from Climate Change ................ 47
U.S.STATES.........................................................................................................................................................................................48
California ........................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Hazard Mitigation Plan .................................................................................................................................................. 48
CA Climate Change Regulation ...................................................................................................................................... 49
2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy Report to the Governor ........................................................................ 50
Sea Level Rise Adaptation Strategy for San Diego Bay ................................................................................................. 52
Goleta Beach 2.0: Managed Retreat to Mitigate Coastal Erosion ................................................................................ 53
San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission ................................................................................. 54
Chula Vista, California: Adaptation Planning with No Budget and No Experience ....................................................... 55
Delaware ........................................................................................................................................................................... 56
The City of Lewes: Hazard Mitigation and Climate Adaptation Action Plan ................................................................. 56
Preparing for SLR Development of a SLR Initiative ....................................................................................................... 57
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan iv
Development of a Coastal Resiliency Action Plan for Bowers Beach, DE ..................................................................... 59
Georgia .............................................................................................................................................................................. 60
SLR On GA’s Coast: A Study from the River .................................................................................................................. 60
Tybee Island .................................................................................................................................................................. 61
Louisiana ........................................................................................................................................................................... 62
Recommendations for Anticipating Sea‐Level Rise Impacts on LA Coastal Resources during Project Planning and
Design ............................................................................................................................................................................ 62
Maryland ........................................................................................................................................................................... 63
Commission on Climate Change ................................................................................................................................... 63
Maryland’s Coastal Zone Enhancement Plan: Coastal Zone Management Act Section 309 Assessment and Strategy
2011‐2015 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 64
Massachusetts................................................................................................................................................................... 65
Hazard Mitigation Plan .................................................................................................................................................. 65
New Hampshire ................................................................................................................................................................. 66
Keene, New Hampshire: The Economics of Energy Efficiency ...................................................................................... 66
New York ........................................................................................................................................................................... 67
Hazard Mitigation Plan .................................................................................................................................................. 67
North Carolina ................................................................................................................................................................... 68
Hazard Mitigation Plan .................................................................................................................................................. 68
North Carolina Sea‐Level Rise Assessment Report ....................................................................................................... 69
North Carolina DENR Climate Change Initiative Strategy Framework .......................................................................... 71
Oregon .............................................................................................................................................................................. 73
Oregon Global Warming Commission: Report to the Legislature 2011 ....................................................................... 73
South Carolina ................................................................................................................................................................... 74
Shoreline Change Initiative ........................................................................................................................................... 74
Texas ................................................................................................................................................................................. 75
Hazard Mitigation Plan .................................................................................................................................................. 75
Washington ....................................................................................................................................................................... 76
Hazard Mitigation Plan .................................................................................................................................................. 76
Preparing for a Changing Climate: Washington State’s Integrated Climate Response Strategy .................................. 77
Olympia, Washington: Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise from Climate Change ................................................................. 78
COUNTRIES.........................................................................................................................................................................................79
Australia ............................................................................................................................................................................ 79
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan v
Queensland Coastal Plan .............................................................................................................................................. 79
Canada .............................................................................................................................................................................. 80
Halifax Climate SMART: The Climate Sustainable Mitigation and Adaptation Risk Toolkit .......................................... 80
Tasmania ........................................................................................................................................................................... 81
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning for Mangrove Systems ...................................... 81
MISCELLANEOUS..............................................................................................................................................................................82
FEMA Climate Change Adaptation Policy Statement ....................................................................................................... 82
Incorporating Sea Level Change Scenarios at the Local Level .......................................................................................... 83
Protecting the Public Interest through the National Coastal Zone Management Program: How Coastal States and
Territories Use No‐Build Areas along Ocean and Great Lake Shorefronts ....................................................................... 84
An Assessment: Policy Tools for Local Adaptation to SLR ................................................................................................ 85
Adapting to Climate Change: A Planning Guide for State Coastal Managers ................................................................... 86
Increasing Community Resilience to Future Hurricane Storm Surge ................................................................................ 87
Effects of Near‐term SLR on Coastal Infrastructure .......................................................................................................... 88
Implications of Takings Law on Innovative Planning For Sea Level Rise in The Gulf of Mexico ....................................... 89
A Parameterized Climate Change Projection Model for Hurricane Flooding, Wave Action, Economic Damages, and
Population Dynamics ........................................................................................................................................................ 90
World Resources 2010‐2011: Decision Making in a Changing Climate – Adaptation Challenged and Choices ............... 91
State and Local Governments Plan for Development of Most Land Vulnerable to Rising Sea Level along the US Atlantic
Coast ................................................................................................................................................................................. 92
Hotspot of Accelerated Sea‐Level Rise on the Atlantic Coast of North America .............................................................. 93
SLRHORIZONYEARANDPROJECTIONSTABLE....................................................................................................................94
SLRPROJECTIONSGRAPH.............................................................................................................................................................95
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 1
FLORIDA:GENERALRESEARCH&PLANNING
PreparingforaSeaChangeinFloridaFlorida Coastal and Ocean Coalition
ThisreportbytheFloridaCoastalandOceanCoalitiondetailshowclimatechangecouldimpactthestate'scoastalareas,anditbroadlyoutlinespossibleadaptationsolutions.Itisintendedtoprovideguidelinesforconcrete,science‐basedactiononthecriticalissuesFloridafacesinlightofclimatechangeandtostimulateinformeddebateforthepreservationofFlorida'snaturalresources.
Fourprimarycategoriesofimpactsarediscussed:sea‐levelrise,extremeweatherevents,higheroceantemperatures,andoceanacidification.Thepotentialeffectsofsea‐levelrisearefullydescribed,includingbeacherosion,saltwaterintrusion,andthesubmersionofmarshesandcoastalproperty.Discussionsofextremeweathereventsincludeseverity,alteringwaterflows,exacerbatingrunoff,anddamagingcoastalhabitats.Foreachofthefourimpactareas,recommendationsareoutlinedforstateandlocalgovernmentresponses,includingspecificagencyactions,aswellasregionalandfederalresponses.
TheFloridaCoastalandOceanCoalitionisagroupofenvironmentalorganizationsworkingtogethertoconserve,protectandrestoreFlorida’scoastalandmarineenvironment.Memberorganizationsincludethefollowing:CaribbeanConservationCorporation,EnvironmentalDefenseFund,GulfRestorationNetwork,NaturalResourcesDefenseCouncil,NationalWildlifeFederation,OceanConservancy,ReefRelief,andtheSurfriderFoundation.
Source:http://www.flcoastalandocean.org/PreparingforaSeaChange/Climate_Change_Guide_for_Florida_Preparing_for_a_Sea_Change.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 2
Florida:PublicOpiniononClimateChange
I. LeadAgencies
a. YaleSchoolofForestryandEnvironmentalStudies
b. UniversityofMiami
c. NationalScienceFoundation
d. ColumbiaUniversityCenterforResearchonEnvironmentalDecisions
II. Projectdescription
a. ThegoalofthestudywastomeasuretheperceptionsofFloridaresidentsaboutthecausesandconsequencesofclimatechange,andaboutpotentialsolutions.Themainfindingsarepresentedinthisreportandareintendedtoaidpolicymakers,educators,theprivatesector,andenvironmentalorganizationsintheirplanningeffortsinresponsetoclimatechange.
Source:
http://environment.yale.edu/uploads/FloridaGlobalWarmingOpinion.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 3
FloridaandClimateChange:TheCostsofInaction
I. Location:TuftsUniversity
II. LeadAgencies
a. GlobalDevelopmentandenvironmentinstitute
b. Stockholmenvironmentinstitute–USCenter
III. ProjectDescription
a. Thereportisthefirstdetailedanalysisonthepotentialconsequencesofcontinuedclimatechangeforthestate’seconomy.Thereportconcludesthat,ifleftunchecked,climatechangewillsignificantlyharmFlorida’seconomyinthenextseveraldecades,andthatimpactsonjustthreesectors–tourism,electricutilities,andrealestate–togetherwitheffectsofhurricaneswouldshrinkFlorida’sGrossStateProductby5%bytheendofthiscentury.
Source:
http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/rp/Florida_hr.pdf?bcsi_scan_EAC41357C45D053C=0&bcsi_scan_f
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 4
ClimateChangeandLandUseinFlorida,InterdependenciesandOpportunities
I. LeadAgencies
a. CenturyCommissionforaSustainableFlorida
b. UF
II. ProjectDescription
a. ThisreportshowsthatlanduseandclimatechangeinFloridaaredeterministicallylinkedissues.Changesinlanduseoverthenextdecadecanadverselyaffectclimatechange,whileclimatechangeitselfwillaltertheformandfunctionofthelandscape.WithitsburgeoninggrowthFloridastandsatacrossroadswithrespecttoitsoptionsforclimatemitigationandadaptation.Failuretodevelopandimplementappropriateplansforproactiveadaptationcouldcostbillionsinlostrevenue,whileendangeringthehealthandwellbeingofourchildren,grandchildrenandbeyond.Alternatively,tremendousopportunityexistsforeconomicdevelopmentthroughlandmanagementforclimatemitigationandparticipationincarbonmarkets.Whilealladverseeffectsofglobalwarmingcannotbeavoidedthroughmitigation,proactiveadaptationcanconferresiliencetomanagedandnaturalecosystems,whilecreatingjobsandopportunitiesforenhancingthewellbeingofFloridians.
Source:
http://snre.ufl.edu/home/files/Climate%20change%20and%20land%20use%20in%20Florida%20V8‐1s.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 5
KeepingOurHeadsaboveWater:SurvivingtheChallengesofSLRinFlorida
I. LeadAgencies
a. FloridaInstituteforConservationScience
b. TheNatureConservancy
c. FloridaNativePlantSociety
d. U.S.FishandWildlifeService
e. TheJelksFamilyFoundation
f. Disney'sAnimalKingdom
II. ProjectDescription
a. TheFloridaInstituteforConservationSciencehasinitiatedaprojecttostudyandcommunicateissuesrelatedtotheimpactsof(andadaptationto)sealevelriseinFlorida.Thefirstphaseofthisprojectincludedascientificsymposium,whichwasheldJanuary18‐20,2010,atArchboldBiologicalStation.ThismeetingbroughttogetherscholarsfromseveraldisciplinestoshareinformationonsealevelriseanditsimpactsinFloridaandtodeveloprecommendationsforfurtherresearchandforchangesinpolicyandmanagement.Futurephasesofthisprojectincludetechnicalpublications,communicationswithpolicymakersandthepublic,andalargerconferencefocusedonpolicyandmanagementandinvolvingadiversityofstakeholdersanddecisionmakers.ThelatterconferenceistentativelyscheduledforAugust2010atFairchildTropicalBotanicGardeninMiami.
Source:
http://flconservationscience.org/programs/symposiums.html
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 6
SLRReady:ModelComprehensivePlanGoals,Objectives,andPoliciestoAddressSLRImpactsinFlorida
I. LeadAgencies
a. UFConservationClinic
b. FloridaSeaGrant
c. CharlotteHarborNationalEstuaryProgram
II. ProjectDescription
a. Thepurposeistopresentselectedmodelcomprehensiveplanninggoals,objectives,andpolicies(GOP's)toaddresssealevelriseadaptationinahypotheticalcity/countyinFlorida(SouthwestFlorida).
Source:www.flseagrant.org/coastalplanning/wpcontent/uploads/2012/03/sea_level_rise_Cons.Clinic_2010_v.2.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 7
Florida’sEnergyandClimateChangeActionPlan
I. PrincipleconclusionsfromtheActionTeamProcessa. Florida’sresources,communities,andeconomyareexpectedtoexperiencesignificantimpactsif
thecurrenttrajectoryofglobalgreenhousegasemissionsisnotreversedb. Earlyactionstoaddressglobalclimatechangehassignificantenergysecuritybenefitsfor
Floridians,whilepositioningthestatetobecomearegionalandhemispherichubofgreentechnologyinnovationandinvestment
c. Energyefficiency,demand‐sidemanagement,andenergyconservationpresentfloridawithnumerousopportunitiestoreduceenergycosts,increasethebuyingpowerofFlorida’sfamilies,andmakethestate’sbusinesssectormorecost‐competitiveintheglobalmarket
d. Investmentstodayinlow‐carbonenergysourceswillstimulateFlorida’seconomyandredirectcurrentexpendituresonimportedfossilfuelstowardFlorida‐basedenergysourcesretainingsignificantflowsofmoneywithinlocaleconomies
e. Market‐orientedregulations–manyalreadyauthorizedinFloridalaw–willefficientlyguidealow‐carboneconomywhileprotectingenergyconsumers,maintainingFlorida’sagriculturalcompetitiveness,andbuildingmoresustainablecommunities
II. Phase2a. Provides50separatepolicyrecommendations,plusanadditionalsetofcommentstowardthe
currentregulatoryworktodevelopFlorida’scap‐and‐tradeprogramtoreduceharmfulgreenhousegasemissions
b. ThetotalnetcostsavingsofallActionTeamrecommendationscombinedismorethan$28billionfrom2009‐2025
c. Theactionteamrecommends50policyactionsrelatingto:i. Energysupplyanddemandii. Transportationandlanduseiii. Agriculture,forestry,andwastemanagementiv. Governmentpolicyandcoordinationv. Adaptationstrategiesassociatedwithclimatechange
Source:http://www.flclimatechange.us/ewebeditpro/items/O12F20136.PDF
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 8
ClimateChangeinCoastalAreasinFlorida:SeaLevelRiseEstimations&EconomicAnalysistoYear2080
Funded by National Commission on Energy Policy and Reported by FSU
InthisreporttheresultsofdownscaledmodelingeffortsoftheeffectofsealevelriseonsixcoastalcountiesinFloridaarepresented,including:Dade,Dixie,Duval,Escambia,MonroeandWakullacounties.Additionally,assessmentsofthepotentialeconomicimpactsthatthisphenomenoncouldhavearepresented.Usingrepresentativestorms,estimatesareprovidedofthedamagethatcouldbeinflictedfromstormsurgeandflooding,bothofwhichwillbecomemoreintenseandmorefrequentasaconsequenceofclimatechange.Thevalueofthelandthatwillbeaffectedbytheseintensifiedeventswasusedtoprovidethebasisfortheeconomicassessment.
Thisisthescientificassessmentreportthatsupportsthesynthesizedbrief"ClimateChangeinCoastalFlorida‐EconomicImpactsofSea‐LevelRise,"publishedbytheNationalCommissiononEnergyPolicy.
Source:http://www.manatee.wateratlas.usf.edu/upload/documents/FSU%208%2014%202008%20final.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 9
FloridaDepartmentofTransportationDevelopment of a Methodology for the Assessment of Sea Level Rise Impacts on Florida’s Transportation
Modes and Infrastructure
ThepurposeofthisreportistoprovideamethodologyforassessingtheimpactsofSLRonFLtransportationinfrastructureforplanningpurposes.ResearchwasconductedbyFAUbyaDOTgrant.ScopeoftheprojectincludesasummaryofglobalandstateobservationsandprojectionsofSLR,adiscussionofthemethodologyusedindevelopingconsensusonSLRinSoutheastFL,arecommendedmethodologyforprojectingSLRinFL,andidentifyingpotentiallyvulnerableinfrastructure,globaltoregionaldownscalingapproaches,anddatagapsinexistingSLRscientificknowledge.
I. Methodology
a. FAUrecommendsusingtheUSArmyCorpsofEngineers(USACE)guidanceforforecastingSLRinFL
b. Considersscenariosofpossiblefutureratesofmeansealevelchangeovervariousplanninghorizons
c. IncludesmapsfromPortEverglades,DaniaBeach,andothers
II. SEFLRegionalClimateChangeCompactConsensusProjections
a. PlanningHorizon:
i. 2030=3‐7SLRininches(low‐high)
ii. 2060=9‐24SLRininches
III. FAUResearchtechniques
a. FAUusedtheWeissOverpeck1‐meterSLRprojectionforFLtoillustrateadownscalingtechniquedevelopedtoidentifypotentiallyvulnerabletransportationinfrastructure
b. FAUresearchersappliedtheevaluationtechniquestoDaniaBeach,PuntaGorda,andKeyLargo,FL.
c. ResearchincludesadiscussionofthepotentialimpactsofSLRtotransportationinfrastructure,includingdrainage,roadwaybase,andsurfacewaterimpacts,andasummaryofadaptationstrategiesandtools
d. SLEgenerallyuseSatellitealtimetryandtidaldata
e. TwomaintypesofdatausedforlandanalysisinSLRstudiesareLiDARandcontourDEMs(DigitalElevationModel)
IV. Short‐termrecommendedactions
a. DevelopingasketchplanningtooltoapplytheUSACEmethodologytoproducestatewideandregionalprojectionsofSLRanddownscalingtechniquestoidentifyandassesspotentiallyvulnerableinfrastructure
i. Downscalingevaluationapproach=4stepprocess
ii. StateSLRprojections
1. IntegrationofFDOTstateroadwaydataandStateSLRProjectionsfortheyears2030,2060,and2100usingUSACEmethodology
2. Preliminaryidentificationofstateroadsegmentspotentiallyvulnerabletoa3ftofSLR
3. Creationofinventoryofpotentiallyvulnerablestateroadways
iii. RegionalSLRprojections
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 10
1. Evaluateroadwayswithmoredetailedtopographicinformation
2. IntegrationofregionalFDOTstateroadwaysdataandlowresolutionLiDARdata
3. Evaluationofcurrentandyear2100topographicconditions
4. IdentificationofspecificroadwaysectionspotentiallyvulnerabletoSLR
iv. LocalizedSLRprojections
1. IntegrationofregionalFDOTstateroadwaysdataandhighresolutionLiDARdata
2. Evaluationofyear2100topographicalconditionsofspecificroadwaylinks/identificationofspecificroadwaysectionspotentiallyvulnerabletoSLR
v. OnTheGround(OTG)evaluation
1. Verificationofvulnerabilityusingconstructiondrawings&surveydata
V. Long‐termrecommendedactions
a. Developingano‐regretsandgradualadaptivemanagementstrategyintransportationplanningandintegratingSLRprojectionswithgroundwater,surfacewater,andstormsurgemodelstobetterassessthevulnerabilitiesoftransportationmodesandinfrastructure
VI. DataGaps
a. Datatounderstandlandformsandwhereandhowwaterwillflow
b. Monitoringdataandenvironmentaldrivers
c. ConsistentSLRscenariosandprojectionsacrossagenciestosupportlocalplanning
d. DatatocharacterizevulnerabilitiesandimpactsofSLR
e. Communitycharacteristics–dataondemographics,societalvulnerabilities,economicactivity,publicattitudesandunderstandingofrisks,etc
f. Legalframeworkandadministrativestructure
VII. Toolsneededforadaptationandplanningoftransportationinfrastructure
a. Communicationtoolsforstakeholderengagement,visioning,andconsensusbuilding
b. ToolstomonitorandmodelcurrentandfutureratesofSLR
c. Visualizationandscenario‐buildingtools
d. Implementationtoolstobuildinstitutionalcapacityandimplementadaptationplans
e. Interagencycoordinationonresearch,policyagendas,andfundingareneededtoprovidethepackageofdata,tools,andprocesses
f. Regionalcoordinationoftransportationplanning
g. GISmapsastoolstoidentifyinfrastructurepotentiallyatriskfromSLR
Source:
http://www.dot.state.fl.us/research‐center/Completed_Proj/Summary_PL/FDOT_BDK79_977‐01_rpt.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 11
AdaptiveResponsePlanningtoSeaLevelRiseinFloridaandImplicationsforComprehensiveandPublic‐FacilitiesPlanning
I. Background
a. WewillexperienceSLRforcenturiesifnotmillenniabecauseofthelaginachievingtemperatureequilibriumbetweentheatmosphereandtheoceans
b. ThelongtimescalesofSLRsuggestthatcoastalmanagement,includingspatialplanning,needstotakealong‐termviewonadaptationtoSLRandclimatechange,especiallywithlong‐lifeinfrastructure
c. Areasthatarenotbuildoutarewhereotheroptions(besidesprotections)maybefeasible
d. RecentlypublishedprojectionsofSLRby2100relativetoapproximately1990rangefromlessthan1foottomorethan15feet
i. Basedonanalysisofcurrenttrendsorderivedfromanarrayofscenariosandmodelprojectionsbuildondifferentassumptionsaboutfuturegreenhousegasemissions
II. PurposeandFocus
a. FocusonimplicationsofSLRonplanningandmanagementof3majorelementsoflocalinfrastructure
i. Watersupplysystemsthatdrawfromaquifersorsurfacewatersclosetothecoast
ii. Centralizedwastewatermanagementsystemslocatedinlow‐lyingareasnearthecoast,includingthosewithsurfacewaterdischargesoftreatedwastewater
iii. Highways,bridges,andcausewaysincoastalareas
b. Interestwiththestateofadaptiveresponseplanningforsuchinfrastructure
III. RegionalConsideration
a. Differencesinbothrelativeandeustaticsealevelobservations
b. LocallandsubsidenceorupliftareprimarilyresponsiblefordifferencesinobservedSL
c. Regionalvariationsinwindpatternsandoceancurrents,aswellasseawatertemperature,salinity,anddensity,alsomayaffectobservedratesofeustaticSLR
IV. PotentialImpacts
a. 4majorimpacts
i. Inundationandshorelinerecession
ii. Increasedfloodingfromsevereweatherevents
iii. Saltwatercontaminationofgroundwaterandsurfacewatersupplies
iv. Elevatedcoastalgroundwatertables
b. Fora1‐footriseinSL,theshorewillrecedeby50‐100feet
c. Infrastructurethatliesinthepathofshorelinerecessionmaybeadverselyaffectedinseveralways
i. Intermittentfloodingfromspringtides
ii. Scouringandunderminingofabove‐groundfacilities,roadbases,andbridgeabutments
iii. Interferewithnavigationunderbridgesandmayincreasetheexposureofbridgestosaltwaterspraywithresultantincreasesinspallingofconcreteandmorerapidcorrosionofsteelbridgecomponentsandrebarinolderbridges
iv. Asfloodzonesshifthigherandfurtherlandward,facilitiespreviouslysitedinwhatwereconsideredtobesafezones,mayexperiencefloodsformerlyclassifiedas100‐yearevents
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 12
v. Structuresdesignedtowithstandtheforceofstormwavesandmovingfloodwatersofagivenintensitywillbemorelikelytobesubjectedtostrongerforces
V. Adaptiveresponseoptions
a. 3categories:protection,retreat,andaccommodation
i. HighlydevelopedcoastlineswillbeprotectedfromSLRwithacombinationofhardandsoftengineeringmeasures
b. Protection
i. Thephysicalmeasuresthatcanbeusedtoprotectdevelopedareasfromerosionandinundationincludeconstructionoffloodprotectionworks,beachnourishment,dunebuilding,andmarshbuilding
c. Retreat
i. “rollingeasement”underwhichhumanactivitiesarerequiredtoyieldtherightofwaytonaturallymigratingshorelines
ii. FLlawempowersthestateDEPtorequiretheadjustment,alteration,orremovalofanystructurethatintrudesontosovereigntylandsofthestatebelowthemeanhighwaterlineofanytidalwaterbody
1. Theagencyhasrarely,ifever,invokedthisauthority
iii. Questionofwhattodowithinfrastructurethreatenedbyinundationandshorelinerecession
d. Accommodation
i. SLRcanbeaccommodatedovertheshorttermbyelevatingstructuresand/orthelanduponwhichtheyarebuilt
ii. Longer‐termSLEaccommodationwillrequiredirectingnewdevelopmentawayfromareasthatareanticipatedtobeaffectedbyinundation,shorelinerecession,andadvancingcoastalfloodboundaries
1. Setbacks
iii. Prohibitdevelopmentinlargerhazardzonesthatareandwillbesusceptibletobothshorelineandcoastalstormflooding
VI. Statepolicies
a. 35stateshavepreparedorareintheprocessofpreparingclimateactionplansconcernedwithmitigatinggreenhousegasemissions
b. 6states(AZ,CA,MD,NC,OR,andWA)explicitlydoorwilladdressclimatechangeadaptationinthoseplans
VII. FLPlanning/PolicyFindings
a. Therearenoexplicitrequirementsthatstate,regional,orlocalplanningentitiesaddressSLRinlanduseorinfrastructureplanning
b. StatutoryplanningtimeframesaregenerallytooshorttodirectlyencompassSLRimpacts
c. ThereareprovisionswithintheseplanningframeworksthatofferappropriatecontextswithinwhichSLRadaptiveresponseplanningcouldbeaddressed
Source:
http://www.coss.fsu.edu/durp/sites/coss.fsu.edu.durp/files/WPS_08_02_Deyle.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 13
InitialEstimatesoftheEcologicalandEconomicConsequencesofSeaLevelRiseontheFloridaKeysthroughtheyear2100
I. Method
a. FutureshorelinelocationsanddistributionsofmajorhabitatsofBigPineKeyintheyear2100wereestimatedusingsealevelrisescenariosdescribedinthescientificliterature
b. Ineveryscenariotheislandbecamesmaller,marineandintertidalhabitatmovesupslopeattheexpenseofuplandhabitat,andpropertyvaluesarediminished;Inundationwoulddisplacenativespeciesdependentonuplandhabitatandthreatenproperty
c. UseofLIDARandSLAMM
d. Scenarios
i. 1:18cm,best‐case:$11billioninpropertyvalueand58,800acresareatriskofinundation
ii. 2:35cm
iii. 3:59cm
iv. 4:100cm
v. 5:140cm
II. Results/recommendations
a. Needtoidentifylong‐termimpactsofSLRontheFLkeysandtobegintakingnear‐termstepstominimizethenegativeconsequencesofthoseimpacts
b. Approachforprotectingnaturalareasandecosystems
i. Identificationof“coreareas”withthebestchancesofpersistenceduringSLR
ii. Intensivemanagementofcoreareastominimizelossofbiodiversity
iii. En‐situconservation,includingrelocationofvulnerablespeciestolessvulnerableareas
c. Identifyingcoreareas
i. Elevation
ii. Representation
iii. Replication
iv. Connectivity
v. Effectivemanagement
III. “Noregrets”strategyformanagingFloridaKeysnaturalareasforSLR
a. Firemanagement
i. SLRisexpectedtoaccelerateforestsuccession,andthecarefulapplicationofprescribedfireistheonlyeconomicallyviableandecologicallyappropriateantidotetothatsuccession
b. Invasiveexoticspeciesmanagement
c. Wetlandrestoration
i. Filingorpluggingditchesmaybeessentialtopreventunnaturallyrapidinfiltrationofinteriorwetland,transitional,anduplandhabitatsbysaltwater
ii. Restoringhydrologicalconnectivitybyremovingobsoleteroadbedsandinstallingculvertsunderfunctionalroads
Source:http://frrp.org/SLR%20documents/FINAL%20‐%20Aug%2021%20‐WITH%20COVER.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 14
ClimateChangeandtheFLKeys
I. LeadAgencies
a. NOAA
b. SocioeconomicResearchandMonitoringProgram
c. FloridaKeysNationalMarineSanctuaryProgram
II. ProjectDescription
a. Thestudyprovidesalternativeestimates,usingscenario‐planningtechniques,ofthemedium‐andlong‐termsocioeconomiceffectsthatmayarisefromclimatechangeintheFloridaKeys.Theresearchersusedfourglobalscenariosfroma2000reportbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC);however,thescenariosfortheKeyswereupdatedbasedonscientificdevelopmentssince2000.ProjectionsfortheKeysweredevelopedforeachscenariolookingatpopulationtrends,income,remainingland,coralcover,andtotalincome.Aseriesofpolicyrecommendationsareincludedattheconclusionofthereport.
Source:http://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/science/socioeconomic/floridakeys/climate_change/welcome.html
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 15
ComprehensiveEvergladesRestorationPlan
I. Predictionsa. Modelsestimatethatsealevelcouldriseby3‐5feetwhichcouldjeopardizeanestimated13.5
millionpeoplethatlivewithin25milesofshorelineII. LeadAgencies
a. USArmyCorpsofEngineersb. SouthFloridaWaterManagementDistrict
III. CERPa. Outlinesaframeworktoguidetherestoration,protection,andpreservationofthewaterresources
ofcentralandsouthernFloridab. OneofthemaingoalsofCERPistoredirect1.7billiongallonsoffreshwateradayintotheareas
thatneeditthemost,suchastheEvergladesc. ApprovedbyCongressandawarded$7.8billiondollarsoffundingforprojects.
IV. Purposea. CERPClimateChangeTeamwascreatedwithavisionto“minimizefuturenegativeimpactsand
adaptationcosts…[bycollaborating]toquicklyidentifyclimatechangesensitivitiesinnaturalareasanddevelopedareas”inordertocreateandimplementadaptationpoliciesby2015.
b. CERPPartnersareprovidingvarioustoolsandinformationtocreatesealevelriseguidancefortheeverglades
V. Outcomesa. UsingtheCERPframeworktobegintoadapttotheeffectsofclimatechangemayholdpromise
becausefederal,state,andlocalpartnershipshavealreadybeenestablishedandthereisapre‐establishedsourceoffundingforfutureprojects.
Source:http://www.evergladesplan.org/
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 16
ParticipatoryScenarioPlanningforClimateChangeinSouthernFlorida’sGreaterEvergladesLandscape
I. Location:MIT
II. Leadagencies:
a. U.S.FishandWildlifeService
b. U.S.GelogicalSurvey
III. ProjectDescription
a. Projectdevelopedasetofspatially‐articulatepotentialfuturelandusemapsthatallowstheexplorationoftheinteractionbetweenglobalclimatechange,humanpopulationsettlementpreferences,andstateandlocalpolicies.Inparticular,onecanbegintojudgetheeffectivenessofcurrentconservationstrategiesagainstalandscapeinwhichpeople‐aswellasspecies‐arelikelytorelocateinresponsetoclimatechange.
Source:
http://training.fws.gov/CSP/Resources/climate_change/resources.html
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 17
ClimateChangeActionPlanfortheFloridaReefSystem2010‐2015
I. Purposea. Theactionplanisintendedtoguidecoordinationofreefmanagementacrossmanyjurisdictions
andserveasamoredetailed,Florida‐specificcompaniontotheclimatechangegoalandobjectivesin“NOAACoralReefConservationProgramGoalsandObjectives2010‐2015”
b. 3maingoals:increaseresiliencythroughactivemanagement,enhancecommunicationandawareness,andconducttargetedresearch.
c. Identifieswaystoincreasereefresiliencytoclimatechangeandminimizenegativeimpactsonreef‐dependentindustriessuchasdivingandsnorkelingtourism,andcommercialandrecreationalfishing
d. Outlinesaholistic,adaptablefive‐yearprogramthatFlorida’sreefmanagerscanundertakeincollaborationwithreefusersandotherstakeholderstominimizethedamageandassociatedimpactsofclimatechange.Itisintendedtobeadoptedandupdatedatleasteveryfiveyears.
II. ToptenpriorityclimatechangeactionsfortheFloridareefsystema. Improveregulationsandmanagementthatfacilitateadaptationtoclimatechangeandocean
acidificationb. Developandimplementamarinezoningplanthatincorporatedresilience‐basedconceptsc. IntegrateclimatechangepredictionsanduncertaintiesintoFlorida’scomprehensiveplanninglaws
andproceduresd. ContinueandexpandtheFRRPdisturbanceresponsemonitoringe. Decreasethelikelihoodofnegativefishing,diving,andotherreefuseimpactsbyincreasinglaw
enforcementpresenceandregulatorycompliancef. Developscientificclimatechangefactsheetsg. Forecastthepotentialsocialandeconomiceffectsofclimatechangeonreef‐dependentindustries
andcommunitiestomeasuretheirvulnerabilityandresilienceanddeterminecost‐to‐benefitratiosofanyproposedclimatechangemitigation/adaptationmeasures
h. Increaseawarenessi. Monitorenvironmentalvariableslinkedtocoralbleachingandotherclimatechangeimpactsj. DevelopscientificmodelsoftheFloridareefsystemtohelppredictitsresponsetophysical,
chemical,andsocio‐economicshiftsassociatedwithclimatechange
Source:http://www.frrp.org/SLR%20documents/FL%20Reef%20Action%20Plan‐WEB.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 18
EcologicalEffectsofSLRintheFloridaPanhandleandCoastalAlabama
I. Intendedpurpose:
a. ImprovescientificunderstandingofthefactorsandscalesnecessarytoevaluateshorezonemodificationandhelpdevelopapredictivetoolofecosystemmodificationduetoSLR
II. ProjectBackground
a. PilotEESLRprojectbeganinNCin2005
III. ProjectImplementation
a. WorkshopwasheldinJanuary2008
b. 5groups
i. Geomorphologyandphysicalprocesses
ii. Subtidalhabitats
iii. Terrestrialbiologicalresources
iv. Waterqualityandhydrology
v. Modeling
IV. Generalstrategicrecommendations
a. Performtargetedstudiesofbiologicalandphysiologicaltolerancestochange
b. Utilizehistoricalunderstandingofcommunityretreat
c. Improveunderstandingofbenthic,nearshore,andupstreamhabitatconnectivity
d. Improveunderstandingofthepresentandfuturedistributionofhabitatsandtheabilityofspeciestomigrate
e. Usestandardizedparameterstohelpdrivemodels
f. Ensureadequatetimescalessothattimescalesofconcernforecologicaleffectsareaslongasthetimescalesforplanningcriticalinfrastructure
V. Projectoutcomesandconclusions
a. UserelevantscientificdatatodeterminethefactorsandscalesnecessarytoevaluateshorezonemodificationanddevelopapredictivetoolofecosystemmodificationduetoSLR
Source:http://www.cop.noaa.gov/stressors/climatechange/features/SLRWhitePaper3‐09.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 19
RetrospectiveandProspectiveModelSimulationsofSLRImpactsonGulfofMexico CoastalMarshesandForestsinWaccasassaBay,Florida
I. StudyPurpose
a. Floridahasextensivelowelevationcoastalhabitats
b. SLAMMsimulationtoimproveunderstandingofthemagnitudeandlocationofthesechangesfor58,000haoftheWaccasassaBayregionofFlorida’scentralGulfofMexicocoast
c. ProspectiverunsofSLAMMusing.64m,1m,and2mSLRscenariospredictsubstantialchangesoverthiscenturyintheareacoveredbycoastalwetlandsystemsincludingnetlossesofcoastalforests(69%,83%,and99%),inlandforests(33%,50%,and88%),butnetgainsoftidalflats(17%,142%,and3,837%)
II. Background
a. The4primaryprocessesusedtopredictwetlandfatewithSLRareinundation,erosion,overwash,andsaturation
b. ConductedbothretrospectiveandprospectiveSLAMManalysesforanapproximately58,000haareasurroundingandincludingWaccasassaBayPreserveStateParkintheBigBendregionofFlorida
c. CompareresultsofSLAMMhindcastwiththosefromdatafrom13permanentplotsmonitoredsince1992
III. Results
a. Implicationfromfindingsatthesitelevelisthatundeveloped,unprotected,landsinlandfromthecoastalforestshouldbeprotectedtoaccommodateupslopemigrationofthisnaturalcommunityinresponsetorisingseas
b. ResultsfromSLAMMhindcastagreewithfieldobservationsoftheeffectsofSLRonthestudyareaalongtheGulfcoastofFlorida
c. 30%ofthecoastalforestwasadjustedtosaltmarshinthemodelbasedontheelevationinputlayer–inactualitynotreallynoticeableinsomecasesyet
d. Modelpredictscommunitycompositionwhenwetlandshavecometoequilibriumwithagivensealevel,meaningthatitwillnotaccuratelypredictshort‐termtransitionaleffects
e. SLAMMalsopredictedhigherconversionofcoastalforestintosaltmarshthanpredictedbyCastanedaandPutz
Source:
http://coaps.fsu.edu/~mhannion/Geselbracht.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 20
BurstingtheBubbleofDoomandAdaptingtoSLR
I. LeadAgencies
a. RWPaskinsnConsulting,Inc.
b. FSU
c. TimothyDixon
d. ReedNoss
e. AnthonyOliver‐Smith
f. FrancisPutz
g. ThomasRuppert
h. KennethEdwardSassaman
i. MichaelVolk
II. ProjectDescription
a. Thereportdiscussestheadaptivemanagementprocessthatspecifiesoneormoreessentialactionsnecessarytoreducethevulnerabilityofbuiltandnaturalenvironmentstorisingseas.
Source:http://www.spacecoastclimatechange.com/documents/resources/Bursting_the_Bubble_of_Doom_and_Adapting_to_slr.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 21
IntegratedModelingfortheAssessmentofEcologicalImpactsofSLR
I. LeadAgencies
a. UCF
b. Dewberry,Inc.
c. NorthwestFloridaWaterManagementDistrict
d. FloridaStateUniversity
e. UniversityofFlorida
f. UniversityofSouthCarolina
g. NOAA
II. ProjectDescription
a. Thestudyteam,ledbyScottHagen,Ph.D.,oftheUniversityofCentralFlorida,willdevelopsealevelrisecomputermodelstopredicttheimpactsstormsandrisingwaterposetothenorthernGulf’scoastline,includingshorelineandbarrierislanderosion.Theresultsofthestudywillbeincorporatedintocoastalecosystemplanningforrestorationeffortsandothernaturalresourcemanagementdecisionsintheregion.Itmayalsohelpoilspillrespondersbetterunderstandoilthatmayresideinthesubsidedecosystems.
Source:http://www.cop.noaa.gov/stressors/climatechange/current/slr/abstracts.aspx
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 22
EffectsofClimateChangeonFlorida’sOceanandCoastalResourcesA Special Report to the Florida Energy and Climate Commission and the People of Florida
TheFloridaOceansandCoastalCouncilpreparedthisreportin2009toprovideafoundationforfuturediscussionsoftheeffectsofglobalclimatechangeonFlorida'soceanandcoastalresources,andtoinformFloridiansaboutthecurrentstateofscientificknowledgeregardingclimatechange.Thereportprovidesahigh‐leveloverviewoftheimpactstoinfrastructure,humanhealthandtheeconomy,aswellaskeydriverssuchasincreasingairtemperatures,warmingoceantemperatures,andsealevelrise.Foreachdriver,effectssuchasalteredseverityandfrequencyofhurricanesandprecipitationpatterns,arediscussedintermsofprobableandpossibleoutcomes.ResearchprioritiesfortheCouncilthatsupporttheimpactsandeffectsidentifiedareoutlined.
Thereportismeanttoprovideimportantandeasytounderstandinformationforlegislators,policymakers,governmentalagencies,andmembersofthepublicwhoareworkingtoaddress,orwhoareinterestedin,issuesrelatedtoclimatechangeinFlorida.
Source:
http://www.floridaoceanscouncil.org/reports/
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 23
AssessmentofRedefiningFlorida’sCoastalHighHazardArea
I. Purposea. Thisreportexamineshowthe2006legislativechangetocoastalhighhazardarea(CHHA)policies
introducedbyHB1359,changedtheCHHAboundariesandmayimpactresiliencyandlanddevelopmentinFlorida’scoastalcommunities
b. ThefocusofthisreportistoassesstheimpactofthenewboundarydefinitionfortheCHHAc. Thepolicycasestudyalsoraisesseriousquestionsabouttheroleofscienceandplanninganalysis
inthepolicyformulationprocess.II. Background
a. NewlanguageHB1359:thecoastalhighhazardareaistheareabelowtheelevationofthecategory1stormsurgelineisestablishedbyaSLOSHcomputerizedstormsurgemodel.
III. Methodologya. ResearchisbasedonFlorida’sthreetreasurecoastcountiesb. PartII:providesabriefsummaryoftheCHHAregulations,criticismsraisedbyopponents,andthe
controversythatspurreditsre‐examinationc. PartIII:summarizestheGISmethodologyandthequalitativedatausedintheassessmentofthe
impactofthenewboundarydelineationsinthethreetreasurecoastcountiesofMartin,St.Lucie,andIndianRiver
d. PartIV:presentsfindingsfollowedbytheresearchconclusions,whichframetheanalysisinthecontextofmaintainingandimprovingcommunityresiliencytohurricanesandintermsofitspotentialtoencourageadditionallanddevelopment
e. PartV:presentsadiscussionoftheevolvingCHHApolicy,whywebelieveHB1359representsachangeinpolicydirection,andquestionstheadoptionoftheSLOSHcategory1criterion
IV. Findingsa. ThenewdefinitionbasedontheSLOSHmodelforacategory1hurricaneredefinesthespatial
geographyofthezoneinwaysthatmaycompromiseresiliencyi. ItwouldremoveCHHAregulationsfromsomeofthemostvulnerablecoastallands,
specificallycoastalareasadjacenttotheocean,withtheevacuationzone,butsituatedathigherbaseelevations
ii. Itaddslandthatiszonesforconservationorrecreationuseandwhichisalreadyprotectedfromimprudentdevelopmentbyitszoningdesignationsandwetlandregulations
iii. Changeinboundariesmightkindleredevelopmentactivityof“soft‐sites”asseveralkeyparcelsanddesirableneighborhoodswillbecomeeligibleforupzoningreconsideration
b. Themoststrikingdifferencebetweenthetwoboundarydefinitionsistheshapeoftheregulatedarea.ThenewCHHAistopographicallybasedandthusincludespartsofthiscoastalstripthatarebelowthestormsurgelevel,butexcludesareasofhigherelevationdespiteproximitytotheoceanorintercoastalwaterway.ThereforetheCHHAisnolongeracontiguousblanketedarea,butratherresembles“swisscheese”wherelandsabovethetopographiclevelofthestormsurgeforacategory1stormareremovedfromtheCHHAzone
V. Recommendationsa. Thetimehascometoholisticallyconsidertheenvironmental,hazardmitigation,landuse,and
economicdevelopmentissuesrelatedtocoastalplanningb. Intermsofthecoastalhighhazardarea,itshouldbebroadenedtoembracediverseaspectsof
naturalhazardmitigation.Definedataregionalscalethroughacoastalsectorplanthatreflectsvariabilityoflocalgeo‐morphologyansocio‐politicallinkagesamongneighboringjurisdictions
c. TheCHHAregulationoughttobereexaminedandperhapsnewlanguageshouldbedevelopedthatrevisitsthepurposeandobjectivesoftheCHHAholistically
Source:http://docs.cdsi.fau.edu/cues/CHHAFINALREPORT‐MAY212008.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 24
Florida’sResilientCoasts:AStatePolicyFrameworkforAdaptationtoClimateChange
I. LeadAgencies
a. FAU
b. CenterforUrbanandEnvironmentalSolution
c. NationalCommissiononEnergyPolicy
II. ProjectDescription
a. TheprojectpresentsacomprehensivepolicyframeworkwhichwillassistFloridastategovernment1)inassessingthelikelyimpactsofclimatechangeonitscoastalregionsandcommunitiesandthen2)developingandadoptingpoliciesandprogramsthatwillenablethestate,itscommunities,anditsresidentstoadapttoandadaptivelymanagethoseimpactsoverthenearandlongterm.
Source:
www.communicationsmgr.com/projects/1349/docs/FAUResilientCoasts.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 25
FLORIDACITIES
CityofPuntaGordaAdaptationplan
I. Location:CityofPuntaGorda
II. LeadAgencies
a. CharlotteHarborNationalEstuaryProgram
b. SouthwestFloridaRegionalPlanningCouncil
III. ProjectDescription
a. ThisreportidentifiesthealternativeadaptationsthatcouldbeundertakentoaddresstheidentifiedclimatechangevulnerabilitiesfortheCityofPuntaGorda.Theseadaptationsarepresentedintheorderofprioritizedagreementfromthepublicmeetings.Onlythehighestagreementadaptationineachvulnerabilityareaisfullydevelopedforpotentialimplementation.Oneoftheutilitiesofthisapproachisthatitprovidesavarietyofadaptationoptions,whichtheCitycouldselectforimplementation,adaptivemanagement,andsubsequentmonitoring.
Source:
http://www.georgetownclimate.org/resources/city‐of‐punta‐gorda‐adaptation‐plan
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 26
CityofSatelliteBeachMunicipal Adaptation to Sea‐Level Rise
I. ProjectPurpose
a. Inthefallof2009,theCityofSatelliteBeach,Florida,authorizedaprojectdesignedto:
i. Assessmunicipalvulnerabilitytorisingsealevel
ii. Initiatetheplanningprocesstoproperlymitigateimpacts
II. Facts
a. Highprecisionsatellitealtimetersindicatesealevelhasbeenrisingat3.3+/‐0.4mmperyear
b. Threebasicoptioninrespondingtosea‐levelrise
i. Protect
ii. Retreat
iii. Accommodate
c. Resultsindicateabout5%oftheCitylandscapewillsubmergeduringtheinitial+2ftrise,withinundationgenerallyrestrictedtofringingwetlandsandfingercanalmarginsproximaltotheBananaRiver
d. The“tippingpoint”towardscatastrophicinundationis+2ft,forecasttooccuraround2050.
e. TheCityhasabout40yearstoformulateanimplementamitigationplan
III. Methodology
a. Bathtubmodel–baseduponthefloodingofstaticterrain
b. Notaseriousweaknessbecause:
i. Projectdesignedasapilotprogramtoprovidebase‐line
ii. Likelymagnitudeofgeomorphicchangewouldnotbesignificant
iii. Presenceofextensivecoastalarmoringalongmunicipalshorelines
IV. Adaptivemanagement
a. On‐goinganditerativeprocessthatspecifiesoneormoreessentialactionsnecessarytoreducethevulnerabilitytorisingseas
V. Initialsteps
a. ComprehensivePlanningAdvisoryBoardapprovedaseriesofupdatesandrevisionstotheCity’sCompPlan
i. Ifapproved,theamendmentswillprovidealegalbasisforimplementinganadaptivemanagementplanandspecificactionsdesignedtomitigatetheCity’svulnerabilitytosea‐levelrise
VI. Threesteps
a. Developmentofa3‐Dmodelor“basemap”oftheCity
b. Compilationandmappingof“criticalinfrastructureandassets”
c. QuantificationoftheextenttowhichtheCityanditscriticalassetswouldbeinundatedbysea‐levelrise
Source:
http://spacecoastclimatechange.com/documents/100730_CSB_CRE_Final_Report.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 27
MunicipalAdaptationtoSLR–SatelliteBeach
I. Location:SatelliteBeach
II. LeadAgencies
a. RWParkinsonConsulting,Inc
III. ProjectDescription
a. Inthefallof2009,theCityofSatelliteBeach,Florida,authorizedaprojectdesignedto:assessmunicipalvulnerabilitytorisingsealevelandinitiatetheplanningprocesstoproperlymitigateimpacts.
IV. IntegrationintoLocalPlanFramework
a. ComprehensivePlanningAdvisoryBoardtoapproveaseriesofupdatesandrevisionstotheCity’sCompPlan.Ifapproved,theamendmentswillprovidealegalbasisforimplementinganadaptivemanagementplanandspecificactionsdesignedtomitigatetheCity’svulnerabilitytosea‐levelrise
V. Methodology/Predictions
a. Planusesthebathtubmodel,baseduponthefloodingofstaticterrain.Highprecisionsatellitealtimetersindicatesealevelhasbeenrisingat3.3+/‐0.4mmperyear.Resultsindicateabout5%oftheCitylandscapewillsubmergeduringtheinitial+2ftrise,withinundationgenerallyrestrictedtofringingwetlandsandfingercanalmarginsproximaltotheBananaRiver.The“tippingpoint”towardscatastrophicinundationis+2ft,forecasttooccuraround2050.
VI. Project/Actions/Conclusions
a. TheCityhasabout40yearstoformulateanimplementamitigationplan
Source:http://spacecoastclimatechange.com/documents/100730_CSB_CRE_Final_Report.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 28
Yankeetown,FLCoastal Forests Retreat
I. UFresearch
a. InvestigatingcoastalforestdeclineandreplacementbysaltmarshinYankeetownsincemid‐1990s
b. Results:consequenceofchronicstressesofSLRcoupledwiththepunctuateddisturbancesofstormsanddroughts
i. Saltistheprimaryculprit
II. Salt
a. Healthanddiversityoftheriversideforestsistestimonytooccasionalcleansingbyfreshwater
b. Greenhouseexperimentsinvolvingpottedplantsgrowninsaltsolutionsincolorfulplasticswimmingpoolsconfirmedtherankingoftreespecies’salttoleranceobservedinthefield
i. Salttoleranceincreasewithtreesize
c. Forsalt‐sensitivespecies,eventheoccasionalseasurge,especiallyiffollowedbydryconditions,canbefatal
III. Importanttorememberthattheforestsarebeingreplacedbysaltmarshes,whichhavetheirownvirtues
Source:http://people.biology.ufl.edu/fep/SeaLevelRiseFlorida2012inThePalmetto.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 29
FLORIDA COUNTIES & REGIONS
LeeCountyClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment
I. FiveFutureScenariosfor2100
a. Aconditionthatinvolvesafutureinwhichmitigativeactionsareundertakentoreducethehumaninfluenceonclimatechange
b. A90%probablefuturepredictedbytheintergovernmentalpanelonclimatechange
c. A50%probablefuturepredictedbyIPCC
d. A5%probablefuturepredictedbyIPCC
e. A“veryworst”futureinwhichnoactionsaretakentoaddressclimatechange
II. Reportassessessignificantpotentialclimate‐relatedchangesinairandwaterandtheeffectsofthosechangesonclimatestability,sealevel,hydrology,geomorphology,naturalhabitatsandspecies,landusechanges,economy,humanhealth,humaninfrastructure,andvariableriskprojections
III. Prioritizedrankingforclimatechangevulnerabilities
a. Alteredhydrology
b. Climateinstability/stormseverity
c. Habitatandspecieschanges
d. Geomorphic(landform)changes
e. Sealevelriseandwatertemperatureandchemistrychanges
f. Infrastructureimpactsandlandusechanges
g. Airtemperaturesandchemistrychangesandhumanhealth
h. Humaneconomy
i. Variablerisk
IV. 5majorstressorsofclimatechange
a. Changesintheratioofatmosphericgases
b. Changesinairtemperatureandwatervapor
c. Changesinwaterbodytemperature
d. Changesinwaterchemistry
e. Changesinsealevel
Source:
http://www.leecounty.com/gov/dept/sustainability/Documents/Lee%20County%20Climate%20Change%20Vulnerability%20Assessment%20Final%20201.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 30
LeeCountyClimateChangeandResiliencyStrategy
I. LeadAgencies
a. SWFLWaterManagementDistrict
II. ProjectDescription
a. TheCCRSincludesaprocessforidentifyingpotentialclimatechangeresiliencystrategiesthroughcoordinationandconsultationwithlocalgovernmentleadershipin39LeeCountydepartmentsanddivisions,includingconstitutionaloffices.IdentificationofresiliencystrategiesthatcouldbeutilizedbyLeeCountytoreducethenegativeeffectsofclimatechangewillalsohelpinpositioningtheCountytotakeadvantageofpotentialclimateprosperityopportunities.TheCCRSisatoolboxthatcontainsawidevarietyofideasandopportunitiesfortheCountytoemployinclimatechangeplanning,energysavings,andcostsavings.TheCCRSinformstheCountyofoptionsandopportunitiesbutitdoesnotprioritizethoseactionsordirectCountypolicy.Prioritizationwouldrequireafullpublicplanningprocessincorporatingpublicparticipationaspartofafulladaptationplan.
Source:
http://www.swfrpc.org/content/Natural_Resources/Ecosystem_Services/Lee_County_Climate_Change_Resiliency_Strategy.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 31
SarasotaCounty,FL:CurrentandFutureVulnerabilitytoHurricaneStormSurgeandSeaLevelRise
I. Goal:a. Developacomprehensivevulnerabilityassessmentframeworkthatintegratesgeospatialanalysis
andstakeholderinputtofacilitateenhancedcommunityresiliencethroughplanningII. Elements
a. VulnerabilityassessmentincludingSLRb. Decision‐supportmethodologyincorporatingscientificunderstandingwithvalue‐basedhuman
dynamicsc. InjectSLRscenariosintolong‐rangeplanningactivities
III. Methodologya. SLOSHmodel:Sea,Lake,OverlandSurgesfromHurricanesModelb. PriorResearchc. Impactofeachcategorystorm–resultsdeterminedbypercentageoftotalpopulationinsurgezone
inspecificneighborhoodsd. Focusgroupsdividedintosubgroups:
i. Business,Environmental,Planners,Facilities&infrastructure,GovernmentofficialsIV. Results
a. Brokendownintosubgroupsi. Overall:locationofdevelopment,locationofurbanserviceboundary,infrastructureinside
hazardzone,costofshiftingdevelopmentii. Business:IDbeachspecificbusinesses,rebuildingwithFEMArestrictions,movingcritical
andessentialfacilities,andimposingmitigationrestrictionsiii. Environmental:mitigateSLRimpactsonenvironmentalareas,transferdevelopmentrights,
developlandswaps,replenishwetlandsforsurgemitigationiv. Planners:increasedensityoutsidehazardszones,incentivestosteerdevelopment,
strategiestoretreatfromcoast,andlimitedbyeconomicrealitiesv. Facilities&infrastructure:mitigatenow(movedatedinfrastructure,ensurefunctional
flexibility,reviseexistingplan),planbetterforfuture(cautiouslyplaceinfrastructureinhazardzones,evacuation)
vi. Governmentofficials:evaluateplacementofurbanserviceboundary,mitigationneedvs.costofmoving(facilities&infrastructure),locatehighdensityresidentialoutsidehazardzones,andtransportationaddmoreNtoSonHighway75
V. Conclusions a. Developmentconstrictedtohazardszonesb. Specificadjustments:Relaxurbanserviceboundaries;Steerdevelopmentoutofhazardszone;
Relocate/replaceinfrastructure;Exploreevacuationalternativesc. Urbangrowthboundariesincoastalcommunitiescouldcontributetohurricanehazardsexposure
Source:
http://www.scgov.net/pdrp/documents/PSUHurricaneStudy070609.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 32
Sarasota,FL:InfluenceofPotentialSeaLevelRiseonSocietalVulnerabilitytoHurricanesStorm‐surgeHazards,SarasotaCounty,FL
I. Purpose
a. Concern:climatechange,specificallypotentialSLR,couldinfluencetheimpactsoffuturehurricanes
b. Assessment:variationsinsocioeconomicexposureinSarasotaCounty,FL,tocontemporaryhurricanestorm‐surgehazardsandtostorm‐surgehazardsenhancedbySLRscenarios
c. Finding:significantportionsofthepopulation,economicactivity,andcriticalfacilitiesareincontemporaryandfuturehurricanestorm‐surgehazardzones
II. RecentmodifiedprojectionssuggestglobalSLRby.8‐2.0metersby2100
III. Inadditiontoincreaseinstorm‐surgeinundationzonesduetoSLR,thepotentialforfuturehurricanesdisastersisexacerbatedbythecontinuingtrendofpopulationsmigratingtocoastalareas
IV. Paper
a. ExaminestheinfluenceofSLRonsocietalvulnerabilitytohurricanestorm‐surgehazards
b. Objective:determineifandhowSLRpredictionsmayalterthepotentialsocioeconomicimpactsoffuturestormsandhowtheseimpactsmayvaryamongcommunities
c. GrowthanddevelopmentmayintersectwithSLRtoincreasevulnerabilitytohurricanestormsurge
V. HazardAssessment
a. Todelineatehurricanestorm‐surgehazardzones,weusedoutputsfromtheSLOSHmodelprovidedbyNHC(NationalHurricaneCenter)
b. TodelineatetheeffectofSLRonhurricanestorm‐surge,wedevelopedhazardscenariosbasedonthe4contemporarystorm‐surgehazardzonesforeachSaffir‐SimpsonhurricanecategorythatareeachthenenhancedbySLRprojections
VI. Vulnerabilityassessment
a. 28communitiesinSarasotaCounty
b. GIStodeterminetheamountandpercentageofthefollowingsocioeconomicattributesinthevarioushazardzonesofeachcity:Residents,employees,criticalandessentialfacilities,parcelvalue,andlanduse
VII. Results
a. Populationandassetexposureinenhancedstorm‐surgehazardzones
i. Trend:additionofSLRscenariotohurricanestorm‐surgezonesoftenresultsinadoublingofpopandassetexposure
ii. Trend:additionofSLRtocontemporarycategory1&2hurricanestorm‐surgecausessocietalexposuretobeequaltoorgreaterthanwhatisinthehazardzoneofthenexthighercontemporarySaffir‐Simpsonhurricanecategory
VIII. Discussion
a. ImportantforpublicofficialstounderstandthesocietalriskoftheircommunitiestothecombinationofSLRandhurricanestormsurge
b. Firststepsindeterminingsocioeconomicrisk=understandingsocietalexposureofassetsinrelationshiptothevariousstorm‐surgehazardzones,howSLRaltersthisexposure,andthewaysthisincreasedassetexposurevariesfromcommunitytocommunity
Source:http://stormsmart.org/wp‐content/blogs.dir/1/files/group‐documents/22/1290533117‐Frazier_etal_2010_GIS.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 33
PlanningforSLRandHurricaneStormSurgeinSarasotaCounty
I. Location:SarasotaCounty
II. LeadAgencies
a. PennStateUniversity
b. UniversityofIdaho
c. NOAA
d. USGeologicalSurvey
e. NationalScienceFoundation
III. Projectdescription
a. Athree‐yearstudythatledtothecreationofacollaborativemethodologythatlocalgovernmentofficialsandstakeholderscanuseastheyplanforthechangesexpectedtoresultfromthefutureriseinsealevel.Thisnewmodelintegratesscenariosaboutstormsurge,populationgrowthandeconomicandinfrastructuredevelopmentintothelong‐rangeplanningoptionsforcoastalcommunities.
Source:
http://www.scgov.net/pdrp/documents/PSUHurricaneStudy070609.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 34
SeaLevelRiseintheTampaBayRegion
I. Purpose
a. TampaBayRegionalPlanningCouncil(TBRPC)wascontractedbytheSouthwestFloridaRegionalPlanningCouncil(SWFRPC)throughagrantfromUSEPAtoparticipateinanationwideprojectpromotingawarenessof,andplanningfor,SLR
b. Nationalefforttoencouragethelong‐rangethinkingnecessarytoplanforSLRandimpacts
c. SLRprojecthopestostimulategovernmentplanningforadaptationtoSLReffectsonuplandsandwetlands
II. Tool
a. MapsthatvisualizetheanticipatedresponseoflocalgovernmentstoSLR,basedoncurrentlandusedesignationsandfutureplanningpolicies
b. Current5‐ftcontourlinewasusedasmeansealevelshorelineformappingpurposes
III. Predictions
a. 2050
i. 50%probability15cm
ii. 90%4.6cm
iii. 10%28cm
b. 2100
i. 50%34cm
ii. 90%10cm
iii. 10%65cm
c. 2200
i. 50%81cm
ii. 90%22cm
iii. 10%196cm
IV. Policies
a. CurrentlynospecificSLRpoliciesexistonthelocallevel
Source:http://www.tbrpc.org/mapping/pdfs/sea_level_rise/Tampa%20Bay%20‐%20Sea%20Level%20Rise%20Project%20Draft%20Report%20without%20maps.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 35
LandUseImpactsandSolutionstoSLRinEastCentralFlorida
I. Purpose
a. EastCentralFloridaPlanningCouncil(ECFRPC)wascontractedbytheSouthwestFloridaRegionalPlanningCouncil(SWFRPC)throughagrantfromUSEPAtoparticipateinanationwideprojectpromotingawarenessof,andplanningfor,SLR
b. BringmorelocalawarenesstotheissueofSLRandaidlocalgovernmentsofBrevardandVolusiacountiesinlong‐termplanningforSLRsothatbothpropertyandtheenvironmentcanbepreserved
II. Methods
a. MapscreatedforthecoastalzonesofBrevardandVolusiacountiesthatdistinguishtheshoresthatarelikelytobeprotectedfromerosion,inundation,andflooding,fromthoseshoreswherenaturalshorelineretreatlikelywilltakeplace
b. Mapshavetwoaudiences:
i. Stateandlocalplannersandothersconcernedaboutlong‐termconsequences
ii. Policymakersandcitizensconcernedaboutlong‐termclimatechange
c. Mapsillustratetheareasthatplannerswithinthisregionexpectwillbeprotectedfromerosionandinundationinthecomingdecades
III. Results
a. LittledoubtthatacontinuationofrisingsealevelwillaffectBrevardandVolusiacounties
b. Effects:
i. Affectnotonlyresidents,butmayhaveamajoreffectontouristdestinationsaswell,whichmayresultindramaticeffectsontheeconomicwellbeingofthecounties
ii. Inundationandhigherfloodelevations
iii. Shorelineerosions
iv. Saltwaterintrusionandcontaminationoftheaquifermayoccurresultinginthecontaminationofwells
c. Thereisa90%probabilitythattherewillbeoverafootriseinsealevelby2150alongtheFloridacoast
d. Localissue:
i. Erosionsisconsideredcriticalwhenthereisathreatoflossofoneofthefollowingfourinterests:recreation,wildlifehabitat,uplanddevelopment,orimportantculturalresources
ii. Almosthalfofthebeachesinthestudyareaareconsideredcriticallyerodingorerodingsubstantially
IV. Recommendations
a. Evenifsatisfiedpreservingapproximately1/3ofcoastalwetlandecosystems,theyaremostlikelytoprotectpropertyvalues,andthecommercial,industrial,tourism,andresidentialeconomiesifwestartfactoringtheimplicationsofrisingsealevelintotheplanningprocessnow,ratherthanlater
b. Currently,landuseregulationsaddressfloodmitigationandnotSLR
i. ManyofthesecanbeusedasSLRplanning
c. CurrentlynospecificSLRpoliciesexistonthelocallevel
Source:http://research.fit.edu/sealevelriselibrary/documents/doc_mgr/446/East_Central_SLR_Adaptation_‐_ECFRPC_2004.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 36
ClimateChangeandSea‐LevelRiseinFloridaAn Update of the Effects of Climate Change on Florida’s Ocean & Coastal Resources
I. PreparedbytheFloridaOceansandCoastalCouncil:Tallahassee,FL
II. Purpose
a. ProvideafoundationfordiscussionsoftheeffectsofSLRonFL’soceansandcoastalresourcesandtoinformFloridiansaboutthecurrentstateofscientificknowledgeregardingSLRandhowitislikelytoaffectFL
b. TwomainprocessesarecausingSLR:expansionofoceanwatercausedbyincreasingoceantemperatureandtheadditionof“new”waterfrommeltingreservoirsofice
c. CausingSLRby2100torangeb/n.5metertomorethanameter
III. ChangesinBarrierIslands,Beaches,andInlets
a. ContinuedSLRwillexacerbateerosion
b. SLRmayshiftthebeachprofile,andthereforetheshoreline,landward
c. Correlationb/nthelong‐termerosionratesandSLRrates
d. Islandbreaching
e. SLR=increasesizeofbays,increasetidalprism
IV. ChangesinEstuaries,TidalRivers,andCoastalForests
a. TidalwetlandsmaybekeepingpacewithcurrentratesofSLRchangebyaccretingvertically,migratingupward,orbothifthereisasourceofsedimentorspacelandwardofcurrentwetlands
b. Low‐lyingcoastalforestswillbelostduringthenext1‐3centuriesastidalwetlandsexpandacrosslow‐lyingcoastalareasandtheretreatofforestsisblockedbyurbandevelopment
V. Higherstormsurgeandimpactsoncoastalinfrastructure
a. TheriskofflooddamagetocoastalinfrastructureislikelytoincreaseinparallelwithSLR
VI. Threatstocoastalwatersupplyandwastewatertreatment
a. Surficialcoastalaquifersarealreadyexperiencingsaltwaterintrusion
VII. Increaseinbeacherosionandrenourishment
a. Erosionwillincrease,andbeacheswillrequiremorefrequentrenourishment
b. Dangerstospeciesthatarereliantonbeach–seaturtles
VIII. IncreasedFloodingRisks
a. Whatiscurrentlyconsidereda100‐yearfloodeventwilllikelybecomea50‐or20‐yeareventassealevelcontinuestorise
IX. 2010recommendationsforFloridaresearch
a. Inthefollowingcategories:oceanography,geologyandhydrology,ecology,anddecisionmaking
Source:http://www.floridaoceanscouncil.org/reports/
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 37
CharlotteHarborRegionalClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment
I. LeadAgencies
a. CharlotteHarborNationalEstuaryProgram
b. SWFLRegionalPlanningcouncil
c. EPA
II. ProjectDescription
a. Thisreportassessessignificantpotentialclimatechangesinairandwaterandtheeffectsofthosechangesonclimatestability,sealevel,hydrology,geomorphology,naturalhabitatsandspecies,landusechanges,economy,humanhealth,humaninfrastructure,andvariableriskprojections,intheCharlotteHarborregion.
Source:www.chnep.org/NEP/agendas‐2010/CAC/ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 38
ComprehensiveSWFL/CharlotteHarborClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment
I. ReportPurposea. Assesssignificantpotentialclimatechangesinairandwaterandtheeffectsofthosechangeson
climatestability,sealevel,hydrology,geomorphology,naturalhabitatsandspecies,landusechanges,economy,humanhealth,humaninfrastructure,&variableriskprojectionsinSWFlorida
b. Outputscommunicatedtolocalgovernments,stakeholdergroups,andthepublici. Foruseindevelopingcoastalandlanduseplanningandforuseinavoidance,minimization,
mitigation,andadaptationofclimatechangeimpactsthroughouttheCHNEPstudyareac. SWFRPCandCHNEPconductedthevulnerabilityanalysis
II. 5majorstressorsofclimatechangeaddressedinthisdocument:a. Changesintheratioofatmosphericgasesb. Changesinairtemperatureandwatervaporc. Changesinwaterbodytemperatured. Changesinwaterchemistrye. Changesinsealevel
III. 12categoriesa. Airtemperatureandchemistryb. Alteredhydrologyc. Climateinstabilityd. Geomorphicchangese. Habitatandspecieschangesf. Sealevelriseg. Watertemperatureandchemistryh. Humanecologyi. Humanhealthj. Infrastructurek. Landusechangesl. Variablerisk
IV. Projections:StantonandAckermanextremesa. Rapidstabilizationcase
i. 2025–1.8ii. 2050–3.5iii. 2075–5.3iv. 2100–7.1
b. Business‐as‐usualcasei. 2025–11.3ii. 2050–22.6iii. 2075–34iv. 2100–45.3
Source:http://www.swfrpc.org/content/Natural_Resources/Ecosystem_Services/Vulnerability_Assessment_Final.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 39
SeaLevelRiseintheTreasureCoastRegion
I. Purpose
a. ReportisdesignedtosupporttheEPA’snationaleffortencouragingthelong‐termthinkingrequiredtodealwiththeissuesassociatedwithsealevelrise
b. ThereportcreatesmapsoftheTeasureCoastRegionthatdistinguishtheshoresthatarelikelytobeprotectedfromerosion,inundation,andfloodingfromthoseareaswherenaturalshorelineretreatislikelytotakeplace
II. Goal
a. Todiminishlossestolifeandpropertyfromcoastalhazardssuchaserosionandinundation,andtoensurethelong‐termsurvivalofcoastalwetlands
III. Predictions
a. 2025:2.8inchesto10.7inches
b. 2200:21.0inchesto177.3inches
c. BasedonEPAreportwhichreliedonvariousscientificopinionsregardingsealevelchangesaffectedbyfactorssuchasradiativeforcingcausedbybothgreenhousegasesandsulfateaerosols,globalwarming,andthermalexpansion,polartemperaturesandprecipitation,andthecontributionstosealevelfromGreenland,Antarctica,andsmallglaciers.
IV. Proposedpolicies
a. Considertheimpactofsealevelriseinalllanduseamendmentsincoastalareaslessthan10feetinelevation
b. Obtaindetailedtopographicmapsshowingonefootcontoursinthecoastalzonetoassistinplanningforsealevelrise
c. Developaplantoprotectorrelocateallcriticalpublicfacilitiesthatarelocatedinareasprojectedtobeimpactedbysealevelriseinthenext50years
d. Closelymonitorupdatestosealevelriseforecastsandpredictions
e. Developasealevelriseresponseplanthatspecificallyidentifiestheareaswhereretreat,accommodation,andprotectionwillbeimplemented
Source:http://www.tcrpc.org/special_projects/TCRPC%20SLR%20Report%2012‐05‐05.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 40
SouthFloridaWaterManagementDistrictClimate Change & Water Management
I. Purpose
a. Providehigh‐levelfoundationforfuturediscussionsoftheeffectsofglobalclimateonwatermanagementplanningandoperations
b. FocustheglobalconceptsofclimatechangeattheregionallevelbyprovidinganoverviewofhowitmayaffectSouthFlorida’sresourcesandthemissionresponsibilitiesoftheSFWMD
II. Includes
a. InitialvulnerabilityassessmentofthepotentialthreatsofclimatechangeandSLRtowatersupply,floodcontrol,coastalecosystems,andregionalwatermanagementinfrastructure
III. Organization&Techniques
a. Impactsdividedinto4areas:risingseas;temperatureandevapotranspiration;rainfall,floods,anddraught;andtropicalstormsandhurricanes.
b. Planningperiodofapproximately50years–to2060–isgenerallyused
IV. Predictions
a. Overthenext50yrs,SouthFloridamayexperienceseasthatareintherangeof5to20incheshigherthancurrentlevels
b. TwoprimaryfactorsforSLR
i. Thermalexpansion
ii. Meltingice
Source:http://research.fit.edu/sealevelriselibrary/documents/doc_mgr/447/South%20Florida%20Water_Management_&_CC_‐_SFWMD_2009.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 41
DevelopingaSeaLevelRiseVulnerabilityFrameworkforSouthFloridaIndicators, Metrics, and Models
I. LeadAgencies
a. FIU
b. USGeologicalSurvey
II. ProjectDescription
a. Theworkshop,theresultofanexistingcollaborationbetweenUSGS,FIU,andFAU,focusedonconceptualizingandevaluatingvulnerabilityandqualityoflife(QOL)metricsinthecontextofsealevelrise(SLR),andchanginglanddevelopmentpatterns.Thiscollaborationisanextensionofalong‐termeffortbytheUSGS,NPSandotherstodeveloptheEcosystemPortfolioModel(EPM),aGeographicInformationSystem‐basedmulti‐criteriadecision‐supportwebtoolmeanttoevaluatelanduseplansandproposedlanduse/landcoverchanges.
Source:http://www2.fiu.edu/~ipor/climatechange/FAU_FIU_USGS_JUNE2010_WORKSHOP_REPORT.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 42
SouthFloridaSLRProject
I. LeadAgencies
a. SouthFloridaRegionalPlanningCouncil
b. EPA
c. SWFLRegionalPlanningCouncil
d. TreasureCoastRegionalPlanningCouncil
II. ProjectDescription
a. Thisprojectexaminedtheeffectsoflong‐termsealevelriseonsevencoastalcountiesinFlorida,includingBroward,Monroe,Miami‐Dade,IndianRiver,PalmBeach,Martin,andSt.Luciecounties.TheprimaryobjectivewastoexaminewhatSouthFloridamightlooklikein200yearsunderclimatechangescenariosthatwouldcausesignificantsealevelrise.SealevelriseisexpectedtosignificantlyaffectFlorida’scoastaltourismindustry.Publicandprivateinfrastructureslocatedinvulnerableareasarelikelytobedamagedand/ordestroyedwithincreasedsealevelsanderosion.
Source:http://www.sfrpc.com/gis/SFRPC%20SLR%20Study%20(September%202005).pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 43
PastandProjectedTrendsinClimateandSeaLevelforSouthFlorida
I. LeadAgencies
a. SouthFloridaWaterManagementDistrict
II. ProjectDescription
a. ThisreportrepresentstheculminationofseveralinvestigationsaimedatassessingthecurrentstateofknowledgeontheseissuesastheypertaintosouthFlorida.ThefirstsectionprovidesanassessmentofnaturalclimatevariabilityandhowitinfluencesthesouthFloridaclimate.Thisisfollowedwithanin‐depthanalysisofhistoricaltrendsinprecipitationandtemperature,andtheirprojectionsproducedbyGeneralCirculationModels(GCMs)andRegionalClimateModels(RCMs).Next,sealevelrisetrendsandprojectionsarereviewedincludingexaminationofpotentialchangestostormsurgesandcoastaldrainagecapacity,followedbyabriefsummaryofexploratoryhydrologicalmodelingconductedtounderstandthewaterresourcesimpactsoftheseprojectedchanges.
Source:http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xrepository/sfwmd_repository_pdf/ccireport_publicationversion_14jul11.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 44
FloridaForeverWorkPlan
I. LeadAgencies
a. SuwanneeRiverWaterManagementDistrict
II. ProjectDescription
a. Theplancontainsalistoflandsthatsequestercarbon,providehabitat,protectcoastallandsorbarrierislands,andotherwisemitigatetohelpadapttotheeffectsofsealevelrise.
Source:www.srwmd.state.fl.us/documents/Land%20Acquisition%20and%20Management/FloridaForeverWorkplan_2008.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 45
SoutheastFloridaRegionalClimateChangeCompactA Region Responds to a Changing Climate
AcollaborativeeffortamongBroward,Miami‐Dade,Monroe,andPalmBeachCountiestodevelopaclimatechangeactionplan.Specificaccomplishmentsincludethedevelopmentofregionally‐consistentmethodologiesformappingsea‐levelriseimpacts,assessingvulnerability,andunderstandingthesourcesofregionalgreenhousegasemissions.Thecompactcallsforconcertedactioninreducinggreenhousegasemissionsandanticipatingandadaptingtoregionalandlocalimpactsofachangingclimate.
I. Policyrecommendationswillbeimplementedthroughseveralapproaches:
a. Thedevelopmentofpolicyguidingdocumentsbylocalandregionalgoverningbodies
b. Thedevelopmentofoperationalguidancedocuments
c. Thedevelopmentofconsistentgoalsandmeasuresthroughoutthevariousgovernmentsintheregion
d. Acoordinatedmulti‐disciplinaryoutreachandeducationprogram
e. Processesforfocusedandprioritizedinvestments
II. Methodology
a. BasedontheUSACEJuly2009GuidanceDocument
b. Twokeyplanninghorizons:
i. 2030–SLRprojectedtobe3‐7inches
ii. 2060–SLRprojectedtobe9‐24inches
c. ASLRofonefootisprojectedtooccurbetween2040‐2070withsealevelcontinuingtoriseintothefuture
d. Reviewprojectionafter4years
e. Mappingwascompletedtoincludedifferentsealevelriseinundationscenariostohelpidentifyareasatpotentialriskandaidinplanningforadaptationstrategies
III. StructureoftheRegionalClimateActionPlan:6categories
a. Sustainablecommunitiesandtransportationplanning
b. Watersupply,management,andinfrastructure
c. Naturalsystemsandagriculture
d. Energyandfuel
e. Riskreductionandemergencymanagement
f. Outreachandpublicpolicy
IV. Nextsteps
Source:http://webapps.broward.org/NewsRelease/Attachments/3467_237_12072011_DRAFT%20SE%20Florida%20Regional%20Climate%20Change%20Action%20Plan.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 46
AUnifiedSeaLevelRiseProjectionforSoutheastFlorida
I. Objectivea. WorktowarddevelopingaunifiedSLRprojectionfortheSEFloridaregionforusebytheSEFl
regionalclimatecompactcountiesandpartnersforplanningpurposestoaidinunderstandingpotentialvulnerabilitiesandtoprovideabasisforoutliningstrategiesfortheSEFLregion
II. ConclusionsandRecommendationsa. Providesguidanceforthecompactcountiesandtheirpartnerstoinitiateplanningtoaddressthe
potentialimpactsofSLRontheregionb. Strategiclong‐term(beyond2060)policydiscussionswillbeneededtoincludedevelopmentof
guidelinesforpublicandprivateinvestmentswhichwillhelpreducecommunityvulnerabilitytosealevelriseimpactsbeyond2060
c. RecommendationsfromtheTechnicalAdhocWorkGroupi. TheSEFLUnifiedSLRProjectionshouldbebasedontheUSArmyCorpsofEngineers
(USACE)July2009guidancedocumentusingkeywestdata(1913‐1999)asthefoundationofthecalculationsandreferencingtheyear2010asthestartingdateforSLRprojections
ii. Thisprojectionshouldbeusedforplanningpurposes,withemphasisontheshortandmoderatetermplanninghorizonsof2030(USACE‐3‐7inches)and2060(USACE‐9‐24inches)
iii. Ascience‐basednarrativefor2060andbeyondprovidescontextforthecurrentstateofscientificunderstandingandthepotentialissueswhichmustbeconsideredwhenlookingtowardtheendofthe21stcenturyandbeyond
iv. TheunifiedSEFLsealevelriseprojectionwillneedtobereviewedasthescientificunderstandingoficemeltdynamicsimproves.Theprojectionshouldberevisedwithinfouryearsoffinalapproval.
v. Usersoftheprojectionshouldbeawarethatatanypointintime,sealevelriseisacontinuingtrendandnotanendpoint
vi. Theaccelerationofsealevelrisecanbeslowedandthemagnitudereducedbyactionstoreducegreenhousegasemissions
III. Adoptiona. ThisdocumentwasadoptedbytheSEFLregionalclimatechangecompactstaffsteeringcommittee
onMay6,2011forusebytheregionalclimatechangeworkgroupsindevelopmentoftheSEFLregionalclimatechangeactionplan
Source:www.broward.org/NaturalResources/ClimateChange/Pages/SoutheastFloridaRegionalClimateCompact.aspx
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 47
DevelopmentofanAdaptationToolboxtoProtectSoutheastFloridaWaterSuppliesfromClimateChange
I. Purposea. ConnectionbetweensustainablewatersuppliesandEvergladesrestorationb. OutlinepotentialeffectsofSLRscenariosforcoastalsoutheastFloridaanddevelopatoolboxof
optionsforadaptationforwater,wastewater,andstormwaterutilitiestoapplyc. Developedmilestonestotriggerinfrastructureinvestments,asclimatechangesmayoccurmore
rapidlyormoreslowlythancurrentlyprojectedII. ClimatechangeinFlorida
a. Temperaturesarehigher,butextremesaregreaterb. Additionalresearchandhigh‐resolutionclimatemodelingfortheFloridapeninsulaisneededc. GlobalprojectionsofSLRof2‐4feetby2100areinlinewiththeresultsseenfromtheFLstationsd. SouthFloridaamongtheworld’smostvulnerablecoastalregionstoclimatechangee. Risingseasalsomeansrisinggroundwater,somoreintenserainfallwillincreasetheriskof
flooding,notonlyinthelow‐lyingcoastalareas,butalsointheinteriorfloodplainsduetothelossofsoilstoragecapacityforpercolation
f. PrimarygoalofCERPistorestorethenaturalfreshwaterflowtotheeverglades,whichbecomesevenmoreimperativeinlightofpotentialSLRimpacts
III. Toolstoprotectwaterresourcesa. Installlocalstormwaterpumping
i. Localizedpumpingstationswillneedtobeinstalledtodrainwatertoreduceponding.b. Waterconservation
i. Usefulinreducingtheneedforexpansionofwatersuppliesc. Armoringthesewersystem
i. Aneffectiveinfiltrationandinflowreductionprogramwillcombattheneedforexpensivemembranetreatmentforwaterreclamationintheshortterm
d. Wastewaterreclamationandreusee. Aquiferrecharge
i. Variousmethodsofrechargingsurficialaquifers:1. Stormwaterdiversiontoimpoundmentslocatedonpermeableland2. Treatedwaterdischargeintosurfacewatersforaquiferrecharge3. Directinjectionoftreatedstormwaterorsurfacewaterfromreservoirs4. Percolationpondsorwetlandsusingtertiarytreatedwastewater5. Directinjectionofhighlytreatedwastewaterusingreverseosmosis
f. Protectionofexistingwatersourcesi. Limitingwellfieldwithdrawalsandcoastalsalinitystructures,horizontalwells,and
hydrodynamicbarriersg. Desalinationh. Aquiferstorageandrecovery
i. Managementtool(notalternativewatersupply)andregionalizationofalternativewatersuppliesandreclamationprojects
Source:http://www.evergladeshub.com/lit/pdf11/Bloetscher11envRev19‐397‐417‐ProtectWatSupClimChge.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 48
U.S.STATES
California
HazardMitigationPlan
Sealevelriseisaprofiledhazardbutisgroupedwithcoastalfloodinganderosion.Potentiallossesareoutlinedandcurrentmitigationactionsarediscussed.Therearealsoboxesfromthe2010updateabouttheprogressionofSLR,coastalfloodinganderosionactions.TheyalsofullyprofileClimateRelatedHazardswhichincludeavalanches,coastalflooding,coastalerosion,sealevelrise,droughtsandwatershortagesandextremeheat.
Projects:
LocalCoastalPrograms
o Analyzetheeffectsof55inchsealevelriseanditsimplicationsforcoastalerosion
VulnerabilityofTransportationSystems
o Identifyimpactsoffloodingontunnels,andairportrunways,washoutofcoastalhighwaysandraillines,andsubmersionofdockandportfacilitiesfroma55‐inchriseinsealevel.
SanFranciscoBayConservationandDevelopmentDistrict(BCDC)ClimateChangePlanningProgram
o Updatesealevelrisemapstoshowareasvulnerableto16inchesofsealevelriseatmid‐centuryand55inchesattheendofthecentury.Developstrategiesforadaptingtoadynamicandchangingbay.Provideplanningassistancetolocalgovernments
Source:http://hazardmitigation.calema.ca.gov/plan/state_multi‐hazard_mitigation_plan_shmp
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 49
CAClimateChangeRegulation
I. Primarilyfocusesonmonitoringgreenhousegasemissionsandshiftingtorenewableenergyresources
II. Governor’sExecutiveOrder#S‐13‐08addressessealevelrise
a. DirectsstateagenciestoplanforsealevelriseandclimateimpactsthroughcoordinationofthestateClimateAdaptationStrategy
Source:http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 50
2009CaliforniaClimateAdaptationStrategyReporttotheGovernor
I. Projections:
a. 12‐18inchesby2050
b. 21‐55inchesby2100
c. Thisprojectionaccountsfortheglobalgrowthofdamsandreservoirsandhowtheycanaffectsurfacerunoffintotheoceans,butitdoesnotaccountforthepossibilityofsubstantialicemeltingfromGreenlandortheWestAntarcticIcesheet,whichwoulddrivesealevelsalongtheCAcoastevenhigher
II. Objectives:
a. Analyzeclimatechangerisks
b. Identifysector‐specific,andcross‐sectoraladaptationstrategiesthathelpreducevulnerabilities
c. Explorecross‐cuttingsupportivestrategies
d. Formalizecriteriaforprioritizingidentifiedadaptationstrategies
e. Specifyfuturedirection
f. Providerecommendationsforimmediateandnear‐termprioritiesforimplementingidentifiedadaptationstrategies
g. InformandengagetheCApublicaboutclimaterisksandadaptationstrategies
III. Keyrecommendations:
a. AClimateAdaptationAdvisoryPanel(CAAP)willbeappointedtoassessthegreatestriskstoCAfromclimatechangeandrecommendstrategiestoreducethoserisksbuildingonCA’sClimateAdaptationStrategy
b. CAmustchangeitswatermanagementandusesbecauseclimatechangewilllikelycreategreatercompetitionforlimitedwatersuppliesneededbytheenvironment,agriculture,andcities
c. Considerprojectalternativesthatavoidsignificantnewdevelopmentinareasthatcannotbeadequatelyprotected(planning,permitting,development,andbuilding)fromflooding,wildfire,anderosionduetoclimatechange.
d. Allstateagenciesresponsibleforthemanagementandregulationofpublichealth,infrastructureorhabitatsubjecttosignificantclimatechangeshouldprepareasappropriateagency‐specificadaptationplans,guidance,orcriteriabysept.2010
e. Allsignificantstateprojects,includinginfrastructureprojects,mustconsiderthepotentialimpactsoflocatingsuchprojectsinareassusceptibletohazardsresultingfromclimatechange.
f. TheCAemergencymanagementagency(CalEMA)willcollaboratewithCNRA,theCAT,theEnergyCommission,andtheCAAPtoassessCA’svulnerabilitytoclimatechange,identifyimpactstostateassets,andpromoteclimateadaptation/mitigationawarenessthroughtheHazardMitigationWebPortal,andMyHazardsWebsiteaswellasotherappropriatesites
g. UsingexistingresearchthestateshouldidentifykeyCAlandandaquatichabitatsthatcouldchangesignificantlyduringthiscenturyduetoclimatechange
h. Thebestlong‐termstrategytoavoidincreasedhealthimpactsassociatedwithclimatechangeistoensurecommunitiesarehealthytobuildresiliencetoincreasedspreadofdiseaseandtemperatureincreases
i. Themosteffectiveadaptationstrategiesrelatetoshortandlong‐termdecisions
j. Statefirefightingagenciesshouldbeginimmediatelytoincludeclimatechangeimpactinformationintofireprogramplanningtoinformfutureplanningefforts
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 51
k. Stateagenciesshouldmeetprojectedpopulationgrowthandincreasedenergydemandwithgreaterenergyconservationandanincreaseduseofrenewableenergy
l. Existingandplannedclimatechangeresearchcanandshouldbeusedforstateplanningandpublicoutreachpurposes;newclimatechangeimpactresearchshouldbebroadenedandfunded
Source:http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation/
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
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SeaLevelRiseAdaptationStrategyforSanDiegoBay
I. ProjectPartners
a. ICLEI–LocalGovernmentsforSustainabilityUSA
b. TheSanDiegoFoundation
c. TijuanaRiverNationalEstuarineResearchReserve–CoastalTrainingProgram
II. Projections
a. Between10‐17inchesin2050and31‐69inchesin2100
III. Theassessmentwasconductedthroughacombinationofmodeling,mapping,andintensiveconsultationwiththeproject’sTechnicalAdvisorycommittee
IV. Nextsteps
a. Manyoftherecommendationsinthisstrategyareintendedforconsiderationandimplementationineachoftheparticipatinglocaljurisdictionsintheirownplanningprocesses
i. suchasClimateMitigationandAdaptationPlansintheCityofSanDiegoandPortofSanDiego,andinbayfrontplanninginChulaVista
b. BoththePortofSanDiegoandtheCityofSanDiegoaredevelopingadaptationpoliciesintheirclimateactionplans,targetedforadoptionin2012,andtheCityofNationalCityalsorecentlyadoptedaclimateactionplan
V. GuidingPrinciplesandDevelopmentprinciples
a. EstablishedtoaligntheregionwiththeState’sapproach
VI. Planningprocessdeliverables
a. Existingconditionsreport
b. Vulnerabilityassessment
c. Policyrecommendations
d. Adaptationstrategy
Source:http://www.icleiusa.org/climate_and_energy/Climate_Adaptation_Guidance/san‐diego‐bay‐sea‐level‐rise‐adaptation‐strategy‐1/san‐diego‐bay‐sea‐level‐rise‐adaptation‐strategy
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 53
GoletaBeach2.0:ManagedRetreattoMitigateCoastalErosion
I. Projectsummary/overview
a. In2009,theGoletaBeach2.0Conceptplanningprocesswasestablishedtoreexaminemanagedretreatoptionsfortheparkinordertomitigatecoastalerosion
b. GoletaBeach2.0managedretreatmayprovetobethemostresilientstrategyforthebeachassealevelrises
c. Twomajorstrategies:
i. Astructuralsolution
ii. Majorretreat
d. Environmentalreviewpickedstructuresolution(i.e.permeablepieraddition)aspreferredoption
e. CAcoastalcommissionvotedinjuly2009toturndowntheplan
i. Toldtorethinkretreatoption
II. Projectoutcomeandconclusions
a. Severalareasthatarevulnerabletocoastalerosion
i. Primeerosionzone
ii. Majorutilitylines(withinthosezones)
b. ConfiguredtenfutureactionstoenhanceGoletaBeachCountyPark
c. GoletaBeach2.0hasnotyetresultedinaspecificengineeringplan,butithasoutlinedaconceptualplanthatwillleadtoanengineeringproposalandenvironmentalreview
Source:http://www.countyofsb.org/parks/parks07.aspx?id=16864
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 54
SanFranciscoBayConservationandDevelopmentCommission
I. RoleofBayPlan
a. ServesasmandatorystatepoliciesthatareenforcedbytheCommissionthroughitsregulatoryauthority
b. SomeBayPlanpoliciesaredeclarationsoftheCommission’sintentiontoundertakefuturestudiesorplanning
c. Otherpoliciesofferadvicetolocalgovernments,otheragencies,andorganizationsindealingwithBaymanagementissues
d. BothstatelawandtheBayPlanstipulatethatanysuchrecommendationsareadvisoryonlyandcannotbeenforcedbytheCommission
II. ChangessincepreviousamendmentstoBayPlan
a. IPCC–representsawiderangeofscientificopinion,itsconclusionsaregenerallyconservativebutwidelyaccepted
b. Effectsofclimatechangearenowbeingobserved
c. Researchdeterminesthatclimatechangeislargelycausedbyhumans
Source:http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 55
ChulaVista,California:AdaptationPlanningwithNoBudgetandNoExperience
ChulaVista’sclimatechangeadaptationplanwasdevelopedin2011.Itrecommended11strategiesinsevenfocusareastohelpthecityadapttotheimpactsofclimatechange.Thefocusareasare:infrastructureandresources;energymanagement;publichealth;businessandeconomy;watermanagement;wildfires;andecosystemsandbiodiversity.
I. ProcessofInstitutionalization
a. In2008,theSanDiegoFoundationcommissionedastudycalledFocus2050,modeledonthestudybythesamenameundertakenforKingCounty,Washington.Thestudyusesclimatechangeprojections,generatedbyscientistsattheScrippsInstitutionofOceanography,toexplorewhattheSanDiegoregionwillbelikein2050ifcurrenttrendscontinue.
i. TheFocus2050reportwasvitalbecauseitdistilledthetechnicalinformationaboutclimatechangeimpactsintheregionandmadeitdigestibleforabroaderreadership
b. In2010,ChulaVistabegantoworkondevelopinganadaptationPlan
i. FormedtheClimateChangeWorkingGroup(CCWG)comprisedofresidents,businesses,nonprofits,andcommunityorganizationrepresentatives
c. In2011,theCCWGrecommended11strategiesin7focusareastohelpthecommunityadapttotheimpactsofclimatechange.
i. TheConservationDepartment,abranchoftheDepartmentofPublicWorks,hasspearheadedtheprocessofinstitutionalization
d. Afterdevelopingthestrategies,theworkinggrouphostedapublicforumwheretheypresentedinformationaboutclimatechangeonposterboards,andthepubliccouldaskquestionsandgivefeedback
II. Whomadeithappen?
a. TheResourceConservationCommission(RCC)–astanding,city‐council‐appointedcommittee–playedakeyroleininstitutionalizingtheadaptationplan
III. Progressreport
a. AsofOctober2011,“ofthemorerecent11climateadaptationstrategiesandtheir30associatedimplementationcomponents,onlyonecomponentdealingwithstormwaterpollutionpreventionandreuseandtwocomponentsdealingwithbiologicalmonitoringhavebeendelayedduetofundingshortages”
Source:http://www.chulavistaca.gov/clean/conservation/Climate/ccwg1.asp
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 56
Delaware
TheCityofLewes:HazardMitigationandClimateAdaptationActionPlan
LewesparticipatedinProjectImpactaninitialFEMAhazardmitigationeffort.Thepilotprojectresultedinthefirst‐evercommunityactionplanthatsuccessfullycombinesthetwoplanningprocesses.TheCitycreatedaMitigationPlanningTeam,auniquegroupabletohelpthecitymitigatetheeffectsofnaturalhazards.ThusfartheCityhashadgreatsuccessinwildfiremitigationanddisasterpreparednessefforts.
I. PurposeandGoal
a. Increaseoverallawareness
b. EnhancetheunderstandingofLewes’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange
c. ProvideassistanceandguidancetotheCityofLewestodevelopaplanforhazardmitigationandclimateadaptationthatwillimprovecommunitysustainabilityandresiliency
d. Designamethodologythatcombineshazardmitigationplanningandclimatechangeadaptation
e. Createafinalactionplanthatthecitycanusetoimplementthechoseninitiatives
II. Implementationguidance
a. Alignmentwithexistingprioritiesandco‐benefits
b. Administrationandstaffing
c. Potentialimplementationsteps
d. Timelineinformation
e. Financingandbudget
f. Monitoring
III. Rangeofregionalclimatecondition:sealevelrise
a. Globaloreustaticsealevelriseisbasedontherisingwatersduetothethermalexpansionofwaterandthemeltingofland‐basedicecommonlycalledglaciers.
i. TheIPCCestimatedthatglobalsealevelrisewillincreasefrom0.59ftto1.9ftbasedsolelyonthermalexpansionofwater(IPCC,2007,p.45).However,manyscientistsconsidertheseestimatestobelowdueinparttothefactthattheydonotincludeglacialmelt.Morerecentestimatesthatincorporateadditionalcomponentsofsealevelrise,includingland‐basedicemelt,suggestthateustaticsealevelrisecouldbeashighas4.6ft
b. ThehistoricsealevelriseobservationsandtrendforLewesindicatesthatLeweshasseenabout1foot(0.32m)ofsealevelriseoverthepastcentury.
IV. theStateofDelaware’sDepartmentofNaturalResourcesandEnvironmentalControliscurrentlyworkingwiththerangeoffuturesealevelrisebetween1.6ftand4.9ftby2100forplanningpurposes
Source:http://www.ci.lewes.de.us/Hazard‐Mitigation‐Climate‐Adaptation‐Action‐Plan/
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 57
PreparingforSLRDevelopmentofaSLRInitiativeSLR Initiative Project Compendium September 2011
I. MissionofDelawareCoastalProgramsSection
a. Topreserve,protect,develop,andenhancetheresourcesofourcoastalzonethrougheffectiveadministrationoftheDelawareCoastalManagementProgramandtheDelawareNationalEstuarineResearchReserve
i. Managescoastalresourcesthroughinnovativeresearchprojects,grantprograms,andpolicydevelopment
ii. Administersthecoastalzonefederalconsistencycertificationprogram
iii. Providesspecialareamanagementprogram
iv. Providesassistancetostateandlocalgovernmentsforlocallanduseplanning
v. Offersotherspecialon‐the‐groundprojectsrelatedtoDelaware’scoastalresources
II. Predictions
a. BasedontheUSClimateChangeScienceProgram’s2009documentwhichrecommendsthatstatesshouldprepareforsealeveltorisebyatleastonemeterby2100
b. CurrentrateofSLRmeasuredbyatidegaugeinLewesDelawareis13inchesper100years
III. SLRInitiativegoal:
a. Providingscientificandtechnicalsupportfordecision‐making
b. Implementingon‐the‐groundprojectinpartnershipwithstakeholders
c. Providingeducationalandoutreachopportunitiesforstakeholdersandthepublic
d. Improvingexistingpoliciesandmanagementpracticesand/ordevelopingnewpoliciesandmanagementpracticeswherenecessary
IV. PurposeofSLRInitiativeCompendiumofProjects
a. Toprovideanat‐a‐glanceinventoryoftheprojectsandinitiativesthatarebeingconductedaspartoftheDECoastalPrograms’SLRInitiative.Itisintendedtohelpincreasecollaborationbetweenagencies,reduceredundancy,andoverlapinprojectsrelatingtoSLRandtorelayinformationaboutnew(orsoontobeavailable)data,information,andtools
V. ScientificandTechnicalSupport
a. DECoastalProgramshavepartneredwiththeNationalWildlifeRefugeSystem,theUniversityofDE,localEstuaryprograms,andotherstateagenciestofillgapsinourknowledgeaboutcoastalstorms,tidelevels,andmarshsedimentaccretion
b. Projects/Studies
i. BombayHookHydrology/sedimentmovementstudy
ii. CoastalImpoundmentAccretionRateStudy
iii. CoastalMonitoringGapAnalysis
iv. CoastalStormHistory
v. DevelopmentofCoastalInundationMaps
vi. DigitalCoast
vii. HydrologicMonitoringoftheKittsHummockArea
viii. MarshLossAnalysis(interiorOpenWaterCreation)
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 58
ix. MarshVulnerabilityIndex
x. PrimeHookNWRSalinity/Nutrient/Sediment/Waterlevelstudy
xi. SedimentElevationTables
VI. Implementation
a. DECoastalProgramsstaffhavepartneredwiththeCityofNewCastleandtheTownofBowersBeachtohelpthemimprovetheirpreparednessforcoastalstormsandfutureSLR
b. Projects:
i. CityofNewCastleCoastalResiliencyProject:dikemaintenanceandimprovementplan
ii. DevelopmentofacoastalfloodmonitoringsystemforDE
iii. Developmentofacoastalresiliencyactionplanforbowersbeach
VII. PolicyDevelopment
a. DevelopmentofaStatewideSLRAdaptationPlan
b. Mid‐AtlanticRegionalCouncilontheOceans(MARCO)
i. DE,NY,NJ,MD,andVA
c. SustainableCoastalCommunities–incorporationofcoastalhazardandnaturalresourceconsiderationsintolocalcomprehensiveplans
VIII. Communication,training,andpublicinvolvement
a. Comprehensivemarketing&outreachstrategyforSLR
b. SLRMapViewer
c. StatewideSurveytogaugepublicknowledgeandopinionsonSLRanditsimpactinDE
Source:http://www.dnrec.delaware.gov/coastal/Documents/SeaLevelRise/SLRCompSept2011.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 59
DevelopmentofaCoastalResiliencyActionPlanforBowersBeach,DEA Plan to Address Existing and Future Coastal Hazards
I. Background:
a. Projectisdesignedtoassistthecommunityintheireffortstoreducehazardvulnerabilitythatcurrentlyexistsandthatcouldpotentiallyincreaseinthefutureduetotheimpactsofclimatechange
II. ProjectGoal
a. Todevelopacommunity‐wideactionplanthatincreasetheresiliencyofBowersBeach,DEtothecurrentandfutureaffectsofcoastalstormsandclimatechange
b. Developaproactiveplanthatoutlinesthespecificvulnerabilitiesofthecommunityandthebestactionstobepursuedtoaddresstheseissues
III. WorkPlan
a. Analyzethephysical,social,economic,andenvironmentalvulnerabilityatthecommunitylevel
b. Phase1:datacollectionandsynthesis
i. Identifywhereoutsideexpertiseshouldbebroughtintoprovideadditionaltechnicalassistance
c. Phase2:vulnerabilityassessment
i. Willincludedetailedworkshopstoconductamoredetailedvulnerabilityassessment
ii. TheassessmentwillbeusedasaguidefordevelopingmitigationstrategiesandprioritizingmitigationprojectstobeincludedintheBowersBeachCoastalResiliencyActionPlan
d. Phase3:strategydevelopment
i. Willutilizethedetailedresultsofthevulnerabilityassessmenttodevelopafinalprioritizationofneedsandasetofstrategiestoaddresstheseneeds
e. Phase4:implementation
i. Longtermefforttoimplementtheactionplan.
Source:www.dnrec.delaware.gov/coastal/Documents/CoastalResiliency/Bowers%20Beach%20Grant%20Project.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 60
Georgia
SLROnGA’sCoast:AStudyfromtheRiver
I. PurposeofStudy
a. In2008,theRiverBasinCenterwasawardedathree‐yeargranttoresearchtheimpactsofSLRontheGeorgiacoastandprovideguidanceforfuturedevelopmentofthearea
II. Methods:
a. Computermodelwascreatedtoforecasttheresultsofa1meterriseinsealevelby2100
b. UsedSeaLevelAffectingMarshesMode(SLAMM)
III. Findings:
a. FirstyearfocusedontheGeorgiacoastasawhole,definedbythe6countiesofChatham,Bryan,Liberty,McIntosh,Glynn,andCamden
b. Thestudyalsoprovidedaerialimagesofhowspecificcoastlinesmaybeaffected
IV. Next
a. TheRiverBasinCenteriscurrentlydevelopingaguidancedocumentthatwillassistgovernmentofficialsinplanningforfuturedevelopmentalongtheGeorgiacoastline
Source:http://www.georgiaconservancy.org/uploads/Coast/SeaLevelRise‐fact_sheet‐lowres.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 61
TybeeIsland
TheUniversityCarlVinsonInstituteofGovernmentandGeorgiaSeaGrantaredevelopingaclimateadaptationplanforthebarrierislandcommunityofTybeeIslandthroughfundingfromtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration.
Therecommendationsdevelopedbytheproject,titledtheSeaGrantCommunityClimateAdaptationInitiative,willhelptheCityofTybeeIslandprepareforandadapttosealevelrisethroughappropriatelocalordinances,infrastructuralimprovementsandothermunicipalactions.
Source:http://georgiaseagrant.uga.edu/article/5_8_12_Tybee/
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
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Louisiana
RecommendationsforAnticipatingSea‐LevelRiseImpactsonLACoastalResourcesduringProjectPlanningandDesign
Objectiveofthetechnicalreportistomakerecommendationsforincorporatingsea‐levelriseintotheplanningandengineeringofhabitatrestorationandstormprotectionprojects.
TheTechnicalReportrecommendsthatCPRAstaffassumethatGulfsea‐levelrisewillbe1meter(3.3’)by2100,withaboundingrangeof0.5‐1.5meters(1.6/‐4.9’).Thisneedstobecombinedwithpredictionsofsubsidenceandmarshverticalaccretion.(Bothofwhicharenottheprimarysubjectofthepaperduetotheirevolvingnature.)
I. Objective
a. theobjectiveofthetechnicalreportistomakerecommendationsforincorporatingsea‐levelriseintotheplanningandengineeringofhabitatrestorationandstormprotectionprojects
i. summarizesthestateofthescienceonpatternsofincreasetosupportrecommendations
ii. describehowrecommendedratesoflocalsea‐levelriseshouldbecombinedwiththehighlyvariablespatialpatternsincoastalsubsidenceandwetlandverticalaccretiontopredictrelativesea‐levelriseatspecificpointsintheLAcoastalzone
II. Historicalsea‐levelrise
a. Theyhavechosentofollowtheweightofscientificopinionthatsea‐levelriseisinfactaccelerating
III. Projectionsoffuturesea‐levelrise
a. SuggestsanassumptionthatGulfsea‐levelrisewillbe1meter(3.3’)by2100,withaboundingrangeof0.5‐1.5meters(1.6’‐4.9’)
b. Consistentwithothersimilareffortsongoinginotherstates
IV. SumofFactorsinfluencingsea‐levelrise
a. ThechangeinthesurfaceelevationchangeoftheGulfofMexico
b. Locallandsurfaceelevationchange,whichinLAisexclusivelyrepresentedassubsidence
c. Marshverticalaccretion,whichcanoffsetsomesea‐levelriseimpacts
V. SummaryandRecommendations
a. SLRfortheavailableperiodofrecordisbestrepresentedasasingle,non‐linearfunction,whichhasimportantimplicationsforrelatingRSLRandGSLRestimates,andespeciallyforassumptionsofthedifferentialrepresentinglocallandsurfacechange
b. Uselocalobservationsofhistoricalsea‐levelrisefromcontemporarysatellitealtimetryjustoffshoreofcoastalLA,inordertoaccountforthesubstantialeast‐westgradientindocumentedrates
c. CalculatetheaccelerationconstantthatassumesaMSLincreaseof1meterby2100asthemostheavily‐weightedprojectalternative,whilealsotestingMSLincreaseof.5metersand1.5meterstoaccountforuncertaintyintheliterature
d. Addinlocalsubsidencevaluesobtainedfromthemostproximatelocalsource
e. Usethesumoftheabovethreeelementstoestablishaninundationfunction,especiallytherateofinundationfortheperiodofanalysis,inordertopredictlocalresponseofmarshverticalaccretionasthosemodelsanddataproductsbecomeavailable
Source:http://coastal.louisiana.gov/index.cfm?md=pagebuilder&tmp=home&pid=240
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 63
Maryland
CommissiononClimateChange
OnApril20,2007,GovernorMartinO’MalleysignedExecutiveOrder01.01.2007.07establishingtheMarylandCommissiononClimateChange(MCCC).TheMCCCwaschargedwithdevelopingaClimateActionPlantoaddressthedriversandconsequencesofclimatechange,toprepareforitsensuingimpactsintheState,andtoestablishfirmbenchmarksandtimetablesforPlanimplementation.Toaccomplishitsgoals,theMCCCworkedwiththeCenterforClimateStrategiesinconductinganextensivestakeholder‐basedprocess.Thisprocessusedpublicinputtoformulate,analyze,andbuildconsensusforforty‐twomitigationandnineteenadaptationpolicyrecommendationsforthestateofMarylandtopursue.TheMCCCcompleteditsworkinAugust2008withthereleaseofitsfinalClimateActionPlan(2008Plan).SinceAugust2008,MarylandStateagencieshavebeenworkingtoimplementeachoftheforty‐twomitigationstrategiesandnineteenadaptationstrategiesthroughthedevelopmentofanimplementationplanforeachofthepolicyrecommendations.OneofthePlan’spolicyrecommendations,toadoptscience‐basedregulatorygoalstoreduceMaryland’sgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions,wasrealizedwiththepassageoftheGreenhouseGasEmissionsReductionActof2009(GGRA).ThelawrequiresMarylandtoreduceitsGHGemissionsto25percentbelow2006levelsby2020.ItdirectstheMarylandDepartmentoftheEnvironmenttoworkwithotherleadStateagenciestoprepareanimplementationplantomeetthisgoalasafirststeptowardachievinglongertermscience‐basedreductions.AninterimplanwillbesubmittedtotheGovernorandtheGeneralAssemblyduringthe2012legislativesession,andthefinalplan(GGRAPlan)willbesubmittedonorbeforeDecember31,2012.TheGGRAPlanbuildsonthe2008PlanandensuingimplementationworkoftheStateagencies.
Source:http://www.mdclimatechange.us/
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 64
Maryland’sCoastalZoneEnhancementPlan:CoastalZoneManagementActSection309AssessmentandStrategy2011‐2015
I. ChesapeakeandCoastalprogram(CCP)
a. In2007thestateofMarylandconsolidatedtheadministrativeandmanagementfunctionsoftheCZMAandEPAsection117awardsaswellasState’sChesapeakeandAtlanticCoastalBaysTrustFundtoasingleprogram–CCP
b. Theprogramisbetterabletoleveragecorecompetenciesfromdifferentprograms,avoidduplicateefforts,leverageandefficientlyprioritizeresourcestoadvancethegoalsoftheCZMA
c. CCPisadministeredbytheStateDepartmentofNaturalResources
i. Partnershipamongthelocal,regional,andstateagencies
ii. Alsocollaborateswithmanyprivateorganizationssuchaslocallandtrustsandeconomicdevelopmentgroups
d. CCPconductsresearch,providestechnicalservicesanddistributesfederalandstatefundstoenableon‐the‐groundprojectsthatbenefitMaryland’scoastalcommunities
II. SelectAccomplishments
a. Thisisthe4thassessmentandstrategythattheMarylandprogramhassubmittedunderSection309ofthefederalcoastalzonemanagementact
b. Theoverallgoalsofthe2006‐2010section309strategywereto:
i. Integratecoastalhazardplanningintostateandlocalprogramsandpolicies
ii. Improvetheunderstandingandmanagementofnearshoreresources
iii. Developaframeworkforfutureoceanplanningandmanagementefforts
iv. AdvanceCZMAgoalsrelatedtocumulativeandsecondaryimpactsatthelocalcommunitylevel
c. InApril2007–establishedtheMarylandCommissiononClimateChange(MCCC)
d. InAugust2008,theMCCCreleasedtheState’sClimateActionPlanwhichincluded19policyrecommendationsaimedatreducingtheState’svulnerabilitytosealevelriseandcoastalstorms
e. ListskeyimplementationactivitiesforthosepolicyrecommendationsasofSeptember2010
Source:http://www.dnr.state.md.us/ccp/funding/pdfs/SFY13_TrustFundAnnualReport.pdf
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 65
Massachusetts
HazardMitigationPlan
Outlines“ClimateChangeImpacts”asafuturenaturalhazard.Itoutlinessomeofthebackgroundaswellasprojectionsforincreasedtemperatureandprecipitation,riskstopublichealthandharmfromsealevelrise.ItalsotalksabouttheMassachusettslawthe“GlobalWarmingSolutions”Act.
Projects:
MassachusettsOfficeofCoastalZoneManagement’sStormSmartCoastsProgram
o Thisisatechnicalassistanceprogramthatwasdesignedtohelpcommunitiesaddressthechallengesarisingfromerosion,storms,floods,sealevelrise,andotherclimatechangeimpacts.Theprogramoperatesontwolevels–awebsitethatprovidesasuiteoftoolsforsuccessfulcoastalfloodplainmanagementanddirecttechnicalassistancetocommunitiesthroughitspilotprojectsprogram
Source:http://www.mass.gov/eopss/docs/mema/disaster‐recovery/mass‐haz‐mit‐plan2010‐official.pdf
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State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 66
NewHampshire
Keene,NewHampshire:TheEconomicsofEnergyEfficiency
Keenefirstdevelopedaclimatemitigationplanin2004.Itwasfollowedin2007byaclimateadaptationplan.ThecityworkedwithICLEI–LocalgovernmentsforSustainabilitytoproducebothoftheplans.TheclimateadaptationplanhasbeenincorporatedintoKeene’smasterplanand,byextension,intootherkeyplansanddecisionsthattierfromthemasterplan.
Becauseadaptationstrategiesareincorporatedintothemasterplan,allcityplansandordinancesthattierfromthemasterplanmustalsoconsiderclimatechange.Forexample,everyyearthecityrevisitsitscapitalimprovementsplanthatprojectsmajorcapitalfacilitiesneedssixyearsout.Theoperatingbudgetprocessissimilar,eachdepartment’soperatingbudgetmusthaveatiebacktothemasterplan,forcingaconversationaroundsustainabilityandclimateadaptation.
Source:http://www.ci.keene.nh.us/sites/default/files/KeeneReport_ICLEI_FINAL_v2_1.pdf
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NewYork
HazardMitigationPlan
TheStatePlandoesnottalkaboutsealevelrise.However,itrecommendsthatwhenconductingariskassessmentaJurisdictionevaluate(1)thelikelihoodofaneventoccurring,(2)theimpactonthepopulation,and(3)theimpactonpropertywithintheJurisdiction.Jurisdictionsshouldalsotakeintoaccounttheaffectthatclimatechangemayhaveontheirvulnerabilitytoeachhazard,forexampleincreasedfrequencyofoccurrenceand/orseverity.
Source:http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/about/planning_hazard_mitigation.shtml
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NorthCarolina
HazardMitigationPlan
Thisplanmentionssealevelriseunderlongtermhazards.Thissectionisroughly4pagesexplainingclimatechange,sealevelrise,changesinweatherpatterns.Withintheseitexplainstheimpacts,addressingclimatechangeandwhatNCwilldotoaddressclimatechange.
Source:http://www.nccrimecontrol.org/index2.cfm?a=000003,000010,001623,000177,002107,001563
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NorthCarolinaSea‐LevelRiseAssessmentReport
ReportontheknownstateofSLRforNorthCarolina.Askedthefollowingquestions:anexplanationofhowSLRismeasured;relativeSLRrangesfordifferentsectionsoftheNorthCarolinacoast;relativeSLRrangesforNorthCarolinaexpressedintimeslicesforyears2025,2050,2075,and2100;relativeSLRratecurvesforNorthCarolinathrough2100;discussionofconfidenceinterval;recommendationsforwhatneedstobedoneforimprovedSLRmonitoringinthestateofNC;andrecommendationsastohowfrequentlythestateofNCshouldupdateitsprojectedSLRrangesandrates.
I. Data
a. IPCC4thassessmentreportcontainsforecastsforglobalaverageSLRrangingfrom.18metersto.59metersbytheyear2100
b. ThereisconsensusthattherateofSLRwillincreaseduringthe21stcenturyandbeyond
II. Factorsinfluencingsealevelrise
a. Globalsea‐levelchange
b. Localverticallandmovements(subsidenceoruplift)
c. Changesintidalrange
d. Changesincoastalcurrents
e. Changesinwatertemperature
f. Gravitationaleffects
III. 4studiesprovidedataonratesofRSLriseinNorthCarolina
a. Firstthreestudiesutilizegeologicaldatawhereasthestudycoveringtheshortesttimeintervalutilizesinstrumentaldata
b. Cumulativedatafromthese4investigationsindicatethatRSLchangevariesasafunctionoflatitudealongtheNCcoast,withhigherratesofriseinthenorth,andlesserratesofriseinthesouth
c. Thisisafunctionofthelocalgeologyaswellasdifferentialcrustalsubsidenceanduplift
d. Panelhaschosentousethetidegaugedataforprojectionsbecausethetidegaugedatarepresentsamoredirectindicatorofsealevel
IV. Projections
a. TheIPCCreportsrelyonemissionsscenariosasthebasisforprojectingfutureSLRranges
b. RecommendationofthePanelthatasinglesetofsea‐levelcurvesbeadoptedforplanningpurposes
c. PanelfeelsmostconfidentinthedataretrievedfromtheDuckgauge,givenitsinstallation,continuouslengthofserviceandlackofinfluencebymaritimenavigationprojects
d. PanelbelievesthattheRahmstorfmethodisrobustand1.4metersisareasonableupperlimitforprojectedrise
e. Panelrecommendsthatariseof1meterbeadoptedastheamountofanticipatedraseby2100,forpolicydevelopmentandplanningpurposes
V. Recommendations
a. BelievesthatanaccelerationintherateofSLRislikely
b. Recommendedthatthelong‐termtidalobservationsbemaintainedandnewstationsaddedtothelong‐termrecordtoprovidebettergeographiccoverageofourcoast
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State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 70
c. New,better‐distributedwaterlevelgaugesaremaintainedorinstalledtodeveloplong‐termrecords
d. Inotherareasnewwaterlevelgaugesshouldbeinstalledtoachievecomprehensivegeographiccoverage
e. Stateshouldconsiderinstallingtidemonitoringstationsintheestuarinesystem,andestablishingaprogramforcontinuouslymonitoringandmeasuringlandsubsidenceonthecoastalplain
Source:http://dcm2.enr.state.nc.us/slr/NC%20Sea‐Level%20Rise%20Assessment%20Report%202010%20‐%20CRC%20Science%20Panel.pdf
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NorthCarolinaDENRClimateChangeInitiativeStrategyFramework
Thegoalofthisinitiativeistoaddressclimatechangeinacomprehensiveway,usingmitigationandadaptationstrategiestoincreaseresilienceofNorthCarolina’sresourcestothesecomplexchanges.
I. Steps:
a. Developafocusedapproachtoaddressclimatechangepolicyactionsatstate,regional,andfederallevels
b. Identifyshort‐term,mid‐term,andlong‐termpotentialimpacts
c. Coordinatestrategieswithotherlocal,state,federal,andnongovernmentalpartners
II. ClimateChangeMitigationStrategies
a. Reducehuman‐inducedcontributionstoclimatechange,suchasgreenhousegasemissions,asrecommendedbytheClimateActionPlanAdvisoryGroup
b. Becomeanenvironmentalleaderinenergyandwaterefficiencyandcarbonmanagement
III. ClimateChangeAdaptationStrategies
a. Proactivelyprepareforandadapttochangeswecantprevent
b. DevelopacomprehensiveadaptationstrategyacrossDENRprograms,toeffectivelyidentifyandaddresspotentialimpactstotheenvironmentandnaturalresourcesthatDENRischargeswithprotecting
c. Sealevelriseadaptation:goalsandobjectives
i. Coastalhabitatprotectionplan
1. Underway:updatecoastalhabitatprotectionplantoaddressclimatechangeimpactsoneachhabitattype
ii. Coastalmanagement
1. Completed:conductapublicsurveytoassessstateresidents’perceptionsaboutsealevelrise,itsthreatstotheNCcoast,andwhatactionrespondentsthinkshouldbetakentoprepareandadapt
2. Underway:holdapublicscienceforumtopresentthecoastalresourcecommissionreport
3. Underway:developapubliceducationandoutreachcampaign
4. Underway:monitorandassessvariableratesofsealevelriseatsentinelsitesonrepresentativecoastalecosystemsindifferentregionsofNCcoastandinformresourcemanagementdecisionsatreservesitesandinNCcoastalcommunities
iii. Climatereadyestuaries
1. Underway:assessgeneralpublicandpublicofficials’awarenessandconcernaboutclimatechange,sea‐levelrise,andpossibleactions
2. Underway:developacommunicationsstrategyforoutreachandengagementinthetargetedcounties
3. Underway:createblueprinttobuildaclimatereadyestuarysystemwithstepstoimprovethearea’sresilienceandadaptationcapacity
4. Underway:recommendpriorityactionsforComprehensiveConservationandManagementPlantoAPNEPPolicyBoard
5. Underway:coordinatestrategieswithothercoastalprograms(CHPP,DCM)
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6. Underway:workwithregionalandfederalpartnersonclimatechangeadaptationactions(NCCF,TNC,EPA,NOAA)
Source:http://www.climatechange.nc.gov/pages/ClimateChange/NCDENR_Climate_Change_Initiative_strategy_framework_June_2010.pdf
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Oregon
OregonGlobalWarmingCommission:ReporttotheLegislature2011
I. Summary
a. Updateonsuccessoflegislatedclimatechangeactions
b. StateagenciescollaboratedwitheachotherandOCCRI(OregonClimateChangeResearchInstitute)toproducethefirstcomprehensiveOregonpolicyframeworkforclimatechangeadaptationplanninginDecember2010
c. Workedwithstateagenciesandlocalgovernmentstoimplementexistingpoliciesandcommentingonfederalclimatechangepolicies
II. Goals:
a. 2020–10%below1990levels
b. 2050–75%below1990levels(nearly90%below2010levels)
III. Transformationalthemes:theNextBigIdeas
a. Embedcarbonintheplanningprocess
b. Embedcarboninthepriceofenergy–partialrelianceoncarbontaxes
c. Leveragetheinherentcarbonefficienciesofcities–“completecommunities”
d. Leveragetheinherentcarbonefficienciesofbuildings–zeronetcarbonbuildingdesignsarebeingdemonstrated
e. Rampdownoil,shifttransportationloadstoelectricityandgas
f. Rampdowncoal,shiftelectricloadstoefficiencyandrenewable
g. Capturecarbonacrosstheboard
h. Totalof169recommendationsinthefullInterimRoadmapto2020report
IV. KeySectors
a. Energy
b. Transportationandlanduse
c. Industrial
d. Agriculture
e. Forestry
f. Materialsmanagement
Source:http://www.oregon.gov/energy/GBLWRM/docs/OGWC_2011_Leg_Report.pdf?ga=t
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SouthCarolina
ShorelineChangeInitiative
I. Projectsummary/overview
a. AimstoimproveupontheexistingregulatorycoastalmanagementframeworkestablishedbytheBeachfrontManagementActof1988
b. 23experts,includingscientists,managers,planners,andnon‐governmentalrepresentativesformedtheshorelinechangeadvisorycommittee
II. Implementation
a. Overviewofexistingshorelineregulationsandfourgoalsand13specificactionstoimprovecoastalmanagementinSC
b. Goals:
i. Minimizerisktobeachfrontcommunities(5recommendations)
ii. Improvetheplanningofbeachrenourishmentprojects(3recommendations)
iii. Maintainprohibitionsandfurtherrestricttheuseofhardstabilizationstructures(3recommendations)
iv. Enhancethemanagementofshelteredcoastlines(2recommendations)
III. Outcomesandconclusions
a. StaffwillreviewrecommendationsandprovidespecificresponsestohelplocalandstateofficialsdevelopacoordinatedshorelinemanagementresponsetoSLR,coastalstorms,anderosion
Source:http://www.scdhec.gov/environment/ocrm/shoreline_change.htm
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Texas
HazardMitigationPlan
I. Mentionedbrieflyincoastalerosionhazard.
II. Projects:
a. None
Source:http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/documents/txHazMitPlan.pdf
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Washington
HazardMitigationPlan
Sealevelriseisprofiledasanimpactofclimatechange.Thereisabriefdiscussionoftheproperty,jurisdictionsandbusinessesatrisk.
Projects:
None
Source:http://www.emd.wa.gov/plans/washington_state_hazard_mitigation_plan.shtml
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PreparingforaChangingClimate:WashingtonState’sIntegratedClimateResponseStrategyDepartment of Ecology
WashingtonStateisaddressingthechallengeofclimatechangeandhasadoptedpoliciestoreduceenergyuse,limitgreenhousegasemissions,andbuildacleanenergyeconomy.Thedocumentlaysoutaframeworktoprotecttheircommunities,naturalresources,andeconomyfromtheimpactsofclimatechangeandbuildtheircapacitytoadapttoexpectedclimatechanges.
I. DocumentStructure
a. DescribesexistingandnewstatepoliciesandprogramsthatbetterprepareWAtorespondtotheimpactsofclimatechange
b. Callsonstateagenciestomakeclimateadaptationastandardpartofagencyplanningandtomakescientificinformationaboutclimatechangeimpactsreadilyaccessibletodecisionmakersinthepublicandprivatesectors
c. Recommendsthatstateagenciesstrengthenexistingeffortsandbuildpartnershipstohelplocalandtribalgovernments,privateandpublicorganizations,andindividualsreducetheirvulnerabilitytoclimatechangeimpacts
II. Strategiesandactionsforthefollowingareas:
a. Humanhealth
b. Ecosystems,species,andhabitats
c. Oceanandcoastlines
d. Waterresources
e. Agriculture
f. Forests
g. Infrastructureandthebuiltenvironment
h. Researchandmonitoring
i. Climatecommunication,publicawareness,andengagement
III. Predictions–SLR
a. RelativeSLRwillbegreatestinsouthPugetSoundandleaseonthenorthwesttipoftheOlympicPeninsula
b. PugetSound:mediumestimateis6inchesby2050and13inchesby2100
c. CentralandSouthernWAcoasts:mediumestimateis5inchesby2050and11inchesby2100
d. OlympicPeninsula:mediumestimateis0inchesby2050and1inchesby2100
e. Increasesofupto3feetforthenorthwestOlympicPeninsula,3.5feetforthecentralandsoutherncoast,and4feetforPugetSoundby2100cannotberuledoutatthistimeduetolargerangesforacceleratingratesoficemeltfromGreenlandandAntarctica
Source:https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/publications/publications/1201004b.pdf
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Olympia,Washington:VulnerabletoSeaLevelRisefromClimateChange
I. Olympia’sconcernandpolicy
a. DowntownOlympiasitsatonly18‐20feetabovesealevel,makingitvulnerabletorisingsealevels
b. CityofOlympiahasdevelopedavarietyofstrategiestoreduceitsvulnerabilitytofloodingofthedowntownareaduetosealevelrise
i. Intheearly1990s,thecitycouncilpassedaresolutionforthecitytomitigateandprepareforclimatechange
ii. Mapsandsimulationmodelswereproducedtoshowtheeffectsonthecityofrisingsealevelsduetoclimatechange
iii. ThecitycouncilcreatedaninterdepartmentalGlobalWarmingTaskForce
iv. Thetaskforcerecommendedshort‐termactionandlong‐termactionplans.Longtermincluded:
1. Updatingthecomprehensiveplanstoaddresstheimpactsofsealevelrise,increasingtheheightoftheseawall,anddevelopinganinstitutionalframeworkforaddressingclimatechange
II. Whatwastheprocess
a. TheGlobalWarmingTaskForce’sfirstassignmentwastoprepareabackgroundreportontheimplicationsofclimatechangeforOlympia
b. ThefinalreportidentifiedwheretheCityofOlympiahadauthoritytoact,stepsthecityhadalreadytaken,andpossiblefutureactions
c. Thisfindingpromptedthecitytoundertakeafollow‐upreport,releasedin1993,called“thepreliminaryassessmentofsealevelriseinOlympia,Washington:TechnicalandPolicyImplications”whichmorespecificallyidentifiedrisingsealevelsandpotentialfloodingasaproblem
d. In2009,theClimateImpactsGroupreleased“theWashingtonClimateChangeImpactsAssessment”withupdatedregionalsealevelrisepredictionsfor2100
i. Thepredictionsvaried,fromanincreaseof2inchesto50inches
e. Citycouncilplayedakeyroleininstitutionalizingtheclimateadaptationpolicies
Source:http://olympiawa.gov/community/sustainability/climate‐change
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COUNTRIES
Australia
QueenslandCoastalPlanI. Implementation
a. Themanagementpoliciesareprimarilyintendedtobeimplementedbythemanagersofstateandlocalgovernmentcontrolledcoastallandandownersofprivatecoastalland.
b. Thestateplanningpolicy(SPP)willinformfutureregionalplansaswellaslocalgovernmentplanningschemesanddecisionsondevelopmentapplications.
c. forthoselocalgovernmentswhosejurisdictionincludespartofthecoastalzone,theSPPwillalsoprovidedetailedguidanceabouthowtodesignandlocaldevelopmenttoavoidcoastalhazardrisks‐especiallythoseincreasedbyclimatechangerelatedsea‐levelrise
II. ReviewoftheStatePolicyforcoastalmanagement
a. areportwillbeprovidedonthestateofthecoastzoneatleasteveryfouryearsaspartofQueensland’scomprehensivereportonthestateoftheenvironment.
b. reportwillincludeanassessmentoftheconditionsofcoastalresourcesandevaluatetheefficiencyandeffectivenessofcoastalmanagementstrategies,programs,andactivitiesinrelationtotheprotection,restoration,andenhancementofthecoastalzone
III. ApplicationofSPP
a. coastalhazards(CH)
i. specificpolicyoutcome:
1. communitiesanddevelopmentareprotectedfromadverseCHimpacts,takingintoaccounttheprojectedeffectsofclimatechange,theprotectivefunctionofthenaturalenvironment,andthepreferenceforallowingthenaturalfluctuationsoftheforeshoreandforeshoreecosystemstocontinue
ii. definingcoastalhazardareas
1. CHareasaretobeidentifiedinaccordancewiththemethodologysetoutintheCHguidelinesusingthefollowingfactorstoaccountfortheprojectedimpactsofclimatechangebytheyear2100:
a. asea‐levelrisefactorof0.8meters&anincreaseinthemaximumcycloneintensityby10percent
2. reviewofthemethodologyintheCHguidelineandthefactorstoaccountfortheprojectedimpactsofclimatechangewillbeinitiatedwithin6monthsofeitherthe
a. releaseofanewassessmentreportbytheUNIPCCthatreferstoglobalemissions,temperature,orsea‐levelrisetrends
iii. developmentlimitedincoastalhazardareas
iv. developmentlimitedinerosionproneareas
v. developmentonlyallowedincertainareasifcongruentwithcoastalprotectionwork
vi. developmentlimitedspecificallyinhighandmediumcoastalhazardareas
Source:http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/coastalplan/
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State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 80
Canada
HalifaxClimateSMART:TheClimateSustainableMitigationandAdaptationRiskToolkit
I. Projectsummary/overview
a. Twogoals
i. TodevelopaplantoreduceHRM’sgreenhousegasemissions
ii. Tocreateamanagementplantopreparethemunicipalityforprojectedclimatechangeimpacts
b. Overallobjective:
i. Mainstreamclimatechangemitigationandadaptationstrategiesintooverallmunicipaldecision‐making
c. Intendedtoserveasaprototypeforfutureprojects
II. Projectimplementation
a. Toolkittohelpguidethemunicipalitytomainstreamclimatechangemitigationandadaptationintooverallmunicipaldecisionmaking
b. Includes:
i. Riskassessmenttool
ii. Community‐basedvulnerabilityassessmentandriskmanagementtool
iii. Cost/benefitassessmenttool
iv. Environmentalimpactassessmenttool
v. Communicationsandoutreachtool
c. OriginalobjectivesoftheClimateSMARTinitiativehavebeencontinuedbyvariousgroupsinanadhocfashion
d. Projectoutcomesandconclusions
i. Overallobjectives:
1. ReduceHRM’sgreenhousegasemissions
2. IncreaseHRM’sresiliencetoclimatechangethroughavulnerabilityassessmentandincorporatedadaptationmeasures
3. IncorporateextremeweathereventanddisasterpreparednessinHRM
Source:http://www.halifax.ca/climate/
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Tasmania
ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessmentandAdaptationPlanningforMangroveSystems
I. Backgrounda. TheIPCC4thassessmentprojectedaglobalsealevelriseofupto.59mby2099,andsubsequent
authoritieshaveprojectedupto1mormore.b. MangroveaccretionratesareusuallylessthantheseprojectedratesofSLR,resultingindiebackat
theseawardedgeandinlandmigrationc. Proceduresareneededtoassessthevulnerabilityofmangrovesystemstoclimatechangeimpacts;
toplanactionsthathelpthosesystemsadapttothoseimpacts;andtosupportadaptationeffortsbymangrove‐dependentcommunities
II. Purposea. Methodsmanualisintendedforusebyconservationpractitionersandmangrovemanagerstocarry
outanassessmentofmangrovevulnerabilitytoclimatechange,leadingtoinformedandeffectiveadaptationplanning
b. Objectives:describemethodologiesandgiveexamplesforcarryingoutsuchavulnerabilityassessment;andtodemonstratehowtheresultscanbeanalyzedandappliedtoprioritizeadaptationactions
c. Thismanualprovidesguidanceforeachofthecomponentslistedbelowonwhatitis,whytodoit,hottocollectdata,howtoanalyzeresults,howtointerpretvulnerability,andwhatarethecomponent’sstrengthsandlimitations
III. Methods a. Agencies:GlobalEnvironmentalFacility,UNEnvironmentalProgramme,andWorldWildlifeFundb. Testedmangrovevulnerabilityassessmentmethodologiesandadaptationstrategiesin3countries:
Cameroon,Tanzania,andFijiIV. Pilotprojects:
a. Involvedinterdisciplinarydatacollectionusingbothhighandlowtechnologymethodsandanalysisofhoweachmethodhelpedtounderstandthevulnerabilityofaparticularmangroveecosystem
b. Alsousedthesevulnerabilityassessmentresultstoidentifyandtestarangeofadaptationoptionsc. Findingsguidedthedevelopmentofthisgeneralizedmethodology
V. MangroveClimateChangeVulnerabilityassessmentMethodologyComponents:a. Forestassessmentofmangrovesb. Recentspatialchangesofmangrovesc. Groundelevationsinandhindmangrovesd. Relativesealleveltrendse. Sedimentationratesundermangrovesf. Adjacentecosystemresilienceg. Climate(rainfall)modelingh. Compilationoflocalcommunityknowledge
VI. Synthesizingdataa. Vulnerabilityrankingbasedonresultsfromeachcomponentb. Facilitatestheidentificationofadaptationactionsthatreducetheidentifiedvulnerabilitiesand
increaseresiliencec. Threecategoriesofaction:reductionofexistingthreats,directadaptationactions,andongoing
monitoring
Source:http://worldwildlife.org/publications/climate‐change‐vulnerability‐assessment‐and‐adaptation‐planning‐for‐mangrove‐systems
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MISCELLANEOUS
FEMAClimateChangeAdaptationPolicyStatement
Purposeistoestablishanagency‐widedirectivetointegrateclimatechangeadaptationplanningandactionsintoAgencyprograms,policies,andoperations.
I. Challengesposedbyclimatechange
a. Couldsignificantlyalterthetypesandmagnitudesofhazardsfacedbycommunitiesandtheemergencymanagementprofessionalsservingthem
b. Impactsonmitigation,prepardedness,response,andrecoveryoperations
c. Resiliencyofcriticalinfrastructureandvariousemergencyassets
d. Climatechangecouldtriggerindirectimpactsthatincreasemissionrisks
II. 7initialactionstohelpintegrateclimatechangeadaptationconsiderationsintoourprogramsandoperations
a. Toenhanceclimateresearch,monitoring,andadaptationcapabilities,FEMAwillcontinuetoestablishpartnershipswithotheragenciesandorganizationsthatpossessclimatescienceandclimatechangeadaptationexpertise
b. FEMAwillcontinuetostudytheimpactsofclimatechangeonthenationalfloodinsuranceprogram(NFIP)andincorporateclimatechangeconsiderationsintheNFIPreformeffort
c. FEMAwillevaluatehowclimatechangeconsiderationscanbeincorporatedintograntinvestmentstrategieswithspecificfocusoninfrastructureandevaluationmethodologiesortoolssuchasbenefit/costanalysis
d. FEMAwillseektounderstandhowclimatechangewillimpactlocalcommunitiesandengagetheminaddressingthoseimpacts
e. FEMAwillpromotebuildingstandardsandpractices,bothwithinFEMAprogramsandingeneral,thatconsiderthefutureimpactsofclimatechange
f. Throughpartnershipswiththeclimatesciencecommunity,FEMAwillevaluatethepotentialimpactclimatechangemayhaveonexistingriskdataandthecorrespondingimplicationsforThreatHazardIdentificationRiskAssessment(THIRA)developmentandoperationalplanning
g. FEMAwillcontinuetopursueaflexible,scalable,wellequipped,andwelltrainedworkforcethatiseducatedaboutthepotentialimpactsofclimatechange
Source:http://stormsmart.org/wp‐content/blogs.dir/1/files/group‐documents/22/1328980794‐FEMACCAPolicyStatement12312.pdf
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IncorporatingSeaLevelChangeScenariosattheLocalLevelNOAA
I. Scenarioapproach
a. Usingtheinformationprovided,communitiescandevelopaprocessthatincorporatesarangeofpossibilitiesandfactors.Withthisinformationvariousscenarioscanbedeveloped,bothintermsofprojectionsandresponses,tomeetthespecificcircumstancesofacommunity.Moreover,workingthroughthescenariodevelopmentprocessprovidesthedataandinformationthatofficialswillneedtomakecommunitiesreadilyadaptabletochangingcircumstances
II. Definethecontext
a. Whattypeofplanisbeingdeveloped
i. Consideringarangeofpossibilitieslendsitselftotheadaptivemanagementstylerequiredinachangingenvironment
b. Whatscaleismeaningful
i. Localprojectionsshouldbeusedformostlocalandregionalcoastalplanningandmappingapplication
c. Whatisthecurrentpoliticalenvironment
i. Adaptivescenariosincorporatecomponentsthataremeasured(highlylikely)andthosethatarepredicted(lesscertain)
III. Determinewhichcomponentstoincludeinlocalprojectionscenarios
a. Mostscenariosarebasedonacombinationofhistoricallocalinformation,globalrates,andmodelsthatpredictfutureconditions
IV. Researchwhatothercommunitiesaredoing
V. Calculatesealevelchangescenarios
a. Scenariosthatincorporateglobalprojectionsandlocalchangerates
b. Scenariochosenshouldberelevanttothetimescaleofdecisionsbeingmade
c. Theselectedsealevelchangeincrementsshouldbederivedfromareputablesourceandtheverticaldistancebetweenincrementssupportedbytheverticalaccuracyofthelandelevationdata,particularlyifmapsofsealevelchangewillbeproduced
VI. Understanduncertainty
VII. Considerchangestofloodfrequencyandduration
a. Officialsmustfactorsinallcurrentflood‐producingevents,becausesealevelrisewilllikelyincreasethereach,frequency,anddurationof“normal”flooding
b. Tideheights,stormsurge,extremewaterlevels
VIII. Considerpotentialimpacts
IX. Communicatetheimpacts
a. Encouragethecitizenstobecomeknowledgeableandinvolvedintheprocess
b. Visualization
i. NOAA’sCoastalCountySnapshots:www.csc.noaa.gov/snapshots
ii. SeaLevelRiseandCoastalFloodingImpactsViewer:www.csc.noaa.gov/SLR
Source:http://csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/publications/slcscenarios
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ProtectingthePublicInterestthroughtheNationalCoastalZoneManagementProgram:HowCoastalStatesandTerritoriesUseNo‐BuildAreasalongOceanand
GreatLakeShorefrontsNRDC
I. StudyPurpose
a. TobetterunderstandandcommunicatehowstatesCMPs(CoastalManagementPlans)manageoceanandGreatLakeshorefrontdevelopment
b. Looksspecificallyatwherestatesareemployingshorefrontno‐buildareastoprotectthepublicinterest
c. AcompilationofthelawsandregulationsofthosestateswithfederallyapprovedCMPsthatincludeno‐buildareas,typicallyondry,privatelyownedland,alongtheiroceanand/orGreatLakeshorefrontsastheywereineffectinDecember2011
d. Reportsconsidersalooseandbroaddefinitionof“development”thatincludesresidentialstructures,hotels,motels,commercialestablishments,industrialfacilities,andthelike
II. Findings
a. 94%ofthe33coastalstateswithfederallyapprovedCMPshavearoleinregulatingshorefrontdevelopmentondryland
b. 81%ofthestatesthatregulateoceanorGreatLakeshorefrontdevelopment(outsideofsubmergedlands)employno‐buildareasalongsomeportionoftheirshorefront
c. Today,roughly36%ofthestatesthatemployno‐buildareasareusingerosionratestodelineatethemalongsomeportionoftheirshorefront
d. Inadditiontoerosionrates,shorefrontno‐buildareasaredelineatedanddefinedbasedon:
i. Fixeddistancesmeasuredhorizontallyfromreferencefeaturesthatrangefrom20to200feet
ii. Designatednaturalresourceareas,suchasbeaches,dunes,andbluffs
iii. Otherareasdesignatedbasedonplanecoordinatesormappeddistrictsorzones
e. OnlyMaineexplicitlyfactorsthepotentialforincreasesinSLRduringthe21stcenturyintoaprovisionthatestablishesthestate’sshorefrontno‐buildareas
Source:http://coastalmanagement.noaa.gov/resources/docs/nobuildareas.pdf
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AnAssessment:PolicyToolsforLocalAdaptationtoSLR
I. Location:MarinePolicyInstituteatMoteMarineLaboratory
II. LeadAgencies:
a. GulfCoastCommunityFoundationofVenice
III. ProjectDescription
a. high‐levelfoundationforfuturediscussionsoftheeffectsofglobalclimateonwater
Source:http://www.mote.org/clientuploads/MPI/Synopsis‐Policy%20Tools%20for%20Local%20Adaptation%20to%20Sea%20Level%20Rise(fin).pdf
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AdaptingtoClimateChange:APlanningGuideforStateCoastalManagers
I. Location
a. NOAA‐OfficeofOceanandCoastalResourceManagement
II. ProjectDescription
a. ThepurposeofthisguideistohelpU.S.stateandterritorial(state)coastalmanagersdevelopandimplementadaptationplanstoreducetheimpactsandconsequencesofclimatechangeandclimatevariability(climatechange)intheirpurview.ItwaswritteninresponsetoarequestfromstatecoastalmanagersforguidancefromtheNationalandOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)onadaptationplanninginthecoastalzone.Itisintendedasanaid,notasaprescribeddirective,andastatemaychoosetouseindividualstepsorchaptersortheentireguide,dependingonwheretheyareintheplanningprocess.
Source:http://coastalmanagement.noaa.gov/climate/docs/adaptationguide.pdf
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IncreasingCommunityResiliencetoFutureHurricaneStormSurgeCollaborative Decision Support in Sarasota, FL
I. LeadAgencies
a. PennStateUniversity
b. USGeologicalSurvey
II. ProjectDescription
a. Thegoaloftheproposedresearchistodevelopamethodologythathelpslocalgovernmentofficialsandplannersunderstandarangeofoptionsthatallowcoastalcommunitiestogrowtheirpopulationsanddeveloptheireconomiesandinfrastructureswithlessriskofsignificantlossfromfuturehurricanestormsurges.Toreachthatgoal,theinvestigatorswillconductacasestudybasedinSarasota,Floridawheretheywillworkwithofficials,planners,andotherstakeholderstoincludescenariosofsealevelriseinlong‐rangeplanningactivitiesandextendthoseactivitiestohorizonsmoreinlinewithsealevelriseprojections.
Source:www.cpo.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=./cpo_pa/cpo_pa_index.jsp&pa=sarp&sub=projects/abstracts/2007/byarnal.jsp
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EffectsofNear‐termSLRonCoastalInfrastructure
I. LeadAgencies
a. StrategicEnvironmentalResearchandDevelopmentProgram(SERDP)
b. EnvironmentalSecurityTechnologyCertificationProgram(ESTCP)
II. ProjectDescription
a. Theprimarygoalofthisprojectistoquantifythepotentialimpactandrisktocoastalmilitaryinfrastructurefromnear‐termsea‐levelriseandtheattendantincreasesinhurricaneactivity.Specificobjectivesinclude:(1)identifyandquantifytheresponsesofcoastalsystemcomponentstosea‐levelriseoverthenextcentury;(2)refinealarge‐scalenumericalmodelforquantifyingthehazardrisktocoastalmilitaryfacilities;(3)developprobabilitymodelsforquantifyingandmanaginguncertainty;and(4)enablecost‐effectivemitigationandadaptationstrategies.
Source:http://www.serdp.org/Program‐Areas/Resource‐Conservation‐and‐Climate‐Change/Climate‐Change/Vulnerability‐and‐Impact‐Assessment/RC‐1700
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ImplicationsofTakingsLawonInnovativePlanningForSeaLevelRiseinTheGulfofMexico
I. LeadAgencies
a. TexasSeaGrant
b. FloridaSeaGrant
c. LouisianaSeaGrant
d. Mississippi/AlabamaSeaGrantConsortium
II. ProjectDescription
a. Thisprojectwillspecificallyseektoaddressthisfearthrough(1)legalanalysisofexistingtakingsjurisprudenceandlaws,(2)developmentoflegalargumentsthatconsidertheimperativeofsea‐levelrise,and(3)identificationanddevelopmentofspecific,innovativelandusepoliciesdesignedtowithstandtakingsclaims.
b. InPhaseIoftheproject,theco‐PIswillprovideafresh,comprehensiveexaminationoftakingslawinFlorida,Alabama,Mississippi,Louisiana,andTexastoprovideafoundationforaddressingthesourceofregulatoryhesitancyinPhaseIIanddevelopinginnovativelanduseplanningpoliciesforadaptationtotheGOM’schanginglandscapeinboththeshortandlongtermthatareresistanttotakingsclaimsinPhaseIII.
Source:http://www.masgc.org/page.asp?id=511
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AParameterizedClimateChangeProjectionModelforHurricaneFlooding,WaveAction,EconomicDamages,andPopulationDynamics
I. LeadAgencies
a. TexasSeagrant
b. FloridaSeagrant
c. LouisianaSeagrant
d. Mississippi/Alabamaseagrantconsortium
II. Projectgoal
a. Ourprojectgoalistoquantifythepotentialimpactofsealevelriseandhurricaneintensificationonhurricane‐inducedeconomicdamagesandonpopulationdynamicsatthecoast.
III. Objectives
a. Todevelopageneral,parameterizedresponsemodelforhurricanefloodelevationandwavedamagepotentialasafunctionofSLRandhurricaneintensification.
b. TodeterminepotentialaccelerationinhurricanefloodelevationandwaveheightprobabilityasafunctionofSLRandhurricaneintensification.
c. Todeterminepotentialaccelerationinhurricane‐inducedeconomicdamagesandpopulationaffectedatthecoastduetoacceleratingfloodelevationandwaveheightprobability.
d. Todeterminepotentialshortandlong‐termshiftsinpopulationdynamicsatlocalandregionallevelsaswellasthesocioeconomicdimensionsofsuchshifts.
Source:http://www.masgc.org/page.asp?id=509
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WorldResources2010‐2011:DecisionMakinginaChangingClimate–AdaptationChallengedandChoices
I. LeadAgencies
a. WorldResourcesInstitute(WRI)
b. UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme
c. UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme
d. WorldBank
II. Projectdescription
a. This publication explores five key elements ‐ public engagement, decision‐relevant information,institutional design, tools for planning and policymaking, and resources ‐ that we believe willsignificantlystrengthentheabilityofnationalgovernmentstomakeeffectiveadaptationdecisions.Ourargumentsforwhydecisionmakersshouldfocusontheseelementsarebasedupontheresultsofawide‐rangingandinteractiveresearchprogram.Over100adaptationexperts,publicofficials,sector‐based practitioners, and civil society representatives, from more than 30 countries,contributedtoourresearcheffort.
III. Project/actions/conclusions
a. Updatingthecomprehensiveplanstoaddresstheimpactsofsealevelrise,increasingtheheightoftheseawall,anddevelopinganinstitutionalframeworkforaddressingclimatechange
Source:http://pdf.wri.org/world_resources_report_2010‐2011.pdf
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StateandLocalGovernmentsPlanforDevelopmentofMostLandVulnerabletoRisingSeaLevelalongtheUSAtlanticCoast
I. Overview
a. Onthebasisof131stateandlocallanduseplans,weestimatethatalmost60%ofthelandbelow1meteralongtheUSAtlanticcoastisexpectedtobedevelopedandthusunavailablefortheinlandmigrationofwetlands
b. Resultssuggestthatshoreprotectiondoeshaveacumulativeimpact.IfSLRistakenintoaccount,wetlandpoliciesthatpreviouslyseemedtocomplywithfederallawprobablyviolatetheCleanWaterAct
c. Thislettermapsandquantifiesabaseline,business‐as‐usualscenarioofcoastaldevelopmentandshoreprotectionfortheAtlanticcoastoftheUSfromMAtoFL.
II. Purpose
a. Withthisanalysis,plannersfromthelocaltonationallevelcanassesstheextenttowhichcoastalwetlandsmightmigrateinlandorbelost(andidentifyinfrastructurethatwouldeventuallyrequireremedialattention)andthenevaluateotheroptions
III. Predictions
a. GlobalSLRofapproximately20‐60cmduringthe21stcenturyifpolaricesheetsremainstablebutpossiblymorethan1meterificesheetsbecomeunstable
b. Twopathways:shoreprotectionandretreat
IV. ResultsandImplications
a. Consideringourentirestudyarea,42%ofthedrylandwithin1meterabovethetidalwetlandsisdevelopedandmostlikelytobeprotectedgivenbusiness‐as‐usual
b. Almost60%ofthelowestdrylandislikelytobedevelopedandeventuallyprotectedasSLR.
c. Bycontrast,only9%ofthislandhasbeensetasideforconservationpurposesthatwouldallowcoastalecosystemstomigrateinland
d. Mapsprovidedbythisstudycanserveasaninitialbenchmarkforevaluatingtheenvironmentalconsequencesofthebusiness‐as‐usualresponsetoSLRandpossiblealternativesthatwouldbetterpreservetheenvironmentandcomplywiththelaw.
Source:http://iopscience.iop.org/1748‐9326/4/4/044008/fulltext/
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HotspotofAcceleratedSea‐LevelRiseontheAtlanticCoastofNorthAmerica
I. Researchpurposea. PresentsevidenceofrecentlyacceleratedSLRinaunique1,000‐kmlonghotspotonthehighly
populatedNorthAmericanAtlanticcoastnorthofCapeHatterasandshowthatitisconsistentwithamodeledfingerprintofdynamicSLR
II. Findingsa. Between1950‐1979and1980‐2009,SLRrateincreasesinthisnortheasthotspotwereabout3‐4
timeshigherthantheglobalaverageb. Theyanalyzedtide‐gaugerecordsalongtheNorthAmericanAtlanticcoastforincreasingratesof
SLRIII. Results
a. SLRsuperimposedonstormsurge,waverun‐up,andset‐upwillincreasethevulnerabilityofcoastalcitiestoflooding,andbeachesandwetlandstodeterioration
Source:http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1597.html
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
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SLRHORIZONYEARANDPROJECTIONSTABLE
Year and Location Minimum (or Median)
Maximum
2025: SW/Charlotte Harbor, FL 1.8 11.3
2025: Treasure Coast, FL 2.8 10.7
2030: FL DOT 3 7
2030: SE FL Compact 3 7
2050: CA 12 18
2050: Central & South WA 5
2050: Olympic Peninsula, WA 0
2050: Puget Sound, WA 6
2050: San Diego 10 17
2050: San Fran 16
2050: Satellite Beach, FL 24
2050: South Florida 5 20
2050: SW/Charlotte Harbor, FL 3.5 22.6
2050: Tampa Bay, FL 1.8 11
2060: FL DOT 9 24
2060: SE FL Compact 9 24
2075: SW/Charlotte Harbor, FL 5.3 34
2100: Aus 31
2100: CA 21 55
2100: Central & South WA 11
2100: DE 13
2100: Florida 20 39
2100: Georgia 39.6
2100: LA 39.6
2100: Lewes, DE 19.2 58.8
2100: NC 39.6
2100: Olympic Peninsula, WA 1
2100: Puget Sound, WA 13
2100: San Diego 31 69
2100: San Fran 55
2100: Sarasota County, FL 31.5 79
2100: SE Florida 24 48
2100: SW/Charlotte Harbor, FL 7.1 45.3
2100: Tampa Bay, FL 3.9 26
2100: Treasure Coast, FL 21 177.3
2150: East Central FL 12
2200: Tampa Bay, FL 8.7 77
Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013
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SLRPROJECTIONSGRAPH
0 50 100 150 200
2025: SW/Charlotte Harbor, FL
2025: Treasure Coast, FL
2030: FL DOT
2030: SE FL Compact
2050: CA
2050: Central & South WA
2050: Olympic Peninsula, WA
2050: Puget Sound, WA
2050: San Diego
2050: San Fran
2050: Satellite Beach, FL
2050: South Florida
2050: SW/Charlotte Harbor, FL
2050: Tampa Bay, FL
2060: FL DOT
2060: SE FL Compact
2075: SW/Charlotte Harbor, FL
2100: Aus
2100: CA
2100: Central & South WA
2100: DE
2100: Florida
2100: Georgia
2100: LA
2100: Lewes, DE
2100: NC
2100: Olympic Peninsula, WA
2100: Puget Sound, WA
2100: San Diego
2100: San Fran
2100: Sarasota County, FL
2100: SE Florida
2100: SW/Charlotte Harbor, FL
2100: Tampa Bay, FL
2100: Treasure Coast, FL
2150: East Central FL
2200: Tampa Bay, FL
SLR in Inches
Year and Location
Minimum (or Median)
Maximum