HitunganEVALUASI EKONOMI

Evaluasi ini dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk memperkirakan kelayakan pendirian pabrik Etilen oksid ini ditinjau dari sudut ekonomi. Parameter untuk mengukur kelayakan suatu proyek adalah ROI ( Return On Investmen ), POT ( Pay Out Time ), BEP ( Break Even Point ) dan DCFRR ( Discounted Cash Flow Rate of Return ). Estimasi biaya dilakukan dengan jalan membaca grafik - grafik biaya pada tahun 2010 ( Peters, 2003 ) kemudian diestimasi harga untuk tahun 2016 dengan menggunakan indeks harga. Indeks harga tahun 2002 adalah 413.2 dan indeks harga tahun 2016 adalah 425,98. Pada evaluasi ini kurs dollar terhadap rupiah diambil 1 US $ = Rp 10000. Perbandingan tenaga kerja asing dan tenaga kerja asing dan tenaga kerja lokal adalah 5 : 95. Upah pekerja asing US $ 20/manhour dan upah pekerja lokal Rp 20000/manhour. Perbandingan manhour pekerja asing 1 : 2 manhour pekerja lokal. Fixed capital dipinjam pada bank sebesar 25 % dengan bunga 7 %. Working capitaldipinjam sebesar 50 % dengan bunga 15 %. Pabrik Etilen Oksid ini termasuk pabrik beresiko rendah.

Kebutuhan operator untuk prosesNoAlatUnitoperator/unit/shiftoperator/shift1Reaktor10.50.52Absorber20.513Menara distilasi10.50.54Kompresor30.20.65Heat exchanger80.10.8Total3.4

Untuk proses diperlukan 4 operator/shift maka untuk 4 shift diperlukan operator sebanyak16 operator

Kebutuhan operator untuk unit utilitasNoAlatUnitoperator/unit/shiftoperator/shift1Ion exchanger60.532Unit pembangkit steam11.013Unit pembangkit listrik11.014Blower20.20.45Sand filter10.1250.125Total5.525Unit utilitas memerlukan 6 operator/shift maka untuk 4 shift diperlukan operator sebanyak24 operator.Purchased equipment cost untuk alat prosesNo.Jenis AlatUnitHarga, US $1Reaktor-0113345326.892Quenching tower-011116882.053Absorber-01182271.574IC-0111569.595IC-021106836.686CL-01198884.097CL-02117788.678HT-01151691.799HE-01181827.9010HE-02194803.1611HE-031106836.6812P-01115277.3313P-0212615.9814P-0318161.8615P-0413453.1016Menara distilasi-011122427.9317RB-01185490.2718CD-01142588.1819GH-011547054.0220T-01137879.4121T-021286816.1922T-0319522.1723C-011166690.3324C-021197663.5525C-0313515669.6326C-0413665513.0427C-0511165890.561.1Modal Tetap ( Fixed Capital )Komponen modal tetap terdiri atas :1Purchased equipment cost ( PEC) =$13,977,4332Delivered cost = 0,20 PEC =$2,795,487$16,772,9193Instalasi 43 % PEC Material = 11 % PEC=$1,537,518Labor = 32 % PEC=$4,472,778Ongkos tenaga asing=$223,639Ongkos tenaga lokal=Rp12,747,418,5384Isolasi 8 % PECMaterial = 3 % PEC=$419,323Labor = 5 % PEC=$698,872Ongkos tenaga asing=$34,944Ongkos tenaga lokal=Rp1,991,784,1475Pemipaan 66 % PECMaterial = 36 % PEC=$5,031,876Labor = 30 % PEC=$4,193,230Ongkos tenaga asing=$209,661$9,434,767Ongkos tenaga lokal=Rp11,950,704,8797Instrumentasi 6 % PECMaterial = 5 % PEC=$698,872Labor = 1 % PEC=$139,774Ongkos tenaga asing=$6,989Ongkos tenaga lokal=Rp398,356,8298Instalasi listrik 12 % PECMaterial = 7 % PEC=$978,420Labor = 5 % PEC=$698,872Ongkos tenaga asing=$34,944Ongkos tenaga lokal=Rp1,991,784,1479Tanah dan perbaikannya1 m2 = Rp 1000000Luas = 45000 m2Biaya=Rp45,000,000,00010BangunanLuas = 8500 m21 m2 = Rp 2500000Biaya=Rp21,250,000,00011UtilitasPurchased equipment cost tiap alat pada unit utilitasNo.Jenis AlatUnitHargaUS$Rp1Bak Penampung dan pengendap awal1.0013,852,7642Tangki Penggumpal1.0065,1773Tangki Larutan Alum1.003,6954Tangki Larutan Soda Abu1.001,3855Clarifier1.0038,9156Sand Filter1.008,5287Cooling tower1.001,240,7088kation exchanger3.0048,9719anion exchanger3.0048,97110Tangki Demineralisasi1.00157,48211Deaerator4.00483,19812Tangki penampung air tersaring1.0016,675,92513Tangki air sanitasi1.003,462,79914Tangki air PDAM1.00789,28115Tangki NaCl1.002,82516Tangki NaOH1.005,65117Tangki kaporit1.0031418Hot Basin1.00336,863,92319Cold basin1.00115,366,53220Pompa air sungai1.0010,88221Pompa bak pengendap awal1.0010,88222Pompa bak penggumpal1.0010,88223Pompa clarifier1.0010,88224Pompa sand filter1.0010,88225Pompa air sanitasi3.0010,35926Pompa air PDAM R2.0020927Pompa CT4.0097,10528Pompa air hasil CT4.0097,10529Pompa air ke proses4.0097,10530Pompa cation ex1.009,10431Pompa ke anion ex3.0019,77732Pompa ion ex1.009,10433Pompa deaerator2.0018,20734Pompa tangki alum R1.0010535Pompa tangki soda abu R1.0010536Pompa bahan bakar1.005,96437Pompa ke bak air pendingin1.006,59238Pompa kaporit R1.0010539Steam boiler1.002,840,95640Furnance dowtherm1.00653,78641Blower1.00118,45242Tangki bahan bakar1.00200,17543Kompresor udara tekan1.0052,73844Steam turbine1.00802,46545Tangki udara1.008,476Total7,208,226487,011,224

Instalasi 43 % PECUS$RpMaterial = 11 % PEC792,90553,571,235Labour = 32 % PEC2,306,632155,843,592Biaya transportasi ke lokasi (20 % PEC + 5 % kurs PEC)1,802,0560Biaya tenaga asing116,1110Biaya tenaga lokal0.0006,618,317,326Biaya total utilitas =$9,919,298+Rp7,158,899,785Hasil perhitungan Fixed CapitalNo.Type of capital investmentUS$Rp1Purchased equipment13,977,4332Delivered cost2,795,4873Instalasi1,761,15712,747,418,5384Pemipaan5,241,53711,950,704,8795Instrumentasi dan kontrol705,860398,356,8296Isolasi454,2671,991,784,1477Alat - alat listrik1,013,3641,991,784,1478Tanah dan perbaikannya45,000,000,0009Gedung21,250,000,00010Utilitas9,919,2987,158,899,785Phiysical Plant Cost( PPC )35,868,402102,488,948,32411Teknik dan konstruksi 20 % PPC7,173,68020,497,789,665Direct Plant Cost ( DPC )43,042,082122,986,737,98912Biaya kontraktor 5 % DPC2,152,1046,149,336,89913Biaya tak terduga 15 % DPC6,456,31218,448,010,698Fixed Capital (FC)51,650,498147,584,085,587

Faktor LangFC/DEC =3.96

1.2Sales ( S ) Harga jual = $ 1.05/lbProduksi = 50000 ton/thn6,390kg/jamSales ( S ) =$117,152,9041.3Total Manufacturing Cost ( TMC )Komponen manufacturing costDirect Manufacturing Cost1Bahan bakuHarga Etilen = $ 0.3/lbKebutuhan = 7360.65kg/jamHarga total =38555779.07$/tahunHarga Dowtherm A = $ 3/kgKebutuhan = 3.60kg/jamHarga total = 85536.00Harga total =$38,641,315.07/tahun2Direct laborJabatanPendidikanJumlahGaji/orang/bulanGaji total/tahunPresiden DirekturS-1120,000,000240,000,000.00Direktur UtamaS-1115,000,000180,000,000.00DirekturS-2410,000,000480,000,000.00SekretarisS-113,000,00036,000,000.00Senior ManagerS-167,500,000540,000,000.00ManagerS-1226,000,0001,584,000,000.00EngineerS-1144,000,000672,000,000.00Kepala ShiftD-3183,500,000756,000,000.00Staff SeniorS-1132,500,000390,000,000.00Pegawai Staff ID-3202,000,000480,000,000.00Pegawai Staff IISMK121,750,000252,000,000.00AnalisSMK113,000,000396,000,000.00OperatorD-3403,000,0001,440,000,000.00Security HeadSMK41,750,00084,000,000.00SecuritySMK91,500,000162,000,000.00Jumlah1767,692,000,000.00Labor cost ==Rp1,440,000,0003Supervisi 15 % labor=Rp216,000,0004Maintenance 6 % FC =$3,099,030danRp39,845,344,042.60ok=Rp8,855,045,1355Plant supplies15 % maintenance=$464,854danRp5,976,801,606.39=Rp1,328,256,7706Katalis dan pelarutHarga =$181.0per kgKebutuhan =88808.60kg181.0125Umur =5tahunHarga total =$3,215,0937Biaya laboratorium10 % labor=Rp144,000,0008Patent dan royalti3 % sales=$3,514,5879UtilitasNama BahanKebutuhanHargaBiayakg/thnRp/kg Rp/thnAlum (tawas)35,068.53160056,109,652Ca(OCl)2 (Kaporit)1,320.0029253,861,000NaCl213,189.8820042,637,977Zeolit1,074,648.6050005,373,243,023NaOH193,979.893000581,939,678Fuel Oil 12,576,896.19702888,388,613,658Dowtherm A86,585.93300002,597,577,806Biaya Pengadaan Listrik (MW)0.0000Pembelian bahan untuk utilitasRp97,043,982,793.06Total=$0+Rp97,043,982,793Direct Manufacturing Cost=Rp109,027,284,699danRp598,376,082,669.74ok=$48,934,880Indirect Manufacturing Cost1Payroll overhead 20 % labor cost=Rp288,000,0002Plant overhead50 % labor cost=Rp720,000,0003Packaging and Shipping3 % sales=Rp35,145,871,151Indirect Manufacturing Cost =Rp36,153,871,151Fixed Manufacturing Cost1Pajak 3 % FC=$1,549,515dan=Rp4,427,522,5682Asuransi 1 % FC=$516,505dan=Rp1,475,840,8563Depresiasi =$5,165,050danDepresiasi alat 10 % FC=Rp14,758,408,559

Fixed Manufacturing Cost =$7,231,070danRp92,972,469,432.74okRp20,661,771,982

Total Manufacturing Cost =$56,165,950danRp727,502,423,252.98okRp165,842,927,831

1.3WORKING CAPITAL ( WC )Komponen modal kerja terdiri atas :1Raw material 1Lama penyimpanan 1 bulan untuk bahan baku=$3,220,110Biaya = Harga Raw material (selama 1 bulan)2In - Process inventoryLama bahan didalam proses diperkirakan 1hari=$85,100danRp1,102,276,398.87okBiaya = 1/2 MC (selama 1 hari) =Rp251,277,1633Product InventoryLama penyimpanan 1 minggu=$1,170,124danRp15,156,300,484.44okBiaya = MC (0.25 bulan )=Rp3,455,060,9964Extended CreditBerupa cadangan kredit untuk Customer selama 1 bulan=$9,762,742Biaya = Sales Value (Selama 1 Bulan)5Available CashUntuk pembagian gaji, service dan material=$4,680,496danRp60,625,201,937.75okBiaya = MC (1 Bulan )=Rp13,820,243,986

Working Capital=$18,918,571danRp206,712,294,579.18okRp17,526,582,146

Total Capital Investment (TCI)=$70,569,069danRp870,801,361,955.91ok(FC + WC)Rp165,110,667,7321.4GENERAL EXPENSE ( GE )Pengeluaran umum meliputi1Biaya administrasi 2 % SalesTotal=$2,343,0582Biaya distribusi 2 % SalesTotal=$2,343,0583Penelitian dan pengembangan 2 % SalesTotal=$2,343,0584Financing Interest 12 % FC + 15 % WC=$9,035,845dan=Rp20,339,077,5925Bunga bank 12 % TCI=$8,468,288=Rp19,813,280,127.89General Expense=$24,533,308danRp285,485,438,007.79okRp40,152,357,720

PERHITUNGAN KELAYAKAN EKONOMIA.PROFIT ( P )Total Production Cost =TMC + GE=$80,699,258dan=Rp205,995,285,551Dikonversi dalam rupiah=Rp1,012,987,861,261Profit sebelum pajak = Sales - Total Production Cost=Rp158,541,177,089

Profit setelah pajak ( pajak pendapatan 50 % )=Rp79,270,588,545B.RETURN ON INVESTMENT ( ROI )

ROI sebelum pajak=23.87%ROI before taxes = Profit before taxes / Fixed Capital * 100%ROI setelah pajak=11.94%ROI after taxes = Profit after taxes / Fixed Capital* 100%Pabrik beresiko rendah, ROI>11%, Table 54 Aries NewtonPabrik beresiko tinggi, ROI>44%

C.PAY OUT TIME ( POT )

POT sebelum pajak=2.95tahunPOT before taxes = Fixed Capital / ( Profit before taxes + Depreciation )POT setelah pajak=4.56tahunPOT after taxes = Fixed Capital / ( Profit after taxes + Depreciation )Pabrik beresiko rendah, POT< 5 tahun (Table 55 Aries Newton)Pabrik beresiko tinggi, POT< 2 tahun (Table 55 Aries Newton)D.Break Even Point ( BEP )DenganFa = Fixed Cost yang meliputiDepresiasi=Rp66,408,906,738Pajak=Rp19,922,672,021Asuransi=Rp6,640,890,674Total=Rp92,972,469,433Va = Variable Cost yang meliputiBahan baku=Rp386,413,150,747Utilitas=Rp97,043,982,793Packaging and Shipping=Rp35,145,871,151Paten dan royalti=Rp35,145,871,151Katalis dan pelarut=Rp32,150,932,330Total=Rp585,899,808,171

Ra = Regulated Cost yang meliputiLabor=Rp1,440,000,000Supervisi=Rp216,000,000Laboratorium=Rp144,000,000Plant overhead=Rp720,000,000Payroll overhead=Rp288,000,000Maintenance=Rp39,845,344,043Plant supplies=Rp5,976,801,606General expense=Rp285,485,438,008Total=Rp334,115,583,657Z = kapasitas produksi maksimum pertahunZ =50000ton/tahunBreak Even Point=27463.833ton/tahun=54.928%Ukuran kelayakan 40 % < BEP < 60 %E.SHUT DOWN POINT ( SDP )Shut Down Point=14248.067ton/tahun=28.496%F.DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW RATE OF RETURN ( DCFRR )Bila annual cashflow dianggap tetap, maka :Dengann = umur pabrik=10tahunSV = salvage value = =Rp66,408,906,738C = cash flow, terdiri atasProfit setelah pajak=Rp79,270,588,545Depresiasi=Rp66,408,906,738Finance=Rp110,697,532,272Total=Rp256,377,027,554i = DCFRR Dari hasil perhitungan diperolehDCFRR = i=0.276301-2814.71484375=27.6301%Bunga bank diperkirakan sebesar 12 %Berdasarkan hasil analisis dapat disimpulkan bahwa pabrik Etilen Oksid ini cukupmenarik untuk dikaji lebih lanjut.

AnalisisNoParameterProfit (Rp)ROI (%)POT (tahun)BEP (%)SDP (%)DCFRR (%)Before taxAfter TaxBefore taxAfter TaxBefore taxAfter Tax1FC turun 10 %78,219,577,323.0839,109,788,661.5439.61619.8082.0153.35539.36113.12521.057Data awal71,841,663,798.9635,920,831,899.4832.74716.3732.3393.79243.70513.95718.947FC naik 10 %65,463,750,274.8332,731,875,137.4127.12713.5632.6934.24448.24514.82717.0802Sales turun 10 %28,162,397,861.3814,081,198,930.6912.8376.4184.3796.09168.53321.35811.153Data awal71,841,663,798.9635,920,831,899.4832.74716.3732.3393.79243.70513.95718.947Sales naik 10 %115,520,929,736.5357,760,464,868.2752.65726.3281.5962.75332.27210.55026.3463Harga bahan baku turun 10 %101,367,003,664.5150,683,501,832.2646.20523.1031.7793.02134.89910.97224.506Data awal71,841,663,798.9635,920,831,899.4832.74716.3732.3393.79243.70513.95718.947Harga bahan baku naik 10 %42,316,323,933.4021,158,161,966.7019.2899.6443.4145.09158.17118.86113.5344PEC turun 10 %76,764,317,495.6838,382,158,747.8437.91718.9592.0873.45340.33613.31220.551Data awal71,841,663,798.9635,920,831,899.4832.74716.3732.3393.79243.70513.95718.947PEC naik 10 %66,919,010,102.2333,459,505,051.1228.31714.1592.6104.13947.19114.62517.487Data awal158,541,177,089.2379,270,588,544.6123.87311.9372.9524.55954.92828.49627.630

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