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A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018

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Page 1: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

A.M. Best Bermuda

Insurance Market Briefing 2018

October 16, 2018

Page 2: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Agenda

2

Introductions

Reinsurance – Robert DeRose

Mortgage and Tax – Steven Chirico

Innovation – Sridhar Manyem

Q&A

Page 3: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Reinsurance Market

Overview and Trends

Robert DeRose

Senior Director, Global Reinsurance Ratings

Page 4: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Discussion Outline

4

Global Reinsurance Results and Trends

Global Reinsurance Market Capacity

Global Reinsurance Market Evolution

Global Reinsurance Sector Outlook

Tax Cuts & Jobs Act

Page 5: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Segment Outlook – Global Reinsurance

Headwinds Tailwinds

Intense competition Cession rates increasing

Increasing interest from third party capital Cat losses temporarily stabilize rates

Earnings stabilize but remain under pressure Favorable reserve development, but waning

Excess capacity hinders further improvement Strong risk-adjusted capital

Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates

M&A

Although capitalization remains strong and rate deterioration temporarily halted, pressure on margins

continues. Over the intermediate term, returns for some reinsurers will fall short on a risk-adjusted basis.

Maintain negative market outlook.

5

Page 6: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Reinsurance

Results and Trends

6

Page 7: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Reinsurance Market Trends

2017 represented the most significant year for catastrophe losses since

2011.

Hurricane Harvey, Irma, Maria combined with Earthquake in Mexico

and Wildfire in California produced industry

losses in the range of USD 80 to 100 billion.

Despite timing of these events, negative reserve

surprises have been limited thus far.

7

Page 8: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Reinsurance Market Trends

Overall 2017 catastrophes amounted to an earnings events as rated balance sheets emerged flat for the year.

Alternative capital did participate in the events in a meaningful way resulting in collateral locks prior and through the 1/1 and mid year renewal periods

Alternative capital investors were NOT hindered by the losses and brought additional capacity to the market for the renewals.

8

Page 9: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Reinsurance Market Trends

Optimism that followed quickly

faded as January renewal

negations progressed.

Significant push back from Clients not

impacted by losses. But

hope lingered into the June / July Renewal.

Overall, reinsurance

pricing stabilized. More

pronounced improvement in

underlying business

As a result pricing is not

optimal for certain classes and structures but there are opportunities

out there...

9

Page 10: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Total Economic and Insured Losses (USD billions)

2017 2016Annual Change

(%)

10-Year

Average

% of 10-Year

Average Economic

Losses

Economic Losses

Natural

Catastrophe300 178 69% 178

Man-made 6 10 -42% 12

Total 306 188 63% 190

Insured Losses

Natural Catastrophe 131 56 133% 51 29%

Man-made 5 8 -45% 7 58%

Total 136 65 110% 58 31%

Source: Swiss Re Institute

10

Page 11: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Reinsurance Market Trends

55.9% 56.2% 56.2%60.6%

76.5%

60.6%

61.1%

31.9%33.5%

34.2%34.7%

33.6%

33.9% 33.6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 5yr Avg

Loss Ratio Expense Ratio Loss Reserve Development

Global Reinsurance Sector – Combined Ratio

Source: A.M. Best data and research

11

Page 12: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

86.8 88.1 90.097.9

114.0

95.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20181H

Combined Ratio by Reinsurance Sector

European “Big Four” U.S. & Bermuda Lloyd’s

86.6 87.490.7 92.5

109.0

92.9

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q2

Loss Ratio Expense Ratio

89.392.4 91.8

96.3

109.0

95.0

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20181H

Source: A.M. Best data and research

12

2018

1H

Page 13: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Reinsurance Market Trends

13.0%

11.6%

9.5%

8.3%

-0.3%

7.0%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1

Return on Equity Five-Year Average

Return on Equity (2013 to present) and Five-Year Average

Source: A.M. Best data and research

13

Page 14: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Reinsurance Market Trends

Five-Year Average

2017

13.1%

11.0% 11.5%

9.7%

2.7%

9.3%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20181H

11.4% 10.9%

7.5% 6.8%

-0.5%

6.0%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20181H

16.2%

14.7%

8.9%8.1%

-7.3%

4.3%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20181H

European “Big Four” U.S. & Bermuda Lloyd’s

Return on Equity by Reinsurance Sector

Source: A.M. Best data and research

14

Page 15: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Reinsurance Market Trends

Global Reinsurance Market

5 Year Average Return on Equity Less Reserve Development

10.9%

8.3%

6.8%

4.5%

Composite at YE2016 Composite at YE2017

5 Year Average Return on Equity

5 Year Average Return on Equity excluding Loss Reserve Development

Source: A.M. Best data and research

15

Page 16: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Reinsurance Market Trends

Global Reinsurance – Price/Book Value (Excluding accumulated other comprehensive income)

16

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Pri

ce/B

oo

k V

alu

e

Years

Average

Current P/BV: 1.17x

Average 1994-Present: 1.16x

Low Reached March 2009 (0.75x BV)

Peak reached February 2002 (1.83x BV)

1.0x P/BV

Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, A.M. Best research

Page 17: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Reinsurance

Market Capacity

17

Page 18: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Reinsurance Market Capacity

Top 10 Global Reinsurance Groups: Non-Life

Munich Reinsurance Company

Swiss Re Ltd.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

Lloyd’s

Hannover Ruck SE

SCOR S.E.

Everest Re Group Ltd.

XL Group plc

Transatlantic Holdings, Inc.

PartnerRe Ltd.

Top 10 Global Reinsurance Groups: Life

Munich Reinsurance Company

Swiss Re Ltd.

Reinsurance Group of America Inc.

SCOR S.E.

Hannover Ruck SE

Great West Lifeco

Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

Pacific LifeCorp

PartnerRe Ltd.

Assicurazioni Generali SpA

Source: A.M. Best data and research. Ranked by unaffiliated gross premium written in 2017.

18

Page 19: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Reinsurance Market Capacity

Rank 1-1070.2%

Rank 11-2015.5%

Rank 21-307.2%

Rank 31-404.6%

Rank 41-502.5%

Life and Non-Life Reinsurance GPW Distribution by Ranking

19

Page 20: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Reinsurance Market Capacity

292 320

340 332 345 345 362

19

48

60 68 75 87

100

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E

ConvergenceCapacity

TraditionalCapacity

Estimate for Total Dedicated Reinsurance Capacity (USD billions)

Source: Guy Carpenter and A.M. Best

20

Page 21: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Market Trends

71bn

23bn

6bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Reinsurance SponsoredManagers

Dedicated Insurance-linkedsecurities (ILS) Managers

Estimate for Total DedicatedReinsurance Capacity:

Convergence Capacity

(2018 estimated) (USD billions)

Source: A.M. Best data and research

21

Page 22: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Shareholders' Equity Plus Cumulative Share

Repurchases and Dividends

191.5 205.7 198.4 202.1 203.3 196.6

4.9

12.1 15.3 21.3 26.3

27.8 1.5 8.5 14.1

19.4 25.5

30.5

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1

Shareholders' Equity (End of Period) Share Repurchases Dividends Paid

22

Page 23: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Market

Evolution

23

Page 24: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Market Landscape ~10 Years In Time

Fidelis

Greenlight Re

Hamilton

Harrington Re

Humboldt Re

Kevin Re

Lumen Re

Maiden Re

Third Point Re

Watford Re

Ariel Re

Flagstone

Harbor Point / Max (Alterra)

IPC Re

Montpellier

New Castle Re

Paris Re

Platinum Re

Allied World

Endurance(Sompo Intl)

General Re

MS Amlin

Odyssey Re

National Indemnity

Partner Re

Tokio Millennium Re

TransRe

Validus

XL Catlin

Arch

Aspen

AXIS

Everest Re

Hannover Re

Lloyd’s

Munich Re

RenaissanceRe

SCOR Re

Swiss Re

“Global” Franchises

Sheltered Franchises

Franchises That Are Gone

What Does The Future Hold?

24

Page 25: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

The Case for M&A

Broader product capability

Broader geographic reach

Greater influence

Greater attractiveness to alternative capital

Opportunity for growth

Alternatively…

M&A is the

result of a

strategic

opportunity

25

Page 26: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Alternative Capital

Market is still largely

influenced by global leaders

M&A will continue

Alternative capital is driving change

Alternative capital is

driving a great deal of

structural change in the

market

However, the market

continues to be heavily

influenced by the global

reinsurance leaders

26

Page 27: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

The Drive for Efficiency

Client

Agent & Broker

Primary Insurance Company

Reinsurance Broker

Reinsurance Company

Convergence Capital

The market will continue to

become more efficient as

all players strive to

become closer to the client

27

Page 28: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Market Trends

Traditional Dual Platform

Controlthe client

Build primary business

Alternative Capital Platform

Manage or have a relationship with alternative capital

Build fee income stream

Mergers &Acquisitions

Relevanceand size

Ability to be small and nimble with parental

protection

Strategy Evolution

28

Page 29: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Global Market Trends

• Cyber Insurance

• Flood

• Mortgage

• Terrorism

• InsurTech

• US Tax Reform

Potential Opportunities

29

Page 30: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Segment Outlook – Global Reinsurance

Headwinds Tailwinds

Intense competition Cession rates increasing

Increasing interest from third party capital Cat losses temporarily stabilize rates

Earnings stabilize but remain under pressure Favorable reserve development, but waning

Excess capacity hinders further improvement Strong risk-adjusted capital

Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates

M&A

Although capitalization remains strong and rate deterioration temporarily halted, pressure on margins continues. Over

the intermediate term, returns for some reinsurers will fall short on a risk-adjusted basis.

Maintain negative market outlook.

30

Page 31: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Tax Cuts & Jobs Act

31

Page 32: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

32

Base Erosion Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT)

Industry response

Impact to group rating affiliations

Other components of TCJA

Page 33: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

BEAT

Minimum tax on deductible payments to foreign affiliates over a certain threshold

BEAT applied 5% for 2018, up to 12.5% by 2025

Certain internal reinsurance cessions were modified or cancelled in response

Internal reinsurance cessions are viewed by AM Best as a form of explicit support

33

Page 34: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Group Rating Affiliations

An affiliate of a lead rating unit that carries a group rating affiliation is important to the group’s primary mission based on its financial, operational, an/or strategic importance

Entities started or acquired within the last 18 to 24 months are generally not eligible for the (g) as they might not:

• Have made a contribution to the group’s earnings

• Be fully integrated with the rest of the rating unit

• Have a track record of supporting the group’s strategy

A start-up or recently acquired entity would likely need, as a minimum, explicit parental support to be assigned a group (g) affiliation code

34

Page 35: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Group Rating Affiliations (cont.)

35

Material changes to a reinsurance agreement would affect

the assessment of whether the parent is providing explicit

support to affiliate

• Recent Capital Injections: A hard common equity capital injection, separate and

apart from initial capitalization, made within the last fives years will receive the most

“credit”

• Intercompany Loans: Full executed intercompany loan agreements will be

analyzed to ensure arms-length terms and conditions and the same policyholder

protection language as delineated in the Contractual Agreements section directly

above

• Guaranty, Net Worth Maintenance Agreement, or other Contractual

Agreements: Fully executed agreements of support will be analyzed for

policyholder protection and are viewed as strong if the agreements contain at least

12-month termination clauses; cover all obligations of the subsidiary; and include

clear jurisdictional conflict resolution clauses, policyholder assurance of

enforcement language, and claim and reserve run-off protection

Page 36: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

PFIC and GILTI and 953d and 962 Oh My!

• Broadly, how are changes to the tax code regarding the income tax

status of owners of rated reinsurers affect these companies’ ratings?

• These changes directly affect the ability of a reinsurer to raise

capital from investors. We refer to this as financial flexibility.

• A.M. Best considers financial flexibility in evaluating holding

company BCAR, liquidity, financial leverage, interest coverage,

dividend requirements, and cash sources and uses to determine the

effect on the lead rating Unit (lift or drag).

• A. M. Best will evaluate potential reactions to changes in owners’

taxation on a customized basis which may lead to rating changes in

extreme cases where there is heavy reliance on post event

recapitalization.

Page 37: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Q&A

37

Page 38: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Mortgage Risk and Tax

Changes - Rating Implications

Steven Chirico

Director, Property Casualty

Page 39: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Discussion Outline

39

Why? Mortgage Poster Child and Philosophical Understanding

Balance Sheet Strength – A. M. Best’s Approach

Operating Performance, Business Profile, ERM

Q&A

Page 40: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Arch Capital Group

40

Segment Results for the Year Ended December 31, 2017

NPW (000)Loss

Ratio

Expense

Ratio

Combined

Ratio

Weighted

Mortgage

Contribution

Insurance Segment $2,122,440 76.8% 32.3% 109.1%

Reinsurance Segment $1,174,474 67.7% 32.2% 99.9%

Pre-mortgage Segment Weighted

Performance73.6% 32.3% 105.8%

Mortgage Segment $1,111,342 12.7% 23.3% 36.0%

Overall Weighted Performance 58.2% 31.5% 89.7% 16.1%

Source: Arch's 2017 SEC From 10K

Page 41: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Philosophical Understanding

41

Page 42: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Why Reserves Risk Merits Attention

42

• Potential losses can develop from loans not currently in default.

• Therefore, reserves don’t properly represent ultimate losses in a cohort of mortgages – which is what we want.

Problem:

Traditional View of Mortgage-Related Reserves Risk

Page 43: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Why Reserves Risk Merits Attention

43

Loss reserves are typically

established only for loans

in default*

* Industry Practice and Statutory Accounting Rules

Defaults are generally

defined as mortgages that

are at least 60 days

delinquent

Traditional View of Mortgage-Related Reserves Risk

Page 44: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Generic Method for Calculating Reserves Risk (B5m)

44

1 2

34

Calculate losses

associated with

reference pool

Determine if/how losses

breach each layer covered

by a reinsurer

Calculate net capital

charge for each

reinsurance layer as the

loss associated with each

layer less credit

for premiums

Calculate premiums

accruing to each

reinsurance layer

Page 45: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Reinsurers Cover Two Broad Risk Categories

Risks Related to CRT Programs

• Reinsurers can cover mortgages with embedded MI (LTV > 80%)

• Reinsurers can cover mortgages without embedded MI (LTV ≤ 80%)

Risks Related to Private Mortgage Insurers (PMIs)

• Reinsurers can provide quota share, excess of loss, or aggregate loss cover to PMIs

45

Page 46: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Approaches for Calculating Reserves Risk (B5m)

46

Reinsurance covering CRT Programs

• Use of a factor-based approach

Reinsurance covering U.S. PMI (when loan-

level data is available)

• Use of a third-party model, LoanKinetics

Reinsurance covering non-U.S. PMI, or U.S.

PMI when no loan-level data is available

• Options include factor-based approach, third-party model, and analytical input from reinsurers

Page 47: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

A.M. Best’s Rating Process

• A.M. Best’s interactive rating process is intended to provide an opinion

of a company’s ability to meet its ongoing obligations to policyholders.

• The building blocks of A.M. Best’s ratings process are outlined below

• Evaluation of a reinsurance company’s financial strength is based on an

in-depth analysis of its balance sheet strength – including capital

adequacy and claims-paying resources – along with a review of its

operating performance, business profile, and ERM

47

Balance

Sheet Strength

Baseline

Balance

Sheet

Strength

Baseline

Operating

Performance

(+2/-3)

Business

Profile

(+2/-2)

Enterprise Risk

Management

(+1/-4)

Comprehensive

Adjustment

(+1/-1)

Rating

Lift/Drag

Issuer

Credit

Rating

Country Risk

Page 48: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Q&A

48

Page 49: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Innovation:

Rating Considerations

Sridhar Manyem

Director, Industry Research & Analytics

Page 50: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Structural Changes Taking Place

50

• Defined benefits/pensions disappearing

• Health care becoming more expensive

• Gig economy becoming more prevalent

• Collaborative consumption trends

Demographic

Shifts

• Weather events increasing in severity

• Migration to coastal regions

• Urbanization leading to topological changes

Climate- Related

Trends

• Cloud computing

• IoT

• Big data

• Artificial intelligence/Machine learning

• Blockchain

Technology

Page 51: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Innovation and Financial Strength

51

Our plan is to begin understanding and evaluating the innovativeness of companies, including:

• how (re)insurers adapt to the changes in the marketplace

• how these changes influence the financial strength and success of (re)insurers

+ +

Demographic

Shifts

Climate-Related

Trends

Technology

Financial

Strength

and

Success

Page 52: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Innovation – A.M. Best Definition

52

• A multi-stage process…

• … that transforms ideas

into new or significantly

improved:

- Products

- Processes

- Services

- Business models

• … that have measurable impact over time and enable an

organization to stay relevant and successful …

Step

1Step

2

Step

3

• … and can be organically grown or adopted from external sources.

Page 53: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

How Critical is Innovation to Success by Industry

• Insurers across all segments believe innovation is critical.

53

Source: A.M. Best data and research

12 11

5

19

3126

29

38

3953

52

38

17

814

6

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

P/C L/A Health Reinsurance

Extremely critical

Very critical

Moderately critical

Somewhat critical

Not critical

Page 54: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

3

4

4

7

7

13

19

20

23

Other

Managing cost/expense

Growing in existing markets

Revamping the business model

Expanding to newmarkets/products

Improving Risk Selection

Realizing operationalefficiencies

Gaining a competitiveadvantage

Addressing customer needs

0 5 10 15 20 25

Primary Reasons for Innovation: Reinsurance vs. P/C

54

P/CReinsurance

6

6

9

12

21

21

24

Growing in existing markets

Addressing customer needs

Revamping the business model

Realizing operationalefficiencies

Improving risk selection

Expanding to newmarkets/products

Gaining a competitiveadvantage

0 5 10 15 20 25

Source: A.M. Best data and research

Page 55: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Most Important Challenges Innovation Can Help

Insurers Overcome: Reinsurance vs. P/C

55

6

6

18

24

70

76

94

0 50 100

Controlling Cost of Care

Aging insurance industryworkforce

Reputational risk

Changing demographics

Underwriting risk

Disruption of business model

System/process inefficiencies

(%)

9

10

23

44

61

61

90

0 50 100

Reputational risk

Controlling cost of care

Aging insurance industryworkforce

Changing demographics

Underwriting risk

Disruption of business model

System/process inefficiencies

(%)

Source: A.M. Best data and research

P/CReinsurance

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Reinsurance: How Necessary

Is It to Innovate in the Following Areas?

56

Source: A.M. Best data and research

36

39

44

47

52

82

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Products

ERM

Customer experience

Policy admin/claims mgmt

Underwriting

IT systems

Extremely orVery Necessary

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Your Company’s Process for Sourcing Innovative IdeasIs Well-Defined, Clearly Communicated, and Understood Throughout the Organization:

57

8

10

15

33

34

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Strongly disagree

Strongly agree

Slightly disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Slightly agree

(%)

Source: A.M. Best data and research

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In Terms of New or Significantly Improved Products, Processes, Services, or Business Models, You Are Most Likely to:

58

42%

24%

34%

Build

Buy

Partner with anotherorganization

Source: A.M. Best data and research

Page 59: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Reinsurance: What Are the Biggest

Challenges to Developing the Innovation Process?

59

21

24

33

52

52

88

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Legal/regulatoryenvironment

Funding

Knowledge barriers

Organizational culture

IT limitations

Human capital/specialized talent

(%)

Source: A.M. Best data and research

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Source: A.M. Best data and research

Percentage of Respondents who felt that the listed

Technologies will have a Significant Impact

8

26

29

30

42

24

27

24

33

42

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Blockchain

Internet of Things (IoT)

Cloud Computing

Artificial Intelligence

Big Data

Reinsurance

Industry

(%)

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Reinsurance: Has Your Company Invested,

or Is It Planning to Invest, in Any of the Following?

61

21

27

27

30

33

61

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Internet of Things (IoT)

Blockchain

None at this time

Artificial intelligence

Big data

Cloud computing

(%)

Source: A.M. Best data and research

Page 62: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

What are the next steps in

A.M. Best’s innovation initiative?

• The next step in our innovation initiative is the development of

a new criteria procedure focused on evaluating innovation.

• We expect to release this criteria procedure for a minimum

30-day public comment period in 2019.

• We are also evaluating the most appropriate placement for an

assessment of innovation in the rating process in accordance

with Best’s Credit Rating Methodology (BCRM). Any changes

made to the BCRM to more explicitly incorporate innovation

would likewise be released for a 30-day public comment

period.

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Page 63: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

How will the potential changes to criteria and the

BCRM impact ratings?

• Since innovation is currently captured indirectly through the

building blocks of the rating process, A.M. Best does not

expect significant rating movements as a result of the

updates.

• However, we do believe that, for insurers, the ability to

address accelerating technological and societal changes

through innovation will be increasingly critical to their long-

term financial strength.

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Q&A

64

Page 65: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

Agenda

65

Introductions

Reinsurance – Robert DeRose

Mortgage and Tax – Steven Chirico

Innovation – Sridhar Manyem

Q&A

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Thank You

66

Page 67: A.M. Best Bermuda Insurance Market Briefing 2018 · Insurance Market Briefing 2018 October 16, 2018. ... Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates M&A ... Source:

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