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A.M. Best Bermuda
Insurance Market Briefing 2018
October 16, 2018
Agenda
2
Introductions
Reinsurance – Robert DeRose
Mortgage and Tax – Steven Chirico
Innovation – Sridhar Manyem
Q&A
Global Reinsurance Market
Overview and Trends
Robert DeRose
Senior Director, Global Reinsurance Ratings
Discussion Outline
4
Global Reinsurance Results and Trends
Global Reinsurance Market Capacity
Global Reinsurance Market Evolution
Global Reinsurance Sector Outlook
Tax Cuts & Jobs Act
Segment Outlook – Global Reinsurance
Headwinds Tailwinds
Intense competition Cession rates increasing
Increasing interest from third party capital Cat losses temporarily stabilize rates
Earnings stabilize but remain under pressure Favorable reserve development, but waning
Excess capacity hinders further improvement Strong risk-adjusted capital
Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates
M&A
Although capitalization remains strong and rate deterioration temporarily halted, pressure on margins
continues. Over the intermediate term, returns for some reinsurers will fall short on a risk-adjusted basis.
Maintain negative market outlook.
5
Global Reinsurance
Results and Trends
6
Global Reinsurance Market Trends
2017 represented the most significant year for catastrophe losses since
2011.
Hurricane Harvey, Irma, Maria combined with Earthquake in Mexico
and Wildfire in California produced industry
losses in the range of USD 80 to 100 billion.
Despite timing of these events, negative reserve
surprises have been limited thus far.
7
Global Reinsurance Market Trends
Overall 2017 catastrophes amounted to an earnings events as rated balance sheets emerged flat for the year.
Alternative capital did participate in the events in a meaningful way resulting in collateral locks prior and through the 1/1 and mid year renewal periods
Alternative capital investors were NOT hindered by the losses and brought additional capacity to the market for the renewals.
8
Global Reinsurance Market Trends
Optimism that followed quickly
faded as January renewal
negations progressed.
Significant push back from Clients not
impacted by losses. But
hope lingered into the June / July Renewal.
Overall, reinsurance
pricing stabilized. More
pronounced improvement in
underlying business
As a result pricing is not
optimal for certain classes and structures but there are opportunities
out there...
9
Total Economic and Insured Losses (USD billions)
2017 2016Annual Change
(%)
10-Year
Average
% of 10-Year
Average Economic
Losses
Economic Losses
Natural
Catastrophe300 178 69% 178
Man-made 6 10 -42% 12
Total 306 188 63% 190
Insured Losses
Natural Catastrophe 131 56 133% 51 29%
Man-made 5 8 -45% 7 58%
Total 136 65 110% 58 31%
Source: Swiss Re Institute
10
Global Reinsurance Market Trends
55.9% 56.2% 56.2%60.6%
76.5%
60.6%
61.1%
31.9%33.5%
34.2%34.7%
33.6%
33.9% 33.6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 5yr Avg
Loss Ratio Expense Ratio Loss Reserve Development
Global Reinsurance Sector – Combined Ratio
Source: A.M. Best data and research
11
86.8 88.1 90.097.9
114.0
95.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20181H
Combined Ratio by Reinsurance Sector
European “Big Four” U.S. & Bermuda Lloyd’s
86.6 87.490.7 92.5
109.0
92.9
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q2
Loss Ratio Expense Ratio
89.392.4 91.8
96.3
109.0
95.0
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20181H
Source: A.M. Best data and research
12
2018
1H
Global Reinsurance Market Trends
13.0%
11.6%
9.5%
8.3%
-0.3%
7.0%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1
Return on Equity Five-Year Average
Return on Equity (2013 to present) and Five-Year Average
Source: A.M. Best data and research
13
Global Reinsurance Market Trends
Five-Year Average
2017
13.1%
11.0% 11.5%
9.7%
2.7%
9.3%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20181H
11.4% 10.9%
7.5% 6.8%
-0.5%
6.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20181H
16.2%
14.7%
8.9%8.1%
-7.3%
4.3%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20181H
European “Big Four” U.S. & Bermuda Lloyd’s
Return on Equity by Reinsurance Sector
Source: A.M. Best data and research
14
Global Reinsurance Market Trends
Global Reinsurance Market
5 Year Average Return on Equity Less Reserve Development
10.9%
8.3%
6.8%
4.5%
Composite at YE2016 Composite at YE2017
5 Year Average Return on Equity
5 Year Average Return on Equity excluding Loss Reserve Development
Source: A.M. Best data and research
15
Global Reinsurance Market Trends
Global Reinsurance – Price/Book Value (Excluding accumulated other comprehensive income)
16
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Pri
ce/B
oo
k V
alu
e
Years
Average
Current P/BV: 1.17x
Average 1994-Present: 1.16x
Low Reached March 2009 (0.75x BV)
Peak reached February 2002 (1.83x BV)
1.0x P/BV
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, A.M. Best research
Global Reinsurance
Market Capacity
17
Global Reinsurance Market Capacity
Top 10 Global Reinsurance Groups: Non-Life
Munich Reinsurance Company
Swiss Re Ltd.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Lloyd’s
Hannover Ruck SE
SCOR S.E.
Everest Re Group Ltd.
XL Group plc
Transatlantic Holdings, Inc.
PartnerRe Ltd.
Top 10 Global Reinsurance Groups: Life
Munich Reinsurance Company
Swiss Re Ltd.
Reinsurance Group of America Inc.
SCOR S.E.
Hannover Ruck SE
Great West Lifeco
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Pacific LifeCorp
PartnerRe Ltd.
Assicurazioni Generali SpA
Source: A.M. Best data and research. Ranked by unaffiliated gross premium written in 2017.
18
Global Reinsurance Market Capacity
Rank 1-1070.2%
Rank 11-2015.5%
Rank 21-307.2%
Rank 31-404.6%
Rank 41-502.5%
Life and Non-Life Reinsurance GPW Distribution by Ranking
19
Global Reinsurance Market Capacity
292 320
340 332 345 345 362
19
48
60 68 75 87
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
ConvergenceCapacity
TraditionalCapacity
Estimate for Total Dedicated Reinsurance Capacity (USD billions)
Source: Guy Carpenter and A.M. Best
20
Global Market Trends
71bn
23bn
6bn
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Reinsurance SponsoredManagers
Dedicated Insurance-linkedsecurities (ILS) Managers
Estimate for Total DedicatedReinsurance Capacity:
Convergence Capacity
(2018 estimated) (USD billions)
Source: A.M. Best data and research
21
Shareholders' Equity Plus Cumulative Share
Repurchases and Dividends
191.5 205.7 198.4 202.1 203.3 196.6
4.9
12.1 15.3 21.3 26.3
27.8 1.5 8.5 14.1
19.4 25.5
30.5
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1
Shareholders' Equity (End of Period) Share Repurchases Dividends Paid
22
Global Market
Evolution
23
Market Landscape ~10 Years In Time
Fidelis
Greenlight Re
Hamilton
Harrington Re
Humboldt Re
Kevin Re
Lumen Re
Maiden Re
Third Point Re
Watford Re
Ariel Re
Flagstone
Harbor Point / Max (Alterra)
IPC Re
Montpellier
New Castle Re
Paris Re
Platinum Re
Allied World
Endurance(Sompo Intl)
General Re
MS Amlin
Odyssey Re
National Indemnity
Partner Re
Tokio Millennium Re
TransRe
Validus
XL Catlin
Arch
Aspen
AXIS
Everest Re
Hannover Re
Lloyd’s
Munich Re
RenaissanceRe
SCOR Re
Swiss Re
“Global” Franchises
Sheltered Franchises
Franchises That Are Gone
What Does The Future Hold?
24
The Case for M&A
Broader product capability
Broader geographic reach
Greater influence
Greater attractiveness to alternative capital
Opportunity for growth
Alternatively…
M&A is the
result of a
strategic
opportunity
25
Alternative Capital
Market is still largely
influenced by global leaders
M&A will continue
Alternative capital is driving change
Alternative capital is
driving a great deal of
structural change in the
market
However, the market
continues to be heavily
influenced by the global
reinsurance leaders
26
The Drive for Efficiency
Client
Agent & Broker
Primary Insurance Company
Reinsurance Broker
Reinsurance Company
Convergence Capital
The market will continue to
become more efficient as
all players strive to
become closer to the client
27
Global Market Trends
Traditional Dual Platform
Controlthe client
Build primary business
Alternative Capital Platform
Manage or have a relationship with alternative capital
Build fee income stream
Mergers &Acquisitions
Relevanceand size
Ability to be small and nimble with parental
protection
Strategy Evolution
28
Global Market Trends
• Cyber Insurance
• Flood
• Mortgage
• Terrorism
• InsurTech
• US Tax Reform
Potential Opportunities
29
Segment Outlook – Global Reinsurance
Headwinds Tailwinds
Intense competition Cession rates increasing
Increasing interest from third party capital Cat losses temporarily stabilize rates
Earnings stabilize but remain under pressure Favorable reserve development, but waning
Excess capacity hinders further improvement Strong risk-adjusted capital
Potential for increased inflation Increase in interest rates
M&A
Although capitalization remains strong and rate deterioration temporarily halted, pressure on margins continues. Over
the intermediate term, returns for some reinsurers will fall short on a risk-adjusted basis.
Maintain negative market outlook.
30
Tax Cuts & Jobs Act
31
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
32
Base Erosion Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT)
Industry response
Impact to group rating affiliations
Other components of TCJA
BEAT
Minimum tax on deductible payments to foreign affiliates over a certain threshold
BEAT applied 5% for 2018, up to 12.5% by 2025
Certain internal reinsurance cessions were modified or cancelled in response
Internal reinsurance cessions are viewed by AM Best as a form of explicit support
33
Group Rating Affiliations
An affiliate of a lead rating unit that carries a group rating affiliation is important to the group’s primary mission based on its financial, operational, an/or strategic importance
Entities started or acquired within the last 18 to 24 months are generally not eligible for the (g) as they might not:
• Have made a contribution to the group’s earnings
• Be fully integrated with the rest of the rating unit
• Have a track record of supporting the group’s strategy
A start-up or recently acquired entity would likely need, as a minimum, explicit parental support to be assigned a group (g) affiliation code
34
Group Rating Affiliations (cont.)
35
Material changes to a reinsurance agreement would affect
the assessment of whether the parent is providing explicit
support to affiliate
• Recent Capital Injections: A hard common equity capital injection, separate and
apart from initial capitalization, made within the last fives years will receive the most
“credit”
• Intercompany Loans: Full executed intercompany loan agreements will be
analyzed to ensure arms-length terms and conditions and the same policyholder
protection language as delineated in the Contractual Agreements section directly
above
• Guaranty, Net Worth Maintenance Agreement, or other Contractual
Agreements: Fully executed agreements of support will be analyzed for
policyholder protection and are viewed as strong if the agreements contain at least
12-month termination clauses; cover all obligations of the subsidiary; and include
clear jurisdictional conflict resolution clauses, policyholder assurance of
enforcement language, and claim and reserve run-off protection
PFIC and GILTI and 953d and 962 Oh My!
• Broadly, how are changes to the tax code regarding the income tax
status of owners of rated reinsurers affect these companies’ ratings?
• These changes directly affect the ability of a reinsurer to raise
capital from investors. We refer to this as financial flexibility.
• A.M. Best considers financial flexibility in evaluating holding
company BCAR, liquidity, financial leverage, interest coverage,
dividend requirements, and cash sources and uses to determine the
effect on the lead rating Unit (lift or drag).
• A. M. Best will evaluate potential reactions to changes in owners’
taxation on a customized basis which may lead to rating changes in
extreme cases where there is heavy reliance on post event
recapitalization.
Q&A
37
Mortgage Risk and Tax
Changes - Rating Implications
Steven Chirico
Director, Property Casualty
Discussion Outline
39
Why? Mortgage Poster Child and Philosophical Understanding
Balance Sheet Strength – A. M. Best’s Approach
Operating Performance, Business Profile, ERM
Q&A
Arch Capital Group
40
Segment Results for the Year Ended December 31, 2017
NPW (000)Loss
Ratio
Expense
Ratio
Combined
Ratio
Weighted
Mortgage
Contribution
Insurance Segment $2,122,440 76.8% 32.3% 109.1%
Reinsurance Segment $1,174,474 67.7% 32.2% 99.9%
Pre-mortgage Segment Weighted
Performance73.6% 32.3% 105.8%
Mortgage Segment $1,111,342 12.7% 23.3% 36.0%
Overall Weighted Performance 58.2% 31.5% 89.7% 16.1%
Source: Arch's 2017 SEC From 10K
Philosophical Understanding
41
Why Reserves Risk Merits Attention
42
• Potential losses can develop from loans not currently in default.
• Therefore, reserves don’t properly represent ultimate losses in a cohort of mortgages – which is what we want.
Problem:
Traditional View of Mortgage-Related Reserves Risk
Why Reserves Risk Merits Attention
43
Loss reserves are typically
established only for loans
in default*
* Industry Practice and Statutory Accounting Rules
Defaults are generally
defined as mortgages that
are at least 60 days
delinquent
Traditional View of Mortgage-Related Reserves Risk
Generic Method for Calculating Reserves Risk (B5m)
44
1 2
34
Calculate losses
associated with
reference pool
Determine if/how losses
breach each layer covered
by a reinsurer
Calculate net capital
charge for each
reinsurance layer as the
loss associated with each
layer less credit
for premiums
Calculate premiums
accruing to each
reinsurance layer
Reinsurers Cover Two Broad Risk Categories
Risks Related to CRT Programs
• Reinsurers can cover mortgages with embedded MI (LTV > 80%)
• Reinsurers can cover mortgages without embedded MI (LTV ≤ 80%)
Risks Related to Private Mortgage Insurers (PMIs)
• Reinsurers can provide quota share, excess of loss, or aggregate loss cover to PMIs
45
Approaches for Calculating Reserves Risk (B5m)
46
Reinsurance covering CRT Programs
• Use of a factor-based approach
Reinsurance covering U.S. PMI (when loan-
level data is available)
• Use of a third-party model, LoanKinetics
Reinsurance covering non-U.S. PMI, or U.S.
PMI when no loan-level data is available
• Options include factor-based approach, third-party model, and analytical input from reinsurers
A.M. Best’s Rating Process
• A.M. Best’s interactive rating process is intended to provide an opinion
of a company’s ability to meet its ongoing obligations to policyholders.
• The building blocks of A.M. Best’s ratings process are outlined below
• Evaluation of a reinsurance company’s financial strength is based on an
in-depth analysis of its balance sheet strength – including capital
adequacy and claims-paying resources – along with a review of its
operating performance, business profile, and ERM
47
Balance
Sheet Strength
Baseline
Balance
Sheet
Strength
Baseline
Operating
Performance
(+2/-3)
Business
Profile
(+2/-2)
Enterprise Risk
Management
(+1/-4)
Comprehensive
Adjustment
(+1/-1)
Rating
Lift/Drag
Issuer
Credit
Rating
Country Risk
Q&A
48
Innovation:
Rating Considerations
Sridhar Manyem
Director, Industry Research & Analytics
Structural Changes Taking Place
50
• Defined benefits/pensions disappearing
• Health care becoming more expensive
• Gig economy becoming more prevalent
• Collaborative consumption trends
Demographic
Shifts
• Weather events increasing in severity
• Migration to coastal regions
• Urbanization leading to topological changes
Climate- Related
Trends
• Cloud computing
• IoT
• Big data
• Artificial intelligence/Machine learning
• Blockchain
Technology
Innovation and Financial Strength
51
Our plan is to begin understanding and evaluating the innovativeness of companies, including:
• how (re)insurers adapt to the changes in the marketplace
• how these changes influence the financial strength and success of (re)insurers
+ +
Demographic
Shifts
Climate-Related
Trends
Technology
Financial
Strength
and
Success
Innovation – A.M. Best Definition
52
• A multi-stage process…
• … that transforms ideas
into new or significantly
improved:
- Products
- Processes
- Services
- Business models
• … that have measurable impact over time and enable an
organization to stay relevant and successful …
Step
1Step
2
Step
3
• … and can be organically grown or adopted from external sources.
How Critical is Innovation to Success by Industry
• Insurers across all segments believe innovation is critical.
53
Source: A.M. Best data and research
12 11
5
19
3126
29
38
3953
52
38
17
814
6
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
P/C L/A Health Reinsurance
Extremely critical
Very critical
Moderately critical
Somewhat critical
Not critical
3
4
4
7
7
13
19
20
23
Other
Managing cost/expense
Growing in existing markets
Revamping the business model
Expanding to newmarkets/products
Improving Risk Selection
Realizing operationalefficiencies
Gaining a competitiveadvantage
Addressing customer needs
0 5 10 15 20 25
Primary Reasons for Innovation: Reinsurance vs. P/C
54
P/CReinsurance
6
6
9
12
21
21
24
Growing in existing markets
Addressing customer needs
Revamping the business model
Realizing operationalefficiencies
Improving risk selection
Expanding to newmarkets/products
Gaining a competitiveadvantage
0 5 10 15 20 25
Source: A.M. Best data and research
Most Important Challenges Innovation Can Help
Insurers Overcome: Reinsurance vs. P/C
55
6
6
18
24
70
76
94
0 50 100
Controlling Cost of Care
Aging insurance industryworkforce
Reputational risk
Changing demographics
Underwriting risk
Disruption of business model
System/process inefficiencies
(%)
9
10
23
44
61
61
90
0 50 100
Reputational risk
Controlling cost of care
Aging insurance industryworkforce
Changing demographics
Underwriting risk
Disruption of business model
System/process inefficiencies
(%)
Source: A.M. Best data and research
P/CReinsurance
Reinsurance: How Necessary
Is It to Innovate in the Following Areas?
56
Source: A.M. Best data and research
36
39
44
47
52
82
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Products
ERM
Customer experience
Policy admin/claims mgmt
Underwriting
IT systems
Extremely orVery Necessary
Your Company’s Process for Sourcing Innovative IdeasIs Well-Defined, Clearly Communicated, and Understood Throughout the Organization:
57
8
10
15
33
34
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Strongly disagree
Strongly agree
Slightly disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Slightly agree
(%)
Source: A.M. Best data and research
In Terms of New or Significantly Improved Products, Processes, Services, or Business Models, You Are Most Likely to:
58
42%
24%
34%
Build
Buy
Partner with anotherorganization
Source: A.M. Best data and research
Reinsurance: What Are the Biggest
Challenges to Developing the Innovation Process?
59
21
24
33
52
52
88
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Legal/regulatoryenvironment
Funding
Knowledge barriers
Organizational culture
IT limitations
Human capital/specialized talent
(%)
Source: A.M. Best data and research
60
Source: A.M. Best data and research
Percentage of Respondents who felt that the listed
Technologies will have a Significant Impact
8
26
29
30
42
24
27
24
33
42
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Blockchain
Internet of Things (IoT)
Cloud Computing
Artificial Intelligence
Big Data
Reinsurance
Industry
(%)
Reinsurance: Has Your Company Invested,
or Is It Planning to Invest, in Any of the Following?
61
21
27
27
30
33
61
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Internet of Things (IoT)
Blockchain
None at this time
Artificial intelligence
Big data
Cloud computing
(%)
Source: A.M. Best data and research
What are the next steps in
A.M. Best’s innovation initiative?
• The next step in our innovation initiative is the development of
a new criteria procedure focused on evaluating innovation.
• We expect to release this criteria procedure for a minimum
30-day public comment period in 2019.
• We are also evaluating the most appropriate placement for an
assessment of innovation in the rating process in accordance
with Best’s Credit Rating Methodology (BCRM). Any changes
made to the BCRM to more explicitly incorporate innovation
would likewise be released for a 30-day public comment
period.
62
How will the potential changes to criteria and the
BCRM impact ratings?
• Since innovation is currently captured indirectly through the
building blocks of the rating process, A.M. Best does not
expect significant rating movements as a result of the
updates.
• However, we do believe that, for insurers, the ability to
address accelerating technological and societal changes
through innovation will be increasingly critical to their long-
term financial strength.
63
Q&A
64
Agenda
65
Introductions
Reinsurance – Robert DeRose
Mortgage and Tax – Steven Chirico
Innovation – Sridhar Manyem
Q&A
Thank You
66
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67