23.September.2009Francisco Saraiva

Renewable Energy and Security of Supply

A view from a TSO

Cigré’s International Colloquium

Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 2

Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm

Role of Electricity

Renewable Power

Role of the Grid

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The Key Drivers

100

146 159

2005 2030 2050

TOTAL COST OF ENERGY

100

126138

2005 2030 2050

OIL/GAS IMPORT DEPENDENCY

100

110

95

2005 2030 2050

CO2 EMISSIONS

Security of supply

Climate changeCompetitiveness Business as Usual is unsustainable

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

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SECURITY OF SUPPLY

Primary energy sources

Adequacy of supply systems

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WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION

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More Energy EFFICIENCY is needed

The Sleeping Giant ….

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Prices highly influenced by numerous factors

(extraction and refining capacity, availability of resources...)

Production’s growth might stop in 10-15 years

Conventional oil reserves. Countries with > 1 Gt oil reserves

Source: BGR

TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: OIL

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Regional distribution of estimated ultimate recovery of conventional natural gas(2007)

Source: BGR

Prices linked to oil

Environmental friendly energy (comparing to coal and oil)

High efficiency of the electricity production technologies using NG (CCGT)

TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: NATURAL GAS

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TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: COAL

Abundant and worldwide distributed

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) coal will be the primary energy source with the higher growth until 2030

But .... a major CO2 emitter

Proven reserves (10 biggest producers)Source: WEC, SER (2007)

Relatively stable price

Reserves estimated in 150 years, at current consumption rate

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The traditional fossil energy resources

are limited

Alternatives are required ….

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ENERGY SCENARIO is CHANGING all over the World

EUA:

American Clean Energy And Security Act

European Union:

Energy and Climate Package

G8, IEA Outlook, COP

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«Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are

patently unsustainable - environmentally, economically and socially.

....

What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution»

World Energy Outlook 2008 - International Energy Agency (IEA) 12.Nov.08

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The New ENERGY PARADIGM

Energy Efficiency

Endogenous and Renewable Energy

Sources and other Low-Carbon

technologies

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Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm

Role of Electricity

Renewable Power

Role of the Grid

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Lighting

Rail transport

Heat Pumps

PHEV Household Appliances

Motor Systems

Industry

Demand Side

• LESS ELECTRICITY WHERE POSSIBLE (electricity savings)

• MORE ELECTRICITY WHERE NECESSARY (more efficient processes; new uses)

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Towards low-carbon power generation

and new technologies in electricity supply

Supply Side

Fossil Fuels RenewablesLow-Carbon Tech.

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Sinergies+ Security of Supply

(less dependent on energy imports)

+ Environment Protection (less CO2 emissions)

Energy Efficiency (demand side)

Renewable Power (supply side)

Electricity

+ Sustainable Energy

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Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm

Role of Electricity

Renewable Power

Role of the Grid

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Key technologies:

Hydro powerWind energyBiomass Solar thermal powerPhotovoltaic

Renewable Power

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WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL

Source: NASA

Source: 3TIER

SOLAR Power POTENTIAL

In any given hour, more

energy from the sun

reaches Earth than is used

by the whole human

population in any given

year

1070* GW OF CAPACITY

WORLDWIDE FROM RENEWABLE

SOURCES

2007 – installed capacity* Including Large Hydro (830 MW)

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WIND Power INTERMITENCY Intermitency

Non-Dispatchable Power

Need for STORAGE to: DECOUPLE the LOAD

(consumption) and the GENERATION (renewable power) diagrams

REDUCE THE RISK OF LOSS of renewable resources

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Wind / Hydro complementarity

16.Dec.2006

Wind Power declined from 600 MW (during base hours) to 100 MW within 4 hours

800

600

400

200

0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24

... Demand rises and Wind delivered Power declines

M W

STORAGE - HYDRO Power

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STORAGE - Plug-in Hybrid Electric Cars

Low-Carbon Electricity

replaces Fossil Fuels in

the Transportation sector

• Electricity from sustainable energy resources can be used

• Zero emissions at the point of use

• Simple, silent, and affordable to operate

• They can store energy and provide Operational Reserve to the System

Portugal

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EUROPE (EU) – Ambitious Targets for 2020

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www.energyfromportugal.com

PORTUGAL

A case of success

43%: 2007 to a reference hydro condition (1997)

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Wind Power Hydro Power Other renewables

Energy Efficiency

• Installed more than 2000 MW in 3 years

• Goals: 5100 MW in 2010 and 8500 in 2020

• Create 2 industrial and R&D clusters

• Optimize current unused hydro potential (>45%)

• Anticipate existing facilities reinforcement

• Implement the National Hydro Plan

•Promote a diversified policy on other RES

• 250 MW biomass

• 750 MW PV solar

• 250 MW wave

• 100 MW biogas

• Innovative policy on micro-generation (650 MW by 2015)

• Set a 10% energy efficiency improvement target by 2015• Free distribution of 4,5 million efficient lamps• Energy efficient buildings policy• National Plan for electric car roll out

Complementary wind/hydro policy

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PORTUGAL’S WIND POWER INSTALLED CAPACITY

Source: MEI

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NATIONAL HYDRO PLAN

Source: MEI, DGEG, REN UDI Database

HYDRO POTENTIAL vs INSTALLED HYDRO CAPACITY (since 1975)

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Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm

Role of Electricity

Renewable Power

Role of the Grid

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More RENEWABLE ENERGYGrid Expansion/Reinforcement

Huge Investments

New lines

Reinforcement of existing lines;

New substations (receiving wind)

More transformation power

More reactive energy compensation capacity

Control and command equipment

modernizationIn the future:

One-way transmission systems (from power plants to

consumers)or … a different model?

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The new Grid model paves the way for

the integration of distributed generation (renewables and other micro-

generation, …) and

“consumer side” applications (demand response, home made energy, …)

Source: “Smart Gris – Vision and Strategy for Europe’s Electricity Networks of the Future”

SMART GRIDS

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SMART GRIDS BENEFITS

• New uses of the electric grid (operation and “consumer side”

applications)

• More distributed generation can be integrated with the grid

• Mass-scale renewables integration

• Consumer incentive for efficiency

“Updating the way we get our electricity by staring

to build a new SMART GRID that will save us

money, protect our power sources from blackout or

attack, and deliver clean, alternative forms of

energy.”

U.S.A. President Barack Obama, 2009

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More SUSTAINABLE energy …

... more GRID

more RENEWABLE energy (increased operational

flexibility) …

more ELECTRICITY (in the global energy mix) …

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Tomorrow’s Energy

Today’s Challenge