2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

  • Upload
    migbank

  • View
    215

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • 8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

    1/15

    MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

    Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

    Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

    WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

    MA

    S-TERMMULTI-DAY

    L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

    STRATEGY/POSITION

    ENTRYLEVEL

    OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

    EUR/USD SHORT 1 1.3280 1.2870 (Entered 12/12/2011) 1.3140GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY Await New Buy Trade Setup Above 80.00.USD/CHF Possibly looking to sell.USD/CAD Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.AUD/USD SHORT 2 1.0050 0.9660/0.9380 (Entered 13/12/2011) 1.0050GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY Missed buy. Await new setup. 100.05EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8510 0.8395/0.8300/0.8142 0.8615EUR/CHF Sell Stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230GOLD SHORT 2 1705 1530/1300 (Entered 12/12/2011) 1705SILVER SHORT 2 34.1300 26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300

    DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT20 December, 2011

    Ron William, CMT, MSTA

    Bijoy Kar, CFA

    Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry

    point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

    published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

  • 8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

    2/15

    2

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT20 December, 2011

    www.migbank.com

    Short-covering around the key 1.3000 level.

    EUR/USD is unwinding mildly from oversold conditions, driven by short-

    covering as the market adjusts to a new bearish paradigm, following the

    break beneath that all-important psychological level at 1.3000.

    Our cycle analysis successfully signalled increased volatility within the first

    two weeks of December across risk proxies, including the equity and

    commodity markets. Expect some respite ahead of the holiday period.

    Watch for a sustained close beneath 1.3000 (psychological level) to resume

    EUR/USDs multi-month downtrend into 1.2870 (2011 major low).

    Near-term resistance can be found at 1.3215 and potentially even 1.3550

    (02 Dec high). Any rebound into these levels is likely to be short -lived.

    Inversely, the USD Index has extended its recovery higher to new 11-month

    highs, (a move worth over 10% f rom the summer 2010 lows).

    Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are strengthening once again and will

    continue to help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold

    extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

    Special Report:EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

    MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 1: 1.3280, Objs: 1.2870, Stop: 1.3140

    EUR/USD

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    EUR/USD

    EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    USD Index daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    UPTREND(2 YEARS)

    200-DMA(1.4047)

    BERMUDATRIANGLE

    FAILEDBREAKOUTS

    EUR/USD (Daily)

    BREAKOUTZONE(1.4000)

    1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL)1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)

    9 KEY SUPPORT(73.50-73.00)

    13

    USD INDEX

    200-DMA(75.93)

    DEMARKBUY SIGNALS

    BREAKOUT ZONE

    EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6% 11 MONTH

    HIGH

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf
  • 8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

    3/15

    3

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT20 December, 2011

    www.migbank.com

    Short-term, long positioning favoured.

    GBP/USD has broken over the resistance of the hourly falling channel that

    had been containing price since the beginning of the month. This may now

    mark the initiation of a fresh leg higher back towards 1.5780 initially.

    The movement of Sterling is likely to be affected by the movement in

    selected core Euro-Zone sovereign markets. In particular we note that

    Italian 10 year yields are trading close to 7.00%. Daily structure is also

    suggestive of a return to test 7.00% and higher. A continuation of higher

    yields may see Sterling being adopted as a safe haven again. This

    reasoning would likely help to keep cable within its year long range.

    Failure to remain above 1.5423 will see an immediate target at 1.5272 and

    then potentially trend-line support at 1.5110.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Biased towards long positions in the very short-term.

    GBP/USD

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
  • 8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

    4/15

    4

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT20 December, 2011

    www.migbank.com

    Weakening beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level).

    USD/JPY is still weak beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level), as price continues

    to hold within a multi-day trading range (see hourly chart below).

    Confirmation beneath 77.25 (pivot level) would help trigger a third price

    retracement back to pre-intervention levels (PIR III) and potentially even a

    new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL).

    Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying

    pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first

    to call the market bottom, within the end of this multi-year contracting

    pattern (see top chart insert).

    This may first inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

    psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a movewould help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,

    which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

    The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a

    major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection

    points to trigger over the next few weeks, offering a sustained move above

    our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

    Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.

    Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal VIDEO

    Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change

    Media Reports: CNBC /Squawk Box &Bloomberg

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426

    USD/JPY

    USD/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    QUAKESHOCK!

    POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)

    G7MOVEHIGH

    PIR II

    POSTBOJ

    MOVE (II)HIGH

    DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEAD OF

    NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

    POSTBOJ

    MOVE (III) PIR III

    MULTI-YEARPATTERN

    ANTICIPATESBREAKOUT (85-80)

    USD/JPY (60 MIN)POSTBOJMOVE (III)

    KEY PIVOT LEVEL (77.30) TRIGGERSPOST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT

    DEMARKSELL SIGNALS

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDHE6uEqm6whttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDHE6uEqm6whttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDHE6uEqm6w
  • 8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

    5/15

    5

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT20 December, 2011

    www.migbank.com

    Strength from 0.8568 now likely reaching completion.

    USD/CHF has weakened ever since meeting resistance close to 0.9550.

    This initial bout of weakness may now mark the end of the rising phase from

    0.8568. A return back towards the 200 day moving average is possible fromcurrent levels.

    The yield on Italian 10 year sovereign debt tested 7.000% again yesterday.

    A return to this level is anticipated ahead of a push to 7.500% before

    completion of the recent rising phase off 5.758%. This is likely to cause the

    Swiss Franc to be deemed as a safe haven once again, despite the low

    yield available on Franc deposits.

    In order to maintain a focus on the Spanish and Italian sovereign markets

    we keep note of the 10 year yields in both of these markets, with thesemeasures currently trading at 5.107% and 6.641% versus 6.478% and

    7.355%, before the agreement. Thus Spanish debt is experiencing a

    stronger positive affect, in contrast to the Italian market which remains

    elevated. The funding needs of the Italian government will return in the early

    part of next year as large tranches of debt will need to be rolled over.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Possibly looking to sell.

    USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    USD/CHF

    USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
  • 8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

    6/15

    6

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT20 December, 2011

    www.migbank.com

    Unwinding from intraday resistance at 1.0425.

    USD/CAD is still unwinding from intraday resistance at 1.0425, which

    coincided with a short-term DeMark exhaustion signal.

    The move is continuing to look weak, within an intraday consolidation

    pattern (see lower chart) and we prefer to wait for a strong directional

    confirmation higher before initiating a buy trade setup.

    Until then, keep a watchful eye on support around 1.0300. Beneath here

    would trigger a temporary breakout into 1.0220 and perhaps even 1.0000.

    Meanwhile, the bulls need to push back above 1.0425 and 1.0524 (25 Nov

    swing high), in order to trigger a larger breakout from the rates multi-month

    triangle pattern.

    In terms of the big picture, a directional confirmation above 1.0680 is still

    needed to unlock the recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the

    upside breakout from the rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a

    major Elliott wave cycle (see top chart insert).

    EUR/CAD is retesting the base of an important multi-month distribution

    pattern. A break beneath 1.3393-79 (19th

    Sept low/61.8% Fib), signals an

    important breakdown into 1.3140 and would provide substantial correlation

    pressure onto EUR/USD.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup above 1.0425.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    USD/CAD

    USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    USD/CAD (Daily)

    200-DMA(0.9885)

    CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680

    OPENS LARGERRECOVERY

    DEMARKBUY SIGNAL

    USD/CAD (60 MIN)

    KEY RESISTANCE (1.0425)

    BREAKOUTPATTERN

    DEMARKSIGNAL

    DEMARKSELL SIGNAL

    KEY SUPPORT (1.0220)

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
  • 8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

    7/15

    7

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT20 December, 2011

    www.migbank.com

    Strong unwinding from oversold conditions.

    AUD/USD is unwinding strongly from oversold conditions, which also

    coincided with an intraday DeMark buy signal (see lower chart).

    Even so, we expect this recovery to be short-lived and continue to hold our

    stop level at 1.0050 for the active model portfolio short position, which is still

    maintaining a risk-free bias.

    The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside

    pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.

    Elsewhere, the Aussie continues to weaken sharply, against the New

    Zealand dollar. Near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-

    day MA and we watch for further setbacks over the multi-day/week horizon.

    The Aussie dollar is also pairing back its mild recovery against the Japanese

    yen, while holding above the neck-line of its two-year distribution pattern.

    Watch for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would signal

    further unwinding of global risk appetite.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 2: 1.0050, Obj: 0.9660/0.9380, Stop: 1.0050.

    AUD/USD

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    KEYZONE

    AUD/USD(1 YEAR)

    DEMARKSELLSIGNALS

    200-DMA(1.0405)

    BREAKOUTZONE

    AUD/USD(Weekly)

    38.2%(0.9144)

    50%0.8546

    61.8%(0.7947)

    3 YEARUPTREND

    UNDERPRESSURE

    STRUCTURALLEVEL

    AUD/USD (60 MIN)

    DEMARK

    BUY SIGNAL

    RANGE BREAKOUT

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
  • 8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

    8/15

    8

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT20 December, 2011

    www.migbank.com

    Breaks over falling hourly channel resistance.

    GBP/JPY has broken over the resistance of a falling hourly channel,

    approaching the resistance of this structure in current trade. This level lies

    near 121.60. A break over 122.23 is required to confirm 120.30 as a higher

    low.

    In the short-term a further leg higher is anticipated in the rise from 119.38.

    However, looking at medium-term structure, suggests that the recovery

    seen from the 116.84 low is corrective in nature. This suggests scope for a

    return to 119.38 and then potentially 116.84.

    If a break over 122.23 can be realised, an eventual lower high would be

    sought, in line with the medium-term structure that we have highlighted in

    the bullet point above.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Sell strategy removed. Await fresh signal.

    GBP/JPY

    GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
  • 8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

    9/15

    9

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT20 December, 2011

    www.migbank.com

    Breaks higher from extreme range bound conditions.

    EUR/JPY has met short-term support close to the key long-term low at

    100.76, reaching 101.05 so far, on a mid-market basis.

    We have decided to remove our buy strategy as it marginally failed to getfilled and a re-visit to the same region will warn of a continuation instead of a

    region of support.

    However, the medium-term recovery that we have already witnessed from

    100.76 to 111.60 is viewed as the initial leg higher in a larger recovery

    structure and thus, while trade is maintained above 101.05 a further leg

    higher is favoured.

    We await a sustained resolution of the extreme range trading conditions

    before formulating fresh strategy.

    Sustained under 100.76 will warn of a much larger continuation to the

    downside.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Await fresh signal.

    EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/JPY

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
  • 8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

    10/15

    10

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT20 December, 2011

    www.migbank.com

    Approaches daily channel support.

    EUR/GBP remains weak in both the short and long-term timeframes. We

    note that price is now approaching the support of the daily channel that has

    contained the pair for the last 5/6 months. This potential support level lies

    near 0.8320 and constitutes a near-term target. However, we await a re-test

    of the old trend-line support as resistance ahead of possible short

    positioning.

    Short positioning in EUR/GBP may not experience as many false breaks

    going forward, due to the clear break under 1.3146 that has been witnessed

    in EUR/USD in recent trade.

    As detailed in other parts of this report, rising yields in the core Euro-Zone

    sovereign bond markets is a continued concern and one that may

    destabilise the FX markets going forward. Within this environment Sterling

    may well be judged the best of a bad bunch and to a degree be seen as a

    short-term safe haven.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Sell limit 3 at 0.8510, Objs: 0.8395/0.8300/0.8142, Stop: 0.8615

    EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/GBP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
  • 8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

    11/15

    11

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT20 December, 2011

    www.migbank.com

    Downside bias remains, while within a larger range.

    EUR/CHF has broken under our filter level at 1.2226 leading to us changing

    our sell strategy to a sell stop, as detailed below. We also note that the 50

    week moving average has managed to contain the market on the upside,

    warning that the larger down-trend may not be over.

    The Italian 10 year sovereign yield continues to meet resistance close to the

    7.000% level. A break over this level will place funding stresses on the

    Italian economy and may lead to the Swiss Franc being sought once again

    as a safe haven. As mentioned in prior reports, the low yield available on

    Swiss Franc deposits is unlikely to act as an impediment to it being sought

    as a safe haven.

    The 1.2000 level is the only level that the SNB has suggested they will

    defend. There is thus likely to be a large cluster of stops under this level,

    which if triggered, could herald a return towards the 1.0075 level.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND

    Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

    EUR/CHF daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/CHF

    EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
  • 8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

    12/15

    12

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT20 December, 2011

    www.migbank.com

    Gold remains capped beneath its 200-day average

    Gold remains capped beneath its 200-day average, which was recently

    broken for the first time in 3 years. The move was triggered by a multi-month

    triangle pattern breakout (see both daily and intraday charts).

    Downside pressure remains heavy from inter-market weakness across

    related risk proxies such as EUR/USD and equity markets. Moreover, there

    is still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close

    beneath $1600 and $1530 (swing low).

    A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this

    benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

    lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000 (12-year channelfloor/see

    top chart insert).

    Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached

    a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

    positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would

    ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity into summer 2012.

    Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

    Special ReportGolds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO

    Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG&CNBCREPORTS)

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 2: 1705, Obj: 1530, 1300, Stop: 1705

    GOLD

    Gold daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    Gold intraday chart, with COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

    200-DMABROKEN

    FIRST TIMEIN 3 YEARS!

    DEMARK SIGNALWARNED OF GOLDSOVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS

    $1800

    $1600

    DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 / $1300 - UPSIDE: $1670/ $1760 / $1800GOLD KEY LEVELS

    DOUBLETOP

    $1760

    CONFIRMATIONBENEATH $1532TARGETS $1300

    $1532

    CYCLE FAVOURS DECLINEINTO $1300 & $1040-00

    TRENDCHANNEL

    (12 YEARS)

    GOLD (60 MIN)

    SHARP

    DECLINE WEAKRECOVERY

    PATTERNBREAKOUT

    COT NET LONGSPECULATOR

    POSITIONS

    OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG

    GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT

    IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf
  • 8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

    13/15

    13

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT20 December, 2011

    www.migbank.com

    Weak bounce remains capped beneath $30.0000.

    Silvers weak recovery from oversold conditions remains capped beneath

    key support at $30.0000. Only a sustained close below here would trigger a

    test of the previous swing low at $26.0700.

    Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the

    major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces

    volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to

    recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

    Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

    multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%

    Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-

    term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual

    resumption higher.

    Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio (see top chart insert) which has

    now accelerated higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the

    next few weeks. This also helps explain recent divergences between gold

    and silver.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 2: 34.1300, Obj: 26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300

    SILVER

    Spot Silver hourly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    Spot Silver daily chart with Silver/Gold ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP

    KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)

    DEMARKSELL SIGNALS

    Silver (Daily)

    200 DMA(36.7345)

    13 YEAR LEVEL

    UNWINDING 70%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

    Gold/Silver"Mint" Ratio

    SILVER (60 MIN)

    RANGEBREAKOUT

    WEAKRECOVERY

    PSYCHOLOGICAL(30.0000)

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
  • 8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

    14/15

    14

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT20 December, 2011

    www.migbank.com

    Limitation of liability

    MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,

    including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

    Material Interests

    MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or

    have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

    Copyright

    All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

    distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

    Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

    unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be

    moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

    (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

    orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

    sent between reports.

    DISCLAIMERNo information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to

    buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act

    of any kind whatsoever.

    The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal

    use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK

    makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions

    expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes

    financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be

    made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before

    making any investment decision.

    All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no

    guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the

    content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

    LEGALTERMS

  • 8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

    15/15

    15

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT20 December, 2011

    www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

    MIG BANK

    [email protected]

    14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

    Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

    CONTACT

    Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]