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8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
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MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
MA
S-TERMMULTI-DAY
L-TERMMULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/POSITION
ENTRYLEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD SHORT 1 1.3280 1.2870 (Entered 12/12/2011) 1.3140GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY Await New Buy Trade Setup Above 80.00.USD/CHF Possibly looking to sell.USD/CAD Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.AUD/USD SHORT 2 1.0050 0.9660/0.9380 (Entered 13/12/2011) 1.0050GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY Missed buy. Await new setup. 100.05EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8510 0.8395/0.8300/0.8142 0.8615EUR/CHF Sell Stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230GOLD SHORT 2 1705 1530/1300 (Entered 12/12/2011) 1705SILVER SHORT 2 34.1300 26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300
DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT20 December, 2011
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry
point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is
published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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Short-covering around the key 1.3000 level.
EUR/USD is unwinding mildly from oversold conditions, driven by short-
covering as the market adjusts to a new bearish paradigm, following the
break beneath that all-important psychological level at 1.3000.
Our cycle analysis successfully signalled increased volatility within the first
two weeks of December across risk proxies, including the equity and
commodity markets. Expect some respite ahead of the holiday period.
Watch for a sustained close beneath 1.3000 (psychological level) to resume
EUR/USDs multi-month downtrend into 1.2870 (2011 major low).
Near-term resistance can be found at 1.3215 and potentially even 1.3550
(02 Dec high). Any rebound into these levels is likely to be short -lived.
Inversely, the USD Index has extended its recovery higher to new 11-month
highs, (a move worth over 10% f rom the summer 2010 lows).
Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are strengthening once again and will
continue to help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold
extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
Special Report:EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO
MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 1: 1.3280, Objs: 1.2870, Stop: 1.3140
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD Index daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
UPTREND(2 YEARS)
200-DMA(1.4047)
BERMUDATRIANGLE
FAILEDBREAKOUTS
EUR/USD (Daily)
BREAKOUTZONE(1.4000)
1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL)1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)
9 KEY SUPPORT(73.50-73.00)
13
USD INDEX
200-DMA(75.93)
DEMARKBUY SIGNALS
BREAKOUT ZONE
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6% 11 MONTH
HIGH
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
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Short-term, long positioning favoured.
GBP/USD has broken over the resistance of the hourly falling channel that
had been containing price since the beginning of the month. This may now
mark the initiation of a fresh leg higher back towards 1.5780 initially.
The movement of Sterling is likely to be affected by the movement in
selected core Euro-Zone sovereign markets. In particular we note that
Italian 10 year yields are trading close to 7.00%. Daily structure is also
suggestive of a return to test 7.00% and higher. A continuation of higher
yields may see Sterling being adopted as a safe haven again. This
reasoning would likely help to keep cable within its year long range.
Failure to remain above 1.5423 will see an immediate target at 1.5272 and
then potentially trend-line support at 1.5110.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Biased towards long positions in the very short-term.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Weakening beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level).
USD/JPY is still weak beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level), as price continues
to hold within a multi-day trading range (see hourly chart below).
Confirmation beneath 77.25 (pivot level) would help trigger a third price
retracement back to pre-intervention levels (PIR III) and potentially even a
new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL).
Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying
pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first
to call the market bottom, within the end of this multi-year contracting
pattern (see top chart insert).
This may first inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through
psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a movewould help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,
which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.
The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a
major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection
points to trigger over the next few weeks, offering a sustained move above
our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.
Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.
Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal VIDEO
Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change
Media Reports: CNBC /Squawk Box &Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
QUAKESHOCK!
POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)
G7MOVEHIGH
PIR II
POSTBOJ
MOVE (II)HIGH
DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEAD OF
NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)
POSTBOJ
MOVE (III) PIR III
MULTI-YEARPATTERN
ANTICIPATESBREAKOUT (85-80)
USD/JPY (60 MIN)POSTBOJMOVE (III)
KEY PIVOT LEVEL (77.30) TRIGGERSPOST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT
DEMARKSELL SIGNALS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDHE6uEqm6whttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDHE6uEqm6whttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDHE6uEqm6w8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
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Strength from 0.8568 now likely reaching completion.
USD/CHF has weakened ever since meeting resistance close to 0.9550.
This initial bout of weakness may now mark the end of the rising phase from
0.8568. A return back towards the 200 day moving average is possible fromcurrent levels.
The yield on Italian 10 year sovereign debt tested 7.000% again yesterday.
A return to this level is anticipated ahead of a push to 7.500% before
completion of the recent rising phase off 5.758%. This is likely to cause the
Swiss Franc to be deemed as a safe haven once again, despite the low
yield available on Franc deposits.
In order to maintain a focus on the Spanish and Italian sovereign markets
we keep note of the 10 year yields in both of these markets, with thesemeasures currently trading at 5.107% and 6.641% versus 6.478% and
7.355%, before the agreement. Thus Spanish debt is experiencing a
stronger positive affect, in contrast to the Italian market which remains
elevated. The funding needs of the Italian government will return in the early
part of next year as large tranches of debt will need to be rolled over.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Possibly looking to sell.
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Unwinding from intraday resistance at 1.0425.
USD/CAD is still unwinding from intraday resistance at 1.0425, which
coincided with a short-term DeMark exhaustion signal.
The move is continuing to look weak, within an intraday consolidation
pattern (see lower chart) and we prefer to wait for a strong directional
confirmation higher before initiating a buy trade setup.
Until then, keep a watchful eye on support around 1.0300. Beneath here
would trigger a temporary breakout into 1.0220 and perhaps even 1.0000.
Meanwhile, the bulls need to push back above 1.0425 and 1.0524 (25 Nov
swing high), in order to trigger a larger breakout from the rates multi-month
triangle pattern.
In terms of the big picture, a directional confirmation above 1.0680 is still
needed to unlock the recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the
upside breakout from the rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a
major Elliott wave cycle (see top chart insert).
EUR/CAD is retesting the base of an important multi-month distribution
pattern. A break beneath 1.3393-79 (19th
Sept low/61.8% Fib), signals an
important breakdown into 1.3140 and would provide substantial correlation
pressure onto EUR/USD.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup above 1.0425.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD
USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD (Daily)
200-DMA(0.9885)
CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680
OPENS LARGERRECOVERY
DEMARKBUY SIGNAL
USD/CAD (60 MIN)
KEY RESISTANCE (1.0425)
BREAKOUTPATTERN
DEMARKSIGNAL
DEMARKSELL SIGNAL
KEY SUPPORT (1.0220)
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Strong unwinding from oversold conditions.
AUD/USD is unwinding strongly from oversold conditions, which also
coincided with an intraday DeMark buy signal (see lower chart).
Even so, we expect this recovery to be short-lived and continue to hold our
stop level at 1.0050 for the active model portfolio short position, which is still
maintaining a risk-free bias.
The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside
pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.
Elsewhere, the Aussie continues to weaken sharply, against the New
Zealand dollar. Near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-
day MA and we watch for further setbacks over the multi-day/week horizon.
The Aussie dollar is also pairing back its mild recovery against the Japanese
yen, while holding above the neck-line of its two-year distribution pattern.
Watch for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would signal
further unwinding of global risk appetite.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 1.0050, Obj: 0.9660/0.9380, Stop: 1.0050.
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
KEYZONE
AUD/USD(1 YEAR)
DEMARKSELLSIGNALS
200-DMA(1.0405)
BREAKOUTZONE
AUD/USD(Weekly)
38.2%(0.9144)
50%0.8546
61.8%(0.7947)
3 YEARUPTREND
UNDERPRESSURE
STRUCTURALLEVEL
AUD/USD (60 MIN)
DEMARK
BUY SIGNAL
RANGE BREAKOUT
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Breaks over falling hourly channel resistance.
GBP/JPY has broken over the resistance of a falling hourly channel,
approaching the resistance of this structure in current trade. This level lies
near 121.60. A break over 122.23 is required to confirm 120.30 as a higher
low.
In the short-term a further leg higher is anticipated in the rise from 119.38.
However, looking at medium-term structure, suggests that the recovery
seen from the 116.84 low is corrective in nature. This suggests scope for a
return to 119.38 and then potentially 116.84.
If a break over 122.23 can be realised, an eventual lower high would be
sought, in line with the medium-term structure that we have highlighted in
the bullet point above.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell strategy removed. Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Breaks higher from extreme range bound conditions.
EUR/JPY has met short-term support close to the key long-term low at
100.76, reaching 101.05 so far, on a mid-market basis.
We have decided to remove our buy strategy as it marginally failed to getfilled and a re-visit to the same region will warn of a continuation instead of a
region of support.
However, the medium-term recovery that we have already witnessed from
100.76 to 111.60 is viewed as the initial leg higher in a larger recovery
structure and thus, while trade is maintained above 101.05 a further leg
higher is favoured.
We await a sustained resolution of the extreme range trading conditions
before formulating fresh strategy.
Sustained under 100.76 will warn of a much larger continuation to the
downside.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY
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Approaches daily channel support.
EUR/GBP remains weak in both the short and long-term timeframes. We
note that price is now approaching the support of the daily channel that has
contained the pair for the last 5/6 months. This potential support level lies
near 0.8320 and constitutes a near-term target. However, we await a re-test
of the old trend-line support as resistance ahead of possible short
positioning.
Short positioning in EUR/GBP may not experience as many false breaks
going forward, due to the clear break under 1.3146 that has been witnessed
in EUR/USD in recent trade.
As detailed in other parts of this report, rising yields in the core Euro-Zone
sovereign bond markets is a continued concern and one that may
destabilise the FX markets going forward. Within this environment Sterling
may well be judged the best of a bad bunch and to a degree be seen as a
short-term safe haven.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8510, Objs: 0.8395/0.8300/0.8142, Stop: 0.8615
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Downside bias remains, while within a larger range.
EUR/CHF has broken under our filter level at 1.2226 leading to us changing
our sell strategy to a sell stop, as detailed below. We also note that the 50
week moving average has managed to contain the market on the upside,
warning that the larger down-trend may not be over.
The Italian 10 year sovereign yield continues to meet resistance close to the
7.000% level. A break over this level will place funding stresses on the
Italian economy and may lead to the Swiss Franc being sought once again
as a safe haven. As mentioned in prior reports, the low yield available on
Swiss Franc deposits is unlikely to act as an impediment to it being sought
as a safe haven.
The 1.2000 level is the only level that the SNB has suggested they will
defend. There is thus likely to be a large cluster of stops under this level,
which if triggered, could herald a return towards the 1.0075 level.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.
EUR/CHF daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Gold remains capped beneath its 200-day average
Gold remains capped beneath its 200-day average, which was recently
broken for the first time in 3 years. The move was triggered by a multi-month
triangle pattern breakout (see both daily and intraday charts).
Downside pressure remains heavy from inter-market weakness across
related risk proxies such as EUR/USD and equity markets. Moreover, there
is still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close
beneath $1600 and $1530 (swing low).
A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this
benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze
lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000 (12-year channelfloor/see
top chart insert).
Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached
a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold
positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would
ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity into summer 2012.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:
Special ReportGolds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO
Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG&CNBCREPORTS)
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 1705, Obj: 1530, 1300, Stop: 1705
GOLD
Gold daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
Gold intraday chart, with COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
200-DMABROKEN
FIRST TIMEIN 3 YEARS!
DEMARK SIGNALWARNED OF GOLDSOVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS
$1800
$1600
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 / $1300 - UPSIDE: $1670/ $1760 / $1800GOLD KEY LEVELS
DOUBLETOP
$1760
CONFIRMATIONBENEATH $1532TARGETS $1300
$1532
CYCLE FAVOURS DECLINEINTO $1300 & $1040-00
TRENDCHANNEL
(12 YEARS)
GOLD (60 MIN)
SHARP
DECLINE WEAKRECOVERY
PATTERNBREAKOUT
COT NET LONGSPECULATOR
POSITIONS
OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG
GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT
IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf8/3/2019 2011 12 20 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
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Weak bounce remains capped beneath $30.0000.
Silvers weak recovery from oversold conditions remains capped beneath
key support at $30.0000. Only a sustained close below here would trigger a
test of the previous swing low at $26.0700.
Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the
major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces
volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to
recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.
Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the
multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%
Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-
term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual
resumption higher.
Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio (see top chart insert) which has
now accelerated higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the
next few weeks. This also helps explain recent divergences between gold
and silver.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 34.1300, Obj: 26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300
SILVER
Spot Silver hourly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
Spot Silver daily chart with Silver/Gold ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)
DEMARKSELL SIGNALS
Silver (Daily)
200 DMA(36.7345)
13 YEAR LEVEL
UNWINDING 70%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY
Gold/Silver"Mint" Ratio
SILVER (60 MIN)
RANGEBREAKOUT
WEAKRECOVERY
PSYCHOLOGICAL(30.0000)
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