2011 11 25 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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  • 8/3/2019 2011 11 25 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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    MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

    Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

    Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

    WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

    MA

    S-TERMMULTI-DAY

    L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

    STRATEGY/POSITION

    ENTRYLEVEL

    OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

    EUR/USD SHORT 3 1.3480 1.3140/1.3000/1.2860 (Entered 16/11/2011) 1.3650GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY Await New Buy Trade Setup.USD/CHF Await fresh signal.USD/CAD LONG 1 1.0250 1.0670 (Entered on 10/11/2011) 1.0350AUD/USD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/GBP Awaiting Fresh Signal.EUR/CHF Sell stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230GOLD SHORT 3 1680 1595/1450/1300 (Entered 23/11/2011) 1740SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 35.6880

    DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT25 November, 2011

    Ron William, CMT, MSTA

    Bijoy Kar, CFA

    Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been h it the stop will be moved to the entry

    point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

    published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT25 November, 2011

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    Bearish decline resumes into 1.3146.

    EUR/USDs decline is resuming into 1.3146 (Oct swing low). The bearish

    impulsive move is extending from key overhead resistance (primarily a 2

    year trend and its long-term 200-day average).

    Bearish sentiment is also anchored by heightened contagion fears driven

    from the greater European sovereign debt risk.

    A sustained close beneath 1.3146 (Oct swing low) will re-establish the larger

    downtrend from April and target 1.3000 (psychological level), then 1.2870

    (2011 major low).

    Keep an eye on highly correlated risk-related proxies, such as the S&P500

    and AUD/USD, which both continue to exhibit downside presssures.

    Inversely, the USD Index is extending its recovery higher and is fast

    approaching the recent 9-month highs near 80, (a move worth almost 10%).

    Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs

    (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain

    strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold

    extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

    Special Report:EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

    MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 3: 1.3480, Objs:1.3140/1.3000/1.2860, Stop: 1.3650

    EUR/USD

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    EUR/USD

    EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

    200-DMA(1.4098)

    BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED

    BREAKOUTS

    UPTREND(2 YEARS)

    EUR/USD (Daily)

    BREAKOUTZONE(1.4000)

    1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL)1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)

    +

    -

    USD INDEX(4 YEARS)

    DEMARKBUY SIGNAL

    +27% +19%

    TRIGGER(15000)

    COT LIQUIDITY

    +10%SO FAR

    EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS

    9 KEY SUPPORT(73.50-73.00)

    1

    USD

    200-DMA(75.73)

    DEMARKBUY SIGNALS

    BREAKOUT ZONE

    EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

    9 MONTHHIGH

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf
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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT25 November, 2011

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    Extending decline lower. Signs of exhaustion remain.

    GBP/USD is forming a falling wedge in the hourly timeframe warning of a

    period of strength ahead. However, before we attempt to capitalise on a

    possible recovery we seek a break lower. Should any such weakness fail to

    gain momentum, we will then look to buy into a recovery.

    This scenario is also supported by the generally rangebound nature of the

    market in the medium-term timeframe, favouring a return to 1.6167.

    A sustained break under 1.5272 is required to turn the medium-term bias

    decidedly bearish.

    We await the formation of short-term structure to assist us in our formulation

    of strategy.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Await fresh signal.

    GBP/USD

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT25 November, 2011

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    Probability favours retracement to pre-intervention levels.

    USD/JPY remains negative, with the growing probability of another price

    retracement back to pre-intervention levels (PIR) and potentially even a new

    post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL).

    Furthermore, sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that

    USD/JPY buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone in the market

    continues to try and be the first to call the market bottom.

    This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

    psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move

    would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,

    which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

    The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a

    major long-term 40 year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection

    points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained

    move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

    Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term

    technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark exhaustion signals, within

    the ending diagonal pattern, launching a powerful recovery into 91.00.

    Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.

    Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal

    Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change Media Reports: CNBC Bloomberg

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426

    USD/JPY

    USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    82.00

    83.30

    USD/JPY(Daily1 YEAR)

    QUAKESHOCK!

    POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)

    POSTG7

    MOVE (I)HIGH

    PIR II

    80.24

    POSTBOJ

    MOVE (II)HIGH

    DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW 75.35

    POSTBOJ

    MOVE (III)HIGH

    PIR III

    MONTHLY DEMARKBUYSIGNAL

    USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)

    ENDINGDIAGONAL

    PATTERNANTICIPATE

    SBREAKOUT(85-79)

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdfhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdf
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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT25 November, 2011

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    Resistance maintains weakness under 0.9316.

    USD/CHF remains in a tight trading range, struggling to make large

    impulsive moves higher as has taken place in other currencies versus the

    USD, like the commodity currencies. The ability of the Swiss Franc to

    continue making fresh gains is also linked to the fate of the periphery

    government bond yields. Demand for Swiss Francs is likely to continue

    while yields on Spanish and Italian government bonds remain elevated,

    currently trading at 6.646% and 7.173% respectively.

    The 0.9316 level is key to near-term structure, with a failure to break over

    0.9316 warning of a return to the region close to 0.8242. However, if a

    break above 0.9316 can be achieved without breaking under 0.8568, a

    structural change will occur, increasing the probability of further gains

    ahead.

    One thing to note, that has been taking place over the last week, is that the

    spread between French government bonds and their German counterparts

    is beginning to narrow again, after a period of widening. However, we now

    need to watch the behaviour of the German curve itself to try and determine

    how this core yield curve is behaving. If yields in Germany continue to rise

    this will likely mark an acceleration of deterioration in the Euro Zone.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Await fresh signal.

    USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    USD/CHF

    USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT25 November, 2011

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    Bulls charging higher into 1.0658.

    Raised stop to 1.0350, thereby locking in profits and maintaining the risk-

    free long trade. USD/CAD is extending its bull charge higher into 1.0658

    (05th

    Oct swing high), near 1.0673 congestions zone).

    A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger

    recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the

    rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.

    Only a sustained close beneath 1.0230 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks

    into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9844 and 0.9726 (31st Aug low).

    EUR/CAD is still holding above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-month

    trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high),which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern.

    CHF/CAD is now retesting its 200-day MA at 1.1363, while maintaining a

    multi-week trading range. This follows the dramatic price slide lower (which

    was triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has now retraced

    more than half of its 2011 gains.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Long 1: 1.0250, Objs: 1.0670, Stop: 1.0350Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    USD/CAD

    USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    USD/CAD (Weekly)

    CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680

    OPENSLARGER

    DEMARKBUY SIGNAL

    USD/CAD (Daily)

    August High(1.0673)

    200-DMA(0.9844)

    MAJOR RESISTANCE

    50%(1.3570)

    61.8%(1.3379)

    EUR/CAD (Daily)

    200-DMA(1.3871)

    REVERSALPATTERN

    CHF/CAD (Daily)

    200-DMA1.1362

    50%

    (1.1488)61.8%

    (1.0893)

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT25 November, 2011

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    Unwinding from oversold conditions.

    AUD/USD is still attempting to unwind f rom oversold conditions, following its

    accelerated decline through the 1.0000 psychological level.

    The move must be sustained below 1.0000 to further compound downside

    pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.

    Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand

    dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-

    day MA. Expect sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day horizon.

    The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now

    trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 82.67.

    Watch for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would signal

    further unwinding of risk appetite.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Awaiting Renewed Sell Trade Setup.

    AUD/USD

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    AUD/USD(Weekly)

    38.2%(0.9144)

    50%(0.8546)

    61.8%(0.7947)

    3 YEARUPTRENDISUNDER

    PRESSURE

    STRUCTURALLEVEL

    KEYZONE

    AUD/USD(1 YEAR)

    DEMARKSELLSIGNALS

    200-DMA1.0405

    200-DMA

    (82.76)

    13

    38.2%(76.70)

    61.8%

    (68.47)

    50%(72.58)

    AUD/JPY(Daily)

    DEMARKSELL SIGNAL

    RESUMPTION OF

    BREAKDOWNADDS TO

    RISK AVERSION

    REVERINGINTO

    200-DMA

    AUD/NZD(Daily)

    KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Short-term weakness grinds lower.

    GBP/JPY has now returned to the base of the extension higher that

    occurred at the end of October. Failure to find support in the current region

    will warn of a re-test of the 116.84 region. We do however note, that further

    weakess in GBP/JPY will likely be associated with an extension of recent

    losses in the S&P500.

    Also noted is a falling hourly channel. In a similar manner to GBP/USD we

    await a further downside attempt and look to see if momentum can be

    garnered. Although the market appears exhausted to the downside, short-

    term price action needs to confirm this.

    A push back over the hourly high at 121.77 needs to be achieved to

    neutralise the current short-term bearish bias.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Await fresh signal.

    GBP/JPY

    GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT25 November, 2011

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    Weakness from 111.60 is deemed as corrective for now.

    EUR/JPY continues to grind lower after failing to hold the extension higher

    that occurred at the end of October. In fact the fall that has taken place

    since 111.60 has the appearance of a corrective phase, suggesting scope

    for a further leg higher. With this in mind a further rise towards 111.60 is

    possible.

    However, the EUR component of this pair is highly affected by the

    movement in EUR/USD. As the yields in Spanish and Italian government

    bonds continue to rise, this puts more downside pressure on the EUR. A

    break under 1.3146 in the EUR/USD will end the rising phase seen since

    2010. This would likely be associated with a fall back down to 100.76 and

    potentially lower.

    A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the medium-

    term outlook more bullish.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/JPY

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Return to range bound trade for now.

    EUR/GBP failed to remain within the confines of a falling hourly channel.

    Instead a break higher took place, back into the old trading range, warning

    that the push under 0.8530/31 is in fact a false break lower. However,

    movement here is likely to be effected by the perception of Sterling as a

    safe haven, if the Euro Zone continues to deteriorate. Thus focus remains

    on the Italian and Spanish government bond markets.

    A fall back under 0.8486 will strengthen the case of the bears. In the

    meantime a range bound environment may persist.

    Our bias remains mildly bearish with trade continuing under both the 200

    day and 50 week moving averages. With this in mind we keep an eye on

    the 1.3146 level in EUR/USD. A push under this level will mark a clear

    breakdown of confidence in the EUR.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Await Fresh Signal.EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/GBP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT25 November, 2011

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    Range bound between 1.2131 and 1.2474. Breakout sought.

    EUR/CHF is maintaining its tight trading range just under the 1.2500 level.

    It is anticipated that this zone may see a degree of resistance, particularly in

    light of the movement in periphery yield spreads versus bunds. Over time,

    this may lead to a renewed desire for a safe haven, with downside pressure

    returning to EUR/CHF.

    We would prefer to trade this from a momentum perspective, awaiting a

    return to the 1.2000 region. Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region take place

    with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this would warn of the end of the

    recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the probability of a return to this

    level.

    Short-term structure continues to be suggestive of a further rise back

    towards the 1.2500 region, where resistance would be expected.

    It remains to be seen if the SNB will be able to hold back the possible flow of

    funds into Swiss Francs, that may occur, if further stresses lead to yet

    higher yields in Italian/Spanish/French government bonds.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND

    Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

    EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/CHF

    EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Weakening from resistance at $1800.

    Short-term price activity is still weakening from resistance at 1800. The

    bearish move is starting to be anchored once again by Golds last dramatic

    20% capitulation.

    There is heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly

    close beneath $1600/98 and $1530 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not

    been breached in 3 years!

    Speculative (net long) flows remain a concern having recently breached a

    key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

    positions.

    A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this

    benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

    lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still

    offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.

    Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

    Special ReportGolds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO

    Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG&CNBCREPORTS)

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 3: 1680, Obj:1595/1450/1300, Stop: 1740

    GOLD

    Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    TRENDCHANNEL(12 YEARS)

    I

    RISK ZONE III

    CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINEINTO $1300 & $1040-1000

    26%

    34%

    20%SO FAR

    25%

    II

    COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS

    OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG

    GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT

    IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

    200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!

    DEMARK SIGNALWARNED OF GOLDSOVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS

    BREAKOUT

    $1704

    $160

    DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844

    GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS

    $153

    DOUBLETOP

    $1760

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf
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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT25 November, 2011

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    Weakening into key support at $26.0700.

    Silver is weakening back into 30.0000 and the previous swing low at

    26.0700. Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks,

    following the major sell-off in September.

    Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This

    allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed

    buying interest.

    Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

    multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%

    Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-

    term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual

    resumption higher.

    Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated

    higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880

    SILVER

    Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    BULLMARKET

    FROM1999

    Silver Monthly (since 1980)

    13

    38.2%(32.3135)

    50%(26.9150)

    61.8%

    (21.5165)

    I

    II

    OVER 30YEAR BASE PATTERN

    Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARKSELL SIGNAL

    13 YEAR LEVEL

    UNWINDING 67%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

    Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

    KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)

    DEMARKSELL SIGNALS

    Silver (Daily)

    200 DMA(36.5125)

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

    unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will bemoved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

    (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT25 November, 2011

    www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

    MIG [email protected]

    14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

    Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

    CONTACT

    Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]

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