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Increasing Student Enrollment Part 1

 By Cynthia Joffrion

 Dated: Jul 24, 2010

  In the state of Texas, K-12 public and private schools have experienced a steady growth in student 

enrollment for the past several years.

Introduction

Instructional programs, facility capacity, staffing, and availability of funding are factors that influence

a school systems future success. The United States Department of Education’s, No Child Left Behind Act

has focused attention on student achievement scores and school accountability. (2004) In order to increase

student achievement scores, school systems must provide students with the adequate instructional tools to

learn. As student enrollment increases it has become increasingly difficult to provide enough tools and

certified teachers to accommodate the student enrollment increases. Budgetary factors are the predominate

influence in preventing school systems from addressing the issue.K-12 public and private schools in Texas have experienced a steady growth in student enrollment for

the past several years. The continued increase in enrollment for K-12 schools is predicted to increase

significantly in the next 10 years. Providing a solution means that school systems must begin strategic

planning process to address the enrollment increase. To complicate the planning process state and federal

funds are decreasing. Therefore, school systems must have a strong strategic plan in place that addresses

increased enrollment while maximizing programs and strategies that provide low cost solutions. In cases

where a strategic plan and funding is not available school systems are making up for the deficients by

overcrowding classrooms, hiring non-qualified teaching staff, and using outdated textbooks.

The purpose of this paper is to analysis information on student enrollment and research finding to

outline past, current and future trends. Using trend extrapolation factors this paper outlines the principle of 

using Distance Education as a cost effective solution to offset the conditions imposed by increasing

enrollment. Trend extrapolation is a tool that provides a reasonably clear picture of where an organization

is headed and what might be done about it, particularly in the near future. (Alexander, 1999) The main

concept that is developed from analyzing information is that trends must be reviewed in order to

accomplish completing a successful strategic plan. Alexander and Serfass outline planning strategies that

can be useful in analyzing the issues and planning for needed changes. (1999) The trend extrapolation

process

is comprised of eight sequential steps. Figure I outlines the process.

Figure 1

 

Step 1: Select the Appropriate TeamStep 2: Identify Baseline Trends

Step 3:Complete a Trendmap of the Organization

Step 4: Conduct Environmental Scan

Step 5: Extrapolate Trends

Step 6: Analyze Cause-Effect Relationships

Step 7: Determine Future Threats and Opportunities

Step 8: Prepare the Forecast

 

Selection of the Appropriate Team

The most affective teams members for a successful trend extrapolation study would contain members

representative of all stakeholder groups. The team would be responsible for analyzing trend data and then

applying the information to developing a strategic plan and vision. The trend extrapolation study will

provide information that will prepare the team to prepare a strategic plan equal to foreseeable challenges.

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Table 1 outline the team members and provides a justification for selection.

 

Table 1

Team Member

Justification for selection

1. Distance education will have to have board approval it is important that they are represented on theexploration team.

2. School and district administrators are key to providing resources and interventions to successful

implement a distance-learning program.

3. VendorsVendors can provide partnerships with school districts not only to provide equipment but they

can also provide value add services. For example, they could provide staff development at no cost.

4. ParentsMany schools have advisory teams that have parents as members. Parents can give value input

related to the learning needs of students.

5. StudentsMany times we under estimate what our students can do. I think that the students can play a

valuable role in successfully implementing a new distance education program.

6.Teachers can provide input as to what types of instructional methods are successful.

7. Community MembersCommunity members have a vested interest in the success of the local schools.

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