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September 7, 2006
LeRoy Spayd
Chief, Operations and Requirements Division
Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services
NOAA’s National Weather Service
Unidata Policy CommitteeUnidata Policy CommitteeNOAA/NWS StatusNOAA/NWS Status
2
Outline
• Storm-based Warnings
• Radiosonde vs Aircraft Water Vapor observations
• Analysis of Record
• Digital Services
• NWS Budget
3
From County-Based Warnings to Storm-Based Warnings
Three simultaneous tornadoes within line
of severe thunderstorms
County-Based Tornado Warnings8 Counties under warning
Almost 1 million people warned
Storm-Based Tornado Warnings70% less area covered
~600,000 fewer people warned
• More specific• Increased clarity• Supports newdissemination technology
4
In the current system, six full counties are warned. Storm-Based Tornado Warnings provide much improved service.
Storm-Based Warnings Provide Improved Service
Strong circulation within line of severe
thunderstorms
Tornado warning area based on storm without
regard to county boundaries
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Effective Storm-Based Warnings Can Avoid Unnecessary Warning of Population Centers
Most of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex is correctly omitted from this Storm-Based tornado warning. New siren system selectively activated.
“Storm-based warnings would save the public a minimum of $100 million
dollars a year in reduction of the cost of
sheltering”- Dr. Dan Sutter
Professor of Economics
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Partner Acceptance of Storm-Based Tornado Warnings
Screen capture of Brian Busby at the ABC affiliate in Kansas City, MO.
WFO Kansas City/Pleasant Hill issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning (blue) then
upgraded to a Tornado Warning (red).
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Current County-Based Verification System
County-Based VerificationFalse Alarm Rate (FAR) = 75%Probability of Detection = 100%
ConfirmedTornado at 0030Z
County A
County DCounty C
County B
• Tornado warning forCounties A, B, C, and D equals four warnings.
• Tornado occurs in County A.
• False alarms for Counties B, C, and D.
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County-Based VerificationLead Time (LT) = 18.3 minutes (10+20+25 / 3)
Probability of Detection = 100%False Alarm Rate = 25%
Current County-Based Verification System
County A
County D County C
County B
Storm at TornadoWarning Issuance Tornado Touchdown
LT = 10 minutes
LT = 20 min.
LT = 25 min.Tornado warning issued with lead time to
first touchdown of 10 minutes. Lead time for County B of 20 minutes
and County C of 25 minutes.
Tornad
o Tra
ck
9
Dissemination of Storm-Based Warnings
• Those who access warnings via television, Internet, PDAs, and other GIS-enabled services will benefit.
• A recent NSF study shows a majority of Americans obtain weather information via these sources.
• We already use directional delimiters (based on the location of the storm) in verbal and text-based products.
• “A Tornado Warning is in effect for Southwestern Montgomery County”
• Planning ongoing to fully utilize these benefits in NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) and Emergency Alert System.
• NWR Improvement Project specifies need for “geo-targeting” specific radio transmitters.
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Regional In Situ SoundingsRadiosonde/WV Aircraft Obs
• In FY06-07:
• Evaluate model response to water-vapor sensor derived data
• Evaluate implications of
– forecasters using different data source and,
– reaction of broader US weather enterprise.
• Use evaluation to develop plan for implementation
• In FY08: Begin eliminating redundant capability for weather observations
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• Now:
• 25 WVSSII sensors on United Parcel Service B-757 aircraft since March 2005 (NOAA)
• 60 TAMDAR sensors on Mesaba Saab 340 Aircraft since January 2005 (NASA)
• Sept 06: NOAA RFP for Water Vapor Data from Commercial Aircraft
• FY07-08: NOAA Phase I contract for sensor installation and data collection
• FY08-12: NOAA Phase II contract for expanded sensor installation and data collection
• Bottom Line:
• Potential for significant increase in atmospheric soundings from regional and larger airports; ex. Each Southwest Airlines has 450 B-737s, each aircraft has about 8 destinations per day or 16 soundings opportunities – 7200 soundings
• Expansion of parameters from aircraft include water vapor, turbulence (EDR), and icing. Some proto-typing effort for air quality measurements (European MOZAIC Program)
• Enhanced data monitoring/QA providing RMSE and bias by tail #
Future Directions: Commercial Aircraft Observations
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Adaptive Sounding Strategy Notional Plan
• Use alternative sounding from commercial aircraft if WV instrumented aircraft has a scheduled ascent or descent at an airport which is within:
• XX miles of radiosonde site
• YY minutes of radiosonde valid time
• CONOPS:
• Lead Meteorologist at closest WFO coordinates sounding strategy
• Short (<3 hrs) and long term (6 month) public notices disseminated indicating product availability and associated WMO Heading and circuits
• Soundings from aircraft publicly available in near real-time
• Alternative sounding strategy limited to:
• 1 of 2 sounding launches per radiosonde station (initially)
• CONUS Non-GUAN stations
• Outcomes:
• $4M/yr in cost avoidance from radiosonde expendables
• Redundant observations eliminated
• Greater % of Data Requirements Achieved
13
Adaptive Sounding Strategy: Weather Enterprise Input
A few questions…
• How do you currently use radiosonde observations?
• What do you know about atmospheric observations from commercial
aircraft?
• What transition issues might you have with use of aircraft observations
as an alternative to radiosonde observations?
• How can NOAA best communication data quality issues associated with
aircraft observations?
• How does the proposed adaptive sounding strategy timeline impact
you?
• How can we recruit Weather Enterprise contacts to answer these and
other issues associated with the Adaptive Sounding Strategy???
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Radiosonde (purple) and WVSSII (black) Comparison
April 26, 2005
AMDAR Observations
34K Reports in 12 Hours
Questions and Comments:
David Helms
Office of Science and Technology
NOAA’s National Weather Service
Bldg: SSMC2, Rm: 15334
Mail Code: W/OST12
1315 East-West Highway
Silver Spring, Maryland 20910
Email: [email protected]
Phone: 301-713-3557 x193
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The Analysis of Record (AOR)
• Analysis of Record
• A comprehensive set of the best possible analyses of the atmospheric variables at high spatial and temporal resolution with attention placed on weather and climate conditions near the Earth’s surface.
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The Analysis of Record (AOR) Project Components
• Phase I: Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)• A quick analysis using few computer resources.
• Proof of Concept for AOR.
• NCEP EMC and GSD volunteered to build first phase.
• Phase II: Analysis of Record (AOR)• A delayed, comprehensive truth analysis using late arriving data and
more computer resources.
• Phase III: The Reanalysis• A 30 year history of AORs analyzed using AOR system.
• Apply the resulting analysis to local climate studies.
17
The RTMA
• Description
• RTMA: A high-spatial resolution analyses of sensible weather variables disseminated to forecasters and external users.
• Affordable application of a state-of-the-art analysis system.
• Generated by NCEP’s 2DVar analysis.
• Available to forecasters at HOUR + 43 min – goal is + 35 minutes
• Production and Data
• Initial set of variables produced hourly at 5 km resolution: temperature (2 m), dew point (2 m), wind direction (10 m), wind speed, precipitation estimate, sky cover estimate.
• Analysis uncertainty of first four elements provided and expressed in same units as surface variables.
• Distributed in GRIB 2 by AWIPS SBN as part of OB 7.2 upgrade.
• Archived at NCDC.
• Uses various data sources (e.g., surface, buoys, radar).
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The RTMAData Resources
• NCEP obtains full compliment of observations
• Conventional observations through the TOC.
• Mesonets through MADIS at GSD.
• MesoWest will be an alternate path to MADIS during AOR due to the ability to store and forward old data transmitted in bursts from some sites.
• RTMA uses several thousand observations.
• Analysis Verification
• Cross-validation
– Withhold small percentage of obs from analysis
– Only way to verify analysis for analysis sake
– Can withhold and internally compare analysis
– Future performance metrics will be based on improvement over this Baseline
19
The RTMAAnalysis Scheme
• Reasons the RUC is used as a first guess for RTMA
• Hourly mesoscale analysis.
• Designed to fit observations.
• Full-physics model.
• Assimilation of full mesonet observations, except winds.
• Generated by NCEP’s 2DVar analysis.
• Downscaled from 13 to 5 km as an extra module at end of RUC post-processing code.
• RUC 1-hour is used as RTMA background.
• Why use a 2DVar solution? • 2DVar is a subset of NCEP’s 3DVar GSI (Grid-point Statistical Interpolation).
• 2DVar is already running in NAM.
• Anisotropy built into 2D-Var provides way to restrict influence of observations on elevation.
• 2DVar is fast enough to run in NCEP production suite.
• Produce an estimate of analysis uncertainty.
20
• Milestones and Project Schedule
• Initial, experimental RTMA products generated routinely and transmitted through NOAAPort: August 2006
• RTMA survey results compiled and analyzed: Second Quarter FY 2007
• Operational testing and acceptance completed: Second Quarter FY 2007
• Start OCONUS development, if funding is available: First Quarter FY 2007
• Start development of additional meteorological parameters, if funding is available: First Quarter FY 2007
• Implement OCONUS RTMA, if funding is available: FY 2008.
• Implement training: Second Quarter FY 2007
The RTMA Schedule
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RTMA 2 m Temperature Analysis
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• RTMA provides an affordable solution for an NDFD-matching verification.
• Enhanced analysis of surface weather variables available for situational awareness and other operational applications.
• Provides a proof-of-concept for main AOR with applications for other NOAA offices.
• Transfer of the RTMA to operational status will greatly increase the daily usage in operations and is the next important step in the RTMA evolution.
RTMA Summary
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• RTMA Evaluation Web Site
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/rtma/
• Established by EMC’s Geoff Manikin (January 2006)
• 7 geographical sub-regions displayed:
NE, DC, FL, MW, TX, NW and SW
• RTMA experimental hourly sky product is displayed at http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/goes/sdpi/html
• RTMA precipitation estimate graphics are at
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpanl/
Information Sources
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Current CapabilityNDFD
Experimental elements:• QPF• Snow Amount• Sky Cover• Significant Wave Height• Wind gust – added 09/06/06
Operational elements:
• Maximum Temperature
• Minimum Temperature
• Temperature
• Dew Point
• Probability of Precipitation
• Weather
• Wind Direction
• Wind Speed
• Apparent Temperature *
• Relative Humidity *
* Derived fields
Operational & experimental elements available for
CONUS, Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands, Hawaii, Guam
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HAWAII NDFD
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Alaska grids
New experimental elements for Alaska – added 09/06/06
• Max Temp
• Min Temp
• POP12
• Significant Wave Heights
• Wind Speed
• Wind Direction
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Probabilistic Winds – Operational
• Graphical
• Text
• Experimental in the NDFD
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Probabilistic Storm Surge – Experimental
• www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/
• Two choices:
Overall chance storm surges will be greater than 5 feet above normal tide levels during the next 2 days
Pre Katrina
Post Katrina Storm surge heights, in feet above normal tide level, which have a 10 percent chance of being exceeded during the next 3 days
MainlandMississippi
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Experimental storm surge
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Extreme Wind Warning
• http://www.weather.gov/os/hurricane/eww.htm
• Purpose
• New for 2006
• Extreme Wind Warning Product for 2007
• Beyond 2007
31
NWS Budget
FY06 enacted - $826M (cumulative shortfall of $ 51M in operations)
FY 07 PB - $ 882M
• + $38 M for operations (shortfall reduced to $ 30M)
• + $18 M for systems
FY 07 House Mark - $ 885 M
FY 07 Senate Mark - $ 927 M
• Earmarks - $ 15 M
• NDBC - $ 28 M