The GOES-R Proving Ground 2009 Spring Experiment at NOAA’s

Hazardous Weather Testbed

Christopher Siewert

OU-CIMMS / SPC

Russell Schneider

SPC

Eric Bruning

UMD / CICS

Steve Goodman

GOES-R Program Office

Jim Gurka

GOES-R Program Office

Bob Rabin

NSSL / UW-CIMSS

2009 NWA Annual Meeting – October 21, 2009

Forecaster Needs

• Incorporating new products into a forecaster’s routine difficult• Must provide information already not available to

forecaster through other means• Must replace something currently used that they

already have confidence in• Must have knowledge on product limitations• Must use regularly to gain comfort

GOES-R Proving Ground at the SPC• Integrate GOES-R products into real-time operational

testing prior to launch• Day-1 readiness

• Goals• Provide product developers with useful feedback on

product usefulness/performance through detailed interactions with forecasters and real-time testing

• Provide forecasters with product education and quality display

• Aid successful AWIPS-II integration• Bring a satellite perspective to the heart of radar country

EFP EWP

GOES-R PG

ExperimentalForecastProgram

ExperimentalWarningProgram

Prediction of hazardous weather

events from a few hours to

a week in advance

Detection and prediction of hazardous weather

events up to several hours

in advance

NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed

2009 Spring Experiment Activities

• In concert with EWP, EFP and VORTEX-II during April-June 2009 severe weather season

• 2-3 visitors per day (13 total this year)• Interact with EWP/EFP/VORTEX-II forecasters on a constant

basis• Provide local expertise on satellite products/techniques• Expose non-satellite community to satellite capabilities

• Hourly convective forecast activities during convectively active periods• Constant interaction with products in real-time forecast environment

• Daily morning post-mortem analysis of product performance

Initial Products & Examples

• Four GOES-R Proving Ground products available at the SPC for 2009 Spring Experiment• 15-minute Cloud-top Cooling (CTC) Rate (UW-CIMSS)

• Monitors cloud-top IR brightness temperature based on an operational cloud mask using a box-averaging method

• Convective Initiation (CI) Nowcast (UW-CIMSS)• Based on CTC product with more stringent requirements for cloud-top

microphysical properties

• 10-km Total Lighting Source Density (SPoRT/NSSL)• Re-sampled from three LMA networks (Huntsville, AL, Washington DC

and Norman, OK)

• 0-1 Hour Probability of Severe Hail (CIRA)*• Based on RUC objective analysis fields and cloud-top temperature**

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0348 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX TO THE BIG COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262048Z - 262215Z

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH OVER TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSTM INITIATION INTO LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE

BUOYANCY APPEARS MAXIMIZED. BUT...AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 22Z ALONG VARIOUS SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS W-CNTRL TX INTO

THE BIG COUNTRY. DESPITE MODEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED

FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A MESOLOW AROUND 20 N MWL WITH SEVERAL RATHER DIFFUSE

TROUGHS/BOUNDARIES REMAINING EVIDENT IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION NOW OVER ERN TX. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED CU/TCU INCREASING FROM THE PERMIAN

BASIN INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. MODIFIED 12Z MAF RAOB SUGGESTS THIS AREA IS UNCAPPED TO MIXED-LAYER

PARCELS. GIVEN TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AOA 40 DEG F...DRY MICROBURSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR. FARTHER

EAST...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS PERSIST ACROSS NERN TX...ALTHOUGH SHRINKING IN AREAL EXTENT AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MIX NWD. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE NEAR-TERM MAY REMAIN SUPPRESSED BY LARGER-SCALE DESCENT IN THE AFTERMATH OF MCS ALONG THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. OPERATIONAL AND HI-RES MODEL

GUIDANCE VARY SUBSTANTIALLY WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING

ACROSS N-CNTRL TX. IF IT DOES OCCUR...THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

2145

2202

2215

2232

Expanding Cloud Edges

Thin Cirrus

Opportunities to Grow• Provide select products for real-time testing within SPC operations• Expanded product suite possibilities

• Leverage use of current GOES sounder TPW/LI/CAPE products• Improved CI/CTC• ‘Nearcast’ product• 8-km flash initiation and extent densities; pixel-level and cell trends• Ingest data from additional LMA networks• Synthetic satellite from NWP and MODIS imagery• Overshooting top/Enhanced-V detection

• Additional Experiments• Fire weather/heavy rain experiment (August/September)• Winter weather experiment (December/January)

• Expand integration with HWT forecast/warning programs• Increased interaction with operational community towards common goals

(ie – aviation wx, warn-on-forecast)