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April 17, 2006

LeRoy Spayd

Chief, Meteorological Services Division

Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services

NOAA’s National Weather Service

Unidata Policy CommitteeUnidata Policy CommitteeNOAA/NWS StatusNOAA/NWS Status

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Outline

• Integrated Upper-air Observing System (IUOS)

• Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS)

• Digital Services

• NWS Budget

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Implementing an Integrated Upper-air Observing System (IUOS)

Strategy and Roadmap

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NOAA’s Observation System Target Architecture

PartnershipsNational International

Target Architecture Principles:

• Utility•Focus on societal benefits•Requirements-based•All data archived and accessible

• Interoperability•Full and open data sharing•Standards-based

• Flexibility•Leverages new technology

• Sustainability•Build on existing systems

• Affordability•Effectively use non-NOAA systems

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BackgroundToward Integrated Observing Systems

• Need for improved and cost-effective observations of Earth system driving plans for integrated observing systems in NOAA, nationally, and globally through GEOSS

• In NOAA, plans underway for integrated ocean (IOOS) and surface (ISOS) observation systems

IOOS ISOS

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BackgroundWhy IUOS?

• NOAA currently spends $100M/yr on upper-air observations (not including satellites)

• Platforms and DMAC fragmented across LOs,

Programs, and Goals resulting in duplication

and cost-inefficiency

• New systems coming

• NPN refurbishment and expansion

• MDCRS/Water Vapor Sensing System (WVSS)

• Radiosonde Replacement System (RRS)

• PDM direction to begin eliminating radiosonde/aircraft observation duplication

• Radars, UAS, Satellites, …

• Plan is needed for integrated upper-air observation system (IUOS) supporting NOAA mission linked to IOOS and ISOS

Upper-air SystemAverage Annual Investment

Amount, FY08-12 ($M)

Aircraft Obs 4.86

Communications 6.69

GPS IPW 0.45

Lightning 0.75

Profilers 11.21

Radar 46.99

Radiosondes 14.02

Adaptive Obs 14.30

Total 99.27

NOAA Investment/yr ($M) by System

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What is IUOS?Definition

• Complete network (including DMAC) of all upper-air observation systems available to NOAA regardless of:

• parameter,

• data quality,

• ownership,

• timeliness, or

• redistribution rights

Aircraft Observations over U.S.

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What is IUOS?Mission and Requirements Space

• IUOS Mission: Cost-effectively meet existing NOAA upper-air observation requirements; and future validated requirements for:

• Improved spatial, temporal, and spectral resolution

• New observations of environmental parameters

• Data Management and Communications (DMAC)

• Upper-air observation requirements space:

• Geographical Extent: Global

• Vertical Extent: 10 m above surface to Sun

• Temporal Range: Warnings to Global Climate Change Prediction

• Parameters: Winds, temperature, pressure, moisture, air chemistry, reflectivity, aerosols, biology, ….

IUOS part of GEOSS

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What is IUOS?Solution Characteristics

• IUOS solution characteristics – Future IUOS will be:

• Adaptable, extensible, stable, continuous, and quality assured

• Cost-effective – avoid unnecessary duplication

• Serving multi-purposes - including driving Earth-system models

• Consistent with/component of USGEO and GEOSS

• Final Operating Capability:

• “Optimal” mix of NOAA and non-NOAA observation platforms including both in situ and remote sensors based on NOSA Architecture Principles

IUOS Platforms and Sensors

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Where are We?Known Components of Future IUOS

• Radiosondes with GPS (RRS) -- completed by FY 08

• Aircraft

• 1700 aircraft (MDCRS) today expanding to 2000 by FY 12

• 25 aircraft with WVSS today expanding to 1135 by FY 12

• NOAA directing elimination of redundancies between radiosondes and aircraft observations starting in FY 08

• Refurbished/expanded NOAA Profiler Network (NPN)

• Completed by FY 09

• IOOS expanding NPN to coastal areas in FY 07

• Satellite evolution will occur, but details unclear

• GPS IPW, UAS, Phased Array radar, and other new technologies on/over horizon

Aircraft Obs

(MDCRS) Routes

Potential New IOOS Profilers

Profilers

Existing NOAA Profilers

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How will we get there?Implementation Strategy -- Phased

In the context of existing observing systems…

• Phase 1: Integrate In Situ Regional Soundings (IOC – FY08)

• Platforms: Radiosondes, aircraft (MDCRS, WVSS, TAMDAR)

• DMAC: Ensure compliance with GEO-IDE Principles and Standards

– ditto in subsequent phases

• Phase 2: Integrate Regional Soundings (IOC – FY10)

• Platforms: Phase 1+ Profilers (NPN), Cooperative Agency Profilers (CAP),

GPS Integrated Precip. Water (IPW), Satellite Soundings and IPW

• Phase 3: Integrate Regional Radar Observations (IOC – FY12)

• Platforms: Phase 2+NEXRAD, TDWR, Dual Pol, Phased Array, Other Radars (e.g.,

Commercial, CASA)

• Phase 4: Integrate Adaptive Observations (IOC – FY 14)

• Platforms: Phase 3+G-IV, P-3, UAS

• Phase 5: Integrate Use of Future Satellite Observations (IOC – FY 16)

• Platforms: Phase 4+GOES-R, NPOESS, Other satellites

W&W/NWS Lead

Other NOAA Lead

Satellite Radar

Adaptive In Situ

IUOS Components

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How will we get there?System Roadmap for Phases 1-3

80

1600

52

04 0605 07 08 09 10 11 12

102

22

4037

38

35

30

PART-Bed

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Radiosonde92 NWS, 10 Caribbean

Profilers

1-for-1 RAOB/Aircraft Obs

Radar (Phased Array)

Actual # profilers required determined by Int. Reg. Sndg

195018501750Aircraft (MDCRS) Communications and Optimization Unfunded

160 635

45

285Aircraft w/Water Vapor

Radar (FAA TDWR)

ESA Galileo IOC FY08

Radar (Dual Pol)

Actual # 1-for1 stns determinedBy In Situ Sndg Strategy

98

Radar (Other, NetRad/CASA)

43

46

2000

885

?

148

43

52

2000

1135

?

158

# FAA TDWRs Determined by Int Radar Strategy

100% Complete

FY15

FY15

4 8 12OK

T-BedOK

T-BedOK

T-Bed

Phase 1 – In Situ Sndgs

Phase 3 – Int Radar

102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102

69 78 10215 57

RRS

460

17001500 1800 1900

25 35

35353535

Profilers - 449 MHz Sites4 4 4

403730 43 4314

PART-Bed

PART-Bed

PART-Bed

PART-Bed

FY15

45FYXX

Phase 2 – Int Region Sndgs

FY06 Earmark funds all 102 stations for RRS upgrade

GPS IPW 200Actual # GPS-Met IPW Determined by Int. Reg. Sndg

FYXX

? ?? ?4 10

5050505050

R&D Sites

OperationalSites

50 50 5050

Buoy Mounted Profilers 2

4

27 78 78

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Phase 1: Radiosonde/WV Aircraft Obs

PDM Guidance

FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12-2 -2 -3 -3 -3

• In FY06:

• Evaluate model response to water-vapor sensor derived data

• Evaluate implications of

– forecasters using different data source and,

– reaction of broader US weather enterprise.

• Use evaluation to develop plan for implementation

• In FY08: Begin eliminating redundant capability for weather observations

PDM Guidance ($M)

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Phase 1: One-for-One (Radiosonde vs. WVSS)

Sounding Exchange

• Leverage aircraft water vapor sensor profile

• Utilizes vertical data sets from ascent & descent of aircraft

– Obtains higher resolution observations

• Reduce total number of launches of Radiosondes

• Target sites outside of Climatological Requirements

• Targeted sites will launch 1 per day

– Allows limited specials for severe weather and other discrete events

• Saves $’s by reducing expendables

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Phase 1: One-for-One (Radiosonde vs. WVSS)

Sounding Exchange

Items FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12Consumable Radiosonde

Supplies 1/ $180 $180 $180 $180 $180Number of Sites 22 30 38 48 52

Subtotal 3,960 5,400 6,840 8,640 9,360Number of Days 365 365 365 365 365

Total Savings 1,445,400 1,971,000 2,496,600 3,153,600 3,416,400

Estimated Cost SavingsOne Radiosonde Launch Eliminated per Day

1/ Limited to costs for expendable supplies such as helium, balloon, parachute, etc Labor costs not included

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NOAA IUOSCurrent Data Management Capacity

• Observing system architecture and data management are fragmented across LOs, Mission Goals, and Programs

Sensors System Monitoring QC/QA Distribution ArchiveGOES/POES SOC SOC GOES/POES, NOAAPORT NCDCNPN NPN Hub NPN Hub MADIS, NOAAPORT NCDC/FSLNLDN Vaisala Vaisala Vaisala, NOAAPORT VaisalaWSR-88D ROC WFO, RFC, ROC AWIPS WAN, NOAAPORT NCDCASOS Ceilometer AOMC WFO, AOMC NOAAPORT NCDCGPS IPW NPN Hub NPN Hub NPN Hub FSLRadiosonde WFO, Gateway, WFO, NCEP, Gateway NOAAPORT, GTS NCDC

GCOS-GUAN NCDC NCDCMDCRS Air Carriers, ARINC NCEP, MADIS ARINC, NOAAPORT FSLP-3, G-IV AOML, OMAO NCEP, AOML FTP, NOAAPORT NCDCPIREPS/AIREPS RTVS, ARMS NCEP, NCDC NCEP, NCDC NCDC

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NOAA IUOSEnd State: Data Management

Functionally Streamlined

System Component System Monitoring DistributionArchive

1. Satellites Satellite Ops Center NOAAPORT NNDCsResearch Satellites * Integrated QC/QA NOAA Central PortalNPOESS/GOES-R * Metadata NNDC E-commerce

* Data Continuity/Calibration NNDCs/SAA* Performance Monitoring

2. Radar/VHF/Lidar Terrestrial Remote NPN Sensing Monitoring CenterWSR-88D, TDWR * Integrated QA/QCGPS IPW * MetadataRadiometer * Data Continuity/CalibrationASOS Ceilometer * Performance MonitoringLightning Data (NLDN)

NetRad/Commercial Radar

3. In Situ Sensors In Situ Monitoring CenterRadiosonde * Integrated QA/QCAMDAR/MDCRS/TAMDAR * MetadataASAP * Data Continuity/CalibrationPIREPS/AIREPS * Performance Monitoring

4. Targeting/Adaptive Sensors Adaptive Obs Monitoring CenterP-3. G-IV, UAS * Integrated QA/QCSFMR * MetadataDriftsondes * Data Continuity/CalibrationDropsondes * Performance Monitoring

* Targeting/Uncertainty

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Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Update

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IOOS: According to Ocean.US

The IOOS is a coordinated national and international network of observations and data transmission, data management and communications (DMAC), and data analyses and modeling that systematically and efficiently acquires and disseminates data and information on past, present and future states of the oceans and U.S. coastal waters to the head of tide.

- From the IOOS Development Plan

[Adopted by ICOSRMI]

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Background – IOOS the Big Picture

• The U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System Development Plan is an Interagency Committee on Ocean Science and Resource Management Integration (ICOSRMI) plan

• AGM for FY 08-12: NOAA must “manage Earth observations on a global scale, ranging from atmospheric, weather, and climate observations to oceanic, coastal, and marine life observations”

• IOOS is designated as a NOAA Major Project:• NOC and NOSC oversight• Manager: Dave Zilkoski; Deputy: Mike Johnson; DMAC Focal Point: Kurt

Schnebele

The US Ocean Action Plan calls for IOOS

GEOSS is a comprehensive, coordinated, and sustained international network of observations

IOOS is the US contribution to GOOS which is the ocean component of GEOSS

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IOOS Components

• U.S. IOOS has three interdependent subsystems:

• Observing (Global and Coastal components)

• Data Management & Communication (DMAC)

• Modeling and Analysis

MA

Coastal OceanCoastal OceanComponentComponent

GLs NE

SEGo

Mex

PacIsl

GoA

NW

Global Ocean Global Ocean ComponentComponent

National Backbone

Regional Observing Systems

Resolution

Lower

Higher

DMAC*DMAC*C&No

CalSoCal

Partners:Partners:

Federal Agencies NOAA NSF Navy NASA EPA USGS MMS USACE

Regional Associations

State Agencies

WMO/IOC

Partners:Partners:

Federal Agencies NOAA NSF Navy NASA EPA USGS MMS USACE

Regional Associations

State Agencies

WMO/IOC

* Ocean Component of NOAA GEO IDE

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NOAA’s IOOS Observing SystemsBy NOAA Mission Goal (As defined in the

NOAA Observing System Architecture)

Commerce & Transportation

• Hydrographic Surveys (includes bathymetry)

• National Current Observations

• National Water Level Obs. Network (NWLON)

• Phy. Oceanographic Real Time Sys. (PORTS)

• Shoreline Surveys

Climate IOOS Arctic Observing System IOOS Argo Profiling Floats* IOOS Drifting Buoys IOOS Ocean Carbon Networks* IOOS Ocean Reference Station* IOOS Ships of Opportunity IOOS Tide Gauge Stations IOOS Tropical Moored Buoys

Ecosystems Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP)* Coral Reef Ecosystem Integrated Observing

System (CREIOS) Commercial Fisheries-Dependent Data Economic/ Sociocultural Observing System* Ecosystem Surveys Fish Surveys National Observer Program Protected Resource Surveys Recreational Fisheries-Dependent Data System-Wide Monitoring Program (SwiM) for

Marine Sanctuaries* System-Wide Monitoring Program (SWMP) for

National Estuarine Research Reserves Passive Acoustics Observing System* National Status and Trends Program*

Weather & Water Coastal Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) DART Voluntary Observing Ships Weather Buoys SEAWIFS*

CoastalTotal Systems: 23

Mission Support NOAA Ships NOAA Aircraft* NOAA Satellite (managed outside of IOOS)

GlobalTotal Systems: 8

* - NOAA is working to update Interagency IOOS documentation

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IOOS Observing Subsystem: Global Component

Designed to meet climate requirements but also supports:

Weather prediction Global and coastal ocean prediction Marine hazards warning Transportation Marine environment and ecosystem

monitoring Naval applications Homeland security

Objectives are well defined with GPRA performance measures.

Well coordinated nationally and internationally.

System 55% complete. NOAA capacities:

$43.5 million 19 centers of expertise 151 people Office of Climate Observation - a

demonstration project directly applicable to the IOOS Project.

NOAA contributes 53% of the present international effort.

IOOS Tide gauge stations IOOS Drifting Buoys IOOS Tropical Moored Buoys IOOS Argo Profiling Floats IOOS Ships of Opportunity IOOS Ocean Reference

Stations IOOS Ocean Carbon Networks

IOOS Arctic Observing System Dedicated Ship Support Data & Assimilation

Subsystems Management and Product

Delivery Satellites (managed outside of

IOOS)

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IOOS Observing Subsystem Components: Coastal Component- National Backbone

Designed to meet IOOS societal goals and all 5 NOAA Mission Goals

Also supports other agency and partner efforts to manage our Nation’s oceans, coasts, and Great Lakes

Coordinated nationally and regionally focusing on partnerships.

System 25 – 35% complete.

Better defining objectives and working on developing strong GPRA measures.

NOAA capacities: ~$600M - $700M support

IOOS ~$55M/year is for

integration efforts 24 programs contribute,

8-9 major contributors Project Office in NOS

AA’s office coordinates NOAA-wide activities

NOAA contributes 55 -65% of the present national effort.

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IOOS Data Management and Communications Subsystem:

DMAC Definition

The IOOS is a coordinated national and international network of observations and data transmission, data management and communications (DMAC), and data analyses and modeling that systematically and efficiently acquires and disseminates data and information on past, present and future states of the oceans and U.S. coastal waters to the head of tide.

- From the IOOS Development Plan

[Adopted by ICOSRMI]

The DMAC is: Information technology infrastructure such as national backbone data systems, regional data centers, and archive centers connected by the Internet, and using shared standards and protocols.

- From the DMAC Plan (March 2005)

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IOOS DMAC Subsystem

Observation/Measurement Collection

Data Transmission

Primary data assembly, real-time quality control

Interoperable real-time distribution

Delayed mode (ecosystems, climate) data

assembly, quality control

Archive & access

Creating information products

Users: requirements & feedback

DM

AC

IOO

S

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NWS Digital Services Update

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Current CapabilityProduction

Experimental elements:• QPF• Snow Amount• Sky Cover• Significant Wave Height

Operational elements:

• Maximum Temperature

• Minimum Temperature

• Temperature

• Dew Point

• Probability of Precipitation

• Weather

• Wind Direction

• Wind Speed

• Apparent Temperature *

• Relative Humidity *

* as of 3/15/06

Operational & experimental elements available for

CONUS, Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands, Hawaii, Guam

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Planned Enhancements

Add as experimental elements during the next 12 months:

• Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probabilities from the Tropical Prediction Center

• National Convective Outlooks for Days 1 and 2 from the Storm Prediction Center

• Fire Weather Forecast Parameters

• Elements for Alaska

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Planned Enhancements

Improve over the next 12 months:

• Accuracy– Expand Guidance

e.g., Gridded MOS, Downscaled GFS

– Produce Gridded Verification

– Generate Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis fields

• Resolution– Provide NDFD forecast elements in 1-hour resolution for Days 1-3

– Separate files for Days 1-3 and Days 4-7

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Planned Enhancements

Improve over the next 12 months:

• Availability (reliability)– Transition to operational status XML web service

– Support operational status of NWS websites (99.9% uptime)

• Consistency– Improve and standardize forecasters’ grid-editing tools

– Modify collaboration thresholds and better procedures

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NWS Budget

• FY06 – NWS has a $51M deficit in a base operations budget of $610M (labor is $480M or 79%)

- Mitigation measures include:

- 10-15% labor reduction at NWS HQ

- 3% labor reduction in field

- Defer new technology improvements and IT refresh

(e.g.,TDWR access)

- Reductions in contracts/grants/travel/supplies/outreach

• FY07 - PB Base operations $655M (labor is $491M or 75%)

- Increases directed for buoys, tsunamis, facilities

- Deficit projected at $30M in President’s budget

- Expected deficit is at $40-$50M range due to unfunded pay raises, earmarks, rescissions