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3 Teamwork Partnerships are critical to ensure the right message is sent and received!
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Unidata Policy Committee
National Weather Service ReportOctober 25, 2004
LeRoy SpaydChief, Meteorological Services Division
Office of Climate, Water, and Weather ServicesNOAA’s National Weather Service
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Outline
• Teamwork• NWS Products and Service• National Digital Forecast Database
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TeamworkPartnerships are critical to ensure
the right message is sent and received!
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Teamwork• 751 Communities• 47 States
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StormReady Success Story Van Wert, Ohio F4 Tornado - 11/10/02Forecast & Detection
Forecast & Detection
WarningWarning
Dissemination
Dissemination
ResponseResponse
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TeamworkNational Research Council’s Report
• Today’s partnerships are sound and functioning well
• Recommendations include:– Congressional Mandate –
protect life and property– Public/Private Partnership
Process– Data and Products in
standardized format– New/Discontinue Products– Communicate Uncertainty
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Seamless Suite of Products
MinutesMinutes
HoursHours
DaysDays
6 – 10 Days6 – 10 Days
8 – 14 Days8 – 14 Days
MonthsMonthsSeasonsSeasons YearsYears
Forecast Uncertainty
Protection ofProtection ofLife & PropertyLife & Property
HydropowerHydropower RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem
State/LocalState/LocalPlanningPlanning
EnvironmentEnvironment
Flood MitigationFlood Mitigation& Navigation& Navigation
AgricultureAgriculture ReservoirReservoirControlControl
HealthHealth
SpaceSpaceOperationsOperations
TransportationTransportation
Fire WeatherFire Weather EnergyEnergy
OutlooksOutlooks
GuidanceGuidance
Threats Threats AssessmentsAssessments
ForecastsForecasts
WatchesWatches
Warnings & Warnings & Alert Alert
CoordinationCoordination
Fore
cast
Lea
d Ti
me
Fore
cast
Lea
d Ti
me
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Communicating Threats Severe Weather
Polygon Polygon EliminatesEliminatesFalse Alarm Area False Alarm Area
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Communicating Threats Hurricanes
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Communicating Threats Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
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Communicating Threats Urban Flooding - Gaston
August 30, 2004August 30, 2004
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Communicating ThreatsIndices
• Today– Wind Chill Index– Heat Health Index
• Tomorrow– Tornado F-scale Revision– Winter Storm Index?
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Seamless Suite of ProductsNational Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)
• Focuses NWS Meteorologist on Focuses NWS Meteorologist on MeteorologyMeteorology
• Allows Private/Public Sector to Access Allows Private/Public Sector to Access Data Base for Their Own ApplicationData Base for Their Own Application
• Timeframe: FY 2003 - 2005Timeframe: FY 2003 - 2005
Beyond 2005, Working Toward a Beyond 2005, Working Toward a Complete Seamless 4-D DigitalComplete Seamless 4-D Digital• ObservationsObservations• AnalysesAnalyses• ForecastsForecasts• Uncertainty InformationUncertainty Information• Outlooks, Watches, WarningsOutlooks, Watches, Warnings
Gridded Gridded Forecast Forecast DatabaseDatabase
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.
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Summary of NDFD Grid Readiness
• Operational status on December 1– Max Temperature– Min Temperature– PoP 12
• Conditionally ready for operational status – Improvements are necessary before declaring these grids operational– Temperature– Dewpoint– Weather
• Not ready for operational status– QPF– Snow amount– Sky cover– Waveheights– Wind direction and speed
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On December 1, 2004, portions of the NDFD will become an official NWS product. Specifically, the NWS has determined that 3 of the initial 12 experimental elements will be declared official. These three official elements include: • Maximum temperature • Minimum temperature• Probability of precipitation PoP12
This represents an initial operating capability IOC for NDFD. The NWS expects to continue to improve the reliability, accuracy, consistency, and timeliness of the grid elements after NDFD IOC. Until the NWS completes backup server upgrades on March 1, 2005, users may experience service delays on rare occasions.
The nine remaining elements from the original set will retain their experimental status while they are improved and evaluated. Users will be given 30 days notice when an element moves from experimental to official status. The NWS will announce by December 15, 2004, which additional elements will be transitioned to official NWS products on January 15, 2005.
IssuePublic Information Statement
(September 16, 2004)
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NDFD element review– Comparison to recommended product transition
criteria• Spatial Consistency• Timeliness• Completeness
– Assessment of NDFD verification scores• Forecast error• Forecast bias
– Subjective look at grid quality• Appearance• Other issues
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NDFD Error Scores
MAE andBrier Scores CONUS August 2004
MaxT
MinT
PoP
QPF
Sky
Snow
Temp
Dew
Wave
WDir
WSpd
Wx
NDFD Day 1-3
2.75 2.94 .117 3.23 3.36 0.76 38.52
4.04
MOSDay 1-3
2.66 2.65 .115 2.71 2.87 33.79
3.12
NDFD Day 4-7
4.19 4.17 .129 4.48 4.71 59.76
5.10
MOSDay 4-7
3.92 3.72 .129 3.86 4.16 n/a n/a
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NDFD Bias Characteristics
CONUS2004
MaxT
MinT
PoP
QPF
Sky
Snow
Temp
Dew
Wave
WDir
WSpd
Wx
NDFD Day 1-3
good good n/a + variance late in day
good good n/a slight + bias
n/a
MOSDay 1-3
good good n/a good good n/a good n/a
NDFD Day 4-7
good good n/a + variance late in day
good n/a strong + bias at night
n/a
MOSDay 4-7
good good n/a good good n/a n/a n/a
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Element Summary Review
NDFD element
Spatial Consist-ency
Timeli-ness
Complete-ness
Error Scores
Bias Character-istics
Subjective Factors
Current Readiness
Official
Max T good good good good good good high 12/1/2004
Min T good good good good good good high 12/1/2004
PoP good good good good good marginal high 12/1/2004
QPF good poor marginal
unknown unknown poor low
Sky good marginal
marginal
unknown unknown poor low
Snow good good good unknown unknown poor lowTemp good poor margina
lmarginal poor marginal medium
Dew marginal
poor marginal
marginal good marginal medium
Wave marginal
poor poor incomplete
incomplete
poor low
WDir marginal
marginal
good marginal n/a poor low
WSpd good marginal
good marginal poor poor low
Wx good good good unknown n/a marginal medium
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Background Material
– Border Consistency Maps– Timeliness Maps– Completeness Maps– NDFD Error Charts– NDFD Bias Charts– Example NDFD Images
• Ones suitable for framing• Ones to hide in the attic
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Border Consistency
Max Temp 97%Max Temp 97%
Min Temp 97%Min Temp 97%
PoP12 97%PoP12 97%
QPF 97%QPF 97%
Snow Amt 99.82%Snow Amt 99.82%
Sky 97%Sky 97%
Criteria >= 90%Criteria >= 90%
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Border Consistency
Temperature 95%Temperature 95%
Dewpoint 91%Dewpoint 91%
Wave Height 92%Wave Height 92% Wind Direction 91%Wind Direction 91%
Wind Speed 99.62%Wind Speed 99.62%
Criteria > = 90%Criteria > = 90%
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Timeliness
MaxT 98%MaxT 98%
MinT 99%MinT 99%
PoP12 98%PoP12 98%
QPF 92%QPF 92% Snow Amt 97%Snow Amt 97%
Sky 95%Sky 95%
Criteria >= 95% WFOs Criteria >= 95% WFOs 90% of the time90% of the time
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Timeliness
Temperature 92%Temperature 92%
Dewpoint 90%Dewpoint 90%
Wave Height 78%Wave Height 78% Wind 94%Wind 94%
Criteria >= 95% WFOs Criteria >= 95% WFOs 90% of the time90% of the time
Weather 97%Weather 97%
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Completeness
MaxT 97%MaxT 97%
MinT 98%MinT 98%
PoP12 97%PoP12 97%
QPF 97%QPF 97%
Snow Amt 99.82%Snow Amt 99.82%
Sky 93%Sky 93%
Criteria >= 95% WFOs Criteria >= 95% WFOs 95% of the time95% of the time
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Completeness
Temperature 97%Temperature 97%
Dewpoint 96%Dewpoint 96%
Wave HeightWave Height 85%85% Wind 97%Wind 97%
Criteria >= 95% WFOs Criteria >= 95% WFOs 95% of the time95% of the time
Weather 97%Weather 97%
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NDFD Error ChartsMax Temp
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NDFD Error ChartsMin Temp
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NDFD Error ChartsPoP12
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NDFD Error ChartsTemperature
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NDFD Error ChartsDewpoint
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NDFD Error ChartsWind Speed
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NDFD Bias ChartsTemperature
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NDFD Bias ChartsDewpoint
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NDFD Bias ChartsWind Speed
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Example NDFD Images some good ones
• Saturday morning in Northern Rockies– Maximum Temperature– PoP12– Sky Cover– Wx– Temperature– Dewpoint– QPF– Snow Amount
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Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies
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Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies
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Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies
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Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies
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Example NDFD Images some not so good ones
• Clouds by zone• Uncoordinated QPF• Daily battle with dewpoints• Uncoordinated Wave Height• Wind Speed during Ivan• Weather by zone• Misconfigured WFO grids• Missing Grids
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Example NDFD image Clouds by zone
Congruent day 1 forecastCongruent day 1 forecast Less congruent day 4 forecastLess congruent day 4 forecast
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Example NDFD imagesUncoordinated QPF
Inconsistent forecastInconsistent forecast Same forecast issued 3 hours laterSame forecast issued 3 hours later
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Example NDFD Images Daily battle with dewpoints
Dry in Davenport and NashvilleDry in Davenport and Nashville Humid in Davenport and NashvilleHumid in Davenport and Nashville
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Example NDFD Images Uncoordinated wave height
Coordination glitches during big eventsCoordination glitches during big events
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Example NDFD ImagesWind speed during Ivan
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Example NDFD Image Weather coverage by zone
Impressive with minor exception in MichiganImpressive with minor exception in Michigan
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Example NDFD Images Misconfigured WFO grids
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NDFD Example Images Missing grids
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Summary
• First 3 Grid Elements official December 1• Monthly trends show gradual improvement• NWS working on improving methodology,
developing better QA smarttools, sharing best practices