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• Global Monsoon Team Lead– Song Yang

• Regional Monsoon Group Leads

– Africa: Wassila Thiaw– Asia-Australia: Muthuvel Chelliah– North America: Wei Shi– South America: Viviane Silva

• Global Monsoon Team members:

– Yun Fan– Jon Gottschalck– Wayne Higgins– Vern Kousky– Vadlamani Kumar– Kingtse Mo– Jae Schemm– Wanqiu Wang– Pingping Xie– Soo-Hyun Yoo– Qin Zhang

The Climate Prediction CenterGlobal Monsoon Monitoring Activity

Wassila M. ThiawClimate Prediction Center

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Outline

• Objectives

• Global monsoon briefing page features

• Climate risk assessments

• Domestic and International Outreach

• Future Development and challenges

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Climate Prediction CenterMission Statement

• “We deliver climate monitoring, assessment, and prediction products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy.”

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• Consolidate climate monitoring efforts at CPC

• Better understand the global monsoon systems

• Improve forecasts

• Provide advanced notice on potential climate and weather related hazards

Objectives

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• CPC unified gauge-based precipitation data

• Other CPC precipitation data sets

• NCEP reanalysis

• NCEP global forecast system and ensembles

• NCEP coupled forecast system

• Data from international partners

Current Data

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2. Current StatusGlobal Monsoon Web-Page Features

• Recent evolution: total and anomalies (Last 90, 30, and 7 days)– Sea surface temperature– Winds (200 and 850 hPa)– Velocity potential (200 hPa)– Soil moisture– Precipitation– Outgoing longwave radiation– Temperature – 2 meter

• Regional monsoons briefing web pages

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Global PatternsGlobal Monsoon Monitoring Website

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monsoons/

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Velocity Potential and Precipitation Anomalies11 Jul – 8 Oct 2008

Precipitation Anomalies

200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies

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2. Current StatusRegional Monsoon Web-Page Features• Animation of weekly OLR, 200 hPa streamlines, and

850 hPa winds

• Recent evolution (Last 180, 90, 30, and 7 days)– Precipitation maps and time series– Temperature – 2 meter– SST and soil moisture– Winds and water vapor flux

• Weekly monsoon updates (PPT)– Highlights (last 7 days)– Recent evolution (Last 180, 90, 30, and 7 days)– Week1 & Week2 outlooks– Summaries

• GFS Forecasts

• Seasonal monsoon summaries

• Annual monsoon reports

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Regional Precipitation Anomalies

90-day P anomaly Jul 11 – Oct 990-day P anomaly Jul 9 – Oct 7

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Global and RegionalClimate Risk Assessment

NOAA-USDAJoint Agricultural Weather

Facility (JAWF)

Weekly Crop Bulletin

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Domestic and InternationalOutreach Potentials

• Email list– Weekly ppt updates sent to over 400 people

• US Military– Advance warning for coastline erosion– Fishery protection

• NHC– Advance warning of potential for Atlantic hurricane

activity

• NWS WFOs• Academic institutions

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Domestic and InternationalOutreach Potentials

• USAID Famine Early Warning System Network– Support FEWSNET humanitarian assistance: Africa,

Afghanistan, and Central America

• USAID Asian Flood Network & Africa Programs– Support USAID/OFDA capacity building efforts

• National Meteorological Services– Knowledge of the state of the global climate– Improve local climate monitoring and predictions

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Future Development and Challenges

• Develop monsoon indices for all regions

• Develop forecast forums for monsoon regions

• Develop customer tailored products

• Challenges– Limited predictability on both subseasonal and

seasonal time scales– Limited resources for Research and Development– Inconsistency in current precipitation data

North American MonsoonNorth American Monsoon

• During JJAS 08, both southwest US (AZ/NM) and NAM core area received above-average precipitation.

• Onset date: July 04 (based on rainfall data) in AZ/NM region (average ~ July 03).

• Very wet July associated with active tropical cyclone activities in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Gulf of California moisture surges. Australian MonsoonAustralian Monsoon

• In the winter (DJF) of 2007-2008, the monsoon rainfalls over northern Australia and the maritime continent were above normal. Larger rainfall anomalies occurred over the equatorial regions than over northern Australia.

• Apparently strong intraseasonal variability appeared from the monsoons over Australia and Indonesia during the DJF monsoon season.

East-Southeast Asian MonsoonEast-Southeast Asian Monsoon

• The onsets of summer monsoons over the Indo-China peninsula and the South China Sea in 2008 were earlier than normal. The onset of Mei-yu over eastern China was also earlier than normal.

• In summer 2008, monsoon rainfalls were above normal over most regions in East Asia and Southeast Asia, especially over southern China, the South China Sea, and the maritime continent. Below-normal monsoon rainfall was observed over the southern and eastern Indo-China peninsula.

Indian MonsoonIndian Monsoon

• The southwest summer 2008 monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent was near to slightly above normal.

• Early season torrential rains along a broad swath of the Gangetic plains in the foothills of the Himalayas contributed to flooding in the region and positive anomalies in the seasonal mean map. Below normal rainfall occurred farther south in the peninsular region. However, later in the season the situation tended to reverse, leading to an overall near-normal rainfall season for the country as a whole.

• A prominent aspect of the large-scale pattern of precipitation in the region was a pronounced E-W dipole in the tropical Indian Ocean (not shown) with a positive anomaly center in the western Indian Ocean. In addition, an SST dipole was observed in the tropical Indian Ocean. The possible effects of these on the Indian monsoon rainfall, especially the flooding in northeastern India, are not clear and need to be studied.

Global Monsoons WebpageGlobal Monsoons Webpage

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoonshttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons

For questions or comments, please contact:

Song.Yang@noaa.gov(for general issues about the CPC Global Monsoons products)

Muthuvel.Chelliah@noaa.gov(Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi@noaa.gov(North American monsoon)

Viviane.Silva@noaa.gov(South American monsoon)

Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov(African monsoons)

Sahel MonsoonSahel Monsoon

Southern African MonsoonSouthern African Monsoon

• Southern Africa rainfall was near average during Dec-Feb 2007-08, with the exception of central and northern Mozambique and northeastern South Africa, where rainfall was 100 to 150 mm above the climatological mean.

• The near-to-above average rains may be a response to the La Nina episode during Dec-Feb 2007-08

• The 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly also featured a weak low centered along the west coast of southern Africa over Namibia.

• Four tropical cyclones (Elnus, Fame, Ivan, and Jokwe) made landfall over Madagascar or moved over the Mozambique Channel during the 2007-08 season.

• Similarly to the most recent period (2005-2007), the West African monsoon season was once again very active during Jul-Sep 2008.

• Enhanced rainfall activity prevailed across the Sahel and in many areas in the Gulf of Guinea region.

• The rainfall anomaly pattern over Africa was associated with a wave number one pattern in the upper-level velocity potential during Aug-Sep 2008, with divergence across Africa and the Maritime Continent, and convergence across much of the Pacific. Persistent low level westerly wind anomalies across the eastern tropical Atlantic contributed to low-level convergence and increased moisture flux over West Africa.

• The enhanced monsoon was partly associated with the lingering effects of the moderate La Nina episode of 2007/2008.

South American MonsoonSouth American Monsoon

NOTE: There is a lack of data for Colombia and Venezuela, so the deficit in rainfall over those regions is not real.

• The pattern of rainfall departures for the water year (July 2007-June 2008) is similar to the composite for La Niña episodes.

Precipitation Departures: July 2007-June 2008

• During the period 1 July 2007-22 June 2008 rainfall was below normal the southern Amazon, portions of southeastern and southern Brazil, portions of Uruguay and eastern Argentina. Above-normal rainfall was observed over southern Colombia, Ecuador, most of Peru, the eastern Amazon and northeastern Brazil.

Precipitation Departures: Onset Phase (Sep-Nov 2007)

• During the 90-day period (1 September-30 November 2007) rainfall was below normal over most of Brazil, with rainfall deficits exceeding 175 mm in portions of the southern Amazon, and central and southeastern Brazil (red oval). Above-normal rainfall was observed over southern Colombia, northern Peru, Ecuador, eastern Bolivia, most of Paraguay and portions of southern Brazil and Uruguay.

Precipitation Departures: Mature Phase (Dec 07-Feb 08)

• During the 90-day period (1 December 2007-29 February 2008) rainfall was below normal over most of Brazil south of the equator, with rainfall deficits greater than 250 mm in portions of central and southeastern Brazil (red oval in right panel). Above-normal rainfall was observed over southern Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, Paraguay, northern Chile and northwestern Argentina.

Precipitation Departures: Decay Phase (Mar-May 08)

• During the 90-day period (1 March-31 May 2008) rainfall was below normal over the southern Amazon, southern Brazil, Uruguay and eastern Argentina. Above-normal rainfall was observed over southern Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, the eastern Amazon and northeastern Brazil.

The 2008 Global Monsoon PosterCPC Monsoon Working GroupCPC Monsoon Working Group