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VSiN.COM - VEGAS STATS & INFORMATION NETWORK

AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3

Welcome to Week 7 of the 2017-18 Point Spread Weekly. This week’s publication covers the sixth week of the NFL season and the seventh week of college football. Can you believe we are this far along already? Seems like the preseason just started. What a season we are having already though, right? In the NFL, parity reigns, as only a single team is undefeated after five weeks, thus the ’73 Dolphins need only worry about the Kansas City Chiefs before they can once again meet to toast and celebrate their unmatched perfection. On the opposite side of the spectrum, there are three teams that have yet to win: the

N.Y. Giants, Cleveland and San Francisco.

In college, it seems parity has gone out the window, with what appears to be an inevitable course to a third straight championship game matching Clemson and Alabama. That said, perhaps Penn State, Georgia, or Washington--the rest of the current top 5--can eventually challenge the last two national champions. Or, perhaps like Oklahoma last week, the Tide or Tigers could be tripped up along the way. Doesn’t seem like it, but you never know. That’s why they play the games. Speaking of which, we will continue to cover ALL of the games from a betting perspective for both college & pro football the rest of the way.

The season is off to a pretty good start for some of our handicappers, as Matt Youmans in the NFL and Paul Howard in college football are setting a torrid pace in their Best Bets, with Youmans at 17-7-1 ATS for 73%, and Howard at 19-10-1 ATS for 66%. Youmans is hitting in overall picks as well in the NFL with a 33-15 ATS record (69%). If you haven’t been following his analysis closer in recent week, we encourage you to start. His “Games to Watch” feature has been well received by most readers, so hopefully you feel the same way.

Besides the usual stats, trends, picks, and other matchup features in this week’s pub, look for the first part in an exclusive college football article series that focuses on home performance. Next week we’ll cover road performance, but this week’s article looks specifically at how teams have performed at home in the last 3+ seasons as compared to how they were expected to do. This variance is what we term TRUE HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE.

In the NFL ranks, I finish up a two-part series as well, this time looking at Post-Bye Week Trends & Systems. Not counting the unexpected byes of Miami and Tampa Bay, this week’s NFL schedule offers the first time to bet on teams coming out of their bye weeks. Brent’s Opening Lines column also digs into the NFL, looking specifically at some of the huge point spreads we have for consideration this weekend. Jeff Fogle also has an intriguing tutorial piece called “The Dangers of Getting Cute with NFL Favorites of -5 to -6.5”. He has a unique take on the subject and offers up some recent sample games to get you thinking. Finally, the newest member of our team, Dave Tuley brings another edition of “Tuley’s Takes” for this weekend’s NFL board.

We appreciate your continued support of the Point Spread Weekly and hope that you are enjoying it enough to make it a permanent part of your handicapping routine. If you are continuing to be a weekly reader, we encourage you to sign up for the long haul at VSiN.com/subscribe. While there be sure to check out all of the other great features we have to offer on the website.

Best of luck this week on all the action!

Steve Makinen @SteveMakinenEditor

Welcome to Point Spread Weekly

indexIndexRotation Schedule ..........................................................................................................................................3VSiN NFL Consensus .....................................................................................................................................4Matt Youmans’ 3 NFL Games to Watch ..........................................................................................................5Tuley’s Take ....................................................................................................................................................6Opening Lines by Brent Musburger ................................................................................................................9NFL Post Bye Week Trends and Systems....................................................................................................10NFL Strength Ratings ...................................................................................................................................13NFL Matchups ..............................................................................................................................................14NFL Top Weekly Trends ...............................................................................................................................21Top NFL Head to Head Trends .....................................................................................................................22Recent NFL Head to Head History ...............................................................................................................22The Dangers of Getting Cute with NFL Favorites of -5 to -6.5 .....................................................................24NFL Observations .........................................................................................................................................26Football Line Moves .....................................................................................................................................27VSiN College Football Consensus ...............................................................................................................28Matt Youmans’ 3 College Football Games to Watch ....................................................................................29College Football Strength Ratings ................................................................................................................30College Football Matchups ...........................................................................................................................32True Home-Field Advantage in College Football ..........................................................................................54College Football Top Weekly Trends ............................................................................................................60Top CFB Head to Head Trends ....................................................................................................................61Recent CFB Head to Head History...............................................................................................................62CFB Observations ........................................................................................................................................68

On our cover: Matt Youmans, Jonathan

Von Tobel and Dave Tuley host a new show

on VSiN. It’s called “The Starting Lineup”

and will run from 4-5 p.m. PT on Sundays.

The crew will take a first look at the opening lines for college and pro games for the

coming week.

YOUR TRUSTED SOURCE FOR EXCLUSIVE SPORTS GAMBLING NEWS, ANALYSIS AND DATA

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Rotation Schedule101 S ALABAMA 48 48 151 TCU -4.5 -4.5 203 TEXAS A&M 54 52

P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN2 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM FOX 1 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN2102 TROY -17 -17 152 KANSAS ST 56.5 53.5 204 FLORIDA -4 -2.5

153 OLD DOMINION 50.5 53 205 SOUTH CAROLINA 49 48P: 11:30AM C: 1:30PM E: 2:30PM ESPN3 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN

154 MARSHALL -17 -16 206 TENNESSEE -2.5 -2.5103 PHILADELPHIA 45 46 155 FLORIDA ST -6.5 -6.5 207 AUBURN -6 -6.5

P: 5:25PM C: 7:25PM E: 8:25PM CBS P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN2 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM CBS104 CAROLINA -3 -3.5 156 DUKE 46 43.5 208 LSU 46 44.5

157 HOUSTON -13 -14 209 MICHIGAN ST -3 -4.5P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM ESPNN P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM BIG10

158 TULSA 61.5 65 210 MINNESOTA 41.5 40107 TEXAS ST UNIV 60.5 58 159 MIDDLE TENN ST -4 -5 211 OREGON 60 61.5

P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM ESPNU P: 3:30PM C: 5:30PM E: 6:30PM P: 8:00PM C: 10:00PM E: 11:00PM FOX 1108 LA LAFAYETTE -15 -15 160 UAB 57 56 212 STANFORD -11 -11

161 GEORGIA ST 57 57 213 WASHINGTON -17 -18P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM ESPN3 P: 7:45PM C: 9:45PM E: 10:45PM ESPN

109 CLEMSON -21 -23 162 LA MONROE -6 -7 214 ARIZONA ST 63.5 62P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN 163 CHARLOTTE 48 46.5 215 NEW MEXICO 55 54

110 SYRACUSE 56 55.5 P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM P: 7:00PM C: 9:00PM E: 10:00PM 111 WASHINGTON ST -14 -13 164 W KENTUCKY -18 -17 216 FRESNO ST -3 -2.5

P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM ESPN 165 WYOMING 55 49 217 BOISE ST 51 44.5112 CALIFORNIA 58 53 P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM CBSC

166 UTAH ST -3.5 -3 218 SAN DIEGO ST -7 -7167 UNLV 68 68.5 219 SAN JOSE ST 61 63.5

113 PURDUE 53 52 P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM P: 9:00PM C: 11:00PM E: 12:00AM P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM BIG10 168 AIR FORCE -11 -7.5 220 HAWAII -18 -18

114 WISCONSIN -18 -16 169 NEVADA 59.5 65.5 221 CINCINNATI 66.5 69.5115 NORTHWESTERN -3.5 -3.5 P: 7:15PM C: 9:15PM E: 10:15PM ESPN2 P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM ESPNU

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPN2 170 COLORADO ST -25 -25 222 SOUTH FLORIDA -25 -25116 MARYLAND 59 49.5 171 APPALACHIAN ST -10 -13 223 GEORGIA TECH 54 52.5117 MIAMI OHIO -9.5 -9.5 P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM ESPN3 P: 11:30AM C: 1:30PM E: 2:30PM ABC

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPN3 172 IDAHO 48.5 48.5 224 MIAMI FL -7.5 -6.5118 KENT ST 43.5 43 173 UTAH 53.5 54.5119 OHIO U -8 -9.5 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ABC

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPN3 174 USC -13 -13120 BOWLING GREEN 57.5 59.5 175 COLORADO -13 -12121 AKRON 59 57 P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM PAC12 251 CLEVELAND 44 45

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM CBSC 176 OREGON ST 55.5 55.5 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 122 W MICHIGAN -13 -14 177 UCLA 74.5 79 252 HOUSTON -9 -10123 TOLEDO -9.5 -7.5 P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM PAC12 253 NEW ENGLAND -9 -9.5

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPN3 178 ARIZONA 0 -1.5 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 124 C MICHIGAN 60.5 62 179 VANDERBILT 55.5 55.5 254 NY JETS 47 47.5125 E MICHIGAN 45 45 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM SEC 255 MIAMI 47.5 47

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM CBSC 180 OLE MISS -3 -3 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 126 ARMY -5.5 -4.5 256 ATLANTA -10 -12127 N ILLINOIS -3.5 -4 181 OKLAHOMA -8 -7.5 257 DETROIT 51 51

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPN3 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPN P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 128 BUFFALO 50.5 48.5 182 TEXAS 63 63 258 NEW ORLEANS -3 -4129 CONNECTICUT 60 62.5 183 OHIO ST -22 -24 259 GREEN BAY -4 -3.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPNN P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM FOX 1 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 130 TEMPLE -13 -10 184 NEBRASKA 56.5 56.5 260 MINNESOTA 47 47133 VIRGINIA -2.5 -4 185 BYU 45 46 261 CHICAGO 40 40

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM SEC P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 134 NORTH CAROLINA 55 55 186 MISSISSIPPI ST -21 -23 262 BALTIMORE -7 -7135 RUTGERS 47 48.5 187 ARKANSAS 57 55.5 263 SAN FRANCISCO 46.5 46.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM BIG10 P: 4:15PM C: 6:15PM E: 7:15PM ESPN P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 136 ILLINOIS -2.5 -2 188 ALABAMA -31 -30 264 WASHINGTON -11 -9.5137 TEXAS TECH 80 78 189 BAYLOR 71.5 70.5 265 LA RAMS 44 44

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPNU P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM FOX 1 P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM 138 WEST VIRGINIA -6 -3 190 OKLAHOMA ST -23 -26 266 JACKSONVILLE 0 -3139 NC STATE -11 -12 191 MISSOURI 56.5 57 267 TAMPA BAY 0 -2.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM SEC P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM 140 PITTSBURGH 58 56 192 GEORGIA -30 -31 268 ARIZONA 44.5 44.5141 MICHIGAN -6 -6 193 NAVY 74.5 75 269 PITTSBURGH 47 46

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ABC P: 12:45PM C: 2:45PM E: 3:45PM ESPNU P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM 142 INDIANA 48 46 194 MEMPHIS -5.5 -4 270 KANSAS CITY -4 -4143 EAST CAROLINA 67.5 73 195 NEW MEXICO ST -6 -8 271 LA CHARGERS 48 48

P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM CBSC P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM ESPN3 P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM 144 UCF -32 -34 196 GA SOUTHERN 59 59.5 272 OAKLAND -5.5 -5.5145 TULANE -11 -14 197 UTEP 53.5 52.5 273 NY GIANTS 41 40

P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM NBC146 FLA INTERNATIONAL52.5 47.5 198 SOUTHERN MISS -21 -23 274 DENVER -9.5 -12147 BOSTON COLLEGE 55.5 57 199 COASTAL CAROLINA 64 62.5

P: 9:20AM C: 11:20AM E: 12:20PM P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN3148 LOUISVILLE -20 -22 200 ARKANSAS ST -21 -19 275 INDIANAPOLIS 49 49149 KANSAS 68 68 201 TX-SAN ANTONIO -4.5 -2.5 P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN3 276 TENNESSEE -8.5 -8.5150 IOWA ST -20 -21 202 NORTH TEXAS 60 60

NFL WEEK 6 cont'd

BYES: BUF, CIN, DAL, SEA

MONDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2017

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 7 COLLEGE FOOTBALL continued COLLEGE FOOTBALL continued SATURDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2017SATURDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2017WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2017

NFL FOOTBALL WEEK 6

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 7 cont'dTHURSDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2017

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2017

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2017

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2017

* Played in Dallas, TX

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2017

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Matt Youmans 33-15 (69%)

Jonathan Von Tobel 21-27 (44%)

Power Rating 30-18 (63%)

Effective Strength 23-25 (48%)

Bettors Ratings 27-21 (56%)

Consensus 29-19 (60%)

Thursday, October 12, 2017 - (103) PHILADELPHIA at (104) CAROLINA (-3.5)Philadelphia Philadelphia Philadelphia Carolina Philadelphia Philadelphia

Thursday, October 12, 2017 - (103) PHILADELPHIA at (104) CAROLINA - TOTAL (46)OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER

Sunday, October 15, 2017 - (255) MIAMI at (256) ATLANTA (-11.5)Atlanta Miami Atlanta Atlanta Miami Atlanta

Sunday, October 15, 2017 - (255) MIAMI at (256) ATLANTA - TOTAL (47)OVER OVER OVER UNDER UNDER OVER

Sunday, October 15, 2017 - (257) DETROIT at (258) NEW ORLEANS (-4.5)Detroit Detroit Detroit Detroit Detroit Detroit

Sunday, October 15, 2017 - (257) DETROIT at (258) NEW ORLEANS - TOTAL (51)OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER

Sunday, October 15, 2017 - (265) LA RAMS at (266) JACKSONVILLE (-3)LA Rams Jacksonville LA Rams Jacksonville LA Rams LA Rams

Sunday, October 15, 2017 - (265) LA RAMS at (266) JACKSONVILLE - TOTAL (44)UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER OVER UNDER

Sunday, October 15, 2017 - (273) NY GIANTS at (274) DENVER (-12)NY Giants NY Giants NY Giants NY Giants NY Giants NY Giants

Sunday, October 15, 2017 - (273) NY GIANTS at (274) DENVER - TOTAL (40)UNDER UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER

VSiN NFLConsensus

NFL Best Bets

TODD DEWEYLV Review-JournalLast week: 1-4Season: 11-14Panthers -3Texans -9.5Falcons -11Jaguars -2.5Chiefs -4

BRETT LAWSONVSiN.comLast week: 2-3Season: 9-16Eagles +3Texans -9.5Lions +4.5Bears +7Giants +12

MITCH MOSSVSiN.comLast week: 4-1Season: 14-11Dolphins-Falcons Under 47Lions +4.5Packers-Vikings Under 47Cardinals +2.5Chiefs -4

JONATHAN VON TOBELVSiN.comLast week: 3-2Season: 13-12Lions +4.549ers +9.5Jaguars -3Steelers +4Giants +12

MATT YOUMANSVSiN.comLast week: 2-2-1Season: 17-7-1Lions +4.5Bears +749ers +9.5Rams +2.5Chiefs -4


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PACKERS-VIKINGSIf you need a laugh, look back at the 2005 NFL Draft and be amazed at how various teams used the first 23 picks. Not all of those teams needed a quarterback at the time, of course, but all of those teams now wish they had Aaron Rodgers, who went 24th to Green Bay. No player in the league is worth more to the point spread. No player is more dangerous to bet against. Rodgers’ latest comeback, a last-minute masterpiece in Dallas, was nearly as remarkable as the one he staged in last season’s playoffs against the Cowboys. It might not matter how many players are listed on the Packers’ injury report this week. Is Green Bay forced to go with backup offensive tackles and a backup running back? No big deal. If Rodgers is good to go, that’s about all that matters. Not long ago, he predicted a 4-6 team would run the table, and then he delivered six consecutive wins. Case Keenum has a few good games on his resume, one coming in relief Monday night, and he will need a great one to beat Rodgers on Sunday. This is assuming Keenum will be Minnesota’s starter, because Sam Bradford looked old and slow in his return from a knee injury and single-handedly kept the Chicago Bears in the game. The Packers-Vikings line has been off the board, but figure Green Bay to be a 3½-point favorite. The odds are against Minnesota with either Bradford or Keenum. The Packers have several problems, yet Rodgers more than picks up the slack. He has been sacked 19 times, tied for most in the league, but seems untouchable when a game is on the line. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer oversees the No. 8-ranked scoring defense (18.6 points per game) and he will send creative blitzes and find ways to pressure Rodgers. Last year in Minneapolis, Zimmer’s defense limited Rodgers to 14 points in a Minnesota win. Rodgers has a 3-1 record, with seven touchdown passes and one interception, in his past four trips to Minneapolis. His top receivers — Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and Martellus Bennett — are healthy and rookie running back Aaron Jones, a fifth-round pick from Texas-El Paso, rushed for 125 yards against Dallas. The Vikings are going to really miss rookie running back Dalvin Cook in games like this. Anyone who bet against the Packers last week should be leery of doing it again this week. Right now, it’s lay a few points with Rodgers or pass.

STEELERS-CHIEFSA week after wide receiver Antonio Brown threw an immature fit on the sideline, running back Le’Veon Bell called out the offensive coordinator for a lame game plan. Ben Roethlisberger, who triggered Brown’s fit by not throwing him the ball, threw five interceptions and tossed himself under the bus. “Maybe I don’t have it anymore,” Big Ben said. The Pittsburgh Steelers are a mess, which means one of two things will happen this week in Kansas City. Either the Steelers will bounce back, showing their pride and talent, or get blown out, exposing their dysfunction. Whatever the result, expect a spirited speech to be delivered by coach Mike Tomlin. The Steelers are scripting a soap opera to match the NFC East drama created by the Cowboys and Giants. Despite all of the talent — though it’s apparent Roethlisberger is slipping — Pittsburgh ranks 17th in total offense (331.8 yards per game) and 19th in scoring (19.8). The once-boring Chiefs happen to lead the league in scoring (32.8). Alex Smith is the highest-rated (125.8) passer in the NFL while putting up bigger numbers than Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers. Smith, who has 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions, is actually stretching the field with vertical throws. He’s no longer Captain Checkdown, and he has a lot of help. Kareem Hunt, a rookie from Toledo, is the league’s rushing leader with 609 yards. Tyreek Hill is the offense’s X-factor with speed to burn. Tight end Travis Kelce has 29 receptions. When the Chiefs went to New England on the season’s opening night, who knew Kansas City would be emerging as the top team in the league? It’s not even debatable at this point. But the Chiefs do have a weakness. Surprisingly, it’s a defense that ranks 27th by allowing 366 yards per game and is without star safety Eric Berry for the rest of the season. In a January playoff game, the Steelers kicked six field goals to win 18-16 at Kansas City. It’s obvious that flop was a turning point for the Chiefs, who traded up to draft a quarterback and motivate a change in Smith, the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft. It’s way too soon to write off Pittsburgh. Big Ben still has something left, and Brown leads the league in receiving yards. Bell, who carried 35 times for 144 yards in a win at Baltimore on Oct. 1, carried only 15 times for 47 yards in a 30-9 loss to Jacksonville in Week 5. Bell will get handed a heavy workload this week. The play-caller might be wearing a dunce cap, but he’ll get smarter. Eventually, the Steelers will pull things together, but it might not happen against Kansas City, which is rolling and has a point to prove after its pathetic offensive performance in the playoffs. It’s tough to bet against the Chiefs, who are 5-0 straight up and against the spread.

GIANTS-BRONCOSIn disastrous present times, it’s time to ponder the future in New York. The Giants (0-5) are destined to get a high draft pick and they need to scout for a quarterback. Eli Manning is nearing the end of the road as he heads to Denver, where the road ended for his older brother. The Giants’ offensive problems are not all on Manning. The running attack is absent, the receiver corps is decimated and the line is leaking in front of a quarterback who has no mobility and diminishing arm strength. The coach is no offensive guru, either, so it’s also time to search for a competent coach to replace the bungling Ben McAdoo. All of that said, the Giants have lost three games by five points or fewer. But how competitive can they be without wideout Odell Beckham Jr., their primary big-play threat? The Broncos rank No. 1 in total defense (260.8 yards per game) and No. 7 in scoring (18.5). The Giants’ most-used weapons this week will be their punter and placekicker. Denver, which scored 16 points in each of its past two games, is not lighting up scoreboards with Trevor Siemian at quarterback. The Broncos are 12-point favorites — after the line was quickly bet up from 9 — and it’s not easy to lay that number with a slow-striking offense against a respectable New York defense. Look for Manning to accomplish little, so first look under the total of 40½.

Matt Youmans’ 3 NFL Games to Watch

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I knew last week was going to be tough with so many NFL games priced between pick’em and -3, so it was expected that there were going to be a lot of close games.

In Sunday’s early games, I had the Jets plus-1.5 at the Browns, 49ers +1.5 at the Colts and the Bills plus-3 at the Bengals. Around noon Vegas time, all were still toss-ups and I could have been looking at anywhere from a 3-0 mark to 0-3. I ended up 1-2 as the Jets won 17-10, the Bills lost 20-16 and the 49ers lost 26-23 in overtime (which looked like it was going to end in a tie, which would have still given me the ATS win). I won with the Seahawks +1.5 in the afternoon games but lost with the Texans +1.5 in the Sunday nighter to go a disappointing 2-3 with my best ATS best here in Point Spread Weekly as well as in the SuperContest (15-10, 60%, through 5 weeks). I also went 1-1 with over/under best gets as I won with the Chargers-Giants over and lost with the Panthers-Lions under. But this column isn’t all about the W-L record as I’m just as intent on giving betting strategies or reading the market (so hopefully this can be of value even if you don’t agree with certain picks), especially as it’s written Tuesday and a lot can happen by the time the NFL weekend rolls along. I was most pleased with my advice on the Vikings-Bears Monday night game in which I wrote that I would make the Bears a best bet at plus-3.5. Even though it wasn’t listed as a play (and not included in record above) as it was off the board at presstime, I hope some readers joined me on the Bears as they covered in their 20-17 loss. (Note: we don’t just ignore the losing picks here, so I should mention that another non-best bet/projection pick was on the Titans plus any points against the Dolphins. That game was also off the board at presstime, but I suggested a play on the Titans even if Marcus Mariota was declared out and they lost 16-10. However, the difference in that game ended up being a fluke fumble by Matt Cassel that was returned for a Miami TD. For naysayers that say that only happens to bad QBs, remember that a similar play happened to Aaron Rodgers in Week 2 at Atlanta.)

Despite the subpar record last week, I believe we learned a lot of things about these teams heading into a stretch of the season where I usually have had a lot of success. Of course, the oddsmakers also have a lot better handle on these teams, so let the bettors vs. bookies battle begin.

Without further ado, let’s go over the NFL Week 6 card. Even when I pass on a game, I always have a lot of people who still ask for my pick

as they have office pools or contests they’re involved with that require plays in every game, so I’ll at least give a “pool play” on each game and sometimes will offer an opinion on the over/under. Note: Lines are from the South Point as of noon Tuesday except where noted.

THURSDAY: PHILADELPHIA (O/U 46) AT CAROLINA (-3.5)Tuley’s Take: This is a nice Thursday night matchup of 4-1 teams. I have the Eagles rated a point better than the Panthers, so even with the game in Carolina, I was expecting the line around Panthers -2.5 or at most the -3 that was on the advance line at the Westgate last week, so this is an automatic play on the Eagles. Carson Wentz isn’t showing any signs of a sophomore jinx and he suddenly has a running game led by LeGarrette Blount. Granted, they face a tough defense in Carolina (ranked No. 3 in yards allowed per game), but that balance should help them keep up with Cam Newton & Co. as the Eagles’ defense (which is only No. 22 in yards allowed) has mastered the art of “bend but don’t break.” The play: Eagles plus-3.5.

CLEVELAND (O/U 46.5) AT HOUSTON (-9.5)Tuley’s Take: When an NFL teams gets more than a touchdown, I’m usually the first one to jump in on the underdog. Now, while I agree that the Texans probably shouldn’t be laying this many points to anyone despite Deshaun Watson’s heroics, I can’t back the Browns at this time. The last two weeks, I scoffed at the fact that the Browns were favored at any time over lowly teams like the Colts and Jets and was justified as they lost both games. Now, with Kevin Hogan taking over at QB, they’re stepping up in class and I can’t trust them to stay close enough even against the Texans’ injury-riddled defense. I would look to the under if Houston’s D was healthier, but I’ll pass on that as well. The play: Pass (pool play: Texans, though a few contrarian plays on the Browns in ATS pools).

NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) AT NEW YORK JETS (O/U 47.5)Tuley’s Take: Here we have another 9.5-point line, but this one is with a home underdog. I know I just called the Jets “lowly,” but that’s based on public perception because actually they’ve exceeded all expectations this year and are tied with the Patriots and Bills for first place in the AFC East at 3-2. This will probably come down to how well Tom Brady and the rest of the New England offense is playing. If they put up 30 points, then we might be in trouble of covering, but otherwise the Jets should be able to stay within the number against the Patriots’ No. 32-ranked defense. A lot of people are saying the defense is improved after allowing just 14 points to the Buccaneers last Thursday night, but a lot of that was due to Jameis Winston missing receivers. I’ll take my chances with Josh McCown in the game-manager role. The play: Jets plus-9.5 (pool play: still using Patriots in most of my SU pools but taking a few

Tuley’s Takesby Dave Tuley


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shots with Jets).MIAMI (O/U 47) AT ATLANTA (-11)Tuley’s Take: Wow, this week is so different than last week when so many games were close to pick’em (in fact, the lines were so tight that we didn’t have an underdog cover in a loss until the Bears’ 20-17 loss on Monday night as 3.5-point dogs). These points are tempting with the 3-2 Dolphins, but I just can’t the Falcons coming off their loss to the Bills and their bye week. The Dolphins’ defense is statistically close to the Bills, but I don’t think it’s as good and the Falcons bounce back here. Besides, I don’t trust the Dolphins’ offense (only one TD on final play vs. Jets, shut out by weak Saints’ defense in London, only one offensive TD last week) to be able to match the Falcons score for score. I would lean to the over, but not sure the Dolphins will contribute enough. The play: Pass (pool play: Falcons across the board).

DETROIT (O/U 50.5) AT NEW ORLEANS (-5)Tuley’s Take: The last we saw the Saints it was from London in early morning of Week 4 as they beat the Dolphins 20-0. They should benefit from the traditional bye week following a London trip (though the Dolphins bounced back last week with a win despite no bye), but I think they run into a buzzsaw here. I have the Lions rated better than the Saints, so like the Eagles-Panthers game earlier, I was expecting this to be under a field goal or at most 3 like the advance line at the Westgate. The Lions lost 27-24 to the Panthers since that line was made, but I don’t downgrade them that much so I’m glad to get the 5 points and the hook (many ways for an NFL game to land on 4: 24-20, 27-23, 28-24, etc.). Matthew Stafford has a lot of weapons to spread the ball around against a Saints’ defense that is still No. 29 in average yards allowed despite that shutout in London. The play: Lions plus-5.

GREEN BAY (-3) AT MINNESOTA (47)Tuley’s Take: When opening lines for this week were posted Sunday, this game was off the board at most books with the Vikings playing Monday night but also due to the uncertain status of Minnesota QB Sam Bradford, though as we saw Monday night, this team is pretty much the same (certainly better this last game) with Case Keenum under center, so books opened with Green Bay -3.5. It has since settled at -3 at most books. The Vikings are certainly tempting as a home underdog (I have home dogs at 14-12 ATS this season, so they’ve been barely profitable overall and not an automatic play) and they’ve played well against the Packers in recent years, splitting each year since 2013 to go 4-4 ATS. However, I don’t like that they lost at home to the Lions two weeks ago and then barely got by the Bears, a team that the Packers routed in Week 4, on Monday night. So, I’ll use the Vikes in some of my pools but I don’t like them enough to make them a best bet, especially if not able to get the hook at plus-3.5. The play: Pass (pool play: Vikings, but mostly split in SU pools with maybe a 60/40 split in ATS pools).

CHICAGO (O/U 40) AT BALTIMORE (-6.5)Tuley’s Take: The Bears have thrown in clunkers with their blowout losses to the Buccaneers in Week 2 and the Packers in Week 4, but they’ve been in every other game including beating the Steelers in Week 3 and nearly knocking off the Falcons in the season opener. I certainly think they can stick with the Ravens, who are coming off an impressive 30-17 rout in Oakland but also got whipped 44-7 by Jacksonville and 26-9 by the same Steelers that the Bears beat. I hope you were all able to grab the Bears plus-7 that was available earlier, but I’m so high on this play that I’m still making it a best bet as the line has been bet down to 6.5. The play: Bears plus-6.5 (pool play: taking Bears in nearly all ATS contests/pools but also probably 80/20 split in SU pools).

SAN FRANCISCO (O/U 46.5) AT WASHINGTON (-9.5)Tuley’s Take: Before their bye week, the Redskins beat the Rams and Raiders before falling just short against the Chiefs (and suffering a classic Bad Beat for their backers), so they’re playing at a pretty high level; however, the 49ers have been competitive despite their 0-5 record as they’re 3-2 ATS with their last two losses coming in overtime (albeit to lesser teams in the Cardinals and Colts). So, this line appears a little inflated, especially when considering it was 7 on Westgate’s advance line just last week. I definitely lean toward the 49ers, though I want the plus-10 for added insurance (and we’re seeing some of those pop up offshore on Tuesday morning). The play: Pass at 9.5 (pool play: 49ers in ATS contests/pools, especially at plus-10 or 10.5; mostly sticking with Redskins in SU pools).

LOS ANGELES RAMS (O/U 42.5) AT JACKSONVILLE (-2.5)Tuley’s Take: Here are two of the pleasant surprises of the young season and oddsmakers have them pretty even as the Jaguars are laying the -2.5 at home with most books going with the -120. Both have impressive victories but also disappointing losses, so we don’t know exactly which teams are going to show up so it’s hard to pick a side. However, I think both teams’ offenses are going to struggle against the others’ defenses, so under 42.5 looks like the play. I think we’re safe as long as Jared Goff or Blake Bortles don’t combine for multiple strip sacks or pick-sixes. The play: Under 42.5 (pool play: lean to Jaguars, but close to 50/50 split in all SU & ATS pools).

TAMPA BAY (-2.5) AT ARIZONA (44.5)Tuley’s Take: Here’s another home underdog where I just can’t convince myself to jump in (shameless plug alert), as was discussed with my VSIN colleague Matt Youmans when going over the opening lines on “The Starting Lineup” show on VSIN from 7-8 p.m. ET/4-5 p.m. PT on SiriusXM 204, vsin.com and the VSIN app). The Cardinals have since added Adrian Peterson, but I don’t see that automatically opening up

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the offense which is last in the league in rushing with just 259 yards in five games and a pathetic 2.6 yards per rush as even Peterson needs holes to run through. I don’t play favorites, but if you do I’d say the Bucs are the play as long as you lay under a field goal. The play: Pass (pool play: Buccaneers).

PITTSBURGH (46) AT KANSAS CITY (-4)Tuley’s Take: My biggest regret of Week 5 was not taking the Jaguars, the biggest underdog on the card, at plus-8.5 against the Steelers as they romped 30-9. I certainly didn’t expect the Steelers to unravel that badly and makes me hesitate looking at them as a 4-point dog here against the only 5-0 team in the league (and 5-0 ATS as well). But I have to look at the fact this line was only -2.5 on the Westgate’s advance line last week and conclude that this is too much of an adjustment. I’m going to count on the Steelers bouncing back from their embarrassing loss to the Jaguars just like they did in their 26-9 rout of the Ravens in Week 4 just seven days after losing to the Bears. I’ve done very well the last few years fading the Chiefs as they often grind out wins and fail to cover bigger numbers. This KC team is more explosive than most of those other teams, but I still see this coming down to a field goal either way. The play: Steelers plus-4 (pool play: Steelers also in more than half of my SU pools).

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (OFF) AT OAKLAND (OFF)Tuley’s Take: This game was still off the board as of Tuesday as oddsmakers want to make sure Derek Carr is returning for the Raiders. If you’re reading this, that means it was still off the board at deadline for Point Spread Weekly. If the lines get posted and I have a strong

opinion, we’ll send out an email blast later in the week. Having said that, I would need close to a TD to back the Chargers at Oakland. I would also lean to the over, though I expect the oddsmakers to set this pretty high (in the 50s) if Carr is a go. The play: Pass.

NEW YORK GIANTS (40) AT DENVER (-12.5)Tuley’s Take: One of my “basic strategy” plays in the NFL is double-digit underdogs. They’re just 2-2 ATS so far this year, though I’m kicking myself that I didn’t automatically play the 49ers against the Seahawks in Week 2 and Texans against the Patriots in Week 3 in the SuperContest as they both covered (fortunately, I passed on the Jets at the Raiders in Week 2 but did lose with the Colts at the Seahawks in Week 4). So, what to do with the Giants, who are 0-5 and lost Odell Beckham Jr. for the season as well as a lot of other weapons. How are they going to score or even move the ball against the No. 1 defense in the league? If the Giants’ defense was playing like it did last year, I would feel more comfortable in taking the points in a low-scoring game, but I think I’ll just stick with the under 40 as my only wager. The play: Under 40 (pool play: Broncos in all SU pools, but probably close to a 50/50 split in ATS pools).

MONDAY: INDIANAPOLIS (OFF) AT TENNESSEE (OFF)Tuley’s Take: This was also off the board as of Tuesday’s writing as the books wait for word on Marcus Mariota. Regardless of who starts for Tennessee, I expect the Titans to run over the Colts’ defense so I’m not expecting I’ll be backing the underdog here assuming the line isn’t over a touchdown. The play: Pass (pool play: Titans across the board).

Follow the Money (7-10 a.m. ET/4-7 a.m. PT): Two veterans of the Las Vegas sports betting scene, Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard, combine their knowledge of sports, gambling and pop culture for the perfect show to start VSiN’s broadcasting day.

A Numbers Game (10-noon ET): Radio personality and long-time podcaster Gill Alexander takes his audience on an informative ride through the analytics world, focusing on the unique, lesser-known numbers that fuel today’s modern bettors

(Follow the Money replay from Noon-3 p.m. ET)

The Edge (3-6 p.m. ET): Matt Youmans and Jonathan Von Tobel are VSiN’s odd(s) couple—one is a former newspaper reporter who has covered the Las Vegas scene for 17 years, the other is a millennial with an encyclopedic knowledge of sports.

My Guys in the Desert (6-8 p.m. ET): Hall of Fame broadcaster Brent Musburger brings his storytelling talents and his who’s who list of contacts to Las Vegas to revel in his semi-hidden pastime of betting on sports. His revolving cast of co-hosts includes oddsmaker Vinny Magliulo and reporter Ron Flatter.

VSiN Fall Weekday Lineup (7 a.m.-8 p.m. ET)


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Recreational bettors back teams, but sharps bet numbers. We have heard this for months from Gaughan Gaming’s Vinny Magliulo. That trend will really be put to the test in

the NFL in Week 6, when no fewer than five games feature underdogs of more than a touchdown. So wise guys, be ready to put your money where your mouth is, even if it takes some courage to back some dreadful teams. HOUSTON PLUS-9½ VS. CLEVELANDIf you like the Browns you have to put your faith in a shaky quarterback situation. When he was replaced last weekend by Kevin Hogan, rookie DeShone Kizer had already thrown for a league-high nine interceptions in five games. But look at Houston’s defense. The Texans have lost J.J. Watt and the often-overlooked Whitney Mercilus, so it will be up to Jadeveon Clowney to carry the load. The Browns have two players they can build on. Running back Duke Johnson averages nearly five yards a carry, and he is their leading receiver. And top draft pick Myles Garrett out of Texas A&M made an immediate impression in his first game, getting the first two of what will be a ton of sacks. He will be brimming with confidence going back to the Lone Star State to go after Deshaun Watson. NEW YORK JETS PLUS-9½ VS. NEW ENGLANDYou may cringe at the thought of putting any faith in Josh McCown. But as South Point sports-book director Chris Andrews said, “The guy has had a pretty long career in the NFL. Everybody is trying to get rid of him, but he’s really not bad.” With a modest passer rating of 90.5 and a three-game winning streak, McCown will be playing against a defense that is the worst in the league – a phrase that is as odd a fit for the Patriots as their being tied for first with the Jets and Bills. Let’s not forget that the Jets are 3-2 against the spread; the Patriots are only 2-3. Their last two straight-up wins were by only three and five points with a loss in between. MIAMI PLUS-11 AT ATLANTAThe Falcons are coming off a bye, so this is a well-rested football team eager to make amends for that loss to Buffalo. The Dolphins have the worst offense in the NFL, so the faith has to be in their top-10 defense anchored

up front by Cameron Wake and in back by safeties Nate Allen and Reshad Jones. The biggest issue for Miami this week is off the field. They need an offensive-line coach who does not snort his Splenda before reaching for the coffee. SAN FRANCISCO PLUS-9½ AT WASHINGTONThis is the 49ers’ third straight road game, and their second in a row at 10 a.m. on their body clocks. Their defense is ranked near the bottom of the league, but in fairness, that group led by Navorro Bowman, Elvis Dumervil and Ray-Ray Armstrong is the reason the 49ers have been hanging in there. They are 3-2 ATS, and they have lost their last four games by a field goal or less. NEW YORK GIANTS PLUS-12½ AT DENVERI always turn to the New York Post when there is trouble in the Big Apple, and there was a quote from coach Ben McAdoo of the 0-5 Giants. Asked about the loss of wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr., Brandon Marshall, Dwayne Harris and Sterling Shepard, he said, “My focus right now is trying to help the personnel department to field a football team, give us a chance to prepare and win.” Shepard is day-to-day with his ankle injury, but the others are done for the year. On defense Olivier Vernon and Jason Pierre-Paul are banged up, too. There is no darker picture for any team in the NFL. It is so bad, South Point’s Jimmy Vaccaro told me that one bettor dropped $50,000 to get the Broncos minus-11, moving the number early this week. Even though we have some fun at the expense of these teams, they are not going to go 0-for-Sunday. So if you buy into what Vinny said about sharps betting numbers, just sit down, hold your nose and reach for your wallet. Then I would advise you to take a long walk on Sunday rather than watch these teams. In the end they will spell the difference between filet mignon and McDonald’s.

Opening Lines by Brent Musburger

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A couple of issues ago in the PSW, I introduced the first of a two-part series analyzing trends and systems surrounding the bye week in the NFL. That piece dealt with the PRE-BYE WEEK data. In this follow-up piece, I will be dealing with the POST-BYE WEEK analysis.

Not counting the unexpected first post-bye week games of Miami and Tampa Bay back in week 2 because of Hurricane Irma’s impact on the opening week schedule, this week presents the first opportunity to wager on teams coming out of their bye week. There were four teams off last week, Atlanta, Denver, New Orleans, and Washington. You’ll want to look at their team trends specifically for this weekend’s games, and then hang on to this piece for future reference.

A couple weeks ago I reasoned that the bye week is always one of the most impactful variables on each team’s schedule for the season. Essentially, the bye week breaks up the routine in the NFL, and professional athletes’ performances can vary greatly when there are breaks in routine. These variances naturally offer up great wagering opportunities. Where the bye is placed and how the teams react in and out of that off week can often make the difference of one or two wins. That of course can affect whether or not a team makes the playoffs.

Clearly, the three-week period involving a team’s bye week (in, off, out) is huge. So let’s get to the data, first a group of league-wide systems you’ll want to digest, and second, team-by-team post-bye week trends, along with their scheduled post-bye week game for 2017.

Post-bye week system #1Play on ROAD FAVORITES coming out of their bye week. (Record: 67-37-2 ATS since ’99, 64.4%, +26.5 Units, 25.5% R.O.I., Rtg: 6*)

Post-bye week system #2Play on ROAD FAVORITES coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 23-6-1 ATS since ’99, 79.3%, +16.4 Units, 56.5% R.O.I., Rtg: 7*)

Post-bye week system #3Play on ROAD FAVORITES coming out of their bye week against divisional opponents. (Record: 27-10 ATS since ’00, 72.9%, +16 Units, 43.2% R.O.I., Rtg: 6*)

Post-bye week system #4Play UNDER the total in games involving a home favorite of 3.5 points or less coming out of its bye week in a divisional game. (Record: 33-14 since ’93, 70.2%, +17.6 Units, 37.4% R.O.I., Rtg: 6*)

Post-bye week system #5Play AGAINST TEAMS coming off their bye week when playing at home on Monday night against a division opponent. (Record: 16-6 SU & ATS since ’92, 72.7%, +9.4 Units, 42.7% R.O.I., Rtg: 5*).

POST-BYE WEEK TEAM TRENDSThe following teams were off in Week 4 of the NFL schedule, making the trends below applicable for this coming weekend’s games.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (post-bye week game: 11/5 @ San Francisco)• Arizona is 3-1 OVER the total in post-bye

week games under Bruce Arians• The Cardinals are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their L8

post-bye week games against divisional foes

ATLANTA FALCONS (post-bye week game: 10/15 vs. Miami)• Atlanta is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in its L8 post-bye

week games• The Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their L10 post-

bye week games when favored

BALTIMORE RAVENS (post-bye week game: 11/19 @ Green Bay)• Baltimore is on a 7-1 UNDER the total run in

post-bye week games• The Ravens have been one of the best post-

bye week teams in the NFL of late, 12-3 SU & ATS since ‘02

• Baltimore is a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS in its four previous post-bye week games vs. NFC foes

BUFFALO BILLS (post-bye week game: 10/22 vs. Tampa Bay)• Buffalo is on a 6-2 SU & ATS run in post-bye

week games at home• The Bills are 10-4 UNDER the total in their L14

post-bye week games at home

CAROLINA PANTHERS (post-bye week game: 11/26 @ NY Jets)• Carolina has gone OVER the total in three

straight post-bye week games• The Panthers have won & covered the

pointspread in back-to-back post-bye week games after losing their first four under Ron Rivera.

CHICAGO BEARS (post-bye week game: 11/12 vs. Green Bay)• Chicago has lost three straight post-bye

week games SU & ATS after going 7-1 in its prior eight

• The Bears are just 1-6 ATS in their L7 post-bye week games against divisional opponents

NFL Post-Bye Week Trends and Systems

by Steve Makinen


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CINCINNATI BENGALS (post-bye week game: 10/22 @ Pittsburgh)• Cincinnati has gone 5-0 ATS in five prior post-

bye week games against Pittsburgh• The Bengals are just 3-6 SU & ATS in post-bye

week games on the road under Marvin Lewis

CLEVELAND BROWNS (post-bye week game: 11/12 @ Detroit)• Cleveland is 1-5 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in its L6 post-

bye week games overall• The Browns’ franchise is 5-2 SU & ATS in seven

prior post-bye week games vs. NFC foes• Cleveland is on a 1-7 ATS slide as a post-bye

week underdog of 4.5-points or more

DALLAS COWBOYS (post-bye week game: 10/22 @ San Francisco)• Dallas is 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in its L10 post-bye

week games on the road but lost L2 ATS• Ten of the L12 Cowboys’ post-bye week

games have gone OVER the total• Since ‘93, the Cowboys are a perfect 4-0 SU

& ATS in post-bye week games against non-divisional NFC foes, winning by 19.3 PPG

DENVER BRONCOS (post-bye week game: 10/15 vs. NY Giants)• The Broncos had won six straight post-bye

week games SU & ATS prior to their home loss to Kansas City in 2016

• Since ‘95, the Broncos are a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS in post-bye week games against NFC foes, winning by 22.3 PPG

• Denver has gone 8-3 SU & ATS in its L11 post-bye week games at home

DETROIT LIONS (post-bye week game: 10/29 vs. Pittsburgh)• The Lions have won five straight post-bye

week games, both outright and against the spread, all by 7 points or less though

• Detroit has gone UNDER the total in six of its L7 post-bye week games at home

GREEN BAY PACKERS (post-bye week game: 11/6 vs. Detroit)• Green Bay boasts a 9-2 SU & 8-1-2 ATS

record in post-bye week games under Mike McCarthy, outscoring opponents 27.7-16.8 PPG on average

• The Packers are 10-0 SU & 5-4-1 ATS in their L10 post-bye week home games

• Green Bay has 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in post-bye week games against NFC foes

HOUSTON TEXANS (post-bye week game: 10/29 @ Seattle)• Houston boasts an impressive 5-1 SU & ATS

mark in its L6 post-bye week games• The Texans are 10-3 UNDER the total in

their L12 post-bye week games, scoring & allowing 17.6 PPG

• Houston has won four straight post-bye week games on the road, both SU & ATS

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (post-bye week game: 11/26 vs. Tennessee)• The Colts are on a 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS run in their

L5 post-bye week games versus divisional foes

• Going back to ’99, Indianapolis is on a huge OVER run in post-bye week games, 13-4-1, scoring 30.6 PPG while reaching at least 19 points each time out

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (post-bye week game: 11/5 vs. Cincinnati)• Jacksonville is on a 6-1 ATS run in post-bye

week games• Jaguars have not played a home post-bye

week game since 2010, but are on a 6-3 ATS run in such games as home chalk

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (post-bye week game: 11/19 @ NY Giants)• Kansas City has won three straight post-bye

week games SU & ATS, all on the road• Andy Reid is 17-2 SU & 14-5 ATS in post-bye

week games as a head coach• UNDER the total is 7-1-1 in Kansas City’s L9

post-bye week road games

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (post-bye week game: 11/12 @ Jacksonville)• The Chargers broke a 5-game post-bye

week ATS losing streak with their victory over Houston last season

• The Chargers are on a 1-4 & ATS slide as a franchise in post-bye week road games

LOS ANGELES RAMS (post-bye week game: 11/5 @ NY Giants)• The Rams are a solid 7-2-1 ATS in their L10

post-bye week games• Dating back to ’99, the Rams have been

a consistent OVER team in post-bye week games, 12-6

MIAMI DOLPHINS (post-bye week game: ALREADY PLAYED in WEEK 2)• The Dolphins have won three straight post-

bye week games while going 2-0-1 ATS• Miami is an ugly 1-7 SU & 1-6-1 ATS in its

L8 post-bye week games versus division opponents

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (post-bye week game: 11/12 @ Washington)• The Vikings are an ugly 1-6 SU & ATS in their

L7 games coming out of the bye week• Minnesota is on a 5-game SU & ATS losing

streak in post-bye week games on the road• The L4 Vikings’ post-bye week road games

went UNDER the total with them scoring just 11.0 PPG

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (post-bye week game: 11/12 @ Denver)• The Patriots are just 2-5-1 ATS in their L8 post-

bye week games overall• New England is 7-2 SU & ATS in post-bye

week games on the road since ‘02

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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (post-bye week game: 10/15 vs. Detroit)• New Orleans is 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in its L8 post-

bye week games overall• The Saints have won & covered five straight

post-bye week games at home, scoring 41.4 PPG

• New Orleans has gone OVER the total in eight of its L9 post-bye week games

NEW YORK GIANTS (post-bye week game: 11/5 vs. LA Rams)• The Giants are just 5-10-1 ATS in post-bye

week games since ‘01• New York has gone 6-1 SU but just 3-4 ATS in

its L7 post-bye week games at home

NEW YORK JETS (post-bye week game: 11/26 vs. Carolina)• The Jets have covered the spread in back-

to-back post-bye week games under Todd Bowles after going 1-5 SU & ATS in that scenario in the Rex Ryan era

• New York has gone 5-2 SU but just 3-4 ATS in its L7 post-bye week games at home

• In 10 post-bye week games as an underdog since ’95, New York has gone 8-2 ATS

OAKLAND RAIDERS (post-bye week game: Mon. 11/19 vs. New England in Mexico City)• Oakland is looking to extend a 5-game ATS

post-bye week winning streak• Head coach Jack Del Rio’s teams have won

four straight post-bye week games SU & ATS

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (post-bye week game: 11/19 @ Dallas)• Philadelphia has gone just 2-5 ATS in its L7

post-bye week games after going 9-1 ATS prior

• The Eagles are on a nice run of 4-0 SU & ATS in post-bye week divisional games, holding three of those opponents to nine points or less

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (post-bye week game: 11/12 @ Indianapolis)• Pittsburgh has lost three straight post-bye

week games and is just 1-5 ATS in its L6• The Steelers are 4-1 UNDER the total in their

L5 post-bye week games on the road

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (post-bye week game: 11/26 vs. Seattle)• While San Francisco has been on a nice roll

in pre-bye week games of late, post-bye games have been a different story, 0-4-1 SU & 0-5 ATS in the L5

• San Francisco is on a huge 13-2 OVER the total run in post-bye week games versus NFC foes

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (post-bye week game: 10/22 @ NY Giants)• The Seahawks are on a huge 13-3 OVER the

total surge in post-bye week games overall, allowing 26.2 PPG

• Seattle is on a 4-1 ATS slide in post-bye week games vs. NFC East foes

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (post-bye week game: ALREADY PLAYED in WEEK 2)• The Buccaneers are on a 9-3 ATS surge in

post-bye week games overall dating back to ‘06

• The Bucs are 5-1 ATS in their L6 post-bye week road games

• In 10 post-bye week games as an underdog since ’95, Tampa Bay has gone 8-2 ATS

TENNESSEE TITANS (post-bye week game: 11/5 vs. Baltimore)• The Titans are on a 2-5 SU & ATS slide in post-

bye week games overall• Tennessee has gone UNDER the total in

four straight post-bye week games vs. AFC opponents

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (post-bye week game: 10/15 vs. San Francisco)• Washington is just 2-7 SU & ATS in its L9 post-

bye week games• The Redskins have gone UNDER the total in

five of their L6 post-bye week games• Washington is on a 6-1 SU & ATS run as a

post-bye week favorite


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Three different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in the publication. In the chart below, you’ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The Power Ratings columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained

manually for every game throughout the season. The Effective Strength (Effective Strg) Ratings quantify a team’s performance against varied schedule strengths. Finally, the Bettors’ Ratings (Bettors’ Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team’s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors’ feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 3.0 points or more from an actual line or total.

BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?103 PHILADELPHIA 46 26.5 19.0 UNDER 20.7 104 CAROLINA -3.5 25.5 -1.6 23.8 24.2 251 CLEVELAND 45 16.0 20.6 CLE 18.1 CLE252 HOUSTON -10 24.5 -11.0 26.5 23.7 UNDER 253 NEW ENGLAND -9.5 30.0 27.9 31.7 NE254 NY JETS 47.5 20.0 7.6 20.3 18.0 255 MIAMI 47 19.5 14.1 UNDER 18.3 256 ATLANTA -11.5 28.5 -11.6 26.3 27.5 257 DETROIT 51 24.0 21.2 UNDER 24.1 258 NEW ORLEANS -4 24.0 -2.8 24.9 27.5 259 GREEN BAY -3.5 28.5 23.5 23.9 260 MINNESOTA 47 25.0 1.0 23.0 MIN 23.7 MIN 261 CHICAGO 40 19.5 17.0 17.3 262 BALTIMORE -7 23.0 -6.0 23.7 22.2 263 SAN FRANCISCO 46.5 17.5 16.8 UNDER 17.8 264 WASHINGTON -9.5 23.0 -8.4 26.2 25.9 265 LA RAMS 44 24.5 19.5 23.2 OVER266 JACKSONVILLE -3 23.0 -1.1 23.3 24.1 267 TAMPA BAY -2.5 23.0 26.0 TB 20.7 268 ARIZONA 44.5 21.0 -0.8 ARI 20.0 22.9 ARI 269 PITTSBURGH 46 26.0 19.3 21.7 270 KANSAS CITY -4 28.5 -5.1 25.4 24.3 271 LA CHARGERS 48 22.5 20.2 20.7 272 OAKLAND -5.5 26.0 -5.9 26.6 29.2 OAK 273 NY GIANTS 40 20.0 NYG 15.7 18.0 NYG274 DENVER -12 26.0 -8.8 25.1 23.0 275 INDIANAPOLIS 49 21.5 21.2 17.8 276 TENNESSEE -8.5 24.0 -10.0 29.8 32.8 TEN

NFL Strength Ratings

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NFL Matchups(103) PHILADELPHIA [SU:4-1 | ATS:3-2] AT (104) CAROLINA (-3.5 | 46) [SU:4-1 | ATS:3-1-1]

OCTOBER 12, 2017 8:25 PM on CBS - BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM (CHARLOTTE, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PHILADELPHIA 27.4 23 31-139 [4.5] 35-22-259 [7.3] 14.5 19.8 17 16-63 [3.9] 39-26-283 [7.2] 17.5 +2 +7.6 CAROLINA 21.0 20 29-99 [3.4] 30-20-229 [7.5] 15.6 18.8 17 20-80 [4.0] 34-24-194 [5.7] 14.6 -4 +2.2

CBS get an unexpected surprise by having two division leaders from the NFC for their Thursday night telecast. Coach Doug Pederson has his detractors and rightly so, yet he’s also collected a nice contingent of talent and QB Carson Wentz has accelerated Philadelphia’s improvement. Now approaching 100 percent, Cam Newton is playing back to Super Bowl level of two years ago, while taking fewer hits. Ed Dickson stepping up at TE is a massive, plus and the Carolina defense is playing to ability level. Pending the results of Green Bay and Atlanta games the winner certainly can make a claim as the best team in the NFC. The Panthers are 18-6 ATS at home versus teams averaging 375 or more yards per game.

V-TRENDS• CAROLINA is 8-2-1 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against strong teams outscoring opponents by more

than 6.0 points per game(CS)• PHILADELPHIA is 3-10-1 ATS(L5Y) - Less than 6 days rest• PHILADELPHIA is 11-2-1 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against lesser rushing teams averaging less than

3.9 yards per carry(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSPHILADELPHIA RESULTS CAROLINA RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-08 VS ARIZONA - 6 44.5 34-7 W W U 10-08 at DETROIT + 2 41.5 27-24 W W O 10-01 at LA CHARGERS + 2 47.5 26-24 W W O 10-01 at NEW ENGLAND + 8.5 48 33-30 W W O 09-24 VS NY GIANTS - 5 42 27-24 W L O 09-24 VS NEW ORLEANS - 5 46.5 13-34 L L O 09-17 at KANSAS CITY + 4 46.5 20-27 L L O 09-17 VS BUFFALO - 6 43.5 9-3 W P U 09-10 at WASHINGTON - 1 49.5 30-17 W W U 09-10 at SAN FRANCISCO - 4 44.5 23-3 W W U

(251) CLEVELAND [SU:0-5 | ATS:1-4] AT (252) HOUSTON (-10 | 45) [SU:2-3 | ATS:3-2]OCTOBER 15, 2017 1:00 PM on CBS - NRG STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CLEVELAND 15.4 21 23-89 [3.8] 39-21-231 [5.9] 20.8 24.8 19 27-77 [2.9] 31-23-228 [7.4] 12.3 -7 -9.4 HOUSTON 28.8 23 31-141 [4.5] 32-19-204 [6.5] 12.0 26.0 18 27-102 [3.7] 30-19-221 [7.5] 12.4 -1 +2.8

Cleveland had two chances to beat similar teams in Indianapolis and the New York Jets and they failed on each occasion. While we understand anything can happen, the next realistic chance for a Browns win is December against the Chargers. Though Houston suffered two horrendous defensive injuries in losing J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus for the season, the emergence of quarterback Deshawn Watson could be a season-saver. The Texans will undoubtedly have to outscore opponents from here on out and they have the firepower. With Cleveland only averaging 15.4 PPG, it becomes incumbent upon Houston to build a lead and let the Browns play catch up. Cleveland is pathetic 4-16 ATS since last year.

V-TRENDS• HOUSTON is 9-3-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 14.4 yards per

point(CS)• CLEVELAND is 2-11-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.75 yards per

carry(CS)• HOUSTON is 17-7-1 UNDER(L25G) - VS AFC-NORTH

SEASON GAME LOGSCLEVELAND RESULTS HOUSTON RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-08 VS NY JETS + 1.5 41.5 14-17 L L U 10-08 VS KANSAS CITY + 2 45 34-42 L L O 10-01 VS CINCINNATI + 3.5 41.5 7-31 L L U 10-01 VS TENNESSEE + 2.5 43.5 57-14 W W O 09-24 at INDIANAPOLIS - 1 42 28-31 L L O 09-24 at NEW ENGLAND +13 44.5 33-36 L W O 09-17 at BALTIMORE + 7.5 39.5 10-24 L L U 09-14 at CINCINNATI + 5 38.5 13-9 W W U 09-10 VS PITTSBURGH +10 47.5 18-21 L W U 09-10 VS JACKSONVILLE - 6 38 7-29 L L U

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF



15

NFL Matchups(253) NEW ENGLAND (-9.5 | 47.5) [SU:3-2 | ATS:2-3] AT (254) NY JETS [SU:3-2 | ATS:3-2]

OCTOBER 15, 2017 1:00 PM on CBS - METLIFE STADIUM (EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW ENGLAND 29.6 24 26-99 [3.9] 39-27-320 [8.2] 14.2 28.4 25 25-124 [5.0] 38-25-323 [8.6] 15.7 +2 +1.2 NY JETS 18.4 15 25-111 [4.5] 30-21-189 [6.4] 16.3 21.2 20 31-143 [4.6] 34-21-212 [6.2] 16.7 -1 -2.8

This has to be a joke right, the New York Jets are tied with New England (and Buffalo), exactly 31.2 percent thru the season. The only thing in sports that would be absurd is if Sacramento and Golden State had the same record after 26 games this upcoming season. The Jets defense is keeping them in games and quarterback Josh McCown is making enough big plays at the right time. New England might have only given up 14 points to Tampa Bay, yet still allowed over 400 yards. More often than not these battles in New Jersey are hard for the Patriots and that could well happen again. New England is battle-tested and 8-1 ATS on the road since last season.

V-TRENDS• NEW ENGLAND is 20-5 ATS(L25G) on ROAD - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than

4.5 yards per carry(CS)• NY JETS is 2-9-2 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent passing teams averaging more than 6.8 yards per

attempt(CS)• NY JETS is 11-2-1 OVER(L14G) at HOME - Against weak rushing defenses yielding more than 4.7

yards per carry(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSNEW ENGLAND RESULTS NY JETS RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-05 at TAMPA BAY - 3.5 55 19-14 W W U 10-08 at CLEVELAND - 1.5 41.5 17-14 W W U 10-01 VS CAROLINA - 8.5 48 30-33 L L O 10-01 VS JACKSONVILLE + 4 38.5 23-20 W W O 09-24 VS HOUSTON -13 44.5 36-33 W L O 09-24 VS MIAMI + 5.5 43.5 20-6 W W U 09-17 at NEW ORLEANS - 5.5 55 36-20 W W O 09-17 at OAKLAND +14 43.5 20-45 L L O 09-07 VS KANSAS CITY - 8 47.5 27-42 L L O 09-10 at BUFFALO + 7 42 12-21 L L U

(255) MIAMI [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2] AT (256) ATLANTA (-11.5 | 47) [SU:3-1 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 15, 2017 1:00 PM on CBS - MERCEDES-BENZ STADIUM (ATLANTA, GA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIAMI 10.2 15 23-75 [3.2] 33-20-156 [4.7] 22.6 16.8 19 24-75 [3.1] 34-25-234 [6.9] 18.4 -2 -6.6 ATLANTA 26.0 22 27-126 [4.7] 34-22-262 [7.8] 14.9 22.2 20 22-93 [4.2] 39-24-225 [5.8] 14.3 -4 +3.8

Though Miami beat Tennessee in their first home game of the season, Dolphins fans are seeing Jay Cutler might not the card up the sleeve they were hoping for. Cutler is first Miami quarterback ever to throw for under 100 yards with minimum 25 attempts. Next for the Fins is trip to Atlanta, who will be anxious to put error-plagued loss to Buffalo behind them and excited to do so at home off a bye week. As the Falcons returned to practice on players like Julio Jones and others were feeling “great” and are ready to go. First quarter is very important for both teams, as Falcons love to start fast and set tone, while Fins have to keep it close.

V-TRENDS• ATLANTA is 9-3 ATS(L3Y) - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.75 yards per

carry(CS)• MIAMI is 4-12 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent passing teams averaging more than 6.8 yards per

attempt(CS)• ATLANTA is 14-1 OVER(L2Y) - On non-grass field

SEASON GAME LOGSMIAMI RESULTS ATLANTA RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-08 VS TENNESSEE - 1 41.5 16-10 W W U 10-01 VS BUFFALO - 8 47.5 17-23 L L U 10-01 ** NEW ORLEANS + 4 51.5 0-20 L L U 09-24 at DETROIT - 3 50.5 30-26 W W O 09-24 at NY JETS - 5.5 43.5 6-20 L L U 09-17 VS GREEN BAY - 3 54 34-23 W W O 09-17 at LA CHARGERS + 3.5 46 19-17 W W U 09-10 at CHICAGO - 6.5 48 23-17 W L U



16



(257) DETROIT [SU:3-2 | ATS:3-2] AT (258) NEW ORLEANS (-4 | 51) [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 15, 2017 1:00 PM on FOX - MERCEDES-BENZ SUPERDOME (NEW ORLEANS, LA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DETROIT 24.6 18 25-88 [3.5] 35-22-201 [5.8] 11.7 19.4 19 23-75 [3.3] 36-23-256 [7.2] 17.1 +8 +5.2 NEW ORLEANS 23.2 20 23-94 [4.0] 38-26-276 [7.3] 15.9 19.5 20 24-109 [4.5] 33-24-265 [8.0] 19.2 +4 +3.7

The Detroit offense is best described as sporadic, ranked 29th in total yards and always seemingly scrambling in the fourth quarter when trailing. Matthew Stafford has been a bit less accurate to this juncture and had he’s faced more pressure in the pocket to go along with below average running game. The New Orleans defense have done one the quickest turnarounds, surrendering 65 points in initial two games, to 13 points in previous two outings. Reasons vary, but Saints coaches are saying “focus and having right players on the field” has flipped the switch. This is third straight meeting in New Orleans and fourth overall and the Lions are 3-0 ATS. If Saints offense scores early, they could turn the tide in their favor.

V-TRENDS• NEW ORLEANS is 11-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.75 yards per

carry(CS)• DETROIT is 5-12-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against resilient defenses allowing more than 17.15 yards per

point(CS)• NEW ORLEANS is 19-6 OVER(L25G) - More than 6 days rest

SEASON GAME LOGSDETROIT RESULTS NEW ORLEANS RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-08 VS CAROLINA - 2 41.5 24-27 L L O 10-01 ** MIAMI - 4 51.5 20-0 W W U 10-01 at MINNESOTA + 3 43.5 14-7 W W U 09-24 at CAROLINA + 5 46.5 34-13 W W O 09-24 VS ATLANTA + 3 50.5 26-30 L L O 09-17 VS NEW ENGLAND + 5.5 55 20-36 L L O 09-18 at NY GIANTS + 3 42 24-10 W W U 09-11 at MINNESOTA + 3 47.5 19-29 L L O 09-10 VS ARIZONA + 2 48.5 35-23 W W O

(259) GREEN BAY (-3.5 | 47) [SU:4-1 | ATS:3-2] AT (260) MINNESOTA [SU:3-2 | ATS:2-3]OCTOBER 15, 2017 1:00 PM on FOX - US BANK STADIUM (MINNEAPOLIS, MN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF GREEN BAY 27.4 23 22-92 [4.2] 38-25-245 [6.4] 12.3 22.4 20 28-121 [4.3] 30-20-200 [6.6] 14.3 +4 +5.0 MINNESOTA 19.8 19 28-118 [4.2] 33-22-239 [7.2] 18.0 18.6 19 24-80 [3.3] 34-22-229 [6.8] 16.6 +1 +1.2

If you watch Green Bay, understand all their injuries on offense and defense, it is miraculous they are 4-1. Yet, what can you say about Aaron Rodgers and game plans coach Mike McCarthy comes up week after week. Rodgers is also altering his reputation as a frontrunner, as he keeps bringing the Packers from behind, something that has not always been strength or entirely his fault. With Sam Bradford’s balky knee, as we saw on for now Case Keenum remains Minnesota’s best option at quarterback. Once again, coach Mike Zimmer will have to lean defense to slow Rodgers because the offense will probably not score enough to matter. Vikings have covered four of six at home against Pack.

V-TRENDS• MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 14.4 yards

per point(CS)• GREEN BAY is 6-10 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.1

yards per attempt(CS)• GREEN BAY is 17-3 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than

5.6 yards per play(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSGREEN BAY RESULTS MINNESOTA RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-08 at DALLAS + 2.5 52 35-31 W W O 10-09 at CHICAGO - 3.5 41 20-17 W L U 09-28 VS CHICAGO - 7 44.5 35-14 W W O 10-01 VS DETROIT - 3 43.5 7-14 L L U 09-24 VS CINCINNATI - 7 48 27-24 W L O 09-24 VS TAMPA BAY - 1 41 34-17 W W O 09-17 at ATLANTA + 3 54 23-34 L L O 09-17 at PITTSBURGH + 8 43.5 9-26 L L U 09-10 VS SEATTLE - 2.5 50 17-9 W W U 09-11 VS NEW ORLEANS - 3 47.5 29-19 W W O


NFL Matchups



17

(261) CHICAGO [SU:1-4 | ATS:3-2] AT (262) BALTIMORE (-7 | 40) [SU:3-2 | ATS:3-2]OCTOBER 15, 2017 1:00 PM on FOX - M&T BANK STADIUM (BALTIMORE, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CHICAGO 15.6 19 26-117 [4.4] 33-21-183 [5.5] 19.2 24.8 19 26-100 [3.9] 32-20-205 [6.4] 12.3 -9 -9.2 BALTIMORE 18.0 18 31-130 [4.3] 31-20-158 [5.2] 16.0 19.4 19 29-123 [4.3] 32-17-205 [6.3] 16.9 +3 -1.4

Joe Flacco turned down the volume on detractors with efficient performance as Baltimore enjoyed surprisingly easy win at Oakland. The defense bottled up the Raiders offense and ran the ball very effectively. With Pittsburgh dealing with problems of their own, the Ravens can start building a little momentum with the Chicago on the road on a short week. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS hosting the Bears. The Mitchell Trubisky era ended up at least for one game looking like how Cutler played with key interception that cost them game. Chicago was at least competitive and to have any chance of beating Baltimore, averaging three turnovers like they have in past four games will all but certain lead to defeat.

V-TRENDS• BALTIMORE is 19-6 ATS(L25G) at HOME - Against unopportunistic offenses averaging more than

17.75 yards per point(CS)• CHICAGO is 4-8 ATS(L5Y) - Less than 6 days rest• BALTIMORE is 10-1 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 16.6

yards per point(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSCHICAGO RESULTS BALTIMORE RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-09 VS MINNESOTA + 3.5 41 17-20 L W U 10-08 at OAKLAND + 3 40.5 30-17 W W O 09-28 at GREEN BAY + 7 44.5 14-35 L L O 10-01 VS PITTSBURGH + 3.5 42 9-26 L L U 09-24 VS PITTSBURGH + 7 43.5 23-17 W W U 09-24 ** JACKSONVILLE - 3 38 7-44 L L O 09-17 at TAMPA BAY + 7 44 7-29 L L U 09-17 VS CLEVELAND - 7.5 39.5 24-10 W W U 09-10 VS ATLANTA + 6.5 48 17-23 L W U 09-10 at CINCINNATI + 2.5 41.5 20-0 W W U

(263) SAN FRANCISCO [SU:0-5 | ATS:3-2] AT (264) WASHINGTON (-9.5 | 46.5) [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 15, 2017 1:00 PM on FOX - FEDEX FIELD (LANDOVER, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SAN FRANCISCO 17.8 18 23-97 [4.2] 39-23-222 [5.7] 17.9 24.0 23 33-117 [3.6] 35-23-250 [7.1] 15.3 0 -6.2 WASHINGTON 22.8 17 29-130 [4.5] 30-20-233 [7.7] 15.9 22.2 17 22-89 [3.9] 33-22-222 [6.7] 14.0 0 +0.6

The old expression “Close but no cigar” is on point about San Francisco. The 49ers are 0-5 and in their past four defeats, they have lost by 11 total points, including two in OT. New coach Kyle Shanahan has his squad playing hard and never quitting, yet at some juncture that has to mean finding a ‘W’ to make the effort seem worthwhile. If Kirk Cousins and offense keep getting better and so does the defense, Washington will be a real threat in the NFC East, with the Giants done and Dallas scuffling. With Philly on deck for a second time next week, the Redskins cannot take this one for granted and the Niners are proving they are tough out.

V-TRENDS• SAN FRANCISCO is 8-3 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - VS OPP with more than 6 days rest• WASHINGTON is 2-11 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - More than 6 days rest• SAN FRANCISCO is 9-3 OVER(L3Y) - 1000 or more travel miles

SEASON GAME LOGSSAN FRANCISCO RESULTS WASHINGTON RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-08 at INDIANAPOLIS + 1 44 23-26 L L O 10-02 at KANSAS CITY + 7 48 20-29 L L O 10-01 at ARIZONA + 6.5 43 15-18 L W U 09-24 VS OAKLAND + 3 54 27-10 W W U 09-21 VS LA RAMS + 3 40 39-41 L W O 09-17 at LA RAMS + 3 47 27-20 W W P 09-17 at SEATTLE +13.5 41 9-12 L W U 09-10 VS PHILADELPHIA + 1 49.5 17-30 L L U 09-10 VS CAROLINA + 4 44.5 3-23 L L U


NFL Matchups


18



(265) LA RAMS [SU:3-2 | ATS:2-3] AT (266) JACKSONVILLE (-3 | 44) [SU:3-2 | ATS:3-2]OCTOBER 15, 2017 4:05 PM on FOX - EVERBANK FIELD (JACKSONVILLE, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LA RAMS 30.4 21 28-111 [4.0] 33-20-271 [8.2] 12.6 24.2 19 30-134 [4.5] 32-19-209 [6.6] 14.2 -1 +6.2 JACKSONVILLE 27.8 20 35-165 [4.7] 27-15-160 [5.8] 11.7 16.6 19 27-146 [5.4] 35-21-178 [5.0] 19.5 +10 +11.2

The Rams had numerous chances to knockoff Seattle, but in the end failed, in spite of +134 yards advantage. Costly turnovers and just not quite making connections did them in. To avoid consecutive losses, L.A. needs to feed Todd Gurley and Sammy Watkins, its two best weapons, which opens up the rest for QB Jared Goff to take advantage of. The Jacksonville decision to be reliant on the running game and less so on Blake Bortles might result in the Jaguars winning the AFC South. The Jags offensive line and Leonard Fournette in particular, has made them the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. Potentially fascinating matchup of teams on the rise, however, the Rams are 0-6 ATS after -2 or greater turnover differential.

V-TRENDS• LA RAMS is 7-4 ATS(L5Y) - Against lesser passing teams averaging less than 6.0 yards per

attempt(CS)• JACKSONVILLE is 2-14 ATS(L5Y) - Non-conference games• LA RAMS is 10-2 UNDER(L5Y) - Against dominant teams outscoring opponents by more than 8.0

points per game(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSLA RAMS RESULTS JACKSONVILLE RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-08 VS SEATTLE - 2 46.5 10-16 L L U 10-08 at PITTSBURGH + 7 41 30-9 W W U 10-01 at DALLAS + 5 50.5 35-30 W W O 10-01 at NY JETS - 4 38.5 20-23 L L O 09-21 at SAN FRANCISCO - 3 40 41-39 W L O 09-24 ** BALTIMORE + 3 38 44-7 W W O 09-17 VS WASHINGTON - 3 47 20-27 L L P 09-17 VS TENNESSEE + 1 41.5 16-37 L L O 09-10 VS INDIANAPOLIS - 3.5 41.5 46-9 W W O 09-10 at HOUSTON + 6 38 29-7 W W U

(267) TAMPA BAY (-2.5 | 44.5) [SU:2-2 | ATS:1-3] AT (268) ARIZONA [SU:2-3 | ATS:0-5]OCTOBER 15, 2017 4:05 PM on FOX - UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM (GLENDALE, AZ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TAMPA BAY 21.2 22 21-86 [4.0] 39-23-288 [7.4] 17.6 20.8 23 26-87 [3.4] 42-29-309 [7.4] 19.0 +2 +0.4 ARIZONA 16.2 21 20-52 [2.6] 45-27-289 [6.4] 21.0 25.0 18 28-95 [3.3] 35-21-231 [6.6] 13.0 -3 -8.8

Tampa Bay was kicking itself, literally after loss to New England and on Monday officially changed kickers, again. The Buccaneers moved the ball on the Patriots, but will need to take more shots down the field against Arizona to come away with a win. Having RB Doug Martin back is a real plus and the Bucs defensive line should have big game in the desert. The Cardinals offensive line has suffered injuries, yet it is hardly the only one and it could be called the worst in the NFL today without much argument. With no running back built to help and Carson Palmer immobile in the pocket, defenses are fearless to rush five or more. The Cards are 6-15 ATS since last season.

V-TRENDS• ARIZONA is 9-2 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against inept passing defenses yielding more than 7.25 yards

per attempt(CS)• TAMPA BAY is 4-15 ATS(L19G) on ROAD - Against stout rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6

yards per(CS)• ARIZONA is 9-2 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.75

yards per carry(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSTAMPA BAY RESULTS ARIZONA RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-05 VS NEW ENGLAND + 3.5 55 14-19 L L U 10-08 at PHILADELPHIA + 6 44.5 7-34 L L U 10-01 VS NY GIANTS - 2.5 46 25-23 W L O 10-01 VS SAN FRANCISCO - 6.5 43 18-15 W L U 09-24 at MINNESOTA + 1 41 17-34 L L O 09-25 VS DALLAS + 3 46.5 17-28 L L U 09-17 VS CHICAGO - 7 44 29-7 W W U 09-17 at INDIANAPOLIS - 6.5 44 16-13 W L U 09-10 at DETROIT - 2 48.5 23-35 L L O



NFL Matchups


19

(269) PITTSBURGH [SU:3-2 | ATS:2-3] AT (270) KANSAS CITY (-4 | 46) [SU:5-0 | ATS:5-0]OCTOBER 15, 2017 4:25 PM on CBS - ARROWHEAD STADIUM (KANSAS CITY, MO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PITTSBURGH 19.8 20 26-90 [3.5] 39-24-242 [6.2] 16.8 17.8 17 27-137 [5.1] 31-19-140 [4.6] 15.6 -1 +2.0 KANSAS CITY 32.8 23 27-156 [5.7] 32-24-258 [8.2] 12.6 22.2 22 25-118 [4.6] 35-18-248 [7.0] 16.5 +6 +10.6

Has Ben Roethlisberger lost his lust for football? That is question floating around the Steel City and if so, that coupled with deteriorating skill, this could transfer Pittsburgh into running team despite obvious perimeter weaponry. It is not all Big Ben, as the both lines have been inaccordant and if they are not mentally sharp, Kansas City will drop them to 16-6 ATS after allowing 30+ points. Andy Reid might not have won a Super Bowl, but if you watch the Chiefs game plans in the first half, they are spectacular in probing weaknesses and getting the ball to the right player at the right time. Look for K.C. to run wide on Steelers defense and follow that up with underneath passes.

V-TRENDS• PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4

yards per carry(CS)• KANSAS CITY is 7-17-1 ATS(L25G) at HOME - Against lesser rushing teams averaging less than 3.9

yards per carry(CS)• PITTSBURGH is 12-1 UNDER(L3Y) on ROAD - On grass field

SEASON GAME LOGSPITTSBURGH RESULTS KANSAS CITY RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-08 VS JACKSONVILLE - 7 41 9-30 L L U 10-08 at HOUSTON - 2 45 42-34 W W O 10-01 at BALTIMORE - 3.5 42 26-9 W W U 10-02 VS WASHINGTON - 7 48 29-20 W W O 09-24 at CHICAGO - 7 43.5 17-23 L L U 09-24 at LA CHARGERS - 3 47.5 24-10 W W U 09-17 VS MINNESOTA - 8 43.5 26-9 W W U 09-17 VS PHILADELPHIA - 4 46.5 27-20 W W O 09-10 at CLEVELAND -10 47.5 21-18 W L U 09-07 at NEW ENGLAND + 8 47.5 42-27 W W O

(271) LA CHARGERS [SU:1-4 | ATS:1-3-1] AT (272) OAKLAND (-5.5 | 48) [SU:2-3 | ATS:2-3]OCTOBER 15, 2017 4:25 PM on CBS - OAKLAND COLISEUM (OAKLAND, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LA CHARGERS 19.8 21 21-79 [3.8] 39-23-267 [6.9] 17.5 23.0 21 32-161 [5.0] 30-19-190 [6.3] 15.3 -2 -3.2 OAKLAND 21.6 15 22-91 [4.2] 30-20-189 [6.2] 13.0 21.8 18 30-125 [4.1] 29-20-227 [7.7] 16.1 -1 -0.2

So much for unstoppable Oakland offense. Even with David Carr playing seven of the previous 12 quarters, the Raiders offense has 37 points. The offensive line is not blocking and if opposing teams send one extra pass-rusher, that play is all but over. A shaky Oakland defense that needs to play with a lead is fully exposed, even against as bad an offense as the Baltimore brought in. Not a good spot for Oakland either with confidence shaken and 7-18 ATS record with the Chargers in town. The team from Carson took advantage of gift presented to them in New Jersey and got first win of the year. Nothing would please the Bolts more than to add to Raiders woes.

V-TRENDS• LA CHARGERS is 8-3-1 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - On grass field• OAKLAND is 3-13 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - OU line of 45 or more• OAKLAND is 13-3-1 OVER(L3Y) at HOME - All Games

SEASON GAME LOGSLA CHARGERS RESULTS OAKLAND RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-08 at NY GIANTS + 3 45 27-22 W W O 10-08 VS BALTIMORE - 3 40.5 17-30 L L O 10-01 VS PHILADELPHIA - 2 47.5 24-26 L L O 10-01 at DENVER + 3.5 44 10-16 L L U 09-24 VS KANSAS CITY + 3 47.5 10-24 L L U 09-24 at WASHINGTON - 3 54 10-27 L L U 09-17 VS MIAMI - 3.5 46 17-19 L L U 09-17 VS NY JETS -14 43.5 45-20 W W O 09-11 at DENVER + 3 42 21-24 L P O 09-10 at TENNESSEE + 3 50.5 26-16 W W U


NFL Matchups



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NFL Matchups(273) NY GIANTS [SU:0-5 | ATS:2-3] AT (274) DENVER (-12 | 40) [SU:3-1 | ATS:2-1-1]

OCTOBER 15, 2017 8:30 PM on NBC - SPORTS AUTHORITY FIELD AT MILE HIGH (DENVER, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NY GIANTS 16.4 18 20-78 [3.9] 40-27-249 [6.2] 19.9 24.4 20 31-139 [4.5] 35-21-225 [6.5] 14.9 -3 -8.0 DENVER 24.5 21 32-143 [4.4] 31-20-198 [6.3] 13.9 18.5 15 21-51 [2.4] 36-23-210 [5.8] 14.1 -2 +6.0

Giants fan in bar Monday night, “We have no running game, no offensive line and now no receivers to throw to. And we play the Denver defense? What time is Shark Tank on again Sunday night?” The G-Men are 0-5 and 2016 looks like a mirage. Last year the Giants won with defense and big plays, now they have neither and the situation will not improve. Denver comes off a bye and is already playing a fourth home game this campaign. This would seem ideal time for the Broncos to get Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders more involved in the passing offense while still running effectively. Denver is 18-5 ATS with two weeks preparation.

V-TRENDS• DENVER is 11-4 ATS(L5Y) - Against mediocre teams being outscored by opponents by more

than 4.0 points per game(CS)• NY GIANTS is 3-9-3 ATS(L5Y) - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.75 yards per

carry(CS)• DENVER is 14-3 OVER(L17G) - VS NFC-EAST

SEASON GAME LOGSNY GIANTS RESULTS DENVER RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-08 VS LA CHARGERS - 3 45 22-27 L L O 10-01 VS OAKLAND - 3.5 44 16-10 W W U 10-01 at TAMPA BAY + 2.5 46 23-25 L W O 09-24 at BUFFALO - 3 40 16-26 L L O 09-24 at PHILADELPHIA + 5 42 24-27 L W O 09-17 VS DALLAS + 2.5 43.5 42-17 W W O 09-18 VS DETROIT - 3 42 10-24 L L U 09-11 VS LA CHARGERS - 3 42 24-21 W P O 09-10 at DALLAS + 6 46 3-19 L L U

(275) INDIANAPOLIS [SU:2-3 | ATS:3-2] AT (276) TENNESSEE (-8.5 | 49) [SU:2-3 | ATS:2-3]OCTOBER 16, 2017 8:30 PM on ESPN - NISSAN STADIUM (NASHVILLE, TN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF INDIANAPOLIS 19.4 17 30-100 [3.4] 29-17-202 [7.0] 15.6 31.8 21 27-103 [3.9] 37-23-294 [7.9] 12.5 -1 -12.4TENNESSEE 22.0 17 26-125 [4.8] 30-18-184 [6.0] 14.0 28.4 22 30-110 [3.7] 35-22-235 [6.7] 12.1 -2 -6.4

At 2-3, this is not where these division rivals expected to be in the middle of October. Indianapolis thought Andrew Luck would have been back by now and he’s already been ruled out for this matchup. At least the Colts have beaten two teams they should have in Cleveland and San Francisco and they are 9-1-1 ATS versus Tennessee. The Titans are much more disappointing, with Marcus Mariota hurt again (expected back for this game) and running game that should be hot all the time, yet runs cold far too often. Though Mariota is not thought of as top shelf signal caller, his importance to Tennessee cannot be overstated to get them in right plays, make confident decisions and be their leader.

V-TRENDS• INDIANAPOLIS is 16-2 ATS(L5Y) - Against weak teams being outscored by opponents by more

than 6.0 points per game(CS)• TENNESSEE is 1-10-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against anemic teams being outscored by opponents by more

than 8.0 points per game(CS)• INDIANAPOLIS is 12-1 OVER(L3Y) - On grass field

SEASON GAME LOGSINDIANAPOLIS RESULTS TENNESSEE RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-08 VS SAN FRANCISCO - 1 44 26-23 W W O 10-08 at MIAMI + 1 41.5 10-16 L L U 10-01 at SEATTLE +12 42 18-46 L L O 10-01 at HOUSTON - 2.5 43.5 14-57 L L O 09-24 VS CLEVELAND + 1 42 31-28 W W O 09-24 VS SEATTLE - 2.5 41.5 33-27 W W O 09-17 VS ARIZONA + 6.5 44 13-16 L W U 09-17 at JACKSONVILLE - 1 41.5 37-16 W W O 09-10 at LA RAMS + 3.5 41.5 9-46 L L O 09-10 VS OAKLAND - 3 50.5 16-26 L L U




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NFLTopWeekly TrendsTEAMS TO PLAY ON TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST

41.6% ROI

20.4% ROI

24.2% ROI

33.8% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY OVER

59.3% ROI

34.8% ROI

33.8% ROI

14.7% ROI

54.6% ROI

26.5% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY UNDER

52.7% ROI

20.0% ROI

(261) CHICAGO AT (262) BALTIMOREBALTIMORE is 23-8 ATS(L31G) at HOME - Against unopportunistic offenses averaging more than 17.75 yards per point(CS)( $1420 Profit with a 41.6% ROI )

(269) PITTSBURGH AT (270) KANSAS CITYPITTSBURGH is 31-18-1 ATS(L50G) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.6 yards per play(CS)( $1120 Profit with a 20.4% ROI )

(267) TAMPA BAY AT (268) ARIZONAARIZONA is 32-17-1 ATS(L50G) at HOME - As underdog( $1330 Profit with a 24.2% ROI )

(103) PHILADELPHIA AT (104) CAROLINACAROLINA is 17-7-1 OVER(L25G) - Against prolific-scoring teams averaging 27 PPG or more(CS)( $930 Profit with a 33.8% ROI )

(255) MIAMI AT (256) ATLANTAATLANTA is 17-3-1 OVER(L2Y) - OU line of 45 or more( $1370 Profit with a 59.3% ROI )

(257) DETROIT AT (258) NEW ORLEANSNEW ORLEANS is 24-10 OVER(L34G) - VS NFC-NORTH( $1300 Profit with a 34.8% ROI )

(265) LA RAMS AT (266) JACKSONVILLEJACKSONVILLE is 7-17-1 ATS(L25G) at HOME - In October( $930 Profit with a 33.8% ROI )

(269) PITTSBURGH AT (270) KANSAS CITYKANSAS CITY is 19-29-2 ATS(L50G) at HOME - as favorite of 7 or less points( $810 Profit with a 14.7% ROI )

(263) SAN FRANCISCO AT (264) WASHINGTONWASHINGTON is 4-17 ATS(L5Y) - More than 6 days rest( $1260 Profit with a 54.6% ROI )

(251) CLEVELAND AT (252) HOUSTONHOUSTON is 22-11-1 UNDER(L34G) - VS AFC-NORTH( $990 Profit with a 26.5% ROI )

(269) PITTSBURGH AT (270) KANSAS CITYKANSAS CITY is 20-5 UNDER(L25G) - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per carry(CS)( $1450 Profit with a 52.7% ROI )

(267) TAMPA BAY AT (268) ARIZONATAMPA BAY is 22-13 UNDER(L35G) - VS NFC-WEST( $770 Profit with a 20.0% ROI )

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Top NFL Head to Head Trends(103) PHILADELPHIA at (104) CAROLINA• FAVORITES are on a 4-0 SU & ATS run in the PHI-CAR h2h series

(251) CLEVELAND at (252) HOUSTON• HOUSTON has gone 5-1 SU & ATS vs. Cleveland since 2005• UNDER the total is 6-0-1 in L7 of the CLE-HOU h2h series

(253) NEW ENGLAND at (254) NY JETS• The JETS are 2-2 SU but 4-0 ATS in their L4 hosting New England

(255) MIAMI at (256) ATLANTA• FAVORITES are on a 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS run in the MIA-ATL h2h series

(257) DETROIT at (258) NEW ORLEANS• ROAD UNDERDOGS have won three straight ATS in DET-NO series

(259) GREEN BAY at (260) MINNESOTA• UNDERDOGS are 4-1 ATS in the L5 of the GB-MIN series

(261) CHICAGO at (262) BALTIMORE• Four of the L5 games between Baltimore and Chicago went UNDER the total

(263) SAN FRANCISCO at (264) WASHINGTON• ROAD TEAMS are 7-3-2 ATS in L12 of the SF-WAS h2h series

(265) LA RAMS at (266) JACKSONVILLE• RAMS are a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS vs. Jacksonville, avg MOV 5.8 PPG

(267) TAMPA BAY at (268) ARIZONA• Seven of L9 in the TB-ARI h2h series went UNDER the total

(269) PITTSBURGH at (270) KANSAS CITY• HOME TEAMS are on a 7-2 ATS run in PIT-KC h2h series

(271) LA CHARGERS at (272) OAKLAND• ROAD TEAMS are on a 5-game ATS winning streak in LAC-OAK series

(273) NY GIANTS at (274) DENVER• DENVER is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS vs. NY Giants since 2001

(275) INDIANAPOLIS at (276) TENNESSEE• INDIANAPOLIS has gone 10-1 SU & 9-1-1 ATS in L11 games vs. Tennessee8

(103) PHILADELPHIA AT (104) CAROLINAGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS2015-10-25 PHILADELPHIA (16) at CAROLINA (27) -3 46.0 CAROLINA HOME FAV UNDER 2014-11-10 CAROLINA (21) at PHILADELPHIA (45) -7.5 48.5 PHILADELPHIA HOME FAV OVER 2012-11-26 CAROLINA (30) at PHILADELPHIA (22) +3 41.5 CAROLINA ROAD FAV OVER 2009-09-13 PHILADELPHIA (38) at CAROLINA (10) +2.5 43.5 PHILADELPHIA ROAD FAV OVER 2006-12-04 CAROLINA (24) at PHILADELPHIA (27) +3 37.5 PHILADELPHIA HOME DOG OVER

(251) CLEVELAND AT (252) HOUSTONGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS2014-11-16 HOUSTON (23) at CLEVELAND (7) -4 41.5 HOUSTON ROAD DOG UNDER 2011-11-06 CLEVELAND (12) at HOUSTON (30) -10.5 42.0 HOUSTON HOME FAV xxxx 2008-11-23 HOUSTON (16) at CLEVELAND (6) -3 50.0 HOUSTON ROAD DOG UNDER 2007-11-25 HOUSTON (17) at CLEVELAND (27) -3 51.5 CLEVELAND HOME FAV UNDER 2006-12-31 CLEVELAND (6) at HOUSTON (14) -6 37.5 HOUSTON HOME FAV UNDER

(253) NEW ENGLAND AT (254) NY JETSGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS2016-12-24 NY JETS (3) at NEW ENGLAND (41) -17 45.0 NEW ENGLAND HOME FAV UNDER 2016-11-27 NEW ENGLAND (22) at NY JETS (17) +9 48.0 NY JETS HOME DOG UNDER 2015-12-27 NEW ENGLAND (20) at NY JETS (26) +2.5 45.5 NY JETS HOME DOG OVER 2015-10-25 NY JETS (23) at NEW ENGLAND (30) -7 47.0 x x x x x xxxx xxx OVER 2014-12-21 NEW ENGLAND (17) at NY JETS (16) +9.5 47.0 NY JETS HOME DOG UNDER

Recent NFL Head to Head History


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Recent NFL Head to Head History(255) MIAMI AT (256) ATLANTAGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS2013-09-22 ATLANTA (23) at MIAMI (27) -3 45.0 MIAMI HOME FAV OVER 2009-09-13 MIAMI (7) at ATLANTA (19) -4 44.0 ATLANTA HOME FAV UNDER 2005-11-06 ATLANTA (17) at MIAMI (10) +2 40.5 ATLANTA ROAD FAV UNDER 2001-12-30 ATLANTA (14) at MIAMI (21) -7 38.5 x x x x x xxxx xxx UNDER 1998-12-27 MIAMI (16) at ATLANTA (38) -3 41.0 ATLANTA HOME FAV OVER

(257) DETROIT AT (258) NEW ORLEANSGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS2016-12-04 DETROIT (28) at NEW ORLEANS (13) -6 53.5 DETROIT ROAD DOG UNDER 2015-12-21 DETROIT (35) at NEW ORLEANS (27) -2.5 52.0 DETROIT ROAD DOG OVER 2014-10-19 NEW ORLEANS (23) at DETROIT (24) -2 46.5 NEW ORLEANS ROAD DOG OVER 2012-01-07 DETROIT (28) at NEW ORLEANS (45) -10.5 59.5 NEW ORLEANS HOME FAV OVER 2011-12-04 DETROIT (17) at NEW ORLEANS (31) -8 55.5 NEW ORLEANS HOME FAV UNDER

(259) GREEN BAY AT (260) MINNESOTAGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS2016-12-24 MINNESOTA (25) at GREEN BAY (38) -6 44.5 GREEN BAY HOME FAV OVER 2016-09-18 GREEN BAY (14) at MINNESOTA (17) +1 42.5 MINNESOTA HOME DOG UNDER 2016-01-03 MINNESOTA (20) at GREEN BAY (13) -3 43.5 MINNESOTA ROAD DOG UNDER 2015-11-22 GREEN BAY (30) at MINNESOTA (13) -1 45.0 GREEN BAY ROAD DOG UNDER 2014-11-23 GREEN BAY (24) at MINNESOTA (21) +7 49.5 MINNESOTA HOME DOG UNDER

(261) CHICAGO AT (262) BALTIMOREGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS2013-11-17 BALTIMORE (20) at CHICAGO (23) -3.5 41.0 BALTIMORE ROAD DOG OVER 2009-12-20 CHICAGO (7) at BALTIMORE (31) -10.5 39.5 BALTIMORE HOME FAV UNDER 2005-10-23 BALTIMORE (6) at CHICAGO (10) -2 30.5 CHICAGO HOME FAV UNDER 2001-09-09 CHICAGO (6) at BALTIMORE (17) -9.5 33.5 BALTIMORE HOME FAV UNDER 1998-12-20 BALTIMORE (3) at CHICAGO (24) +1 37.0 CHICAGO HOME DOG UNDER

(263) SAN FRANCISCO AT (264) WASHINGTONGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS2014-11-23 WASHINGTON (13) at SAN FRANCISCO (17) -9 44.0 WASHINGTON ROAD DOG UNDER 2013-11-25 SAN FRANCISCO (27) at WASHINGTON (6) +5.5 45.0 SAN FRANCISCO ROAD FAV UNDER 2011-11-06 SAN FRANCISCO (19) at WASHINGTON (11) +4.5 37.5 SAN FRANCISCO ROAD FAV UNDER 2008-12-28 WASHINGTON (24) at SAN FRANCISCO (27) -3 37.0 x x x x x xxxx xxx OVER 2005-10-23 SAN FRANCISCO (17) at WASHINGTON (52) -13.5 36.5 WASHINGTON HOME FAV OVER

(265) LA RAMS AT (266) JACKSONVILLEGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS2013-10-06 JACKSONVILLE (20) at ST LOUIS (34) -11 41.0 ST LOUIS HOME FAV OVER 2009-10-18 ST LOUIS (20) at JACKSONVILLE (23) -9.5 42.0 ST LOUIS ROAD DOG OVER 2005-10-30 JACKSONVILLE (21) at ST LOUIS (24) +5.5 40.5 ST LOUIS HOME DOG OVER 1996-10-20 JACKSONVILLE (14) at ST LOUIS (17) +1.5 40.0 ST LOUIS HOME DOG UNDER

(267) TAMPA BAY AT (268) ARIZONAGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS2016-09-18 TAMPA BAY (7) at ARIZONA (40) -7 49.5 ARIZONA HOME FAV UNDER 2013-09-29 ARIZONA (13) at TAMPA BAY (10) -2.5 40.0 ARIZONA ROAD DOG UNDER 2010-10-31 TAMPA BAY (38) at ARIZONA (35) -3 38.0 TAMPA BAY ROAD DOG OVER 2007-11-04 ARIZONA (10) at TAMPA BAY (17) -3 38.5 TAMPA BAY HOME FAV UNDER 2005-01-02 TAMPA BAY (7) at ARIZONA (12) -4 38.0 ARIZONA HOME FAV UNDER

(269) PITTSBURGH AT (270) KANSAS CITYGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS2017-01-15 PITTSBURGH (18) at KANSAS CITY (16) -2.5 45.0 PITTSBURGH ROAD DOG UNDER 2016-10-02 KANSAS CITY (14) at PITTSBURGH (43) -3.5 48.5 PITTSBURGH HOME FAV OVER 2015-10-25 PITTSBURGH (13) at KANSAS CITY (23) -3 41.5 KANSAS CITY HOME FAV UNDER 2014-12-21 KANSAS CITY (12) at PITTSBURGH (20) -2.5 49.5 PITTSBURGH HOME FAV UNDER 2012-11-12 KANSAS CITY (13) at PITTSBURGH (16) -12 39.0 KANSAS CITY ROAD DOG UNDER

(271) LA CHARGERS AT (272) OAKLANDGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS2016-12-18 OAKLAND (19) at SAN DIEGO (16) +2.5 50.0 OAKLAND ROAD FAV UNDER 2016-10-09 SAN DIEGO (31) at OAKLAND (34) -4 50.5 SAN DIEGO ROAD DOG OVER 2015-12-24 SAN DIEGO (20) at OAKLAND (23) -4 45.0 SAN DIEGO ROAD DOG UNDER 2015-10-25 OAKLAND (37) at SAN DIEGO (29) -3 48.0 OAKLAND ROAD DOG OVER 2014-11-16 OAKLAND (6) at SAN DIEGO (13) -10 45.5 OAKLAND ROAD DOG UNDER

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Recent NFL Head to Head History(273) NY GIANTS AT (274) DENVERGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS2013-09-15 DENVER (41) at NY GIANTS (23) +3.5 52.5 DENVER ROAD FAV OVER 2009-11-26 NY GIANTS (6) at DENVER (26) +4.5 43.5 DENVER HOME DOG UNDER 2005-10-23 DENVER (23) at NY GIANTS (24) -2.5 46.5 DENVER ROAD DOG OVER 2001-09-10 NY GIANTS (20) at DENVER (31) -7 44.0 DENVER HOME FAV OVER 1998-12-13 DENVER (16) at NY GIANTS (20) +13 44.5 NY GIANTS HOME DOG UNDER

(275) INDIANAPOLIS AT (276) TENNESSEEGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS2016-11-20 TENNESSEE (17) at INDIANAPOLIS (24) -3 53.5 INDIANAPOLIS HOME FAV UNDER 2016-10-23 INDIANAPOLIS (34) at TENNESSEE (26) -4 48.5 INDIANAPOLIS ROAD DOG OVER 2016-01-03 TENNESSEE (24) at INDIANAPOLIS (30) -3.5 39.0 INDIANAPOLIS HOME FAV OVER 2015-09-27 INDIANAPOLIS (35) at TENNESSEE (33) +3 46.5 TENNESSEE HOME DOG OVER 2014-12-28 INDIANAPOLIS (27) at TENNESSEE (10) +7 46.0 INDIANAPOLIS ROAD FAV UNDER

The Dangers of Getting Cute with NFL Favorites of-5 to -6.5

by Jeff Fogle

There’s a joke in the world of Texas Hold-em poker that you longtime gamblers may have heard before. “There are only three ways to play pocket jacks…and they’re all WRONG!” If you’re dealt pocket jacks…that’s a very strong starting hand. You obviously can’t FOLD them. But if you limp in with a CALL, you’re allowing too many lesser hands to limp in too and chase you down. If you RAISE, you force all of those weaker hands to fold…but all that’s left are hands that either dominate or compete well against pocket jacks (a higher pocket pair, or virtual coin flips with A-K, A-K, A-Q, and K-Q).

There’s a similar phenomenon with how the general public handles NFL point spreads in the range from -5 to -6.5 each week. • Their first instinct is to bet the favorite…because the public always wants to bet favorites! The

game is still below the key number of seven…and it’s not hard to imagine that a medium favorite like that can win by at least seven.

• Their second instinct is to put the favorite in a moneyline parlay where all they have to do is win the game. That seems easy. As long as that favorite wins the game…which they’re “supposed to” because they’re the favorite, this leg of your parlay seems safe.

• Their other instinct is to use that favorite in six-point teasers. Again, all they have to do is win the game and you’re safe. You move from -6 down to pick -em, or -5 to plus 1. Heck, it might feel like you won’t even need those points.

Three ways to play favorites of -5 to -6.5, and they’re all wrong. Let’s take a quick look at how that range has performed so far this season in the NFL. We’ll go in schedule order, starting with Week 1. Houston -5.5 lost to Jacksonville 29-7 (outright loser)Carolina -5 won at San Francisco 23-3Cincinnati -6 lost to Houston 13-9 (outright loser)Carolina -6.5 beat Buffalo 9-3 (non-cover)New England -5.5 beat New Orleans 36-20Arizona -6.5 beat Indianapolis 16-13 in overtime (non-cover)Miami -6 lost at the NY Jets 20-6 (outright loser)Carolina -5 lost to New Orleans 34-13 (outright loser)Philadelphia -5 beat the NY Giants 27-24 (non-cover)Dallas -5 lost to the LA Rams 35-30 (outright loser)Arizona -6.5 beat San Francisco 18-15 in overtime (non-cover)Kansas City -6.5 beat Washington 29-20Philadelphia -6.5 beat Arizona 34-7 If you were just betting the favorites at those point spreads, you went 4-9 ATS…with the only covers coming from Carolina, New England, the Chiefs in that miracle Monday-nighter, and then Philadelphia this past Sunday in a rare blowout that was never in doubt.


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Those favorites only went a fortunate 8-5 straight up…with two overtime games and a last-second 61-yard field goal for the Eagles that broke a tie against the Giants. The 13 samples could have gone only 5-8 straight up! But even 8-5 is a money loser (pure moneyline price is around -270). The “vig” in moneyline parlays is that you have to SWEEP all the teams involved. This group caused parlays to fail immediately in five of the 13 cases…and you’d have to assume that the other legs lost often enough to damage bankrolls. Same thing for teasers. Five immediate losers, which means you only win money if all the other legs were perfect. Casual fans (and too many experienced fans) underestimate upset potential in this price range. It’s actually a very vulnerable price range, particularly early in the season when the market is still overestimating some teams (like Arizona as a favorite, Cincinnati, and Dallas) while underestimating others (like the Rams and Jets). It’s easier to talk yourself out of getting cute with favorites from -5 to -6.5 if you remember the following: • The sharps deserve your respect because they make their living betting sports.• The sharps DIDN’T bet these favorites even though the point spreads were just below a key

number. If the favorites were smart bets…those lines would have been driven up to at least -7 by the most informed market influences…and then locked in.

Why are favorites in this range vulnerable? Among the reasons… • Parity looms larger here than the public realizes.• Each turnover is worth about 4 points in terms of game impact, so even a ratio of just -1 in

turnover differential against the favorite makes the game a toss-up. If the game is “properly” priced, the randomness of turnovers can create coin flips for props that aren’t designed to provide value in coin flips.

Keep this in mind as the rest of the NFL season progresses. If you’re thinking of betting a favorite in this range straight up…you’re investing in a team the sharps don’t want. If you’re aiming to use them in moneyline parlays or two-team teasers because “all they have to do is win the game straight up,” these teams fail to do that more often than you realize. Don’t let Philadelphia’s rout of Arizona trick you into thinking that size favorite is automatic!

Jeff Fogle writes the VSiN City newsletter Monday-Friday. You can sign up at www.vsin.com/newsletter. It is free and has a lot of great information and betting advice . . . like you just read.

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(Follow the Money replay from Noon-3 p.m. ET)

The Edge (3-6 p.m. ET): Matt Youmans and Jonathan Von Tobel are VSiN’s odd(s) couple—one is a former newspaper reporter who has covered the Las Vegas scene for 17 years, the other is a millennial with an encyclopedic knowledge of sports.

My Guys in the Desert (6-8 p.m. ET): Hall of Fame broadcaster Brent Musburger brings his storytelling talents and his who’s who list of contacts to Las Vegas to revel in his semi-hidden pastime of betting on sports. His revolving cast of includes Ron Flatter, Amal Shah and odds-makers Jimmy Vaccaro, Vinny Magliulo and Chris Andrews.

VSiN Fall Weekday Lineup (7 a.m.-8 p.m. ET)

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NFL ObservationsSHOULD WE STARTS BETTING ON BAD TEAMS YET?Cleveland, San Francisco and the New York Giants are all 0-5 and for and intents and purposes, their seasons are over.

For the Browns and 49ers, this was not unexpected, as they were presumed to be terrible teams and have delivered what most expected when it comes to wins and losses. New York, on the other hand, is a total shocker coming off 11-5 campaign. With where these clubs are and likely headed, should you take the contrarian point of view on this terrible trio and wager on it?

If you have not been at least looking at the Niners, that has been missed opportunity, as they have lost last four games by 11 total points, covering three of them. It was almost four, but they lost in OT at Indianapolis.

It is probably too early on the Browns and Giants, as they show no real signs of even rising to the occasion, based on personnel and injuries. However, if the G-Men hit +13 in Denver, that might require a second look.

WHAT IS THE DEAL WITH PITTSBURGH?The Steelers’ struggles have a timeline that go back to when Ben Roethlisberger talked about retirement after last season. Most figured Ben was just acting like Brett Favre and wanting some extra attention.

Next was the LeVeon Bell holdout. That threw off the running game to start the season and it has yet to hit its stride, ranked 24th. With Bell’s unique running style, it does take repetition to sync up blocking. Without the preseason reps, it has been off.

Add in a widely inconsistent run defense that has held three opponents under 92 yards but also has been hit for 220 and 231 yards. That is a team photo of trouble.

Right now Pittsburgh has too many individuals wanting to get “theirs” and not much team play and Big Ben has talked like a disinterested observer.

If this continues this week in Kansas City, the Chiefs win easily, playing as a team.

DID YOU KNOW...New England, Green Bay, Indianapolis and Kansas City are all 4-1 OVER? And that Pittsburgh is 5-0 UNDER and Miami is 4-0 UNDER.

What about teams that have allowed 40 or more points being 6-0 ATS the following week. This Sunday it could be this: “Houston, we Do Not have a problem.”

The New York Jets now have better odds to win Super Bowl then the New York Giants. (Who would have ever thought that?)

UNDER THE CENTER THOUGHTS AFFECTING BETTINGI am of the opinion Eli Manning has greater skill decline than Roethlisberger and this might be the kick in pants Big Ben needed.

Deshaun Watson has the making of being a very good quarterback. I’m not sure Houston can win their division with their latest major injuries, but Watson has the ability and the Texans have the offensive talent to be in every game.

The money is too good, but Sam Bradford is a coach and franchise killer at this point. The Rams built a team around him and he was injured frequently. Philadelphia was all too happy to move on from him. He was not to be blamed for last year with Minnesota, thrown into impossible situation. Yet here we go again. The Vikings thought they had something with Bradford. He plays one great game, but after Monday’s performance who knows if he will be healthy enough all season. That leaves Case Keenum as the best option.

Jay Cutler is not helping Miami one iota and what coach Adam Gase saw two years ago in Chicago, he’s not seeing anymore.

Alex Smith is in perfect sync with head coach Andy Reid in Kansas City and when you think about what Smith does best and not so well in his entire career, this might the best match of players and offensive scheme to his talents.

LOOK AT THE BETTING NUMBERSThe official betting numbers closed with 7-7 split on favorites, with them 8-6 SU. However, more bettors cashed with Tampa Bay (+5.5) than on New England (-3.5).

Two weeks of OVER ended with UNDER’s at 8-6.


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Welcome back to another edition of Line Moves, looking at all the biggest betting moves in college football and the NFL. Besides this we also offer free picks (hot in NFL) on these contests.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL(137) TEXAS TECH at (138) WEST VIRGINIA 12:00 ET ESPNUWest Virginia has played Virginia Tech and TCU close, but come up short. Texas Tech still looks the same, but has played better than expected. At least some bettors have liked what they have seen from the Red Raiders and lowered them from +6 to +3.5 in Morgantown. Keep in mind the Mountaineers are only 1-8 ATS at home off a road loss. Our View - Lean Texas Tech covers

(145) TULANE at (146) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 7:00 ET Tulane brought back 16 starters and has only had one bad game and that was Oklahoma, which happens to many teams. Otherwise, the Green Wave are 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU and are generating wagering enthusiasm being pumped up from -11 to -13. FIU is also 3-2 and has beaten opponents slightly worse clubs than them and been outclassed by superior opposition.Our View- Lean FIU covers

(147) BOSTON COLLEGE at (148) LOUISVILLE 12:20 ET ACCNLouisville does not have enough upper-tier players to take down the elite squads in the ACC. Against those that have varying weaknesses, the Cardinals are expected to outclass them and have been elevated from -19.5 to -21.5 versus Boston College. As has been the case the last several years, the Eagles offense cannot score (16.3 PPG) and this will be their hindrance against Louisville. Our View- Lean Louisville covers

(167) UNLV at (168) AIR FORCE 2:00 ET ATTRMAt first was taken aback that Air Force would have tumbled three points to -7.5 against UNLV. When I began looking at the statistical profile of each team, it was very similar on offense and defense, which changed my perspective, though the Falcons have played harder schedule. Still prefer Flyboys with Rebels s 3-16 ATS away after a loss by 28 or more points.Our View- Lean Air Force covers

(171) APPALACHIAN STATE at (172) IDAHO 5:00 ET ESPN3In this SBC showdown, Appalachian State has the more talented squad and is drawing that support for football bettors in being taken from -10 to -13. The Mountaineers in three previous meetings are 3-0 (2-0-1 ATS) and have enjoyed tremendous edge in speed. Idaho has closed the gap in talent and App. State lacks usual offensive firepower. Our View- Lean Idaho covers

(183) OHIO STATE at (184) NEBRASKA 7:30 ET FS1Nebraska could not contain Wisconsin running game, which means Ohio State will test its will from the get go. Since the Buckeyes’ loss to Oklahoma, their focus has increased and those betting football have raised them from -21.5 to -24 in Lincoln. With the Cornhuskers unable to stop the run and turnover-prone, Ohio State could put up a big number. Our View- Ohio State covers

(189) BAYLOR at (190) OKLAHOMA STATE 3:30 ET FS1Oklahoma State’s confidence has take hit the last two games and they are off a bye looking to regain swagger and pound somebody in Stillwater. Baylor is 0-5, but has looked better the last couple games in covering the spread. The Bears have climbed from +23 to +25.5 and if passing offense clicks they could cover. If Cowboys have pass rush, lights out. Our View- Lean Oklahoma State covers

NFL(255) MIAMI at (256) ATLANTA 1:00 ET CBSWith Miami averaging absurd 10.3 PPG and Atlanta known as ‘hot’ offensive team at home, the Falcons have soared from -10 to -11.5 over the Dolphins. On the surface, nothing really to argue about when looking at what both teams bring to this clash, just remember Miami is a sneaky 27-14-2 ATS as non-division road underdogs. Our View- Lean Miami covers

(257) DETROIT at (258) NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET FOXMatthew Stafford has not been awful, yet to this juncture is not playing at same level as past season for Detroit. Drew Brees has started to figure what he has on offense and the New Orleans defense has made exceptional strides the last couple weeks and the Saints are up from -3 to -4.5. This will probably come back close to original starting point. Our View- Lean New Orleans

(265) L.A. RAMS at (266) JACKSONVILLE 4:05 ET FOXWhen was the last time Jacksonville was a rising favorite against a winning team? Not sure either, but we know it has not been recently, as the Jaguars have been pushed from a Pick to -2.5 versus the Rams. The game will swing on running game and defense and prefer the Jags in this spot. Our View- Jacksonville covers

(273) N.Y. GIANTS at (274) DENVER 8:30 ET NBCThe New York Giants still have 11 games to play, nonetheless, their season is over. With no running game and a flock of receivers injured, it does not seem likely they will score many points against Denver defense and they have shoved from +10 to +12. Still, this is big spread with a total of only 40. Broncos win boring 24-13 contest. Our View- Lean New York covers

College Best Bets – 6-9College Leans - 12-15

NFL Best Bets -8-3NFL Leans - 8-4

Football Line Moves

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Matt Youmans 26-33 (44%)

Jonathan Von Tobel 34-25 (58%)

Power Rating 21-38 (36%)

Effective Strength 30-29 (51%)

Bettors Ratings 25-34 (42%)

Consensus 25-34 (42%)

Friday, October 13, 2017 - (111) WASHINGTON ST at (112) CALIFORNIA (+13)California California California California California California

Saturday, October 14, 2017 - (137) TEXAS TECH at (138) WEST VIRGINIA (-3)West Virginia Texas Tech West Virginia Texas Tech West Virginia West Virginia

Saturday, October 14, 2017 - (141) MICHIGAN at (142) INDIANA (+6)Michigan Michigan Indiana Indiana Michigan Michigan

Saturday, October 14, 2017 - (181) OKLAHOMA at (182) TEXAS (+7.5)Texas Texas Texas Texas Oklahoma Texas

Saturday, October 14, 2017 - (201) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO at (202) NORTH TEXAS (+2.5)North Texas North Texas North Texas TX-San

Antonio

North Texas North Texas

Saturday, October 14, 2017 - (203) TEXAS A&M at (204) FLORIDA (-2.5)Florida Texas A&M Florida Florida Florida Florida

Saturday, October 14, 2017 - (207) AUBURN at (208) LSU (+6.5)LSU Auburn LSU LSU LSU LSU

Saturday, October 14, 2017 - (213) WASHINGTON at (214) ARIZONA ST (+17.5)Arizona St Washington Arizona St Washington Washington Washington

Saturday, October 14, 2017 - (217) BOISE ST at (218) SAN DIEGO ST (-7)San Diego St San Diego St Boise St San Diego St Boise St San Diego St

Saturday, October 14, 2017 - (223) GEORGIA TECH at (224) MIAMI FL (-6.5)Georgia Tech Georgia Tech Miami Fl Georgia Tech Miami Fl Georgia Tech

VSiN College Football Consensus

College Football Best Bets

TODD DEWEYLV Review-JournalLast week: 4-1Season: 11-18-1West Virginia -3.5Indiana +6.5Air Force -7.5Memphis -3.5Georgia Tech +7

PAUL HOWARDVSiN.comLast week: 3-2Season: 19-10-1Virginia -4Texas A&M-Florida Under 52Auburn-LSU Under 44.5Michigan State-Minnesota Under 40.5Arizona State +17

BRETT LAWSONVSiN.comLast week: 3-2Season: 12-18Wisconsin -16Texas Tech +3.5Boston College +21.5Florida State -7Nebraska +24

AMAL SHAHVSiN.comLast week: 2-3Season: 13-16-1Washington State -13.5Illinois -2.5South Carolina +2.5Colorado -11.5Washington -17

MATT YOUMANSVSiN.comLast week: 3-2Season: 16-14West Virginia -3.5Texas +7.5Nebraska +24South Carolina +2.5Louisiana State +6.5


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OKLAHOMA-TEXASA flag was planted in the middle of a football field last Saturday, and it had to hurt Baker Mayfield to see it. Iowa State players were trolling the Oklahoma quarterback after an upset that rocked the Big 12 Conference from top to bottom. The Cyclones, 31-point underdogs, stormed into Norman and stunned the Sooners 38-31. There was no way to see it coming. Kyle Kempt, a senior backup who had attempted only two passes in his career, threw for 343 yards and three touchdowns to outplay Mayfield, a Heisman Trophy candidate. Oklahoma’s 17-game conference win streak ended, and its College Football Playoff plans are in serious jeopardy. The Sooners were in great position due to their flag-planting upset win at Ohio State in early September. Now, how will they respond? Texas has responded remarkably well since losing its opener to Maryland as a double-digit home favorite. The Longhorns have won three of their past four, including a 17-7 win at Iowa State. Texas coach Tom Herman has a spotless spread record (7-0) against ranked opponents. He picked up six outright wins as an underdog as Houston’s coach. He led the Longhorns, 17-point ‘dogs, to a 27-24 double-overtime loss at Southern California on Sept. 16. Last week, Texas narrowly escaped 5½-point underdog Kansas State 40-34 in double overtime in a bizarre point-spread result that was a brutal beat for most ‘dog bettors. The Longhorns have a power running back in 250-pound Chris Warren III, and Herman appears to have found his favorite quarterback. Sam Ehlinger, a freshman, passed for 380 yards and two touchdowns and added 107 yards on the ground against the Wildcats. Ehlinger, 2-1 as the starter, is probably a better fit for Herman’s offense than Shane Buechele, who has been injured. On the other side, Mayfield remains in the Heisman hunt. His numbers (74.6 percent completions, 15 touchdowns, no interceptions) are tough to top. His mobility will be important against a Longhorns defensive front that cranks up the pressure on quarterbacks and put the heat on USC’s Sam Darnold. Oklahoma opened as an 8-point favorite in the Red River rivalry in Dallas. The Sooners’ stock is down, so look for the line to drop a little. It’s tempting to side with Texas, partly due to Herman’s track record as an underdog.

AUBURN-LOUISIANA STATEPositive media coverage can be “rat poison” for players, according to happy-go-lucky Alabama coach Nick Saban. On the flip side, negativity from the media and fans can be a tonic to motivate an underachieving team. LSU’s Ed Orgeron heard the catcalls last week, and he was backed into a corner after his team was upset by Troy. The Tigers hit the road and answered by beating Florida 17-16 to keep the raging Cajuns and media critics off Orgeron’s back for at least a week. It seems only two Southeastern Conference teams can challenge the Crimson Tide’s supremacy this season, and LSU is not one of those two. Auburn and Georgia are the real threats to Saban. Auburn is a 7-point favorite at LSU, which is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings in the series. It’s never easy to go into Baton Rouge and win, but this is the weakest LSU team in several years. Most of the problems lie on the offensive side, where quarterback Danny Etling is struggling and star running back Derrius Guice is not fully healthy. Etling completed 9 of 16 passes for 125 yards and a touchdown against the Gators, while Guice was limited to 50 yards rushing on 17 carries. Big plays will be more difficult to produce against a dominant Auburn defense that has held five of six opponents to 14 points or fewer. Auburn coach Gus Malzahn has become more creative with the play-calling since a 14-6 loss at Clemson on Sept. 9, when Jarrett Stidham was a sitting duck in the pocket and got sacked 11 times. Malzahn’s offense has put up 144 points in the past three SEC games. Stidham has completed 71.2 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns. Kerryon Johnson, who rushed for 204 yards last week against Mississippi, leads a deep and talented Auburn backfield. LSU’s ability to hang close in the fourth quarter will hinge on Etling getting time to throw and Guice finding room to run. It’s easier said than done. The line has dipped from 8 to 6½ at most books. LSU is always dangerous as a home ‘dog, so getting 7 points or more could be the way to look.

OHIO STATE-NEBRASKAMike Riley has made history at Nebraska, but this is not what the old coach wants to hear. The Cornhuskers never have been home underdogs by this many points (24), according to records kept by The Gold Sheet. Somewhere, Tom Osborne is cringing in disgust. Nebraska is no longer a college football powerhouse or even a contender in the Big Ten West. Ohio State rolls into Lincoln for a Saturday night game as a 24-point favorite. It’s not an easy take, either, because Urban Meyer is a cutthroat coach who knows he needs to stack up style points to get the one-loss Buckeyes back into the playoff discussion. How good is this Ohio State team? That’s up for debate. Since getting upended by Oklahoma, the Buckeyes have bashed a feeble foursome of Army, UNLV, Rutgers and Maryland by a combined score of 210-42. J.T. Barrett has 16 touchdown passes with one interception, and J.K. Dobbins has 669 yards rushing, but those numbers mean little against a weak schedule. After the trip to Nebraska, Ohio State has a bye week to prepare for the Penn State showdown on Sept. 28. The Cornhuskers were just rolled 38-17 by Big Ten West leader (and eventual champion) Wisconsin in Lincoln. Badgers freshman sensation Jonathan Taylor rushed for 249 yards and two touchdowns, so it’s obvious the Nebraska run defense will have problems with Dobbins and Barrett. As for Riley’s sputtering offense, quarterback Tanner Lee is showing slight improvement, running back Devine Ozigbo went for 112 yards against Wisconsin, and wideout Stanley Morgan Jr. can make plays if Lee can deliver the ball. The Buckeyes put a 62-3 beating on the Cornhuskers last year in Columbus, but this is a different setting. Nebraska is 20-1 in home night games since 2008, with the loss coming last week. The preference is to take the pile of points with the home ‘dog. If the Cornhuskers stink it up, Riley could be done the next day. Maybe he could return for a third stint at Oregon State, where there is an opening.

Matt Youmans’ 3 College Football Games to Watch

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Three different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in the publication. In the chart below, you’ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The Power

Ratings columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained manually for every game throughout the season. The Effective Strength (Effective Strg) Ratings quantify a team’s performance against varied schedule strengths. Finally, the Bettors’ Ratings (Bettors’ Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team’s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors’ feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total.

BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?101 S ALABAMA 48 27.0 17.4 17.7 102 TROY -17 39.5 -15.5 32.3 31.6 107 TEXAS ST UNIV 58 16.0 22.5 26.8 TXST108 LA LAFAYETTE -14.5 27.0 -14.0 36.0 35.6 109 CLEMSON -22.5 65.0 38.5 39.1 110 SYRACUSE 55.5 43.0 19.0 17.1 16.7 111 WASHINGTON ST -13 57.0 31.6 31.9 112 CALIFORNIA 53 41.5 11.5 20.1 23.8 CAL 113 PURDUE 52 44.5 18.5 12.6 114 WISCONSIN -15.5 60.5 -20.5 WIS 33.3 38.4 WIS 115 NORTHWESTERN -3.5 45.0 26.2 31.4 OVER116 MARYLAND 49.5 40.5 4.0 23.6 29.1 117 MIAMI OHIO -9.5 32.5 24.6 24.8 118 KENT ST 43 19.0 5.3 17.7 16.1 119 OHIO U -9.5 33.5 33.6 33.6 120 BOWLING GREEN 59.5 23.5 6.3 23.1 25.5 121 AKRON 57 30.5 24.3 21.7 122 W MICHIGAN -13.5 41.0 -15.3 34.8 36.6 123 TOLEDO -7.5 41.5 35.3 36.9 124 C MICHIGAN 62 30.0 8.8 24.1 28.5 125 E MICHIGAN 45 34.5 22.1 18.8 126 ARMY -4.5 39.5 -9.0 ARMY 24.9 28.9 ARMY 127 N ILLINOIS -4 38.0 24.2 24.0 128 BUFFALO 48.5 35.0 2.8 21.9 22.6 129 CONNECTICUT 62.5 22.5 24.2 23.1 130 TEMPLE -10 35.0 -17.5 TEM 35.6 35.3 133 VIRGINIA -4 42.5 28.4 23.7 134 NORTH CAROLINA 55 38.0 0.5 25.9 31.9 UNC 135 RUTGERS 48.5 32.0 21.9 22.0 136 ILLINOIS -2 32.0 -3.3 25.5 25.1 137 TEXAS TECH 78 49.0 34.4 UNDER 36.9 138 WEST VIRGINIA -3 48.0 -3.0 36.3 42.4 139 NC STATE -12 52.5 34.1 31.9 140 PITTSBURGH 56 43.0 9.3 21.7 24.7 PITT 141 MICHIGAN -6 56.0 23.2 28.8 OVER142 INDIANA 46 45.5 4.3 23.7 IND 22.0 143 EAST CAROLINA 73 22.5 19.2 ECU 20.5 ECU144 UCF -33.5 50.0 -31.3 42.6 UNDER 43.4 UNDER 145 TULANE -13.5 41.0 31.2 31.0 146 FLA INTERNATIONAL 47.5 24.0 13.0 20.5 20.7 147 BOSTON COLLEGE 57 37.0 21.1 BC 18.1 148 LOUISVILLE -21.5 52.0 -19.3 37.5 40.8 149 KANSAS 68 26.5 22.3 UNDER 24.6 150 IOWA ST -20.5 47.5 -23.3 41.2 41.0 151 TCU -4.5 57.0 27.8 28.2 152 KANSAS ST 53.5 53.0 3.8 24.2 23.3 153 OLD DOMINION 53 25.0 19.1 21.5 ODU154 MARSHALL -15.5 34.5 -13.3 31.7 28.0 155 FLORIDA ST -6.5 56.0 24.9 25.4 156 DUKE 43.5 45.5 2.0 DUKE 19.8 17.2 157 HOUSTON -14 47.5 40.6 31.0 UNDER158 TULSA 65 32.0 12.3 25.8 22.7 TLS

College Football Strength Ratings


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BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?159 MIDDLE TENN ST -5 34.0 28.7 33.2 160 UAB 56 24.0 1.5 24.7 25.2 161 GEORGIA ST 57 26.5 23.6 26.1 GST162 LA MONROE -7 29.0 -5.3 30.1 27.4 163 CHARLOTTE 46.5 17.5 15.5 13.8 164 W KENTUCKY -17 35.0 -22.3 WKU 32.2 34.2 165 WYOMING 49 34.0 23.7 30.3 WYO166 UTAH ST -3 33.5 -3.8 27.4 27.9 OVER 167 UNLV 68.5 30.5 30.9 26.9 168 AIR FORCE -7.5 38.5 -13.0 AF 35.8 40.8 AF 169 NEVADA 65.5 25.0 15.5 UNDER 19.8 NEV170 COLORADO ST -24.5 47.5 -26.5 44.2 37.5 UNDER 171 APPALACHIAN ST -13 40.0 30.3 28.3 172 IDAHO 48.5 26.5 10.3 18.9 19.4 173 UTAH 54.5 51.0 20.4 18.2 174 USC -12.5 59.5 -12.3 32.9 37.2 USC 175 COLORADO -12 46.5 31.5 30.3 UNDER176 OREGON ST 55.5 32.0 13.3 24.2 ORST 20.4 177 UCLA 79 50.0 34.6 UNDER 40.0 UCLA178 ARIZONA -1.5 46.0 0.0 37.4 35.7 179 VANDERBILT 55.5 42.0 27.5 26.6 180 OLE MISS -3 45.0 -7.0 27.5 31.7 181 OKLAHOMA -7.5 62.5 32.2 38.5 OKL182 TEXAS 63 53.5 5.5 27.7 22.1 183 OHIO ST -24 68.0 41.6 37.3 184 NEBRASKA 56.5 44.5 20.5 16.1 17.4 185 BYU 46 34.0 16.5 BYU 14.6 BYU186 MISSISSIPPI ST -22.5 51.5 -21.5 33.2 30.5 187 ARKANSAS 55.5 43.5 16.5 ARK 15.0 188 ALABAMA -30 72.0 -32.5 38.9 42.9 189 BAYLOR 70.5 44.0 24.2 22.6 190 OKLAHOMA ST -25.5 61.5 -21.8 46.7 48.1 191 MISSOURI 57 37.0 18.6 MIS 20.9 MIS192 GEORGIA -30.5 65.0 -31.5 40.5 41.2 OVER 193 NAVY 75 43.0 28.5 UNDER 30.2 UNDER194 MEMPHIS -4 45.0 -6.0 33.6 38.2 195 NEW MEXICO ST -8 30.0 31.9 29.1 196 GA SOUTHERN 59.5 23.0 2.8 GAS 25.4 30.3 GAS 197 UTEP 52.5 19.0 UTEP 12.4 16.4 198 SOUTHERN MISS -23 33.5 -18.3 38.3 37.1 199 COASTAL CAROLINA 62.5 22.0 22.4 24.2 CC200 ARKANSAS ST -19 35.0 -17.5 40.7 37.1 201 TX-SAN ANTONIO -2.5 36.0 31.9 29.6 202 NORTH TEXAS 60 31.5 0.3 27.5 27.2 203 TEXAS A&M 52 50.5 24.2 25.1 204 FLORIDA -2.5 50.0 -2.8 27.4 28.8 205 SOUTH CAROLINA 48 46.0 22.5 16.5 206 TENNESSEE -2.5 46.0 -3.3 25.7 28.9 TEN 207 AUBURN -6.5 62.0 24.7 20.6 208 LSU 44.5 54.5 3.8 21.2 22.9 LSU 209 MICHIGAN ST -4.5 47.0 22.0 21.5 210 MINNESOTA 40 43.0 0.5 18.8 18.1 211 OREGON 61.5 53.0 23.6 27.0 212 STANFORD -10.5 56.0 -11.5 34.2 36.0 213 WASHINGTON -17.5 64.0 38.6 WAS 40.1 214 ARIZONA ST 62 45.5 14.8 15.8 UNDER 20.4 215 NEW MEXICO 54 35.5 24.7 24.3 216 FRESNO ST -2.5 37.0 -5.3 26.4 30.1 217 BOISE ST 44.5 44.5 18.7 27.4 BST218 SAN DIEGO ST -7 47.0 -6.3 26.4 23.8 OVER 219 SAN JOSE ST 63.5 17.0 21.4 22.8 220 HAWAII -18 29.0 -15.3 39.1 36.6 221 CINCINNATI 69.5 30.0 20.9 22.7 CIN222 SOUTH FLORIDA -24.5 51.0 -25.0 47.2 42.5 223 GEORGIA TECH 52.5 52.0 24.0 21.9 224 MIAMI FL -6.5 57.5 -9.3 29.4 33.3 MIA

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College Football Matchups(101) S ALABAMA [SU:1-4 | ATS:2-3] AT (102) TROY (-17 | 48) [SU:4-1 | ATS:1-3-1]OCTOBER 11, 2017 8:00 PM on ESPN2 - VETERANS MEMORIAL STADIUM (TROY, AL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF S ALABAMA 23.6 18 35-142 [4.1] 28-15-187 [6.7] 13.9 30.8 23 32-129 [4.0] 36-24-292 [8.0] 13.7 +1 -7.2 TROY 24.0 22 34-178 [5.2] 37-24-250 [6.7] 17.8 18.6 19 31-109 [3.5] 35-21-231 [6.5] 18.3 +2 +5.4

V-TRENDS• TROY is 3-8 ATS(L2Y) - as favorite of more than 7 points

SEASON GAME LOGSS ALABAMA RESULTS TROY RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU09-30 at LOUISIANA TECH +11.5 57 16-34 L L U 09-30 at LSU +20.5 48.5 24-21 W W U 09-23 VS IDAHO - 6.5 53 23-29 L L U 09-23 VS AKRON -17 55.5 22-17 W L U 09-16 VS ALABAMA A&M -36 50.5 45-0 W W U 09-16 at NEW MEXICO ST - 9.5 60.5 27-24 W L U 09-08 VS OKLAHOMA ST +28 67.5 7-44 L L U 09-09 VS ALABAMA ST -43.5 51 34-7 W L U 09-02 at MISSISSIPPI +21.5 59.5 27-47 L W O 09-02 at BOISE ST +11 58 13-24 L P U

(107) TEXAS ST [SU:1-5 | ATS:2-4] AT (108) LA LAFAYETTE (-14.5 | 58) [SU:2-3 | ATS:1-3-1]OCTOBER 12, 2017 7:30 PM on ESPNU - CAJUN FIELD (LAFAYETTE, LA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TEXAS ST 14.5 17 41-131 [3.2] 26-14-169 [6.5] 20.7 33.7 21 38-144 [3.7] 31-19-266 [8.6] 12.2 -5 -19.2LA LAFAYETTE 37.0 23 38-179 [4.7] 34-21-239 [6.9] 11.3 46.2 25 50-265 [5.3] 28-18-241 [8.6] 11.0 -3 -9.2

V-TRENDS• LA LAFAYETTE is 3-12 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards

per point(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSTEXAS ST RESULTS LA LAFAYETTE RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS LA MONROE + 5.5 54.5 27-45 L L O 10-07 at IDAHO + 6 61.5 21-16 W W U 09-30 at WYOMING +16.5 45 10-45 L L O 09-23 VS LA MONROE - 4 59 50-56 L L O 09-23 VS TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO +13.5 45 14-44 L L O 09-16 at TEXAS A&M +24 62.5 21-45 L P O 09-16 VS APPALACHIAN ST +21.5 49.5 13-20 L W U 09-09 at TULSA +14 59 42-66 L L O 09-09 at COLORADO +36.5 55.5 3-37 L W U 09-02 VS SE LOUISIANA -14.5 52 51-48 W L O 09-02 VS HOUSTON BAPTIST -16.5 57 20-11 W L U

(109) CLEMSON (-22.5 | 55.5) [SU:6-0 | ATS:4-2] AT (110) SYRACUSE [SU:3-3 | ATS:3-2-1]OCTOBER 13, 2017 7:00 PM on ESPN - CARRIER DOME (SYRACUSE, NY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CLEMSON (2) 35.0 24 46-238 [5.2] 31-21-234 [7.5] 13.5 11.3 14 35-99 [2.8] 30-16-165 [5.6] 23.4 -1 +23.7 SYRACUSE 32.0 24 39-142 [3.7] 47-30-325 [6.9] 14.6 24.3 19 35-131 [3.8] 33-19-226 [6.8] 14.7 -1 +7.7

V-TRENDS• SYRACUSE is 13-4 UNDER(L2Y) - All Games

SEASON GAME LOGSCLEMSON (2) RESULTS SYRACUSE RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS WAKE FOREST -21 50.5 28-14 W L U 10-07 VS PITTSBURGH - 3 63 27-24 W P U 09-30 at VIRGINIA TECH - 7 48.5 31-17 W W U 09-30 at NC STATE +14 62.5 25-33 L W U 09-23 VS BOSTON COLLEGE -33 53 34-7 W L U 09-23 at LSU +21.5 56 26-35 L W O 09-16 at LOUISVILLE - 3.5 62 47-21 W W O 09-16 VS C MICHIGAN - 7.5 66.5 41-17 W W U 09-09 VS AUBURN - 6 55.5 14-6 W W U 09-09 VS MIDDLE TENN ST - 7.5 72 23-30 L L U 09-02 VS KENT ST -37.5 52 56-3 W W O 09-01 VS C CONN ST -46 70.5 50-7 W L U





33

(111) WASHINGTON ST (-13 | 53) [SU:6-0 | ATS:4-2] AT (112) CALIFORNIA [SU:3-3 | ATS:3-3]OCTOBER 13, 2017 10:30 PM on ESPN - CALIFORNIA MEMORIAL STADIUM (BERKELEY, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WASH ST (8) 39.7 25 26-83 [3.2] 53-38-392 [7.4] 12.0 18.5 15 34-129 [3.7] 27-15-146 [5.4] 14.9 +6 +21.2 CALIFORNIA 24.3 18 33-97 [2.9] 39-21-248 [6.3] 14.2 29.8 23 41-172 [4.2] 39-24-264 [6.7] 14.6 -1 -5.5

V-TRENDS• CALIFORNIA is 18-6-1 UNDER(L25G) - In October

SEASON GAME LOGSWASHINGTON ST (8) RESULTS CALIFORNIA RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 at OREGON - 1 59.5 33-10 W W U 10-07 at WASHINGTON +28 54.5 7-38 L L U 09-29 VS USC + 4.5 59 30-27 W W U 09-30 at OREGON +16 68 24-45 L L O 09-23 VS NEVADA -28.5 65.5 45-7 W W U 09-23 VS USC +17 61 20-30 L W U 09-16 VS OREGON ST -17.5 65 52-23 W W O 09-16 VS MISSISSIPPI + 6 69.5 27-16 W W U 09-09 VS BOISE ST - 9.5 58 47-44 W L O 09-09 VS WEBER ST -26 65.5 33-20 W L U 09-02 VS MONTANA ST -40 62 31-0 W L U 09-02 at NORTH CAROLINA +13 56.5 35-30 W W O

(113) PURDUE [SU:3-2 | ATS:4-1] AT (114) WISCONSIN (-15.5 | 52) [SU:5-0 | ATS:3-2]OCTOBER 14, 2017 3:30 PM on BTN - CAMP RANDALL STADIUM (MADISON, WI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PURDUE 29.6 21 33-136 [4.2] 36-22-265 [7.4] 13.5 20.8 20 37-148 [4.0] 32-18-226 [7.1] 18.0 +2 +8.8 WISCONSIN (7) 40.2 23 47-258 [5.5] 22-14-203 [9.3] 11.5 14.2 14 30-81 [2.8] 32-18-192 [6.0] 19.2 +2 +26.0

After putting away Nebraska with a big second half, it is presumed Wisconsin will reach the Big Ten title game. But just wait, Purdue had sensational four-quarter comeback against Minnesota and showed great courage not to get down after committing four first half turnovers and finding a way to win. Just five games in the Jeff Brohm era at Purdue, there are actual positive expectations about the Boilermakers and rest assured they will draw support to at least cover in Madison and are 8-1 ATS on the Big Ten road in recent years. No doubt Wisconsin is the better team and has more talent on both sides of the ball, however, the Badgers are 0-6 ATS as 10+ point home favorites off a cover.

V-TRENDS• PURDUE is 10-2 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(CS)• WISCONSIN is 6-9 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - As favorite• PURDUE is 8-3 OVER(L2Y) - Conference games

SEASON GAME LOGSPURDUE RESULTS WISCONSIN (7) RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS MINNESOTA - 3.5 45 31-17 W W O 10-07 at NEBRASKA -12.5 47 38-17 W W O 09-23 VS MICHIGAN +13.5 52.5 10-28 L L U 09-30 VS NORTHWESTERN -16 52.5 33-24 W L O 09-16 at MISSOURI + 5.5 75.5 35-3 W W U 09-16 at BYU -14 43 40-6 W W O 09-08 VS OHIO - 3 54 44-21 W W O 09-09 VS FL ATLANTIC -34.5 60 31-14 W L U 09-02 ** LOUISVILLE +25.5 66 28-35 L W U 09-01 VS UTAH ST -27 52.5 59-10 W W O

(115) NORTHWESTERN (-3 | 49.5) [SU:2-3 | ATS:2-3] AT (116) MARYLAND [SU:3-2 | ATS:3-2]OCTOBER 14, 2017 3:30 PM on ESPN2 - MARYLAND STADIUM (COLLEGE PARK, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NORTHWESTERN 25.6 21 36-115 [3.2] 38-24-263 [6.9] 14.8 26.4 22 38-135 [3.6] 37-22-249 [6.6] 14.5 -4 -0.8 MARYLAND 33.8 18 41-197 [4.8] 20-13-142 [7.0] 10.0 36.4 22 37-162 [4.3] 36-22-259 [7.2] 11.6 +3 -2.6

V-TRENDS• NORTHWESTERN is 10-3 UNDER(L3Y) - As favorite

SEASON GAME LOGSNORTHWESTERN RESULTS MARYLAND RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS PENN ST +14.5 52 7-31 L L U 10-07 at OHIO ST +30.5 61.5 14-62 L L O 09-30 at WISCONSIN +16 52.5 24-33 L W O 09-30 at MINNESOTA +13.5 44.5 31-24 W W O 09-16 VS BOWLING GREEN -21 57.5 49-7 W W U 09-23 VS UCF - 4.5 61.5 10-38 L L U 09-09 at DUKE - 2 54.5 17-41 L L O 09-09 VS TOWSON -33 55 63-17 W W O 09-02 VS NEVADA -24 60 31-20 W L U 09-02 at TEXAS +18.5 57 51-41 W W O

College Football MatchupsOffensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF



34



(117) MIAMI OHIO (-9.5 | 43) [SU:2-4 | ATS:1-5] AT (118) KENT ST [SU:1-5 | ATS:2-4]OCTOBER 14, 2017 3:30 PM on ESPN3 - DIX STADIUM (KENT, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIAMI OHIO 25.2 22 40-147 [3.7] 33-17-253 [7.7] 15.9 27.5 19 36-180 [5.0] 30-16-195 [6.5] 13.6 0 -2.3 KENT ST 10.0 13 46-153 [3.3] 15-7-97 [6.4] 25.0 33.5 22 41-215 [5.3] 28-17-232 [8.1] 13.3 +1 -23.5

V-TRENDS• MIAMI OH is 20-5 UNDER(L25G) on ROAD - In October

SEASON GAME LOGSMIAMI OHIO RESULTS KENT ST RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS BOWLING GREEN -16.5 51 29-37 L L O 10-07 at N ILLINOIS +23.5 44 3-24 L W U 09-30 at NOTRE DAME +21 53.5 17-52 L L O 09-30 VS BUFFALO + 7 40.5 13-27 L L U 09-23 at C MICHIGAN PK 51 31-14 W W U 09-23 at LOUISVILLE +41.5 57 3-42 L W U 09-16 VS CINCINNATI - 3.5 49 17-21 L L U 09-16 at MARSHALL +14 49.5 0-21 L L U 09-09 VS AUSTIN PEAY -34.5 60 31-10 W L U 09-09 VS HOWARD -24.5 54.5 38-31 W L O 09-02 at MARSHALL - 4 48.5 26-31 L L O 09-02 at CLEMSON +37.5 52 3-56 L L O

(119) OHIO U (-9.5 | 59.5) [SU:4-2 | ATS:4-2] AT (120) BOWLING GREEN [SU:1-5 | ATS:1-5]OCTOBER 14, 2017 3:30 PM on ESPN3 - DOYT PERRY STADIUM (BOWLING GREEN, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OHIO U 38.3 22 43-210 [4.9] 26-16-200 [7.6] 10.7 28.3 20 34-116 [3.5] 39-23-272 [6.9] 13.7 -3 +10.0 BOWLING GREEN 19.5 18 33-130 [3.9] 37-19-237 [6.4] 18.8 34.3 28 45-232 [5.2] 33-21-296 [8.8] 15.4 +3 -14.8

V-TRENDS• BOWLING GREEN is 11-2 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than

15.3 yards per point(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSOHIO U RESULTS BOWLING GREEN RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS C MICHIGAN -10 54.5 23-26 L L U 10-07 at MIAMI OH +16.5 51 37-29 W W O 09-30 at MASSACHUSETTS - 5 53 58-50 W W O 09-30 VS AKRON + 3 58.5 23-34 L L U 09-23 at E MICHIGAN + 1.5 54.5 27-20 W W U 09-23 at MIDDLE TENN ST + 7.5 54 13-24 L L U 09-16 VS KANSAS - 7 59 42-30 W W O 09-16 at NORTHWESTERN +21 57.5 7-49 L L U 09-08 at PURDUE + 3 54 21-44 L L O 09-09 VS S DAKOTA - 3.5 66.5 27-35 L L U 09-02 VS HAMPTON -36.5 47.5 59-0 W W O 09-02 at MICHIGAN ST +18 56 10-35 L L U

(121) AKRON [SU:3-3 | ATS:4-2] AT (122) W MICHIGAN (-13.5 | 57) [SU:4-2 | ATS:2-4]OCTOBER 14, 2017 3:30 PM on CBSSN - WALDO STADIUM (KALAMAZOO, MI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF AKRON 24.7 20 35-131 [3.8] 32-18-213 [6.5] 13.9 24.0 20 36-165 [4.5] 36-22-249 [7.0] 17.2 +1 +0.7 W MICHIGAN 42.8 22 48-237 [4.9] 24-16-177 [7.3] 9.7 31.7 19 36-150 [4.2] 33-20-251 [7.5] 12.6 +5 +11.1

V-TRENDS• AKRON is 13-3 UNDER(L5Y) on ROAD - As underdog

SEASON GAME LOGSAKRON RESULTS W MICHIGAN RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS BALL ST - 4 52 31-3 W W U 10-07 at BUFFALO - 7 51 71-68 W L O 09-30 at BOWLING GREEN - 3 58.5 34-23 W W U 09-30 VS BALL ST -12.5 55 55-3 W W O 09-23 at TROY +17 55.5 17-22 L W U 09-23 VS WAGNER -37.5 54.5 49-14 W L O 09-16 VS IOWA ST +10 62.5 14-41 L L U 09-16 VS IDAHO -17 55 37-28 W L O 09-09 VS ARK-PINE BLUFF -48.5 57 52-3 W W U 09-09 at MICHIGAN ST + 7 51.5 14-28 L L U 09-02 at PENN ST +30 62.5 0-52 L L U 09-02 at USC +28 59.5 31-49 L W O





35

(123) TOLEDO (-7.5 | 62) [SU:4-1 | ATS:1-4] AT (124) C MICHIGAN [SU:3-3 | ATS:2-4]OCTOBER 14, 2017 3:30 PM on ESPN3 - KELLY/SHORTS STADIUM (MOUNT PLEASANT, MI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TOLEDO 37.6 26 42-174 [4.1] 36-22-327 [9.2] 13.3 31.0 21 36-197 [5.5] 29-17-207 [7.0] 13.0 +2 +6.6 C MICHIGAN 23.3 21 37-129 [3.5] 42-24-276 [6.5] 17.4 29.5 20 40-191 [4.8] 35-19-225 [6.5] 14.1 +3 -6.2

V-TRENDS• TOLEDO is 12-4 UNDER(L5Y) - Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.5 yards per

attempt(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSTOLEDO RESULTS C MICHIGAN RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS E MICHIGAN -12.5 60 20-15 W L U 10-07 at OHIO +10 54.5 26-23 W W U 09-23 at MIAMI FL +13.5 60.5 30-52 L L O 09-30 at BOSTON COLLEGE +10 51.5 8-28 L L U 09-16 VS TULSA - 7 73.5 54-51 W L O 09-23 VS MIAMI OH PK 51 14-31 L L U 09-09 at NEVADA -11 69 37-24 W W U 09-16 at SYRACUSE + 7.5 66.5 17-41 L L U 08-31 VS ELON -45 55 47-13 W L O 09-09 at KANSAS + 3 56 45-27 W W O 08-31 VS RHODE ISLAND -34 57 30-27 W L P

(125) E MICHIGAN [SU:2-3 | ATS:4-1] AT (126) ARMY (-4.5 | 45) [SU:4-2 | ATS:3-3]OCTOBER 14, 2017 12:00 PM on CBSSN - MICHIE STADIUM (WEST POINT, NY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF E MICHIGAN 19.0 19 31-74 [2.4] 41-24-277 [6.8] 18.5 18.2 17 38-131 [3.4] 32-18-195 [6.1] 17.9 -1 +0.8 ARMY 32.2 20 59-373 [6.3] 5-1-21 [3.8] 12.2 19.2 18 32-177 [5.5] 26-16-185 [7.1] 18.9 +2 +13.0

V-TRENDS• ARMY is 8-18 ATS(S2000) at HOME - Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.0 yards

per play(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSE MICHIGAN RESULTS ARMY RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 at TOLEDO +13 60 15-20 L W U 10-07 at RICE -12 48 49-12 W W O 09-30 at KENTUCKY +14 50.5 20-24 L W U 09-30 VS UTEP -22.5 49.5 35-21 W L O 09-23 VS OHIO - 1.5 54.5 20-27 L L U 09-23 at TULANE + 3 45.5 17-21 L L U 09-09 at RUTGERS + 6 51 16-13 W W U 09-16 at OHIO ST +32.5 55 7-38 L W U 09-01 VS CHARLOTTE -14 59 24-7 W W U 09-09 VS BUFFALO -16 53.5 21-17 W L U 09-01 VS FORDHAM -18.5 66 64-6 W W O

(127) N ILLINOIS (-4 | 48.5) [SU:3-2 | ATS:4-1] AT (128) BUFFALO [SU:3-3 | ATS:5-1]OCTOBER 14, 2017 3:30 PM on ESPN3 - UB STADIUM (BUFFALO, NY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF N ILLINOIS 26.2 19 42-158 [3.8] 32-18-197 [6.2] 13.5 17.4 15 42-104 [2.5] 32-16-156 [4.9] 14.9 -1 +8.8 BUFFALO 31.0 21 39-166 [4.2] 30-17-263 [8.8] 13.8 27.2 23 50-237 [4.7] 26-14-175 [6.8] 15.1 -1 +3.8

V-TRENDS• N ILLINOIS is 14-2 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Conference games

SEASON GAME LOGSN ILLINOIS RESULTS BUFFALO RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS KENT ST -23.5 44 24-3 W L U 10-07 VS W MICHIGAN + 7 51 68-71 L W O 09-30 at SAN DIEGO ST + 9 47.5 28-34 L W O 09-30 at KENT ST - 7 40.5 27-13 W W U 09-16 at NEBRASKA +10.5 56.5 21-17 W W U 09-23 VS FL ATLANTIC PK 59 34-31 W W O 09-09 VS E ILLINOIS -14.5 54.5 38-10 W W U 09-16 VS COLGATE -24.5 40 33-10 W L O 09-01 VS BOSTON COLLEGE + 4 46.5 20-23 L W U 09-09 at ARMY +16 53.5 17-21 L W U 08-31 at MINNESOTA +23 49.5 7-17 L W U




36



(129) CONNECTICUT [SU:1-4 | ATS:0-5] AT (130) TEMPLE (-10 | 62.5) [SU:3-3 | ATS:2-4]OCTOBER 14, 2017 12:00 PM on ESPNN - LINCOLN FINANCIAL FIELD (PHILADELPHIA, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CONNECTICUT 28.4 22 37-143 [3.8] 34-23-326 [9.6] 16.5 43.6 29 38-176 [4.6] 46-32-400 [8.7] 13.2 -7 -15.2TEMPLE 19.2 18 36-100 [2.8] 35-18-234 [6.7] 17.4 26.0 22 37-172 [4.6] 34-20-253 [7.4] 16.3 -4 -6.8

V-TRENDS• TEMPLE is 10-3 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7

yards per play(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSCONNECTICUT RESULTS TEMPLE RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-06 VS MEMPHIS +16 76 31-70 L L O 10-07 at EAST CAROLINA - 3.5 58.5 34-10 W W U 09-30 at SMU +16.5 75 28-49 L L O 09-30 VS HOUSTON +11.5 44.5 13-20 L W U 09-24 VS EAST CAROLINA - 5 63 38-41 L L O 09-21 at SOUTH FLORIDA +17.5 61 7-43 L L U 09-16 at VIRGINIA +12.5 51.5 18-38 L L O 09-15 VS MASSACHUSETTS -14.5 51.5 29-21 W L U 08-31 VS HOLY CROSS -23.5 60 27-20 W L U 09-09 VS VILLANOVA -17 42 16-13 W L U 09-02 at NOTRE DAME +20 55.5 16-49 L L O

(133) VIRGINIA (-4 | 55) [SU:4-1 | ATS:3-2] AT (134) NORTH CAROLINA [SU:1-5 | ATS:1-5]OCTOBER 14, 2017 3:30 PM - KENAN STADIUM (CHAPEL HILL, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF VIRGINIA 30.6 22 33-123 [3.7] 44-28-286 [6.6] 13.4 21.2 19 36-131 [3.7] 33-17-195 [5.9] 15.4 +4 +9.4 NORTH CAROLINA 25.3 18 34-133 [3.9] 36-21-240 [6.7] 14.7 33.0 23 47-242 [5.2] 31-17-228 [7.5] 14.2 -2 -7.7

V-TRENDS• VIRGINIA is 12-2 UNDER(S2000) on ROAD - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.7

yards per play(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSVIRGINIA RESULTS NORTH CAROLINA RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS DUKE + 1 53 28-21 W W U 10-07 VS NOTRE DAME +13 64 10-33 L L U 09-22 at BOISE ST +14 50.5 42-23 W W O 09-30 at GEORGIA TECH + 8 57 7-33 L L U 09-16 VS CONNECTICUT -12.5 51.5 38-18 W W O 09-23 VS DUKE - 2.5 61 17-27 L L U 09-09 VS INDIANA + 3.5 56 17-34 L L U 09-16 at OLD DOMINION -11 56.5 53-23 W W O 09-02 VS WILLIAM & MARY -28 50 28-10 W L U 09-09 VS LOUISVILLE +11.5 65.5 35-47 L L O 09-02 VS CALIFORNIA -13 56.5 30-35 L L O

(135) RUTGERS [SU:1-4 | ATS:3-2] AT (136) ILLINOIS (-2 | 48.5) [SU:2-3 | ATS:1-4]OCTOBER 14, 2017 12:00 PM on BTN - MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF RUTGERS 21.8 17 38-154 [4.0] 30-16-149 [5.0] 13.9 25.8 17 36-152 [4.2] 29-15-212 [7.3] 14.1 -2 -4.0 ILLINOIS 17.8 17 32-125 [3.9] 29-15-178 [6.1] 17.0 29.6 23 42-182 [4.3] 33-20-248 [7.4] 14.5 -2 -11.8

V-TRENDS• RUTGERS is 11-3 UNDER(L5Y) - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per

play(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSRUTGERS RESULTS ILLINOIS RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU09-30 VS OHIO ST +28.5 54 0-56 L L O 10-07 at IOWA +16 42 16-45 L L O 09-23 at NEBRASKA +13 48 17-27 L W U 09-29 VS NEBRASKA + 6.5 47 6-28 L L U 09-16 VS MORGAN ST -41 47 65-0 W W O 09-15 at SOUTH FLORIDA +16.5 54.5 23-47 L L O 09-09 VS E MICHIGAN - 6 51 13-16 L L U 09-09 VS W KENTUCKY + 6 51.5 20-7 W W U 09-01 VS WASHINGTON +28 55 14-30 L W U 09-02 VS BALL ST - 4.5 55.5 24-21 W L U

College Football Matchups





37

(137) TEXAS TECH [SU:4-1 | ATS:4-0-1] AT (138) WEST VIRGINIA (-3 | 78) [SU:3-2 | ATS:2-3]OCTOBER 14, 2017 12:00 PM on ESPNU - MILAN PUSKAR STADIUM (MORGANTOWN, WV)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TEXAS TECH (24) 46.8 27 36-163 [4.5] 41-30-387 [9.5] 11.8 27.8 24 38-138 [3.7] 42-26-299 [7.1] 15.7 +9 +19.0 WEST VIRGINIA 43.8 28 40-214 [5.4] 41-26-364 [8.8] 13.2 26.4 19 41-215 [5.2] 31-16-227 [7.4] 16.7 +1 +17.4

West Virginia actually out-gained TCU by 102 yards, but 0-2 deficit in turnovers, along with defense that could not make necessary stops when needed was their undoing. With the way the Big 12 is shaping up, the winner of this confrontation stays in the chase to make the conference title game. The Mountaineers are 110th in run defense and while that is not the strength of the Texas Tech offense, if they can average 165 yards on the ground, that makes their No. 4 passing game that much stronger. For coach Kliff Kingsbury, a 5-1 start to the season would be a breath of fresh air and the Red Raiders are 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 2015.

V-TRENDS• TEXAS TECH is 15-4-2 ATS(L3Y) - VS Non-ranked team• WEST VIRGINIA is 2-9-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards per

point(CS)• TEXAS TECH is 11-2 OVER(L5Y) - Against elite rushing teams averaging more than 5.0 yards per

carry(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSTEXAS TECH (24) RESULTS WEST VIRGINIA RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 at KANSAS -14.5 76 65-19 W W O 10-07 at TCU +12.5 68 24-31 L W U 09-30 VS OKLAHOMA ST +11.5 85 34-41 L W U 09-23 at KANSAS -24 71 56-34 W L O 09-23 at HOUSTON + 7 68.5 27-24 W W U 09-16 VS DELAWARE ST -62 69 59-16 W L O 09-16 VS ARIZONA ST - 7 73.5 52-45 W P O 09-09 VS EAST CAROLINA -25 68 56-20 W W O 09-02 VS E WASHINGTON -12.5 87.5 56-10 W W U 09-03 ** VIRGINIA TECH + 5 54 24-31 L L O

(139) NC STATE (-12 | 56) [SU:5-1 | ATS:2-4] AT (140) PITTSBURGH [SU:2-4 | ATS:1-4-1]OCTOBER 14, 2017 12:00 PM - HEINZ FIELD (PITTSBURGH, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NC STATE (20) 35.5 25 38-166 [4.3] 38-27-305 [8.0] 13.3 23.7 18 30-91 [3.1] 38-22-296 [7.9] 16.3 +6 +11.8 PITTSBURGH 24.3 19 35-117 [3.3] 34-22-242 [7.2] 14.8 30.8 21 36-164 [4.5] 31-18-280 [9.1] 14.4 +3 -6.5

V-TRENDS• PITTSBURGH is 8-2 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - Against decent-scoring teams averaging 30 PPG or

more(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSNC STATE (20) RESULTS PITTSBURGH RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-05 VS LOUISVILLE + 3 67 39-25 W W U 10-07 at SYRACUSE + 3 63 24-27 L P U 09-30 VS SYRACUSE -14 62.5 33-25 W L U 09-30 VS RICE -20.5 51 42-10 W W O 09-23 at FLORIDA ST +11 51 27-21 W W U 09-23 at GEORGIA TECH + 7.5 55 17-35 L L U 09-16 VS FURMAN -36.5 58.5 49-16 W L O 09-16 VS OKLAHOMA ST +10.5 66.5 21-59 L L O 09-09 VS MARSHALL -21 55 37-20 W L O 09-09 at PENN ST +18.5 64.5 14-33 L L U 09-02 ** SOUTH CAROLINA - 8 49.5 28-35 L L O 09-02 VS YOUNGSTOWN ST -13 64.5 28-21 W L U




38



(141) MICHIGAN (-6.5 | 46) [SU:4-1 | ATS:2-3] AT (142) INDIANA [SU:3-2 | ATS:2-3]OCTOBER 14, 2017 12:00 PM on ABC - MEMORIAL STADIUM (BLOOMINGTON, IN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MICHIGAN (17) 27.2 19 42-168 [4.0] 29-16-218 [7.6] 14.2 13.6 12 33-87 [2.6] 25-11-126 [5.0] 15.7 -5 +13.6 INDIANA 29.6 22 41-151 [3.6] 39-24-260 [6.7] 13.9 25.6 18 42-152 [3.6] 33-18-205 [6.3] 13.9 -7 +4.0

Just the spread in this contest tells you about the lack of faith oddsmakers have in Michigan. Concerns about losing so much talent from a year ago has proven to true and the Wolverines offense is only averaging 4.0 YPC (84th nationally) and they have at two or more turnovers in four of the five outings and 12 overall. Indiana has as assortment of talented players on offense and defense to make this interesting, however, the seven turnovers in their last two games would derail any chance for an upset. The Hoosiers just shutout FCS opponent and is 4-21 ATS after outgaining foe by 175 or more total yards, yet is 4-2 ATS against Michigan since 2009, including the last two.

V-TRENDS• INDIANA is 16-9 ATS(L25G) at HOME - In October• MICHIGAN is 7-20 ATS(S2000) on ROAD - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3

yards per point(CS)• INDIANA is 11-3 OVER(S2000) - Before playing MICHIGAN ST

SEASON GAME LOGSMICHIGAN (17) RESULTS INDIANA RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS MICHIGAN ST -13 39.5 10-14 L L U 10-07 VS CHARLESTON S -28.5 59 27-0 W L U 09-23 at PURDUE -13.5 52.5 28-10 W W U 09-30 at PENN ST +20 61.5 14-45 L L U 09-16 VS AIR FORCE -23 52.5 29-13 W L U 09-23 VS GA SOUTHERN -21.5 50.5 52-17 W W O 09-09 VS CINCINNATI -31 49.5 36-14 W L O 09-09 at VIRGINIA - 3.5 56 34-17 W W U 09-02 ** FLORIDA - 3.5 46 33-17 W W O 08-31 VS OHIO ST +20 56 21-49 L L O

(143) EAST CAROLINA [SU:1-5 | ATS:1-5] AT (144) UCF (-33.5 | 73) [SU:4-0 | ATS:4-0]OCTOBER 14, 2017 7:00 PM on CBSSN - SPECTRUM STADIUM (ORLANDO, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF EAST CAROLINA 22.2 21 33-96 [2.9] 42-22-308 [7.3] 18.2 47.8 27 48-281 [5.9] 30-20-320 [10.5] 12.6 -7 -25.6UCF (22) 47.5 25 38-222 [5.8] 28-20-311 [11.0] 11.2 15.8 19 28-91 [3.2] 37-21-239 [6.5] 20.9 +8 +31.7

V-TRENDS• UCF is 10-2-1 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards

per point(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSEAST CAROLINA RESULTS UCF (22) RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS TEMPLE + 3.5 58.5 10-34 L L U 10-07 at CINCINNATI -14.5 53.5 51-23 W W O 09-30 VS SOUTH FLORIDA +21.5 71 31-61 L L O 09-30 VS MEMPHIS - 5.5 69 40-13 W W U 09-24 at CONNECTICUT + 5 63 41-38 W W O 09-23 at MARYLAND + 4.5 61.5 38-10 W W U 09-16 VS VIRGINIA TECH +27 60 17-64 L L O 08-31 VS FLORIDA INTL -17 56 61-17 W W O 09-09 at WEST VIRGINIA +25 68 20-56 L L O 09-02 VS JAMES MADISON + 1.5 68 14-34 L L U

(145) TULANE (-13.5 | 47.5) [SU:3-2 | ATS:4-1] AT (146) FLA INTERNATIONAL [SU:3-2 | ATS:1-4]OCTOBER 14, 2017 7:00 PM - FIU STADIUM (MIAMI, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TULANE 32.2 21 52-293 [5.7] 15-9-116 [7.7] 12.7 27.6 17 41-196 [4.8] 19-10-197 [10.5] 14.2 +8 +4.6 FLA INTERNATIONAL 18.8 20 35-138 [3.9] 31-19-233 [7.6] 19.7 28.8 22 39-170 [4.4] 31-21-237 [7.7] 14.1 -6 -10.0

V-TRENDS• FLORIDA INTL is 4-13-1 ATS(L5Y) - Non-conference games

SEASON GAME LOGSTULANE RESULTS FLA INTERNATIONAL RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS TULSA - 5.5 54 62-28 W W O 10-07 at MIDDLE TENN ST + 8 53.5 17-37 L L O 09-23 VS ARMY - 3 45.5 21-17 W W U 09-30 VS CHARLOTTE -10 47.5 30-29 W L O 09-16 at OKLAHOMA +33.5 52.5 14-56 L L O 09-23 at RICE + 1 53 13-7 W W U 09-09 at NAVY + 8 49.5 21-23 L W U 09-08 ** ALCORN ST -20 58.5 17-10 W L U 09-02 VS GRAMBLING ST -21.5 54 43-14 W W O 08-31 at UCF +17 56 17-61 L L O





39

(147) BOSTON COLLEGE [SU:2-4 | ATS:3-3] AT (148) LOUISVILLE (-21.5 | 57) [SU:4-2 | ATS:1-5]OCTOBER 14, 2017 12:20 PM - PAPA JOHNS CARDINAL STADIUM (LOUISVILLE, KY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BOSTON COLLEGE 16.3 18 42-158 [3.7] 35-18-164 [4.7] 19.8 28.0 19 46-234 [5.1] 31-17-182 [5.8] 14.9 -3 -11.7LOUISVILLE 37.5 28 34-194 [5.7] 42-26-363 [8.7] 14.9 27.0 18 34-113 [3.3] 31-19-239 [7.7] 13.0 -2 +10.5

V-TRENDS• BOSTON COLLEGE is 17-3 UNDER(L3Y) - VS Non-ranked team

SEASON GAME LOGSBOSTON COLLEGE RESULTS LOUISVILLE RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS VIRGINIA TECH +14 47.5 10-23 L W U 10-05 at NC STATE - 3 67 25-39 L L U 09-30 VS C MICHIGAN -10 51.5 28-8 W W U 09-30 VS MURRAY ST -50.5 63.5 55-10 W L O 09-23 at CLEMSON +33 53 7-34 L W U 09-23 VS KENT ST -41.5 57 42-3 W L U 09-16 VS NOTRE DAME +14 54 20-49 L L O 09-16 VS CLEMSON + 3.5 62 21-47 L L O 09-09 VS WAKE FOREST PK 46.5 10-34 L L U 09-09 at NORTH CAROLINA -11.5 65.5 47-35 W W O 09-01 at N ILLINOIS - 4 46.5 23-20 W L U 09-02 ** PURDUE -25.5 66 35-28 W L U

(149) KANSAS [SU:1-4 | ATS:1-4] AT (150) IOWA ST (-20.5 | 68) [SU:3-2 | ATS:4-1]OCTOBER 14, 2017 12:00 PM - JACK TRICE STADIUM (AMES, IA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KANSAS 29.6 22 35-161 [4.6] 45-25-297 [6.7] 15.5 44.8 24 41-203 [4.9] 34-23-306 [9.0] 11.4 -7 -15.2IOWA ST 33.8 22 29-107 [3.7] 38-24-310 [8.1] 12.3 26.0 23 35-130 [3.7] 37-24-276 [7.5] 15.6 +4 +7.8

V-TRENDS• IOWA ST is 12-3 UNDER(S2000) at HOME - Against poor passing defenses yielding more than 7.9

yards per attempt(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSKANSAS RESULTS IOWA ST RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS TEXAS TECH +14.5 76 19-65 L L O 10-07 at OKLAHOMA +30 62.5 38-31 W W O 09-23 VS WEST VIRGINIA +24 71 34-56 L W O 09-28 VS TEXAS + 5 62 7-17 L L U 09-16 at OHIO + 7 59 30-42 L L O 09-16 at AKRON -10 62.5 41-14 W W U 09-09 VS C MICHIGAN - 3 56 27-45 L L O 09-09 VS IOWA + 3.5 49.5 41-44 L W O 09-02 VS SE MISSOURI ST -29.5 42.5 38-16 W L O 09-02 VS N IOWA -10 51.5 42-24 W W O

(151) TCU (-4.5 | 53.5) [SU:5-0 | ATS:3-2] AT (152) KANSAS ST [SU:3-2 | ATS:2-3]OCTOBER 14, 2017 12:00 PM on FS1 - BILL SNYDER STADIUM (MANHATTAN, KS)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TCU (6) 44.4 25 43-220 [5.1] 31-21-259 [8.5] 10.8 19.6 19 35-104 [3.0] 32-16-256 [7.9] 18.4 +4 +24.8 KANSAS ST 36.8 18 40-211 [5.3] 21-12-194 [9.1] 11.0 20.0 20 36-130 [3.6] 36-21-226 [6.4] 17.8 +6 +16.8

TCU had a harder time than expected against West Virginia in Fort Worth, yet they did what was required and are the last unbeaten club in the Big 12. It is not an accident the Horned Frogs as the most physical team in the conference and QB Kenny Hill is playing up to the level most expected. Kansas State has fallen into a pattern that was not the case in their heyday of coach Bill Snyder’s first go-round as head coach, by losing tight games in the fourth quarter or beyond. Though he remains a good coach, Snyder is 78 and does not recruit the kinds of players he use to, though they remain well-coached. If K-State QB Jesse Ertz cannot go, that helps TCU.

V-TRENDS• KANSAS ST is 9-2 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.7

yards per carry(CS)• TCU is 3-10 ATS(L2Y) - As favorite• KANSAS ST is 8-3 OVER(L3Y) - Against prolific-scoring teams averaging 36 PPG or more(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSTCU (6) RESULTS KANSAS ST RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS WEST VIRGINIA -12.5 68 31-24 W L U 10-07 at TEXAS + 5 47.5 34-40 L L O 09-23 at OKLAHOMA ST + 9.5 66 44-31 W W O 09-30 VS BAYLOR -14.5 57 33-20 W L U 09-16 VS SMU -22 65.5 56-36 W L O 09-16 at VANDERBILT - 4 48.5 7-14 L L U 09-09 at ARKANSAS - 2.5 56 28-7 W W U 09-09 VS CHARLOTTE -32.5 56.5 55-7 W W O 09-02 VS JACKSON ST -59.5 69 63-0 W W U 09-02 VS C ARKANSAS -26 53 55-19 W W O




40



(153) OLD DOMINION [SU:2-3 | ATS:1-4] AT (154) MARSHALL (-15.5 | 53) [SU:4-1 | ATS:4-1]OCTOBER 14, 2017 2:30 PM on ESPN3 - JOAN C. EDWARDS STADIUM (HUNTINGTON, WV)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OLD DOMINION 19.8 15 34-142 [4.1] 30-14-164 [5.4] 15.5 34.6 25 50-234 [4.7] 30-17-216 [7.3] 13.0 -5 -14.8MARSHALL 24.8 20 34-133 [3.9] 36-22-241 [6.8] 15.1 17.4 18 34-127 [3.7] 34-18-220 [6.5] 19.9 -1 +7.4

V-TRENDS• MARSHALL is 11-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.35 yards per

carry(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSOLD DOMINION RESULTS MARSHALL RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS FL ATLANTIC + 5.5 57.5 28-58 L L O 10-07 at CHARLOTTE -14 52 14-3 W L U 09-23 at VIRGINIA TECH +29 53.5 0-38 L L U 09-30 at CINCINNATI + 3 53.5 38-21 W W O 09-16 VS NORTH CAROLINA +11 56.5 23-53 L L O 09-16 VS KENT ST -14 49.5 21-0 W W U 09-09 at MASSACHUSETTS - 3.5 60.5 17-7 W W U 09-09 at NC STATE +21 55 20-37 L W O 09-02 VS ALBANY -24 53.5 31-17 W L U 09-02 VS MIAMI OH + 4 48.5 31-26 W W O

(155) FLORIDA ST (-6.5 | 43.5) [SU:1-3 | ATS:0-4] AT (156) DUKE [SU:4-2 | ATS:4-2]OCTOBER 14, 2017 12:00 PM on ESPN2 - WALLACE WADE STADIUM (DURHAM, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF FLORIDA ST 18.5 17 35-124 [3.6] 30-17-203 [6.7] 17.7 23.5 18 35-115 [3.3] 32-19-219 [6.7] 14.2 -4 -5.0 DUKE 31.5 25 47-204 [4.4] 39-21-212 [5.5] 13.2 20.0 14 31-88 [2.9] 31-15-206 [6.7] 14.7 +4 +11.5

V-TRENDS• DUKE is 11-1 UNDER(L5Y) - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.35 yards per

carry(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSFLORIDA ST RESULTS DUKE RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS MIAMI FL + 2.5 46 20-24 L L U 10-07 at VIRGINIA - 1 53 21-28 L L U 09-30 at WAKE FOREST - 7.5 45.5 26-19 W L U 09-29 VS MIAMI FL + 5 55 6-31 L L U 09-23 VS NC STATE -11 51 21-27 L L U 09-23 at NORTH CAROLINA + 2.5 61 27-17 W W U 09-02 ** ALABAMA + 7.5 50.5 7-24 L L U 09-16 VS BAYLOR -10 61 34-20 W W U 09-09 VS NORTHWESTERN + 2 54.5 41-17 W W O 09-02 VS NC CENTRAL -36 49 60-7 W W O

(157) HOUSTON (-14 | 65) [SU:4-1 | ATS:3-2] AT (158) TULSA [SU:1-5 | ATS:2-4]OCTOBER 14, 2017 4:00 PM on ESPNN - CHAPMAN STADIUM (TULSA, OK)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF HOUSTON 27.2 23 35-165 [4.7] 37-27-264 [7.1] 15.8 16.2 21 34-154 [4.5] 42-25-246 [5.9] 24.7 +1 +11.0 TULSA 33.8 22 50-269 [5.4] 24-14-179 [7.5] 13.3 44.0 27 51-348 [6.8] 21-14-240 [11.6] 13.4 +3 -10.2

V-TRENDS• HOUSTON is 9-2 UNDER(L2Y) - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per

point(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSHOUSTON RESULTS TULSA RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS SMU -10 60 35-22 W W U 10-07 at TULANE + 5.5 54 28-62 L L O 09-30 at TEMPLE -11.5 44.5 20-13 W L U 09-30 VS NAVY + 7.5 70.5 21-31 L L U 09-23 VS TEXAS TECH - 7 68.5 24-27 L L U 09-23 VS NEW MEXICO - 7.5 69 13-16 L L U 09-16 VS RICE -23 53.5 38-3 W W U 09-16 at TOLEDO + 7 73.5 51-54 L W O 09-09 at ARIZONA - 1.5 67 19-16 W W U 09-09 VS LA LAFAYETTE -14 59 66-42 W W O 08-31 at OKLAHOMA ST +17.5 70 24-59 L L O






41

(159) MIDDLE TENN ST (-5 | 56) [SU:3-3 | ATS:3-3] AT (160) UAB [SU:3-2 | ATS:4-1]OCTOBER 14, 2017 6:30 PM - LEGION FIELD (BIRMINGHAM, AL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIDDLE TENN ST 20.0 20 29-113 [3.9] 37-24-257 [6.9] 18.5 25.5 20 41-126 [3.1] 31-20-215 [6.9] 13.4 -8 -5.5 UAB 33.0 21 45-203 [4.5] 26-15-189 [7.3] 11.9 29.8 21 41-175 [4.3] 29-15-185 [6.4] 12.1 0 +3.2

V-TRENDS• UAB is 18-4-1 OVER(L25G) - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per

point(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSMIDDLE TENN ST RESULTS UAB RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS FLORIDA INTL - 8 53.5 37-17 W W O 10-07 VS LOUISIANA TECH + 9.5 64 23-22 W W U 09-30 at FL ATLANTIC + 2 60 20-38 L L U 09-23 at NORTH TEXAS +10.5 60 43-46 L W O 09-23 VS BOWLING GREEN - 7.5 54 24-13 W W U 09-16 VS COASTAL CAROLINA PK 53 30-23 W W P 09-16 at MINNESOTA +14 50 3-34 L L U 09-09 at BALL ST +13 52.5 31-51 L L O 09-09 at SYRACUSE + 7.5 72 30-23 W W U 09-02 VS ALABAMA A&M -27.5 60.5 38-7 W W U 09-02 VS VANDERBILT + 2.5 58.5 6-28 L L U

(161) GEORGIA ST [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2] AT (162) LA MONROE (-7 | 57) [SU:3-2 | ATS:4-1]OCTOBER 14, 2017 5:00 PM on ESPN3 - MALONE STADIUM (MONROE, LA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF GEORGIA ST 16.2 20 39-102 [2.6] 30-20-229 [7.5] 20.4 23.5 18 33-156 [4.7] 27-17-231 [8.5] 16.5 -8 -7.3 LA MONROE 39.6 21 42-203 [4.8] 31-19-254 [8.2] 11.5 37.0 22 42-225 [5.3] 31-17-235 [7.5] 12.4 +2 +2.6

V-TRENDS• GEORGIA ST is 10-1 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - In October

SEASON GAME LOGSGEORGIA ST RESULTS LA MONROE RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 at COASTAL CAROLINA PK 52.5 27-21 W W U 10-07 at TEXAS ST - 5.5 54.5 45-27 W W O 09-23 at CHARLOTTE - 1 49.5 28-0 W W U 09-30 VS COASTAL CAROLINA - 7 54.5 51-43 W W O 09-16 at PENN ST +37 54.5 0-56 L L O 09-23 at LA LAFAYETTE + 4 59 56-50 W W O 08-31 VS TENNESSEE ST -14.5 55 10-17 L L U 09-16 VS SOUTHERN MISS + 7 54.5 17-28 L L U 08-31 at MEMPHIS +25.5 64 29-37 L W O

(163) CHARLOTTE [SU:0-6 | ATS:2-4] AT (164) W KENTUCKY (-17 | 46.5) [SU:3-2 | ATS:0-4-1]OCTOBER 14, 2017 4:30 PM - LT SMITH STADIUM (BOWLING GREEN, KY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CHARLOTTE 12.8 16 36-177 [4.9] 28-13-135 [4.9] 24.4 31.0 22 42-193 [4.5] 29-19-233 [8.1] 13.7 -6 -18.2W KENTUCKY 21.6 19 32-77 [2.4] 38-25-251 [6.6] 15.2 19.0 19 34-122 [3.6] 34-19-225 [6.6] 18.3 0 +2.6

V-TRENDS• W KENTUCKY is 11-2 OVER(L3Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards

per carry(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSCHARLOTTE RESULTS W KENTUCKY RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS MARSHALL +14 52 3-14 L W U 10-07 at UTEP -16 52 15-14 W L U 09-30 at FLORIDA INTL +10 47.5 29-30 L W O 09-23 VS BALL ST -12 50 33-21 W P O 09-23 VS GEORGIA ST + 1 49.5 0-28 L L U 09-16 VS LOUISIANA TECH - 4 61.5 22-23 L L U 09-16 VS N CAROLINA A&T -11.5 58.5 31-35 L L O 09-09 at ILLINOIS - 6 51.5 7-20 L L U 09-09 at KANSAS ST +32.5 56.5 7-55 L L O 09-02 VS E KENTUCKY -39 67 31-17 W L U 09-01 at E MICHIGAN +14 59 7-24 L L U




42



(165) WYOMING [SU:3-2 | ATS:2-3] AT (166) UTAH ST (-3 | 49) [SU:3-3 | ATS:3-3]OCTOBER 14, 2017 4:30 PM - ROMNEY STADIUM (LOGAN, UT)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WYOMING 23.2 15 31-100 [3.3] 28-16-182 [6.4] 12.2 20.8 20 50-185 [3.7] 23-14-161 [7.0] 16.6 +7 +2.4 UTAH ST 31.0 19 39-146 [3.7] 36-21-230 [6.4] 12.1 29.8 21 46-195 [4.2] 27-15-211 [7.8] 13.6 +5 +1.2

V-TRENDS• UTAH ST is 11-3 OVER(L3Y) - As favorite

SEASON GAME LOGSWYOMING RESULTS UTAH ST RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU09-30 VS TEXAS ST -16.5 45 45-10 W W O 10-07 VS COLORADO ST + 9.5 66.5 14-27 L L U 09-23 VS HAWAII - 5.5 54 28-21 W W U 09-29 VS BYU + 1.5 50 40-24 W W O 09-16 VS OREGON +13.5 66.5 13-49 L L U 09-23 at SAN JOSE ST - 1.5 55.5 61-10 W W O 09-09 VS GARDNER WEBB -38.5 58.5 27-0 W L U 09-16 at WAKE FOREST +14.5 50.5 10-46 L L O 09-02 at IOWA +12.5 51 3-24 L L U 09-07 VS IDAHO ST -35 61 51-13 W W O 09-01 at WISCONSIN +27 52.5 10-59 L L O

(167) UNLV [SU:2-3 | ATS:3-2] AT (168) AIR FORCE (-7.5 | 68.5) [SU:1-4 | ATS:3-2]OCTOBER 14, 2017 2:00 PM - FALCON STADIUM (COLORADO SPRINGS, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UNLV 31.2 20 44-265 [6.1] 19-10-166 [8.7] 13.8 33.4 26 43-214 [5.0] 35-22-272 [7.7] 14.6 +3 -2.2 AIR FORCE 36.4 23 59-285 [4.8] 13-6-145 [11.3] 11.8 32.2 16 42-253 [6.1] 16-8-124 [7.9] 11.7 -3 +4.2

V-TRENDS• UNLV is 11-4 OVER(L3Y) - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.35 yards per

carry(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSUNLV RESULTS AIR FORCE RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS SAN DIEGO ST + 8.5 56.5 10-41 L L U 10-07 at NAVY + 9 54 45-48 L W O 09-30 VS SAN JOSE ST -16.5 62.5 41-13 W W U 09-30 at NEW MEXICO - 3 51 38-56 L L O 09-23 at OHIO ST +40 67 21-54 L W O 09-23 VS SAN DIEGO ST - 1 49.5 24-28 L L O 09-09 at IDAHO + 4 69.5 44-16 W W U 09-16 at MICHIGAN +23 52.5 13-29 L W U 09-02 VS HOWARD -45 66.5 40-43 L L O 09-02 VS VMI -34.5 55 62-0 W W O

(169) NEVADA [SU:1-5 | ATS:2-4] AT (170) COLORADO ST (-24.5 | 65.5) [SU:4-2 | ATS:4-2]OCTOBER 14, 2017 10:15 PM on ESPN2 - CSU STADIUM (FORT COLLINS, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEVADA 22.5 20 32-141 [4.4] 37-21-223 [6.1] 16.2 34.2 24 42-160 [3.8] 35-24-316 [8.9] 13.9 -5 -11.7COLORADO ST 33.3 27 40-194 [4.8] 36-23-312 [8.6] 15.2 21.7 20 30-135 [4.4] 37-23-256 [6.9] 18.0 +1 +11.6

V-TRENDS• COLORADO ST is 11-0 ATS(L2Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards

per carry(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSNEVADA RESULTS COLORADO ST RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS HAWAII + 4 63.5 35-21 W W U 10-07 at UTAH ST - 9.5 66.5 27-14 W W U 09-30 at FRESNO ST + 9 59.5 21-41 L L O 09-30 at HAWAII - 7 64.5 51-21 W W O 09-23 at WASHINGTON ST +28.5 65.5 7-45 L L U 09-16 at ALABAMA +31 55.5 23-41 L W O 09-16 VS IDAHO ST -32.5 58.5 28-30 L L U 09-09 VS ABILENE CHRISTIAN -42.5 66.5 38-10 W L U 09-09 VS TOLEDO +11 69 24-37 L L U 09-01 ** COLORADO + 3 68.5 3-17 L L U 09-02 at NORTHWESTERN +24 60 20-31 L W U 08-26 VS OREGON ST - 4 58.5 58-27 W W O





43

College Football Matchups(171) APPALACHIAN ST (-13 | 48.5) [SU:3-2 | ATS:2-3] AT (172) IDAHO [SU:2-3 | ATS:3-2]

OCTOBER 14, 2017 5:00 PM on ESPN3 - COWAN SPECTRUM AT KIBBIE DOME (MOSCOW, ID)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF APPALACHIAN ST 29.6 20 36-201 [5.5] 31-18-221 [7.1] 14.3 20.4 18 39-153 [3.9] 30-16-195 [6.5] 17.1 +3 +9.2 IDAHO 23.4 17 38-152 [4.0] 29-18-215 [7.4] 15.7 26.2 18 43-183 [4.3] 25-14-164 [6.5] 13.2 -5 -2.8

V-TRENDS• IDAHO is 2-12-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against strong offensive teams averaging more than 6.0 yards per

play(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSAPPALACHIAN ST RESULTS IDAHO RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS NEW MEXICO ST -13.5 56 45-31 W W O 10-07 VS LA LAFAYETTE - 6 61.5 16-21 L L U 09-23 VS WAKE FOREST + 5.5 48.5 19-20 L W U 09-23 at S ALABAMA + 6.5 53 29-23 W W U 09-16 at TEXAS ST -21.5 49.5 20-13 W L U 09-16 at W MICHIGAN +17 55 28-37 L W O 09-09 VS SAVANNAH ST -49 56.5 54-7 W L O 09-09 VS UNLV - 4 69.5 16-44 L L U 09-02 at GEORGIA +11.5 46.5 10-31 L L U 08-31 VS SACRAMENTO ST -21 65 28-6 W W U

(173) UTAH [SU:4-1 | ATS:4-0-1] AT (174) USC (-12.5 | 54.5) [SU:5-1 | ATS:1-5]OCTOBER 14, 2017 8:00 PM on ABC - LOS ANGELES MEMORIAL COLISEUM (LOS ANGELES, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UTAH 32.0 24 39-161 [4.1] 36-24-270 [7.5] 13.5 18.4 16 32-108 [3.3] 34-18-205 [6.0] 17.0 +4 +13.6 USC (13) 35.5 23 37-182 [4.9] 35-23-286 [8.1] 13.2 23.2 19 35-143 [4.1] 37-20-234 [6.3] 16.2 +2 +12.3

The Pac-12 South has five teams with one defeat in league play and the loser of this one will have two and faces uphill battle. Utah fell to Stanford at home and while senior QB Troy Williams did not play poorly in loss, he is not the playmaker regular starter Tyler Huntley is, which is why the Utes really need him to return if possible from injury this week. USC’s thumping of Oregon State did nothing to help us learn anything about the Trojans. However, once again USC had multiple turnovers, giving then 13 in six games and that could spell trouble versus Utah. Look for the ability to run the ball and stop the run to be largest factor besides turnovers in outcome.

V-TRENDS• UTAH is 10-2 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 7

points per game(CS)• USC is 4-8 ATS(L3Y) - Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 22 PPG(CS)• USC is 11-2 UNDER(L2Y) - Conference games

SEASON GAME LOGSUTAH RESULTS USC (13) RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS STANFORD + 3 51.5 20-23 L P U 10-07 VS OREGON ST -33 56 38-10 W L U 09-22 at ARIZONA - 4 62 30-24 W W U 09-29 at WASHINGTON ST - 4.5 59 27-30 L L U 09-16 VS SAN JOSE ST -27.5 59 54-16 W W O 09-23 at CALIFORNIA -17 61 30-20 W L U 09-09 at BYU - 3.5 45 19-13 W W U 09-16 VS TEXAS -16.5 67.5 27-24 W L U 08-31 VS N DAKOTA -20.5 60 37-16 W W U 09-09 VS STANFORD - 4.5 54.5 42-24 W W O 09-02 VS W MICHIGAN -28 59.5 49-31 W L O

(175) COLORADO (-12 | 55.5) [SU:3-3 | ATS:2-4] AT (176) OREGON ST [SU:1-5 | ATS:1-5]OCTOBER 14, 2017 4:00 PM on PAC12 - RESER STADIUM (CORVALLIS, OR)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF COLORADO 28.3 24 43-176 [4.1] 34-22-264 [7.7] 15.5 22.7 20 38-181 [4.8] 30-17-219 [7.2] 17.6 +2 +5.6 OREGON ST 19.3 17 31-129 [4.2] 31-19-192 [6.1] 16.6 45.0 27 41-199 [4.8] 34-23-295 [8.7] 11.0 -7 -25.7

V-TRENDS• COLORADO is 9-3 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - All Games

SEASON GAME LOGSCOLORADO RESULTS OREGON ST RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS ARIZONA - 6.5 60 42-45 L L O 10-07 at USC +33 56 10-38 L W U 09-30 at UCLA + 7.5 67 23-27 L W U 09-30 VS WASHINGTON +26.5 59 7-42 L L U 09-23 VS WASHINGTON +11.5 55 10-37 L L U 09-16 at WASHINGTON ST +17.5 65 23-52 L L O 09-16 VS N COLORADO -38 55 41-21 W L O 09-09 VS MINNESOTA - 2.5 49.5 14-48 L L O 09-09 VS TEXAS ST -36.5 55.5 37-3 W L U 09-02 VS PORTLAND ST -26.5 60 35-32 W L O 09-01 ** COLORADO ST - 3 68.5 17-3 W W U 08-26 at COLORADO ST + 4 58.5 27-58 L L O




44



College Football Matchups(177) UCLA [SU:3-2 | ATS:1-4] AT (178) ARIZONA (-1.5 | 79) [SU:3-2 | ATS:3-2]

OCTOBER 14, 2017 9:00 PM on PAC12 - ARIZONA STADIUM (TUCSON, AZ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UCLA 41.4 27 27-115 [4.2] 50-32-436 [8.8] 13.3 39.2 24 45-284 [6.3] 34-18-222 [6.5] 12.9 -6 +2.2 ARIZONA 42.0 24 47-322 [6.8] 26-17-175 [6.8] 11.8 26.2 22 38-154 [4.1] 36-21-257 [7.1] 15.7 0 +15.8

V-TRENDS• ARIZONA is 3-8 ATS(L2Y) - Conference games

SEASON GAME LOGSUCLA RESULTS ARIZONA RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU09-30 VS COLORADO - 7.5 67 27-23 W L U 10-07 at COLORADO + 6.5 60 45-42 W W O 09-23 at STANFORD + 7 60 34-58 L L O 09-22 VS UTAH + 4 62 24-30 L L U 09-16 at MEMPHIS - 3 71 45-48 L L O 09-15 at UTEP -24.5 58.5 63-16 W W O 09-09 VS HAWAII -23.5 62 56-23 W W O 09-09 VS HOUSTON + 1.5 67 16-19 L L U 09-03 VS TEXAS A&M - 7 60.5 45-44 W L O 09-02 VS N ARIZONA -24.5 70 62-24 W W O

(179) VANDERBILT [SU:3-3 | ATS:2-4] AT (180) OLE MISS (-3 | 55.5) [SU:2-3 | ATS:0-4-1]OCTOBER 14, 2017 3:30 PM on SECN - VAUGHT HEMINGWAY STADIUM (OXFORD, MS)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF VANDERBILT 20.3 12 27-77 [2.9] 28-16-200 [7.1] 13.6 25.8 20 44-241 [5.5] 24-13-140 [5.7] 14.8 +3 -5.5 OLE MISS 26.8 20 26-76 [2.9] 40-27-358 [8.9] 16.2 37.4 23 45-249 [5.6] 28-16-208 [7.4] 12.2 -4 -10.6

V-TRENDS• VANDERBILT is 11-3 UNDER(L3Y) on ROAD - All Games

SEASON GAME LOGSVANDERBILT RESULTS OLE MISS RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS GEORGIA +16.5 39.5 14-45 L L O 10-07 at AUBURN +21 55 23-44 L P O 09-30 at FLORIDA + 9.5 38.5 24-38 L L O 09-30 at ALABAMA +30 57 3-66 L L O 09-23 VS ALABAMA +19.5 43.5 0-59 L L O 09-16 at CALIFORNIA - 6 69.5 16-27 L L U 09-16 VS KANSAS ST + 4 48.5 14-7 W W U 09-09 VS TENNESSEE-MARTIN -33.5 62.5 45-23 W L O 09-09 VS ALABAMA A&M -48 55.5 42-0 W L U 09-02 VS S ALABAMA -21.5 59.5 47-27 W L O 09-02 at MIDDLE TENN ST - 2.5 58.5 28-6 W W U

(181) OKLAHOMA (-7.5 | 63) [SU:4-1 | ATS:3-2] VS (182) TEXAS [SU:3-2 | ATS:4-1]OCTOBER 14, 2017 3:30 PM on ESPN - COTTON BOWL (DALLAS, TX)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OKLAHOMA (12) 44.6 27 36-203 [5.6] 31-23-384 [12.5] 13.2 23.2 19 37-124 [3.4] 30-19-232 [7.7] 15.3 -1 +21.4 TEXAS 35.6 25 43-176 [4.1] 40-24-288 [7.2] 13.0 23.8 17 31-105 [3.4] 33-19-249 [7.5] 14.9 0 +11.8

As has been the case in the Red River Shootout the last several years, the urgency level based on the season will be high. Oklahoma, off stunning upset by Iowa State, could be all but eliminated in the Big 12 with another setback. Texas on the other hand would like nothing better to ruin the Sooners plans and a victory would take them to 3-0 in the conference and wash away that Maryland loss. The Longhorns have the passing offense to attack Oklahoma defense which has surrendered unfathomable 831 yards in their last two contests. The underdog is on 4-0 ATS run and once again the Longhorns will be in that role. Big test for two first-year coaches in crucial rivalry skirmish.

V-TRENDS• TEXAS is 10-3-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.9 yards per

attempt(CS)• OKLAHOMA is 9-16 ATS(L25G) at NEUTRAL SITE - As favorite• TEXAS is 11-1 UNDER(L5Y) - Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSOKLAHOMA (12) RESULTS TEXAS RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS IOWA ST -30 62.5 31-38 L L O 10-07 VS KANSAS ST - 5 47.5 40-34 W W O 09-23 at BAYLOR -28 62 49-41 W L O 09-28 at IOWA ST - 5 62 17-7 W W U 09-16 VS TULANE -33.5 52.5 56-14 W W O 09-16 at USC +16.5 67.5 24-27 L W U 09-09 at OHIO ST + 7.5 64 31-16 W W U 09-09 VS SAN JOSE ST -26.5 63.5 56-0 W W U 09-02 VS UTEP -42 64 56-7 W W U 09-02 VS MARYLAND -18.5 57 41-51 L L O





45

College Football Matchups(183) OHIO ST (-24 | 56.5) [SU:5-1 | ATS:3-3] AT (184) NEBRASKA [SU:3-3 | ATS:2-4]

OCTOBER 14, 2017 7:30 PM on FS1 - MEMORIAL STADIUM (LINCOLN, NE)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OHIO ST (9) 45.8 28 41-248 [6.1] 36-23-320 [8.9] 12.4 15.7 17 41-120 [2.9] 28-16-170 [6.0] 18.5 +6 +30.1 NEBRASKA 27.8 20 36-148 [4.2] 34-18-236 [6.9] 13.8 26.7 19 34-147 [4.3] 31-20-209 [6.7] 13.3 -3 +1.1

After playing well for a half versus Wisconsin, Nebraska ended up conceding 353 rushing yards to the Badgers, which for long-time alumni is a heart-breaking. Being a 20+ point home underdog against Ohio State shows precisely how far this program has fallen, no longer able to recruit the finest players in the country. That is not the case for the Buckeyes and while the Oklahoma loss was a black eye, it forced Urban Meyer and his staff to push his squad harder and make them understand showing up was not enough. With QB Tanner Lee tossing passes that be picked off when pressured, you know what Ohio State defensive game plan will be. The Cornhuskers are 0-6 ATS vs. teams scoring 34 or more PPG.

V-TRENDS• OHIO ST is 33-16-1 ATS(L50G) on ROAD - Conference games• NEBRASKA is 3-11 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards

per point(CS)• NEBRASKA is 9-2 OVER(L5Y) - Against elite defensive teams yielding less than 4.4 yards per

play(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSOHIO ST (9) RESULTS NEBRASKA RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS MARYLAND -30.5 61.5 62-14 W W O 10-07 VS WISCONSIN +12.5 47 17-38 L L O 09-30 at RUTGERS -28.5 54 56-0 W W O 09-29 at ILLINOIS - 6.5 47 28-6 W W U 09-23 VS UNLV -40 67 54-21 W L O 09-23 VS RUTGERS -13 48 27-17 W L U 09-16 VS ARMY -32.5 55 38-7 W L U 09-16 VS N ILLINOIS -10.5 56.5 17-21 L L U 09-09 VS OKLAHOMA - 7.5 64 16-31 L L U 09-09 at OREGON +10.5 67.5 35-42 L W O 08-31 at INDIANA -20 56 49-21 W W O 09-02 VS ARKANSAS ST -14.5 52.5 43-36 W L O

(185) BYU [SU:1-5 | ATS:0-6] AT (186) MISSISSIPPI ST (-22.5 | 46) [SU:3-2 | ATS:3-2]OCTOBER 14, 2017 12:00 PM on SECN - DAVIS WADE STADIUM (STARKVILLE, MS)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BYU 11.7 12 28-98 [3.5] 29-15-156 [5.3] 21.7 26.0 20 45-167 [3.7] 27-18-201 [7.5] 14.2 -10 -14.3MISSISSIPPI ST 31.2 22 44-253 [5.7] 30-15-169 [5.7] 13.5 21.6 13 40-150 [3.8] 19-10-157 [8.2] 14.2 +1 +9.6

V-TRENDS• MISSISSIPPI ST is 11-1 UNDER(S2000) - Against poor teams with 20%+ winning pct(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSBYU RESULTS MISSISSIPPI ST RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-06 VS BOISE ST + 7.5 46.5 7-24 L L U 09-30 at AUBURN + 7 52 10-49 L L O 09-29 at UTAH ST - 1.5 50 24-40 L L O 09-23 at GEORGIA + 2.5 49.5 3-31 L L U 09-16 VS WISCONSIN +14 43 6-40 L L O 09-16 VS LSU + 7.5 53.5 37-7 W W U 09-09 VS UTAH + 3.5 45 13-19 L L U 09-09 at LOUISIANA TECH -10 66.5 57-21 W W O 09-02 ** LSU +14 47 0-27 L L U 09-02 VS CHARLESTON S -21.5 62.5 49-0 W W U 08-26 VS PORTLAND ST -37.5 61 20-6 W L U



46



College Football Matchups(187) ARKANSAS [SU:2-3 | ATS:0-5] AT (188) ALABAMA (-30 | 55.5) [SU:6-0 | ATS:3-3]OCTOBER 14, 2017 7:15 PM on ESPN - BRYANT-DENNY STADIUM (TUSCALOOSA, AL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ARKANSAS 32.6 22 41-185 [4.5] 27-15-207 [7.7] 12.0 31.4 18 33-146 [4.4] 31-18-204 [6.5] 11.1 -2 +1.2 ALABAMA (1) 43.0 24 47-302 [6.4] 23-15-181 [7.8] 11.2 10.3 14 28-73 [2.6] 32-18-185 [5.8] 25.0 +12 +32.7

With Alabama finally be pushed and not coming close to covering against Texas A&M, Nick Saban sort of actually has a reason to complain to his team this week. Off a disturbing blowout at South Carolina, the beginning of the end for Bret Bielema may be at hand with the Crimson Tide and Auburn the next two weeks at Arkansas. The Razorbacks are merely average offensively and they have been gashed for 100 points in two SEC games. Probably most troubling is the Hogs look to be going thru the motions. Arkansas has covered two of three vs. Bama the last three seasons, nevertheless, nobody would be shocked if they saw results like from 2013-14, when the Tide rolled 52-0 in both games.

V-TRENDS• ARKANSAS is 9-3 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against high-scoring teams averaging 32 PPG or more(CS)• ALABAMA is 3-12 ATS(S2000) at HOME - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 29

PPG(CS)• ARKANSAS is 14-5 OVER(S2000) on ROAD - Against elite rushing teams averaging more than 5.0

yards per carry(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSARKANSAS RESULTS ALABAMA (1) RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 at SOUTH CAROLINA - 3.5 45 22-48 L L O 10-07 at TEXAS A&M -25.5 56.5 27-19 W L U 09-30 VS NEW MEXICO ST -18.5 61 42-24 W L O 09-30 VS MISSISSIPPI -30 57 66-3 W W O 09-23 ** TEXAS A&M + 1.5 58 43-50 L L O 09-23 at VANDERBILT -19.5 43.5 59-0 W W O 09-09 VS TCU + 2.5 56 7-28 L L U 09-16 VS COLORADO ST -31 55.5 41-23 W L O 08-31 VS FLORIDA A&M -45.5 61 49-7 W L U 09-09 VS FRESNO ST -42 55 41-10 W L U 09-02 ** FLORIDA ST - 7.5 50.5 24-7 W W U

(189) BAYLOR [SU:0-5 | ATS:2-3] AT (190) OKLAHOMA ST (-25.5 | 70.5) [SU:4-1 | ATS:3-2]OCTOBER 14, 2017 3:30 PM on FS1 - BOONE PICKENS STADIUM (STILLWATER, OK)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BAYLOR 27.2 17 31-118 [3.8] 37-19-286 [7.7] 14.9 36.2 23 44-234 [5.3] 30-20-239 [7.9] 13.1 -5 -9.0 OKLAHOMA ST (14) 46.8 28 37-184 [5.0] 37-24-399 [10.8] 12.5 26.0 22 40-136 [3.4] 35-21-234 [6.6] 14.2 -1 +20.8

V-TRENDS• OKLAHOMA ST is 11-1 OVER(S2000) at HOME - Against pathetic defensive teams allowing more

than 35 PPG(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSBAYLOR RESULTS OKLAHOMA ST (14) RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU09-30 at KANSAS ST +14.5 57 20-33 L W U 09-30 at TEXAS TECH -11.5 85 41-34 W L U 09-23 VS OKLAHOMA +28 62 41-49 L W O 09-23 VS TCU - 9.5 66 31-44 L L O 09-16 at DUKE +10 61 20-34 L L U 09-16 at PITTSBURGH -10.5 66.5 59-21 W W O 09-09 VS TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO -11 56 10-17 L L U 09-08 at S ALABAMA -28 67.5 44-7 W W U 09-02 VS LIBERTY -32 58 45-48 L L O 08-31 VS TULSA -17.5 70 59-24 W W O

(191) MISSOURI [SU:1-4 | ATS:1-4] AT (192) GEORGIA (-30.5 | 57) [SU:6-0 | ATS:5-1]OCTOBER 14, 2017 7:30 PM on SECN - SANFORD STADIUM (ATHENS, GA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MISSOURI 27.2 22 33-176 [5.3] 35-18-294 [8.4] 17.3 40.0 22 44-193 [4.4] 31-21-266 [8.6] 11.5 -10 -12.8GEORGIA (4) 35.0 20 49-268 [5.5] 18-10-146 [8.2] 11.8 10.0 13 30-86 [2.9] 32-18-157 [4.8] 24.3 +1 +25.0

V-TRENDS• GEORGIA is 2-8 ATS(S2000) - Against pathetic defensive teams allowing more than 35 PPG(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSMISSOURI RESULTS GEORGIA (4) RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 at KENTUCKY + 8.5 58.5 34-40 L W O 10-07 at VANDERBILT -16.5 39.5 45-14 W W O 09-23 VS AUBURN +18.5 61 14-51 L L O 09-30 at TENNESSEE -10 47 41-0 W W U 09-16 VS PURDUE - 5.5 75.5 3-35 L L U 09-23 VS MISSISSIPPI ST - 2.5 49.5 31-3 W W U 09-09 VS SOUTH CAROLINA - 2.5 71 13-31 L L U 09-16 VS SAMFORD -33.5 57 42-14 W L U 09-02 VS MISSOURI ST -36.5 63 72-43 W L O 09-09 at NOTRE DAME + 5.5 57 20-19 W W U 09-02 VS APPALACHIAN ST -11.5 46.5 31-10 W W U





47

College Football Matchups(193) NAVY [SU:5-0 | ATS:3-2] AT (194) MEMPHIS (-4 | 75) [SU:4-1 | ATS:2-3]

OCTOBER 14, 2017 3:45 PM on ESPNU - LIBERTY BOWL (MEMPHIS, TN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NAVY (25) 37.2 23 63-414 [6.5] 8-3-94 [11.5] 13.7 27.6 18 37-172 [4.6] 25-16-227 [8.9] 14.5 -1 +9.6 MEMPHIS 42.4 25 36-193 [5.3] 41-24-317 [7.8] 12.0 35.2 26 41-187 [4.6] 42-25-319 [7.7] 14.4 +3 +7.2

V-TRENDS• NAVY is 9-2 ATS(S2000) on ROAD - Against pathetic defensive teams allowing more than 35

PPG(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSNAVY (25) RESULTS MEMPHIS RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS AIR FORCE - 9 54 48-45 W L O 10-06 at CONNECTICUT -16 76 70-31 W W O 09-30 at TULSA - 7.5 70.5 31-21 W W U 09-30 at UCF + 5.5 69 13-40 L L U 09-23 VS CINCINNATI - 7.5 52 42-32 W W O 09-23 VS S ILLINOIS -29.5 73.5 44-31 W L O 09-09 VS TULANE - 8 49.5 23-21 W L U 09-16 VS UCLA + 3 71 48-45 W W O 09-01 at FL ATLANTIC - 8.5 64.5 42-19 W W U 08-31 VS LA MONROE -25.5 64 37-29 W L O

(195) NEW MEXICO ST (-8 | 59.5) [SU:2-4 | ATS:5-1] AT (196) GEORGIA SOUTHERN [SU:0-4 | ATS:1-3]OCTOBER 14, 2017 6:00 PM on ESPN3 - PAULSON STADIUM (STATESBORO, GA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW MEXICO ST 30.2 22 26-111 [4.2] 48-30-352 [7.3] 15.3 32.2 21 40-192 [4.8] 32-18-215 [6.8] 12.6 -1 -2.0 GA SOUTHERN 15.2 17 55-219 [4.0] 16-8-98 [6.1] 20.9 39.5 19 42-211 [5.0] 24-13-203 [8.5] 10.5 -2 -24.3

V-TRENDS• NEW MEXICO ST is 11-2 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than

4.35 yards per carry(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSNEW MEXICO ST RESULTS GEORGIA SOUTHERN RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 at APPALACHIAN ST +13.5 56 31-45 L L O 10-04 VS ARKANSAS ST + 7.5 55 25-43 L L O 09-30 at ARKANSAS +18.5 61 24-42 L W O 09-23 at INDIANA +21.5 50.5 17-52 L L O 09-23 VS UTEP -17 59 41-14 W W U 09-09 VS NEW HAMPSHIRE - 7.5 54.5 12-22 L L U 09-16 VS TROY + 9.5 60.5 24-27 L W U 09-02 at AUBURN +35 58 7-41 L W U 09-09 at NEW MEXICO + 7.5 68.5 30-28 W W U 08-31 at ARIZONA ST +23.5 70 31-37 L W U

(197) UTEP [SU:0-6 | ATS:2-4] AT (198) SOUTHERN MISS (-23 | 52.5) [SU:3-2 | ATS:4-1]OCTOBER 14, 2017 7:00 PM - ROBERTS STADIUM (HATTIESBURG, MS)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UTEP 14.3 13 28-94 [3.4] 29-14-137 [4.8] 16.2 40.2 24 44-236 [5.4] 27-19-229 [8.4] 11.6 -4 -25.9SOUTHERN MISS 29.8 21 38-185 [4.9] 33-19-264 [7.9] 15.1 22.6 17 35-127 [3.6] 31-17-220 [7.0] 15.4 0 +7.2

V-TRENDS• SOUTHERN MISS is 3-8 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against weak defensive teams allowing more than

31.5 PPG(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSUTEP RESULTS SOUTHERN MISS RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS W KENTUCKY +16 52 14-15 L W U 10-07 at TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO +10 49 31-29 W W O 09-30 at ARMY +22.5 49.5 21-35 L W O 09-30 VS NORTH TEXAS - 7.5 56 28-43 L L O 09-23 at NEW MEXICO ST +17 59 14-41 L L U 09-16 at LA MONROE - 7 54.5 28-17 W W U 09-15 VS ARIZONA +24.5 58.5 16-63 L L O 09-09 VS SOUTHERN U -31 66 45-0 W W U 09-09 VS RICE - 1.5 55 14-31 L L U 09-02 VS KENTUCKY + 9 57 17-24 L W U 09-02 at OKLAHOMA +42 64 7-56 L L U




48



College Football Matchups(199) COASTAL CAROLINA [SU:1-4 | ATS:1-4] AT (200) ARKANSAS ST (-19 | 62.5) [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2]

OCTOBER 14, 2017 7:00 PM on ESPN3 - CENTENNIAL BANK STADIUM (JONESBORO, AR)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF C CAROLINA 27.0 19 40-191 [4.8] 24-13-177 [7.3] 13.6 37.6 20 38-161 [4.2] 26-17-225 [8.7] 10.3 -6 -10.6ARKANSAS ST 37.0 24 30-107 [3.5] 43-27-343 [8.0] 12.2 28.8 23 48-232 [4.8] 27-15-222 [8.2] 15.8 0 +8.2

V-TRENDS• ARKANSAS ST is 13-1-1 OVER(L5Y) - Against pathetic defensive teams allowing more than 35

PPG(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSCOASTAL CAROLINA RESULTS ARKANSAS ST RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS GEORGIA ST PK 52.5 21-27 L L U 10-04 at GEORGIA SOUTHERN - 7.5 55 43-25 W W O 09-30 at LA MONROE + 7 54.5 43-51 L L O 09-23 at SMU + 3 71.5 21-44 L L U 09-23 VS W ILLINOIS + 3.5 55 10-52 L L O 09-16 VS ARK-PINE BLUFF -54.5 63 48-3 W L U 09-16 at UAB PK 53 23-30 L L P 09-02 at NEBRASKA +14.5 52.5 36-43 L W O 09-02 VS MASSACHUSETTS + 3 57 38-28 W W O

(201) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO (-2.5 | 60) [SU:3-1 | ATS:2-2] AT (202) NORTH TEXAS [SU:3-2 | ATS:3-2]OCTOBER 14, 2017 7:00 PM on ESPN3 - APOGEE STADIUM (DENTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UTSA 35.2 24 40-211 [5.2] 29-21-267 [9.1] 13.6 18.0 15 31-126 [4.0] 25-11-144 [5.7] 15.0 0 +17.2 NORTH TEXAS 38.8 24 39-216 [5.6] 34-21-295 [8.7] 13.2 34.0 19 38-128 [3.4] 37-19-272 [7.3] 11.8 -3 +4.8

After 3-0 start, UTSA was a 10-point home favorite in C-USA opener and gave a meager defensive performance in falling to Southern Miss 31-29. The Roadrunners will have to regroup quickly as they will face the only club in the West Division without a loss, North Texas. The Mean Green confidence has to high, since the week prior they won at Southern Miss 43-28 as 7.5-point underdogs and had two weeks to prepare. If North Texas can turn this into high-scoring affair, they can win this contest, since their average total score per game is in the low 70’s. UTSA is dramatically better defensively (18 vs. 34 PPG allowed) and if they slow the Mean Green, they should win and cover number.

V-TRENDS• NORTH TEXAS is 12-6 ATS(S2000) - Against dominant teams outscoring opponents by more than

15 points per game(CS)• TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO is 6-13 ATS(S2000) - In October• NORTH TEXAS is 9-2 OVER(L3Y) - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.7 yards per

carry(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSTEXAS-SAN ANTONIO RESULTS NORTH TEXAS RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS SOUTHERN MISS -10 49 29-31 L L O 09-30 at SOUTHERN MISS + 7.5 56 43-28 W W O 09-23 at TEXAS ST -13.5 45 44-14 W W O 09-23 VS UAB -10.5 60 46-43 W L O 09-16 VS SOUTHERN U -34.5 47 51-17 W L O 09-16 at IOWA +19.5 51.5 14-31 L W U 09-09 at BAYLOR +11 56 17-10 W W U 09-09 at SMU +11.5 64.5 32-54 L L O 09-02 VS LAMAR -17.5 54 59-14 W W O




49

College Football Matchups(203) TEXAS A&M [SU:4-2 | ATS:3-2-1] AT (204) FLORIDA (-2.5 | 52) [SU:3-2 | ATS:1-3-1]

OCTOBER 14, 2017 7:00 PM on ESPN2 - BEN HILL GRIFFIN STADIUM (GAINESVILLE, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TEXAS A&M 34.3 22 47-225 [4.8] 30-18-200 [6.6] 12.4 27.8 18 33-118 [3.6] 34-20-263 [7.6] 13.7 +6 +6.5 FLORIDA 25.0 16 36-155 [4.3] 25-15-192 [7.8] 13.9 24.2 20 36-156 [4.3] 30-16-217 [7.3] 15.4 -2 +0.8

Moral victories do not go a long way with the SEC fan bases. Still, Texas A&M fans cannot be completely disheartened about loss to Alabama. This would be especially true if they avoid SEC swoon of recent years and pick up a victory in Gainesville. If you break these teams down, the Aggies have more game-changing players, though they can be prone to being overly aggressive and making mistakes. Florida had opportunities to knock off LSU, but did not is display the needed desire until they were down 17-3. If the Gators play in the same manor versus Texas A&M, the Aggies have the athletes to make plays that convert to points. Both teams have truly dismal trends, making this contest about heart and execution.

V-TRENDS• FLORIDA is 13-9-3 ATS(L25G) - Conference games• TEXAS A&M is 2-9 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7

yards per play(CS)• TEXAS A&M is 12-3 UNDER(L3Y) - Against decent passing teams averaging more than 7.5 yards

per attempt(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSTEXAS A&M RESULTS FLORIDA RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS ALABAMA +25.5 56.5 19-27 L W U 10-07 VS LSU + 1 45.5 16-17 L P U 09-30 VS SOUTH CAROLINA - 8 50.5 24-17 W L U 09-30 VS VANDERBILT - 9.5 38.5 38-24 W W O 09-23 ** ARKANSAS - 1.5 58 50-43 W W O 09-23 at KENTUCKY - 3 44 28-27 W L O 09-16 VS LA LAFAYETTE -24 62.5 45-21 W P O 09-16 VS TENNESSEE - 7 50.5 26-20 W L U 09-09 VS NICHOLLS ST -37.5 65 24-14 W L U 09-02 ** MICHIGAN + 3.5 46 17-33 L L O 09-03 at UCLA + 7 60.5 44-45 L W O

(205) SOUTH CAROLINA [SU:4-2 | ATS:4-2] AT (206) TENNESSEE (-2.5 | 48) [SU:3-2 | ATS:1-4]OCTOBER 14, 2017 12:00 PM on ESPN - NEYLAND STADIUM (KNOXVILLE, TN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SOUTH CAROLINA 26.8 17 29-97 [3.3] 32-19-243 [7.7] 12.7 21.0 21 38-146 [3.8] 36-23-249 [6.8] 18.8 +7 +5.8 TENNESSEE 24.2 18 32-138 [4.3] 32-18-196 [6.1] 13.8 25.6 19 49-253 [5.2] 19-10-129 [6.7] 14.9 -4 -1.4

V-TRENDS• TENNESSEE is 3-8 ATS(L2Y) - VS Non-ranked team

SEASON GAME LOGSSOUTH CAROLINA RESULTS TENNESSEE RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS ARKANSAS + 3.5 45 48-22 W W O 09-30 VS GEORGIA +10 47 0-41 L L U 09-30 at TEXAS A&M + 8 50.5 17-24 L W U 09-23 VS MASSACHUSETTS -28 58 17-13 W L U 09-23 VS LOUISIANA TECH - 9.5 50 17-16 W L U 09-16 at FLORIDA + 7 50.5 20-26 L W U 09-16 VS KENTUCKY - 5.5 47.5 13-23 L L U 09-09 VS INDIANA ST -37.5 58.5 42-7 W L U 09-09 at MISSOURI + 2.5 71 31-13 W W U 09-04 ** GEORGIA TECH - 4 53.5 42-41 W L O 09-02 ** NC STATE + 8 49.5 35-28 W W O



50



College Football Matchups(207) AUBURN (-6.5 | 44.5) [SU:5-1 | ATS:2-3-1] AT (208) LSU [SU:4-2 | ATS:1-3-2]

OCTOBER 14, 2017 3:30 PM on CBS - TIGER STADIUM (BATON ROUGE, LA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF AUBURN (10) 35.8 21 47-228 [4.9] 24-17-225 [9.2] 12.7 13.0 17 38-112 [3.0] 33-19-176 [5.3] 22.2 -1 +22.8 LSU 25.3 20 41-196 [4.8] 23-13-201 [8.9] 15.7 18.8 16 33-137 [4.2] 30-17-171 [5.8] 16.4 +1 +6.5

LSU’s win at Florida showed gumption, yet the offense remains limited and the defensive front seven is still vulnerable by their standards. Auburn pulverized Ole Miss for almost three quarters before putting game on cruise control. In truth, Auburn should win this game by two touchdowns, having a terrific defense when dialed in and RB Kerryon Johnson is a touchdown machine. If QB Jarrett Stidham was more accurate throwing, Auburn would be over 40 PPG, not 35.8. LSU will need supreme run defensive effort and require a minimum of two turnovers, along with QB Danny Etling to be playmaker compared to game-manager. Auburn will be tough and is 7-0 ATS on the road after three straight games of 37 or more points.

V-TRENDS• LSU is 8-2 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - In October• AUBURN is 3-8-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.0 yards per

play(CS)• LSU is 10-1 UNDER(L2Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per

carry(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSAUBURN (10) RESULTS LSU RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS MISSISSIPPI -21 55 44-23 W P O 10-07 at FLORIDA - 1 45.5 17-16 W P U 09-30 VS MISSISSIPPI ST - 7 52 49-10 W W O 09-30 VS TROY -20.5 48.5 21-24 L L U 09-23 at MISSOURI -18.5 61 51-14 W W O 09-23 VS SYRACUSE -21.5 56 35-26 W L O 09-16 VS MERCER -41 51.5 24-10 W L U 09-16 at MISSISSIPPI ST - 7.5 53.5 7-37 L L U 09-09 at CLEMSON + 6 55.5 6-14 L L U 09-09 VS CHATTANOOGA -35 50 45-10 W P O 09-02 VS GEORGIA SOUTHERN -35 58 41-7 W L U 09-02 ** BYU -14 47 27-0 W W U

(209) MICHIGAN ST (-4.5 | 40) [SU:4-1 | ATS:4-1] AT (210) MINNESOTA [SU:3-2 | ATS:2-3]OCTOBER 14, 2017 8:00 PM on BTN - TCF BANK STADIUM (MINNEAPOLIS, MN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MICHIGAN ST (21) 22.4 21 41-182 [4.4] 32-19-212 [6.6] 17.6 16.4 14 33-97 [3.0] 29-14-161 [5.6] 15.7 +1 +6.0 MINNESOTA 28.0 19 47-190 [4.1] 22-12-170 [7.8] 12.9 17.2 17 28-114 [4.1] 35-21-200 [5.7] 18.3 +4 +10.8

V-TRENDS• MINNESOTA is 14-5 OVER(S2000) at HOME - AS underdog of 7 or less points

SEASON GAME LOGSMICHIGAN ST (21) RESULTS MINNESOTA RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 at MICHIGAN +13 39.5 14-10 W W U 10-07 at PURDUE + 3.5 45 17-31 L L O 09-30 VS IOWA - 3.5 45 17-10 W W U 09-30 VS MARYLAND -13.5 44.5 24-31 L L O 09-23 VS NOTRE DAME + 3.5 54.5 18-38 L L O 09-16 VS MIDDLE TENN ST -14 50 34-3 W W U 09-09 VS W MICHIGAN - 7 51.5 28-14 W W U 09-09 at OREGON ST + 2.5 49.5 48-14 W W O 09-02 VS BOWLING GREEN -18 56 35-10 W W U 08-31 VS BUFFALO -23 49.5 17-7 W L U




51

College Football Matchups(211) OREGON [SU:4-2 | ATS:3-3] AT (212) STANFORD (-10.5 | 61.5) [SU:4-2 | ATS:2-3-1]

OCTOBER 14, 2017 11:00 PM - STANFORD STADIUM (STANFORD, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OREGON 43.0 25 49-239 [4.9] 29-19-255 [8.8] 11.5 27.2 19 34-94 [2.7] 40-21-245 [6.2] 12.5 +1 +15.8 STANFORD (23) 36.3 18 32-260 [8.1] 26-15-186 [7.1] 12.3 24.5 23 38-183 [4.8] 34-21-252 [7.4] 17.8 +7 +11.8

Without QB Justin Herbert, Oregon is not the same offensive, as they tallied only 10 points in Eugene in loss to Washington State. The Ducks will need to establish the run, going up against Stanford defense that is just 91st in containing oncoming rushers. The Cardinal has tried stuffing the box with limited success and if Oregon rushers can find a crease, they will assemble chunk plays. Stanford will take their chances with RB Bryce Love, who is all but certain to receive Heisman invite to New York and he absolutely is key to Cardinal offense. At his point, coach David Shaw needs to pick quarterback instead of this switching by series nonsense. Stanford is 14-4 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.

V-TRENDS• OREGON is 10-3-1 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(CS)• STANFORD is 4-7-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against decent-scoring teams averaging 30 PPG or more(CS)• OREGON is 11-3 UNDER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7

yards per point(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSOREGON RESULTS STANFORD (23) RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS WASHINGTON ST + 1 59.5 10-33 L L U 10-07 at UTAH - 3 51.5 23-20 W P U 09-30 VS CALIFORNIA -16 68 45-24 W W O 09-30 VS ARIZONA ST -17 60.5 34-24 W L U 09-23 at ARIZONA ST -14 75 35-37 L L U 09-23 VS UCLA - 7 60 58-34 W W O 09-16 at WYOMING -13.5 66.5 49-13 W W U 09-16 at SAN DIEGO ST - 8 48.5 17-20 L L U 09-09 VS NEBRASKA -10.5 67.5 42-35 W L O 09-09 at USC + 4.5 54.5 24-42 L L O 09-02 VS S UTAH -38 74 77-21 W W O 08-26 ** RICE -31 50.5 62-7 W W O

(213) WASHINGTON (-17.5 | 62) [SU:6-0 | ATS:4-2] AT (214) ARIZONA ST [SU:2-3 | ATS:2-2-1]OCTOBER 14, 2017 10:45 PM on ESPN - SUN DEVIL STADIUM (TEMPE, AZ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WASHINGTON (5) 43.0 23 35-170 [4.9] 30-22-262 [8.6] 10.0 10.2 14 34-78 [2.3] 30-19-150 [5.0] 22.4 +7 +32.8 ARIZONA ST 32.6 21 43-129 [3.0] 34-22-297 [8.9] 13.1 36.4 22 33-190 [5.8] 37-24-294 [7.9] 13.3 0 -3.8

Washington has done what top teams are supposed to do when they are the superior club, take care of business. It is presumed the Huskies will do the same in Tempe, with the country’s No.3 scoring defense (10.2 PPG) and offense piling up 43 PPG. Arizona State’s 119th ranked defense does not figure to slow Washington, however, the Sun Devils average 32.6 PPG and they have done so versus opponents permitting 26.2 PPG, which opens the door to possibly having them cover the spread. This could be further enhanced by Arizona State coming off a bye and the Huskies going on there’s next. Washington is 7-0 ATS vs. teams giving up 34 or more points, but, the Devils are 11-1 ATS at home with rest.

V-TRENDS• ARIZONA ST is 12-3 ATS(S2000) at HOME - Against elite defensive teams yielding less than 4.4

yards per play(CS)• WASHINGTON is 3-9-1 ATS(S2000) - Before playing UCLA• ARIZONA ST is 16-5 OVER(S2000) at HOME - VS Opp With 1000 or more travel miles

SEASON GAME LOGSWASHINGTON (5) RESULTS ARIZONA ST RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS CALIFORNIA -28 54.5 38-7 W W U 09-30 at STANFORD +17 60.5 24-34 L W U 09-30 at OREGON ST -26.5 59 42-7 W W U 09-23 VS OREGON +14 75 37-35 W W U 09-23 at COLORADO -11.5 55 37-10 W W U 09-16 at TEXAS TECH + 7 73.5 45-52 L P O 09-16 VS FRESNO ST -34 56.5 48-16 W L O 09-09 VS SAN DIEGO ST - 2.5 54 20-30 L L U 09-09 VS MONTANA -38.5 60 63-7 W W O 08-31 VS NEW MEXICO ST -23.5 70 37-31 W L U 09-01 at RUTGERS -28 55 30-14 W L U



52



College Football Matchups(215) NEW MEXICO [SU:3-2 | ATS:3-2] AT (216) FRESNO ST (-2.5 | 54) [SU:3-2 | ATS:4-0-1]

OCTOBER 14, 2017 10:00 PM - BULLDOG STADIUM (FRESNO, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW MEXICO 30.4 20 46-267 [5.9] 19-11-162 [8.5] 14.1 24.6 19 35-125 [3.6] 35-21-220 [6.3] 14.0 -3 +5.8 FRESNO ST 32.0 20 36-156 [4.3] 35-22-254 [7.4] 12.8 24.0 17 30-112 [3.7] 32-21-205 [6.4] 13.2 +6 +8.0

V-TRENDS• FRESNO ST is 9-2 OVER(L3Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards

per play(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSNEW MEXICO RESULTS FRESNO ST RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU09-30 VS AIR FORCE + 3 51 56-38 W W O 10-07 at SAN JOSE ST -17 58.5 27-10 W P U 09-23 at TULSA + 7.5 69 16-13 W W U 09-30 VS NEVADA - 9 59.5 41-21 W W O 09-14 at BOISE ST +16.5 56 14-28 L W U 09-16 at WASHINGTON +34 56.5 16-48 L W O 09-09 VS NEW MEXICO ST - 7.5 68.5 28-30 L L U 09-09 at ALABAMA +42 55 10-41 L W U 09-02 VS ABILENE CHRISTIAN -34 67.5 38-14 W L U 09-02 VS INCARNATE WORD -34.5 56.5 66-0 W W O

(217) BOISE ST [SU:3-2 | ATS:2-2-1] AT (218) SAN DIEGO ST (-7 | 44.5) [SU:6-0 | ATS:4-2]OCTOBER 14, 2017 10:30 PM on CBSSN - SDCCU STADIUM (SAN DIEGO, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BOISE ST 28.6 18 38-125 [3.3] 30-19-216 [7.1] 11.9 24.6 17 34-106 [3.1] 37-23-219 [6.0] 13.2 +2 +4.0 SAN DIEGO ST (19) 31.8 20 44-224 [5.0] 22-13-164 [7.6] 12.2 19.3 14 36-126 [3.5] 24-14-175 [7.2] 15.6 +8 +12.5

The shoe goes on the other foot for Boise State, being the hunter instead of the hunted. The Broncos have failed to reach the MWC title game the last two years and a loss at San Diego State would leave them at a dismal .500 halfway thru the season. This Aztecs squad has been better than expected at 6-0 (4-2 ATS) and is nationally ranked, thanks to 24th ranked running game and defense contributing to +7 turnover margin. Besides the conference, this is important for both schools national brand. For the game itself, San Diego State is 11-3 ATS after rushing for 275 or more yards and Boise State is 0-7 ATS after playing a road contest.

V-TRENDS• BOISE ST is 17-8 ATS(L25G) on ROAD - In October• SAN DIEGO ST is 7-12-1 ATS(S2000) at HOME - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than

3.35 yards per carry(CS)• SAN DIEGO ST is 14-2 OVER(S2000) at HOME - Against solid defensive teams yielding less than

4.8 yards per play(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSBOISE ST RESULTS SAN DIEGO ST (19) RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-06 at BYU - 7.5 46.5 24-7 W W U 10-07 at UNLV - 8.5 56.5 41-10 W W U 09-22 VS VIRGINIA -14 50.5 23-42 L L O 09-30 VS N ILLINOIS - 9 47.5 34-28 W L O 09-14 VS NEW MEXICO -16.5 56 28-14 W L U 09-23 at AIR FORCE + 1 49.5 28-24 W W O 09-09 at WASHINGTON ST + 9.5 58 44-47 L W O 09-16 VS STANFORD + 8 48.5 20-17 W W U 09-02 VS TROY -11 58 24-13 W P U 09-09 at ARIZONA ST + 2.5 54 30-20 W W U 09-02 VS UC-DAVIS -35 55 38-17 W L P

(219) SAN JOSE ST [SU:1-6 | ATS:2-4-1] AT (220) HAWAII (-18 | 63.5) [SU:2-4 | ATS:2-4]OCTOBER 14, 2017 11:59 PM - ALOHA STADIUM (HONOLULU, HI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SAN JOSE ST 15.0 17 36-116 [3.2] 34-18-188 [5.6] 20.3 42.0 25 56-279 [5.0] 27-17-205 [7.5] 11.5 -15 -27.0HAWAII 27.5 22 37-210 [5.7] 36-23-275 [7.7] 17.6 37.2 23 36-194 [5.3] 30-20-280 [9.4] 12.7 -3 -9.7

V-TRENDS• HAWAII is 8-1 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - Against poor teams with 40%+ winning pct(CS)

SEASON GAME LOGSSAN JOSE ST RESULTS HAWAII RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS FRESNO ST +17 58.5 10-27 L P U 10-07 at NEVADA - 4 63.5 21-35 L L U 09-30 at UNLV +16.5 62.5 13-41 L L U 09-30 VS COLORADO ST + 7 64.5 21-51 L L O 09-23 VS UTAH ST + 1.5 55.5 10-61 L L O 09-23 at WYOMING + 5.5 54 21-28 L L U 09-16 at UTAH +27.5 59 16-54 L L O 09-09 at UCLA +23.5 62 23-56 L L O 09-09 at TEXAS +26.5 63.5 0-56 L L U 09-02 VS W CAROLINA -19.5 47.5 41-18 W W O 09-02 VS CAL POLY -10.5 58 34-13 W W U 08-26 at MASSACHUSETTS PK 62.5 38-35 W W O 08-26 VS SOUTH FLORIDA +20.5 69 22-42 L W U





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College Football Matchups(221) CINCINNATI [SU:2-4 | ATS:2-4] AT (222) SOUTH FLORIDA (-24.5 | 69.5) [SU:5-0 | ATS:3-2]

OCTOBER 14, 2017 7:30 PM on ESPNU - RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM (TAMPA, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CINCINNATI 22.8 19 28-102 [3.6] 40-21-229 [5.7] 14.5 33.0 21 44-222 [5.0] 22-13-198 [8.8] 12.7 -2 -10.2SOUTH FLORIDA (18) 44.8 27 60-309 [5.1] 26-14-201 [7.7] 11.4 20.0 15 32-74 [2.4] 39-18-219 [5.6] 14.7 +11 +24.8

V-TRENDS• SOUTH FLORIDA is 10-2 ATS(S2000) at HOME - OU line of 60 or more

SEASON GAME LOGSCINCINNATI RESULTS SOUTH FLORIDA (18) RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU10-07 VS UCF +14.5 53.5 23-51 L L O 09-30 at EAST CAROLINA -21.5 71 61-31 W W O 09-30 VS MARSHALL - 3 53.5 21-38 L L O 09-21 VS TEMPLE -17.5 61 43-7 W W U 09-23 at NAVY + 7.5 52 32-42 L L O 09-15 VS ILLINOIS -16.5 54.5 47-23 W W O 09-16 at MIAMI OH + 3.5 49 21-17 W W U 09-02 VS STONY BROOK -35 58.5 31-17 W L U 09-09 at MICHIGAN +31 49.5 14-36 L W O 08-26 at SAN JOSE ST -20.5 69 42-22 W L U 08-31 VS AUSTIN PEAY -44 58.5 26-14 W L U

(223) GEORGIA TECH [SU:3-1 | ATS:4-0] AT (224) MIAMI FL (-6.5 | 52.5) [SU:4-0 | ATS:3-1]OCTOBER 14, 2017 3:30 PM - HARD ROCK STADIUM (MIAMI, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF GEORGIA TECH 36.5 24 67-396 [5.9] 8-5-83 [9.8] 13.1 19.0 13 26-102 [3.8] 29-17-158 [5.4] 13.7 -2 +17.5 MIAMI FL (11) 37.0 23 31-198 [6.4] 34-20-272 [8.0] 12.7 17.2 22 38-148 [3.8] 40-23-235 [5.9] 22.3 +4 +19.8

This was originally scheduled to be played on but with Miami having schedule interrupted by Hurricane Irma, the teams agreed it made sense to move to Saturday in fairness in rest. Georgia Tech ends up having two full weeks to prepare and probably needs it with how these Hurricanes are playing and off their clutch come from behind win at Florida State. Miami has to refocus off huge victory and they have concerns facing the Yellow Jackets No.2 run option offense after permitting 386 yards rushing in past two outings. The option run game is not without risks and Georgia Tech is averaging two miscues a game, which Miami could quickly turn into points. The Jackets are just 1-7 ATS vs. the ‘Canes.

V-TRENDS• MIAMI FL is 12-3 ATS(L2Y) - As favorite• GEORGIA TECH is 3-11 ATS(L5Y) - Against elite defensive teams allowing less than 17.5 PPG(CS)• MIAMI FL is 9-3 UNDER(L3Y) - as favorite of 7 or less points

SEASON GAME LOGSGEORGIA TECH RESULTS MIAMI FL (11) RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU09-30 VS NORTH CAROLINA - 8 57 33-7 W W U 10-07 at FLORIDA ST - 2.5 46 24-20 W W U 09-23 VS PITTSBURGH - 7.5 55 35-17 W W U 09-29 at DUKE - 5 55 31-6 W W U 09-09 VS JACKSONVILLE ST -14.5 51 37-10 W W U 09-23 VS TOLEDO -13.5 60.5 52-30 W W O 09-04 ** TENNESSEE + 4 53.5 41-42 L W O 09-02 VS BETHUNE-COOKMAN -47 63.5 41-13 W L U



Point Spread Saturday/Point Spread Sunday (11 a.m.-1 p.m. ET): Brent Musburger reprises the role he played so well as host of the NFL Today show on CBS. He’ll host a fast-paced two hours that preview the big games Saturday in college football and every game Sunday in the NFLThe Green Zone (1-8 p.m. ET): You know the NFL RedZone channel . . . which switches to different games as teams are close to scoring? This is the VSiN Green Zone, where we keep bettors informed when their bets are close to cashing in as well as how the odds are changing during the action. The Starting Lineup (7-8 p.m. ET on Sundays): Matt Youmans, Jonathan Von Tobel and Dave Tuley take a first look at the opening lines in college and pro football.

VSiN Fall Weekend Lineup (11 a.m.-8 p.m. ET)

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One of the endless mysteries in handicapping college football, or any other sport for that matter, is how much home-field advantage to assign to a given team in a matchup. There are handicappers that do it from a general sense, issuing a standard 3-4 points depending upon how much they value that particular factor. There are others that develop team specific home-field edges, assuming that there are naturally environments that are tougher than others across the college football landscape. For that latter group, I am here to help in your quest for determining which teams deserve the most home-field advantage points.

There are several reasons off the top of my head that I can think of as to why teams have more definitive home-field advantage than others. Among these are weather, field surface as it fits the roster, crowd capacity/enhusiasm, confidence level of a team, and perhaps even distractions available to a visiting team while there. I’m sure you can think of others, but one thing is for sure, there is no way that every team’s advantage is the same. Judging home-field edges as equal across the board can lead to mistakes and either missed or even worse, lost betting opportunities.

To determine which teams hold the best TRUE HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE in college football, I took their game logs at home since the start of the 2014 season, or the last 3-1/2 seasons. I compared their own average power rating in those games to their opponents’ average power rating. This margin would be considered the amount they should have won or lost by when meeting on a neutral field, or the expected margin. I then compared this amount to the actual point differential that the team accumulated in those games. Obviously, the teams that had a greater actual differential than expected differential played the “best” at home. The margins went as high as +10.4 (for UAB ironically in nine games) to -2.5 (for Lousiana-Lafayette).

Of course, you would not want to assign a home-field edge of 10.4 points to UAB, as that would be quite erroneous. However, the Blazers might be worthy of your betting consideration when oddsmakers don’t give them the respect they perhaps deserve when playing in Birmingham. Alternatively, there is no way that you should penalize Louisiana-Lafayette when they are playing at home, but to give them the full credit of 3-3.5 points might also be a mistake.

In general, I believe most bookmakers will assign an average of about 3.75 points in a college football game to a home team. I personally believe this number should be closer to 3.5 or less, and that’s about where my average rating lies. If you add up all 130 teams on the charts below, the combined true home-field advantage is only about 2.6, that is the reason, I tend to down my own home-field edge by a quarter point.

Let’s take a quick look at each of the conferences in college football and analyze the TRUE home-field edges I have uncovered. Next week, I’ll be back to review the road field numbers.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCEGeorgia Tech has been the best performing home team in the ACC with a true home-field edge of 7.4 points. The Yellow Jackets are followed closely by Clemson at 6.5. The Tigers own a home-field record of 24-1 since 2014, losing only to Pittsburgh last season. In terms of point-spread success however, it is Duke setting the pace at 14-9 ATS. On the opposite side of the coin, quite surprisingly, Florida State has enjoyed the least true home-field edge in the ACC. Even still, at 1.1, all 14 of the ACC’s teams have a positive true home-field edge, making it the only conference in the country to earn that designation.

SU ATS Avg Avg Exp Avg Actual TrueTeam W-L (%) W-L (%) TmPR OppPR PPG+/- Line PF-PA PPG+/- HFEdge

BOSTON COLLEGE 8-14 (36%) 8-14 (36%) 39.6 42.7 -3.1 -1.1 20.4-22.3 -1.9 1.2CLEMSON 24-1 (96%) 13-11-1 (54%) 58.7 41.0 17.7 -21.6 38.1-13.9 24.2 6.5DUKE 14-9 (61%) 14-9 (61%) 45.3 39.3 6.0 -8.7 29.2-18.6 10.6 4.6FLORIDA ST 17-4 (81%) 9-12 (43%) 58.6 44.6 14.0 -16.3 33.8-18.7 15.1 1.1GEORGIA TECH 15-7 (68%) 12-10 (55%) 48.8 43.5 5.3 -7.8 32.5-19.8 12.7 7.4LOUISVILLE 16-5 (76%) 8-13 (38%) 53.3 39.3 14.0 -19.6 39.1-20.8 18.3 4.3MIAMI FL 16-5 (76%) 12-8-1 (60%) 50.7 38.7 12.0 -14.8 36.0-21.6 14.4 2.4NC STATE 15-9 (63%) 11-13 (46%) 45.1 38.8 6.3 -10.9 33.0-24.8 8.2 1.9NORTH CAROLINA 15-8 (65%) 10-13 (43%) 49.5 42.3 7.2 -10.8 36.5-26.9 9.6 2.4PITTSBURGH 14-9 (61%) 7-15-1 (32%) 47.0 42.6 4.4 -8.4 35.5-29.3 6.2 1.8SYRACUSE 10-13 (43%) 10-13 (43%) 38.8 41.8 -3.0 0.9 25.4-27.0 -1.6 1.4VIRGINIA 13-11 (54%) 13-10-1 (57%) 41.7 43.8 -2.1 -0.8 28.6-28.0 0.6 2.7VIRGINIA TECH 12-10 (55%) 10-12 (45%) 49.0 42.0 7.0 -10.8 31.0-19.6 11.4 4.4WAKE FOREST 10-12 (45%) 13-9 (59%) 36.7 37.7 -1.0 -1.1 22.3-19.4 2.9 3.9

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE

True Home-Field Advantage in College Football

by Steve Makinen


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AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCEThere have been four teams in the American Athletic Conference that have enjoyed a true home-field edge of 5.5 points or more over the last four seasons. Those teams are Temple (8.2), Navy (7.1), Memphis (6.3), and South Florida (5.5). of those, Temple’s 15-7 ATS record during that span sets the pace. Two other teams, Cincinnati & Connecticut, have not enjoyed much home-field edge, each sporting a negative rating. Not surprisingly, the Bearcats and Huskies have combined for a record of 12-33 ATS since 2014. If you look at the average line column in the AAC chart, you will see that Memphis (-15.3) and Houston (-14.4) have far and away played as the largest home favorites on average.


CINCINNATI 14-8 (64%) 7-15 (32%) 40.7 35.3 5.4 -9.8 31.0-27.5 3.5 -1.9CONNECTICUT 10-13 (43%) 5-18 (22%) 29.8 35.5 -5.7 0.8 19.7-27.2 -7.5 -1.8EAST CAROLINA 11-11 (50%) 7-15 (32%) 37.3 36.8 0.5 -6.3 31.4-30.1 1.3 0.8HOUSTON 18-4 (82%) 9-13 (41%) 46.9 35.6 11.3 -14.3 35.3-19.8 15.5 4.2MEMPHIS 18-4 (82%) 10-12 (45%) 45.5 33.2 12.3 -15.4 43.2-24.6 18.6 6.3NAVY 18-3 (86%) 13-8 (62%) 42.1 35.5 6.6 -8.9 38.7-25.0 13.7 7.1SMU 8-15 (35%) 10-13 (43%) 29.1 39.0 -9.9 6.8 27.0-37.2 -10.2 -0.3SOUTH FLORIDA 16-7 (70%) 14-7-2 (67%) 40.4 35.6 4.8 -7.4 35.0-24.7 10.3 5.5TEMPLE 16-6 (73%) 15-7 (68%) 41.1 35.0 6.1 -7.9 30.0-15.7 14.3 8.2TULANE 9-12 (43%) 10-10-1 (50%) 30.1 34.9 -4.8 1.0 24.7-26.0 -1.3 3.5TULSA 12-9 (57%) 7-13-1 (35%) 34.8 34.4 0.4 -4.0 36.8-34.6 2.2 1.8UCF 11-9 (55%) 11-9 (55%) 37.6 33.8 3.8 -7.0 27.1-21.0 6.1 2.3

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE

BIG 12 CONFERENCEOnly Baylor in the Big 12 Conference owns a negative true home-field advantage rating over the last 3+ seasons, and that might come as a surprise considering that the Bears own a point differential of +17.4 PPG at home during that span. The truth is however that they SHOULD own a margin even greater based upon the opponents they have played. The best home-field team in this conference has actually been West Virginia, who’s rating of 6.3 just edges out Kansas State (5.8) and Iowa State (5.7). The latter of those teams is not exactly known for being an elite home team, but these numbers do show that the Cyclones are quite competitive as hosts. One other Big 12 team of note, Texas Tech owns the best pointspread record in this conference in our study, 14-5-1 ATS, as well being tops in points per game (46.5 PPG).


BAYLOR 15-7 (68%) 10-12 (45%) 58.5 41.0 17.5 -22.4 45.4-28.0 17.4 -0.1IOWA ST 7-16 (30%) 13-10 (57%) 40.1 46.9 -6.8 3.8 29.1-30.2 -1.1 5.7KANSAS 6-17 (26%) 10-12-1 (45%) 27.4 42.2 -14.8 12.0 23.3-36.0 -12.7 2.1KANSAS ST 18-5 (78%) 13-9-1 (59%) 50.3 39.9 10.4 -13.8 38.2-22.0 16.2 5.8OKLAHOMA 16-5 (76%) 12-9 (57%) 61.5 43.5 18.0 -22.6 42.4-22.5 19.9 1.9OKLAHOMA ST 16-6 (73%) 10-12 (45%) 53.1 43.8 9.3 -12.6 39.8-28.2 11.6 2.3TCU 18-5 (78%) 12-11 (52%) 56.8 41.2 15.6 -19.8 42.3-22.3 20.0 4.4TEXAS 12-9 (57%) 11-9-1 (55%) 48.7 46.0 2.7 -6.9 33.4-28.5 4.9 2.2TEXAS TECH 11-10 (52%) 14-6-1 (70%) 45.5 43.0 2.5 -6.3 46.5-38.9 7.6 5.1WEST VIRGINIA 17-5 (77%) 10-11-1 (48%) 51.4 41.6 9.8 -13.9 36.2-20.1 16.1 6.3

BIG 12 CONFERENCE

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BIG TEN CONFERENCEThere are three teams that have distinguished themselves as top true home-field teams in the Big Ten Conference. Those are Penn State (8.3), Wisconsin (7.1), and Iowa (6.5). All three of those programs are known for their rabid fan bases as well as challenging weather conditions for opponents in late season games. Ohio State’s 22-3 outright record at home since 2014 is this league’s best, but the Nittany Lions are just two games worse and boast the best ATS mark of any of the 14 teams, 16-9 ATS. Not surprisingly, there have been three teams that have compiled a negative true home-field advantage rating over the last 3+ seasons, and that is reflected by their overall failures in recent years. Purdue (-1.0), Maryland (-0.6), and Rutgers (-0.1) have all won less than 45% of their games at home during that span, although the Boilermakers might be ready to break out of that funk this season under new head coach Jeff Brohm.


ILLINOIS 13-10 (57%) 9-14 (39%) 38.0 39.0 -1.0 -1.7 24.5-24.1 0.4 1.4INDIANA 12-11 (52%) 8-13-2 (38%) 40.8 41.1 -0.3 -3.9 30.9-30.6 0.3 0.6IOWA 18-7 (72%) 11-14 (44%) 48.2 41.9 6.3 -9.0 31.9-19.1 12.8 6.5MARYLAND 9-12 (43%) 10-11 (48%) 40.5 39.3 1.2 -5.5 30.6-30.0 0.6 -0.6MICHIGAN 19-6 (76%) 10-14-1 (42%) 54.4 39.7 14.7 -18.7 32.5-14.0 18.5 3.8MICHIGAN ST 18-7 (72%) 14-11 (56%) 52.5 42.3 10.2 -12.8 33.7-19.9 13.8 3.6MINNESOTA 17-7 (71%) 11-13 (46%) 43.9 39.5 4.4 -7.9 29.4-22.5 6.9 2.5NEBRASKA 18-7 (72%) 9-14-2 (39%) 49.0 39.6 9.4 -13.4 33.5-22.2 11.3 1.9NORTHWESTERN 13-11 (54%) 10-14 (42%) 43.8 41.8 2.0 -5.5 22.0-18.8 3.2 1.2OHIO ST 22-3 (88%) 10-15 (40%) 62.8 41.5 21.3 -25.9 42.6-15.8 26.8 5.5PENN ST 20-5 (80%) 16-9 (64%) 48.4 40.5 7.9 -9.9 31.4-15.2 16.2 8.3PURDUE 8-16 (33%) 8-15-1 (35%) 34.5 42.6 -8.1 4.4 26.8-35.9 -9.1 -1.0RUTGERS 9-15 (38%) 10-13-1 (43%) 34.4 38.4 -4.0 -0.5 24.3-28.4 -4.1 -0.1WISCONSIN 18-3 (86%) 9-12 (43%) 54.8 38.5 16.3 -19.9 36.3-12.9 23.4 7.1

BIG TEN CONFERENCE

CONFERENCE USAWith as much of a true home-field advantage rating that UAB has enjoyed in its last nine home games, it seems almost crazy that Blazers’ fans lost their team for two seasons in 2015 & 2016. With just that limited sample of games to call on, UAB has been THE TOP TEAM in all of college football in our study. They have only been expected to win by 1.1 points in their home games, yet have actually won by 11.5 PPG. If you’re hoping to take advantage of this newly uncovered information, note that the Blazers have home games versus Middle Tennessee State on Saturday, as well as Rice & UTEP in November. Elsewhere is C-USA, Western Kentucky (8.5), Louisiana Tech (7.5), and North Texas (6.6) have been noteworthy home performers as well, with WKU’s 19-3 SU & 13-8-1 ATS record being the best among the group. On the opposite end you’ll find Charlotte (-2.2), who owns only one home-field win in its last 14 lined tries (3-9-2 ATS), that coming against Elon last season.


CHARLOTTE 1-13 (7%) 3-9-2 (25%) 17.1 27.4 -10.3 3.8 18.0-30.6 -12.6 -2.3FLA ATLANTIC 8-12 (40%) 6-14 (30%) 27.7 32.1 -4.4 0.8 28.5-30.6 -2.1 2.3FLA INTERNATIONAL 11-11 (50%) 10-10-2 (50%) 24.7 30.2 -5.5 3.4 26.3-29.0 -2.7 2.8LOUISIANA TECH 16-3 (84%) 11-8 (58%) 41.3 27.2 14.1 -16.8 45.7-24.1 21.6 7.5MARSHALL 17-5 (77%) 11-9-2 (55%) 39.8 29.7 10.1 -13.3 37.0-23.1 13.9 3.8MIDDLE TENN ST 15-5 (75%) 12-8 (60%) 36.1 26.3 9.8 -12.9 39.8-25.8 14.0 4.2NORTH TEXAS 10-9 (53%) 10-7-2 (59%) 24.3 28.4 -4.1 1.4 30.8-28.3 2.5 6.6OLD DOMINION 14-8 (64%) 8-13-1 (38%) 27.1 28.0 -0.9 -3.4 30.5-31.4 -0.9 0.0RICE 9-10 (47%) 9-9-1 (50%) 27.1 28.6 -1.5 -2.7 27.8-30.3 -2.5 -1.0SOUTHERN MISS 12-9 (57%) 9-12 (43%) 31.5 26.4 5.1 -8.9 32.4-25.5 6.9 1.8TX-SAN ANTONIO 9-11 (45%) 9-11 (45%) 29.1 29.8 -0.7 -3.1 26.7-26.9 -0.2 0.5UAB 6-3 (67%) 6-3 (67%) 26.2 25.1 1.1 -5.7 33.1-21.6 11.5 10.4UTEP 11-10 (52%) 12-8-1 (60%) 22.6 26.8 -4.2 1.5 25.8-27.1 -1.3 2.9W KENTUCKY 19-3 (86%) 13-8-1 (62%) 41.8 29.3 12.5 -15.3 45.6-24.6 21.0 8.5

CONFERENCE USA

FBS INDEPENDENTSNotre Dame has been the best team of the Independents when it comes to true home-field advantage, boasting a rating of 4.7, despite facing teams that own an average power rating of 45.8. That figure is #5 in the country during the last 3+ years stretch. The Irish are 14-7 SU & 12-9 ATS against those opponents in South Bend. All four FBS Independents at least own a positive true home-field edge but none of the other three teams have come close to matching Notre Dame’s ATS success at home.


ARMY 10-9 (53%) 8-11 (42%) 30.7 25.6 5.1 -9.3 30.4-24.7 5.7 0.6BYU 16-6 (73%) 9-13 (41%) 46.6 34.5 12.1 -15.9 34.7-21.8 12.9 0.8MASSACHUSETTS 5-13 (28%) 7-11 (39%) 25.6 31.1 -5.5 2.3 24.4-27.9 -3.5 2.0NOTRE DAME 14-7 (67%) 12-9 (57%) 54.0 45.8 8.2 -11.9 35.6-22.7 12.9 4.7

FBS INDEPENDENTS


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MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCEWestern Michigan (7.8) and Buffalo (5.4), the two teams that battled to a 71-68 7OT decision last Saturday, have been the top two true home-field teams in the MAC in recent years. Closely related, only the Broncos, Bulls, and Ohio U own positive home ATS records in our study. Ball State (-2.0), Central Michigan (-1.7), and Kent State (-0.1) all find themselves on the negative side of the coin. Perhaps we’ll find them as better road teams next week when we offer part 2 of this series. Not mentioned to this point is Toledo, who in peculiar fashion, owns the MAC’s best home record (17-4) over the last 3+ seasons, but only a 2.8 rating. The Rockets’ home success is possibly overstated, due to the fact that they have been good but are merely taking care of the business of winning at home, not dominating weaker opponents.


AKRON 11-10 (52%) 8-13 (38%) 30.8 26.5 4.3 -8.4 26.6-21.1 5.5 1.2BALL ST 8-11 (42%) 5-14 (26%) 29.3 28.0 1.3 -5.7 28.8-29.5 -0.7 -2.0BOWLING GREEN 11-9 (55%) 8-12 (40%) 34.4 30.5 3.9 -7.3 35.1-28.8 6.3 2.4BUFFALO 10-11 (48%) 12-9 (57%) 27.5 30.0 -2.5 0.0 31.9-29.0 2.9 5.4C MICHIGAN 12-8 (60%) 8-12 (40%) 34.8 30.2 4.6 -8.5 26.9-24.0 2.9 -1.7E MICHIGAN 5-13 (28%) 8-10 (44%) 20.7 29.2 -8.5 4.5 24.8-32.7 -7.9 0.6KENT ST 6-14 (30%) 7-12-1 (37%) 25.9 29.6 -3.7 -0.1 22.4-26.2 -3.8 -0.1MIAMI OHIO 8-13 (38%) 9-11-1 (45%) 24.7 28.2 -3.5 0.1 22.5-25.0 -2.5 1.0N ILLINOIS 13-6 (68%) 8-10-1 (44%) 37.3 27.4 9.9 -13.9 35.2-23.5 11.7 1.8OHIO U 15-6 (71%) 12-9 (57%) 32.2 25.9 6.3 -10.2 30.7-20.6 10.1 3.8TOLEDO 17-4 (81%) 8-11-2 (42%) 42.3 30.7 11.6 -15.4 38.2-23.8 14.4 2.8W MICHIGAN 16-4 (80%) 12-8 (60%) 41.2 28.5 12.7 -15.1 42.7-22.2 20.5 7.8

MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCEAir Force, at 8.9 THFA, has been second to only UAB when it comes to home-field success in recent years. Of course, the Falcons have played a full 3+ seasons schedule during our study, so it could be argued that they have been THE best team at home in all of college football. With a 18-2 SU & 14-6 ATS record since 2014, bettors that have backed Air Force at home in recent years have been handsomely rewarded. The notable thing regarding that performance is that the Falcons still have four home games left in 2017 to take advantage of, starting this Saturday when they host UNLV. Colorado State (6.0) and San Diego State (5.4) have also proven tough at home. The same cannot be said for Hawaii (-0.2) and UNLV (-0.9), who are a combined 13-30 ATS since 2014. Perhaps one of the biggest surprises in the MWC when it comes to home performance is Boise State, whose 0.0 rating suggest a serious under-performance, despite great success overall and a very unique home-field environment, both in terms of the blue field, and the potential for inclement weather.


AIR FORCE 18-2 (90%) 14-6 (70%) 37.8 30.0 7.8 -11.4 37.0-20.3 16.7 8.9BOISE ST 19-3 (86%) 6-15-1 (29%) 48.9 35.3 13.6 -18.9 34.5-20.9 13.6 0.0COLORADO ST 16-5 (76%) 14-6-1 (70%) 37.3 29.5 7.8 -11.1 37.2-23.4 13.8 6.0FRESNO ST 8-11 (42%) 12-6-1 (67%) 27.8 31.4 -3.6 0.2 27.9-27.7 0.2 3.8HAWAII 10-12 (45%) 6-16 (27%) 28.2 33.2 -5.0 -0.2 27.9-33.1 -5.2 -0.2NEVADA 12-9 (57%) 8-12-1 (40%) 31.9 32.1 -0.2 -3.8 29.1-28.5 0.6 0.8NEW MEXICO 14-10 (58%) 10-14 (42%) 31.0 30.7 0.3 -2.6 35.6-31.1 4.5 4.2SAN DIEGO ST 20-3 (87%) 10-10-3 (50%) 42.0 30.3 11.7 -14.5 33.1-16.0 17.1 5.4SAN JOSE ST 8-12 (40%) 11-8-1 (58%) 29.6 34.1 -4.5 1.0 23.9-26.1 -2.2 2.3UNLV 8-13 (38%) 7-14 (33%) 27.6 29.6 -2.0 -3.2 32.2-35.1 -2.9 -0.9UTAH ST 16-5 (76%) 9-12 (43%) 39.0 31.3 7.7 -11.4 34.0-22.2 11.8 4.1WYOMING 14-9 (61%) 11-12 (48%) 30.0 32.6 -2.6 -0.7 26.3-26.8 -0.5 2.1

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE

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PAC 12 CONFERENCEPerhaps the biggest surprise in all of this true home-field edge study is the performance, or lack thereof, of Oregon, who is tied for the country’s worst rating with a -2.5. The Ducks simply have underperformed at home, as opponents have not been intimidated by the flashy uniforms and overall team speed. Or perhaps, oddsmakers have been so awestruck by these things that they have simply chosen to consistently overprice Oregon at home. UCLA (-2.2) has also proven beatable at home, although to their credit, the Bruins have played the toughest schedule of any team in the country as hosts over the last 3+ seasons, with their opponents’ power ratings averaging 48.2. Washington (7.3) and USC (6.6) have been the Pac 12’s toughest teams as hosts, combining for a 37-10 outright record during our study. The Huskies have four home games remaining in 2017 while USC has three.


ARIZONA 12-8 (60%) 7-13 (35%) 47.3 43.1 4.2 -7.1 37.7-30.9 6.8 2.6ARIZONA ST 16-7 (70%) 13-10 (57%) 48.3 44.6 3.7 -7.4 37.8-31.7 6.1 2.4CALIFORNIA 13-9 (59%) 10-11-1 (48%) 45.1 44.6 0.5 -3.6 37.1-32.9 4.2 3.7COLORADO 10-11 (48%) 9-12 (43%) 43.8 42.1 1.7 -5.7 31.3-26.1 5.2 3.5OREGON 17-7 (71%) 9-15 (38%) 56.5 42.4 14.1 -20.2 43.7-32.1 11.6 -2.5OREGON ST 10-13 (43%) 9-14 (39%) 37.8 42.1 -4.3 -0.5 25.5-30.2 -4.7 -0.4STANFORD 16-5 (76%) 11-9-1 (55%) 56.5 46.4 10.1 -14.1 33.0-19.0 14.0 3.9UCLA 13-8 (62%) 6-14-1 (30%) 54.0 48.2 5.8 -10.1 32.0-28.4 3.6 -2.2USC 20-3 (87%) 14-9 (61%) 57.5 44.4 13.1 -15.9 40.8-21.1 19.7 6.6UTAH 15-7 (68%) 10-11-1 (48%) 50.0 44.4 5.6 -10.2 29.3-22.0 7.3 1.7WASHINGTON 17-7 (71%) 12-12 (50%) 53.9 40.9 13.0 -16.3 38.3-18.0 20.3 7.3WASHINGTON ST 15-10 (60%) 13-12 (52%) 47.2 40.9 6.3 -9.9 38.8-28.0 10.8 4.5

PAC 12 CONFERENCE

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCEThe lack of true home-field advantage in the SEC is stunning considering that most experts and fans believe that the environments in this conference are the most intimidating in all of college football. However, with a combined average true home-field advantage rating of 2.4, the edge in the SEC is really minimal. Keep that in mind as you wager SEC football games the rest of the way. It should also be noted that only four of the 14 teams in this league boast ATS marks that are above .500 since 2014. In terms of who has been best, note Mississippi State’s 5.4 rating, followed by Ole Miss’ 5.1. Missouri (-1.4), Texas A&M (-0.9), and Vanderbilt (-0.6) have shown negative ratings over the last 3+ seasons at home, with the Aggies’ 6-17-1 ATS record being particularly alarming.


ALABAMA 23-1 (96%) 10-13-1 (43%) 67.0 43.3 23.7 -27.8 40.6-12.4 28.2 4.5ARKANSAS 16-8 (67%) 12-11-1 (52%) 52.1 41.7 10.4 -13.4 35.8-21.2 14.6 4.2AUBURN 19-7 (73%) 10-15-1 (40%) 57.3 42.3 15.0 -18.2 35.4-17.7 17.7 2.7FLORIDA 16-5 (76%) 8-11-2 (42%) 52.2 40.2 12.0 -15.1 31.1-16.5 14.6 2.6GEORGIA 17-5 (77%) 11-11 (50%) 56.2 42.3 13.9 -17.3 34.0-16.1 17.9 4.0KENTUCKY 17-9 (65%) 11-15 (42%) 42.6 37.9 4.7 -8.1 32.7-26.4 6.3 1.6LSU 18-6 (75%) 13-10-1 (57%) 58.2 45.9 12.3 -16.3 32.6-15.9 16.7 4.4MISSISSIPPI ST 16-6 (73%) 12-10 (55%) 52.5 42.3 10.2 -12.9 37.3-21.7 15.6 5.4MISSOURI 13-11 (54%) 9-15 (38%) 45.8 40.6 5.2 -9.3 27.0-23.2 3.8 -1.4OLE MISS 18-5 (78%) 13-10 (57%) 57.1 42.2 14.9 -18.3 40.9-20.9 20.0 5.1SOUTH CAROLINA 13-10 (57%) 9-13-1 (41%) 45.9 42.9 3.0 -5.8 27.7-24.4 3.3 0.3TENNESSEE 15-7 (68%) 9-13 (41%) 51.8 42.1 9.7 -13.2 32.5-21.3 11.2 1.5TEXAS A&M 16-8 (67%) 6-17-1 (26%) 54.2 41.3 12.9 -17.0 34.7-22.7 12.0 -0.9VANDERBILT 12-12 (50%) 11-12-1 (48%) 38.9 41.0 -2.1 -0.8 21.8-24.5 -2.7 -0.6

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE


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SUN BELT CONFERENCEThere are 12 teams in the Sun Belt Conference, and half of them have negative true home-field advantage ratings when it comes to their performance since 2014. In fact, cumulatively, the SBC has a rating of 0.8, easily the worst in all of college football. In other words, it makes little sense to consistently back these teams when playing at home until that distinctive trend turns. The only two exceptions to that rule would be Arkansas State (6.7) and New Mexico State (5.1). Not coincidentally, those are also the only two teams that have winning ATS marks since 2014. Appalachian State (2.2) is also noteworthy, as the Mountaineers are 16-5 SU but just 7-13-1 ATS in their L21 home games, meaning oddsmakers tend to overrate them at home against their fellow SBC foes.


APPALACHIAN ST 16-5 (76%) 7-13-1 (35%) 37.0 23.6 13.4 -17.3 36.0-20.5 15.5 2.1ARKANSAS ST 15-4 (79%) 13-6 (68%) 34.8 23.9 10.9 -14.1 38.3-20.7 17.6 6.7COASTAL CAROLINA 2-2 (50%) 2-2 (50%) 25.5 28.3 -2.8 -0.6 26.3-30.5 -4.2 -1.4GA SOUTHERN 13-5 (72%) 9-9 (50%) 34.9 22.4 12.5 -16.6 36.2-20.6 15.6 3.1GEORGIA ST 6-13 (32%) 6-12-1 (33%) 21.2 25.8 -4.6 0.1 25.4-32.4 -7.0 -2.4IDAHO 9-10 (47%) 7-12 (37%) 21.7 25.8 -4.1 -0.3 27.1-30.5 -3.4 0.7LA LAFAYETTE 11-9 (55%) 8-12 (40%) 29.4 28.2 1.2 -7.0 29.2-30.5 -1.3 -2.5LA MONROE 9-8 (53%) 5-12 (29%) 24.4 25.6 -1.2 -2.4 29.4-32.1 -2.7 -1.5NEW MEXICO ST 6-12 (33%) 10-7-1 (59%) 18.7 27.7 -9.0 6.6 29.6-33.5 -3.9 5.1S ALABAMA 12-10 (55%) 6-16 (27%) 26.4 28.5 -2.1 -2.0 26.6-29.0 -2.4 -0.3TEXAS ST UNIV 8-14 (36%) 9-13 (41%) 21.0 26.4 -5.4 1.5 25.9-30.8 -4.9 0.5TROY 11-8 (58%) 7-12 (37%) 29.0 23.1 5.9 -10.9 31.2-25.7 5.5 -0.4

SUN BELT CONFERENCE

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College Football Top Weekly TrendsTEAMS TO PLAY ON TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST

45.1% ROI

60.4% ROI

49.1% ROI

63.6% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY OVER

69.7% ROI

60.8% ROI

52.7% ROI

47.5% ROI

41.5% ROI

61.5% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY UNDER

90.9% ROI

71.8% ROI

(213) WASHINGTON AT (214) ARIZONA STARIZONA ST is 19-6 ATS(L25G) at HOME - Against solid defensive teams yielding less than 4.8 yards per play(CS)( $1240 Profit with a 45.1% ROI )

(127) N ILLINOIS AT (128) BUFFALON ILLINOIS is 21-4 ATS(L25G) on ROAD - VS MAC( $1660 Profit with a 60.4% ROI )

(169) NEVADA AT (170) COLORADO STCOLORADO ST is 19-5-1 ATS(L25G) at HOME - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry(CS)( $1350 Profit with a 49.1% ROI )

(167) UNLV AT (168) AIR FORCEAIR FORCE is 18-3 OVER(L5Y) - Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 7.5 yards per attempt(CS)( $1470 Profit with a 63.6% ROI )

(177) UCLA AT (178) ARIZONAARIZONA is 8-1 OVER(L3Y) - As favorite( $690 Profit with a 69.7% ROI )

(137) TEXAS TECH AT (138) WEST VIRGINIATEXAS TECH is 16-3 OVER(L5Y) - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.7 yards per carry(CS)( $1270 Profit with a 60.8% ROI )

(109) CLEMSON AT (110) SYRACUSESYRACUSE is 5-20 ATS(L25G) at HOME - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry(CS)( $1450 Profit with a 52.7% ROI )

(187) ARKANSAS AT (188) ALABAMAALABAMA is 5-17 ATS(L24G) at HOME - Against poor teams with 40%+ winning pct(CS)( $1150 Profit with a 47.5% ROI )

(133) VIRGINIA AT (134) NORTH CAROLINAVIRGINIA is 6-18-1 ATS(L25G) - As favorite( $1140 Profit with a 41.5% ROI )

(177) UCLA AT (178) ARIZONAUCLA is 11-2 UNDER(L13G) - Before playing OREGON( $880 Profit with a 61.5% ROI )

(125) E MICHIGAN AT (126) ARMYARMY is 10-0 UNDER(L3Y) - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards per carry(CS)( $1000 Profit with a 90.9% ROI )

(207) AUBURN AT (208) LSULSU is 9-1 UNDER(L2Y) - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.7 yards per carry(CS)( $790 Profit with a 71.8% ROI )


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Top CFB Head to Head Trends(101) S ALABAMA at (102) TROY• UNDERDOGS are on a 4-0 ATS run in the South Alabama-Troy series

(105) GEORGIA TECH at (106) MIAMI FL• MIAMI is 7-1 SU & ATS in L8 vs. Georgia Tech, incl.4-0 SU & ATS at home

(107) TEXAS ST at (108) LA LAFAYETTE• LA LAFAYETTE has won four in a row SU & ATS vs. Texas State

(111) WASHINGTON ST at (112) CALIFORNIA• WASHINGTON ST is 3-5 SU but 7-1 ATS in its L8 at CAL

(113) PURDUE at (114) WISCONSIN• WISCONSIN is on an 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS run vs. Purdue

(117) MIAMI OHIO at (118) KENT ST• MIAMI OHIO has won four in a row ATS vs. Kent State

(119) OHIO U at (120) BOWLING GREEN• BOWLING GREEN is on a 6-game ATS winning streak vs. Ohio U.

(121) AKRON at (122) W MICHIGAN• WESTERN MICHIGAN is 5-1 SU & ATS vs. Akron since ‘01

(123) TOLEDO at (124) C MICHIGAN• TOLEDO is a perfect 7-0 SU & ATS vs. CMU since 2010

(125) E MICHIGAN at (126) ARMY• Four straight EMU-Army h2h matchups have gone OVER the total

(129) CONNECTICUT at (130) TEMPLE• TEMPLE owns a 10-1 ATS edge vs. UConn since 2001• The L7 h2h games between Temple and Connecticut went UNDER the total

(133) VIRGINIA at (134) NORTH CAROLINA• NORTH CAROLINA is 6-1 SU & ATS vs. Virginia since 2010

(143) EAST CAROLINA at (144) UCF• UCF is on a 6-2 ATS run in h2h play vs. East Carolina• Five of the L6 games in the ECU-UCF series went UNDER the total

(149) KANSAS at (150) IOWA ST• HOME TEAMS are on a 4-game ATS winning streak in the KAN-ISU series

(155) FLORIDA ST at (156) DUKE• FLORIDA ST has won six in a row ATS vs. Duke, avg. MOV 28.5 PPG

(157) HOUSTON at (158) TULSA• ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in Houston-Tulsa series since ‘10

(165) WYOMING at (166) UTAH ST• FAVORITES are on a 5-game SU & ATS winning streak in WUO-USU series

(167) UNLV at (168) AIR FORCE• AIR FORCE is 5-1 ATS hosting UNLV since ‘03

(169) NEVADA at (170) COLORADO ST• The L6 games in the NEV-CSU series went UNDER the total

(173) UTAH at (174) USC• HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 of the UTAH-USC series

(177) UCLA at (178) ARIZONA• UCLA has won five straight vs. Arizona SU & ATS, avg. MOV 23.6 PPG

(179) VANDERBILT at (180) OLE MISS• VANDERBILT is 7-1 ATS hosting Ole Miss since ‘01

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(181) OKLAHOMA at (182) TEXAS• TEXAS is 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in L4 vs. Oklahoma, all as underdog

(189) BAYLOR at (190) OKLAHOMA ST• OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 ATS hosting Baylor since ‘00

(205) SOUTH CAROLINA at (206) TENNESSEE• UNDERDOGS have covered five straight in the SC-TEN h2h series

(207) AUBURN at (208) LSU• HOME TEAMS in the Auburn-LSU h2h series are on a 7-1 SU & ATS run

(209) MICHIGAN ST at (210) MINNESOTA• MINNESOTA is on a 6-1 ATS surge in h2h play vs. MSU

(211) OREGON at (212) STANFORD• Five of L6 games in the ORE-STA series @Stanford went OVER the total

(213) WASHINGTON at (214) ARIZONA ST• ARIZONA ST is 10-1 SU & 11-0 ATS in L11 vs. Washington but lost LY

(217) BOISE ST at (218) SAN DIEGO ST• SAN DIEGO ST is 4-0 ATS vs. BSU since ‘11, all as the underdog

(219) SAN JOSE ST at (220) HAWAII• ROAD TEAMS are on a 4-game SU & ATS winning streak in SJSU-HAW series

(221) CINCINNATI at (222) SOUTH FLORIDA• UNDERDOGS are on a 5-1 ATS run in CIN-USF series in Orlandoe

(101) S ALABAMA AT (102) TROYGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-20 TROY (28) at S ALABAMA (21) +9 49.0 S ALABAMA HOME DOG xxxx 2015-10-03 S ALABAMA (24) at TROY (18) -6 60.5 S ALABAMA ROAD DOG UNDER 2014-10-24 TROY (13) at S ALABAMA (27) -16.5 55.0 TROY ROAD DOG UNDER 2013-10-05 S ALABAMA (33) at TROY (34) -3.5 62.5 S ALABAMA ROAD DOG OVER 2012-09-29 TROY (31) at S ALABAMA (10) +7 51.0 TROY ROAD FAV UNDER

(107) TEXAS ST AT (108) LA LAFAYETTEGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-22 LA LAFAYETTE (27) at TEXAS ST (3) +5.5 65.0 LA LAFAYETTE ROAD FAV UNDER 2015-10-10 TEXAS ST (27) at LA LAFAYETTE (49) -4 67.0 LA LAFAYETTE HOME FAV OVER 2014-10-14 LA LAFAYETTE (34) at TEXAS ST (10) -2.5 62.0 LA LAFAYETTE ROAD DOG UNDER 2013-10-05 TEXAS ST (24) at LA LAFAYETTE (48) -10.5 54.5 LA LAFAYETTE HOME FAV OVER

(109) CLEMSON AT (110) SYRACUSEGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-05 SYRACUSE (0) at CLEMSON (54) -28 68.5 CLEMSON HOME FAV UNDER 2015-11-14 CLEMSON (37) at SYRACUSE (27) +30 57.0 SYRACUSE HOME DOG OVER 2014-10-25 SYRACUSE (6) at CLEMSON (16) -17 47.0 SYRACUSE ROAD DOG UNDER 2013-10-05 CLEMSON (49) at SYRACUSE (14) +12.5 65.5 CLEMSON ROAD FAV UNDER

(111) WASHINGTON ST AT (112) CALIFORNIAGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-12 CALIFORNIA (21) at WASHINGTON ST (56) -17.5 79.0 WASHINGTON ST HOME FAV UNDER 2015-10-03 WASHINGTON ST (28) at CALIFORNIA (34) -16.5 73.0 WASHINGTON ST ROAD DOG UNDER 2014-10-04 CALIFORNIA (60) at WASHINGTON ST (59) -4 67.0 CALIFORNIA ROAD DOG OVER 2013-10-05 WASHINGTON ST (44) at CALIFORNIA (22) +2.5 66.0 WASHINGTON ST ROAD FAV xxxx 2012-10-13 CALIFORNIA (31) at WASHINGTON ST (17) +7 55.0 CALIFORNIA ROAD FAV UNDER

(113) PURDUE AT (114) WISCONSINGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-19 WISCONSIN (49) at PURDUE (20) +27.5 48.5 WISCONSIN ROAD FAV OVER 2015-10-17 PURDUE (7) at WISCONSIN (24) -23 52.0 PURDUE ROAD DOG UNDER 2014-11-08 WISCONSIN (34) at PURDUE (16) +16.5 51.5 WISCONSIN ROAD FAV UNDER 2013-09-21 PURDUE (10) at WISCONSIN (41) -21.5 48.5 WISCONSIN HOME FAV OVER 2012-10-13 WISCONSIN (38) at PURDUE (14) +1.5 49.5 WISCONSIN ROAD FAV OVER

Recent CFB Head to Head History

Top CFB Head to Head Trends


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Recent CFB Head to Head History(117) MIAMI OH AT (118) KENT STGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-15 KENT ST (14) at MIAMI OH (18) +1.5 42.5 MIAMI OH HOME DOG UNDER 2015-10-03 MIAMI OH (14) at KENT ST (20) -10.5 42.0 MIAMI OH ROAD DOG UNDER 2014-10-25 KENT ST (3) at MIAMI OH (10) -5 53.5 MIAMI OH HOME FAV UNDER 2013-11-13 MIAMI OH (6) at KENT ST (24) -19.5 50.5 MIAMI OH ROAD DOG UNDER 2012-11-10 KENT ST (48) at MIAMI OH (32) +6.5 57.0 KENT ST ROAD FAV OVER

(119) OHIO AT (120) BOWLING GREENGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-08 BOWLING GREEN (24) at OHIO (30) -12 59.5 BOWLING GREEN ROAD DOG UNDER 2015-11-04 OHIO (24) at BOWLING GREEN (62) -20.5 66.0 BOWLING GREEN HOME FAV OVER 2014-10-11 BOWLING GREEN (31) at OHIO (13) +1 65.0 BOWLING GREEN ROAD FAV UNDER 2013-11-12 OHIO (0) at BOWLING GREEN (49) -7.5 52.5 BOWLING GREEN HOME FAV UNDER 2012-11-07 BOWLING GREEN (26) at OHIO (14) -2.5 47.5 BOWLING GREEN ROAD DOG UNDER

(121) AKRON AT (122) W MICHIGANGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-15 W MICHIGAN (41) at AKRON (0) +14 66.0 W MICHIGAN ROAD FAV UNDER 2011-11-25 AKRON (19) at W MICHIGAN (68) -27.5 59.5 W MICHIGAN HOME FAV OVER 2010-10-23 W MICHIGAN (56) at AKRON (10) +7.5 52.0 W MICHIGAN ROAD FAV OVER 2007-10-06 AKRON (39) at W MICHIGAN (38) -8.5 56.5 AKRON ROAD DOG OVER 2006-11-24 W MICHIGAN (17) at AKRON (0) -2 44.5 W MICHIGAN ROAD DOG UNDER

(123) TOLEDO AT (124) C MICHIGANGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-22 C MICHIGAN (17) at TOLEDO (31) -10 61.0 TOLEDO HOME FAV UNDER 2015-11-10 TOLEDO (28) at C MICHIGAN (23) +2.5 54.5 TOLEDO ROAD FAV UNDER 2014-09-27 C MICHIGAN (28) at TOLEDO (42) -10.5 59.0 TOLEDO HOME FAV OVER 2013-09-21 TOLEDO (38) at C MICHIGAN (17) +13 57.5 TOLEDO ROAD FAV UNDER 2012-10-06 C MICHIGAN (35) at TOLEDO (50) -11.5 64.0 TOLEDO HOME FAV OVER

(125) E MICHIGAN AT (126) ARMYGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2015-09-26 ARMY (58) at E MICHIGAN (36) +2 54.5 ARMY ROAD FAV OVER 2013-10-12 E MICHIGAN (25) at ARMY (50) -10 57.5 ARMY HOME FAV OVER 2012-10-20 ARMY (38) at E MICHIGAN (48) +2.5 62.0 E MICHIGAN HOME DOG OVER 2010-09-04 ARMY (31) at E MICHIGAN (27) +9.5 42.0 E MICHIGAN HOME DOG OVER 2009-09-05 ARMY (27) at E MICHIGAN (14) -3 48.0 ARMY ROAD DOG UNDER

(127) N ILLINOIS AT (128) BUFFALOGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-22 BUFFALO (7) at N ILLINOIS (44) -24 62.0 N ILLINOIS HOME FAV UNDER 2015-11-11 N ILLINOIS (41) at BUFFALO (30) +7 55.0 N ILLINOIS ROAD FAV OVER 2012-10-13 BUFFALO (3) at N ILLINOIS (45) -14 56.0 N ILLINOIS HOME FAV UNDER 2011-10-22 N ILLINOIS (31) at BUFFALO (30) +14 62.0 BUFFALO HOME DOG UNDER 2010-10-16 BUFFALO (14) at N ILLINOIS (45) -14 50.0 N ILLINOIS HOME FAV OVER

(129) CONNECTICUT AT (130) TEMPLEGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-04 TEMPLE (21) at CONNECTICUT (0) +10 44.5 TEMPLE ROAD FAV UNDER 2015-11-28 CONNECTICUT (3) at TEMPLE (27) -13 38.0 TEMPLE HOME FAV UNDER 2014-09-27 TEMPLE (36) at CONNECTICUT (10) +6 46.5 TEMPLE ROAD FAV UNDER 2013-11-23 CONNECTICUT (28) at TEMPLE (21) -6.5 52.5 CONNECTICUT ROAD DOG UNDER 2012-10-13 TEMPLE (17) at CONNECTICUT (14) -5 41.0 TEMPLE ROAD DOG UNDER

(133) VIRGINIA AT (134) NORTH CAROLINAGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-22 NORTH CAROLINA (35) at VIRGINIA (14) +10.5 68.5 NORTH CAROLINA ROAD FAV UNDER 2015-10-24 VIRGINIA (13) at NORTH CAROLINA (26) -16 59.0 VIRGINIA ROAD DOG UNDER 2014-10-25 NORTH CAROLINA (28) at VIRGINIA (27) -7 60.5 NORTH CAROLINA ROAD DOG UNDER 2013-11-09 VIRGINIA (14) at NORTH CAROLINA (45) -12 52.5 NORTH CAROLINA HOME FAV OVER 2012-11-15 NORTH CAROLINA (37) at VIRGINIA (13) +3.5 61.5 NORTH CAROLINA ROAD FAV UNDER

(135) RUTGERS AT (136) ILLINOISGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-15 ILLINOIS (24) at RUTGERS (7) +4 51.5 ILLINOIS ROAD FAV UNDER 2006-09-09 ILLINOIS (0) at RUTGERS (33) -10.5 52.0 RUTGERS HOME FAV UNDER 2005-09-03 RUTGERS (30) at ILLINOIS (33) +1.5 53.5 ILLINOIS HOME DOG OVER

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(137) TEXAS TECH AT (138) WEST VIRGINIAGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-15 WEST VIRGINIA (48) at TEXAS TECH (17) +3 81.5 WEST VIRGINIA ROAD FAV UNDER 2015-11-07 TEXAS TECH (26) at WEST VIRGINIA (31) -9.5 80.0 TEXAS TECH ROAD DOG UNDER 2014-10-11 WEST VIRGINIA (37) at TEXAS TECH (34) +6 76.5 TEXAS TECH HOME DOG UNDER 2013-10-19 TEXAS TECH (37) at WEST VIRGINIA (27) +3.5 57.5 TEXAS TECH ROAD FAV OVER 2012-10-13 WEST VIRGINIA (14) at TEXAS TECH (49) +3 75.0 TEXAS TECH HOME DOG UNDER

(139) NC STATE AT (140) PITTSBURGHGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2009-09-26 PITTSBURGH (31) at NC STATE (38) +1 48.0 NC STATE HOME DOG OVER 2001-12-20 * NC STATE (19) at PITTSBURGH (34) PK 47.5 PITTSBURGH xxxx xxx OVER

(141) MICHIGAN AT (142) INDIANAGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-19 INDIANA (10) at MICHIGAN (20) -24 50.0 INDIANA ROAD DOG UNDER 2015-11-14 MICHIGAN (48) at INDIANA (41) +13 56.0 INDIANA HOME DOG OVER 2014-11-01 INDIANA (10) at MICHIGAN (34) -7.5 51.5 MICHIGAN HOME FAV UNDER 2013-10-19 INDIANA (47) at MICHIGAN (63) -8.5 66.5 MICHIGAN HOME FAV OVER 2010-10-02 MICHIGAN (42) at INDIANA (35) +10 65.0 INDIANA HOME DOG OVER

(143) EAST CAROLINA AT (144) UCFGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-01 UCF (47) at EAST CAROLINA (29) -3 61.5 UCF ROAD DOG OVER 2015-11-19 EAST CAROLINA (44) at UCF (7) +16 51.5 EAST CAROLINA ROAD FAV UNDER 2014-12-04 UCF (32) at EAST CAROLINA (30) -6.5 55.0 UCF ROAD DOG OVER 2012-10-04 EAST CAROLINA (20) at UCF (40) -12 45.0 UCF HOME FAV OVER 2011-11-19 UCF (31) at EAST CAROLINA (38) +7 51.0 EAST CAROLINA HOME DOG OVER

(147) BOSTON COLLEGE AT (148) LOUISVILLEGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-05 LOUISVILLE (52) at BOSTON COLLEGE (7) +24.5 51.5 LOUISVILLE ROAD FAV OVER 2015-10-24 BOSTON COLLEGE (14) at LOUISVILLE (17) -7.5 37.0 BOSTON COLLEGE ROAD DOG UNDER 2014-11-08 LOUISVILLE (38) at BOSTON COLLEGE (19) +3 45.5 LOUISVILLE ROAD FAV OVER

(149) KANSAS AT (150) IOWA STGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-12 IOWA ST (31) at KANSAS (24) +10 55.0 KANSAS HOME DOG xxxx 2015-10-03 KANSAS (13) at IOWA ST (38) -20 59.5 IOWA ST HOME FAV UNDER 2014-11-08 IOWA ST (14) at KANSAS (34) +2 52.0 KANSAS HOME DOG UNDER 2013-11-23 KANSAS (0) at IOWA ST (34) -3.5 47.0 IOWA ST HOME FAV UNDER 2012-11-17 IOWA ST (51) at KANSAS (23) +3.5 45.0 IOWA ST ROAD FAV OVER

(151) TCU AT (152) KANSAS STGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-12-03 KANSAS ST (30) at TCU (6) -4 50.0 KANSAS ST ROAD DOG UNDER 2015-10-10 TCU (52) at KANSAS ST (45) +9 61.0 KANSAS ST HOME DOG OVER 2014-11-08 KANSAS ST (20) at TCU (41) -6.5 59.0 TCU HOME FAV OVER 2013-11-16 TCU (31) at KANSAS ST (33) -11 45.0 TCU ROAD DOG OVER 2012-11-10 KANSAS ST (23) at TCU (10) +6.5 56.0 KANSAS ST ROAD FAV UNDER

(153) OLD DOMINION AT (154) MARSHALLGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-05 MARSHALL (14) at OLD DOMINION (38) -9.5 58.0 OLD DOMINION HOME FAV UNDER 2015-10-03 OLD DOMINION (7) at MARSHALL (27) -17 54.0 MARSHALL HOME FAV UNDER 2014-10-04 MARSHALL (56) at OLD DOMINION (14) +19 73.5 MARSHALL ROAD FAV UNDER

(155) FLORIDA ST AT (156) DUKEGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2013-12-07 * FLORIDA ST (45) at DUKE (7) +30 66.5 FLORIDA ST xxxx FAV UNDER 2012-10-27 DUKE (7) at FLORIDA ST (48) -27 54.5 FLORIDA ST HOME FAV OVER 2011-10-15 FLORIDA ST (41) at DUKE (16) +12.5 58.5 FLORIDA ST ROAD FAV UNDER 2007-10-27 DUKE (6) at FLORIDA ST (25) -17.5 49.0 FLORIDA ST HOME FAV UNDER 2006-10-14 FLORIDA ST (51) at DUKE (24) +23 43.0 FLORIDA ST ROAD FAV OVER

(157) HOUSTON AT (158) TULSAGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-15 TULSA (31) at HOUSTON (38) -22.5 68.0 TULSA ROAD DOG OVER 2015-10-03 HOUSTON (38) at TULSA (24) +9 79.5 HOUSTON ROAD FAV UNDER 2014-11-22 TULSA (28) at HOUSTON (38) -19.5 56.5 TULSA ROAD DOG OVER 2012-11-10 TULSA (41) at HOUSTON (7) +3.5 66.5 TULSA ROAD FAV UNDER 2011-11-25 HOUSTON (48) at TULSA (16) +1.5 77.0 HOUSTON ROAD FAV UNDER



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(159) MIDDLE TENN ST AT (160) UABGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2014-10-18 UAB (22) at MIDDLE TENN ST (34) -2 66.5 MIDDLE TENN ST HOME FAV UNDER 2013-11-02 MIDDLE TENN ST (24) at UAB (21) +3.5 64.0 UAB HOME DOG UNDER 2000-10-21 MIDDLE TENN ST (9) at UAB (14) -12 NL MIDDLE TENN ST ROAD DOG

(161) GEORGIA ST AT (162) LA MONROEGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-12 LA MONROE (37) at GEORGIA ST (23) -12.5 52.0 LA MONROE ROAD DOG OVER 2013-10-26 GEORGIA ST (10) at LA MONROE (38) -15.5 52.0 LA MONROE HOME FAV UNDER

(165) WYOMING AT (166) UTAH STGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-05 UTAH ST (28) at WYOMING (52) -4 56.0 WYOMING HOME FAV OVER 2015-10-30 WYOMING (27) at UTAH ST (58) -25.5 48.0 UTAH ST HOME FAV OVER 2014-11-07 UTAH ST (20) at WYOMING (3) +7.5 48.0 UTAH ST ROAD FAV UNDER 2013-11-30 WYOMING (7) at UTAH ST (35) -24 59.0 UTAH ST HOME FAV UNDER 2011-10-08 WYOMING (19) at UTAH ST (63) -10.5 55.0 UTAH ST HOME FAV OVER

(167) UNLV AT (168) AIR FORCEGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2014-11-08 AIR FORCE (48) at UNLV (21) +4.5 57.0 AIR FORCE ROAD FAV OVER 2013-11-21 UNLV (41) at AIR FORCE (21) -2 59.0 UNLV ROAD DOG OVER 2012-09-22 AIR FORCE (35) at UNLV (38) +10.5 54.5 UNLV HOME DOG OVER 2011-11-19 UNLV (17) at AIR FORCE (45) -24 55.5 AIR FORCE HOME FAV OVER 2010-11-18 AIR FORCE (35) at UNLV (20) +19 56.5 UNLV HOME DOG UNDER

(169) NEVADA AT (170) COLORADO STGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2015-12-29 * NEVADA (28) at COLORADO ST (23) -5 55.0 NEVADA xxxx DOG UNDER 2014-10-11 COLORADO ST (31) at NEVADA (24) +2 64.0 COLORADO ST ROAD FAV UNDER 2013-11-09 NEVADA (17) at COLORADO ST (38) -8.5 65.5 COLORADO ST HOME FAV UNDER 2010-09-11 COLORADO ST (6) at NEVADA (51) -24.5 58.0 NEVADA HOME FAV UNDER 2009-09-19 NEVADA (20) at COLORADO ST (35) +5 57.0 COLORADO ST HOME DOG UNDER

(171) APPALACHIAN ST AT (172) IDAHOGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-22 IDAHO (19) at APPALACHIAN ST (37) -21 52.5 IDAHO ROAD DOG OVER 2015-11-14 APPALACHIAN ST (47) at IDAHO (20) +20 65.0 APPALACHIAN ST ROAD FAV OVER 2014-11-29 IDAHO (28) at APPALACHIAN ST (45) -17 63.5 x x x x x xxxx xxx OVER

(173) UTAH AT (174) USCGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-23 USC (27) at UTAH (31) -3 44.5 UTAH HOME FAV OVER 2015-10-24 UTAH (24) at USC (42) -6 57.0 USC HOME FAV OVER 2014-10-25 USC (21) at UTAH (24) -1.5 52.0 UTAH HOME FAV UNDER 2013-10-26 UTAH (3) at USC (19) -4.5 51.0 USC HOME FAV UNDER 2012-10-04 USC (38) at UTAH (28) +14 50.0 UTAH HOME DOG OVER

(175) COLORADO AT (176) OREGON STGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-01 OREGON ST (6) at COLORADO (47) -20 56.0 COLORADO HOME FAV UNDER 2015-10-24 COLORADO (17) at OREGON ST (13) -1 59.5 COLORADO ROAD DOG UNDER 2014-10-04 OREGON ST (36) at COLORADO (31) +4 52.5 OREGON ST ROAD FAV OVER 2013-09-28 COLORADO (17) at OREGON ST (44) -11 54.5 OREGON ST HOME FAV OVER

(177) UCLA AT (178) ARIZONAGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-01 ARIZONA (24) at UCLA (45) -12 58.5 UCLA HOME FAV OVER 2015-09-26 UCLA (56) at ARIZONA (30) +1 64.0 UCLA ROAD FAV OVER 2014-11-01 ARIZONA (7) at UCLA (17) -6.5 70.5 UCLA HOME FAV UNDER 2013-11-09 UCLA (31) at ARIZONA (26) -2 60.0 UCLA ROAD DOG UNDER 2012-11-03 ARIZONA (10) at UCLA (66) -3 72.5 UCLA HOME FAV OVER

(179) VANDERBILT AT (180) MISSISSIPPIGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-19 MISSISSIPPI (17) at VANDERBILT (38) +9.5 50.5 VANDERBILT HOME DOG OVER 2015-09-26 VANDERBILT (16) at MISSISSIPPI (27) -27 53.0 VANDERBILT ROAD DOG UNDER 2014-09-06 * VANDERBILT (3) at MISSISSIPPI (41) -18 49.5 MISSISSIPPI xxxx FAV UNDER 2013-08-29 MISSISSIPPI (39) at VANDERBILT (35) +3 52.5 MISSISSIPPI ROAD FAV OVER 2012-11-10 VANDERBILT (27) at MISSISSIPPI (26) -3 50.5 VANDERBILT ROAD DOG OVER


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(181) OKLAHOMA AT (182) TEXASGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-08 * OKLAHOMA (45) at TEXAS (40) +11.5 72.5 TEXAS xxxx DOG OVER 2015-10-10 * OKLAHOMA (17) at TEXAS (24) +15.5 59.5 TEXAS xxxx DOG UNDER 2014-10-11 * OKLAHOMA (31) at TEXAS (26) +16.5 44.5 TEXAS xxxx DOG OVER 2013-10-12 * OKLAHOMA (20) at TEXAS (36) +13.5 57.5 TEXAS xxxx DOG UNDER 2012-10-13 * OKLAHOMA (63) at TEXAS (21) +3 54.5 OKLAHOMA xxxx FAV OVER

(183) OHIO ST AT (184) NEBRASKAGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-05 NEBRASKA (3) at OHIO ST (62) -17.5 53.0 OHIO ST HOME FAV OVER 2012-10-06 NEBRASKA (38) at OHIO ST (63) -2.5 57.5 OHIO ST HOME FAV OVER 2011-10-08 OHIO ST (27) at NEBRASKA (34) -10 44.0 OHIO ST ROAD DOG OVER

(185) BYU AT (186) MISSISSIPPI STGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-14 MISSISSIPPI ST (21) at BYU (28) -7 56.5 x x x x x xxxx xxx UNDER 2001-12-01 BYU (41) at MISSISSIPPI ST (38) +6 61.5 MISSISSIPPI ST HOME DOG OVER 2000-09-14 MISSISSIPPI ST (44) at BYU (28) +1 40.0 MISSISSIPPI ST ROAD FAV OVER

(187) ARKANSAS AT (188) ALABAMAGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-08 ALABAMA (49) at ARKANSAS (30) +15 48.5 ALABAMA ROAD FAV OVER 2015-10-10 ARKANSAS (14) at ALABAMA (27) -15.5 48.0 ARKANSAS ROAD DOG UNDER 2014-10-11 ALABAMA (14) at ARKANSAS (13) +8.5 53.5 ARKANSAS HOME DOG UNDER 2013-10-19 ARKANSAS (0) at ALABAMA (52) -29 48.5 ALABAMA HOME FAV OVER 2012-09-15 ALABAMA (52) at ARKANSAS (0) +20 49.0 ALABAMA ROAD FAV OVER

(189) BAYLOR AT (190) OKLAHOMA STGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-24 OKLAHOMA ST (24) at BAYLOR (35) -7 73.5 BAYLOR HOME FAV UNDER 2015-11-21 BAYLOR (45) at OKLAHOMA ST (35) +2.5 76.5 BAYLOR ROAD FAV OVER 2014-11-22 OKLAHOMA ST (28) at BAYLOR (49) -32.5 68.0 OKLAHOMA ST ROAD DOG OVER 2013-11-23 BAYLOR (17) at OKLAHOMA ST (49) +7.5 78.0 OKLAHOMA ST HOME DOG UNDER 2012-12-01 OKLAHOMA ST (34) at BAYLOR (41) +4 87.0 BAYLOR HOME DOG UNDER

(191) MISSOURI AT (192) GEORGIAGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-17 GEORGIA (28) at MISSOURI (27) +7 54.0 MISSOURI HOME DOG OVER 2015-10-17 MISSOURI (6) at GEORGIA (9) -15 48.5 MISSOURI ROAD DOG UNDER 2014-10-11 GEORGIA (34) at MISSOURI (0) +3 57.5 GEORGIA ROAD FAV UNDER 2013-10-12 MISSOURI (41) at GEORGIA (26) -7 65.5 MISSOURI ROAD DOG OVER 2012-09-08 GEORGIA (41) at MISSOURI (20) +1 52.5 GEORGIA ROAD FAV OVER

(193) NAVY AT (194) MEMPHISGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-22 MEMPHIS (28) at NAVY (42) -1.5 57.0 NAVY HOME FAV OVER 2015-11-07 NAVY (45) at MEMPHIS (20) -10.5 63.5 NAVY ROAD DOG OVER

(195) NEW MEXICO ST AT (196) GEORGIA SOUTHERNGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-22 GEORGIA SOUTHER (22) at NEW MEXICO ST (19) +14 64.5 NEW MEXICO ST HOME DOG UNDER 2015-10-17 NEW MEXICO ST (26) at GEORGIA SOUTHER (56) -31 62.0 NEW MEXICO ST ROAD DOG OVER 2014-10-04 GEORGIA SOUTHER (36) at NEW MEXICO ST (28) +17.5 62.0 NEW MEXICO ST HOME DOG OVER

(197) UTEP AT (198) SOUTHERN MISSGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-24 SOUTHERN MISS (34) at UTEP (7) +13.5 58.0 SOUTHERN MISS ROAD FAV UNDER 2015-10-31 UTEP (13) at SOUTHERN MISS (34) -23.5 59.5 UTEP ROAD DOG UNDER 2014-11-01 SOUTHERN MISS (14) at UTEP (35) -8 55.0 UTEP HOME FAV UNDER 2012-11-17 UTEP (34) at SOUTHERN MISS (33) +3.5 49.0 SOUTHERN MISS HOME DOG OVER 2011-10-29 SOUTHERN MISS (31) at UTEP (13) +10 59.5 SOUTHERN MISS ROAD FAV UNDER

(201) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO AT (202) NORTH TEXASGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-29 NORTH TEXAS (17) at TEXAS-SAN ANTON (31) -4 51.0 TEXAS-SAN ANTON HOME FAV UNDER 2015-10-31 TEXAS-SAN ANTON (23) at NORTH TEXAS (30) +7 54.5 NORTH TEXAS HOME DOG UNDER 2014-11-29 NORTH TEXAS (27) at TEXAS-SAN ANTON (34) -5.5 41.0 TEXAS-SAN ANTON HOME FAV OVER 2013-11-23 TEXAS-SAN ANTON (21) at NORTH TEXAS (13) -9.5 48.5 TEXAS-SAN ANTON ROAD DOG UNDER

(203) TEXAS A&M AT (204) FLORIDAGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2012-09-08 FLORIDA (20) at TEXAS A&M (17) PK 49.5 FLORIDA ROAD xxx UNDER



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Recent CFB Head to Head History(205) SOUTH CAROLINA AT (206) TENNESSEEGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-29 TENNESSEE (21) at SOUTH CAROLINA (24) +15.5 51.0 SOUTH CAROLINA HOME DOG UNDER 2015-11-07 SOUTH CAROLINA (24) at TENNESSEE (27) -17 60.0 SOUTH CAROLINA ROAD DOG UNDER 2014-11-01 TENNESSEE (45) at SOUTH CAROLINA (42) -6 55.0 TENNESSEE ROAD DOG OVER 2013-10-19 SOUTH CAROLINA (21) at TENNESSEE (23) +7 54.5 TENNESSEE HOME DOG UNDER 2012-10-27 TENNESSEE (35) at SOUTH CAROLINA (38) -13.5 55.0 TENNESSEE ROAD DOG OVER

(207) AUBURN AT (208) LSUGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-09-24 LSU (13) at AUBURN (18) +3 47.0 AUBURN HOME DOG UNDER 2015-09-19 AUBURN (21) at LSU (45) -6 50.0 LSU HOME FAV OVER 2014-10-04 LSU (7) at AUBURN (41) -7 55.0 AUBURN HOME FAV UNDER 2013-09-21 AUBURN (21) at LSU (35) -17 54.0 AUBURN ROAD DOG OVER 2012-09-22 LSU (12) at AUBURN (10) +18 45.0 AUBURN HOME DOG UNDER

(209) MICHIGAN ST AT (210) MINNESOTAGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2013-11-30 MINNESOTA (3) at MICHIGAN ST (14) -17 42.5 MINNESOTA ROAD DOG UNDER 2012-11-24 MICHIGAN ST (26) at MINNESOTA (10) +7.5 39.0 MICHIGAN ST ROAD FAV UNDER 2011-11-05 MINNESOTA (24) at MICHIGAN ST (31) -27.5 47.5 MINNESOTA ROAD DOG OVER 2010-11-06 MINNESOTA (8) at MICHIGAN ST (31) -24 59.0 MINNESOTA ROAD DOG UNDER 2009-10-31 MICHIGAN ST (34) at MINNESOTA (42) +3.5 45.5 MINNESOTA HOME DOG OVER

(211) OREGON AT (212) STANFORDGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-12 STANFORD (52) at OREGON (27) +3 58.5 STANFORD ROAD FAV OVER 2015-11-14 OREGON (38) at STANFORD (36) -10 65.5 OREGON ROAD DOG OVER 2014-11-01 STANFORD (16) at OREGON (45) -7 56.5 OREGON HOME FAV OVER 2013-11-07 OREGON (20) at STANFORD (26) +10 60.0 STANFORD HOME DOG UNDER 2012-11-17 STANFORD (17) at OREGON (14) -18.5 67.5 STANFORD ROAD DOG UNDER

(213) WASHINGTON AT (214) ARIZONA STGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-11-19 ARIZONA ST (18) at WASHINGTON (44) -27 63.5 ARIZONA ST ROAD DOG UNDER 2015-11-14 WASHINGTON (17) at ARIZONA ST (27) -2.5 51.0 ARIZONA ST HOME FAV UNDER 2014-10-25 ARIZONA ST (24) at WASHINGTON (10) +3.5 60.5 ARIZONA ST ROAD FAV UNDER 2013-10-19 WASHINGTON (24) at ARIZONA ST (53) -3.5 67.5 ARIZONA ST HOME FAV OVER 2010-10-09 ARIZONA ST (24) at WASHINGTON (14) +1 59.0 ARIZONA ST ROAD FAV UNDER

(215) NEW MEXICO AT (216) FRESNO STGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2014-09-26 FRESNO ST (35) at NEW MEXICO (24) +6.5 65.5 FRESNO ST ROAD FAV UNDER 2013-11-23 NEW MEXICO (28) at FRESNO ST (69) -34.5 68.5 FRESNO ST HOME FAV OVER 2012-10-27 FRESNO ST (49) at NEW MEXICO (32) +15 55.0 FRESNO ST ROAD FAV OVER

(217) BOISE ST AT (218) SAN DIEGO STGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2014-11-15 SAN DIEGO ST (29) at BOISE ST (38) -14 55.5 SAN DIEGO ST ROAD DOG OVER 2013-11-23 BOISE ST (31) at SAN DIEGO ST (34) +6 56.5 SAN DIEGO ST HOME DOG OVER 2012-11-03 SAN DIEGO ST (21) at BOISE ST (19) -16.5 49.5 SAN DIEGO ST ROAD DOG UNDER 2011-11-19 BOISE ST (52) at SAN DIEGO ST (35) +18.5 55.0 SAN DIEGO ST HOME DOG OVER

(219) SAN JOSE ST AT (220) HAWAIIGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-08 HAWAII (34) at SAN JOSE ST (17) -3 63.0 HAWAII ROAD DOG UNDER 2015-11-21 SAN JOSE ST (42) at HAWAII (23) +9 52.5 SAN JOSE ST ROAD FAV OVER 2014-11-15 HAWAII (13) at SAN JOSE ST (0) -10 54.0 HAWAII ROAD DOG UNDER 2013-10-05 SAN JOSE ST (37) at HAWAII (27) +3 57.0 SAN JOSE ST ROAD FAV OVER 2011-10-14 HAWAII (27) at SAN JOSE ST (28) +6 56.0 SAN JOSE ST HOME DOG UNDER

(221) CINCINNATI AT (222) SOUTH FLORIDAGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-01 SOUTH FLORIDA (45) at CINCINNATI (20) +7.5 64.5 SOUTH FLORIDA ROAD FAV OVER 2015-11-20 CINCINNATI (27) at SOUTH FLORIDA (65) +1 66.5 SOUTH FLORIDA HOME DOG OVER 2014-10-24 SOUTH FLORIDA (17) at CINCINNATI (34) -10 60.0 CINCINNATI HOME FAV UNDER 2013-10-05 CINCINNATI (20) at SOUTH FLORIDA (26) +10 47.0 SOUTH FLORIDA HOME DOG UNDER 2012-11-23 SOUTH FLORIDA (10) at CINCINNATI (27) -14 50.5 CINCINNATI HOME FAV UNDER

(223) GEORGIA TECH AT (224) MIAMI FLGAME DATE ROAD TEAM HOME TEAM LINE OU ATS/OU RESULTS 2016-10-01 MIAMI FL (35) at GEORGIA TECH (21) +8.5 53.0 MIAMI FL ROAD FAV OVER 2015-11-21 GEORGIA TECH (21) at MIAMI FL (38) +2.5 56.5 MIAMI FL HOME DOG OVER 2014-10-04 MIAMI FL (17) at GEORGIA TECH (28) -1.5 58.0 GEORGIA TECH HOME FAV UNDER 2013-10-05 GEORGIA TECH (30) at MIAMI FL (45) -5 55.5 MIAMI FL HOME FAV OVER 2012-09-22 MIAMI FL (42) at GEORGIA TECH (36) -14 61.0 MIAMI FL ROAD DOG OVER

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CFB ObservationsSOMETIMES YOU HAVE TO PLAY ALL FOUR QUARTERSOklahoma had Iowa State right where they wanted them, leading 24-10 just a couple minutes before halftime as a 30-point home favorite. Instead of doing what top teams are supposed to, the Sooners assumed they would just turn it on against Cyclones who were using backup quarterback. However, early in the fourth quarter Iowa State began to believe and took a 31-24 lead and ended up engineering the enormous upset 38-31. First-year coach Lincoln Riley said his team had talked about not letting off the gas, but it did. Let’s see how the Sooners handle Red River Rivalry this week with improving Texas squad.

If you had Auburn at -22, the outcome could have not have been any more disgusting against Mississippi. Leading 38-3 in the third quarter and thoroughly dominating Ole Miss, the Tigers played like they just wanted the game to end and became casual on offense and defense, and with just under 180 seconds remaining in the contest, the Rebels scored a meaningless touchdown and came through the backdoor as 45-24 losers, beating the spread. Most game-day bettors got a push at -21, but either way, the results were unsatisfying. The Tigers better be ready for a fight at LSU this week!

On the other side of the coin, Wisconsin, Washington State, Georgia and Ohio State had the right mindset and won handily, covering the spread.

MICHIGAN STATE WAS BETTER THAN MICHIGANIf you watched the Spartans and Wolverines, particularly before the weather turned nasty, Michigan State did a better job in filling the gaps against the Michigan running game and had a clever blocking scheme to prevent defensive penetration.

Maybe Michigan does not have as many turnovers without the wind and rain, but there is a reason coach Mark Dantonio has covered 10 straight in battles with the Wolverines and is 22-11-1 ATS as an underdog coach.

Don’t be surprised if Michigan is laser-focused for Indiana and whips them badly.

DID THIS REALLY HAPPEN?It only took 7 OT’s for Western Michigan to hold off Buffalo 71-68, in the highest-scoring game ever at this level of football. But at least if you have the Bulls at +7, you got a win!

GIVE THEM WHAT THEY WANTWashington coach Chris Peterson has never been a complainer, which is why his whining about his team playing at 10:00 pm or later Eastern Time because of TV, was sort of unusual. Totally understand he wants to secure image points so the Huskies are not left out of Final 4 if it becomes that close. But the best course of action is keep winning and by beating spreads continually, this thing called the - internet - will get the word out. Otherwise, I agree, ESPN and FOX should take up Peterson and Huskies up on that and have them play a couple 12 noon Eastern games (9:00 am Pacific) the rest of the season.

A LOOK AT THE BETTING NUMBERSAfter a bad week against the odds, favorites were on the positive side this past week at 28-24-3 ATS against the closing numbers, winning 43 of 55 games played. This was in spite of MAC underdogs posting a 5-1 ATS mark.

For the six straight week, the UNDER was the most profitable way to play overall at 31-24.

WATCH YOUR STEP TROUBLE AHEADNow that we are at the halfway point of the season, this is where upsets can come out of nowhere. We still have not had that - one week - that turns the sport upside, but we know it is coming.

Here are contests that could have eye-popping results SU or against the spread:• Washington State -13.5 at California • Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas • Florida -3 hosting Texas A&M• Michigan State -4 at Minnesota• Washington -17 at Arizona State

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