Upload
others
View
5
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Investor Presentation February 2019
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s
current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations
reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and
changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.
Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have
any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Content
3
• Refining Market Slides 4-10
• Turkish Market Slides 12-15
• Company Overview Slides 16-24
• Operations Slides 26-31
• Key Financials Slides 33-44
• Outlook Slides 46-50
• Appendix Slides 52-56
CONTENT
REFINING
MARKET
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
65.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Brent
Brent Crude Oil Prices ($/bbl)
5
CONS • Increase in number of rigs & shale
production in US
• Inventory Levels
• Impact of trade tariff negotiations
• Weak PMI in Europe and China
PROS
• OPEC+ supply cut through 2018 – 1H 2019
• Political instabilities in Middle East, Africa
and Latin America
• Healthy PMI data in developing countries
• Potential impact of sanctions
36.5
REFINING INDUSTRY
Source : Platts
As of February 15th.
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Refinery Capacity Change
6
530 526
0 0302
-5
-775-546
520
0
400120
390
-140
305
-352
270
0
510
0
198
-443
63
-189
244
300
417
150
40
-130
364
-57
70
0
156
-220
76
-143
105
-268
420
120
-116
244
46
-91
0
200
36
330
200
343
160
200
-2750
-1600
-450
700
1850
3000
China India Middle East Other Asia Other Japan North America Europe
2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
1.7 1.8
1.01.3
0.30.6
1.51.3
0.6
1.8
1.1
1.5
0.0
0.5
0.9
1.4
1.8
2.3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Thousand Barrels/Day
Source:, Reuters, International Energy Agency, Tüpraş, sector reports and news.
Net Capacity Additions (mb/d)
REFINING INDUSTRY
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Middle Distillate Cracks ($/bbl)
7
7.2
10.0
10.4
11.5
12.1 12.212.6
13.614.3
13.7 13.6
15.9
14.1
15.5
19.5
15.014.915.9*
0
4
8
12
16
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017 2018 2019
6.6
9.19.5
11.411.9
14.4
13.714.4
13.913.2 13.3
14.4
12.5
14.3
18.1
15.214.4
13.7*
0
4
8
12
16
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Diesel Jet Fuel
REFINING INDUSTRY
Source : Platts
As of February 15th.
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
18.6
11.913.5
9.710.210.6
12.0 12.1
13.0 13.1 13.4
14.4
9.6
5.55.0
3.51.7 1.6*
0
6
12
18
24
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017 2018 2019
Gasoline and High Sulphur Fuel Oil Cracks ($/bbl)
8
-12.5
-10.2
-8.7
-12.2
-13.2
-11.9
-12.7
-15.2
-13.0
-9.1
-8.3 -8.5
-13.2
-10.9
-3.7
-6.8
-7.0
-4.8*
-20
-17
-14
-10
-7
-4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Gasoline High Sulphur Fuel Oil
REFINING INDUSTRY
Source : Platts
As of February 15th.
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Quarterly Product Crack Margins ($/bbl)
9REFINING INDUSTRY
Compared to Q4 2017, healthy mid-distillate environment continued in Q4 (Diesel:+34%, Jet: +33%)
supporting cracks, HSFO remained strong (+29%), while Gasoline cracks were weaker (-57%).
13
19 19
1415
15
11
1313
14
15
1110.9
12.7
12.5
4.7
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Gasoline
16 1515
11
8
9 9
1111
11 13
1212.3
13.914.5
16.7
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Diesel 2015 2016 2017 2018
14
1111
9
7 8 8
1010 10
1212
13.3
13.813.4
15.9
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Jet Fuel
-12 -12
-13 -16
-13 -15
-11-9
-9
-7 -7
-10
-12.6 -12.4
-10.0
-7.1
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
High Sulphur Fuel Oil
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Crude Price Differentials ($/bbl)
10
Heavy Crude differentials narrowed in Q4 with Iran sanctions, OPEC+ cut decision and higher interest
for fuel oil.
Heavy Crude Price Differentials
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
15
Q1
15
Q2
15
Q3
15
Q4
16
Q1
16
Q2
16
Q3
16
Q4
17
Q1
17
Q2
17
Q3
17
Q4
18
Q1
18
Q2
18
Q3
18
Q4
Iran Heavy Kirkuk Kuwait Basra Heavy Arab Heavy Ural
Brent
Source : Platts
As of february 15th.
Opec Cut
DecisionOpec Cut
Decision
Iran
Sanctions
REFINING INDUSTRY
TURKISH
MARKET
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Turkish Consumption 2015-2017 (Million tons)
12
Diesel
-4%
Jet Fuel
0.49
0.58
0.60
0 0 0 0 1 1
2017
2016
2015
Fuel Oil*Gasoline
+6.5%-3.5%
24.17
22.31
20.56
10 14 17 21 24
2017
2016
2015+8.5%
+8.3%+2.7%
+3.1%-15.7%
REFINING INDUSTRY
2.30
2.23
2.10
2017
2016
2015
4.52
4.40
4.58
2017
2016
2015
*Bunker excluded.
Source: EMRA
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Strong Turkish Market, 11M 2018 (Million tons)
13REFINING INDUSTRY
• Tüpraş is well positioned in a growing, short market.
• Diesel and jet fuel consumption in Turkey grew in the first 11 months of 2018 with infrastructure projects and
aviation growth.
*Bunker excluded.
Source: EMRA
4.61
4.22
4 4 5 5
2018
2017
Diesel
+9,0%
Jet Fuel
0.34
0.44
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018
2017
Fuel Oil*
2.16
2.12
2018
2017
Gasoline
+4,2%
+1,7% -21.2%
23.13
22.20
6 9 12 14 17 20 23
2018
2017
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Turkey’s Import / Export Balance (Net) (Million Tons)
14
-3.1
2.4
-12.0
1.0
0.0
-3
3
-13
10
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
LPG Gasoline Diesel Fuel Oil Jet
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Import
Export
REFINING INDUSTRY
Source: EMRA
COMPANY
OVERVIEW
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
14%
86%
Tüpraş Shareholder Structure
16
Energy Investments Inc. (SPV)
Free Float
*Distribution of Domestic/
Foreign Ownership of Tüpraş
Shares
*As of February 15th, 2019.
Foreign
Ownership
Domestic
Ownership
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Tüpraş Refining Assets & Distribution Network
17
Turkey Storage
Capacity
Tüpraş : 58%
Opet : 9%
Other Companies : 33%
İzmit
• 11.0 MT Capacity
• NC: 14.5
• Storage Capacity: 3.03 mn m3
İzmir
• 11.0 MT Capacity
• NC: 7.66
• Storage Capacity:2.51 mn m3
• Base oil 400 k tons
Kırıkkale
• 5.0 MT Capacity
• NC: 6.32
• Storage Capacity: 1.41 mn m3
Batman
• 1.1 MT Capacity
• NC: 1.83
• Storage Capacity:0.25 mn m3
Total Capacity : 28.1 mn ton
Nelson Complexity : 9.5
Tüpraş Storage Cap. : 7.2 mn m3
OPET Storage Cap. : 1.1 mn m3
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr 18COMPANY OVERVIEW
Nelson Complexity of Refining Companies
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (Million Tons)
19
6 610
2 2 33 3 1 0
12 13 1310 10 10
2
1715
1114 14
7
14
65 6763
7176
7981
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Africa America Europe CIS Middle East
In 2018, Tüpraş purchased 20 different types of crude oil from 12 countries, with gravities ranging between
19-47 API.
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr 20
Dist.; 50%
THY Opet; 10%
Jet; 6%
LPG; 3%
Other; 6%
Export; 14%
Bitumen; 10%
Military; 1%
POAŞ27%
OPET30%
SHELL17%
BP13%
TP1%
AKPET4%
OTHER8%
Customer Groups Sales to Distributors
Total : 29.8 mn tons Distributors : 14.8 mn tons
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Sales By Customer (2018)
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
OPET
21
830 885 915 938 966 1,009 1,073 1,126 1,152
394394
410 418 427435
431434
463
1,2791,325
1,325 1,3561,393
1,4441,504
1,5601,615
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Opet Sunpet
Opet expanded its retail footprint from 1,560 stations in December 2017 to 1,615 stations in
December 2018.
Market share as of
November 2018
White
Product
36.18%
Black
Product
17.78%
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr 22
• One of the biggest Turkish marine transportation companies of crude oil and petroleum products.
• Carries mainly Tüpraş’ crude oil purchases and makes the transfer operations of product and semi-products.
19.3
14.8
6.44.8
6.6
9.3
17.0
11.8
2.6
3.1
3.13.5
5.2
5.9
6.3
6.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Product Crude Oil
11 tugboats
7 mooring boats
2 service boats
1 pilot boat
213.5 mn $Net Sales
69.1 mn $Op. Profit
3 Crude Oil Tanker: 479,765 DWT
1 Crude Oil - Product Tanker: 51,532 DWT
7 Product Tanker: 90,534 DWT
COMPANY OVERVIEW
DİTAŞ, Marine Transport -Tüpraş Share 79.98%
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Körfez Ulaştırma A.Ş.- Tüpraş Share 100%
23
Körfez Ulaştırma A.Ş.
On 16/06/2018, Freight Train Operator Certificate.
On 20/09/2018, Safety Management Certificate received.
Operates with 491 cistern wagons and 5 diesel
locomotives.
Ordered 5 locomotives to be delivered for Q2-2019.
Turkey's First
Private Railway Operator
COMPANY OVERVIEW
(*) including TCDD.
– 2018 Körfez Rail Transport = 0.5 mn tons
– 2018 Total Rail Transport = 1.7 mn tons (*)
– 2019 Total Rail Transport > 2 mn tons(*)
~7% Market Share in
Turkish Rail Freight Market
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Enhancing our Trading Capabilities
24
๏ We have opened a trading office in London to:
๏ Trading office will be an important step in Tüpraş’s integration to global energy market.
Closely monitor
international market
opportunities,
Support import and
export operations,
Create additional value
from supply chain and sales
activities.
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume
99% Capacity Utilization in Q4 2018 (95% in Q4 2017), 96% for the whole year.
*Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 330 days of operations.
Quarterly Production (Million Tons)
4.5 4.6
5.4 5.5
5.6
6.9
7.37.4
6.66.7
7.27.4
7.1
7.87.7
6.3
5.2
6.2
7.7
6.6
4
5
6
7
8
9
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Capacity Utilization* (%)
71.3
98.1 100.9 101.4
90.0
67.3
85.4
107.2
89.03.6
4.4 4.4 6.7
5.0
10.7
7.1
7.3
9.0
75
103 105 108
95
78
93
115
99
2014 2015 2016 2017 Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018
Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock
12M 2018 CUR: 96%
OPERATIONS28
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Q4 2018 Product Yields
27
White Products %73.74
Production 6.3 mn tons
API 30.0
White Products %77.85
Production 6.6 mn tons
API 31.1
2017
LPG3%
Gasoline21%
Naphtha1%
Jet16%
ULSD31%
Other3%
Coke3%
Fuel Oil6%
Bitumen16%
Light Distil.24.9%
Mid. Distil.47.0%
Other 2.9%
Black Prod.25.2%
LPG3%
Gasoline19%
Naphtha3%
Jet17%
ULSD35%
Other1%
Coke3%
Fuel Oil9%
Bitumen9%
Light Distil.24.7%
Mid. Distil.52.8%
Other 1.5%
Black Prod.21.0%
2018
OPERATIONS
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
LPG4%
Gasoline20%
Naphtha1%
Jet17%
ULSD33%
Other2%
Coke3%
Fuel Oil7%
Bitumen12%
2018 Product Yields
28
White Products %76.27
Production 28.9 mn tons
API 30.3
White Products %77.39
Production 25.7 mn tons
API 30.99
2017
Light Distil.25.0%
Mid. Distil.50.3%
Other 2.1%
Black Prod.22.6%
LPG4%
Gasoline20%
Naphtha1%
Jet19%
ULSD33%
Other2%
Coke3%
Fuel Oil7%
Bitumen12%
Light Distil.24.6%
Mid. Distil.52.2%
Other 1.7%
Black Prod.21.5%
2018
OPERATIONS
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Domestic Sales (Million Tons)
29
We generated 29.8 million tons of total sales 2018. Jet fuel and diesel sales increased by 7.4% and
5.3% compared to 2017, respectively.
16.9
22.2
24.825.7 25.6
5.3
6.5
5.55.8
4.2
22.2
28.730.3
31.529.8
-1
5.25
11.5
17.75
24
30.25
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Domestic Sales Export
6.79.2
10.8 11.3 11.9
3.9
4.8
4.5 4.54.9
1.8
2.02.2 2.2
2.2
1.9
2.9
3.43.5 2.9
14.3
18.9
20.921.6 21.9
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Diesel Jet Fuel Gasoline Bitumen
Total Sales Domestic Sales of Key Products
OPERATIONS
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Investments (Million $)
30
• Revamp of Crude Unit
• FCC Modernization
• New Sulphur Units
• Energy Saving Projects
• Optimization of conversion units
• 9.5 Nelson complexity
• High white product yield
• Process more heavier and sour crudes
• Run all refineries with 100% capacity utilization
• 6 bn USD investments since privatization
Ongoing Projects
Avg. 247 mn$
Avg. 943 mn$
Avg. 278 mn$
274
355400
186177
628
974
1.213
959
344
213185
138
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
OPERATIONS
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
2018 Results
31
Refining Margins ($/bbl)
9.3
4.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
Tüpraş Net Margin Med Margin
99
104
113
96
2015
2016
2017
2018
Axis Title
Capacity Utilisation (%)
25.7
29.8
5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33
Production
Sales
2018 Operational (mn ton)
Capex (mn $)
213.0
185.0
138.0
2016
2017
9M 2018
• 96% Total Capacity
Utilization in 2018
• 29.8 mn tons of sales and
25.7 mn tons of production
in 2018
• 138 mn $ CAPEX in 2018
OPERATIONS
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Month
Annual
Margin Environment ($/bbl)
33
Tüpraş’ 9.3 $/bbl Net Refining Margin in 2018 was higher than 4.7 $/bbl Med Complex margin.
Premium to the benchmark Mediterranean
peers’ refining margin due to:
• Refined products deficit characteristic to
the Turkish market
• Access to cheaper sources of crude oil
• Ability to use heavier and sour crudes
• Proximity to major suppliers
• Reduces transport costs
• Implemented cost reduction measures
• Energy efficiency programs
• Capacity to produce higher value added range
of refined products
• Direct pipeline connections with domestic clients
• High export capability
Med Complex
4.56
5.30
3.97 4.83
1.67 1.95
4.21
1.17
2.89
1.95
5.54
9.610.6
11.911.2
12.9
14.7
2.53.2
6.56.0
8.1
9.3
1.7 2.0
4.84.0
5.34.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Tüpraş Gross Margin Tüpraş Net Margin Mediterranean
KEY FINANCIALS
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Income Statement
34
Strong EBITDA generation continued in Q4 2018, Net Income supported further with FX and tax
revaluation gains.
Million TL Q4 2018 Q4 2017 % 12M 2018 12M 2017 %
Net Sales 24,803 14,604 70 88,552 53,948 64
COGS -22,778 -13,204 73 -79,328 -47,734 66
Gross Profit 2,025 1,400 45 9,224 6,214 48
Operating Expenses -438 -357 23 -1,307 -1,150 14
Income/Loss from other operations 1,591 -265 -699 -2,181 -206 958
Operating Profit 3,178 778 308 5,736 4,857 18
Income/Loss from equity investment 72 61 18 257 234 9
Operating Profit Before Fin. Income/Loss 3,249 839 287 5,993 5,092 18
Financial Income /Expense -1,600 -85 1.786 -2,268 -618 267
Profit Before Tax 1,649 754 119 3,724 4,474 -17
Net Profit (including minority interest) 1,789 501 257 3,761 3,841 -2
EBITDA (*) 1,887 1,237 53 8,908 5,882 51
Inventory Gain/Loss -212 341 -162 2,741 612 348
EBITDA CCS (*) 2,100 896 134 6,167 5,270 17
* On CMB reports, EBIT includes extra items such as FX impacts of trade receivables and payables. In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are excluded from EBIT as customary in international practices.
KEY FINANCIALS
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Financial Highlights (Million TL)
35
Current Ratio & Net Debt/ EBITDA
EBITDA
Tüpraş achieved 1,887 MTL EBITDA in Q4 2018 with high capacity utilization and inventory gain.
Net Income
Return of Average Equity
24% 26%35%
22%
42%37%
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
130 513 278 83 876 387138
361 713
335
1,464
1,035819
379751
586
1,000
551
112217
822
809
501
1,789
1,1991,470
2,564
1,813
3,841 3,761
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
*Rolling EBITDA is calculated with dollar terms.
124
-77
367 335 1,575 1,033283-66
1,080 688
1,542 2,210
878489
1,144
867
1,528
3,778
1,066
340
1,2081,505
1,237
1,887
2,351
685
3,7993,396
5,882
8,908
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
4th Q
3rd Q
2nd Q
1st Q
1.22
5.63
1.81 1.79
1.061.34
0.940.82
0.991.08
1.15
1.31
0.0
0.4
0.7
1.1
1.4
0.00.61.21.82.43.03.64.24.85.46.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Net Debt/EBITDA
Current Ratio
KEY FINANCIALS
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
7 6.95.7
4.5 4.6 4.84 3.5
4.95.9
7.1
9.5
7.7
9.68.4
10.5
12.6
16.7
7.7
0
5
9
14
18
Jun
-14
Se
p-1
4
Dec-1
4
Ma
r-15
Jun
-15
Se
p-1
5
Dec-1
5
Ma
r-16
Jun
-16
Se
p-1
6
Dec-1
6
Ma
r-17
Jun
-17
Se
p-1
7
Dec-1
7
Ma
r-18
Jun
-18
Se
p-1
8
Dec-1
8
Balance Sheet Analysis (Billion TL)
36
1.1 1.2
0.2 0.5
1.8
3.32.6
2.02.6
2.2
3.24.0 4.0
5.65.1
5.7
6.9
9.4
5.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Jun
-14
Se
p-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Jun
-15
Se
p-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Jun
-16
Se
p-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Jun
-17
Se
p-1
7
De
c-1
7
Ma
r-1
8
Jun
-18
Se
p-1
8
De
c-1
8
0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.7 2.9 3.5 3.3 2.1 2.3
7.4 7.59.8 9.7
11.214.2 13.8
6.2 6.6 7.0 8.6 8.3 9.1 8.18.3 8.1 9.3
10.2 10.7
4.0 4.6
5.3 6.53.6
5.4 4.1
6.8 7.3 7.79.7 9.7
11.09.9
11.2 11.612.6 12.4 13.0
11.4 12.2
15.116.1
14.8
19.617.9
-2.9
0.0
2.9
5.7
8.6
11.4
14.3
17.1
20.0
Jun-1
4
Sep-1
4
Dec-1
4
Ma
r-15
Jun-1
5
Sep-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ma
r-16
Jun-1
6
Sep-1
6
Dec-1
6
Ma
r-17
Jun-1
7
Sep-1
7
Dec-1
7
Ma
r-18
Jun-1
8
Sep-1
8
Dec-1
8
ST Loans LT Loans
Strict financial management policies improved current ratio to 1.3x.
Cash & Cash Equivalents Receivables
PayablesFinancial Loans
2.83.7 3.9
3.22.8 2.5
3.0
4.7 4.6
7.3
6.1
7.4
5.5
7.8
8.8
6.85.9
10.0
6.0
0.0
2.4
4.8
7.2
9.6
12.0
Jun
-14
Se
p-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Jun
-15
Se
p-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Jun
-16
Se
p-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Jun
-17
Se
p-1
7
De
c-1
7
Ma
r-1
8
Jun
-18
Se
p-1
8
De
c-1
8
KEY FINANCIALS
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Q4 Profit Before Tax Bridge (2017-2018)
37
Q4 PBT growth driven by strong FX gain, higher white product yield and better crack margins.
Million TL
KEY FINANCIALS
754
1.649271
426846
31
553
126
Q4 2017 Crack Margin Production Inventory Loss Crude OilDifferential
FX Other Q4 2018
,
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
2018 Profit Before Tax Bridge
38
2018 PBT was lower mainly due to Crude Oil Differential and Crack Margin impacts. With the help of FX
based pricing, FX losses incurred from payables were recovered with Inventory Gains.
Million TL
KEY FINANCIALS
4.474
3.724
2.129
164
311
660
293
1.779
2017 Inventory Gain Crack Margin Crude OilDifferential
Production FX Other 2018
,
,
,
,
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Dividend (TL)
39
1.73
3.24 2.94
4.96
5.83
4.78
0.00
10.18
7.16
15.22
2.31 2.502.98
3.93 3.85
1.580.00
6.50 6.20
13.60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Earings per Share Gross Dividend Total Payout
One of the highest dividend
yield in BIST
2012/2013 EPS includes the tax incentive.
KEY FINANCIALS
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Tüpraş Balance Sheet
40
Million TL 31/12/2018 31/12/2017 Difference % Difference
Current Assets 20,962 20,366 596 3
Cash & C. Equivalents 5,983 8,802 -2,819 -32
Receivables 5,429 5,027 402 8
Derivatives 176 347 -171 -49
Inventories 6,765 5,291 1,474 28
Pre-paid expenses 109 62 46 74
Other Current Assets 2,502 837 1,665 199
Long Term Assets 19,074 17,797 1,277 7
Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 1,271 1,148 123 11
Fixed Assets 12,397 12,369 29 0
Derivatives 168 101 68 67
Pre-paid expenses 378 99 279 281
Deferred Tax 3,566 3,068 498 16
Other Long Term Assets 1,293 1,013 280 28
Total Assets 40,036 38,163 1,873 5
Short Term Liabilities 15,950 17,676 -1,726 -10
Financial Loans 4,113 5,274 -1,160 -22
Payables 7,663 8,370 -707 -8
Derivatives 236 177 59 33
Deferred Incomes 5 20 -16 -76
Provisions 80 90 -10 -11
Other ST Liabilities 3,852 3,745 107 3
Long Term Liabilities 24,086 20,487 3,599 18
Financial Loans 13,836 9,777 4,059 42
Payables & Provisions 257 224 34 15
Derivatives 42 3 39 1,156
Other LT Liabilities 5 5 -1 -13
Equity 9,825 10,373 -549 -5
Minority Interests 121 104 17 16
Total Liabilities 40,036 38,163 1,873 5
KEY FINANCIALS
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Creating Competitive & Sustainable Shareholder Value
41
71%
29%
Buy Hold
Foreign Currency
Long Term
Tüpraş BB+(Neg.) Ba2 (Negative)
Türkiye BB (Neg.) Ba3 (Negative) B+ (Stable)
Koç Holding Ba2 (Negative) BB- (Stable)
Analyst Recommendations
92.9
99.5
94.0
95.5
94.8
0 25 50 75 100
Board
Stakeholders
Transparency
Shareholders
Overall
Tüpraş has one of the highest Corporate Governance Ratings.
KEY FINANCIALS
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Financial Policy
42
Financial Discipline: Risk management policies focusing on areas such as leverage, liquidity, counterparty risk, commodity,
interest and currency exposure.
KEY FINANCIALS
Leverage
& Liquidity• Net financial debt/EBITDA
• Net financial debt/Equity
Proactive in liquidity risk management & targets/limits for financial ratios:
• Current ratio
• Share of long term debt
Counterparty
Risk Policy
• Credit rating assessment and strong capital base.
• Cap on the maximum deposit allocated to a single bank.
• Threshold for deposits subject to banks shareholders’ equity.
Deposit is kept within bank-based limits
Interest
Rate & Fx
• The fixed/floating profile of financial debt.
• Zero FX exposure target.
Commodity
Hedging
Policy
• Operational hedge: Optimum stock policy & forward pricing mechanism.
• Financial hedge: Expected inventory exposure for the year end is hedged by using derivatives.
• Hedging ratio increasing throughout the year.
Inventory Hedging Policy:
• Financial hedge: Crack margin (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil) risk mitigation by using derivatives.
• Statistical / mechanical approach: Historical average prices + standard deviations.
• Hedge ratio between %0-%50 with up to 1 year hedge tenor.
Crack Margin Hedging Policy:
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
FX Exposure Management (31 December 2018)
43
* Cash flow hedge accounting : 874 mn $
Tüpraş continues to employ strict FX policies to
mitigate currency risks stemming from volatility.
• A significant portion of the Group's crude oil and refined
product purchases are denominated in US Dollars. In
addition, the Group finances its capital expenditures
mostly through borrowings denominated in US Dollars.
• Natural Hedge: The Group is able to mitigate some of the
impact of volatility in exchange rates through natural
hedges: crude oil and refined product inventories are US
Dollar denominated assets.
• Cash flow Hedge: RUP Facility financing loans
designated as hedging instruments of highly probable
export revenues.
• As a general Koç Holding financial policy, Group
companies are allowed to keep foreign exchange
positions within certain limits.
KEY FINANCIALS
Consolidated
Assets
Consolidated
Liabilities
Cash
955
Receivables &
other assets
136
Stock
1,201
Forward & CFH
1,500
Payables
1,189
ST Financial
598• RUP : 182
• Other: 416
LT Financial
1,994• RUP : 780
• Eurobond 700• Other Loans : 514
+11 mn $
Million $
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Tüpraş: Growing, Resilient, Profitable
44
Tüpraş is a compelling investment case with strong sales growth, resilient and profitable operational
and financial structure.
• Operating in a diesel short market
(supplies 45% of the market) , along with
strong jet growth.
• Well poised to capture future
opportunities including IMO 2020 with its
output complexity.
• Continuous investment in logistics,
infrastructure and trading capabilities.
• Strong balance sheet with no
immediate rollover requirement.
• Secure receivables portfolio, tight
working capital management.
• Pricing mechanism in place to address
commodity and FX fluctuations.
• Benefits from full system optimization
given high complexity, procurement and
logistics flexibility.
• Prudent hedging practices to ensure
stable earnings Outlook.
• High dividend pay-out ratio annually.
Growing Resilient Profitable
KEY FINANCIALS
OUTLOOK
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
2019 Refinery Maintenance Schedule
46
RUP Maintenance to start on February 26, 2019.
Unit QuarterDuration
(weeks)Reason
İzmir
Plt 100 Crude Oil Q4 2-3 Periodic Maintenance
Plt 9200 CCR Q1 2-3 Periodic Maintenance
İzmit
RUP Q1&Q2 12-13 Detailed Maintenance
Plt 2 Crude Oil & Vacuum Unit Q4 7-8 Periodic Maintenance
Plt 7 FCC Q4 5-6 Periodic Maintenance
Kırıkkale - - - -
Batman Plt 1100 Crude Oil & Vacuum Unit Q1&Q2 *3-4 Periodic Maintenance
* Total duration allocated among quarters
RUP Maintenance
Preparation and
planning phase: 2018
Maintenance Start: Feb 26
• Catalyst changes
• Checks on distillation columns, heat
exchangers and furnaces
• Detailed planned maintenance
Completion:
planned as late May 2019
OUTLOOK
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
2019 Expectations
47
Med Complex margin expectation in 2019 is 3.75 – 4.25 $/bbl.
Net Tüpraş refinery margin expectation in 2019 is 6.0 – 7.0 $/bbl.
• Capacity utilization target is 95-100%.
• Production: ~28 million tons
• Total sales: ~30 million tons
Refining investments expectation is 250 Million $.
Med Complex
Margin
Tüpraş
Net Margin
Operations
Investment
OUTLOOK
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Competition # 1 (SOCAR-STAR Refinery)
48
• Goldman Sachs has acquired a 13% stake in SOCAR Turkey for $1.3 billion.
• Goldman Sachs has the right to resell 10% of its stakes to Socar, and the remaining 3% to
‘Sermaye Investments Limited’ owned by SOCAR within 6 years at the same price.
STAR Refinery (Total Cap. 10 mn ton)
2019
mn ton
Production
Turkish
DemandBalance
Tüpraş Star Total
LPG 1.1 0.3 1.4 4.1 -2.7
Petchem Feeds 0.2 2.6 2.8
Gasoline 6.1 6.1 2.4 3.7
Jet Fuel 5.2 1.6 6.8 5.2 1.6
Diesel 10.7 4.5 15.2 26.5 -11.3
Coke 0.8 0.7 1.5 4.6 -3.1
Fuel Oil 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.5
Bitumen 3.1 3.1 3.1
Star Refinery Production Numbers (k ton)
Fuels
Petrochemical
Feedstock
Diesel 4,500
Jet Fuel 1,600
Sulphur 158
Petrocoke 698
LPG 260
Naptha 1,600
Mixed xylene 460
Reformate 524
• 3.3 billion $ credit agreement. First
4 years grace period total 15-18
years term.
• Project finance is supplied to company
(1.5 Billion $).
• It is operational as of 2019.
Credit : 3.3 Billion $
Equity : 2.4 Billion $
Total
Investment: 5.7 Billion $
OUTLOOK
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Competition # 2 (Regional Competition)
49
• Tüpraş is competing with 71 refineries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea markets.
• Mediterranean regional product balance is also affected from Middle East, North West Europe and Asia.
Mediterranean Black Sea
54 Refineries
7.8 mn bpd
17 Refineries
1.8 mn bpd
OUTLOOK
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Marine Bunker Specification Changes and Its Effects
50
IMO, at the meeting held in October 2016, lowered the sulphur emission cap from marine bunkers
from 3.5% to 0.5% (5000ppm): Effective from 1 January 2020.
• Use of lower sulphur blend stocks like ULSD (Diesel)
• Low Sulfur Fuel Oil production with light crudes
• Sulphur Fuel Reduction Systems (Scrubber)
• LNG
Requirements of spec change can be achieved through; • 80% of global trade is done via
marine transportation.
• 50.000 vessels are in operation.
Bunker fuels account for;• ~5% of global oil demand
• 40% of oil related sulphur emissions.
2016
%74
Buy Low Sulphur Fuel
%19
Install Scrubber
%5 switch
to LNG
%2
Other
Ship Owners Intention Survey2020 2022
OUTLOOK
. .
Appendix
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
High Complexity (Resid Upgrading Units Production-(Thousand Tons)
52
Natural Gas 246
Vacuum Resid
1,214
Atm. Resid
3,036
Total Feed 4,496
Total Production
4,250
Raw Materials Products
APPENDİX
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Flexibility & Reliability; Multiple routes to maksimum capacity
53
• Increased
conversion capacity
• Strong
integration among
refineries
APPENDİX
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Competition (European Pump Price Comparison)
54
Not: Prices valid on 11 February 2019.
Gasoline (Krş / Lt)
211
324
210 233292
236294
242
62 65 4764 61
330
409 516 529 528554 595 596
604
733
791 809 820854
889 898
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
0
250
500
750
1000
TR Spa. Ger UK Eu19 Fra. Gre. Ita.
Pump No Tax Distr. Marg. Tax
Diesel 10 (Krş / Lt)
266
360
263347
395
273 286 275
63 78 69 55 63
272
349 398434
406 504 524 540601
709739
782 801847 865 878
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
TR Spa. Ger. EU19 Gre. Fra. Ita. UK
APPENDİX
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Tüpraş HSE KPI: Loss Time Incident Frequency and Severity Frequency Ratios
55
loss time incident freaquency rate =number of incident *1000000/man hours
loss severity frequency rate = loss time*1000000/man hours
APPENDİX
Investor Presentation
www.tupras.com.tr
Koç Holding
56
Turkey’s Leading Investment Holding Company
Turkey’s largest industrial and services group in terms
of revenues, exports, employees, taxes paid
and market capitalization.
Leading positions with clear competitive advantages in
sectors with long-term growth potential such as energy,
automotive, consumer durables and finance.
Pioneer in its Sectors
• The only Turkish company in Fortuna 5001.
• 20% CAGR in consolidated profit2 the last five years.
Notes : Data as of YE18, 2018 GDP reflects the projection of Turkish government’s New Economic Program.
(1) 2018 Report
(2) In TL terms between 2014-18
Turkey’s Leading Investment Holding Company
APPENDİX
Combined Revenues / GDP 8%
Total Exports / Turkey’s Exports 10%
Total MCap on Borsa Istanbul 16%