www.sustainableroadfreight.org

A technology roadmap for freight

decabonisation

OECD Freight Decarbonisation Workshop

David Cebon

28 June, 2018

Contents

1. Key Factors

2. Roadmap

3. Conclusions

A

Technology and Logistics both matter!

Laden both directions

Unladen return journey

-40%

-25%

Technologies for reducing fuel consumption and CO2

Barriers to mainstream adoption (Technical, Economic, Political)

Low High

Re

du

ctio

n o

f G

ree

nh

ou

se G

ase

s

10%

20%

30%

Medium

Higher Capacity Vehicles

Electrification (Urban, 2025)

Dual Fuel

Vehicle Technologies Aerodynamics

Light-weighting Refrigeration Low RR tyres

More efficient diesel Improved transmissions

Fuels and lubricants

Dedicated CNG/LNG

Dedicated compressed

Bio Gas Hydraulic Hybrids

Platooning

Autonomous Vehicles Hydrogen 2040

Best solutions

Driver Feedback?

Driver training

Routing Telematics

Dedicated Bio Gas

Exhaust heat recovery

Electric Hybrids

Tyre pressure

Smoother roads

Electrification (Urban, 2035)

eHighway (Long-haul,

2040)

40%

28%

KgCO2 Savings vs Operation Type

A-Double: A-double/33t-44t artic Aero Kit: Aerodynamic Kit AMT: Automated Manual Transmission AVs: Autonomous vehicles B5: Biodiesel B5 B10: Biodiesel B10 B20: Biodiesel B20 EHR: Exhaust heat recovery EMS: European Modular System/33t-44t artics Engine-off: Engine-off when stationary Fixed DD: Powered to fixed double decks LRR Tyres: Low rolling resistance tyres TIM: Tyre inflation management 7.5t: 7.5t/3.5t 17t: 17t/7.5t Upto 33t: 33t/25t

Electric artics 5.5e9 KgCO2/t-km

Long Haul Regional Urban

Routing

Port Centric Logistics

Consolidation centres

Co-Modality

Crowd sourced logistics

Physical Internet

Vehicle Fill

Co-loading

Logistics measures for reducing fuel

consumption and CO2

Barriers to mainstream adoption (Corporate, Technical, Economic, Political)

Low High

Be

st-c

ase

ove

rall

imp

act

5%

10%

15%

Medium

Backhaul

Home Delivery Of

Groceries

Best solutions

Retiming Deliveries Last mile

solutions

Drones

Road-mapping Methodology

1. Expert focus groups on 12 major measures

2. Techno-economic modelling of decarbonisation

potential and adoption rates

3. Timelines for each measure

Focus Group: Gas and Dual Fuel Roadmap

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

1. ‘Positive NPV’ Highest impact measures: • Driver training; aerodynamics;

EMS vehicles; • Electrified urban delivery • Retiming off-peak; optimised

routing; backhaul; synchronised consolidation

2. ‘Incentivised uptake’ As for ‘Positive NPV’ + substantial adoption of methane and dual fuel

3. ‘Electrification of Long Haul’

SRF Roadmap – 3 scenarios

EV Adoption – Scenario 3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%2

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Artic Large rigid Small rigid

Small Rigid

Small Rigid

Artic

Timeline for Logistics Measures

A Logistics Network for Electrification

City

City

Home delivery: Battery EV

National or Regional DC

National or Regional DC

Local DC /Supermarket /UCC

All batteries < 85 kWh (Tesla ‘S’) Refuse collection:

Battery EV/Opp. charge

Convenience stores & shops

Urban delivery from UCC: Battery EV/Opp. charge

Trunk network: Charge-in-motion

Advantages of Opportunity Charging: • Smaller, lighter, cheaper batteries • More payload • Lower CO2 emissions • Much lower charging power overnight Similar concept for charge-in-motion

Battery capacity

20% final SoC to preserve battery life

Battery capacity Charging

cycles

Opportunity Charging

50

06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00 03:00

Hours

0

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Ener

gy S

tore

d (

kWh

)

Overnight Charging

Overnight vs Opportunity Charging

Conclusions

1. 80% CO2 reduction by 2050 is only achievable with electrification most heavy goods vehicles

2. Battery EVs are viable for urban areas

3. Opportunity Charging infrastructure provides huge advantages…

4. Long-haul EVs require charge-in-motion

5. Overhead wires are the most likely solution for highways

A new era of infrastructure investment is required!