www.sustainableroadfreight.org
A technology roadmap for freight
decabonisation
OECD Freight Decarbonisation Workshop
David Cebon
28 June, 2018
Contents
1. Key Factors
2. Roadmap
3. Conclusions
A
Technology and Logistics both matter!
Laden both directions
Unladen return journey
-40%
-25%
Technologies for reducing fuel consumption and CO2
Barriers to mainstream adoption (Technical, Economic, Political)
Low High
Re
du
ctio
n o
f G
ree
nh
ou
se G
ase
s
10%
20%
30%
Medium
Higher Capacity Vehicles
Electrification (Urban, 2025)
Dual Fuel
Vehicle Technologies Aerodynamics
Light-weighting Refrigeration Low RR tyres
More efficient diesel Improved transmissions
Fuels and lubricants
Dedicated CNG/LNG
Dedicated compressed
Bio Gas Hydraulic Hybrids
Platooning
Autonomous Vehicles Hydrogen 2040
Best solutions
Driver Feedback?
Driver training
Routing Telematics
Dedicated Bio Gas
Exhaust heat recovery
Electric Hybrids
Tyre pressure
Smoother roads
Electrification (Urban, 2035)
eHighway (Long-haul,
2040)
40%
28%
KgCO2 Savings vs Operation Type
A-Double: A-double/33t-44t artic Aero Kit: Aerodynamic Kit AMT: Automated Manual Transmission AVs: Autonomous vehicles B5: Biodiesel B5 B10: Biodiesel B10 B20: Biodiesel B20 EHR: Exhaust heat recovery EMS: European Modular System/33t-44t artics Engine-off: Engine-off when stationary Fixed DD: Powered to fixed double decks LRR Tyres: Low rolling resistance tyres TIM: Tyre inflation management 7.5t: 7.5t/3.5t 17t: 17t/7.5t Upto 33t: 33t/25t
Electric artics 5.5e9 KgCO2/t-km
Long Haul Regional Urban
Routing
Port Centric Logistics
Consolidation centres
Co-Modality
Crowd sourced logistics
Physical Internet
Vehicle Fill
Co-loading
Logistics measures for reducing fuel
consumption and CO2
Barriers to mainstream adoption (Corporate, Technical, Economic, Political)
Low High
Be
st-c
ase
ove
rall
imp
act
5%
10%
15%
Medium
Backhaul
Home Delivery Of
Groceries
Best solutions
Retiming Deliveries Last mile
solutions
Drones
Road-mapping Methodology
1. Expert focus groups on 12 major measures
2. Techno-economic modelling of decarbonisation
potential and adoption rates
3. Timelines for each measure
Focus Group: Gas and Dual Fuel Roadmap
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
1. ‘Positive NPV’ Highest impact measures: • Driver training; aerodynamics;
EMS vehicles; • Electrified urban delivery • Retiming off-peak; optimised
routing; backhaul; synchronised consolidation
2. ‘Incentivised uptake’ As for ‘Positive NPV’ + substantial adoption of methane and dual fuel
3. ‘Electrification of Long Haul’
SRF Roadmap – 3 scenarios
EV Adoption – Scenario 3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%2
01
0
20
11
20
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50
Artic Large rigid Small rigid
Small Rigid
Small Rigid
Artic
Timeline for Logistics Measures
A Logistics Network for Electrification
City
City
Home delivery: Battery EV
National or Regional DC
National or Regional DC
Local DC /Supermarket /UCC
All batteries < 85 kWh (Tesla ‘S’) Refuse collection:
Battery EV/Opp. charge
Convenience stores & shops
Urban delivery from UCC: Battery EV/Opp. charge
Trunk network: Charge-in-motion
Advantages of Opportunity Charging: • Smaller, lighter, cheaper batteries • More payload • Lower CO2 emissions • Much lower charging power overnight Similar concept for charge-in-motion
Battery capacity
20% final SoC to preserve battery life
Battery capacity Charging
cycles
Opportunity Charging
50
06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00 03:00
Hours
0
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Ener
gy S
tore
d (
kWh
)
Overnight Charging
Overnight vs Opportunity Charging
Conclusions
1. 80% CO2 reduction by 2050 is only achievable with electrification most heavy goods vehicles
2. Battery EVs are viable for urban areas
3. Opportunity Charging infrastructure provides huge advantages…
4. Long-haul EVs require charge-in-motion
5. Overhead wires are the most likely solution for highways
A new era of infrastructure investment is required!