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Andy Pearch | 30.01.17 |
This document is copyright to MediaSense Communications Ltd (MediaSense). All rights are reserved.
MACRO
3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Digital ad spend to exceed £10B in 2017 (50% of all media spend)
Mobile to exceed desktop in 2017 and account for 62% of digital
display revenues by 2020
Source: MediaSense Adspend database
4
£4.1
£2.0
£0.4
£0.8
£0.0
£0.5
£1.0
£1.5
£2.0
£2.5
£3.0
£3.5
£4.0
£4.5
£5.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Publishers Print revenue Publishers Digital revenue
Source: MediaSense Adspend database
5
4% average growth per year in annual UK ad
spend
Offline media share to fall from
74% (2010) to 46% (2020)
TV share to end the decade significantly
lower (23%) than at the start
(26%)
Print share to fall by two-thirds in
10 years (to 10%). Digital revenues to
offset 1 in 4 lost £s.
Desktop display to lose share each year as
Mobile becomes pre-eminent
Mobile to leapfrog TV in
2018
VOD revenues (£1.5B) to
exceed News Print revenues by
2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Digital (Other)
Display (Mobile)
Paid Search (Mobile)
Paid search (PC)
Display (PC)
Cinema
Radio
DM/Door Drops
OOH
Broadcasters
Source: MediaSense Adspend database
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Linear TV All VOD
Source: MediaSense Adspend database
7
TV advertising revenue, a leading economic indicator
post-Brexit has seen declines since the
vote.
H1 2017 estimates range from flat to -
5%, we would estimate declines at
the higher end of this scale.
Even allowing for stability in H2, the market looks likely to decline by 2% on
a FY basis
Source: MediaSense TV SAP database
8Source: Nielsen Media Research / MediaSense TV SAP database
9Source: BARB / Techedge
10Source: BARB / Techedge
11
2%2%
4%5%
4%4%
5%4%
5%
4%
6%
6%
9%
6%
9%
7%
14%
12%
2010 2016
Source: Nielsen Media Research
12
Millions
Source: Nielsen Media Research
13
14
MICRO
16Source: BARB
17
+17% +16% +12% +16%
Each major sporting event is worth
approximately an additional 2% to
ITV’s annual spot revenue
They also have the ability to support
revenue across the year. ITV prefers
‘supportive’ advertisers.
Source: MediaSense TV SAP database
18Source: MediaSense TV SAP database
19Source: BARB / Techedge
20Source: BARB / Techedge
21Source: Nielsen Media Research / MediaSense Insights
22Source: MediaSense TV SAP database
23
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Andy Pearch
Director
+44 (0) 203 637 0566
www.media-sense.com
