Understanding emergent strategy

The ISS Triangle, reallyBiz strategy

IS strategyOrg’l strategy

Biz strategy

IS strategyOrg’l strategy

Biz strategy

Org’l strategy IS strategy

analysis Implementation

IS strategy --> Biz strategy

Biz strategy

Org’l strategy IS strategy

Implementation

simplemeasurements

Surfacing secrets

What should you be looking for?

Emphasize learning

Seek outliarsSeparate evaluation from information

Forsake BSchool teachings: What do *you* need to know?Focus on high-quality Y’s, not enforced X’s

What do you do with it when you find it?

Every single complex system is ‘intervention resistant’

The organization’s whirlpools

You need to see the whole system to be able to plan and act effectively

Turning measurement into insight

!Basic concepts"Expansion cycles"Equilibrium cycles"Time

!Archetypes

Expansion cycles: Money and interest

Capital

Interest

Accumulated interest

R

Interest rate

“The sky is the limit” vs. “This is going from bad to worse”

B

Equilibrium cycle:Managing shower temperature

Water temp.

Temperature difference

Faucet position

Desired temperature

“We’re going nowhere”

B

Time’s arrow

Managing the temperature of two showers

A’s water temperature

T Gap A

A’s faucet position

A’s desired temperature

B

B’s water temperature

T Gap B

B’s faucet position

B

B’s desired temperature

Two people in a shower

Archetypes

Archetypes

I want to grow

!Limits to growth*

!Sucess to the successful*

!Eroding goals

!Growth and underinvestment

I want to solve problems

!Unintended consequences*

!Shifting the burden*

!Accidental adversaries

!Escalation

Grow: Limits to growth

Grow: Limits to growth

If you don’t plan for limits, you’re planning for failure

Elimininate or reduce the limit

Be aware of equilibrium while growing

Question the need for growth

Grow: Sucess to the successful

Grow: Sucess to the successful

Rewarding good performance is often rewarding luck with initial conditions

Evaluate success metrics

Evaluate path towards success

Help unsuccessful instead of withdrawing resources

Solve: Unintended consequences

Solve: Unintended consequences

Quick solutions make problems worse

Focus on potential negative effects

Look for a fundamental solution

Avoid using the quick fix to gain time

Solve: Shifting the burden

Solve: Shifting the burden

Quick fixes reduce the ability to solve problems

Identify quick fixes and fundamental solutions

Focus on the fundamental solution

Use the quick fix to gain time (last resort)

Exercise

Word-of-mouth marketing strategy

Time is T45

Challenge: Use the model to define a strategy to increase the number of customers

Simplified model

Complete model

Complete model

My assumptions

New potential customers

= Customers in other markets

x Advertising sucess rate

- Clients in other markets: 1 million

- Advertising success rate: 5%

Potential and real clientsBefore After

Increase social contactsIncrease the effectiveness of contacts

Conclusion: Planning is...

Objectives Context

Problem

Decision

Results

Decisions

ObjectiveContext

Results