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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Fellow, Centre for Management Development, London Business School
TakeHoldoftheFutureHowtrendswillimpactmanufacturing
Complexity and scale
create risks
Title Text
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US / EU block on Chinese solar cells
ClicktoeditMastertextstyles
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Trade strategies often overtaken by
events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
Time to move factory ?
Agility
CLOSER SUPPLIES
Yet many trends changing more
slowly than people think
Cash growing - bank branches continue -
music, fashions, food, trains, planes, hotel rooms, homes and
furniture very similar
Digital Enterprise 4.0
REALITY CHECK
Robots in Factories only 7% pa
92,000-170,000 2000-2012
3D scans - 3D printing
The future is about
The future is about
EMOTION
Up to 70% of sales of new convenience stores from people
who live
40% of adults in UK dont know by 4pm what
they will eat for dinner tonight
Instant information
Fast Fashion 15 days design / order to market - 28% savings on unwanted markdowns, lost sales or stockouts
MOBILE 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
Loca9onMarke9ng
Over4000roadhauliersinEU
1.3bnhomedeliverede-comitemsinUKayear(+12%pa)
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Gold standard:10am orders for 3pm Delivery
Anywhere in same country
10amordersfor3pm
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LARGER SCALE
VW mega platform
VWMegaPlaTorm-basisfor1mcars
Over700,000kmsdriven
World too small for more than:
5 large auto companies2 airline manufacturers
3 mobile operating systems
10 large pharma
CUSTOM BUILD
Multi-product assembly lines
Niche Manufacturers
EMERGING DEMANDS
30 years
85% of world population will be living in emerging
markets in 10 years
Science,technologyengineering,
maths
MostSTEMgraduatesinemergingmarkets
ChinaandIndiadominate
STEMdegreesincludingpost-graduate/PhDs
SOUTH to
SOUTH
Since 1980, global trade has grown at twice the rate of production but this trend is slowing down rapidly
South to South Trade will grow
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Regional trade growth in Asia $ / %
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Expect huge growth in component trade
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World exports of parts and components
FACTORY MOVES
8%wageinfla9oninChina-partoffsetbycurrencyfall
NearshoringBoom
ManufacturinginMexicowillgrowforUS
LIVE DATA
Internet of Things
1.5m components tracked perfectly in Airbus supply chain
250millionwearabledevicesby2023
$20bnto$70bnby2025
$12bn security and controlhome automation market by 2018
Big Data
Predict failure - detect error - repair automatically
Little Data often matters
most
Big Data = Pattern Little Data = Piece Little Data = Person
Global and Mobile Control
CYBER SECURE
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WebofThings-BigData-Cloud180bnspamemailsaday
600mnewviruses,malware,trojansayear>220mpeoplesdetailslostinsingleadack70%largecorpora9onshavebeenhacked
100,000adacksanhouronUSNavyParalysisofEstoniagovernmentin2007
WorriesaboutUS,Russia,Chinapenetra9onofweb/cloudfollowingPrism
GREENER PROCESS
$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
75% global growth in green energy is in China
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
Output up 10% in 2014
SolarCells$/wad1990-2015
subsidies
PriceParity
InJune2013electricitypricesin
30% EU trucks run empty
Wewaste25million
milesayeardrivingempty
trucks
USmajorretailer
>15% energy saving / ton for 75 cents a litre
CO2 emissions stable for 24
months of global economic growth
Complexitycreatesrisk-needforagilitySpeedwillbeevenmoreimportant
MobileclientsandproductswillshakeretailEmergingmarketsbecomedominantExpectmassivewavesofconsolida9onExpectshijfromglobaltoregionaltrade
Nextdigital=fusion:IOT-BIGDATA-CLOUDPrepareformajorcyber-disrup9ons
WorldwillgogreenfarfasterthanexpectedRemembertheRealityCheck:9mingreallymaders
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
globalchange.com15millionvisitors
5millionvideoviews
@patrickdixon
http://globalchange.com