Global Trends, Disruptive events, VUCA leadership agility - MCE Futurist Keynote Speaker Patrick Dixon

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Body Level Five Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

Fellow, Centre for Management Development London Business School

TheFutureofAlmostEverythingGlobaltrends,disrup;veeventsandleadershipdevelopment

Ins;tu;onalBlindnessinEveryLeader

do things you really believe in Life is Short

Complexity and scale create risks

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Leadership Development overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting

Agility

Yet many trends changing more slowly

than people think

Cash growing - bank branches continue -

music, fashions, food - homes look the same, robots, 3D printing etc

Robots in Factories only 7% pa 92,000-170,000 2000-2012

3D scans - 3D printing

What is the future of the global

ECONOMY

WGP(%,constantprices)

VietnamGDP1985-2011

$3.4trillion($50trillionby2020globally)

>>$2.4trillion

Reserves

One word will dominate ALL

FUTURE

The future is aboutEMOTION

Up to 70% of sales of new convenience

stores from people who live

40% of adults in UK dont know by 4pm what they will eat for dinner tonight

85% of world population will be living in emerging

markets in 10 years

1% owns 50%

1 billion will migrate over next 30 years

Science,technologyengineering,

maths

MostSTEMgraduatesinemergingmarkets

ChinaandIndiadominate

STEMdegreesincludingpost-graduate/PhDs

Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child

1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time

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>65%spend>65years

1billion>60by2020

1weekevery4

following coronary, stroke or sight loss using adult stem cells

Repair Heart / Brain / Eyes with stem cells

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After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay

Monkeys on diet live longer

Read your genes in 2 hours for

$2000

Slow or no ageing is a reality

Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales

No signs of getting old

Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam 405 years

Some animals do not age in normal way

Language - Music Culture - History

1trillionpagesamonth

People love Cities and Offices

ReproduceownimageTendtorecruitpeoplewithfamiliarname,voice,

accent,personality,culture,appearance

85%ofleadersoflargestUScorporaWonssaydiversityiskey

toinnovaWon

Forbesstudy

Diversitylinkedtohighersales,marketshareandprofits,talentrecruitment-andmoreaccurateunderwriWng

Big Data = Pattern

Little Data = Person

Globalised+BarriersIncreasingScale

InmanyEUnaWons,upto70%ofretailspendingisin

World too small for more than:2 airline manufacturers

3 mobile operating systems10 large pharma

5 large auto companies

With rapid growth of niche manufacturing

8%wageinflaWoninChina-partoffsetbycurrencyfall

NearshoringBoom

Since 1980, global trade has grown at twice the rate of production but now growing LESS than production

MOBILE >50% of all online sales in many

nations are using mobile

LocaWonMarkeWng

isnextBIGTHING

Internet of Things

2bn new smart home devices a year by 202027% of Internet of Things will be in homes

MobilePayment

Mobiledevicesalreadyusedtomakepaymentsofover$640bnpa-growing40%annually

40%ofKenyaseconomyisnowcarriedoutusingm-Pesaplaeormalone-e-walletlikeEZ-Cash

90%MicrosogR&D SalesForceR&D>$3bnpa

CLOUD

180bnspamemailsaday600mnewviruses,malware,trojansayear>220mpeoplesdetailslostinsinglealack70%largecorporaWonshavebeenhacked

100,000alacksanhouronUSNavyParalysisofEstoniagovernmentin2007

WorriesaboutUS,Russia,ChinapenetraWon

$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism

Shale gas 33% US supplies

3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil

produced than Saudi by 2020

200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years

75% global growth in green energy was in China in 2014

SolarCells$/wal1990-2015

subsidies

PriceParity

SurplusPowertoGas:13EUplants/26planned

EnergyusehashalvedperunitofproducWoninEUchemicalindustry

overlast20years

CO2 emissions stable for 24

months of global economic growth

Beyond Compliance

do things you really believe in Life is Short

AllleadershipcomesfromVISIONofabelerfuture

TeamsintophalfofEngagement 86% more likely to have better customer metrics 70% more likely to have low staff turnover 70% more likely to be highly productive 44% more likely to be profitable

Gallup meta-survey > 10 million people

LessonfromNon-ProfitsandAcWvists

Connectwithallthepassionspeoplehaveandtheywillfollowyoutothe

endsoftheearth,promotewhatyoudowithpride,andmayevenbewillingto

workforyoufornexttonothing

.andthefourwordphraseis.

BuildingaBelerWorld

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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

globalchange.com@patrickdixon#MCE55