Upload
charlene-li
View
4.325
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Presentation on February 17, 2011 that provides a framework for companies to evaluate and prioritize disruptive technologies.
Citation preview
1
February 17, 2011
Charlene LiFounder and Partner
Hot Or Not: Disruptive Technologies To Watch in 2011
© 2011 Altimeter Group
2
Source: Wordle.net
© 2011 Altimeter Group
3
Prioritizing disruptions that matter
User Experience•Is it easy for people to use?
•Does it enable people to connect in new ways?
Business Model•Does it tap new revenue streams?
•Is it done at a lower cost?
Ecosystem Value•Does it change the flow of value?
•Does it shift power from one player to another?
© 2011 Altimeter Group
“How personal relationships, individual opinions, powerful storytelling and social capital are helping brands…become more believable.”
1) Likenomics (credit to Rohit Bhargava)4
Understand the supply, demand, and thus, value of Likes as social currency
See http://bit.ly/rohit-likenomics for Rohit’s take
© 2011 Altimeter Group
Likenomics evaluation5
User experience impact - moderate
• People with high social currency will enjoy benefits, richer experiences, receive psychic income.
• People with low social currency will find ways to get it.
Business model impact – moderate
• New economics create opportunity for people who understand Likenomics to leverage gas.
• The cost of accessing social currency will increase, and raise barriers to entry.
Ecosystem value impact – none
© 2011 Altimeter Group
Special deals for special people
• Group Buying, Flash Sales, Member Sales, etc.
• Gilt, Ruelala, iDeeli, Facebook Deals
Local sales and retailers
• Group buying variation: Groupon and Living Social
• In-store check-ins: Shopkick and Checkpoints
Dynamic pricing
• Off and Away and Swoopo
Mobile price checking
• Amazon mobile apps, eBay platform
New payment methods: Square and Facebook Credits
2) Buy 2.06
© 2011 Altimeter Group
How shopping will change7
I walk into the store
And maps out planned and
promoted products
Store knows it’s me
© 2011 Altimeter Group
Buy 2.0 evaluation8
User experience impact - High
• New ways to buy and connect with each other and retailers.
Business model impact – Moderate
• Acquisition costs can increase/decrease substantially with adoption.
• Increased noise/clutter requires more marketing.
Ecosystem value impact – Moderate
• New entrants like GroupOn become intermediaries.
© 2011 Altimeter Group
9
3) Social Search – Beyond Friends
Social sharing rises as a search ranking signal, esp in the enterprise
Create a social content hub to gain traction
Use microformats to highlight granularity (e.g. hProduct & hReview)
© 2011 Altimeter Group
Social Search evaluation10
User experience impact - Moderate
• Search becomes more useful, relevant to people.
Business model impact – Moderate
• SEO takes on a different dimension, rewards companies with social currency, personalized experiences.
Ecosystem value impact – Moderate
• New power brokers are social data/profile players who capture activity data and profiles.
• Google has little of either.
© 2011 Altimeter Group
Social monitoring merges with Web analytics
• HOT: Omniture, Coremetrics/IBM, Webtrends
Technology like Hadoop makes it easy for companies to tap “Big Data”
• E.g. New York Times making its archives public
• Twitter archived by Library of Congress
• Facebook Cassandra, Amazon Dynamo, Google BigTable
Data visualization tools make it easy to digest
Balancing privacy and personalization
4) Big Data11
© 2011 Altimeter Group
Big Data evaluation12
User experience impact - Low
• Most users won’t directly experience Big Data.
Business model impact – High
• New businesses and initiatives can be started at very low cost.
Ecosystem value impact – Moderate
• Owners of Big Data repositories can assert control, demand payments for access.
© 2011 Altimeter Group
13
5) Enterprise Social Networking
© 2011 Altimeter Group
Enterprise Social Networking evaluation14
User experience impact – High
• Work gets social, employees get connected to each other.
Business model impact – Moderate
• Work gets done faster, cheaper.
• New organizational structures and cultures emerge.
Ecosystem value impact – Moderate
• Traditional enterprise application players face new, more nimble entrants.
© 2011 Altimeter Group
15
6) Game-ification
© 2011 Altimeter Group
TurboTax used “games” to encourage sharing and support
16
Social design can enter training, collaboration, support, hiring
© 2011 Altimeter Group
Gamification evaluation17
User experience impact – High
• Experiences get richer, more engaging
Business model impact – Moderate
• Work gets done faster, cheaper.
• New organizational structures and cultures emerge.
Ecosystem value impact – Low
• Service providers will remain focused, boutique firms.
© 2011 Altimeter Group
18
7) Print extensions
QR Codes
Imagine images as
Bit.ly codes
© 2011 Altimeter Group
Print extensions evaluation19
User experience impact – Moderate
• Users get new ways to get information quickly.
• No need to download special software, understand quirky images.
Business model impact – Moderate
• Leverage print investment to extend further into buying process.
• Impacts importance of SEO.
Ecosystem value impact – Low
• Standards, not new service providers, play a role.
© 2011 Altimeter Group
Print extensions evaluation20
User experience impact – Moderate
• Users get new power, earn social status, when they become curators.
Business model impact – Moderate
• Lower cost of acquisition.
Ecosystem value impact – Moderate
• Standards, not new service providers, play a role.
© 2011 Altimeter Group
8) DIY and Co-creation21
© 2011 Altimeter Group
DIY an Co-creation evaluation22
User experience impact – Moderate
• Users become more loyal/engaged with organizations that invite them in.
• Develop a sense of shared ownership in the success of the organization.
Business model impact – High
• Reduced merchandising costs.
• Reduced marketing costs due to viral loop.
Ecosystem value impact – Low
• Mostly home-grown, internal development.
© 2011 Altimeter Group
23
9) Curation
© 2011 Altimeter Group
Curation evaluation24
User experience impact – Moderate
• Users gain new power as market influencers.
Business model impact – Low
• Low unless tapped as part of Co-creation initiative.
Ecosystem value impact – Moderate
• Power shifts to users who steal attention and loyalty from established players.
© 2011 Altimeter Group
25
Not Hot Yet in 2011: Augmented Reality
When scanning tech improves, will get hot
© 2011 Altimeter Group
Augmented Reality evaluation26
User experience impact – Moderate
• Still hard to use, limited availability.
• But when available, creates unique, new experience.
Business model impact – Low
• Unclear if new experiences lower costs, raise revenues.
Ecosystem value impact – Low
• Few intermediaries emerge in new experiences.
• Usually home-grown.
© 2011 Altimeter Group
27
To Watch: Quora – Quality Q&A?
Monitor your brand
Engage by being helpful
© 2011 Altimeter Group
User Experience Business Model Value Networks
Likenomics Moderate Moderate Low
Buy 2.0 High Moderate Moderate
Social Search Moderate Moderate Moderate
Big Data Low High Moderate
Enterprise Soc Net High Moderate Moderate
Gamification High Moderate Low
Print extensions Moderate Moderate Low
DIY/Co-creation Moderate High Low
Curation Moderate Low Moderate
Augmented reality Moderate Low Low
Summary of disruptions28
© 2011 Altimeter Group
Bonus #1: Transparency
© 2011 Altimeter Group
30
Bonus #2: Leadership
How to be out of control and
still in command
© 2011 Altimeter Group
It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives.
It is the one that is most adaptable to change.
- Charles Darwin
Preparing for disruption31
© 2011 Altimeter Group
Charlene Li
charleneli.com/blog
Twitter: charleneli
For slides, send an email to
For more information & to buy the
book
visit open-leadership.com
© 2010 Altimeter Group