36
October 2021(R2109) All rights reserved. @Copyright 2021 Joseph McCabe, President 855.734.4590 ext. 1001 The Global Automotive Outlook and the Disruptive Forces Shaping the Future Presented to: Automotive Tooling Outlook October 14, 2021 Laurel Manor, Michigan

The Global Automotive Outlook and the Disruptive Forces

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

PowerPoint PresentationJoseph McCabe, President 855.734.4590 ext. 1001
The Global Automotive Outlook and the Disruptive Forces Shaping the Future Presented to:
Automotive Tooling Outlook
October 2021(R2109) All rights reserved. @Copyright 2021
Scenario
Planning
Forecast
Portfolio
AFS Forecast • Global Production Detail • Vehicle, Engine, Transmission, Motor,
Drivetrain, & Electrification • BEV, PHEV, HEV, FCEV, IC • History + 8 Year Outlook • Updated Weekly & Monthly • Web-Based Reporting Suite • AFS Market Alerts
AFS Scenario • Outlook Adjustment • Proactive Approach to Prepare for Market
Shifts • Forecast Performance Comparison • Budget vs. Current Forecast Analysis • Secure, Web-based Interface • Integrate with AFS Forecast & Planning
AFS Portfolio • Opportunity Identification • Market Share Mapping • Competitor Analysis • Gap Analysis • Secure, Web-Based Interface • Integrate with AFS Forecast & Scenario
AFS Planning • Part Number, Pipeline/RFQ Management • Real-Time Sales Forecasting • Risk Assessment • Opportunity Identification • Budget vs. Current Analysis • Capacity planning • Secure, Web-based Interface • Integrate with AFS Forecast & Scenario
AFS Services: Forecasting & Business Intelligence Solutions
Understand opportunities Develop a value proposition Identify areas of risk & growth.
AutoForecast Solutions. Dr iv ing Data into Decisions.
October 2021(R2109) All rights reserved. @Copyright 2021
Competing in a Disruptive Global Market • Consumer preference vs. market direction
• Ability vs. Necessity (The Demand Imperative)
• Shareholder value
• Program lifecycle and cadence adjustments
• Innovation in product and strategy
• Investment strategies
• Regulations & incentives
• Partnerships, collaboration, cooperation, & standardization
3
Semiconductor Shortage Impact Analysis: Global Scenario
5
• Announced Plant Impact Analysis: Volume projections based on the reduction in production and/or shutdown at a plant level, window of time left in the year to recover, and volume impact levels/recoverability. Analysis performed at the vehicle detail level and summarized in charts above to reflect short, mid, and long-term impact to 2021 total production. Using the AFS plant workday analysis algorithm. Announced volumes are represented by the sum of the Recoverable, At Risk, and Unrecoverable categories.
• AFS Scenario Analysis: Additional forecasted production volume impact (above and beyond the Announced) analyzing the long-term disruption in the semiconductor supply chain. Using AFS scenario forecasting services. • Assumption: Due to the timing of the semiconductor shortage impact on the automotive industry, AFS presumes that a majority of plants with a net workday impact less than 21 days will be Recoverable within the 2021
calendar year. Plants categorized At Risk have a net workday impact of 22-30 days. Plants in the Unrecoverable (regional volumes shown on right report; total shown on left report)status, either have over 30 days of net shutdown or assemble a vehicle which may not need to be backfilled (i.e. high inventory cars and CUVs). Plants with room for overtime can potentially recover volume, while plants that traditionally run at full-speed may not be able to recover all of the lost volume. Expect short-term volumes to be impacted, and recovered through shift/labor balancing. If this issue continues for a considerable amount of time, adjustments to the assumptions may be necessary.
• NO TE: All analysis using the AFS Global Light Vehicle Production Forecast; updated on a monthly basis. Check out www.autoforecastsolutions.com for more information.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
1-7 days 8-14 days 15-21 days >21 days Pl an
t C ou
2,102
186
1,641
MEA
Forecasted Potential Impact Unrecoverable (Vol Displayed)
At Risk Recoverable
2021 Vehicle Volume Impact Risk Using announced plant impact volumes
AFS tracks the total impact of production volumes due to the semiconductor shortage
The total volume impact forecast combines:
Announced Plant Impact Analysis Additional potential volume impact
Source: AFS global forecast and services
Announced Plant Impact Analysis Volumes: 9.39M
Total 2021 Production Volume Impact Forecast:
10.61M Vehicle Plants Impacted:
Semiconductor Shortage Impact Analysis: Segments
6
Pass Car 29%
Pass Car 46%
Source: AFS global forecast and services
• The impact of vehicle segments on a global scale is predominantly split between Crossovers (CUV) and Passenger Cars. • With a majority of low selling passenger cars eliminated from manufacturer portfolios or offshored to other regions where they are are more accepted,
Crossovers in North America are taking the brunt of the impact. • The pickup segment group in North America represents approx. 517K vehicles impacted; with over 318K in the unrecoverable category. This is a bad sign. Some
VMs are using a “build-and-hold” approach by eliminating or postponing the installation of chip-dependent components from certain production vehicles. Expect to see this trend continue in this high profit segment group. This will allow the recovery in these segments to accelerate as chips become available.
October 2021(R2109) All rights reserved. @Copyright 2021
Semiconductor Shortage Impact Analysis: VM
7
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800
Th ou
sa nd
Announced Impacted NA: All Forecasted Impact
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950
1,000 1,050 1,100
Annnounced Impacted Global >100K Forecasted Impact
*volumes provides in the AFS Market Alerts Source: AutoForecast SolutionsUpdated: October 12, 2021
October 2021(R2109) All rights reserved. @Copyright 20218
October 2021(R2109) All rights reserved. @Copyright 2021
Global Light Vehicle Production Outlook (as of October 1, 2021 AFS Forecast release)
17.48 17.79 17.11 17.04 16.35 13.00 13.40 15.55 16.60 16.95 16.85 17.05 17.10 17.15
3.10 2.76 3.28 3.42 3.29 2.27 2.62 2.75 2.90 3.15 3.23 3.31 3.39 3.44
20.95 21.56 22.38 22.15 21.35
16.46 17.48 18.85 20.00 20.90 21.60 22.00 22.30 22.41
23.89 26.93 27.73 26.34 24.54
23.49 23.30 25.90
22.02 22.18 22.59 23.16
2.47 2.57 2.44 2.02
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
October 2021(R2109) All rights reserved. @Copyright 2021
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Volkswagen Toyota Motor
Maruti Suzuki SAIC-GM-Wuling
Tesla Tata
MILLION UNITS OF GLOBAL PRODUCTION RANKING BASED ON 2028 POSITION
2028 2019 2010
“1 Million Unit Club” Brand Owner Analysis (2028)
19 88% Brand Owners in 2028 to produce OVER 1 Million
units/year
Great Wall Automobile
BYD Chery
North America Growth Outlook and Growth
11.96 11.02 11.07 10.60
2.35
3.48
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
North America 31.89% -0.30% 3.52%
United States 37.34% -0.08% 4.05%
Canada 3.87% -4.15% 0.48%
Mexico 28.98% 0.94% 3.23%
13
Source: AutoForecast Solutions
D3 D3 D3 D3 D3 D3 D3 D3 D3 D3 D3 D3
EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU
AP AP AP AP AP AP AP AP AP AP AP AP
EV EV EV EV EV EV EV EV EV EV EV EV
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Calendar Year
North America Market Share
D3 EU AP EV
Powertrain Production Mix: North America
14
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
ICE Hybrid BEV
Source: AutoForecast Solutions
NOTE: Values in columns represent light vehicle production in millions
34%
14%
October 2021(R2109) All rights reserved. @Copyright 2021
Domestic Investment Opportunity: New Players Geely • Owner of Volvo & Lotus • 10% stake in Daimler and looking to invest in Aston Martin • Targeting North American consumers • The Lynk & Co and Polestar brands were developed with exports in mind • The new Volvo plant in the U.S. will assemble Polestar-branded vehicles;
opportunity to add Lynk & Co in future
SAIC • State-owned producer of MG brand • Heavy expansion throughout southeast Asia and targeting Western Europe –
with their sights on North America • Already produces/assembles MG/Roewe products in China, England, India,
and Thailand
EV Players • Amazon Zoox autonomous vehicles • Arrival EV vans and buses • Canoo van • Faraday EVs • Lordstown Motors trucks • Lucid • Rivian
15
• Appeared at the Detroit show over the last few years
• Original plans to enter the US market in 2020, starting with SUVs – tariff & COVID-related uncertainty forcing entry delay to no sooner than 2022
• Strengthening current China-based relationship with Stellantis to sell rebadged GAC models as Dodge vehicles in Mexico
Chery • Long believed to be looking at the North American market
• Chery has been quiet about its North American plans while it improves its quality
• The recent fallout with HAAH and their plans to market Chery products under the VANTAS & T-Go brands was cancelled; investigating new ways to enter the market
BYD • Partially financed by Warren Buffett
• Has a model certified for sale in the U.S., according to the EPA
• No plans to recruit dealers has been announced yet, but the U.S. market has been on its radar for years
• Currently produces electric buses in California
Source: AutoForecast Solutions
China Vehicle Production Outlook
2020
2010
2028
74
102
97
2020
2010
2028
Gas 79.60%
Diesel 18.97%
0.13%
North America Light Vehicle Production by Fuel Type
Gas 94.88%
Diesel 4.44%
North America BEV Market
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
BEV Production
Only 7 in 2019
31 Brands will be producing a total of over 2.4 million units Chevrolet, Nissan, and Tesla were the only major BEVs in 2019
Source: AutoForecast Solutions
Key Electrified Platform/Program Launches: North America • Rivian: Fall 2021
• Large van, pickup, and crossover
• Normal, Illinois
• Endurance large pickup
• EV vans and buses
22
• GM BV1: Sept 2021 • BrightDrop brand: GM EV commercial vehicle strategy
• Opening opportunities for contract manufacturing
• Start in Livonia (KUKA) - shift to Ingersoll, Canada (2022)
• GM BEV3: March 2022 • North America and China
• Cadillac Lyriq, Celestiq, Symboliq; Chevy Blazer, Buick Variants, Cruise Brand and others
• GM BUT/BET: Sept 2021 • GMC Hummer & Sierra, Chevy Tahoe & Silverado, Cadillac Escalade
• Ford TE1: July 2026 • F-Series Lightning (next generation), Transit, and other models
• Ford starting to electrifying F-Series Lightning on T3 (existing platform)
• Ford GE1: Sept 2020 (China in April 2021) • Mustang Mach-E and other small CUVs
• Ford GE2.1: June 2023 • GE1 replacement
• Addition small and mid-sized CUV EV variants
• STLA: Stellantis global electrification strategy: April 2023 • Four versions: Small, Medium, Large, and Frame (Truck)
• U.S. launch Oct 2023 (STLA Large @ Toluca and Belvidere)
Source: AutoForecast Solutions
• Faraday: May 2022
• Oak Park, Michigan
NOTE: 2021/2022 launches most likely delayed due to COVID and
semiconductor issues
EV Adoption Concerns
• Identifying the stakeholders
• Charging stations • Home and highways
• Financial incentives • Direct sale incentives
• Tax incentives
• HOV use
support EV build plans • The need for improved battery chemistry
• Penalties • Consumer
• Fuel tax • EV-consumer road use tax • Cost of personal time during charging
• Manufacturer: Carbon credit mandates
• Altered revenue models & the new consumer • New players • Understanding the target consumer • Brand loyalty erosion • Lower sales • Transactional vs. Subscription-based model
The Fine PrintThe Macro Issues
Source: AutoForecast Solutions
Electric Platform Production Volume - Global
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
24
78%
25
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40
20 10
20 11
20 12
20 13
20 14
20 15
20 16
20 17
20 18
20 19
20 20
20 21
20 22
20 23
20 24
20 25
20 26
20 27
20 28
M ill
io ns
Variance to Outlook
BEV Production Outlook
Announced Plans = 28 Million Optimist View = 38 Million
RED LINE = Battery Power Density/Price Parity Target
Variance to Optimist
Start-Up (AFS Forecast)25% of Mix
80%+
400%+
30%+
EVEN AN OPTIMISTIC VIEW REQUIRES OVER 60% OF VEHICLES TO HAVE AN ENGINE
Legacy (Plan Variance)
Start-Up (Plan Variance)
October 2021(R2109) All rights reserved. @Copyright 2021
Top 10 BEV Brand Owner Production Comparison Brand Owner 2019 Production Volume
Tesla 365K
Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi 190K
Volkswagen 1.77M
Tesla 1.26M
Stellantis 1.26M
Daimler 746K
Ford 716K
GM 546K
Source: AutoForecast Solutions
AFS Global Production Scenario: Long-term Outlook
27
• Aggressive targets are achievable
• Commercial Vehicle Startups • Delivery and fleet truck buyers are uniquely
positioned to benefit from low-cost operation
• Government • Strong investment pays off politically
Base Case: Potential Winners • Toyota, Mazda, Honda
• Focusing on hybrids and fuel cells delays large investments on BEVs until the market is proven, saving billions of dollars
Source: AutoForecast Solutions
Legacy VMs Start-Up
BEV Market Share AFS BEV Market Share
AFS Best Case Volume & Share Analysis Basis • 98M-103M annual light vehicle production • VM BEV targets used and are reached
October 2021(R2109) All rights reserved. @Copyright 2021
BEV Sales Outlook: United States
28
Analysis Assumptions: • Significant uptick starting in 2023
• Growth needs to accelerate to hit any VM- announced BEV targets in 2030+
• Nearly 100% of domestically-built BEVs are sold domestically
• Proposed U.S. incentives for domestically-produced BEVs will make imports more expensive
• The list of “known” players with a firm U.S. production footprint is volatile
• Imports largely limited to luxury/low-volume models • Existing imported BEVs will grow, potentially to the point
where they will may be built domestically
1.41%
2.66%
7.35%
12.55%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
October 2021(R2109) All rights reserved. @Copyright 2021
October 2021(R2109) All rights reserved. @Copyright 2021
Platform Architecture Platform Architecture Owner 2019 Vehicle Volume % of Total Production
MQB Volkswagen 7.0 million 7.8%
TNGA Toyota Motor 4.3 million 4.8%
CMF Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi 3.0 million 3.3%
KP2 Hyundai Motor 1.9 million 2.1%
CCA Honda Motor 1.7 million 1.9%
EMP2 Groupe PSA 1.6 million 1.8%
GSP Honda Motors 1.6 million 1.8%
N Hyundai Motors 1.5 million 1.7%
MLB Volkswagen 1.4 million 1.5%
35up BMW 1.4 million 1.5%
TOTAL 25.4 million 28.2%
30
Production in 36 Countries representing over 28% of global output
Source: AutoForecast Solutions
Platform Architecture
TNGA Toyota Motor 9.1 million 9.4% 1.3%
MQB Volkswagen 8.8 million 8.7% 0.0%
CMF Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi 5.9 million 6.1% 7.2%
Honda Architecture Honda Motors 5.0 million 5.1% 7.4%
VSS-F General Motors 3.0 million 3.1% 0.0%
N Hyundai Motors 2.7 million 2.8% 0.0%
EMP2 Groupe PSA 2.6 million 2.7% 8.4%
KP2 Hyundai Motors 2.6 million 2.6% 0.0%
CMP Groupe PSA 1.9 million 2.0% 0.3%
KP3 Hyundai Motors 1.6 million 1.7% 0.0%
TOTAL 42.8 million 44.2% 2.7%
Top 10 Global Vehicle Platform Architectures: 2028
31
Production in 43 Countries representing over 44% of global output
Source: AutoForecast Solutions
Most have electrified applications and/or BEV versions – NONE are dedicated BEV platform Total BEV production in 2028 is significantly lower than the combination of the top 2 platforms; AND across many manufacturers
*Vehicles with 100% BEV powertrain installation rate per Platform Architecture
October 2021(R2109) All rights reserved. @Copyright 2021
Final Thoughts
• Partnerships & new brands indicate contract manufacturing direction • GM and Honda
• GM BrightDrop
• Stellantis vs old-FCA
• Moved from last to leader in EV space with PSA partnership
The New Customer • EVs and SPAC money allows entry of new, unexperienced VMs; all looking for
help
• Time to be proactive in your planning – reactive approach can limit growth and competitiveness
• Compressed time to market when you can eliminate the ICE components is a game changer
32
The Changing Consumer • Brand loyalty erosion • Acceptance of a build-to-order strategy to minimize need for trim
level pre-builds • Subscription-based vs. transactional-based purchases • Socially motivated buying decisions
The China Effect • It’s not “if” but when they will have a North America manufacturing
presence
• Labor reduction
• Tooling reduction
• Volume reduction Source: AutoForecast Solutions
The Changing Landscape Evaluate current methodologies & rethink how to plan for the future
October 2021(R2109) All rights reserved. @Copyright 202133
Joseph McCabe President & CEO Office: 855.734.4590 ext. 1001 Mobile: 610.662.1441 [email protected]
Thank You,
AFS Forecast
AFS Forecast is a comprehensive automotive production forecast database and at the heart of the AFS value proposition. Detailed monthly vehicle data: Light Vehicle, Powertrain, Drivetrain, and Alternative Propulsion. Updated and provided in a user-friendly, web- based, solution; on a monthly basis. Historical production volumes and an eight-year planning window of forecast volumes are updated every month on a global basis – with proven automotive subject matter expertise and support. Supplemental weekly and monthly market reports analyze and pinpoint changes that help improve your company’s competitive position.
AFS Scenario is the only tool available in the industry designed to allow the user to create custom light vehicle and powertrain forecasts; on a regional basis for the global automotive market. Adjustments to annual, quarterly, and monthly production volumes can be done from the top down (total region) to the Vehicle/plant level – and all levels in-between (OEM, Platform, Program, etc.). Supported by a full suite of analysis reports to understand forecast changes over time.
AFS Portfolio is designed to allow an organization understand and track their competitive landscape. Customize around your products and services; track your product mix, volumes, competitive position, and identify your market share both from a volume and revenue perspective in the global automotive marketplace. Automatically updated every month to support a proactive approach in strengthening your core operations while identifying opportunities for growth.
AFS Planning is a fully integrated quote management and revenue planning solution specifically designed for an automotive supplier. Track and analyze your sales, customers, products, production capacity, and more at a detailed monthly part number level. Used also by the financial and investment community for due diligence and revenue performance analysis. Your company’s global footprint in a live database - integrated directly with the AFS Forecast database for accurate and timely planning, analysis, and opportunity identification. For further intelligence, add-on AFS Scenario.
Scenario
Planning
Forecast
Portfolio
Scenario
Planning
Forecast
Portfolio
Scenario
Planning
Forecast
Portfolio
Scenario
Planning
Forecast
Portfolio
October 2021(R2109) All rights reserved. @Copyright 2021
AFS Global Automotive Production Forecasting • The content in this document uses the global AFS production forecast released on July 31, 2021
• Also known as the R2107 release • The next data release will be available on Sept 1, 2021
• AFS tracks and forecasts the production of every light vehicle and their powertrain package detail produced worldwide today and through the next seven years (currently through 2028).
• Forecasts are updated monthly and released on a global basis. Data covered on a monthly basis includes, but is not limited to:
35
Vehicle Powertrain Common Definitions Engine* Transmission* Electric Motor*
Region PT Package Type Engine Manufacturer Transmission Manufacturer Electric Motor Manufacturer Country (Final Assembly) Component Type Engine Plant Region Transmission Plant Region Electric Motor Plant Region Plant/State Territory PT RPO Engine Plant Country Transmission Plant Country Electric Motor Plant Country Asssembly Plant PT Group Name Engine Plant State/Territory Transmission Plant State/Territory Electric Motor Plant State/Territory Plant Longitude PT Group Alt Name Engine Assembly Plant Tranmission Assembly Plant Electric Motor Assembly Plant Plant Latitude PT Group Brand Name Component Description Transmission Type Voltage Type Vehicle Type PT Package Name Displacement (liter, in3, cm3) Transmission Design Motor Type Segment PT Package Alt Group Name Cylinder Configuration Number of Forward Gears Max Voltage Internal Segment PT Family Name Number of Cylinders Interface Number of Phases Car/Truck PT Family Alt Name Primary Fuel Type Clutch Actuation Motor Position VM PT Group Sub Family Flex Fuel Case Material SOA (Start of Application) Vehicle Structure Type PT Family Design Corp Name Valvetrain Transaxle (Y/N) EOA (End of Application) Platform Architecture Aspiration Torque Converter (Y/N) Platform Architecture Designer Fuel Delivery SOA (Start of Application) Vehicle Platform Valves per Cylinder EOA (End of Application) Vehicle Program Valve Timing Brand Owner Head Material Brand Block Material Nameplate SOA (Start of Application) Program Start EOA (End of Application) Program End SOP Start of Production (VKEY) SORP Start of Regular Production (VKEY) EOP End of Production (VKEY)
Powertrain (PT) Package
Source: AutoForecast Solutions
Cylinder Configuration
Valvetrain
SORP Start of Regular Production (VKEY)
EOP End of Production (VKEY)
* Potential for more than one per PT package
NOTE: All fields have cooresponding Code and ID fields to support consistency, change analysis, and system integration
VEHICLE
Code
Car/Truck
Vehicle
Primary
Car
Primary
Various
EOP
Vehicle
Primary
Date
Vehicle
Vehicle segment that can used defined by the customer. AFS manages the process based in customer input.
Primary
Vehicle
Attribute
Primary
Primary
Primary
Various
Platform
Vehicle
Code
Program
Vehicle
Vehicle program code. Rolls up to te vehicle platform code.
Primary
Primary
Code
Primary
Region
Vehicle
Primary
Region
Vehicle
Primary
Vehicle
Primary
Vehicle
Primary
Vehicle
The unique identifier associated with a specific vehicle assembled at a specific plant with specific SOP/EOP. This is the descriptor of the VKEY.
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
VKEY
Vehicle
The unique ID associated with a specific vehicle assembled at a specific plant with specific SOP/EOP. This is the ID equal to the Vehicle Plant Descriptor.
Primary
VM
Vehicle
Field Type
# of Cyl
IC Engine
Field used to assist the user in determining the IC Engine application. Values are in integers.
Attribute
Transmission
# of forward gears. Field used to assist the user in determining the Transmission application. Values are in integers.
Attribute
# of Phases
Electric Motor
Field used to assist the user in determining the Electric Motor application.
Attribute
Aspiration
IC Engine
Field used to assist the user in determining the IC Engine application.
Attribute
Block Material
IC Engine
Field used to assist the user in determining the IC Engine application.
Attribute
Transmission
Field used to assist the user in determining the Transmission application.
Attribute
Component/RPO Name
Powertrain - All
The unique identifier of the component; include the package and vehicle/plant application information. This is the descriptor of the VCKEY.
Primary
Cyl Config
IC Engine
Field used to assist the user in determining the IC Engine application.
Attribute
Displacement CI
IC Engine
Field used to assist the user in determining the IC Engine application. Value is in Cubic Inches
Attribute
Displacement L
IC Engine
Field used to assist the user in determining the IC Engine application. Value is in Liters.
Attribute
EOA
Powertrain - All
End of Application (associated with the start date of a component on a vehicle/plant application)
Primary
Powertrain - All
Component grouping code (A component is either an IC engine, transmission, or electric motor)
Code
Fuel Delivery
IC Engine
Field used to assist the user in determining the IC Engine application.
Attribute
Flex Fuel
IC Engine
Field used to assist the user in determining the IC Engine application.
Attribute
Head Material
IC Engine
Field used to assist the user in determining the IC Engine application.
Attribute
Max Voltage
Electric Motor
Field used to assist the user in determining the Electric Motor application
Attribute
IC Engine
Field used to assist the user in determining the IC Engine application.
Attribute
Primary
Primary
Primary
Powertrain - All
Alternate component name. Created from a combination of the component’s specs, family relationship and fam specs.
Primary
Primary
Powertrain - All
Package type for component association (i.e., Hybrid, IC Only, Electric Only)
Primary
RPO Name
Powertrain - All
Regular Production Option. The name of the powertrain component used by the manufacturer.
Primary
SOA
Powertrain - All
Start of Application (associated with the start date of a component on a vehicle/plant application)
Primary
Transmission
Field used to assist the user in determining the Transmission application.
Attribute
IC Engine
Field used to assist the user in determining the IC Engine application.
Attribute
Valve Timing
IC Engine
Field used to assist the user in determining the IC Engine application.
Attribute
Valvetrain
IC Engine
Field used to assist the user in determining the IC Engine application.
Attribute
VCKEY
Powertrain - All
The unique ID associated with a specific component on a specific powertrain package applied to a specific vehicle at a specific plant. The component has a defined SOA/EOA. This is the ID equal to the Component/RPO Name.
Primary
Voltage Type
Electric Motor
Field used to assist the user in determining the Electric Motor application.
Attribute
Code
ENGINE
TorqueConverter
TorqueConverter
October 2021(R2109) All rights reserved. @Copyright 202136
AutoForecast Solutions (AFS) is the only fully integrated solutions provider of vehicle, powertrain, and drivetrain production forecasting,
business planning software, and advisory services to the global automotive industry.
AFS helps our customer… Understand the opportunities
Develop a value proposition to defend core operations Identify areas for growth.
Slide Number 1
Slide Number 2
Semiconductor impact Summary
Semiconductor Shortage Impact Analysis: Segments
Semiconductor Shortage Impact Analysis: VM
The global outlooklong term analysis
Global Light Vehicle Production Outlook (as of October 1, 2021 AFS Forecast release)
“1 Million Unit Club” Brand Owner Analysis (2028)
The north America outlooklong term analysis
North America Growth Outlook and Growth
North America Market Share by Brand Groups
Powertrain Production Mix: North America
Domestic Investment Opportunity: New Players
china
North America Light Vehicle Production by Fuel Type
North America BEV Market
EV Adoption Concerns
Global EV Market Sizing: AFS Base Case
Top 10 BEV Brand Owner Production Comparison
AFS Global Production Scenario: Long-term Outlook
BEV Sales Outlook: United States
The global imperative
Final Thoughts
Slide Number 36