Upload
frost-sullivan
View
863
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Frost & Sullivan Analyst Briefing on Australian Carbon Pricing Mechanism: Obligations and Opportunities
Citation preview
Australian Carbon Pricing Mechanism - Obligations and Opportunities
Sarah Wang, Senior Consultant
Energy & Power Systems
27 June 2012
2
Focus Points
Section
What is Carbon Tax?
Where Does the Revenue Go to?
Who Are Liable to Pay the Carbon Tax?
Impacts on The Economy
Are Industries Ready for the Carbon Tax?
Opportunities Driven by Consumers’ Desire to Mitigate the Cost on Carbon
Government Funding Program Related Investment in Clean Energy and Energy-efficiency Systems
Opportunities Arising for Low-emission Power-generating Systems
3
What is Carbon Tax?
2001 2009 Jan 2011
Mandatory Renewable Energy Target (MRET)
Renewable Energy Target (RET)
Large‑scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET)
Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES)
July 2012 July 2015
Carbon Tax Fixed Price (Per Tonne)
Plans ReducingGHG
Time Line 2007
Introducing National
Greenhouse and Energy Report
Scheme (NGER).
$A23.00 $A24.15 $A25.40
Carbon Pricing Mechanism
Carbon Trading in the World Market
Carbon Price Trading Range
+20.0% +25.0% +30.0%
$A 15.00/tonne $A 16.00/tonne $A 17.05/tonne
July 2015 July 2016 July 2017 July 2018
Floored Price
International Average Price
Ceilinged Price in Australian Carbon Market
Ceilinged Price in Australian Carbon Market
Time Line Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
4
Market Readiness
Degree of Carbon
Reliance
Investment in Research &
Development
Informed Market
Participants
Effective Policies and Legislation
Existence of Alternative
Energy Sources
Effective Carbon Tax System
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Better positioned
Worse positioned
Factors determining the success of carbon tax in reducing the carbon
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
5
Where Does the Revenue Go to?
Carbon Tax Impact: Carbon Tax Revenue Allocation, Australia, 2011
Industries and Businesses Sup-
port40.0%
Households' Subsidies50.0%
Others10.0% The funds are allocated to
qualified businesses and industries for technology upgrades and other support measures.
5.7 million households will get cash subsidies for increased electricity expenses.
Large Carbon Emitters
Note: Others include administrative cost and operational cost, etc.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
6
Who Are Liable to Pay the Carbon Tax?
Electricity Generation14%
Coal and Other Min-ing
23%
Natural Gas Sup-pliers9%
Industrial Processes14%
Waste Disposal Sec-tor
30%
Other Fossil Fuel-in-tensive Sector
11%
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
7
Agricu
lture
, fore
stry a
nd fis
hing
Min
ing
Man
ufac
turin
g
Constr
uctio
n
Servic
es0.0
10.020.030.040.050.060.070.0
2010
2020 without carbon pricing
2020 with carbon pricing
Per
cen
t
Source: The Treasury, Australian Federal Government
Impacts on The Economy
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Series10.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
Job
s (M
illi
on
)
Source: The Treasury, Australian Federal Government
2040 2050
Without carbon pricingWith carbon pricing
2010 2020 2030
Carbon Tax Impact: Industry Structure
With/without Carbon Price, Australia, 2011 Carbon Tax Impact: Employment
With/without Carbon Price, Australia, 2011
8
Are Industries Ready for the Carbon Tax?
Liable Entities* Non-liable Entities
Awareness of Electricity Price Increase
Awareness of Electricity Price Increase
Participating in EEOParticipating in EEO
Is there a Strategy for Tackling Cost Increase
Challenges
Is there a Strategy for Tackling Cost Increase
Challenges
Low High
* The list of liable companies has not been published until the end of April 2012. The term ‘liable entities’ used here refers to companies that are certain to have a CO2-e emissions that exceed 25,000 tonnes, such as electricity generation companies, smeltering companies, industrial and commercial fleets.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
9
Opportunities Driven by Consumers’ Desire to Mitigate the Cost on Carbon
Reduced Energy
Bills
Reduced Energy
Bills
Distributed Power Generation
• Combined heat and power generation
• Combined cooling, heat, and power generation
• Alternative power generation
Distributed Power Generation
• Combined heat and power generation
• Combined cooling, heat, and power generation
• Alternative power generation
• Process improvement
• Process control
• Efficiency improvement
• Process improvement
• Process control
• Efficiency improvement
Improved competitivenessImproved financial return
Improved competitivenessImproved financial return
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
10
Government Funding Program Related Investment in Clean Energy and Energy-efficiency Systems
2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
Gov-ern-ment Fund-ing Pro-gram Related In-vest-ment in Clean Energy and Energy Effi-ciency Sys-tems
4300 5450 6120 7357
Growth Rate
NaN 0.267441860465116
0.122935779816514
0.202124183006536
500
2,500
4,500
6,500
3%
13%
23%
Avail
ab
le G
overn
men
t F
un
ds (
$A
Mil
lio
n)
Gro
wth
Rate
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Government Funding Program Related Investment in Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Systems : Available Funds, Australia, 2012 – 2016
11
Who will benefit from the Opportunities? - Energy-saving Solution Providers
Where Are The Opportunities?
Alumina Steel Mining Chemicals
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
EQUIPMENTManufacturers,
Installers, Distributors
SOFTWAREVendors, Installers and
System Integrators, Resellers
SERVICEEnergy service companies
(ESCOs), Consultants, Architect & Engineering Design/Build Firms, Contractors, Project Financiers, Maintenance
Service Providers
12
Customer Opportunity/Fit Matrix
EXISTING Product / Service NEW Product / Service
Efficiency Improvements
• Opportunity to leverage existing products (equipment and software) for energy/carbon gains by layering information solutions over them to ensure improved visibility, control and agility for the customer.
Value-Adding Strategy • Opportunity to brand and promote energy
management services (that are typically embedded in total service contracts) as specialist solutions.
• Opportunity to position improved energy-efficiency products at a premium.
• Large untapped opportunity for carbon/energy consulting and training.
Diversification
• Opportunity to widen product portfolio with niche or specialist solutions focused on energy/carbon metrics.
• Opportunity to shift away from stand-alone solutions to integrated offerings capable of delivering system-wide energy/carbon benefits.
Customer/Geographic Expansion
• Allocate more marketing and delivery resources to geographical clusters of large emitters (e.g. in the major mining states (Western Australia and Queensland)).
• Strategically segment customer groups by energy consumption intensity and focus more on the upper 50% energy consumers.
EX
IST
ING
Mar
ket
NE
W M
ark
et
13
Closure of emission intensive coal fired power generation
capacity
Cash and carbon permits (administrative allocation)
Purpose of Funds Eligibility
Generators with capacity > 1.2 tCO2-
e/MWh
Generators with capacity > 1.0 tCO2-
e/MWh
Energy Efficiency Opportunities
En
erg
y S
ecu
rity
F
un
ds
En
erg
y E
ffic
ien
t O
pp
ort
un
ity
Generators with capacity > 0.5 tCO2-
e/MWh
Available Government fiscal support for Power Generation Sector
• It is estimated that about 2,000 MW of highly emission intensive coal fired power generation capacity is going to be closed by 2020. The funds are used to provide transitional subsidies into gas and other low emission intensive power generation. .
Government Funding - 1
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
14
Purpose of Funds Eligibility
Coal Mining Abatement Technology Support Package
($A 70 Million)
Coal Sector Jobs Package ($A 1.26 Billion)
With fugitive emission intensity of > 0.1 tCO2-e /tonne
in 2008 - 09
Small and medium coal sector participants
• The total subsidies is estimated to cover about over 80 percent of the emissions covering about 25 mines with 18 in New South Wales and 7 in Queensland.
• The Australian cola mining sector is largely affected by the carbon tax for its ‘fugitive emission’ from coal seam gases (CSG), mainly methane. The coal sector has been denied the access to the EITES program, therefore Australian coal mines will not receive free carbon permits.
Available Government fiscal support for Coal Mining Sector
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Government Funding - 2
15
Purpose of Funds Eligibility
Jobs and competitiveness program
Steel transformation plan Steel manufacturing industry
steel manufacturing, aluminium smelting, and petroleum refining
Annual energy consumption > 0.5 PJ, subject to assessment
process
Targeting energy intensive industrial processing sectors. The funding is expected to encourage energy efficiency in the sectors
Available to broader large energy consumers across all industry sectors
Clean Technology Investment Program
Available Government fiscal support for Manufacturing Sector
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Government Funding - 3
16
Next Steps
Develop Your Visionary and Innovative SkillsGrowth Partnership Service Share your growth thought leadership and ideas or
join our GIL Global Community
Join our GIL Community Newsletter Keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities
17
Your Feedback is Important to Us
Growth Forecasts?
Competitive Structure?
Emerging Trends?
Strategic Recommendations?
Other?
Please inform us by “Rating” this presentation.
What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan?
18
http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan
Follow Frost & Sullivan on Facebook, LinkedIn, SlideShare, and Twitter
http://www.facebook.com/FrostandSullivan
http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506
http://www.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan
19
Today’s Presenter
• With over 7 years of experience in industry research and business consulting, Sarah has undertaken research and consulting projects in renewable energy, environment, power generation and transmission, building technologies, and chemicals and materials.
• She is now a Senior Consultant at Industrial Practice, Australia and New Zealand; focuses on managing and conducting industry trends research and analysis, to generate customised reports, briefings, and other content for the subscription services.
Sarah Wang, Senior Consultant
Frost & SullivanAustralia and New ZealandSydney
For any other enquiries, email us: [email protected]
20
For Additional Information
Donna JeremiahCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+61 (0) 8247 8927 [email protected]
Carrie LowCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+603 6204 [email protected]
Jessie LohCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+65 6890 [email protected]