Webinar 2 on resilience: Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis II – RIMA II, what’s new?

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2

Listof

webinars

INFORMEDINFORMATION FOR NUTRITION FOOD SECURITY AND

RESILIENCE FOR DECISION MAKING

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#ks4resilience

#UNFAO

Resilience IndexMeasurement and Analysis II

RIMA-II: what’s new?

Marco d’ErricoResilience Analysis and Policies team

Agricultural Development Economics Division Food and Agriculture Organization of the United

Nations FAO-RIMA@fao.org

Outli

ne

What you can get from RIMA

Resilience and RIMA-II

RIMA-II: the descriptive measure

RIMA-II: the causal measure

Stepping up policy influence

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What you can get from RIMA

Wha

t que

stio

ns a

nswe

r?

Who is most in need?

Where should investment focus in terms of geographical location?

Which dimensions of resilience need to be supported?

To what extent have interventions increased target populations’ resilience? Was our money well-spent?

What are the main determinants of food security recover?

Wha

t you

can

get

from

RIM

A

Was our money well-spent?

Wha

t you

can

get

from

RIM

A

Was our money well-spent?

IFA

APS

AC

A

SSN

S

-2.5

-1.5

-0.5

0.5

1.5

Baseline Evaluation

Urban /Peri Urban

IFA

APS

AC

A

SSN

S

-2.5

-1.5

-0.5

0.5

1.5

Baseline Evaluation

Herders

IFA

APS

AC

A

SSN

S

-2.5

-1.5

-0.5

0.5

1.5

Baseline Evaluation

Farmers

Before and After Prj Implementation - WBGS

Wha

t you

can

get

from

RIM

A

Resilience maps

Wha

t you

can

get

from

RIM

A

An infographic visually explains the process step by step

and the results of the analysis.

Evidence-based policy choice

A brief addressed to government policy-makers summarizes the results of the resilience analysis and formulates policy recommendations.

RIM

A an

alys

is in

the

world

RIMA – Finalized AnalysisSenegal, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Somalia, West Bank and Gaza Strip, Nigeria, Uganda, Tanzania and Malawi RIMA – Ongoing AnalysisSenegal, Mauritania, Chad, Ethiopia, Lesotho, West Bank and Gaza Strip

Mauritania

Chad

Ethiopia

Uganda

Tanzania

Malawi

Lesotho

Senegal

MaliNiger

Burkina Faso

Sudan

South Sudan

Kenya

Somali

a

Nigeria

West Bank & Gaza Strip

Resilience and RIMA-II

Photo: FAO

Resil

ienc

e an

d RI

MA-

II

• a context-specific concept with respect to: - specific population of interest- specific outcome of interest- specific shocks

• Linked to an outcome- Resilience is on the right hand of the equation- The Y is in the LHS (food security; consumption)

• Time-dependentImpact on resilience can be measured as change over time; need baseline/end-line data. It is all about time.

How can resilience be measured? quantitative vs qualitative big surveys vs lighter surveys ad hoc vs pre-existing data

Challenges in Resilience Measurement

Resil

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d RI

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RIMA (Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis) is an innovative quantitative approach that  estimates resilience to food insecurity andgenerates the evidence for more effectively assisting vulnerable populations.

RIMA allows explaining why and how some households cope with shocks and stressor better than others do and provides rigorous framework for humanitarian and long-term development initiatives to build food secure and resilient livelihoods.

Resil

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e an

d RI

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RIMA suits several definitions of resilience:

• The ability to prevent disasters and crises as well as to anticipate, absorb, accommodate or recover from them in a timely, efficient and sustainable manner (FAO, 2013)

• The capacity of a household to bounce back to a previous level of well-being (for instance food security) after a shock (Alinovi, Mane & Romano, 2009)

• The capacity that ensures adverse stressors and shocks do not have long-lasting adverse development consequences (Resilience Measurement Technical Working Group, 2014)

RIMA is focused on households

Resil

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• It is the unit within which the most important decisions to manage uncertain events are made

• It is the unit that benefits the positive effects of policies and suffers for negative effects of shocks

Conc

eptu

al fr

amew

ork

Resil

ienc

e an

d RI

MA-

IIRIMA-II provides a comprehensive estimation of resilience and clear policy indications.

It estimates household resilience to food insecurity with a comprehensive pack which includes descriptive and causal measure as well as long and short term measurement approaches

Shocks are considered exogenous and included into a regression model for estimating their impact on food security and on resilience

Food security variables are considered exogenous indicators of resilience capacity

Shoc

ks

RIMA-II takes into account several types of shocks that can affect households.

Shocks affecting one household such as livestock death, job loss and illness of a household member. These shocks are all directly reported by households in surveys (idiosyncratic shocks)Shocks affecting an entire community (covariate shocks) which in turn are divided into:

Climate shocks, such as droughts, floods, rainfalls and other natural hazards, registered through GIS;

Conflict-related shocks, such as war, murders and social disorders

Data

set

Quantitative data Existing data (LSMS, MICS, other HH budget survey)

• LSMS-ISA (Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, Uganda, Tanzania)

• Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey 2005

Ad hoc data (LSMS-type, primary data collection through surveys) • Baseline/final survey for impact

evaluation (South Sudan, Sudan, Somalia)

• Sampling; design; training; data collection, entry, cleaning & analysis

Validated and integrated with qualitative data• Focus group, rapid

assessment, other tools

Qualitative data

Data

set

Mixed methods approach

RIMA-II: the descriptive measure

Photo: FAO

Descriptive measure

It provides information on household resilience capacity.

RIMA-II employs latent variable models to estimate the Resilience Capacity Index (RCI) and the Resilience Structure Matrix (RSM).

It is a valuable policy analysis tool to inform funding and policy decisions, as it allow to target and rank households from most to less resilient.

Desc

riptiv

e m

easu

re

Access to basic services

(ABS)

Assets (AST)

Adaptive Capacity

(AC)

Social Safety Nets

(SSN)

Household resilience

Resilience pillars

Desc

riptiv

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easu

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Resilience pillars Definition

Adaptive Capacity

Adaptive Capacity is the ability of a household to adapt to a new situation and develop new strategies of livelihood

Social Safety Nets

The Social Safety Nets pillar measures the ability of households to access timely and reliable assistance provided by international agencies, charities, and NGOs, as well as help from relatives and friends.

Assets

Assets comprise both productive and non-productive assets. Examples of indicators include land, livestock and durables. Other tangible assets such as house, vehicle, and household amenities reflect living standards and wealth of a household.

Access to Basic Services

Access to Basic Services shows the ability of a household to meet basic needs, and access and effective use of basic services; e.g., access to schools, health facilities; infrastructures and markets.

Desc

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1) Factor analysis: from observed variables to pillars

2) Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes: from pillars to RCI

Two-step procedure for RCI estimation:

RIMA-II: the causal measure

Photo: European Commission DG ECHO / Flircr

Causal measure

RIMA-II estimates the main determinants of food recovery and it moves the resilience analysis in the long term perspective.

The causal measure can be adopted as a predictor tool for interventions that build and strengthen resilience to food insecurity.

It provides new depth and breadth to resilience analysis and permits decision makers and other stakeholders to better understand the dynamics of positive trends in resilience and thus develop strategies that will yield positive results.

Caus

al m

easu

reFood security trajectory

RIM

A-II

Estimation of RCI + RSM + food security recovery determinants:

Stepping up policy influence

Photo: FAO

Step

ping

up

polic

y in

fluen

ce

• Resilience markerpilot in West Bank and Gaza Strip

• Integration/harmonization with other tools

e.g. USAID-TANGO, UNICEF, WFP, IFAD

• Global resilience indexe.g. future development for global

comparison

• C-RIMApilot in Somalia

• Broadening RIMA analytical capacitiese.g. gender (FAO); shocks (IFPRI; Cornell and TUFTS University)

Step

ping

up

polic

y in

fluen

ce

• Strict collaboration with: 1) Regional initiatives (CILSS/IGAD)2) National Bureau of Statistics and other

significative ministries3) FAO country regional and sub-regional

offices4) Universities for enhancing local capacity

building • Re-thinking resilience analyses

and communications tools under a policy-oriented perspective

THANK YOU! Contact me…

… and sign up to our newsletter!

Marco.Derrico@fao.org

FAO-RIMA@fao.org www.fao.org/resilience/background/tools/rima

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