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LocalExperienced Independent
Spring Housing Briefing
Local
Apex Home Loans, Inc © 20103204 Tower Oaks Boulevard #400 Rockville, MD 20852 || www.apexhomeloans.com
• Largest Independent Mortgage Banking Firm Headquartered in Montgomery County • Licensed in DC, MD, VA• Decisions Made Locally• In house processing, underwriting, appraisal management, doc draw, and funding
Apex Home Loans, Inc © 20103204 Tower Oaks Boulevard #400 Rockville, MD 20852 || www.apexhomeloans.com
Experienced• Founded in 1998• Staff to originator ratio of 1:1• Loan originators all have 10+ years experience• Owners all have 15+ years experience• Consistently called on by local & national media
Independent
Apex Home Loans, Inc © 20103204 Tower Oaks Boulevard #400 Rockville, MD 20852 || www.apexhomeloans.com
• More control than a mortgage broker or large retail bank• Owners all on site• Full Product Menu • Direct Lender
Keynote Presentationby John McClain,
George Mason Center for Regional Analysis
Apex Home Loans
March 3, 2011
The Washington AreaEconomic Performance and Outlook
John McClain, AICP, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Center for Regional Analysis
School of Public Policy, George Mason University
Quarters After Trough
% C
hang
e in
GD
P
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDPPast Five Recessions
Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,
(2009 Recession has 6th
Q added from GI Forecast)
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2013
%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Global Insight
Forecast > > > > > > >
ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – USMonth over-the-YearTHOUSANDS
Jan = + 550
Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA
Initial Unemployment Claims000s (4-week moving average)
402
Feb-11
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
9.0
%
GI FCST11 – 9.012 – 8.513 – 7.814 – 7.115 – 6.6
U.S. Housing TrendsNew & Existing Home Sales
Existing(left scale)
New
(Right Scale)
(000s) (000s)
L.I.
C.I.
U.S. Coincident and Leading IndicesNov 2006 – Jan 2011
RECESSION > > >
Interest Rates2001 - 2015
Forecast > > > > > >%
Oil Prices$ per barrel$/barrel
Source: Global Insight
Forecast > > > > > > > >
Consumer Confidence
100
Present Situation
Expectations
Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Jan-11
The Washington Economy
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change from Recession Start (12/07)
(000s)Washington -22,000
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Last 10 Years
(000s)Washington 280,000
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Washington MSA Leading Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
12-MonthMoving Average
Washington MSA Coincident Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
12-MonthMoving Average
000s
Annual Job Change – MOTYCWashington MSA
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2008 2009 2010
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Dec 09 – Dec 10
(000s)
Washington + 57,500
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorDec 2009 – Dec 2010
Washington MSA(000s) Total 57,500
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeDistrict of Columbia
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2008 2009 2010
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2008 2009 2010
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeSuburban Maryland
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2008 2009 2010
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
9.2 – DC9.1 – U.S.
6.0 – SMD5.7 – MSA4.7 - NVA
Unemployment Rate
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Rate
November 2010%
US 9.1
Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
5.7
Wages & SalariesProcurement
Federal Spending By Type1984 - 2009
$ Billions
DOD Federal Procurement in MSAProjection of Sec. Gates Proposed Cuts
$ Billions
Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Reports
- $9.5 Billion- 66,000 Jobs
Federal EmploymentWashington Metro Area
000s Eisenhower Kennedy – Johnson
Nixon - Ford
Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush 2
- 22
+ 80
+ 36+ 18 - 6 + 4
- 42 + 23
Obama
+28
Housing Market Trends
House Price Index ChangeQ3 2000 – Q3 2010%
Source: FHFA
House Price ChangeQ4 2009 – Q4 2010%
Source: NAR Single Family
Existing Home SalesWashington MSA
Through January 2011
12-Month Moving Average
Median House Sales PriceWashington MSA
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5.0%/Year
Average Sales Price Annual Percent Change
Washington MSAAll Existing Homes%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes
Month-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2010, MSA
Jan-May, 2006 >100 %
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
Jan = -17.3%
Total Active Listings Per SaleJanuary Each Year – Metro Area
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSA
All Housing Types%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2008 2009 2010
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern Virginia
All Housing Types%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2008 2009 2010
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeSuburban Maryland
All Housing Types%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2008 2009 2010
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeDistrict of ColumbiaAll Housing Types
%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2008 2009 2010
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeMetro Area – Single Family Detached
%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2008 2009 2010 2011
Nov %: DC = -7, SM = +5, NV = +1
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeMetro Area – Single Family Attached
%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2008 2009 2010 2011
Nov %: DC = +16, SM = -.2, NV = +2
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeMetro Area – Condos
%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2008 2009 2010 2011
Nov %: DC = -9, SM = -21, NV = -5
Washington MSABuilding Permits
2000 – 2010, 3-Month Mvg Avg
Economic Forecast
Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
D.C.D.C. 10.1 10.1 -0.6-0.6 10.510.5 10.510.5 9.79.7 9.39.3 9.69.6 9.49.4
Sub. MDSub. MD -4.3-4.3 -26.8-26.8 1.51.5 15.515.5 13.613.6 14.914.9 15.615.6 14.614.6
No. VANo. VA 3.6 -24.5 9.5 22.1 20.7 22.3 22.6 20.3
REGION 9.59.5 -51.9-51.9 21.521.5 48.148.1 44.044.0 46.546.5 47.847.8 44.244.2
Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS
Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions
(Annual % Change)%
DCSMMSANV
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015
Washington
U.S.
• Nationally most economic measures are positive and gaining momentum, jobs and housing lag
• Local Economy– Good job growth, declining unemployment, and job
growth in high-wage sectors• Local Housing Market
– Prices are stable, rising– Inventories moderate– Given that and with mortgage rates low, sales – New housing is yet to recover…later this year & 2012
SUMMARY
policy-cra.gmu.org
LocalExperienced Independent
Spring Housing Briefing
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