Southwest Florida Housing Market Briefing Women’s Council ...files.ctctcdn.com/bfa81023201/c18919a6-9769-490a-bf4c-dd8164a3… · Southwest Florida Housing Market Briefing . Women’s

Southwest Florida Housing Market Briefing Women’s Council of Realtors

March 14, 2014

David Cobb Regional Director South Florida 239-220-7023 [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014

This measurement of the market covers 4.5 million lots in 48,000 subdivisions In 41 markets in 19 states - About 65%-70% of all construction in MSAs

National Economic Overview A 30,000-Foot View


4th Quarter GDP Growth – Robust!

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%GDP Quarterly Growth Rate

4.1%

3.5% FED TARGET

Source: U. S. Dept. of Commerce

4Q2013: 3.2%


Fed GDP Projection for 2014

Source: Federal Reserve


Job Growth is Fair to Middling …

(7,000,000)

(6,000,000)

(5,000,000)

(4,000,000)

(3,000,000)

(2,000,000)

(1,000,000)

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000Annual Job Growth, 2005- 2013

Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

+2,193,000 YOY

Almost all jobs lost during recession have been recovered, but…

December: 84,000 January: 129,000 February: 175,000


Job Growth is Concentrated in (low wage) Services Sector

Government

Natural Resources & Mining

Information

Other Services

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

Construction

Leisure & Hospitality

Education & Health Services

Transportation, Trade & Utilities

Prof & Business Services

(100,000) - 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000

Employment Growth by Industry, 4Q 2013



Unemployment Rate Trend…a slow decline

3.0%

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

17.0%

19.0%Unemployment Rate Trend


6.7%

13.3%

Official Unemployment Rate

Expanded Unemployment Rate

(U-6)

U-6: “Marginally attached”, discouraged and part-time seeking full-time workers

February 2014: 6.7%

February 2014: 12.6%


Consumer Confidence Index

Gov’t shutdown effect

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13

Consumer Confidence Index, Last 12 Months

Source: Conference Board

February: 78.1


Consumer Confidence Index – Home Buying Plans (New, Existing and Undecided)

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Consumer Confidence Index - Undecided Home Buying PlansPlan to Buy a Home Plan to Buy Existing Home Plan to Buy a New Home Uncertain Whether New or Existing

%

Source: Conference Board

2.6 Million Undecided Households

8.3M Total

3.8M Resale

1.8M New


Household Formation is Stalling December 2013: -203,000

The U. S. Housing Market


NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Annual Starts & Closings – 6 Year History


NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Annual Starts & Annual Closings by State


NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Annual Starts & Annual Closings by Price Range


NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Vacant Developed Lot Inventory & Months of Supply – 6 Year History


NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Quarterly Lot Delivery & Starts


NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Finished Vacant Inventory & Months of Supply – 6 Year History


Finished Months of Supply – South Dade

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

2002 2003 2004 2005

4.5!

1,312 units of finished, vacant inventory


St.Lucie County

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2Q00

4Q00

2Q01

4Q01

2Q02

4Q02

2Q03

4Q03

2Q04

4Q04

2Q05

4Q05

2Q06

Fin/

Vac

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

Mon

ths

Finished Vacant Months of Supply

Normal Level



South Florida Housing Trends


NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET 2013 Annual Starts and Closings by Market

3,194 2,864


South Florida Starts

Q4: 2,149 Q3: 2,693 2013: 10,086 2012: 7,512

PREVIOUS YEAR OVER QUARTER YEAR

-20.1% +34.2%


Starts: 2013 versus 2012 Indian River 427 vs 243 +76% St. Lucie 351 vs 147 +139%

Martin 375 vs 264 +42%

Palm Beach 2053 vs 1818 +13%

Dade 2545 vs 1633 +56%

Collier 1482 vs 1082 +37%

Lee 1712 vs 1289 +33%

Broward 1141 vs 1036 +10%


Collier County


Collier Unemployment Rate


Naples/Marco Island Job Growth by Industry


Collier Scorecard 2013 2012 Trend Finished, Vacant MOS: 1.1 1.6 Total Housing MOS: 9.0 8.9 VDL Inventory: 4,357 4,828 Future Lots: 23,080 21,421


Collier Top Communities


Collier Top Communities 2013 Starts 1. Riverstone – GL 195 2. Fiddler’s Creek – Len, Stock, DRH 110 3. Ave Maria - DW, Len, Pulte, CC Devco 100 4. Lely Resort – Stock, Cordoba 93 5. The Quarry – Pulte 88 6. Verona Walk – DiVosta 84 7. Quail West – multiple bldrs 81 8. Treviso Bay – Lennar, TM 73 9. Reflection Lakes – Lennar 72 10.Summit Place TH – DRH 70


Collier Price Distribution


Collier VDL Inventory

Ave Maria 359

Quail West 361

Arrowhead Reserve 349

Starts: 1482 Housing Inventory: 882 10 MOS VDL Inventory: 4355 38 MOS


Collier Future Lot Inventory

Ave Maria 9284

Islands of Collier 1486

Esplanade 1760

Total Future Lot Inventory: 23080 Vacant Land: 16587


Lee County


Lee Unemployment Rate


Ft. Myers/Cape Coral Job Growth by Industry


Lee Scorecard 2013 2012 Trend Finished, Vacant MOS: 1.1 1.2 Total Housing MOS: 5.3 6.2 VDL Inventory: 6,794 7,302 Future Lots: 48,519 49,590


Lee Top Communities


Lee Top Communities 2013 Starts 1. Pelican Preserve – WCI 138 2. Village Walk – DiVosta 135 3. Preserve at Corkscrew – Len, Pulte 115 4. Reflection Isles – Lennar 104 5. Bonita Isles – Minto 90 6. The Forum – Lennar 74 7. Moody River – DRH 72 8. Sandoval – TM 70 9. Bella Terra – Lennar 68 10.Verandah – Kolter, Neal, DRH, custom 66


Lee Price Distribution


Lee VDL Inventory

River Hall 449

Entrada 396

The Grove 539

Starts: 1712 Housing Inventory: 696 7 MOS VDL Inventory: 6794 58 MOS


Lee Future Lots

Babcock Ranch 19500

Total Future Lot Inventory: 48519 Vacant Land: 40627

Bonita Nat’l 1902

Entrada 1461

Magnolia Landing 1650

Savannah Lakes 1599

Corkscrew Shores 660


Final Thoughts & Forecast

•2014 Housing Starts up 10-20% (nearly 25% for single-family)

•Sales price appreciation will not match 2013’s pace •Mortgage Rates edge upward, but stay below 6%

•Job Growth will fuel housing recovery, or not

•Household Formation Rate is another key to demand (+1M needed)

What are you working on?


Types of Market Studies

• Site-Specific Demand/Absorption Studies

• Strategic Studies (nationwide)

• Product Studies

• Portfolio Analyses

• TMA Analyses

• Market and Submarket Forecasts

Thank you!

David Cobb Regional Director South Florida (239) 220-7023 [email protected]

Documents

Southwest Florida Housing Market Briefing Women’s Council ...files.ctctcdn.com/bfa81023201/c18919a6-9769-490a-bf4c-dd8164a3… · Southwest Florida Housing Market Briefing . Women’s