TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE (TBL) APPLIED TO...

TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE (TBL) APPLIED TO RECYCLING

Going Beyond Hand-Waving

Western Regional Symposium SWANA,

Fish Camp, CA

April 9, 2019

Lisa A. Skumatz, Ph.D., SERA Skumatz Economic Research

Associates Inc. 303/494-1178 ©2017 SERA all rights reserved; may be used with permission of author

SERA

OVERVIEW OF PRESENTATION

What is TBL

How – Economics

How - Emissions,

How - Social

Why / Results / Info for Decisions

Perspective – Quantitative, Best Practices, Implementable Research to advise communities

SERA

WHAT IS TBL? BETTER INFORMING DECISIONS

Econ

Enviro

Social – measured & monet-

ized!!

Real TBL

Econ

Enviro

Social (stories)

Most TBL

Net tip fees

All costs (perspec-

tives)

Net B/C

Direct B&C

Basic B/C

Information for decision, can’t “make” the decision

Good

Better

Best

SERA

ASSESSING TBL

TBL Element Measurement Method Econ Enviro Social

Direct B&C Model tons, city costs √ Enhanced B&C • Add Generator cost • Net Tip Fees

Model tons Model Generator cost Net tip fees

√

Economic Activity • Output, Jobs & Taxes

Model programs & tons Input/Output Model

√ √

VMT Effects • Street Damage • Emissions

Routing changes from “bundles”, coll’n modeling, emissions from fuel / MPG

√ √ √

Emissions Effects • Net Diversion &

Red’n; (&kWh) • Health Damage • Social Effects

Model tons, Emission Model Social Cost of Carbon Value(s) - literature Breakeven analysis

√ √

Social Effects • Case studies • Monetization of all

effects incl. indirect

Assess local impacts, sub-areas, subgroups Specialized surveys / measure for all affected

√

TOTAL TBL – Triple Bottom Line

Net impacts, context Breakeven analysis

√

√

√

SERA

ASSESSING TBL

TBL Element Measurement Method Econ Enviro Social

Direct B&C Model tons, city costs √ Enhanced B&C • Add Generator cost • Net Tip Fees

Model tons Model Generator cost Net tip fees

√

Economic Activity • Output, Jobs & Taxes

Model programs & tons Input/Output Model

√ √

VMT Effects • Street Damage • Emissions

Routing changes from “bundles”, coll’n modeling, emissions from fuel / MPG

√ √ √

Emissions Effects • Net Diversion &

Red’n; (&kWh) • Health Damage • Social Effects

Model tons, Emission Model Social Cost of Carbon Value(s) - literature Breakeven analysis

√ √

Social Effects • Case studies • Monetization of all

effects incl. indirect

Assess local impacts, sub-areas, subgroups Specialized surveys / measure for all affected

√

TOTAL TBL – Triple Bottom Line

Net impacts, context Breakeven analysis

√

√

√

SERA

ASSESSING TBL

TBL Element Measurement Method Econ Enviro Social

Direct B&C Model tons, city costs √ Enhanced B&C • Add Generator cost • Net Tip Fees

Model tons Model Generator cost Net tip fees

√

Economic Activity • Output, Jobs & Taxes

Model programs & tons Input/Output Model

√ √

VMT Effects • Street Damage • Emissions

Routing changes from “bundles”, coll’n modeling, emissions from fuel / MPG

√ √ √

Emissions Effects • Net Diversion &

Red’n; (&kWh) • Health Damage • Social Effects

Model tons, Emission Model Social Cost of Carbon Value(s) - literature Breakeven analysis

√ √

Social Effects • Case studies • Monetization of all

effects incl. indirect

Assess local impacts, sub-areas, subgroups Specialized surveys / measure for all affected

√

TOTAL TBL – Triple Bottom Line

Net impacts, context Breakeven analysis

√

√

√

SERA

MODELING ECONOMIC EFFECTS

Multiple inputs

Collection / transfer

Tonnage changes

Economic impacts

LOCAL-specific/industry

Local or national effects

Model

Direct, indirect, induced economic effects

Output, jobs / labor income, value added, tax effects

SERA

ESTIMATING ECON EFFECTS

10,000 from landfilling to…

Labor Income/yr (in thous)

Total Value Added/yr (in thous)

Output/yr (in thous)

County level effects – Residential

Recycling $290 $343 $478

Yard waste $175 $238 $31

Food scraps $176 $239 $30

State level effects - Residential

Recycling $310 $375 $572

Yard waste $186 $253 $75

Food scraps $188 $254 $75

County level effects – Commercial

Recycling $432 $467 $463

Yard waste $170 $225 $26

Food scraps $170 $225 $25

State level effects – Commercial

Recycling $448 $495 $556

Yard waste $177 $240 $71

Food scraps $177 $240 $70

SERA

ASSESSING TBL

TBL Element Measurement Method Econ Enviro Social

Direct B&C Model tons, city costs √ Enhanced B&C • Add Generator cost • Net Tip Fees

Model tons Model Generator cost Net tip fees

√

Economic Activity • Output, Jobs & Taxes

Model programs & tons Input/Output Model

√ √

VMT Effects • Street Damage • Emissions

Routing changes from “bundles”, coll’n modeling, emissions from fuel / MPG

√ √ √

Emissions Effects • Net Diversion &

Red’n; (&kWh) • Health Damage • Social Effects

Model tons, Emission Model Social Cost of Carbon Value(s) - literature Breakeven analysis

√ √

Social Effects • Case studies • Monetization of all

effects incl. indirect

Assess local impacts, sub-areas, subgroups Specialized surveys / measure for all affected

√

TOTAL TBL – Triple Bottom Line

Net impacts, context Breakeven analysis

√

√

√

SERA

CALCULATING VMT & EMISSIONS

Calculating emissions from VMT for service routes Trash Recycling

Annual gallons per served customer 0.2089 0.3817

MTCO2e per year per served customer 0.0021 0.0039

MTCO2e per route/yr (assuming 930 for trash, 660 for recy) 1.98 2.57

MTCO2e City-wide, residential, 1 new weekly service (190,000 SF-4 HHs) 405 740

MTCO2e City-wide, commercial, 1 new weekly service (68,000 firms) - assuming same efficiency factor (approx 146 266

GHG Emissions from Medium and

Heavy Trucks by Fuel Type Diesel

Carbon Emissions per Gallon (kg CO2E/gal) 10.21

Methane Emissions (g CH4/mile) 0.0051

Nitrous Oxide Emissions (g NOx/mile) 0.0048

Sulfur Oxide Emissions (SO2 ppmv*) 84.04

Carbon Monoxide Emissions (g CO/mile) 0.76

Different factors for CNG

+ VMT

Effects on Streets Wear & Tear

MODEL OLD ROUTES & MILES NEW ROUTES & MILES

CONSOLIDATION EFFECTS NET (RES & COM’L)

SERA

ASSESSING TBL

TBL Element Measurement Method Econ Enviro Social

Direct B&C Model tons, city costs √ Enhanced B&C • Add Generator cost • Net Tip Fees

Model tons Model Generator cost Net tip fees

√

Economic Activity • Output, Jobs & Taxes

Model programs & tons Input/Output Model

√ √

VMT Effects • Street Damage • Emissions

Routing changes from “bundles”, coll’n modeling, emissions from fuel / MPG

√ √ √

Emissions Effects • Net Diversion &

Red’n; (&kWh) • Health Damage • Social Effects

Model tons, Emission Model Social Cost of Carbon Value(s) - literature Breakeven analysis

√ √

Social Effects • Case studies • Monetization of all

effects incl. indirect

Assess local impacts, sub-areas, subgroups Specialized surveys / measure for all affected

√

TOTAL TBL – Triple Bottom Line

Net impacts, context Breakeven analysis

√

√

√

SERA

MODELING EMISSIONS EFFECTS OF DIVERSION

Model tonnage changes

Base case / test case after diversion

Consider Embedded Energy

Net Emissions Benefits (MTCO2e) & Value

($ thous) HP Pgms

Recycling (thous) -1060

Yard waste (thous) 0

Food scraps (thous) -140

C&D (thous) -130

Res. Route Count changes (thous)* 0.66175

Com'l. Route Count changes (thous)* 0.2123

Total Emissions (thous) (negative= reductions)-1329.126

Value at $223/ MTCO2e (thous) $309,700

Emission Value per MSW & CD ton diverted $320

SERA

VALUING EMISSIONS - SOCIAL COST OF CARBON

Market Value or Social

Cost of Carbon Source $/MTCO2E

2018 dollars

Market Value for Carbon EPA (2015) $ 37 $39

Market Value for Carbon

(Obama Admin)

Clean

Power Plan

$ 42 in

2020

$42 in 2020

Market Value for Carbon GAO (2017) $ 50 $51

Social Cost of Carbon

Stanford

(2015) $ 220

$233

Social Cost of Carbon

NRDC

(2013) $ 226

$244

SERA

ASSESSING TBL

TBL Element Measurement Method Econ Enviro Social

Direct B&C Model tons, city costs √ Enhanced B&C • Add Generator cost • Net Tip Fees

Model tons Model Generator cost Net tip fees

√

Economic Activity • Output, Jobs & Taxes

Model programs & tons Input/Output Model

√ √

VMT Effects • Street Damage • Emissions

Routing changes from “bundles”, coll’n modeling, emissions from fuel / MPG

√ √ √

Emissions Effects • Net Diversion &

Red’n; (&kWh) • Health Damage • Social Effects

Model tons, Emission Model Social Cost of Carbon Value(s) - literature Breakeven analysis

√ √

Social Effects • Case studies • Monetization of all

effects incl. indirect

Assess local impacts, sub-areas, subgroups Specialized surveys / measure for all affected

√

TOTAL TBL – Triple Bottom Line

Net impacts, context Breakeven analysis

√

√

√

SERA

ESTIMATING SOCIAL EFFECTS OF DIVERSION

Case study level most common

Handwaving doesn’t fit in B/C monetization

Won’t be taken seriously next to business cost

SERA’s sophisticated method

Specialized surveys monetizing array of impacts to local stakeholders (households, businesses, haulers, operators, etc). Academic approach, large sample, not expensive

Monetization computations

Found significant impacts

SERA

TBL SOCIAL – NEW COM’L PROGRAM

Change in collection in downtown core

Increased diversion – but Costs more – more collections

SERA full benefit / cost co-benefits analysis found 4+:1 ratio

Safety Tourism Access S,P, & D “Lungs…” Recy & org uptake Many others

SERA

ASSESSING TBL

TBL Element Measurement Method Econ Enviro Social

Direct B&C Model tons, city costs √ Enhanced B&C • Add Generator cost • Net Tip Fees

Model tons Model Generator cost Net tip fees

√

Economic Activity • Output, Jobs & Taxes

Model programs & tons Input/Output Model

√ √

VMT Effects • Street Damage • Emissions

Routing changes from “bundles”, coll’n modeling, emissions from fuel / MPG

√ √ √

Emissions Effects • Net Diversion &

Red’n; (&kWh) • Health Damage • Social Effects

Model tons, Emission Model Social Cost of Carbon Value(s) - literature Breakeven analysis

√ √

Social Effects • Case studies • Monetization of all

effects incl. indirect

Assess local impacts, sub-areas, subgroups Specialized surveys / measure for all affected

√

TOTAL TBL – Triple Bottom Line

Net impacts, context Breakeven analysis

√

√

√

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Econ Cost/Ton (Generator & City

Costs and Added Tipping Fees)

TBL Benefits/Ton (Jobs and Economic

Output in County & Social Cost ofCarbon)

TBL Costs and Benefits / Ton

NET COSTS/TON

Net Costs Per Ton (Simple Econ)

~$50/ton

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Econ Cost/Ton (Generator & City

Costs and Added Tipping Fees)

TBL Benefits/Ton (Jobs and Economic

Output in County & Social Cost ofCarbon)

TBL Costs and Benefits / Ton

~0.95:1

NET COSTS/TON

TBL Benefits and Costs Per Ton Adding Regional Economics

BENEFITS/TON - ECON

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

Econ Cost/Ton (Generator & City Costsand Added Tipping Fees)

TBL Benefits/Ton (Jobs and EconomicOutput in County & Social Cost of Carbon)

TBL Costs and Benefits / Ton

BENEFITS/TON

COSTS/TON

TBL Costs and Benefits per Ton Adding Social Cost of Carbon

~8:1

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

Econ Cost/Ton (Generator & City Costsand Added Tipping Fees)

TBL Benefits/Ton (Jobs and EconomicOutput in County & Social Cost of Carbon)

TBL Costs and Benefits / Ton

BENEFITS/TON

COSTS/TON

TBL Costs and Benefits per Ton Adding Social Cost of Carbon

~8:1 Breakeven For Social Cost of Carbon About $2/ton in This example

SERA

SYSTEM “DIVERSION SUPPLY CURVE” / INTEGRATED: VALUE OF CARBON SHIFTS COSTS

22

Source: Skumatz / SERA 2019, all rights reserved

Total New Cost/Ton

Gen & City GOAL

$1,000 Parks MF

SKIP & Recy

$500 City

$400 KEY: Colored Bars - Total Cost/Ton for All generators Plus City Drop-

$300 Dark Dashed Line - Cost/ton to City (average cost/ton for City=$6/ton) Off

$200 Red Dashed Line - Average Cost/Ton to All generators Expand

SKIP

$100

$90 Res PAYT Res

$80 & 3-stream Contract

$70 and Food Plus

$60 Ban Commercial PAYT & Com'l Edu

$50 ABC Law & 3-Bin & Contract

$40 Small Business Pgms Plus

$30 & Schools Initiatives

$20 C&D

$10 Enforce Recy New

$0 Bans Dump- Bans C&D Other

Existing Diversion sters Deposits

Pct Div==> 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80%

GOAL

SERA

23

REDUCING GREENHOUSE GAS – PAYT / DIVERSION IS CHEAPER & FASTER THAN ENERGY EFFICIENCY STRATEGIES

Compared cost per Metric ton of Carbon Equivalent (MTCE)* between energy efficiency & recycling options

Recycling options less expensive than common energy efficiency options (residential & com’l)

Jobs performance also strong

Fort Collins found 40% of their progress in first 5 years of sustainability plan was from Recycling / Solid Waste strategies

MORE MTCE available from EE but recycling cheaper, faster for short run

Source: Skumatz analysis, all rights reserved * MTCE is exact reflection / multiple of metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

CS Recy CS YW PAYT Com'lEE Res EE*

Relative Cost / MTCE and Jobs Impacts (SWMM & EE)

Relative$/MTCO2E

Relative Jobs/$1

SERA

SUMMARY / TBL

3 elements to look beyond simple B/C

Cities should be examining these perspectives

Aid in decision-making / doesn’t make the decision

Breakeven analysis helps with skeptics

Need to go beyond handwaving at leading communities (and businesses)

Capabilities / techniques exist

More informed decisions

THANK YOU!! Questions?

Lisa A. Skumatz, Ph.D. Skumatz Economic Research Associates (SERA)

303/494-1178 skumatz@serainc.com

Web resources: www.paytnow.org;

www.paytinfo.org; serainc.com

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

Econ Cost/Ton (Generator & City Costsand Added Tipping Fees)

TBL Benefits/Ton (Jobs and EconomicOutput in County & Social Cost of Carbon)

TBL Costs and Benefits / Ton

BENEFITS/TON

COSTS/TON

TBL Costs and Benefits per Ton

SERA

ASSESSING TBL

TBL Element Measurement Method Econ Enviro Social

Direct B&C Model tons, city costs √ Enhanced B&C • Add Generator cost • Net Tip Fees

Model tons Model Generator cost Net tip fees

√

Economic Activity • Output, Jobs & Taxes

Model programs & tons Input/Output Model

√ √

VMT Effects • Street Damage • Emissions

Routing changes from “bundles”, coll’n modeling, emissions from fuel / MPG

√ √ √

Emissions Effects • Net Diversion &

Red’n; (&kWh) • Health Damage • Social Effects

Model tons, Emission Model Social Cost of Carbon Value(s) - literature Breakeven analysis

√ √

Social Effects • Case studies • Monetization of all

effects incl. indirect

Assess local impacts, sub-areas, subgroups Specialized surveys / measure for all affected

√

TOTAL TBL – Triple Bottom Line

Net impacts, context Breakeven analysis

√

√

√