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TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE (TBL) APPLIED TO RECYCLING
Going Beyond Hand-Waving
Western Regional Symposium SWANA,
Fish Camp, CA
April 9, 2019
Lisa A. Skumatz, Ph.D., SERA Skumatz Economic Research
Associates Inc. 303/494-1178 ©2017 SERA all rights reserved; may be used with permission of author
SERA
OVERVIEW OF PRESENTATION
What is TBL
How – Economics
How - Emissions,
How - Social
Why / Results / Info for Decisions
Perspective – Quantitative, Best Practices, Implementable Research to advise communities
SERA
WHAT IS TBL? BETTER INFORMING DECISIONS
Econ
Enviro
Social – measured & monet-
ized!!
Real TBL
Econ
Enviro
Social (stories)
Most TBL
Net tip fees
All costs (perspec-
tives)
Net B/C
Direct B&C
Basic B/C
Information for decision, can’t “make” the decision
Good
Better
Best
SERA
ASSESSING TBL
TBL Element Measurement Method Econ Enviro Social
Direct B&C Model tons, city costs √ Enhanced B&C • Add Generator cost • Net Tip Fees
Model tons Model Generator cost Net tip fees
√
Economic Activity • Output, Jobs & Taxes
Model programs & tons Input/Output Model
√ √
VMT Effects • Street Damage • Emissions
Routing changes from “bundles”, coll’n modeling, emissions from fuel / MPG
√ √ √
Emissions Effects • Net Diversion &
Red’n; (&kWh) • Health Damage • Social Effects
Model tons, Emission Model Social Cost of Carbon Value(s) - literature Breakeven analysis
√ √
Social Effects • Case studies • Monetization of all
effects incl. indirect
Assess local impacts, sub-areas, subgroups Specialized surveys / measure for all affected
√
TOTAL TBL – Triple Bottom Line
Net impacts, context Breakeven analysis
√
√
√
SERA
ASSESSING TBL
TBL Element Measurement Method Econ Enviro Social
Direct B&C Model tons, city costs √ Enhanced B&C • Add Generator cost • Net Tip Fees
Model tons Model Generator cost Net tip fees
√
Economic Activity • Output, Jobs & Taxes
Model programs & tons Input/Output Model
√ √
VMT Effects • Street Damage • Emissions
Routing changes from “bundles”, coll’n modeling, emissions from fuel / MPG
√ √ √
Emissions Effects • Net Diversion &
Red’n; (&kWh) • Health Damage • Social Effects
Model tons, Emission Model Social Cost of Carbon Value(s) - literature Breakeven analysis
√ √
Social Effects • Case studies • Monetization of all
effects incl. indirect
Assess local impacts, sub-areas, subgroups Specialized surveys / measure for all affected
√
TOTAL TBL – Triple Bottom Line
Net impacts, context Breakeven analysis
√
√
√
SERA
ASSESSING TBL
TBL Element Measurement Method Econ Enviro Social
Direct B&C Model tons, city costs √ Enhanced B&C • Add Generator cost • Net Tip Fees
Model tons Model Generator cost Net tip fees
√
Economic Activity • Output, Jobs & Taxes
Model programs & tons Input/Output Model
√ √
VMT Effects • Street Damage • Emissions
Routing changes from “bundles”, coll’n modeling, emissions from fuel / MPG
√ √ √
Emissions Effects • Net Diversion &
Red’n; (&kWh) • Health Damage • Social Effects
Model tons, Emission Model Social Cost of Carbon Value(s) - literature Breakeven analysis
√ √
Social Effects • Case studies • Monetization of all
effects incl. indirect
Assess local impacts, sub-areas, subgroups Specialized surveys / measure for all affected
√
TOTAL TBL – Triple Bottom Line
Net impacts, context Breakeven analysis
√
√
√
SERA
MODELING ECONOMIC EFFECTS
Multiple inputs
Collection / transfer
Tonnage changes
Economic impacts
LOCAL-specific/industry
Local or national effects
Model
Direct, indirect, induced economic effects
Output, jobs / labor income, value added, tax effects
SERA
ESTIMATING ECON EFFECTS
10,000 from landfilling to…
Labor Income/yr (in thous)
Total Value Added/yr (in thous)
Output/yr (in thous)
County level effects – Residential
Recycling $290 $343 $478
Yard waste $175 $238 $31
Food scraps $176 $239 $30
State level effects - Residential
Recycling $310 $375 $572
Yard waste $186 $253 $75
Food scraps $188 $254 $75
County level effects – Commercial
Recycling $432 $467 $463
Yard waste $170 $225 $26
Food scraps $170 $225 $25
State level effects – Commercial
Recycling $448 $495 $556
Yard waste $177 $240 $71
Food scraps $177 $240 $70
SERA
ASSESSING TBL
TBL Element Measurement Method Econ Enviro Social
Direct B&C Model tons, city costs √ Enhanced B&C • Add Generator cost • Net Tip Fees
Model tons Model Generator cost Net tip fees
√
Economic Activity • Output, Jobs & Taxes
Model programs & tons Input/Output Model
√ √
VMT Effects • Street Damage • Emissions
Routing changes from “bundles”, coll’n modeling, emissions from fuel / MPG
√ √ √
Emissions Effects • Net Diversion &
Red’n; (&kWh) • Health Damage • Social Effects
Model tons, Emission Model Social Cost of Carbon Value(s) - literature Breakeven analysis
√ √
Social Effects • Case studies • Monetization of all
effects incl. indirect
Assess local impacts, sub-areas, subgroups Specialized surveys / measure for all affected
√
TOTAL TBL – Triple Bottom Line
Net impacts, context Breakeven analysis
√
√
√
SERA
CALCULATING VMT & EMISSIONS
Calculating emissions from VMT for service routes Trash Recycling
Annual gallons per served customer 0.2089 0.3817
MTCO2e per year per served customer 0.0021 0.0039
MTCO2e per route/yr (assuming 930 for trash, 660 for recy) 1.98 2.57
MTCO2e City-wide, residential, 1 new weekly service (190,000 SF-4 HHs) 405 740
MTCO2e City-wide, commercial, 1 new weekly service (68,000 firms) - assuming same efficiency factor (approx 146 266
GHG Emissions from Medium and
Heavy Trucks by Fuel Type Diesel
Carbon Emissions per Gallon (kg CO2E/gal) 10.21
Methane Emissions (g CH4/mile) 0.0051
Nitrous Oxide Emissions (g NOx/mile) 0.0048
Sulfur Oxide Emissions (SO2 ppmv*) 84.04
Carbon Monoxide Emissions (g CO/mile) 0.76
Different factors for CNG
+ VMT
Effects on Streets Wear & Tear
MODEL OLD ROUTES & MILES NEW ROUTES & MILES
CONSOLIDATION EFFECTS NET (RES & COM’L)
SERA
ASSESSING TBL
TBL Element Measurement Method Econ Enviro Social
Direct B&C Model tons, city costs √ Enhanced B&C • Add Generator cost • Net Tip Fees
Model tons Model Generator cost Net tip fees
√
Economic Activity • Output, Jobs & Taxes
Model programs & tons Input/Output Model
√ √
VMT Effects • Street Damage • Emissions
Routing changes from “bundles”, coll’n modeling, emissions from fuel / MPG
√ √ √
Emissions Effects • Net Diversion &
Red’n; (&kWh) • Health Damage • Social Effects
Model tons, Emission Model Social Cost of Carbon Value(s) - literature Breakeven analysis
√ √
Social Effects • Case studies • Monetization of all
effects incl. indirect
Assess local impacts, sub-areas, subgroups Specialized surveys / measure for all affected
√
TOTAL TBL – Triple Bottom Line
Net impacts, context Breakeven analysis
√
√
√
SERA
MODELING EMISSIONS EFFECTS OF DIVERSION
Model tonnage changes
Base case / test case after diversion
Consider Embedded Energy
Net Emissions Benefits (MTCO2e) & Value
($ thous) HP Pgms
Recycling (thous) -1060
Yard waste (thous) 0
Food scraps (thous) -140
C&D (thous) -130
Res. Route Count changes (thous)* 0.66175
Com'l. Route Count changes (thous)* 0.2123
Total Emissions (thous) (negative= reductions)-1329.126
Value at $223/ MTCO2e (thous) $309,700
Emission Value per MSW & CD ton diverted $320
SERA
VALUING EMISSIONS - SOCIAL COST OF CARBON
Market Value or Social
Cost of Carbon Source $/MTCO2E
2018 dollars
Market Value for Carbon EPA (2015) $ 37 $39
Market Value for Carbon
(Obama Admin)
Clean
Power Plan
$ 42 in
2020
$42 in 2020
Market Value for Carbon GAO (2017) $ 50 $51
Social Cost of Carbon
Stanford
(2015) $ 220
$233
Social Cost of Carbon
NRDC
(2013) $ 226
$244
SERA
ASSESSING TBL
TBL Element Measurement Method Econ Enviro Social
Direct B&C Model tons, city costs √ Enhanced B&C • Add Generator cost • Net Tip Fees
Model tons Model Generator cost Net tip fees
√
Economic Activity • Output, Jobs & Taxes
Model programs & tons Input/Output Model
√ √
VMT Effects • Street Damage • Emissions
Routing changes from “bundles”, coll’n modeling, emissions from fuel / MPG
√ √ √
Emissions Effects • Net Diversion &
Red’n; (&kWh) • Health Damage • Social Effects
Model tons, Emission Model Social Cost of Carbon Value(s) - literature Breakeven analysis
√ √
Social Effects • Case studies • Monetization of all
effects incl. indirect
Assess local impacts, sub-areas, subgroups Specialized surveys / measure for all affected
√
TOTAL TBL – Triple Bottom Line
Net impacts, context Breakeven analysis
√
√
√
SERA
ESTIMATING SOCIAL EFFECTS OF DIVERSION
Case study level most common
Handwaving doesn’t fit in B/C monetization
Won’t be taken seriously next to business cost
SERA’s sophisticated method
Specialized surveys monetizing array of impacts to local stakeholders (households, businesses, haulers, operators, etc). Academic approach, large sample, not expensive
Monetization computations
Found significant impacts
SERA
TBL SOCIAL – NEW COM’L PROGRAM
Change in collection in downtown core
Increased diversion – but Costs more – more collections
SERA full benefit / cost co-benefits analysis found 4+:1 ratio
Safety Tourism Access S,P, & D “Lungs…” Recy & org uptake Many others
SERA
ASSESSING TBL
TBL Element Measurement Method Econ Enviro Social
Direct B&C Model tons, city costs √ Enhanced B&C • Add Generator cost • Net Tip Fees
Model tons Model Generator cost Net tip fees
√
Economic Activity • Output, Jobs & Taxes
Model programs & tons Input/Output Model
√ √
VMT Effects • Street Damage • Emissions
Routing changes from “bundles”, coll’n modeling, emissions from fuel / MPG
√ √ √
Emissions Effects • Net Diversion &
Red’n; (&kWh) • Health Damage • Social Effects
Model tons, Emission Model Social Cost of Carbon Value(s) - literature Breakeven analysis
√ √
Social Effects • Case studies • Monetization of all
effects incl. indirect
Assess local impacts, sub-areas, subgroups Specialized surveys / measure for all affected
√
TOTAL TBL – Triple Bottom Line
Net impacts, context Breakeven analysis
√
√
√
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Econ Cost/Ton (Generator & City
Costs and Added Tipping Fees)
TBL Benefits/Ton (Jobs and Economic
Output in County & Social Cost ofCarbon)
TBL Costs and Benefits / Ton
NET COSTS/TON
Net Costs Per Ton (Simple Econ)
~$50/ton
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Econ Cost/Ton (Generator & City
Costs and Added Tipping Fees)
TBL Benefits/Ton (Jobs and Economic
Output in County & Social Cost ofCarbon)
TBL Costs and Benefits / Ton
~0.95:1
NET COSTS/TON
TBL Benefits and Costs Per Ton Adding Regional Economics
BENEFITS/TON - ECON
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
Econ Cost/Ton (Generator & City Costsand Added Tipping Fees)
TBL Benefits/Ton (Jobs and EconomicOutput in County & Social Cost of Carbon)
TBL Costs and Benefits / Ton
BENEFITS/TON
COSTS/TON
TBL Costs and Benefits per Ton Adding Social Cost of Carbon
~8:1
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
Econ Cost/Ton (Generator & City Costsand Added Tipping Fees)
TBL Benefits/Ton (Jobs and EconomicOutput in County & Social Cost of Carbon)
TBL Costs and Benefits / Ton
BENEFITS/TON
COSTS/TON
TBL Costs and Benefits per Ton Adding Social Cost of Carbon
~8:1 Breakeven For Social Cost of Carbon About $2/ton in This example
SERA
SYSTEM “DIVERSION SUPPLY CURVE” / INTEGRATED: VALUE OF CARBON SHIFTS COSTS
22
Source: Skumatz / SERA 2019, all rights reserved
Total New Cost/Ton
Gen & City GOAL
$1,000 Parks MF
SKIP & Recy
$500 City
$400 KEY: Colored Bars - Total Cost/Ton for All generators Plus City Drop-
$300 Dark Dashed Line - Cost/ton to City (average cost/ton for City=$6/ton) Off
$200 Red Dashed Line - Average Cost/Ton to All generators Expand
SKIP
$100
$90 Res PAYT Res
$80 & 3-stream Contract
$70 and Food Plus
$60 Ban Commercial PAYT & Com'l Edu
$50 ABC Law & 3-Bin & Contract
$40 Small Business Pgms Plus
$30 & Schools Initiatives
$20 C&D
$10 Enforce Recy New
$0 Bans Dump- Bans C&D Other
Existing Diversion sters Deposits
Pct Div==> 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80%
GOAL
SERA
23
REDUCING GREENHOUSE GAS – PAYT / DIVERSION IS CHEAPER & FASTER THAN ENERGY EFFICIENCY STRATEGIES
Compared cost per Metric ton of Carbon Equivalent (MTCE)* between energy efficiency & recycling options
Recycling options less expensive than common energy efficiency options (residential & com’l)
Jobs performance also strong
Fort Collins found 40% of their progress in first 5 years of sustainability plan was from Recycling / Solid Waste strategies
MORE MTCE available from EE but recycling cheaper, faster for short run
Source: Skumatz analysis, all rights reserved * MTCE is exact reflection / multiple of metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
CS Recy CS YW PAYT Com'lEE Res EE*
Relative Cost / MTCE and Jobs Impacts (SWMM & EE)
Relative$/MTCO2E
Relative Jobs/$1
SERA
SUMMARY / TBL
3 elements to look beyond simple B/C
Cities should be examining these perspectives
Aid in decision-making / doesn’t make the decision
Breakeven analysis helps with skeptics
Need to go beyond handwaving at leading communities (and businesses)
Capabilities / techniques exist
More informed decisions
THANK YOU!! Questions?
Lisa A. Skumatz, Ph.D. Skumatz Economic Research Associates (SERA)
303/494-1178 [email protected]
Web resources: www.paytnow.org;
www.paytinfo.org; serainc.com
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
Econ Cost/Ton (Generator & City Costsand Added Tipping Fees)
TBL Benefits/Ton (Jobs and EconomicOutput in County & Social Cost of Carbon)
TBL Costs and Benefits / Ton
BENEFITS/TON
COSTS/TON
TBL Costs and Benefits per Ton
SERA
ASSESSING TBL
TBL Element Measurement Method Econ Enviro Social
Direct B&C Model tons, city costs √ Enhanced B&C • Add Generator cost • Net Tip Fees
Model tons Model Generator cost Net tip fees
√
Economic Activity • Output, Jobs & Taxes
Model programs & tons Input/Output Model
√ √
VMT Effects • Street Damage • Emissions
Routing changes from “bundles”, coll’n modeling, emissions from fuel / MPG
√ √ √
Emissions Effects • Net Diversion &
Red’n; (&kWh) • Health Damage • Social Effects
Model tons, Emission Model Social Cost of Carbon Value(s) - literature Breakeven analysis
√ √
Social Effects • Case studies • Monetization of all
effects incl. indirect
Assess local impacts, sub-areas, subgroups Specialized surveys / measure for all affected
√
TOTAL TBL – Triple Bottom Line
Net impacts, context Breakeven analysis
√
√
√