The lifecycles of drought and drought risk management ... S. Pulwarty1, Donald A. Wilhite2,...

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1SeniorScientist,NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,2ProfessorofAppliedClimateScience,UniversityofNebraska,Lincoln,3Consultant,WorldBank, 4NOAAandUSAIDFamineEarlyWarningSystemNetwork,5USGeologicalSurveyandUSAIDFamineEarlyWarningSystemNetwork

Correspondingauthor:roger.pulwarty@noaa.gov

RogerS.Pulwarty1,DonaldA.Wilhite2,Mannava Sivakumar3,AndrewHoell4,JamesVerdin5Thelifecyclesofdroughtanddroughtriskmanagement:Science,earlywarningandadaptationacrosstimescales

Droughtisamongthemostdamaging,andleastunderstood,ofall“natural”hazards. Althoughrecentdrought-relateddisastershavecontributedtoasenseofurgency,droughtshavenotreceivedcommensurateattentionwithinthehazardsresearchandpractitionercommunities,unlikeeventssuchashurricanes,floodsandearthquakeswhichhavedirectandimmediatelyvisibleimpacts.Droughtremainsa“hidden”hazard(UNISDR2011),andyetcanspantimescalesfromseasonstodecades,andspatialscalesfromafewkmtoentireregions.Thereisincreasingconcernworldwideabouttheineffectivenessofcurrentdroughtmanagementpractices.Mostcountries,regionsandcommunities,currentlymanagedroughtriskthroughreactive,crisis-drivenapproaches.Atthesametime,numerousdroughtearlywarningsystemsarebeingimplementedatdifferentscalesofgovernance.Inthisposter,lessonsaredrawnfromover21droughtearlywarningsystemsaroundtheworld(seebelow),inbothdevelopinganddevelopedcountriesandatregional,nationalandcommunitylevels.Twoillustrativecasesarediscussed.Inapro-activeframing,earlywarningsystemsintegrateriskassessment,communicationanddecisionsupportsystemstocrossthespectrumofpotentialdrivers,impactsandresponses(Cutteretal,2012).Successfuldroughtinformationsystemshavemultiplesub-systemssupportedbyresearchinintegratedriskassessment,communication,anddecisionsupportofwhichearlywarningisacomponentandoutput.

Thechallengeofdrought,Post-Sendai

DroughtEarlyWarningInformationSystems:AnAssessment

Thecasesshowthatdroughtinformationsystemsshouldbeseenasinvestmentsratherthan“costs”.fasterratesofchangeofboth climate,includingheatstress/evaporativedemand,and developmentmaydrivesurprisesandrapidtransitionsinwhichearlywarningsofemergingthresholdswillbeincreasinglycritical.Centraltothesuccessfuldroughtriskmanagementisthedevelopment,support,andtrainingofacadreofprofessionalsandpolicyentrepreneurswhoviewtheroleoflinkingscience,policyandpracticesasacoregoaloverthelongterm.

Appraisalsofthesesystems(Pulwarty andSivakumar,2014;Wilhite etal2014)illustratethat:• Effectiveearlywarningdependsuponamulti-sectoralandinterdisciplinarycollaborationamong

allconcernedactorsateachstageinthewarningprocessfrommonitoringtoresponseandevaluation.However,thelinksbetweenthecommunity-basedapproachandthenationalandglobalEWSsarerelativelyweak.

• Impactassessmentandscenariodevelopmentmustapproachclimatemodeloutputfarmorecriticallythanatpresent.Thereisnosubstituteforlocalmonitoringandlocalcommunitiesmustbesupportedindataandsurveillancegathering;

Hydrological

Meteorological

Socio-economic Geographicaldistributionofselecteddroughtearlywarningsystems

Agriculturall

FromWeathertoClimate:Acontinuumandanadaptationdeficit

Thereisanongoingneedtoaddressthecross-scalenatureofclimatedrivers,ofearlywarninginformation-andcorrespondingmonitoring,researchandresponseinthepresenttoshaperesponsestoemergentevents,andsurprisesaswellastrends(Wilhite andPulwarty,2017)

Multipledimensionsandtimescalesofdrought(WMOCAgM)

Onset Intensification Persistence Recovery DroughtEndpoint?

Precipita

tion

Droughtevent

• Meteorologicalindiceshavereturnedtonormal• Soilmoistureisrestored

incultivatedland• Pasturegrowthre-

establishes• Forestgrowthre-

establishes• Reservoirsandlakes

refill

Droughtfootprint

• AgriculturalandNaturalecosystemproductivityreturnstoaveragepre-droughtconditions

• Lakeandreservoirlevelsreturntoaveragepre-droughtconditions

• Socioeconomicconditions:• Dotheyreturnor

stabilize?• Insomecaseswearriveata

“newnormal”

Droughtindicesthreshold

• Level2– 4drought• Watershortagescropdamage,and

firesarewidespread

• Fireriskhightoextreme

• Socioeconomicimpactsare

moderatetosevereandwidespread

• Moderate(Level1-2

• Somecrop&pasturedamage

• Fireriskmoderate-high

• Waterconservationmeasuresactivated• Socioeconomicimpactsaremildto

moderate

• Abnormallydry(Level0)

• Soilmoisturelevelsarelow,crop&pasture

growthdelayed

• Wateralertsareissued

DroughtEvent

Normalprecipitationlevel

WhatImprovementscouldbemadebasedonthisexperience?• EfficacyofFEWSNETtoolsanddatasetsinearlywarning&monitoring.• Theneedtoincorporateregional/nationalscaleclimatevariability/change

analysestrendstoinformmedium- andlong-termdevelopmentprograms• Improveglobalfoodaccessibility(Markets&Trade)analysistobettersupportdecision-making• Intheongoing(20162017)caseofSomalia,thepersistentneedtostrengthenthelinkbetweenEarly

WarningandEarlyResponse,worsenedbycivilinsecurity,conflict,highfoodcommodityandfuelpricesonvulnerablecommunities(FEWSNet Reports,2015-2017)

a.ENSOdroughtimpacts2015;b.March-September2015rainfallanomalyforEastAfricaandforEthiopia;c.PotentialfoodinsecurityoutcomesforJune-September2016 projectedbyFEWSNETinFebruary2016,;d.June2016expectedoutcomesforthesameperiod.

Ethiopiasufferedexceptionaldroughtconditionsin2015-2016,similarinseveritytothe1984droughtthatwasamajorfactorinthefamineinwhichhundredsofthousandsofpeopleperished.Unlikethatdisastrousepisode,widespreadacutefoodinsecuritywasavoidedin2015-2016asaresultofthecombinationofearlywarningofpotentialfoodinsecurity,and,socialsafetynets.Effectiveclimateservices,,includedthenearrealtimeapplicationofphysicalandsocialsciencestoassessfoodinsecurityandsupportresourceprepositioning.Thisextremelysignificantresult,unfortunately,couldnotbereplicatedinSomalia.

a. b

c.

d.

• Developspartnershipanddecision-makingarrangements:networksof public-privatepractitioners:mappingcross-sectoraldecision-makingprocesses

• Advancesobservationsandpredictioncapabilities:Constructriskprofilesincl.theroleofratesofchangeintrends,frequency,andmagnitudeofextremesatdifferentscales

• DevelopsandenablesenablingCapacityandCoordination:IntegrateResearch,Observations,andAssessmentsintoearlywarninginformationoncriticaltransitionsandcapacityforresponse(Pulwarty andVerdin,2013)

AuthorizedbythePresidentandU.S.Congress,NIDIShasbecomewidely-acknowledgedasatrusted,credibleandusablesourceofinformationandcoordinationfromlocaltonationallevelsthat:

IPCCSREX,2012)

Slowonsetevents/surprises?

Emergencyresponse…Resourceallocation…Infrastructuredesign

Earlywarningsystems-insurance Integratedvulnerabilityassessmentriskmanagement

10YEARS

100YEARS

SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL DECADE-TO-CENTURY

1DAY

1SEASON

Case1:TheFamineEarlyWarningSystemNetwork:EastAfricandroughtandfoodsecurity

Case2:TheU.S.NationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystem

Theadvantagesanddisadvantagesofdifferentapproachestakentodroughthavebeenidentifiedovermanyyears,ashasthenecessityoflocally-drivenapproaches(Table).Inachangingclimatetherearetheadditionalneedstoconsider(1)Systemdecompensation:exhaustingthecapacitytoadaptwhichresultsinastrongriskofunderestimatingthecomplexityofadaptation,(2)Alternativemeansofaddressingwatersecurity.Optimaladaptationpracticesincludenovelconfigurationsofefficiencyandlandandwaterresources (Wilhite andPulwarty,2017).Thenew,multipartnerInternationalDroughtManagementProgramme isdevelopingin-countrycasestoillustratethetangiblebenefitsofproactivevs.reactiveapproachestodroughtriskmanagement.

ReferencesCutter,Setal.,2012:ManagingtheRisksfromClimateExtremesattheLocalLevel.Chapter5inIPCCSpecialReportonManagingtheRisksofExtremes&DisastertoAdvanceClimateChangeAdaptation.CambridgePresspp.291-338Pulwarty,R.,M.Sivakumar,2014:Informationsystemsinachangingclimate:Earlywarningsanddroughtriskmanagement.WeatherandClimateExtremes 3,14-21Pulwarty,R.,andJ.Verdin,2013:Craftingearlywarningsystems.inBirkmann.J.(ed)MeasuringVulnerabilitytoNaturalHazards:TowardsDisasterResilient SocietiesUNUPressTokyoUNISDR,2011:GlobalAssessmentReport:.Chapter3:Droughtrisks.GenevaSwitzerland.Wilhite,D.M.Sivakumar,R.Pulwarty,2014:Managingdroughtriskinachangingclimate:TheroleofNationalDroughtPolicy.WeatherandClimateExtremes 3,4-13Wilhite,D.andR.Pulwarty,2017:DroughtandWaterCrises.CRCPress,TaylorandFrancis(inpress)

CrisisManagementInvestments• Expensive- Costs+costsofinaction• Repeatspastmistakes

Post-impact• Relief/emergencyassistance

Treatsthesymptomsofvulnerability- impacts,adjustment• Canrewardpoorresourcemanagement• Canhelpthealreadywell-offattheexpense

ofthemostvulnerable

Increasesvulnerabilityassistancefromgovernment&donors

RiskManagementInvestments• Short-term—EWS,networks• Long-term—institutionalcapacity,structuraladjustments

Pre-impact• Mitigation,riskreduction• Testsystembrittleness

Promotesimprovedstewardshipofnaturalresources• Identifiesandreduces

vulnerability,buildscapacityandself-reliance

Drought,CrisesandRisk:Weighingthecostsandthebenefits