Social Planning

Social Planning

Designing the Evolving Artifact

Designing on a Societal Scale

• Many visions of alternative organizations of society described– In books: Plato, More, Marx– By revolutionaries: America, France, Russia

• Large scale plans for the physical environment (e.g. river valleys)

• Going to the moon vs. social design– “As there is some degree of depravity in mankind which

requires a certain degree of circumspection and distrust, so there are other qualities in human nature which justify a certain portion of esteem and confidence.”

Problem Representation

• Alternative views of Marshall Plan– Commodity screening, balance of trade, European

cooperation, bilateral pledge, investment bank, policy & administration

• Variety of representation can paralyze decision– Conflicting assumptions – Resource limits

• Need a representation so parties can act on creating and making use of new system

Limiting Resources

• Are not always obvious– Example of message traffic

• Scarcity of information vs. scarcity of attention

• What are the limiting resources in “Big Data” visions?

• May not be able to quantitatively reason about limiting resources – Example of emission standards

• Number of cars, how far they are driven, their design/cost, quality of air as function of emissions and other features, effects on human health

– Qualitative vs. quantitative goals and representations

Data for Planning

• Need to incorporate assessment of data quality into process

• Good predictions require– Theoretical understanding of phenomena– Reliable data regarding initial conditions

• Club of Rome predictions (Malthusian catastrophe)– Too much – specific dates not believable– Too little – did not consider alternative futures (e.g.

technical advances)• Paul Kennedy’s “Preparing for the 21st Century”

– Predictions about aging population

How do we Plan in Such Situations

• Unrealistic to believe we can make accurate long-term predictions – Evil Spock’s social determinism

• Need short-term, medium-term and long-term goals and designs to enable feedback

• Can assess whether – External system is proceeding as expected– Design is operating as desired

The Client?

• Professions have adapted to bounded rationality– Impact of client access to more information?

• Architect as teacher, advocate and (not just) executor– Dual role of artist and professional

• “he wasn’t very happy at first. But then we smoked some good cigars, … and we drank some glasses of a good Rhein wine, … and then he began to like it very much.”

• Medical profession– Challenge of balancing the cost and quality of medical

care

Planning and Society

• Society is not a passive instrument– It will adapt to changes– Game between planners and individuals (e.g. tax

codes)• Belonging to organizations– Restricts liberties– Attain goals (freedoms) that could not reach

otherwise

Time and Space Horizons

• Metaphor of lamp in a long hall– Discounting the future to make

the problem tractable• Unconcern about future may

be rational– Unable to predict accurately– Consequences will be defuse

• Society moving to longer-scale thinking/planning– Oil policy: Reduce dependence, exhaust supply, global

warming– Amount of information can overwhelm decision makers

Challenge to Long-term Planning

• Two issues– Needs of present takes precedence over long-term

planning• Good planners called in for immediate

tasks– If sufficiently isolated to do long-term

work• May be too

isolated and no one listens

Designing without Final Goals

• Goals can be intermediate– Lead to new goals (e.g. get a CS degree)

• Result of near-term actions creates environment for next stage

• Evolution as model for social planning• Does evolution have a direction?– Simon hypothesizes towards variety and complexity (not

progress!)– Gould would disagree except for initial stage and around

punctures in equilibrium

Curriculum for Social Design

1. Bounded rationality2. Data for planning3. Identifying client4. Organizations in social design5. Time and space horizons6. Designing without final goals