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Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP. COPC Meeting Offutt Air Force Base, NE May 2, 2007. Satellite Data Ingest. Five Order of Magnitude Increases in Satellite Data Over 15 Years (2000-2015). Daily Satellite & Radar Observation Count. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
Director, NCEP
COPC Meeting
Offutt Air Force Base, NE
May 2, 2007
2
*Science, data resolution, computer issues,… need to be addressedTop priority Science issue: Surface Emissivity
Received = All observations received operationally from providersSelected = Observations selected as suitable for use (cloud free, …)*Assimilated = Observations actually assimilated into models
Five Order of Magnitude Increases in SatelliteData Over 15 Years (2000-2015)
Cou
nt (
Mill
ions
)
Daily Satellite & Radar Observation
Count
20001990 2015
100 M obs
125 M obs
Level 2 Radar
239 M obs
Satellite Data Ingest
Re
ceived
Da
ta
Daily Percentage of Data
Ingested into ModelsS
ele
cted
Data
100%
7%
Assim
ilate
d Da
ta
239.5M
17.3M5.2M2%
*2006 DataNPOESS
3
Funding FTE
NOAA $8,745 41.6
NASA $1,442 5.3
DOD $4,901 17.4
NSF/NCAR $60 0.0
Total $15,148 64.3
Infrastructure*External
R&D / R2O
Internal
R&D / R2OTotals
NOAA $2,945 $500 $5,300 $8,745
NASA $285 $500 $657 $1,442
DoD $0 $500 $4,401 $4,901
Total $3,230 $1,500 $10,358 $15,088
* Infrastructure Includes: Director, Deputy, Program Support, Travel, Pubs, Desktop IT, Forecast System Maintenance, Database Management, High-Performance Computing/Communications
HPC/C accounts for 60% of $
JCSDA Resources(In $K)
4
• COSMIC capability in NCEP Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS)
• Increased AIRS data ingested (all fields of view)
• New NCEP GDAS –
• Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis
• Hybrid (sigma-pressure) coordinate model
• Global and regional application with same code
• Implemented 1 May 2007
• Improved short-term forecasts
• Includes COSMIC and AIRS upgrades
Major Accomplishments:Highlights
5
• Key Milestones Achieved since November 2006 COPC Meeting:• Completed WINDSAT vector wind data forecast impact
assessment using the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) – improved forecasts
• Completed AIRS forecast impact assessment using all fields of view in the NCEP GFS – improved forecasts
• Completed COSMIC forecast impact assessment using the NCEP GFS; assessment was completed within seven months of data availability; possible data QC issues under investigation
• Implemented Jason altimeter data into the NCEP operational Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS)
• Completed AMSR-E radiance forecast impact assessment using the NCEP GFS
• Completed SSMI/S radiance forecast impact assessment using the NCEP GFS
Major Accomplishments: Details
6
Major Accomplishments: EMC-GMAO-STAR Code Management for Atmospheric Data Assimilation
Time
GMAO
EMC
* * EMC, GMAO System change Repository change
+ Repository Merger (new tag)
* * * * * * * *
* * * * * * *
Repository
1 3Accepted changes
2
GSI & CRTM supported
Process: similar to ECMWF & Météo-Francewho have annual code mergers
But, to promote collaboration, EMC and GMAO use same repository and mergers are more frequent (3 months)
Protocols1 – EMC, GMAO take (agreed-upon) merged
code from repository to begin work2 – EMC, GMAO incorporate developments into
repository3 – Code mergers, repository changes and
timing are NCEP’s decision
+ +
3 months
7
GSI Summary
• 500 hPa heights neutral in both Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere
• Improved hurricane track forecasts beyond 3 days
•
• Forecast mid-latitude winds fit radiosondes significantly better (0-48 h)
• Bias of 200 hPa winds over East Asia substantially reduced in GSI hybrid
• GSI hybrid analysed moisture closer to radiosondes
• GSI hybrid precip over continental US slightly more skill than operational
• Rms vector wind error in pry at 200 and 850 hPa in tropics reduced
Ops
GSI
OpsGSI
8
GSI 6h Forecast Error – June 2006
Operations GSI Parallel
SSI – large 6h forecast errorGSI – well balanced incrementFields leads to small 6 h error
9
~5 day forecasts from the operational GFS (top left) and the hybrid/GSI GFS (top right) and verifying analysis (bottom) on 1 April 1200 UTC
ExampleOf 5 dayForecast
10 m windValid
1 April 2007NCEP
ParallelSystem
GSIAnalysis
ParallelForecast
OpsForecast
10
Impact Study with COSMIC
• 500 hPa height anomaly correlation as a function of forecast day for two different experiments: – PRYnc (assimilation of
operational obs ) – PRYc (PRYnc + COSMIC)
• Approximately 1,000 COSMIC profiles were assimilated per day
• Results with COSMIC are very encouraging
11
Operational Parallel
Total Ozone Forecast Errors(courtesy Craig Long – CPC)
NC
EP
Implem
entation
August 2006Ozone Physics
• Uses algorithms contributed by NRL through JCSDA • Adapted by EMC, evaluated by CPC
• Removes low tropical bias in total ozone in GFS
NCEP / NRL Interaction
12
Satellite Data Status – May 2007
Jason Altimeter Implemented into NCEP GODAS
AIRS with All Fields of View Implemented – 1 May 2007
MODIS Winds Implemented– 1 May 2007
NOAA-18 AMSU-A Implemented– 1 May 2007
NOAA-18 MHS Implemented– 1 May 2007
TOPEX,ERS-2 ENVISAT ALTIMETER Test and Development (Envisat) ERS-2 (dead) TOPEX implemented in NCEP GODAS
SSMI/S Radiances Preliminary forecast assessment completed
GOES 1xa imagery Forecast Assessment in progress
METOP AMSU-A, MHS, HIRS Forecast Assessment in progress
COSMIC/CHAMP Implemented (COSMIC – 1 May); CHAMP in prep.
MODIS Winds v2. Test and Development
WINDSAT Preliminary forecast assessment completed
AMSR/E Radiances Preliminary forecast assessment completed
AIRS/MODIS Sounding Channels Assim. Data in Preparation
GOES – SW Winds To be Tested
GOES Hourly Winds To be Tested
GOES 11 and 12 Clear Sky Rad. Assim(6.7µm) To be Tested
MTSAT 1R Wind Assim. Data in Preparation
AURA OMI * Test and Development
FY – 2C * Data in Preparation
13
Status of the JCSDA MOA
• NOAA, Air Force, and Navy legal reviews have been completed• Awaiting resolution of one remaining issue with NASA regarding the number of signatories• The MOA should be ready for signature within 30 days after successful resolution of signatory issue
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