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Enter Climate ChangeEnter Climate Change
Source: NASA
Climate Change CooperationClimate Change Cooperation
The ProblemThe ProblemHuman Induced Increase in GHGHuman Induced Increase in GHG
The Increase in COThe Increase in CO2 2 is Not is Not
UncertainUncertain
Effect on Global Mean TemperatureEffect on Global Mean Temperature
The ScienceThe Science
Svante Arrhenius (1896) – doubling of CO2 Svante Arrhenius (1896) – doubling of CO2 -> increase by 5C-> increase by 5C
Transnational scientific collaboration: 1970s-Transnational scientific collaboration: 1970s-1980s1980s
International Panel on Climate Change International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): 1988 by WMO and UNEP(IPCC): 1988 by WMO and UNEP
IPCCIPCC
Doubling of CO2Doubling of CO2– 1.4-5C t increase1.4-5C t increase
Sources of Scientific UncertaintySources of Scientific Uncertainty
Sulfate aerosol – cooling effectSulfate aerosol – cooling effect Ocean – absorption capacityOcean – absorption capacity Clouds – cooling or warming effectClouds – cooling or warming effect Non-linear effect – shutdown of the Non-linear effect – shutdown of the
circulation of the North Atlantic circulation of the North Atlantic (thermohaline circulations)?(thermohaline circulations)?
The ActorsThe Actors
Rest of the World35%
USA21%
China15%
EU14%
Russia6%India
5%
Japan4%
The BreakthroughThe Breakthrough
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Rio 1992)(Rio 1992)– 189 countries joined189 countries joined– Common but differentiated responsibilityCommon but differentiated responsibility– Stabilization at 1990 emission levels desirableStabilization at 1990 emission levels desirable– Reporting requirementReporting requirement– GEF: Main funding mechanismGEF: Main funding mechanism
COP at KyotoCOP at Kyoto
Lead actors: EU reductions of CO2, NOx, methane from Lead actors: EU reductions of CO2, NOx, methane from 1990 levels 1990 levels
Transition economies: Emissions considerably (~30%) Transition economies: Emissions considerably (~30%) below 1990 levels ->hot air.below 1990 levels ->hot air.
US Position: stabilization of all gases at 1990 levels and US Position: stabilization of all gases at 1990 levels and emissions trading to offset costs, differential targets, emissions trading to offset costs, differential targets, participation of developing countriesparticipation of developing countries– Canada, Japan, Australia, New ZeelandCanada, Japan, Australia, New Zeeland
Developing countries: industrialized countries should take Developing countries: industrialized countries should take the leadthe lead
The Kyoto ProtocolThe Kyoto Protocol Emission reduction targets for industrialized countries Emission reduction targets for industrialized countries
(Annex I countries)(Annex I countries)-total emissions -5.2% of 1992 by 2008-2012-total emissions -5.2% of 1992 by 2008-2012-national ceilings-national ceilings-Six gases included (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous -Six gases included (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, HFCs, PFCs and sulfur hexafluoride). Global oxide, HFCs, PFCs and sulfur hexafluoride). Global Warming Potentials used to translate to C02 equivalent.Warming Potentials used to translate to C02 equivalent.
No targets for developing countriesNo targets for developing countries
Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation, Clean Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Development Mechanism (CDM)
COP Bonn and MarrakechCOP Bonn and Marrakech
Implementation of flexible mechanismsImplementation of flexible mechanisms Forest sinks – countries can receive credits Forest sinks – countries can receive credits
for carbon sinks (forests)for carbon sinks (forests) ““Enforcement” mechanismsEnforcement” mechanisms
Flexible MechanismsFlexible Mechanisms
Emissions tradingEmissions trading– Countries with binding emissions tradeCountries with binding emissions trade
Joint ImplementationsJoint Implementations– Country with binding target receives emission credits for Country with binding target receives emission credits for
emission abatement projects in another country with a emission abatement projects in another country with a binding targetbinding target
Clean Development MechanismClean Development Mechanism– Countries with targets receive credits for abatement Countries with targets receive credits for abatement
projects in developing countries – 2% tax for adaptationprojects in developing countries – 2% tax for adaptation
Entry into ForceEntry into Force
55 ratifications55 ratifications 55% of Annex I 55% of Annex I
emissionsemissions
http://unfccc.int/resource/kpthermo.html
Country % of 1990 Annex I Emissions
US 36.1 EU 24.2 Russia 17.4 Japann 8.5 Canada 3.3 Poland 3 Other EU Accecession
3.4
Two Views on KyotoTwo Views on Kyoto
Is the KP fatally flawed or is it a meaningful Is the KP fatally flawed or is it a meaningful step in the right direction? step in the right direction?
Kyoto Protocol ControversiesKyoto Protocol Controversies
Hot air Hot air Non-participationNon-participation LeakageLeakage Measuring additionally in JI and CDMMeasuring additionally in JI and CDM EnforcementEnforcement
– ““paper” tradespaper” trades– Non-complianceNon-compliance– ExitExit
Current DevelopmentsCurrent Developments
Russia ratified 2005Russia ratified 2005
EU carbon emissions trading projected started EU carbon emissions trading projected started January/February 2005January/February 2005– National allocation plans (cover about 5,000 out of National allocation plans (cover about 5,000 out of
estimated 12,000 large emitters)estimated 12,000 large emitters)– Approval of national emission plansApproval of national emission plans– Trade in emission allowancesTrade in emission allowances
COP 11, Montreal, November-December 2005COP 11, Montreal, November-December 2005 COP 12, Nairobi, November 2006.COP 12, Nairobi, November 2006.
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