Enter Climate ChangeEnter Climate Change

Source: NASA

Climate Change CooperationClimate Change Cooperation

The ProblemThe ProblemHuman Induced Increase in GHGHuman Induced Increase in GHG

The Increase in COThe Increase in CO2 2 is Not is Not

UncertainUncertain

Effect on Global Mean TemperatureEffect on Global Mean Temperature

The ScienceThe Science

Svante Arrhenius (1896) – doubling of CO2 Svante Arrhenius (1896) – doubling of CO2 -> increase by 5C-> increase by 5C

Transnational scientific collaboration: 1970s-Transnational scientific collaboration: 1970s-1980s1980s

International Panel on Climate Change International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): 1988 by WMO and UNEP(IPCC): 1988 by WMO and UNEP

IPCCIPCC

Doubling of CO2Doubling of CO2– 1.4-5C t increase1.4-5C t increase

Sources of Scientific UncertaintySources of Scientific Uncertainty

Sulfate aerosol – cooling effectSulfate aerosol – cooling effect Ocean – absorption capacityOcean – absorption capacity Clouds – cooling or warming effectClouds – cooling or warming effect Non-linear effect – shutdown of the Non-linear effect – shutdown of the

circulation of the North Atlantic circulation of the North Atlantic (thermohaline circulations)?(thermohaline circulations)?

The ActorsThe Actors

Rest of the World35%

USA21%

China15%

EU14%

Russia6%India

5%

Japan4%

The BreakthroughThe Breakthrough

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Rio 1992)(Rio 1992)– 189 countries joined189 countries joined– Common but differentiated responsibilityCommon but differentiated responsibility– Stabilization at 1990 emission levels desirableStabilization at 1990 emission levels desirable– Reporting requirementReporting requirement– GEF: Main funding mechanismGEF: Main funding mechanism

COP at KyotoCOP at Kyoto

Lead actors: EU reductions of CO2, NOx, methane from Lead actors: EU reductions of CO2, NOx, methane from 1990 levels 1990 levels

Transition economies: Emissions considerably (~30%) Transition economies: Emissions considerably (~30%) below 1990 levels ->hot air.below 1990 levels ->hot air.

US Position: stabilization of all gases at 1990 levels and US Position: stabilization of all gases at 1990 levels and emissions trading to offset costs, differential targets, emissions trading to offset costs, differential targets, participation of developing countriesparticipation of developing countries– Canada, Japan, Australia, New ZeelandCanada, Japan, Australia, New Zeeland

Developing countries: industrialized countries should take Developing countries: industrialized countries should take the leadthe lead

The Kyoto ProtocolThe Kyoto Protocol Emission reduction targets for industrialized countries Emission reduction targets for industrialized countries

(Annex I countries)(Annex I countries)-total emissions -5.2% of 1992 by 2008-2012-total emissions -5.2% of 1992 by 2008-2012-national ceilings-national ceilings-Six gases included (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous -Six gases included (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, HFCs, PFCs and sulfur hexafluoride). Global oxide, HFCs, PFCs and sulfur hexafluoride). Global Warming Potentials used to translate to C02 equivalent.Warming Potentials used to translate to C02 equivalent.

No targets for developing countriesNo targets for developing countries

Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation, Clean Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Development Mechanism (CDM)

COP Bonn and MarrakechCOP Bonn and Marrakech

Implementation of flexible mechanismsImplementation of flexible mechanisms Forest sinks – countries can receive credits Forest sinks – countries can receive credits

for carbon sinks (forests)for carbon sinks (forests) ““Enforcement” mechanismsEnforcement” mechanisms

Flexible MechanismsFlexible Mechanisms

Emissions tradingEmissions trading– Countries with binding emissions tradeCountries with binding emissions trade

Joint ImplementationsJoint Implementations– Country with binding target receives emission credits for Country with binding target receives emission credits for

emission abatement projects in another country with a emission abatement projects in another country with a binding targetbinding target

Clean Development MechanismClean Development Mechanism– Countries with targets receive credits for abatement Countries with targets receive credits for abatement

projects in developing countries – 2% tax for adaptationprojects in developing countries – 2% tax for adaptation

Entry into ForceEntry into Force

55 ratifications55 ratifications 55% of Annex I 55% of Annex I

emissionsemissions

http://unfccc.int/resource/kpthermo.html

Country % of 1990 Annex I Emissions

US 36.1 EU 24.2 Russia 17.4 Japann 8.5 Canada 3.3 Poland 3 Other EU Accecession

3.4

Two Views on KyotoTwo Views on Kyoto

Is the KP fatally flawed or is it a meaningful Is the KP fatally flawed or is it a meaningful step in the right direction? step in the right direction?

Kyoto Protocol ControversiesKyoto Protocol Controversies

Hot air Hot air Non-participationNon-participation LeakageLeakage Measuring additionally in JI and CDMMeasuring additionally in JI and CDM EnforcementEnforcement

– ““paper” tradespaper” trades– Non-complianceNon-compliance– ExitExit

Current DevelopmentsCurrent Developments

Russia ratified 2005Russia ratified 2005

EU carbon emissions trading projected started EU carbon emissions trading projected started January/February 2005January/February 2005– National allocation plans (cover about 5,000 out of National allocation plans (cover about 5,000 out of

estimated 12,000 large emitters)estimated 12,000 large emitters)– Approval of national emission plansApproval of national emission plans– Trade in emission allowancesTrade in emission allowances

COP 11, Montreal, November-December 2005COP 11, Montreal, November-December 2005 COP 12, Nairobi, November 2006.COP 12, Nairobi, November 2006.