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CIWARA – Climate change Impacts on West African agriculture – a
Regional Assessment
An AgMIP research venture for the West Africa region
CIWARA = ?
• In the Bambara mythology, the ciwara is a laboring wild animal representing the creation of farming. Throughout the Manding area of West Africa, it symbolizes courage, selflessness and wisdom, and is awarded to meritorious workers
CIWARA: Goals
• G1. Substantially improve the characterization of food security risks due to climate variability and change in semi-arid and sub-humid West Africa.
• G2. Enhance the adaptive capacity of West African populations for changing environmental (biophysical, socio-economic) and technological conditions.
CIWARA: Sites
Country Site(district)
Rainfall (proxy for agro-ecological potential)
Population density(proxy for
intensification)
Lower Higher Lower Higher
Burkina Faso
Yatenga x xKenedougou x x
GhanaLawra/Jirapa x x
Tolon K. x x
MaliKoutiala x x
Bougouni x x
NigerKollo x xAguie x x
SenegalKaffrine x x
Nioro x x
CIWARA: Sites, aridity index
CIWARA: Sites, LGP
CIWARA: Sites, Rainfall
CIWARA: Sites, Population Density
CIWARA: Sites, Dominant Language
CIWARA: facts & numbers8 outputs:• Climates• Crops• Yields• Scales• Trade-offs• Farmers• Policy• Capacity
5 countries:• B. Faso• Ghana• Mali• Niger• Senegal
4 crops:• Maize• Millet• Sorghum• Peanut
3 crop models:• APSIM• DSSAT• SarraH
4 themes:• climate• crop• Economics• IT
3 CC themes:• RAPs• aggregation• uncertainty
3 capacity builing levels:
• 15 scientists
(senior + junior, male + female), 10 institutions (NARS, NHMS, NGO, ARO, academia, CGIAR, ARI), 10 students (2 /country)
CIWARA: Approach=f(theme, scale)
CIWARA: Objective 1, “climates”
• Objective: Assemble, curate and migrate local to regional climate, crop, economic data in a standard, open-access database
• Outcome: Adequate granularity is secured to ensure representativeness and relevance of the current and future assessments for West African conditions
• Lead: S.B. Traoré / Agrhymet• Timeline: Now-Mar 2013 (7 months)
CIWARA: Objective 2, “crops”
• Objective: Improve and compare crop models performances for West African millets, sorghums, and their supporting soils
• Outcome: Relevance of existing models to West African conditions is strengthened with key regional traits & responses incorporated, including enrichment of intra-specific agro-biodiversity in models
• Lead: J.B. Naab / SARI, P.S. Traoré / ICRISAT• Timeline: Now-Mar 2013 (7 months)
CIWARA: Objective 3, “yields”
• Objective: Generate contrasted yield baselines (2) and scenarios (4) for West African maize, millets, peanuts, and sorghums
• Outcome: Regional climate variability and change patterns (historical, projected) are translated into yield probabilities for representative germplasm, management practices, and locations
• Lead: J.B. Naab / SARI• Timeline: Jan-Jun 2013 (6 months)
CIWARA: Objective 4, “scales”
• Objective: Aggregate point-level yield probabilities to sub-national scale and assess uncertainty thereof against independent datasets
• Outcome: Sources of bias and uncertainty in aggregate production statistics (conversely: downscaled farm information services) are better understood for heterogeneous smallholder agricultural landscapes
• Lead: P.S. Traoré / ICRISAT, M. Adam / CIRAD• Timeline: Apr-Sep 2013 (6 months)
CIWARA: Objective 5, “trade-offs”
• Objective: Elicit representative agricultural pathways and quantify climate impacts using the Trade-Off Analysis (TOA)-MD tools
• Outcome: Sub-national socio-economic, technological trajectories subject to future climate forcing are simulated and used as reference in future regional assessments of climate change impacts
• Lead: I. Hathié / IPAR• Timeline: Apr-Sep 2013 (6 months)
CIWARA: Objective 6, “farmers”• Objective: Improve the granularity, relevance,
and spatial coverage of agro-meteorological advisories for smallholder farmers
• Outcome: Generic crop calendars and agro-meteorological advisories are refined into location-specific, ecotype-specific decision support tools, and scaled out from Mali to Senegal
• Lead: D.Z. Diarra / Meteo-Mali, O. Ndiaye / ANACIM
• Timeline: Apr-Dec 2013 (9 months)
CIWARA: Objective 7, “policy”
• Objective: Update selected policy instruments (e.g. NAPAs) with project results at national (5 countries), regional (ECOWAS) levels
• Outcome: West African policy makers are better informed about local impacts of climate variability, change, and can deploy adaptation and mitigation strategies that are more relevant and effective
• Lead: I. Hathié / IPAR• Timeline: Sep 2013 - Feb 2014 (5 months)
CIWARA: Objective 8, “capacity”
• Objective: Build regional research capacity for integrated climate change impacts assessments at scientist, graduate student levels
• Outcome: An “AgMIP alumni” core group is created with increased trans-disciplinary expertise and a new generation of future PhD graduates is in training within AgMIP and/or affiliated networks
• Lead: S.G.K. Adiku / UG• Timeline: now-Feb 2014 (18 months)
CIWARA: capacity gaps
BF GH ML NE SN
OI: Climate ? n ? y y
O II: Crops y y y y n
O III: Yields y y ? y n
O IV: Scales
n n y ? n
O V: Trade-off
n y n n y
O VI: Farmers
n n y n y
OV II: Policy
n y n ? Y
Identified student topicsTopic Host
UniversityLocal
SupervisorExternal
Supervisor Student name
Variability of weather X’tics relevant to Agric win the 20th
Century and CC
UGB, Saint Louis
Pr. Aliou Diop + Ousmane
Ndiaye
B. Sarr, Agrhymet, Niamey Bilal Sow
Defining production systems diversity to run crop models using expert knowledge, GIS
and household statistics
UCAD, DakarPr. Ali Mbaye +
Ibrahima Hathie
M. Adam + P.C.S. Traore, ICRISAT,
Bamako
to be identified
Integration of indigenous knowledge in meteorological
advisories to farmersU. Bamako Pr. Bayoko +
D.Z. DiarraS.B. Traore,
Agrhymet, Niameyto be
identified
Comparative effects of tillering and planning density on
predicted millet yield in APSIM + DSSAT
U. BamakoDr. M.
Kouressy + P.C.S. Traore
D.S.K. Maccarthy + M. Diancoumba, UG,
Kpong
F. Akinseye? - tbi
Simulation of crop growth risks and adaptation under variable C using modeling
approaches
UG, LegonPr. S.G.K.
Adiku + D.S.K. Maccarthy
Ousmane Ndiaye, ANACIM, Dakar tbi
Identified student topics (contd)Topic Host
UniversityLocal
SupervisorExternal
Supervisor Student name
Implications of CC on small holder farmers in the Guinea+
Sudan Savannah zones of West Africa (NR, Ghana & S.B.
Faso)
UDS, Tamale J. AmikuzunoM.Sanon + T. Lodoun
+ Pr. Tbi, Univ. Ouaga
tbi
Same as previous(UW, Ghana & W.B.Faso) Uni. Ouaga
Pr. tbi + M. Sanon + T.
Lodoun
J. Amikuzuno, UDS, Tamale tbi
Simulating soil water conservation methods on
millet yields with APSIM/DSSAT
Uni. Ouaga Pr. tbi P.I. Akponikpe, Uni. Parakou tbi
CC and adaptation strategies for agro-meteorological
servicesUni. Niamey Pr. tbi + B.
SarrD.Z. Diarra, Meteo-
Mali, Bamako tbi
tbd Uni. Niamey Pr. tbi + F. Dougbedji I. Hathie, IPAR, Dakar tbi
Simulating micro dosing effects on soil nutrients using
crop modelingUni. Niamey Prof. Xxx
/BenoitAdiku/ Dilys (UG,
Ghana) tbi
CIWARA: $ resources
Univ. Ghana: USD 165,741Agrhymet: USD 174,010
ICRISAT: USD 175,954NARES (x4): USD 186,167NHMS (x2): USD 98,113
_____________________Total: USD 799,986
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