Scenarios & Branding | Patrick Collings 2011

by mark visosky

scenarios as the foundation of brand strategy in today’s volatile socio-economic and business environment

scenarios as the foundation of brand strategy in today’s volatile socio-economic and business environmentPatrick CollingsSagacitePatrick CollingsSagacite

Branding Conference8 - 9 June 2011Branding Conference8 - 9 June 2011

introduction to a new way of thinking about

brand strategy

photo by bart

Business & branding

Socio-economic & business environment

Management toolbox

Scenarios

Applying scenarios

business & branding

brands have climbed the internal ladderof importance tothe point that...

photo by @rild

brand strategyequals

business strategy

...and if they were bic pens

Note: Spoke about how deciding where you want to position a brand determines the entire organizational structure and operation. Example of expensive and cheap pens.

“...many enlightened organizations are moving branding entirely away from communications

and toward connecting strategy, culture, and a wider stakeholder involvement.”

Nicholas Ind & Majken SchultzStrategy + Business

socio-economic &business environment

photo by tenisca

the world is facing increased turbulence over the next

decade and beyond Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World

released by the National Intelligence Council

caused by leadership change in emerging markets, major policy shifts by governments,

increased armed conflict, interlinked economies, budget cuts by local and national government

by antitezo

VUCAvolatility uncertainity complexity ambiguity

Feature Normal Economy New Normality Economy

Economic Cycles Predictable Absent

Upturns / Booms Definable ( Avg. 7 Years) Unpredictable / Erratic

Downturns / Recessions Definable ( Avg.10 Months) Unpredictable / Erratic

Potential Impact of Issues Low High

Overall Investment Profile Expansive, Broad Cautious, Focused

Market Risk Tolerance Acceptance Avoidance

Customer Attitudes Confident Insecure

Customer Preferences Steady, Evolving Apprehensive, Flight to Safety

taken from Chaotics

relentless innovation

Note: This slide and the following ones looked at how brands are contributing to and experiencing volatility.

demand for results

Note: The example used here was how Google scrapped its non-performing virtual world after a couple of months.

history is no guarantee of tomorrow

and the realization that past glories are just that

in endless conversations

photo by Robert S Donovan

management toolbox

photo by Robert S Donovan

the management toolbox is limited

with management tools designed in a very different era

photo by farmalidanzil

often static in nature

photo by DWRose

and cookie cutter in design

phot

o by

fot

omel

e

many belong to the rationalist school of management thought which works on the underlying assumption that there is one

best future solution

photo by SomeDriftwood

is needed

starting with a new mindset

by maessive

one that accepts that we can’t predict the future and should concentrate on being

flexible enough to successfully engage it, in whatever form it may take

“Giving up the illusion that you can predict the future is a very liberating moment. All you can do is to give yourself the capacity

to respond to the only certainty in life - which is uncertainty. The creation of that

capability is the purpose of strategy”

Lord John Browne, former CEO BP

“Nearly all of the Best Global Brands have embraced the idea of constant change,

evolution and innovation, and are able to continually meet the changing requirements

of this customers.”

Interbrand Best Global Brand 2010

scenarios

photo by drew herron

photo by drew herron

the aim of scenarios is to reveal multiple, equally realistic and foreseeable futures

photo by victor cavazzoni

scenarios allow us to see beyond the headlights

distance into the future

forecast scenarios hope

uncertainty

now

and avoid panic when the future deals us a bad hand

image by luna di rimmel

Roots in WW II military planningphoto by Templar1307

Note: Spoke about the early days of scenario planning and the work of Rand strategist Herman Kahn.

took its name from the hollywood trash bin

scenario planning’s most famous hour

Note: Example of how Shell used scenario planning to deal with the 1973 oil crises.

scenario planning intop 25 management tools

Royal Dutch/Shell & Global Business Network

The French School

The Futures Group

Wilson and Ralston

Lindgren and Bandhold

Reference scenarios

Decision Strategies International

Procedural scenarios

Industry scenarios

Soft creative scenariosap

pro

ac

he

s

image by akbar simonse

crafting the scenario

not at crisis timescenarios should never be developed

at the moment of decision. they require time to be absorbed and

embraced

assemble the team gain executive support and involvement, embrace diversity of opinion within and

outside the organization

learning to learnlearning must be a continuous

process and involve learning to re-perceive or reinterpret a situation

start with a questionscenarios start by isolating the relevant

decision that needs to be made

gather the informationbe flexible as you gather broadly and narrowly, focus on the question but not at the detriment of the unexpected and look for disconfirming

evidence

identify the driversidentify the driving forces that influence

the outcome of events: some will be obvious and others less so.

composing the plotsbuild the scenarios around four questions:

what are the driving forces, what is uncertain, what is inevitable, how about this or that

scenario

the simple 4 choices keep the scenario exercise to four simple and realistic plots that lead to different

choices for the original decision

keep talking & watching developing and maintaining scenarios is an ongoing process of tracking developments, assessment, extrapolation and questioning

image by jim sher

and then the process often implodes

applying scenarios

photo by Simon Bleasdale

trend & opportunity identification

brand positioning

brand portfolios

brand offerings

organizational capacityappl

icab

ility

rapid adaptive strategy

near future budgeting

disposable factories

customizable complexity

shadow portfoliosin p

ract

ice

dynamic pricing

portfolioBrand

just like you have a shadow cabinet theoretically ready to assume power, shadow brand portfolios should be ready to be implement at short notice

luxury goods may have smaller volume packaging to cater for the aspirational market

in economic downturns

automobile makers developing hybrid cars

publishers training designers to design e-books

“In the next few years, successful companies will distinguish themselves by managing

uncertainity better than do their competitors. The very best will create uncertainity for their competitors to struggle with - and there will

be hell to pay by those who fall behind.”

George StalkSenior Partner and Managing Director

The Boston Consulting Group

Note: Spoke about how computer and mobile companies not only have to worry about socio-economic issues but also what game-changing offerings Apple releases.

Ordnung braucht nur der dumme ein genie beherrscht das chaos

Order is needed only by fools, the genius controls the chaos