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The potential for further emission reductions in the EU
Air Science-Policy Forum
April 15, 2013, Dublin, Ireland
Markus Amann
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Measures are available to further reduce
air pollution impacts in the EU
Potential gains from further policy interventions:
• 60-70 mio years of life lost + 2,500 less premature deaths
• Protection of biodiversity in 95,000 km2 of Natura2000 areas against N
deposition
Life shortening PM
Impacts indicators for 2025
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
TSA
P-2
01
3
TSA
P-2
01
2
TSA
P-2
01
3
TSA
P-2
01
2
TSA
P-2
01
3
TSA
P-2
01
2
TSA
P-2
01
3
TSA
P-2
01
2
HealthPM
HealthO3
Eutro-phication
Acidi-fication
Imp
act
ind
icat
or
rela
tive
to
20
05
CLE-2005 MTFR-CLE MTFRPremature deaths O3
Eutrophication Natura2000 Forest Acidification
Remaining problem areas in2025
Outlook: EU emissions to 2050
Further SO2 and NOx
cuts from climate
strategies,
but dedicated air
pollution measures will
be important, especially
for PM, NH3 and VOC
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
to
ns
SO2
Baseline - CLE
Baseline - MTFR
Decarb - CLE
Decarb - MCE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
to
ns
NO
x
Baseline - CLE
Baseline - MTFR
Decarb - CLE
MCE
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
to
ns
PM
2.5
Baseline - CLE
Baseline - MTFR
Decarb - CLE
Decarb - MCE
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
to
ns
NH
3
Baseline - CLE
Baseline - MTFR
Decarb - CLE
Decarb - MCE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050M
illio
n t
on
s V
OC
Baseline - CLE
Baseline - MTFR
Decarb - CLE
Decarb - MCE
SO2
VOC NH3
NOx
PM2.5
Blue: BAU baseline, Red: climate policy + healthy diet scenario
Mitigation potential for SO2
TSAP-2013 baseline for 2025
Further potential in 2025: 33%
Key measures:
• Industry:
– Stricter controls on industrial
process emissions
– FGD/low S fuels for industrial
furnaces
– FGD for refineries and coke
plants
• Domestic sector:
– Low sulfur coal/briquettes for
small stoves
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2005 CLE Furtherpotential
MTFR
Mill
ion
to
ns
SO2
AgricultureWasteNon-roadRoad transportSolventsIndustryDomesticPowerplants
SO2 emissions in 2005 and 2025
Mitigation potential for NOx
TSAP-2013 baseline for 2025
Further potential in 2025: 25%
Key measures:
• Industry:
– SCR for cement plants
– SCR/SNCR for mid-size boilers
– Stricter controls on some
industrial process emissions
• Power sector:
– SCR/SNCR for mid-size boilers
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 CLE Furtherpotential
MTFR
Mill
ion
to
ns
NO
x
AgricultureWasteNon-roadRoad transportSolventsIndustryDomesticPowerplants
NOx emissions in 2005 and 2025
Mitigation potential for PM2.5
TSAP-2013 baseline for 2025
Further potential in 2025: 45%
Key measures:
• Domestic sector:
– Modern biomass stoves with
lower emissions and higher
energy efficiency
• Agriculture:
– (Enforcement of) ban of
agricultural waste burning
• Industry:
– Stricter PM controls on some
industrial processes
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2005 CLE Furtherpotential
MTFR
Mill
ion
to
ns
PM
2.5
AgricultureWasteNon-roadRoad transportSolventsIndustryDomesticPowerplants
PM2.5 emissions in 2005 and 2025
Mitigation potential for NH3
TSAP-2013 baseline for 2025
Further potential in 2025: 30%
Key measures:
• Agriculture:
– Efficient (‘low emission’)
application of urea fertilizer
– Low nitrogen feed
(pigs, dairy cows, poultry)
– Low emission application of
livestock manures;
liquid and solid
– Closed storage of manures
and new low emission housing
(pigs, poultry)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2005 CLE Furtherpotential
MTFR
Mill
ion
to
ns
NH
3
AgricultureWasteNon-roadRoad transportSolventsIndustryDomesticPowerplants
NH3 emissions in 2005 and 2025
Mitigation potential for VOC
TSAP-2013 baseline for 2025
Further potential in 2025: 40%
Key measures:
• Solvents:
– Further substitution
(low-solvent and water-based
products and processes)
• Domestic sector:
– Modern biomass stoves/boilers
(lower emissions & higher
energy efficiency)
• Agriculture:
– (Enforcement of) ban of
agricultural waste burning
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2005 CLE Furtherpotential
MTFR
Mill
ion
to
ns
VO
C
AgricultureWasteNon-roadRoad transportSolventsIndustryDomesticPowerplants
VOC emissions in 2005 and 2025
0
50
100
150
200
250
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
bill
ion
Eu
ro/y
r
Gap closure (% between CLE and MTFR)
Emission control costs
Many of these measures are cost-effective
and yield high (health) benefits
Marginal benefits exceed marginal costs
for at least 75% of the potential
from all measures
Total costs and health benefits of further emission reductions
0
50
100
150
200
250
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
bill
ion
Eu
ro/y
r
Gap closure (% between CLE and MTFR)
Benefits range
Emission control costs
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Mar
gin
al c
ost
/be
nef
its
(bill
ion
Eu
ro/%
gap
clo
sure
)
Gap closure (% between CLE and MTFR)
Marginal benefits (range)/%
Marginal costs/%
Marginal costs and marginal benefits
Cost-effective solutions imply
uneven distribution of emission control costs
In a cost-effective scenario (developed for the TSAP revision):
Additional costs (5.4 bn €/yr) :
– 32% in domestic sector
– 21% in industry
– 20% agriculture
– 14% solvents
– 12% power sector
These shares a different from costs for current legislation:
– 55% road transport,
– 12% power,
– 10% non-road, 9% industry,
– 2% agriculture
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
bill
ion
Eu
ro/y
r
Domestic
Agriculture
Power
Ind. combustion
Ind. processes
Solvents
Additional emission control costs by sector
Conclusions
• A range of measures is available that could yield significant improvements
of air pollution impacts in a cost-effective way, where benefits exceed
costs at a high margin. Many of these measures are already applied in
some countries, but not community-wide .
Changing entry points for future emission reductions:
• Climate policies can contribute to reductions of SO2 and NOx,
especially for sectors that have already tight emission controls.
• Further controls of PM, NH3 and VOC require action through dedicated
air pollution policies, especially for (dispersed) sources in sectors that
have contributed less to emission reductions in the past.