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The Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) program:
Scientific and economic assessment
Markus AmannInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
The CAFE approach2001-2005
• Based on peer-reviewed scientific knowledge• Using best available, quality-controlled real-world data• With close involvement of stakeholders:
Integrated assessment of cost-effective policy measures with the IIASA RAINS model:
1. Project future emissions and air quality resulting from full implementation of current EU legislation
2. Explore scope and costs for further measures
3. Analyze cost-effective policy scenarios
Economic driversassumed for the CAFE baseline scenario, EU-25
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use Passenger kmFreight ton-km Cattle lifestock Sea transport
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use
Land-based emissions CAFE baseline “with climate measures”, EU-25
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use CO2
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2 NOx
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2 NOx VOC
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2 NOx VOC PM2.5
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use CO2SO2 NOx VOCNH3 PM2.5
Scope for further technical emission reductions CAFE baseline “with climate measures”, EU-25
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5
% of 2000 emissions
2000 CAFE baseline 2020, current legislation Maximum technical reductions 2020
Loss in life expectancy attributable to fine particles [months]
Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Calculations for 1997 meteorology
2000 2020 2020 CAFE baseline Maximum technical
Current legislation emission reductions
Vegetation-damaging ozone concentrations
AOT40 [ppm.hours]. Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Calculations for 1997 meteorology
2000 2020 2020 CAFE baseline Maximum technical
Current legislation emission reductions
Excess acid deposition to forests
Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, Calculation for 1997 meteorology
2000 2020 2020 CAFE baseline Maximum technical
Current legislation emission reductions
Excess nitrogen deposition threatening biodiversity
Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads Calculation for 1997 meteorology
2000 2020 2020 CAFE baseline Maximum technical
Current legislation emission reductions
Multi-pollutant/multi-effect analysisfor identifying cost-effective policy scenarios
SO2 NOx VOCNH3PM
Health AcidificationEutrophication Ozone
RAINS computer model
CAFE policy targets for 2020
Optimized emission reductions for EU-25of the CAFE policy scenarios [2000=100%]
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5
% of 2000 emissions
Grey range: CLE to MTFR Case "A" Case "B" Case "C"
Emission control costs of the CAFE policy scenarios
0
10
20
30
40
Case "A" Case "B" Case "C" Max. technical reductions
Billion Euros/year
Road sources SO2 NOx NH3 VOC PM
Distribution of costs[€/person/year]
0
20
40
60
80
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Den
mar
k
Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Irel
and
Italy
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Luxe
mbo
urg
Mal
ta
Net
herla
nds
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
EU
-25
Total Costs (Euro/person/yr) Low ambition Medium ambition
0
20
40
60
80
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Den
mar
k
Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Irel
and
Ital
y
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Luxe
mbo
urg
Mal
ta
Net
herla
nds
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
EU
-25
Total Costs (Euro/person/yr) Low ambition Medium ambition High ambition
*) excluding costs for road sources
EU-wide instruments and measuresconsidered by the Commission
• National emission ceilings
– for PM2.5, SO2, NOx, NH3, VOC
• Air quality limit values for PM2.5
– Focus on population-weighted urban background concentrations
• Further strengthening of emission limit values for vehicles (Euro-5, Euro-6)
• Product standards for small combustion sources
• Structural funds for substitution of coal combustion in households in accession countries
• Etc.
• Additional local measures subject to subsidiarity principle
Conclusions
• Emissions in the EU-25 will continue to decline in the future with progressing implementation of current legislation (except ammonia)
• However, air quality problems will remain. Different problems will persist in different regions of Europe
• There is scope for further emission reductions
• The Commission will propose cost-effective steps for further air quality improvement in Europe. Member States need to accept their shares in cooperative solutions.