Center for Energy and Environment

Technology Forum Steven Nadel, Executive Director

American Council for an Energy-

Efficient Economy

Energy Efficiency:

Present and Future June 2014

American Council for an

Energy-Efficient Economy

• Non-profit research organization

• Founded in 1980

• Now have 50 staff and $8 million/year budget

• Funding comes from foundations,

government agencies, contracts,

conferences & corporate

memberships

U.S. Energy Use in Relation to GDP 1970-2012

Energy Efficiency: America’s Greatest Energy Resource US Energy Resources used in 2011

Electricity Use Declining

11

11.5

12

12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

3300

3400

3500

3600

3700

3800

3900

4000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Bill

ion R

eal $

TW

h

Electricity GDP

Source: ACEEE, 2014, “Why is Electricity

Use No Longer Growing”

Efficiency a Significant Cause Factors affecting Residential & Commercial sales 2007-2012

Source: ACEEE, 2014, “Why is Electricity Use No Longer Growing”

* Statistically

significant

Rela

tive Im

pact

on k

Wh p

er

capita

2013 State Energy Efficiency Scorecard Results

Minnesota’s Scores

Area Score Notes

Utilities 15/20 Tied for 5th; lose 3.5 points on budgets, 1 point for electric

savings, ½ point for lack of electric decoupling

Transportation 2/9 Tied for 24th; lose 2 points each for GHG tailpipe

standards, integration of transportation and land-use

planning and VMT targets

Building energy

codes

3/7 Tied for 43rd; lose 3 points for stringency (does not yet use

2009 codes), 1 point for compliance

Combined heat &

power

1/5 Tied for 27th; lose 1 point for incentives and ½ point each

for interconnection, RPS/EERS treatment, net metering,

emissions & financing

State govt, initiatives 4.5/7 Tied for 11th; lose 1 point each for building energy

disclosure and R&D, ½ point for financial incentives

Appliance stds. 0/2 Have no recent state standards

Electric Savings of Leading States

State

2011 Net

Incremental

Savings

(MWh)

% of 2011

Retail Sales

Preliminary

% of 2012

Retail Sales

Vermont 117,940 2.12% 2.23%

Massachusetts 789,894 1.43% 1.83%

Arizona 1,028,378 1.38% 1.66%

California 3,399,300 1.35% NA

Connecticut 394,266 1.32% 1.09%

Hawaii 130,108 1.31% NA

New York 1,791,302 1.25% NA

Rhode Island 96,009 1.25% 1.56%

Ohio 1,880,629 1.22% NA

Minnesota 818,512 1.21% 1.20%

Maine 120,211 1.05% 1.36%

Iowa 475,964 1.04% NA

Pennsylvania 1,553,739 1.04% NA

Michigan 1,000,437 1.00% 1.12%

Oregon 465,211 0.99% 0.99%

Maryland 397,748 0.58% 1.12%

Levelized costs of new electricity resource options For 2012

13 Source: ACEEE and Lazard Associates

Natural Gas Efficiency, 2020 Northwest Regional

Supply Curve

Source: NW Energy 2009

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

OH

GA

AL

PA

NC

FL

IN

WV

VA

SC

TN

MI

IL

WI

KY

MS

MD

NJ

NV

MO

IA

TX

CO

Announced Coal Retirements (MW) Ripe for Retirement (but not announced) (MW)

TOTAL ANNOUNCED FROM THESE STATES = >35 GW

TOTAL ANNOUNCED AND "RIPE" = > 88 GW

Source: http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/clean_energy/Ripe-for-Retirement-Full-

Report.pdf

Possible Coal Plant Retirements

Source: Union of Concerned Scientists

Potential Energy Savings From Energy Efficiency Minnesota

Source: Hayes, S. et al. 2014. Change Is in the Air: How States Can Harness Energy Efficiency to Strengthen the

Economy and Reduce Pollution. Washington, DC: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.

http://aceee.org/research-report/e1401

Possible “Next Big Things” for Energy Efficiency

• “Intelligent efficiency” – smart buildings, smart

manufacturing

• Improvements in new homes and appliances, leveraging

codes & standards

• Advanced lighting design

• Strategic energy management for large customers

(continuous improvement)

Opportunities for Future Code

Improvements

Advanced Lighting Design

Next Big Things (continued)

• Combined heat and power systems

• High-efficiency plug loads

• Existing building retrofits (often staged)

• Industrial process improvements

• Advanced thermostats (e.g. Nest)

• High efficiency commercial rooftop AC

• Chiller replacements and optimization

Combined Heat & Power

• Higher efficiency than power

plants when have uses for heat :

• Factories

• Large institutions

• Lower natural gas prices make

more attractive

• Interest in critical facilities post-

Sandy

“Other” Loads With Large Savings

Item TWh Saved from Upgrading Current Stock

to the Best

Televisions 62

Distribution transformers 47

PC’s 45

Ceiling fans 24

Computer monitors 18

Walk-in refrigeration 16

Set-top boxes 14

Video game consoles 9

DVD & Blu-ray players 8

Microwaves 8

Fume hoods 7

Computer servers 6

Source: Kwatra, ACEEE, 2013

iMac ME086 24 kWh/yr

LG 42”, 75 kWh/yr

Empire State Building Retrofit –

38% energy savings

On-Bill Financing Five programs account for >90% of the volume

Source: LBL/SEE Action May 2014 report

Next Big Things (continued)

• Providing actionable real-time info on energy use to

consumers

• Improved air and duct sealing

• Advanced water heaters – condensing and heat

pump

• Conservation voltage reduction

• LED lighting

ACEEE Utility of the Future Study

• Prepared several scenarios by region – might there

be a “death spiral”?

• Reviewed more than 50 studies and identified and

assessed19 options

• Make recommendations for the short, medium and

long terms

Electricity Sale Scenarios Midwest Reliability Organization (MRO) West

(MN, IA, NB, SD, ND)

Midwest Reliability Organization West Medium-high-change scenario

Midwest Reliability Organization West High-change scenario

Other Key Findings

• If sales don’t increase, utilities need to look for

other ways to grow profits

• Optional services such as EE, EV charging, CHP and

community-scale PV, using their existing expertise

• EE low-cost resource and valued by customers

• Be careful investing too much in new generation

and T&D

• Some will be needed, but prioritize

Conclusions

• Minnesota is close to the leaders, but needs to do

more

• Utility industry is changing – declining growth,

111(d), growing EE, PV and DG

• Energy efficiency is a critical service to keep power

prices in check and provide services customers

want

• Many potential big EE saving measures that

utilities, manufacturers, service providers and end-

users should pursue

Contact Information

Steven Nadel

snadel@aceee.org

202-507-4000

www.aceee.org