Local conditions and drivers

Andre F van Rooyen L3ICRISAT

LIMPOPO BASIN IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

Land use and livelihoods

• Crop-livestock systems• Main crops: Maize sorghum some legumes… a few cash crops; tobacco and cotton… vegetables

• Livestock: Cattle and goats, some goats – donkeys and horses – Poultry

• Low input systems… with low market access

• Systems are most probably highly unsustainable, with very low resilience… or high level resilience but at a low level of productivity

Southern Africa…

Mzingwane Catchment, Zimbabwe

Mozambique

South Africa

Botswana

Population• Population growth• Demographics

• Age of farmers• Feminization of Agriculture

Populations trends in basin

Women in agriculture

Increasing number of women farmers

Interaction at markets

Women groups

Increasing age of farmers in the region

Economics

Household economics (Zimbabwe)

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Lives

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Remittan

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Veget

ables

Crop

farm

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Casual la

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Man

ufactu

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Fores

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ducts

Formal e

mplo

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Alcohol

brewing

Retail s

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Vendin

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Fish sa

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Gold m

ining

Cross

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der tr

ade

Faith

heali

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Trans

port

Per

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tag

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f fa

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Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3

Sources of on-farm income

Cash from livestock…

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Food Education Humanhealth

Livestock Housing Farming Clothing Ceremony

Pe

rce

nta

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of

farm

ers

Cattle Goats

Future scenarios…Feeding the livestock revolution

Potential economic drivers

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006$0

$100,000,000

$200,000,000

$300,000,000

$400,000,000

$500,000,000

$600,000,000

South Africa Livestock Products: Imports

SADC World-SADC

Global Climate Change

Policies….

The so-what about the “drivers”

• Agents of change • that can be can be positive or negative (direction of change)

• Eg. Climate change, policy, population growth, world economy, Energy demand and biofuel

and

• Conditions or factors which may reinforce or constrain these drivers• These variables may constrain/modify or affect the impact of drivers

• Eg. Education levels, access to information, market access, lack of infrastructure,

and

• Conditions or factors not playing an immediate role but which may, once it reach critical thresholds/levels become majors factors, or if included/considered may play critical roles in the outcome of specific development trajectories.

• Eg. Changing role of women in agriculture, increasing age of farmers, the potential impact of local regional markets which communities (SES) do not have access too.

A bold look at basin development…

Appreciate your attention.

Women in Agriculture• Women play a major role…• Feminization of Agriculture in southern Africa• Increased for on women – but do not exclude men!

Drivers of change and other important variables

Classic drivers Local Factors/Variables Other Factors/Variables

Global Climate Change

Existing variable climate Massive but unexploited potential in local and regional markets (South Africa)

World Economies Variable Policy environments – focus on crop production for food security but livestock offers betters pathways out of poverty

Increasing age of farmers(!) – exodus from rural areas by young educated people.

Population increases; urbanization changes in food requirements/demands – livestock revolution

Market access – both output and input markets; access to and cost of inputs

Increasing role played by women in agriculture and rural economies – feminization of agriculture in southern Africa

The sophistication of markets, consumer demands

National Policies – Agricultural investments – crop-livestock systems

Outline of the presentation• The Biophysical Environment• Land use and livelihoods• System drivers• What are drivers?

• Environmental• Social (& political)• Economical• Science

• Future scenarios

• Some suggestions

• 1. The conditions in the Limpopo that are relevant to change;

• 2 The drivers that affect conditions in the Limpopo and

• 3 Responses [i.e. what you see as responses to drivers and how they happened].