Introduction to Future Scenarios Thinking: Theory and Exercise (CPWF GD workshop, Sept 2011)

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Future Scenario Thinkingan introduction

Charlotte Lau, Simon Cook, and Amanda Harding

2050What is FST?

• Scenario thinking is a disciplined method of imagining possible futures– Elements that cannot be modeled– Includes subjective interpretations– Creates narratives

• Key: hypotheses, not predictions– Designed to capture full range of possibilities– Prevents you from being blindsided

2050Basic FST process

• Maps out dynamics of change

• Allows you to combine trends (“what you know”) with uncertainties and wild cards (“what you don’t know) to create scenarios of possible futures Schoemaker, 1995

2050Past and present usages

• Originally used successfully in the private sector – Shell Oil in 1970s

• Also applications in politics – South African panel post-apartheid

• Nowadays increasingly used in non-profit organizations

• DFID core strategic planning tool, from mid-1990s on

2050Collective learning process

• FST is essentially a study of our collective ignorance and a process of collective learning

• Allows you to think outside your immediate “circle” Scearce, et al. 2004

Global Business Network

2050Application for the CPWF

• Is this helpful?• What do you think?

2050Application for the CPWF

• Scenarios can be used to identify early warning signals, indicators, or thresholds of negative outcomes

• For the CPWF, it can help:– Assess the robustness of our core competencies– Generate better strategic options– Evaluate risk/return profile of options in view of

opportunities

2050The process in brief

• MATERIALS:– Worksheet with guiding questions– Blank worksheet (to fill out)– Rectangular and circular colored paper– Plain white paper (blank)– Only in case you get stuck: example scenarios,

example global drivers


• Step 0: Define the scope. – Timeline: Now to 2050– Focal question: How will regional and global drivers

impact water and food security in your basin by/in 2050?

– POV: CPWF, in order to reduce poverty, improve livelihoods resilience, and boost ecosystem services

• Step 0.5: Sketch out global drivers in the status quo. (your presentations)


• Step 1: Identify major stakeholders at every scale

• Step 2: Identify basic trends, uncertainties, and wild cards– Global drivers can be ongoing or predetermined

elements (“trends”) or they can be difficult-to-characterize uncertainties/wild cards

• Step 3: Identify any quantitative support you have for your “trends”


• Step 4: Characterize rules of interaction.– Thinking about how trends and uncertainties

interact; and how stakeholders might react• Step 5: Draft scenarios.– Combine trends and uncertainties. We will show

how to do this. (For more methods, ask us!)– Title the scenarios and write the narratives.– Check for variability in your scenarios.


• Step 6 & 7: Check for internal inconsistencies.• Step 8: Search for quantitative models– What kinds of quantitative models are needed to

support your scenarios?• Step 9: Identify responses and research needs– What would appropriate responses be for each

scenario?– What is priority research for each basin, or for the

program?

2050Example: NYC housing

• Focal question: How will rent costs and housing demographics look in 2020?

• POV: NGO advocating affordable housing for the poor; anti-gentrification

NYCprojects

NYCgovt

BrooklynBronxQueens

Welfareprograms

All 5 boroughs

Regional/Nationalpolitics

Statelegislature/govt


• Stakeholders: NYC housing authority, NYC government, New Yorkers today and potential (at all SES: lower-income, gentrifiers), landlords, CSOs

• Trends: – Gentrification– City population growth– Increasing cost of living and transport in general– Security concerns (earlier: crimes, now: terrorism)

• Uncertainties:– Will wealthy non-natives continue to move in, willing to pay $$?– Will rent control continue to protect affordable housing?– Will outer boroughs move towards apartment-style housing, over houses?– Will the economic crisis/housing crash continue to affect prices?


• Wildcards:– Series of really awful terrorist attacks that destroys

the economy and prevents people from moving to NY

• Rules of interaction:– NYC legislature cares more about renters than

landlords (likely to keep rent control). All trends interact together to push costs upwards, unless uncertainties mitigate.

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Questions?

If not, we’ll begin!

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“Anyone can create scenarios. But it will be much easier if you are willing to encourage your own imagination, novelty, and even sense of the absurd—as

well as your sense of realism”

20500.5: Characterize status quo

• Past and current drivers• What drivers have historically affected food

and water in these basins, and in the world?– E.g., green revolution, urbanization, changed food

habits, economic growth, overexploitation of natural resources, globalization

• What drivers currently affect food and water in your basin? 10 minutes

20501: Identify major stakeholders

• Individuals, groups, institutions• Who will have interest in these issues?• Who will be affected by them?• ID stakeholders and their current roles,

interests, power positions—and how these have changed over time

5 minutes

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2. THE FUTURE: Identify known trends, uncertainties, and wild cards• Global drivers can be trends or uncertainties.– Rule of thumb: If all team members agree that a

driver is irrefutably going to keep happening, it’s a trend. Otherwise, it’s an uncertainty

• Wild cards are things that are unlikely but would really change everything, e.g. a cure to cancer or HIV vaccine.

• If you end up with long laundry lists, try to cut them down or group them to max 7 for each.30 minutes

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2. THE FUTURE: Identify known trends, uncertainties, and wild cards• Write TRENDS on the RECTANGULAR papers.• Write UNCERTAINTIES (2 for each- one “yes,” the other

“no”) on the CIRCULAR papers. • These are color-coded for the type of driver: – Orange = Demographic / Social– Pink = Technological / Innovation– Green = Environmental / Climate change– Yellow = Economic / Trade– Blue = Political / Legal / Institutional

• Score the degree of anticipated impact (-, 0, +)

30 minutes

20503. Identify quantitative support

• Do you know of any models/statistics (or can you find ones) to help you verify these trends, or answer uncertainties?

• OTHER RESEARCH: Anything else in your periphery that could be a game-changer?

• You may want to use our resources:– http://docs.google.com– Username: globaldriversTWG, Password: simoncook– Left side navigation bar: Article Bank– OR ask Charlotte to sign you into Harvard google scholar15 minutes

20504. Dynamics of interaction

• Which stakeholders might act/react together, and in what sorts of ways?– REMEMBER: If stakeholders in power have control

over a trend they don’t like, they might change it.• Which uncertainties couldn’t co-exist?• Which trends/uncert. build on each other?

30 minutes

20504. Dynamics of interaction

• Checking co-existence of uncertainties– page 3 in your

packets

20505. Draft Scenarios

• Mix and match. – Mix around your cards to see if you can find scenarios

that make sense.• Easiest beginning: put all the + together, and all the –

together, to create best- and worst- case scenarios.• Trends/uncertainties can have diff. importance (can score)• Visually check that you’re getting a good mix of circles,

rectangles, and colors.• Remember to connect these using your identified

interaction dynamics and stakeholders.

– Write out narratives for them. 45 minutes total

2050NYC Housing: Scenarios

Pop growth-3

Gentrification-5

Security concerns

+1

Rent control – YES, -1?

Outer borough aptmts – YES, +4

Econ crisis

affects – NO, -2

4/5 colors, mix of trends (rect) and uncertainties (circles)Total: -8 (realistic middle scenario)

Wealthy in-migrYES, -3


The Bridge and Tunnel AnswerThe economic crisis and security concerns have no real effect on people in-migrating to New York, and in fact only results in the wealthy coming. This pushes up the costs of all non-rent-controlled apartments. (Rent control remains, as Democrats remain in power.)Manhattan becomes fully saturated. As a result, gentrification continues. The Jehovah’s Witnesses sell out their vast holdings in downtown Brooklyn, releasing significant land for apartments. The government pushes out well-located projects e.g. in Queens and lower Manhattan, to further out in Brooklyn or Staten Island (free ferry service). Poor communities move out to pockets of New Jersey and Connecticut, and increasingly live in over-stuffed apartment buildings in Staten Island, the Bronx, and distant Brooklyn. In response to housing demand, Queens turns increasingly to apartment-style housing over individual houses. The MTA raises transport costs to extend the subway to more neighborhoods in Queens, making this a viable option for commuters. This reduces the housing crunch, preventing rents from rising too much.

TitleAnswering uncertainties

DemographicsEconomics

Politics / Stakeholder-poltnDemographics

Landlord- stakeholder

NGO mission – impact on poor

Economics/ Innovation

MTA –stakeholder

Impact on other NYers


Pop growth-1

Gentrification-3

Security concerns

+5

Rent control –

YES, ?

Outer borough aptmts – YES, +2

Econ crisis

affects – YES, +4

4/5 colors, mix of trends (rect) and uncertainties (circles)Total: +9 (maybe best-case scenario)

Wealthy in-migrNO, +3

This is sort of the wild card scenario, where security concerns and the economic crisis combine to lower population pressures, preventing a housing crunch and reducing pressures for gentridication.

20505. Draft scenarios, part 2

• Make sure that you have cogent narratives for each scenario. If you don’t, spend time now to title and write out each one.

• Check for variability: are your scenarios looking at the full range of possible futures? (plot on graph)

• Consider the implications of the wild cards, if you haven’t already.

45 minutes total

20505. Draft scenarios, part 3

• Checking for variability in scenarios– Page 4 in

your packets

20506-7. Check for internal inconsistencies.

• Could these all happen by 2050? (consistent within time frame)

• Do they combine outcomes of uncertainties that go together?

• Could high-powered stakeholders change things they don’t like?

45 minutes total

20508. Search for quantitative models.

• What kind of quantitative models do you need that could support analysis of your scenarios?

• Do you know of any that exist? (you don’t have to know how they function, or what the results would be)

2 minutes

20509. ID responses & research needs

• “Scoring exercise” worksheet – Think of it as your homework!

not now.

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Thank you.

Now on to presentations and discussion!

20505.Draft scenarios.

• Method 1: Crossing uncertainties. – Try crossing pairs of

uncertainties (trial and error).– Sometimes you can group

more specific uncertainties into one larger one.

– Once you get a pair that sticks, layer on the trends and rules of interaction.

GROWING POPULATIONInflux of rich ppl + natural growth

Apts inouter boroughs

Y

Y

N

N

More people, but more housing. Manhattan is full (rent control). Elsewhere, rents stay the same or increase only slightly. Gentrification slows, but projects get pushed out.

Fewer people come, and more people leave because of the economic crisis and rising costs of living in NYC. Apartments are built in Queens/Brooklyn, expanding housing options. Rent decreases.

The status quo continues. Rents and gentrification increase steadily. Perhaps another city (LA? Chicago?) has become more desirable for jobs.

There is a huge housing crunch/crisis in NY. Poor people move out to Staten Island or to NJ. New York becomes really expensive. Protests.