Jec biofuels programme

JEC Biofuels Programme

Overview of Results

A joint study by JRC / EUCAR / CONCAWE

06 July 2010

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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement

Presentation Outline

SlidesNote 3

1. Executive Summary 4 – 52. JEC Biofuels Programme 6 – 83. Background to the Study 9 – 114. “Fleet & Fuels” Model 12 – 185. Non-road Transport Sectors 19 – 206. Reference Case 21 – 257. RED Implementation Scenarios 26 – 338. Sensitivity Analysis 34 – 389. Biofuel Supply Outlook 39 – 46 10. Summary 47 – 4811. JEC Biofuels Programme: Contributors 4912. Appendix 50 – 89

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NoteThe JEC Biofuels Program is a technical exercise intended to assess possible biofuelimplementation scenarios for achieving EU renewable energy targets in the transport sector by 2020. These scenarios have been assessed by modelling and other analyses.

The JEC “Fleet & Fuels” (F&F) Model is a simulation tool for scenario assessment

What the model does:The model is a scenario assessment tool that enables the user to simulate the possible development of the European vehicle fleet as well as the total fuel and biofuel demand to 2020. The model is based on a historically reasonable 2010 reference case and assumes trends in the fleet, fuel and market development over the coming decade. It further allows the evaluation of important RED and FQD targets as well as the sensitivity of the results to vehicle fleet, fuels, and biofuels assumptions.

What the model does not do:Due to the assumptions and simplifications selected for this study, the model is not a quantitative tool for predicting the future. No model can truly do this.The model does not lead to a single globally optimized solution but does allow a side-by-side comparison of various scenarios of fleet and fuel development.The model does not assess the cost implications associated with the fleet & fuel scenarios.

Disclaimer

This exercise is not intended to commit the JEC partners to deliver any particular scenario or conclusion included in this study.

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1. Executive Summary: Key Conclusions

The JEC RED scenario analysis is characterized by its objectives:Focus is on the technical feasibility of the 10% energy RED*) target with an associated calculation of FQD**) Article 7a GHG savingsRealistic assumptions made regarding vehicles, fuels and renewablesStudy does not assess viability, costs, or logistics of analyzedscenariosStudy also does not assess commercial readiness of analyzed scenarios“Integrated Approach”, i.e. all transport modes and actors are considered although with a focus on road transport

Overall the RED implementation scenarios should be viewed in light of:RED-% from each scenario depends on the underlying assumptions and should be considered as “theoretically achievable”Scenario results have been further studied by sensitivity analyses

*) RED: EU Renewable Energy Directive (Dir 2009/28/EC)**) FQD: EU Fuel Quality Directive (Dir 2009/30/EC)

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1. Executive Summary: Key Conclusions

Scenarios exist that achieve the RED 10% energy target for renewable energy in the transport sector with the given assumptionsNone of these scenarios achieves the minimum 6% GHG target (FQD Art. 7a) with the given assumptions (ILUC* not considered)

Realization of the scenarios depend on :Biofuel supply, especially the availability of sustainable biofuels to Europe CEN specifications, potential vehicle compatibility and pace of introductionCompatibility of the supply and distribution system for all fuel products Non-road contributions to RED-%, especially HVO/BTL use by the aviation sectorEach scenario would need policy measures (including incentives) to enable a smooth transition from today to the “theoretically achievable” projections

Much more technical work is needed to ensure feasibility of these scenarios and compatibility with upcoming Euro 6 emissions limits

Compatibility of vehicles with higher biofuel blends still to be proven and will require time, testing and investmentMulti-stakeholder coordination and timely decisions will be essentialSeamless transition is important to ensure continued customer confidence

ILUC*: Indirect Land Use Change

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The JEC research collaboration was initiated in 2000 by

JRC: Joint Research Centre of the European CommissionEUCAR: European Council for Automotive R&DCONCAWE: Research Association of the European Oil Refining Industry

2. JEC Biofuels Programme: A Short History

Collaborative Projects2000-2007: Projects Completed

Well-to-Wheels (WTW) Study Versions 1, 2b, and 2c( http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/WTW )WTW Study Version 3: enhancing pathways and vehicles( http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/WTW )Impact of ethanol on vehicle evaporative emissions (SAE 2007-01-1928)Impact of ethanol in petrol on fuel consumption and emissions (report in preparation)

2008-2011: Projects In-progress2009-11: Major revision of WTW Study (Version 4)2008-10: JEC Biofuels Programme for a 2020 time horizon

http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/WTW

http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/WTW

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2. JEC Biofuels Programme: Objectives

Objectives of the JEC Biofuels Programme:

Clarify the opportunities and barriers to achieve 10% renewable energy (on an energy basis) in the transport sector by 2020

Focus on road transport with the development of an EU27+2 “Fleet & Fuels”Model as the main supporting tool

Focus on conventional and alternative fuels and biofuel blends while accounting for growth in alternative powertrains over decade

Develop biofuel implementation scenarios in which the introduction of biofuel blends to meet the 2020 target is seamless to consumers and results in no detrimental impact on vehicle performance and emissions

Three-year JEC Program initiated in February, 2008 (2008-2010)

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Develop a consensus demand and supply picture of biofuel types and availability needed to meet the 2020 Renewable Energy Directive target

Review and analyze projections and other data for 2008-2020Biodiesel, ethanol, and others, including conventional and advanced productsConsider domestic production and importsInclude most recent updates on WTW energy and GHG implications

Analyze possible biofuel implementation scenarios within the 2010-2020 regulatory framework, including pros and cons

2. JEC Biofuels Programme: Approach

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Vehicles:More advanced engines & aftertreatment, diversification in engines and fleet Fuel consumption of LD vehicles falling, HD diesel demand slightly increasingIncreasing pressure on CO2 emissions with associated higher costCustomer preferences potentially in conflict with mobility policies

Refineries:Increasing diesel/gasoline demand ratioHigher CO2 emissions due to diesel demand and product specificationsIncreasing pressure on CO2 emissions with associated higher cost

Biofuels and other Renewables:Renewables in transport fuels mandated to 10% (energy basis) by 2020Conventional biofuels widely available but with sustainability concernsSlower than expected pace of development for advanced biofuelsPace/priorities differ across Member States, potentially leading to fuel diversityCEN specifications are struggling to keep pace with legislative mandates

3. Background: The Coming Decade for European Road Transport

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Renewable Energy Directive (RED) Requires Member States to meet 10% renewable energy share in the transport sector by 2020Requires sustainable cultivation and production of Biofuels as well as minimum greenhouse gas (GHG) savings per energy unit

Fuels Quality Directive (FQD) Requires fuel suppliers to achieve at least 6% GHG saving from fuels supplied in 2020 with indicative targetsSpecifies an E10 main grade with E5 ‘protection grade’ for older vehicles

Vehicle Regulated EmissionsLight-duty (LD) passenger cars: Euro 5/5b to 2014, Euro 6 from 2015 onwardsHeavy-duty (HD) vehicles: Euro V to 2013; Euro VI from 2014 onwards

Vehicle CO2 EmissionsLD passenger cars: new vehicle fleet average 130g/km by 2015 and review of 2020 targetsLight Commercial Vehicle (LCV) fleet: Commission proposal of new fleet average of 175g/km by January 1st 2016, review of 2020 targets

3. Background: EU Regulatory Environment

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3. Background: Current Projections of Transport Demand EU27+2 Transport Energy Demand: [Mtoe]

2008 EuroStat

2020 JEC F&F Reference Scenario

2020 DG TREN (1)

On-Road 303 281 350

Diesel 188 186

Light Duty 69

Heavy Duty incl. Vans 117

Gasoline 100 66

Biofuels 10 21.5

Other: CNG, LPG, electricity 5 7.8

Rail (Diesel & Electricity) 9.5 10

Aviation 54 73

Inland navigation 6.5 6

Other off-road (Diesel) 14 20 *)

Total 387 390 **) 419

Other studies have been used to base case JEC projections and provide input on non-road energy demand (see Appendix 12.7)

DG TREN: data for non-road transport sectors are used (**)TREMOVE: historical data and methodology, used as basis for fleet development in ‘Fleet & Fuels’ modeliTREN2030: implementation of the economic recession Wood Mackenzie: biofuel supply projections and other off-road diesel demand (*)

“Apples to apples” comparisons for the energy demand projections towards 2020 were not always straightforward amongst the studies 1)

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4. ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Model Overview

A spreadsheet-based model has been developed to simulate the EU27+2 vehicle fleet development and the demand for fossil fuels and biofuels

The model can be used to simulate different combinations of vehicles, fuels, and biofuels to assess different biofuel implementation scenarios

Total fuel demand and diesel/gasoline balance Total biofuels demand, including ethanol and biodiesel, HVO, etcTotal renewable energy demand, including electricity, biogas, etcRenewable energy demand for road transport to be used for RED calculationsGHG emissions reduction according to FQD Article 7a

Parameters relevant to fuel demand included (for example):Passenger car, van, bus and coach and heavy-duty truck demandVehicle efficiency and improvement in efficiency over timePercentage diesel in new car salesIntroduction of alternative vehicles (FFV, LPGV, CNGV, electric vehicle, etc.)Vehicle model year (vintage) assumed compatible with fuel grade

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4. ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Model Overview

TREMOVE data and other sources used to provide historical input on vehicle fleetFleet compositionFleet fuel economyActivity (km driven)Per vintageSeparate diesel and gasoline vehicles

Forward-looking input for the development of the fleet to 2020New sales, total population, and total activity (km driven)% diesel of new car salesVehicle scrappage rate assumed to follow a typical S-curveAlternative vehicle fleets (e.g. CNGV, FFV, EV)Fuel economy of new cars is based on NEDC

‘Real world’ factor included to estimate total fuel demand

Impact of the 2008-2009 economic recession factored in: Model incorporates latest HD sales data (ACEA) and iTREN methodology

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4. ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Vehicle and Fuel Options

Seven LD passenger car types (and fuel type options)Gasoline, Diesel, Flex-Fuel Vehicle (FFV)Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), Liquefied Propane Gas (LPG)Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV), Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)

Three Van classes (and fuel type options)Gasoline (Gasoline, CNG, LPG, xEV) Small Diesel <2.5 tonnes (Diesel, CNG, LPG, xEV)Large Diesel >2.5 tonnes (Diesel, CNG, LPG, xEV)

Five Heavy-duty vehicle classes (and fuel type options)3.5 to 7.5 tonnes (Diesel, CNG)7.5 to 16 tonnes (Diesel, CNG)16 to 32 tonnes (Diesel, CNG, E95, DME)> 32 tonnes (Diesel)Buses and coaches (Diesel, CNG, E95)

xEV: represents the various electrified vehicles as BEV, PHEV, FCEV

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4. ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Vehicle and Fuel OptionsAdjustable parameters that can be changed individually for each vehicle type

Sales and stock annual growth rateVehicle activity: annual km driven (LD, LCV), annual t-km (HD)Vehicle fuel efficiency Alternative vehicle 2020 sales shareAlternative vehicle sales start year% replacement of gasoline or diesel cars by alternative vehicle% use of alternative fuel in alternative fuel vehicles (e.g. E85 take-up rate for FFV)

Fuels implementationOptimistic assumption for biofuel blending at max allowed specification (e.g., 10% v/vethanol minus 0.1% v/v blending tolerance) Up to 3 different gasoline grades: ‘protection grade’, main grade, and E85Up to 2 different diesel grades: ‘protection grade’ and main grade

For the main diesel grade, market uptake by HD, LCV, LD vehicle and vehicle vintage compatibility can be independently set

Vehicle vintage compatible with each fuel gradeHVO or BTL are included in diesel pool assuming full backward compatibilityAdvanced Ethanol (lignocellulose based) is replacing/added to gasolineOther Oxygenates (e.g. ETBE): not specifically modeled but would be allowed up to the maximum oxygen specification

Renewable Energy Directive specifics are implemented including “extra credits” for advanced biofuels and renewable electricity

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4. ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Example Model Outputs

Vehicle fleet development for the

Reference Scenario (1)

LD new car sales showing the growth of alternative vehicles

LD vehicle fleet showing the impact of new car sales on the overall fleetNote growth in the LD diesel fraction over the decade

Car: Share of powertrain types in new sales

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020

BEVPHEVFFVLPGCNGGasolineDiesel

Car: Share of powertrain types in total stock

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020

BEVPHEVFFVLPGCNGGasolineDiesel

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4. ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Example Model Outputs

Road transport fuel demands

Reference Scenario (1) including the impact of the economic recession

Reference Scenario excludingthe impact of the economic recession

Energy demand by fuel type in road transport sector

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2010 2015 2020

Roa

d fu

el d

eman

d [M

toe]

Electricity

Biofuel

LPG to HD

LPG to LD

CNG to HD

CNG to LD

Gasoline to LD

Diesel to HD

Diesel to LD


50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Roa

d fu

el d

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d [M

toe]

02005 2010 2015 2020

Electricity

Biofuel

LPG to HD

LPG to LD

CNG to HD

CNG to LD

Gasoline to LD

Diesel to HD

Diesel to LD

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Calculation of the overall RED-% of renewable energy in transport (Art. 3(4) of the RED):

All types of energy from renewable sources consumed in all forms of transport1)

RED-% = Petrol, diesel, biofuels consumed in road and rail transport, and electricity (in transport) but excluding off-road 2)

4. ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Renewable Energy Calculations

Focus of the JEC Biofuel Programme: Model renewable energy in road transport. Use RED methodology to calculate ROAD-% contributions. These ROAD-% must be combined with assumptions for other transport sectors to calculate the RED-%.

1) Renewable energy in Road, Rail, Aviation, Inland Navigation and Pipeline Transport2a) Off-road means mobile machinery (forestry, agriculture, and construction) ~20Mtoe2b) CNG & LPG in road transport are not included, BUT: Biogas ( = biofuel) is includedApplication of factors:

“Advanced Biofuels” count 2 times in numerator (support)- Definition: biofuel from waste, residue and non-food cellulosic material, Article 21(2)

“Green Electricity“ for road transport counts 2.5 times in numerator & denominator (efficiency factor)- Definition: electricity from renewable sources, Article 3(4)

All types of energy from renewable sources consumed in road transportROAD-% =

Petrol, diesel, biofuels consumed in road and rail transport and electricity (in transport) but excluding off-road 2)

Calculation of the contribution of road transport to the RED 10% target:

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5. Non-road Transport Sectors: Outlook

AviationProjections range from 562) - 731) Mtoe consumption by 2020Jet fuel specification likely to allow only HVO or BTL in this decadeHVO/BTL or ETS certificates are options to offset GHG emissionsAviation fuel consumption excluded from FQD but included in RED

Rail~10 Mtoe consumption by 2020 1) 2)

Fuel by 2020: ~70% electricity, ~30% Diesel (DG TREN1) )Rail Diesel: likely shifts to road diesel quality fuel by 2020Diesel will likely contain FAME, HVO, BTL, the same as road diesel (i.e. B7 = reference blend)

Inland navigation~6 Mtoe consumption by 2020 1) 2)

Likely shifts to road diesel quality fuel by 2020Diesel will likely contain FAME, HVO, BTL, the same as road diesel (i.e. B7 = reference blend)

Other off-road diesel~20 Mtoe consumption by 2020 (JEC estimate)Diesel will likely contain FAME, HVO, BTL, the same as road diesel (i.e. B7 = reference blend)Other off-road fuel consumption excluded from RED but included in FQD

1) DG TREN: "European Energy and transport trends to 2030, Update 2007“2) iTREN 2030, 2009

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Fuel demand non-road sectors (Mtoe)Rail fuel "fossil" Electricity 4,6Renewable Electricity 2,5Fossil Diesel 2,8FAME 0,2Sum rail 10,0

Aviation fuel Gasoline 0,15Kerosene 72,9Sum aviation 73,0

Inland navigation fuel Fossil Diesel 5,6FAME 0,4Sum inl. nav. 6,0

Other off-road fuel Fossil Diesel 18,7FAME 1,3Sum other off-road 20,0

RED Contributions non-road (%)Rail 0,9%Water 0,1%Aviation 0,0%Other off-road 0,0%Sum RED-% non-road 1,0%

5. Non-road Transport Sectors: 2020 OutlookRED denominator 2020:

Road transport energy demand: 281 Mtoe, RED: 275 MtoeRail transport energy demand: 10 Mtoe, RED: 10 MtoeInland navigation energy demand: 6 Mtoe, RED: 6 MtoeSum denominator RED methodology: 291 Mtoe*

Rail 2020: ~70% of rail fuel demand by electricity: 7 Mtoe

Assuming 35% RES: 2.45 Mtoe: ~0.85% RED*~30% of rail fuel demand by diesel: 3 Mtoe

Assuming B7: 0.2 Mtoe: ~0.07% RED*

Inland navigation 2020:6 Mtoe diesel, B7 in total sector 0.4 Mtoe: ~0.1% RED*

Aviation 2020: second largest energy share, ~73 MtoeAssumption: no contribution

Other off-road 2020: 20 Mtoe, assumption: B7 in total sector: 1.3 MtoeNo RED-contribution as other off-road fuel consumption excluded from RED *: applied in RED calculations for all scenarios

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6. Reference Case: Scenario 1 - Fleet ParametersPassenger cars

New car average CO2 target in 2020: 95g/km (used for calculation purpose, figure is proposal for 2020 but subject to review) Diesel / gasoline sales share 2020: 50% / 50%Sales in 2020: 20 mil/a; Fleet in 2020: 270 milAlternative fuel vehicles enter the market Financial crisis impacts miles travelled, however fleet mileage increases to 2020

VansNew van average CO2 target in 2020: 175g/km (used for calculation purpose,legislation under negotiation)Sales in 2020: 1.5 mil/a; Fleet in 2020: 28 milAlternative fuel vehicles enter the marketFinancial crisis impacts miles travelled, however fleet mileage increases to 2020

HD trucksNew truck average YoY efficiency improvement: ~1.5%Sales in 2020: 0.8 mil/a; Fleet in 2010: 15 milFinancial crisis impacts tkm and sales, but dynamic growth to 2020Alternative fuel vehicles enter the market in specific HD classes (and MS markets)

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6. Reference Case: Scenario 1 - Alternative Fleet Parameters

1: Cars in 2020 from TREMOVE baseline: 270 million in vehicle fleet; 20 million in new car sales

Alternative Fuel Passenger Cars In 2020 New Sales In 2020 Vehicle Fleet1

Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFV) 1% 0.5%

Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles (CNGV) 4%0.8 Million

2%~5 Million

Liquefied Propane Gas Vehicles (LPGV) 2%0.4 Million

2%~5 Million

Electric VehiclesBattery Electric (BEV) & Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV)

3%0.6 Million

1%2.7 Million

Alternative Fuel Vans In 2020 New Sales In 2020 Vehicle Fleet1

Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles (CNGV) 4% 1.7%

Liquefied Propane Gas Vehicles (LPGV) 1% 0.4%

Flex Fuel Vehicles (FFV) 1% 0.3%

Electric VehiclesBattery Electric (BEV) & Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV)

2%24 Thousand

0.4%90 Thousand

In 2020 New Sales

Alternative Fuel Heavy Duty Vehicles 3.5t to 7.5t 7.5t to 16t 16t to 32t Bus-Coach

Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles (CNGV) 2% 1% 1% 5%

Di-Methyl Ether Vehicles (DMEV) == == 0.5% ==

95% Ethanol (E95) Vehicles == == 1% 2%

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6. Reference Case: Scenario 1 – Fuel Parameters

Biofuel gradesRamping up to E5 by 2011

• No vehicle compatibility restriction (protection grade)

New E10 (main) grade from 2011• Vehicle compatibility with E10 from 2005+

model yearRamping up to B7 by 2010

• No vehicle compatibility restrictionAssumes 1 Mtoe FAME/HVO coming from waste oils

• RED-factor of two, source: DG ENER• High quality of FAME required

Additional biofuelsRamping up of HVO, BTL, Adv. Ethanol

Biomass-to-Liquids(BTL)

Hydrogenated Vegetable Oils (HVO)

Advanced Ethanol

Start year 2012 2009 2012

Production simulation Linear ramp to 2020+ 1.6 Mtoe step to 2012

+ 1.4 Mtoe linear ramp from 2012 to 2020

Linear ramp to 2020

Availability in 2020 [Mtoe] 0.25 3.0 0.64

Biofuel blends in EU market

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%

2005 2010 2015 2020

%vol

Gasoline Grade 1 (E5)Gasoline Grade 2 (E10)Diesel Grade 1 (B7)Diesel Grade 2

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6. Reference Case: Scenario 1 - Results

Results comparing 2010 and 2020:Fossil demand changes:

Gasoline demand decreases by 24%Diesel demand increases by 6%Diesel demand increases 13% for LD and 3% for HDDiesel/gasoline ratio increases from 2.0 to 2.8

Large biofuel volumes will be needed, increasing demand for CNG & CBGRED: 9.7% with 1.0% contribution from non-road sectorsFQD: -4.4% GHG emissions savings reached


0

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2005 2010 2015 2020

Roa

d fu

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Electricity

Biofuel

LPG

CNG

Diesel to HD

Diesel to LD

Gasoline

Road fuel (Mtoe) 2005 2010 2020Fossil Gasoline to car 118 87 66Fossil Diesel to car 58 61 69Fossil Diesel to HD 123 114 117Sum fossil Diesel 181 175 186Diesel to Gasoline ratio (road only) 1,5 2,0 2,8CNG 0,42 0,85 3,26CBG 0,82LPG 4,17 3,32 3,24FAME 1,50 11,90 12,80HVO 0,00 1,00 3,00BTL 0,00 0,00 0,25DME 0,00 0,00 0,09Total Ethanol 0,72 2,47 5,32EtOH conv. 0,72 2,47 4,68EtOH Adv. 0,00 0,00 0,64"Fossil" Electricity 0,00 0,00 0,28Renewable Electricity 0,15Sum road fuel demand 306 281 281

RED ContributionsNon-road 1,0%Road 8,6%Sum RED-% 9,7%

FQD GHG saving -4,4%

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6. Reference Case: Scenario 1 - Results

Alternative fuel demand results:FAME dominates biofuel marketFAME demand increasing to 2010 driven by B7 specificationEthanol demand increasing to 2010 driven by E5 specificationEthanol demand increasing beyond 2010 driven by E10 introductionHVO and BTL demand follow availability assumptions (backward compatible - not grade dependent)CNG/CBG demand driven by introduction of CNGV mainly in LD but also in HD

FAME / Ethanol demand by 2020, RED developmentFAME demand in all transport sectors will be ~15 Mtoe/a, increasing from 1.5 Mtoe (2005), 7.9 Mtoe (2008)Ethanol demand will be ~5 Mtoe, increasing from 0.7 Mtoe (2005), 1.8 Mtoe (2008)

RED renewable content: 9.7% with 1.0% contribution from non-road sectors

Alternative fuel demand in all transport sectors

0

4

8

12

16

20

2005 2010 2015 2020

Mto

e/a

CNG

LPG

FAME

HVO

BTL

EtOH conv.

EtOH adv.

Electricity0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 B7, E10

Mto

e/a

0,0%

2,5%

5,0%

7,5%

10,0%

12,5%

15,0%

% R

ED

FAME Total EthanolRED: roadRED: all sectors

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7. RED Implementation Scenarios: Biofuel ScenariosScenario 1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Gasoline Grade 1Gasoline Grade 2Gasoline Grade 3Diesel Grade 1Diesel Grade 2

Scenario 2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Gasoline Grade 1Gasoline Grade 2Gasoline Grade 3Diesel Grade 1Diesel Grade 2




B10 (all)

B10 (all)

B15 (HD)B7

E10 E20

E5

E10 E20

E5E10

E10

B7

B7

E5 E10

B7

E5

B7

E10

E5 E10


B7

E5 E10E10 E20

B10 (HD)

Scenario 1: Reference Case

Scenarios 2 - 4:High Biofuel Grades all vehicles

Scenarios 5 - 6: High Biodiesel Grades HD only

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E20

E5E10

E5 E10

E85B7

B7B10 (HD)

E10E85

E85

B7

E5E10

7. RED Implementation Scenarios: Biofuel Scenarios

Scenarios 7 - 9: Additional Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFV)

The FFV scenarios feature a sales share of 4.5%, which results in a 2.5% FFV-stock (6.5 mil) in 2020.

Scenario 7:The FFV fleet requires a comparable Ethanol supply as in scenario 2 (B7, E20) and leads to the same RED-% as in scenario 2.

Scenario 8:E20 and FFVs increase the Ethanol demand and the RED-%.

Scenario 9:The FFV fleet requires a comparable Ethanol supply as in scenario 2 & 7.

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7. RED Implementation Scenarios: Grades & vintage years

Grade E5 E10 E20 B7 B10 B15Year of grade introduction now-2011 2011 2017 now-2011 2017 2017

Cars & Vans compatible from All 2005 2017 All 2017 None

HD vehicles compatible from All 2017 2017

Grade E5 E10 E20 B7 B10 B15Year of introduction 2015 2015 2015

Cars & Vans compatible from 2015 2015 None

HD vehicles compatible from 2015 & All2015 & All

Grades in Scenarios:

Sensitivity cases:

All scenarios: actual biofuels content is 0.1%v/v less than the maximum specification limit

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FAME demand: 14.6 to 17.2 Mtoe (compared to 5.7 Mtoe in 2007 as per “EurObserv’ER Biofuels Barometer”)Ethanol demand: 5.3 to 9.0 Mtoe (compared to 1.2 Mtoe in 2007 as per “EurObserv’ER Biofuels Barometer”)

ROAD-% contribution: 8.6% to 9.8% RED-% (all sectors according to Directive): 9.7% to 10.9%

7. RED Implementation Scenarios: Scenario Summary

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

E10, B7 E20, B7 E10, B10 E20, B10 E10, B7, B15H E20, B7, B10H E10, E85, B7 E20, E85, B7 E10, E85, B7, B10H

EU27

+2 T

rans

port

FAM

E an

d Et

hano

l dem

and

(Mto

e/a)

0,0%

2,5%

5,0%

7,5%

10,0%

12,5%

15,0%

RED

-%

FAME

Total Ethanol

RED: Road

RED: all sectors

For further details of these scenarios refer to section 12.3

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7. RED Implementation Scenarios: Scenario Summary

Scenario1

( Ref ) 2 3 4 5 6 78 9

Blends in 2020

E5, E10,

B7

E10, E20,

B7

E5, E10,

B7, B10

E10, E20,

B7, B10

E5, E10, B7,

B15 (HD)

E10, E20, B7,

B10 (HD)

E5, E10, E85,B7

E10, E20,E85,B7

E5, E10, E85,B7,

B10 (HD)

1st Gen Biofuels 6.4% 7.0% 7.0% 7.6% 7.2% 7.3% 6.4% 7.0% 6.7%

HVO, BTL, Adv. Ethanol 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%RED

Contri-bution by Alt. vehicles

LD: CNGV, EV, FFV

HD: CNGV, E95V, DMEV

0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

RED: Road contribution *) 8.6% 9.2% 9.2% 9.8% 9.5% 9.5% 9.2% 9.8% 9.6%

RED-% calculations using energy consumptions in 2020 by rail and inland water transport as discussed in Section 5. Calculation methodology described on page 20.

RED

contributions

Road 8.6% 9.2% 9.2% 9.8% 9.5% 9.5% 9.2% 9.8% 9.6%

Rail 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%

Water 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Aviation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Other off-road 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

RED-% *) 9.7% 10.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.5% 10.6% 10.3% 10.9% 10.6%

*) might show rounding effects

06 July 2010

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Impact of Renewable Fuels on Fuel Quality Directive Article 7a (2009/30/EC):GHG savings includes fuels used in on-road vehicles, non-road mobile machinery (including rail and inland marine), agricultural and forestry tractors and recreational craft

GHG savings assumptions for biofuels and alternative fuels (vs. 2010 fossil fuel baseline):

2010 fossil fuel baseline emissions per unit energy = 86.7g CO2/MJ 1)

GHG savings do not assume potential improvements in biofuel production higher than 60% GHG reduction♦ 50% GHG reduction for existing biofuel plants up to 1/1/2017

♦ 60% GHG reduction for new biofuel plants from 1/1/2017

Reductions apply uniformly to all ethanol, FAME, HVO, BTL, DME, road electricity, and biogas component in CNG

CNG is assumed to contain 20% biogas in 2020

Road electricity receives a 2.5 times credit; Rail electricity is excluded

7. RED Implementation Scenarios: FQD Article 7a

1) Source: JEC WTW Version 2c fossil fuel default values and 2010 fossil fuel demand

06 July 2010

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7. RED Implementation Scenarios: RED vs. FQD

Scenario 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Gasoline 1 E5 E10 E5 E10 E5 E10 E5 E10 E5Gasoline 2 E10 E20 E10 E20 E10 E20 E10 E20 E10Gasoline 3 E85 E85 E85

Diesel 1 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7

BiofuelBlendsIn 2020

Diesel 2 B10(ALL)

B10(ALL)

B15 (HD)

B10 (HD)

B10 (HD)

ROAD-% Road only 8.6% 9.2% 9.2% 9.8% 9.5% 9.5% 9.2% 9.8% 9.6%

RED-% All modes 9.7% 10.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.5% 10.6% 10.3% 10.9% 10.6%

GHG SavingsFQD Art 7a -4.4% -4.7% -4.7% -5.1% -4.9% -4.9% -4.7% -5.0% -4.9%

Contribution of renewable fuels is sufficient to achieve the RED target but not enough to meet the FQD Article 7a target for the scenarios evaluated in this study

To achieve the 6% GHG saving target (FQD Art.7a), average GHG savings for allbiofuels assumed in these scenarios would need to be in the range of 63 - 73%

06 July 2010

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7. RED Implementation Scenarios: Pros and ConsScenario 1

(Reference)2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Petrol 1 E5 E10 E5 E10 E5 E10 E5 E10 E5Petrol 2 E10 E20 E10 E20 E10 E20 E10 E20 E10

E85 E85 E85 E85Diesel 1 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7

Blendsin 2020

Diesel 2 B10 (ALL) B10 (ALL) B15 (HD) B10 (HD) B10 (HD)10% RED Target Possible Possible Possible Possible Possible Possible Possible Possible

Vehicle compatibility

Compatiblewith existing

fleet

Optimisation to E20

possible

Optimisation to E20

possible

B15 compatibilitywith current

HD fleet


HD fleet

Compatiblewith existing

fleet

Optimisation to E20

possible


HD fleetFuel

grades and infrastructure

Existing logistics

One diesel grade

One diesel grade

One diesel grade

Pros

Others B10 standard in preparation

B10 standard in preparation

FFV is known technology



6% CO2 target No No No No No No No No

Petrol Vehicle Compatibility

DedicatedE20 vehicle



Customer acceptance of

FFV?


FFV ?


FFV?

Diesel Vehicle Compatibility

B10 compatibility

withLD fleet & new

HD fleet

B10 compatibility

withLD fleet & new

HD fleet

B15 compatibility

withnew HD fleet

B10 compatibility

withnew HD fleet

B10 compatibility

withnew HD fleet

E85 refuelling infrastructure

E85 refuelling infrastructure

E85 refuelling infrastructureFuel

grades and infrastructure

Cons

Two diesel grades

Two diesel grades

Two diesel grades

Two diesel grades

Two diesel grades

Sustainable supply?

Sustainable supply?

Sustainable supply?

Sustainable supply?

Sustainable supply?

Sustainable supply?

Sustainable supply?

Sustainable supply?

CEN standard for E20


CEN standard for B15


CEN standard for E20Others

Potential air quality and human health concerns associated with higher biofuel grades

06 July 2010

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8. Sensitivity Analysis: Reference Scenario 1

The Fleet & Fuel Model has many adjustable parameters that influence the 2020 projections. These parameters can be grouped into three types:

Passenger CarVans and Heavy DutyFuels

Some parameters are linked to an introduction year or can be modelled by a ramp-up function, resulting in additional sensitivity of the model projections.

Current calculations assume an immediate uptake by compatible vehicles upon first introduction of a higher blend maximum

The next pages display the sensitivity of Reference Scenario 1 to changes in these adjustable parameters. Sensitivities are displayed as %-changes in renewable energy demand in transport (using the RED methodology).

06 July 2010

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8. Sensitivity Analysis: Reference Case Scenario 1 – Pass Cars

Passenger Cars Parameter reference min maxSales M cars/a in 2020 20,20 16,2 24,2

Total fleet M cars in 2020 270 216 324

Total Mileage % yoy growth (2011+) 2,25% 1,8% 2,7%

CO2 sales avg 2020 g/km 95 95 120

Diesel reg. 2020 % of G+D 50% 30% 70%

CNGV sales 4,0% 2,0% 6,0%sales start year 2006

LPGV sales 0,40% 0,0% 2,6%

FFV sales 1,00% 0,0% 4,0%sales start year 2005

Electric vehicle sales 3,00% 1,5% 10,0%sales start year 2011

Sales assumptions for some alternative vehicles impact the RED-%

Parameter impact to RED-%

-0,6%

-0,4%

-0,2%

0,0%

0,2%

0,4%

0,6%ca

r sal

es

car s

tock

car v

km

car C

O2

car d

iese

l reg

.

car C

NG

car L

PG

car F

FV

car E

VImpa

ct to

RED

-%

Parameter minParameter max

06 July 2010

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8. Sensitivity Analysis: Reference Case Scenario 1 – Vans & HD

Sensitivity assumptions for vans and HD do not make a significant difference to the RED-%

Vans Parameters reference min maxCO2 sales avg 2020 g/km 175 160 175

vkm YoY growth 2011-2020 1,00% 0,8% 1,2%

CNGV sales share 2020 4,0% 2,0% 6,0%

FFV sales share 2020 1,0% 0,0% 4,0%

HD ParametersEfficiency 2011+ ALL HD classesYOY improvement 2011 - 2020 -1,45% -1,00% -1,45%Load factor ALL HD classes w/o bus&coachLoad YOY growth 2005-2020 0,080% 0,06% 0,10%Transport demand ALL HD classes w/o bus&coachtkm YoY growth 2011-2020 2,250% 1,8% 2,70%

HDV Vehicles 3.5-7.5 TonnesCNGV sales share 2020 2,0% 0,00% 4,00%

HDV Vehicles 7.5-16 TonnesCNGV sales share 2020 1,0% 0,00% 2,00%

HDV Vehicles 16-32 TonnesDME sales share 2020 0,50% 0,00% 1,00%

E95 sales share 2020 1,00% 0,00% 2,00%

CNGV sales share 2020 1,00% 0,00% 2,00%

HDV Vehicles bus&coachE95 sales share 2020 2,00% 1,00% 4,00%

CNGV sales share 2020 5,0% 0,00% 10,00%


-0,6%

-0,4%

-0,2%

0,0%

0,2%

0,4%

0,6%va

n ef

f.

van

vkm

van

CN

G

van

FFV

HD

eff.

HD

load

fact

or

HD

tkm

HD

3.5

t-7.5

t CN

G

HD

7.5

t-16t

CN

G

HD

16t

-32

CN

G

HD

16t

-32

DM

E

HD

16t

-32

E95

HD

Bus

&C

. CN

G

HD

Bus

&C

. E95Im

pact

to R

ED-%


06 July 2010

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8. Sensitivity Analysis: All Scenarios - Fuels

Pace of development of advanced biofuels significantly impacts RED-%

Biofuels availability 2020 reference min maxHVO [Mtoe/a] 3,0 1,5 4,5

BTL [Mtoe/a] 0,25 0,0 0,5

Adv. Ethanol [Mtoe/a] 0,64 0,00 1,28


-0,6%

-0,4%

-0,2%

0,0%

0,2%

0,4%

0,6%

HV

O

BTL

Adv

.E

than

ol

Impa

ct to

RE

D-%


06 July 2010

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8. Sensitivity Analysis: Selected Scenarios

Impacts of sensitivity:

Timely implementation of higher biofuel levels significantly impacts RED-%; For example, a 50% reduction in uptake of the E10 grade in Reference Scenario 1 would decrease the RED-% from 9.7% to 9.3%Implementing higher biodiesel levels in non-road sectors significantly impacts RED-%Renewable electricity in rail can contribute significantly to RED-%

E20 MY2015+: requires add. 0.7 Mtoe Ethanol in 2020B10 MY2015+: requires add. 0.8 Mtoe FAME in 2020B10 MY2015+(cars)/all(HD): requires 2.3 Mtoe FAME in 2020HD B15 all: requires add. 5.2 Mtoe FAME in 2020B30 for Inl. Nav. requires add. 1.3 Mtoe FAME in 2020


-2,0%

-1,6%

-1,2%

-0,8%

-0,4%

0,0%

0,4%

0,8%

1,2%

1,6%

2,0%H

VO

car F

FV

E20

MY2

015+

B10

MY2

015+

B10

MY2

015+

(car

) / a

ll (H

D)

B15

HD

MY2

015+

B15

HD

all

Biog

as in

CN

G

Ren

ew. E

lec.

in R

oad

B30

in In

land

Nav

.

Ren

ew. E

lec.

in R

ail

Impa

ct to

RED

-%


Additional sensitivities Reference min maxHVO availability in 2020 [Mtoe/a] 3,0 1,5 4,5

FFV sales% 2020 1,0% 0% 4,0%

E20 MY 2015+ first model year 2017 2015

B10 MY2015+ first model year 2017 2015

B10 MY2015+ (cars) & all (HD) first model year 2017 2015/all

B15 HD MY2015+ first model year 2017 2015

B15 HD all first model year 2017 all

Biogas in CNG Share e/e [%] 20% 0% 40%

Renewable electricity in road trans. Share e/e [%] 35% 100%

B30 for Inland Navigation FAME blend B7 B30

Renewable electricity in rail trans. Share e/e [%] 35% 100%

06 July 2010

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9. Biofuel Supply Outlook: Demand from scenarios

Will these quantities of bio-components be available for European use through 2020:

From domestic production and from imports?From sustainable sources meeting GHG reduction targets?Primary focus on availability, not costs and investments

Biofuel Type Demand Outlook(Scenarios)

Demand Outlook(Scenarios &

parameter variation)Conventional

BiofuelsBio-ethanol from fermentation Up to 8.5 Mtoe Up to 12 Mtoe

FAME (and FAEE) Up to 17.5 Mtoe Up to 19 Mtoe

Advanced Biofuels Bio-ethanol from lignocellulose 0.6 Mtoe 1.3 Mtoe

Hydrogenated Natural Oils (HVO) 3.0 Mtoe 4.5 Mtoe

Biomass to Liquids (BTL) 0.25 Mtoe 0.5 Mtoe

Other Renewables Biogas Up to 0.7 Mtoe Up to 1.0 Mtoe

Electric from renewables Up to 0.5 Mtoe Up to 1.0 Mtoe

06 July 2010

Slide 40 of 89


9. Biofuel Supply Outlook: Current situation in Europe

European domestic biofuel production:

Biodiesel (EU27)

Production capacity installed (2009) 20.9 Metric-tonnes(276 plants)

18.4 Mtoe

Actual production (2008) 7.8 Metric-tonnes 6.9 Mtoe

Installed capacity utilized (2008) 37%

Bioethanol (EU27)

Production capacity installed 6.8 M-liters(68 plants)

3.4 Mtoe

Actual production 2.9 M-liters 1.5 Mtoe

Installed capacity utilized 43%

Production capacity under construction

1.8 M-liters(13 plants)

0.9 Mtoe

Source: European Biodiesel Board ( www.ebb-eu.org)European Bioethanol Fuels Association (www.ebio.org)

06 July 2010

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9. Biofuel Supply Outlook : HVO

HVO capacity (Mt/a) HVO capacity (Mtoe/a)

Neste Oil Porvoo (running) 0.38 0.40

Neste Oil Rotterdam (2010) 0.80 0.84

ENI/UOP, Livorno, IT (2010) 0.35 0.37

Neste Oil Singapore (2011) 0.80 0.84

Galp Energia, Portugal (2015) 0.25 0.26

PREEM Oil (co-processing) 0.1 0.1

Others / co-processing ? ?

Sum (EU sites only) 1.88 1.97Sum 2.68 +? 2.81 + ?

Assumptions used for 2020 Reference case: 3 Mtoe +/- 1.5 Mtoe1. All announced commercial projects are realized2. All plants at 100% capacity (usual assumption is 80%)3. All global HVO production comes to Europe

Neste Oil announced projects account for the largest commercial production of HVODemand for HVO from other regions exists and may change in the future

Sour

ce: J

EC

ana

lysi

sG

loba

l Bio

fuel

sC

ente

r: N

ext G

ener

atio

n B

iofu

els

Faci

litie

s (2

010)

06 July 2010

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9. Biofuel Supply Outlook: FAME Supply

Supply projection for FAME: domestically produced and imported

Source: Wood Mackenzie ‘Global Biofuels Outlook’ (2009)

06 July 2010

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9. Biofuel Supply Outlook: FAME and HVO

Supply Projection: Wood Mackenzie ‘Global Biofuels Outlook’ (2009)

Supply of total HVO and FAME limited by total availability of natural & waste oilsImports are essential to fully utilize higher biodiesel blends

06 July 2010

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9. Biofuel Supply Outlook: Conventional Ethanol

Supply projection for ethanol: domestically produced and imported

• Conventional ethanol supply projected to be less than half the volume of FAME supply through 2020 without a major increase in imported ethanol


06 July 2010

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9. Biofuel Supply Outlook: Ethanol

Ethanol demand (max) = highest ethanol demand in all scenariosImports and development of advanced ethanol are key to meeting demand

Supply Projection Wood Mackenzie ‘Global Biofuels Outlook’ (2009)

06 July 2010

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9. Biofuel Supply Outlook: Conclusions

Although there are many uncertainties:Ethanol: likely to be available in volumes needed to cover EU demand given lower gasoline volumes and availability of imported ethanolFAME: possibly available in needed volumes with questions regarding domestic development, global demand, and competition for natural and waste oils from HVO productionAdvanced Ethanol: growing global supply but uncertainties remain about European production through 2020 HVO: competition with demand from global aviation sector; competition for natural and waste oils from FAME productionBTL: scale-up to world-class plant size difficult due to technical issues

Other related issues that could affect supply:Sustainability and certification criteria not yet definedImpact of Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) on GHG targetsImpact of taxation and tariffs on imports/exports

More information on biogas and renewable electricity can be found in App.12

06 July 2010

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10. Summary: Key Conclusions

Scenarios exist that achieve the RED 10% energy target for renewable energy in the transport sector with the given assumptionsNone of these scenarios achieves the minimum 6% GHG target (FQD Art. 7a) with the given assumptions (ILUC * not considered)

Realization of the scenarios depend on :Biofuel supply, especially the availability of sustainable biofuels to Europe CEN specifications, potential vehicle compatibility and pace of introductionCompatibility of the supply and distribution system for all fuel products Non-road contributions to RED-%, especially HVO/BTL use by the aviation sectorEach scenario would need policy measures (including incentives) to enable a smooth transition from today to the “theoretically achievable” projections

Much more technical work is needed to ensure feasibility of these scenarios and compatibility with upcoming Euro 6 emissions limits

Multi-stakeholder coordination and timely decisions will be essentialSeamless transition is important to ensure continued customer confidence

ILUC*: Indirect Land Use Change

06 July 2010

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10. Summary: Key ConclusionsVehicles:

Today’s vehicles are E10 (from MY2005) and B7 compatibleCompatibility of vehicles with higher biofuel blends still to be proven and will require time, testing and investment

Fuels:Compatibility of existing logistics infrastructure with higher grades is uncertainFQD Article 7a GHG target was not achieved in the chosen scenariosCoordinated development of CEN specifications is needed for higher gradesHigher blends must be fully utilized in order to approach RED/FQD targets

Biofuels:Significant questions regarding sustainability, pace of development, and importsGiven uncertainties, ethanol/FAME are in the range needed for the RED-% targetPace of non-conventional biofuel production and HVO/BTL uptake by aviation sector are especially important

Other Issues:Attractiveness of different scenarios will vary by Member StateNon-road contributions to RED-% are importantPotential exists for higher biodiesel blends to be used in non-road transport to meet targets but will require time, testing and investmentHigher biodiesel blends could also be used in non-road transport to meet targetsCosts and investments could be significant and were not evaluated in studyMaintaining consumer confidence in fuel and biofuel strategy is critical

06 July 2010

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11. JEC Biofuels Programme: Contributors

CONCAWE

José BARONigel ELLIOTT

Benoit ENGELENGerd HAGENOW

Alain HEILBRUNNLiesbeth JANSEN

Baudouin KELECOMMichael LANE

Jean-François LARIVÉSeppo MIKKONEN

Alan REIDJohn ROGERSON

Ken ROSEPirjo SAIKKONEN

Antonella SOPRANZETTIJRC

Covadonga ASTORGA-LLORENSRobert EDWARDS

Laura LONZAVincent MAHIEUGiorgio MARTINI

EUCAR

Renato ANDORFThomas BECKER

Jean-Christophe BEZIATAlessandro CODAIngo DRESCHERAndrea GERINISimon GODWIN

Heinz HASSEckart HEINL

Eberhard HOLDERGünther KLEINSCHEK

Heiko MAASHakan MALMSTADBeatrice PERRIERWillibald PRESTL

Anders RÖJAnn SEGERBORG-FICK

06 July 2010

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12. Appendix

1. Web-site Information & Background2. Fleet & Fuel Model3. Road Transport Biofuel Scenarios4. Biofuel Information5. Biofuel Supply6. Non-road Transport Sectors: Renewable Energy Outlook7. Other Studies

06 July 2010

Slide 51 of 89


The study report will be available on the WEB:http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/JEC

For questions / inquiries / requests / notesto the JEC Consortium,

please use the centralised mail address:[email protected]

12.1 Web site

mailto:[email protected]

06 July 2010

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12.1 Background: Industry Perspective on Biofuels Implementation

Both industries strongly support the CEN process as the preferred mechanism to ensure consistent product quality throughout the EUmarketplace as history has shown.

There is considerable debate around what are achievable and sustainable biofuel levels and political pressure to move forward even without EU/CEN fuel specifications.

Fuel manufacturers are required to blend biofuel components to levels needed to satisfy Member State ambitions.

Timing and blending levels are fragmented and uncoordinated between Member StatesNear-term biofuel targets are higher than allowed by existing CEN standards

Vehicle fleets must be compatible with biofuels standards

All stakeholders have an interest in generating relevant and scientifically sound data on these issues and have a demonstrated track record of working together on important problems.

06 July 2010

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150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

310

40 60 80 100 120 140

Gasoline Demand / Mtoe

Die

sel D

eman

d / M

toe

12.2 Fleet & Fuel Model: Current Projections of Transport Demand

Large variability amongst the different studies

Diesel / Gasoline ratioTotal amountAviation

2005EuroStat

F & F

DG TREN

iTREN-2030

EU Transport Energy Demand: [Mtoe]

2008 EuroStat

2020 iTREN2030

2020 JEC F&F

Road 303 300 285

Diesel 188 155 185

Gasoline 100 105 66

Other: Biofuels, CNG, LPG 15 40 34

Rail 10

Aviation 54 50

Inland navigation 6.5

Other Off-road 20

Total 373.5

W M

1)D

G T

RE

N: "

Eur

opea

n E

nerg

y an

d tra

nspo

rt tre

nds

to 2

030,

Upd

ate

2007

“2)

iTR

EN

2030

, 200

9

06 July 2010

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12.2 Fleet & Fuel Model: Simplified Flow ChartFlow chart applies for all vehicle types in the model: Vij

i = Passenger Cars, Vans, HD, Bussesj = propulsion system (Diesel, Gasoline, CNG, LPG, FFV, xEV)

Circles: Input informationRectangles: Model calculators

FC: fuel consumptionPT: powertrainGHG: greenhouse gas

salesi PT sharej Salesi,j

Stock sizej

stocki,j

New vehicle FCi

stock FCi,j

On-road factori

Fleet mileagej

Fuel demandi,j

Grades / blends

Grade compatibilityj,j

Annual mileage per

typej

Alt. Fuel availability

Renewable content

scrappagei,j

FQD methodology

RED-%RED

methodology

GHG emission

factor by fuel

FQD GHG saving (%)

06 July 2010

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12.2 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scrappage function

The scrappage function has been defined to ensure alignment with fleet turn-over in TREMOVE and ANFAC dataIt impacts the number of vehicles that are affected by a loss of a protection grade, e.g. E5 by E10/E20

Update: scrappage / survival of MY2005 cars

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

rem

aini

ng M

Y200

5 po

pula

tion

(200

5 sa

les

= 1)

F&F model update 27APR2010STEERS / TREMOVE

Effect in F&F model: By 2020, all vehicles older than MY2005 have a fleet share of 10% ( ~ TREMOVE / ANFAC)By 2020, gasoline cars older than MY2005 have a gasoline car fleet share of 13% (~17 mil. cars)

Effect in F&F model: By 2020, all vehicles older than MY2000 have a fleet share of 1.5%By 2020, gasoline cars older than MY2000 have a gasoline car fleet share of 2.5%

F&F car fleet 2005 - 2020

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2005 2010 2015 2020

num

ber o

f veh

icle

s [m

il.]

MY2020MY2019MY2018MY2017MY2016MY2015MY2014MY2013MY2012MY2011MY2010MY2009MY2008MY2007MY2006MY2005MY2004MY2003MY2002MY2001MY2000MY1999 + older

06 July 2010

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12.2 Fleet & Fuel Model: Recession impact on HD sales

Considers -20% to -50% sales changes 2008 to 2009Assumes that recovery back to 2008 sales levels takes until 2013

HD sales (with crisis impact)

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

mil/

a

B&C>32t16t-32t7.5t-16t3.5t-7.5t

HD sales (TREMOVE base)

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

mil/

a

Q1/06 =100 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010LCV upto 3.5t 100 105 106 62 68HD 3.5t-16t 100 96 112 69 60HD >16t 100 110 125 69 47HD Bus+coach 100 95 139 91 103

source: ACEA: New Commercial vehicle registrations, Dec 2009

Vehicle type 2008 2009 YoY changeLCV upto 3.5t 2,039,557 1,421,770 -30.3%HD 3.5t-16t 121,414 81,270 -33.1%HD 16t and over 316,030 164,645 -47.9%HD Bus+coach 48,835 39,311 -19.5%

Sum 2,525,836 1,706,996 -32.4%

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12.2 Fleet & Fuel Model: Actions contributing 1% to the RED-%

Biofuels:Impact toAction RED

stepfuel tech veh. tech

Remark

Add 2.9 Mtoe HVO to diesel pool 1% yes no 2-3 Mtoe announced capacities (~3 Mtoe assumed by Concawe) in 2020

Add 1.5 Mtoe BTL to diesel pool 1% yes no ~0.25 Mtoe announced capacities in 2020

E10 to E16 1% yes yes Vehicle Capability impacted

B7 to B8.4 1% Limited yes Vehicle Capability impacted

Alternative Vehicles:Car CNGV by 2020: 11% sales, 6% stock (~15 mil.) 1% yes Limited 20% biogas in CNG (1/2 is advanced biogas)

Car FFV by 2020: 5% sales, 2.7% stock (~7.5 mil.) 1% yes Limited 90% E85 take rate

Car EV by 2020: 13% sales, 3% stock (~8 mil.) 1% no yes 100% renewable electricity / 1/3 BEV, 2/3 PHEV (90% el. drive)

HD16t-32t E95 vehicles: ~20% sales 1% yes yes 100% E95 take rate. Vehicle capability? 3Mtoe E95 available?

Aviation: 4% to 5% bio-kerosene in kerosene 1% yes No First gen. kerosene by 2020

Rail: Approx. 45% renewable electricity 1% no No 45% share is slightly above expected 2020 EU grid average renew. target

For comparison: Other transport sectors

06 July 2010

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12.3 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scenario 2 (E20, B7) resultsRoad fuel (Mtoe) 2005 2010 2020Fossil Gasoline to car 118 87 64Fossil Diesel to car 58 61 69Fossil Diesel to HD 123 114 117Sum fossil Diesel 181 175 186Diesel to Gasoline ratio (road only) 1,5 2,0 2,9CNG 0,42 0,85 3,26CBG 0,82LPG 4,17 3,32 3,24FAME 1,50 11,90 12,80HVO 0,00 1,00 3,00BTL 0,00 0,00 0,25DME 0,00 0,00 0,09Total Ethanol 0,72 2,47 7,09EtOH conv. 0,72 2,47 6,45EtOH Adv. 0,00 0,00 0,64"Fossil" Electricity 0,00 0,00 0,28Renewable Electricity 0,15Sum road fuel demand 306 281 281



Fuel demand in road transport sector

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2010 2020

Fuel

dem

and

by fu

el ty

pe [M

toe]

Electricity

Biofuel

LPG

CNG

Diesel to HD

Diesel to LD

Gasoline

Alternative fuel demand in road transport

0

4

8

12

16

20

2005 2010 2015 2020

Mto

e/a

CNG

LPG

FAME

HVO

BTL

EtOH conv.

EtOH adv.

Electricity

Results:Fossil demand changes:

Gasoline demand decreases Diesel demand increasesDiesel/gasoline ratio increases from 2.0 to 2.9

Large biofuel volumes will be neededAdditional 1.8 Mtoe Ethanol over scenario 1 in 2020

Increasing demand for CNG & CBGRED target reached (10.3%) with given assumptions0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 B7, E20

Mto

e/a

0,0%

2,5%

5,0%

7,5%

10,0%

12,5%

15,0%

% R

ED


06 July 2010

Slide 59 of 89


12.3 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scenario 3 (B10, E10) resultsRoad fuel (Mtoe) 2005 2010 2020Fossil Gasoline to car 118 87 66Fossil Diesel to car 58 61 69Fossil Diesel to HD 123 114 116Sum fossil Diesel 181 175 184Diesel to Gasoline ratio (road only) 1,5 2,0 2,8CNG 0,42 0,85 3,26CBG 0,82LPG 4,17 3,32 3,24FAME 1,50 11,90 14,61HVO 0,00 1,00 3,00BTL 0,00 0,00 0,25DME 0,00 0,00 0,09Total Ethanol 0,72 2,47 5,32EtOH conv. 0,72 2,47 4,68EtOH Adv. 0,00 0,00 0,64"Fossil" Electricity 0,00 0,00 0,28Renewable Electricity 0,15Sum road fuel demand 306 281 281




0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2010 2020

Fuel

dem

and

by fu

el ty

pe [M

toe]

Electricity

Biofuel

LPG

CNG

Diesel to HD

Diesel to LD

Gasoline


0

4

8

12

16

20

2005 2010 2015 2020

Mto

e/a

CNG

LPG

FAME

HVO

BTL

EtOH conv.

EtOH adv.

Electricity



Large biofuel volumes will be neededAdditional 1.8 Mtoe FAME over scenario 1 in 2020


5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 B10, E10

Mto

e/a

0,0%

2,5%

5,0%

7,5%

10,0%

12,5%

15,0%

% R

ED


06 July 2010

Slide 60 of 89


12.3 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scenario 4 (B10, E20) resultsRoad fuel (Mtoe) 2005 2010 2020Fossil Gasoline to car 118 87 64Fossil Diesel to car 58 61 69Fossil Diesel to HD 123 114 116Sum fossil Diesel 181 175 184Diesel to Gasoline ratio (road only) 1,5 2,0 2,9CNG 0,42 0,85 3,26CBG 0,82LPG 4,17 3,32 3,24FAME 1,50 11,90 14,61HVO 0,00 1,00 3,00BTL 0,00 0,00 0,25DME 0,00 0,00 0,09Total Ethanol 0,72 2,47 7,09EtOH conv. 0,72 2,47 6,45EtOH Adv. 0,00 0,00 0,64"Fossil" Electricity 0,00 0,00 0,28Renewable Electricity 0,15Sum road fuel demand 306 281 281




Gasoline demand decreases, Diesel demand increasesDiesel/gasoline ratio increases from 2.0 to 2.9

Large biofuel volumes will be neededAdditional 1.8 Mtoe Ethanol over scenario 1 in 2020Additional 1.8 Mtoe FAME over scenario 1 in 2020


5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 B10, E20

Mto

e/a

0,0%

2,5%

5,0%

7,5%

10,0%

12,5%

15,0%

% R

ED



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2010 2020

Fuel

dem

and

by fu

el ty

pe [M

toe]

Electricity

Biofuel

LPG

CNG

Diesel to HD

Diesel to LD

Gasoline


0

4

8

12

16

20

2005 2010 2015 2020

Mto

e/a

CNG

LPG

FAME

HVO

BTL

EtOH conv.

EtOH adv.

Electricity

06 July 2010

Slide 61 of 89


12.3 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scenario 5 (E10, B7, B15H) results



Large biofuel volumes will be neededAdditional 2.6 Mtoe FAME over scenario 1 in 2020

Increasing demand for CNG & CBGRED target reached (10.5%) with given assumptions




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 B7, B15H, E10

Mto

e/a

0,0%

2,5%

5,0%

7,5%

10,0%

12,5%

15,0%

% R

ED



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2010 2020

Fuel

dem

and

by fu

el ty

pe [M

toe]

Electricity

Biofuel

LPG

CNG

Diesel to HD

Diesel to LD

Gasoline


0

4

8

12

16

20

2005 2010 2015 2020

Mto

e/a

CNG

LPG

FAME

HVO

BTL

EtOH conv.

EtOH adv.

Electricity

06 July 2010

Slide 62 of 89


12.3 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scenario 6 (E20, B7, B10H) results





5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 B7, B10H, E20

Mto

e/a

0,0%

2,5%

5,0%

7,5%

10,0%

12,5%

15,0%

% R

ED






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2010 2020

Fuel

dem

and

by fu

el ty

pe [M

toe]

Electricity

Biofuel

LPG

CNG

Diesel to HD

Diesel to LD

Gasoline


0

4

8

12

16

20

2005 2010 2015 2020

Mto

e/a

CNG

LPG

FAME

HVO

BTL

EtOH conv.

EtOH adv.

Electricity

06 July 2010

Slide 63 of 89


12.3 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scenario 7 (E10, E85, B7) results



Large biofuel volumes will be neededAdditional 1.9 Mtoe Ethanol over scenario 1 in 2020Less 0.1 Mtoe FAME over scenario 1 in 2020


5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 B7, E10, E85

Mto

e/a

0,0%

2,5%

5,0%

7,5%

10,0%

12,5%

15,0%

% R

ED






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2010 2020

Fuel

dem

and

by fu

el ty

pe [M

toe]

Electricity

Biofuel

LPG

CNG

Diesel to HD

Diesel to LD

Gasoline


0

4

8

12

16

20

2005 2010 2015 2020

Mto

e/a

CNG

LPG

FAME

HVO

BTL

EtOH conv.

EtOH adv.

Electricity

06 July 2010

Slide 64 of 89


12.3 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scenario 8 (E20, E85, B7) results

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 B7, E20, E85

Mto

e/a

0,0%

2,5%

5,0%

7,5%

10,0%

12,5%

15,0%

% R

ED







Large biofuel volumes will be neededAdditional 3.7 Mtoe Ethanol over scenario 1 in 2020Less 0.1 Mtoe FAME over scenario 1 in 2020

Increasing demand for CNG & CBGRED target reached (10.9%) with given assumptions


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2010 2020

Fuel

dem

and

by fu

el ty

pe [M

toe]

Electricity

Biofuel

LPG

CNG

Diesel to HD

Diesel to LD

Gasoline


0

4

8

12

16

20

2005 2010 2015 2020

Mto

e/a

CNG

LPG

FAME

HVO

BTL

EtOH conv.

EtOH adv.

Electricity

06 July 2010

Slide 65 of 89


12.3 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scenario 9 (E10, E85, B7, B10H) results





5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 B7, B10H, E10, E85

Mto

e/a

0,0%

2,5%

5,0%

7,5%

10,0%

12,5%

15,0%

% R

ED






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2010 2020

Fuel

dem

and

by fu

el ty

pe [M

toe]

Electricity

Biofuel

LPG

CNG

Diesel to HD

Diesel to LD

Gasoline


0

4

8

12

16

20

2005 2010 2015 2020

Mto

e/a

CNG

LPG

FAME

HVO

BTL

EtOH conv.

EtOH adv.

Electricity

06 July 2010

Slide 66 of 89


12.3 RED Implementation Scenarios: Scenario Summary

Scenario1

( Ref ) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Blends in 2020

E5, E10,

B7

E10, E20,

B7

E5, E10,

B7, B10

E10, E20,

B7, B10

E5, E10,

B7, B15 (HD)

E10, E20,

B7, B10 (HD)

E5, E10, E85,

(FFV ~5% sales ‘20)

B7

E10, E20,E85,

(FFV ~5% sales ‘20)

B7

E5, E10, E85,(FFV ~5% sales ‘20)

B7, B10 (HD)

1st Gen Biofuels 18.5 Mtoe 20.3 Mtoe 20.3 Mtoe 22.1 Mtoe 21.0 Mtoe 21.2 Mtoe 18.5 Mtoe 20.2 Mtoe 21.2 Mtoe

Adv. Biofuels

HVO, BTL, Adv. Ethanol

4.8 Mtoe 4.8 Mtoe 4.8 Mtoe 4.8 Mtoe 4.8 Mtoe 4.8 Mtoe 4.8 Mtoe 4.8 Mtoe 4.8 MtoeRoad

Alt. vehicles LD: CNGV,

EV, FFV

HD: CNGV, E95V, DMEV

1.8 Mtoe 1.8 Mtoe 1.8 Mtoe 1.8 Mtoe 1.8 Mtoe 1.8 Mtoe 3.6 Mtoe 3.6 Mtoe 3.6 Mtoe

Renew. Electricity 2.5 Mtoe 2.5 Mtoe 2.5 Mtoe 2.5 Mtoe 2.5 Mtoe 2.5 Mtoe 2.5 Mtoe 2.5 Mtoe 2.5 Mtoe

RailB7 in Diesel 0.2 Mtoe 0.2 Mtoe 0.2 Mtoe 0.2 Mtoe 0.2 Mtoe 0.2 Mtoe 0.2 Mtoe 0.2 Mtoe 0.2 Mtoe

Water B7 in Diesel 0.4 Mtoe 0.4 Mtoe 0.4 Mtoe 0.4 Mtoe 0.4 Mtoe 0.4 Mtoe 0.4 Mtoe 0.4 Mtoe 0.4 Mtoe

Air -/- -/- -/- -/- -/- -/- -/- -/- -/- -/-

Sum renewable 28.1 Mtoe 29.8 Mtoe 29.9 Mtoe 31.7 Mtoe 30.6 Mtoe 30.8 Mtoe 29.9 Mtoe 31.6 Mtoe 30.8 MtoeDenominator (road & rail) according to RED

290.9 Mtoe

290.9 Mtoe

290.9 Mtoe

290.9 Mtoe

290.9 Mtoe

290.9 Mtoe

290.9 Mtoe

290,9 Mtoe

290.9 Mtoe

RED-% 9.7% 10.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.5% 10.6% 10.3% 10.9% 10.6%

Not

e: ro

undi

ng m

ight

lead

to il

logi

c su

ms

06 July 2010

Slide 67 of 89


12.4 Biofuel Information: Conversion FactorsTonne of Oil Equivalent (toe):

A unit of energy corresponding to the amount of energy released by burning 1 tonne of crude oilBecause different crude oils have different calorific values, the exact value of one toe is defined by conventionDifferent organizations have adopted slightly different valuesThis study has adopted a value of 41.85 PetaJoules (PJ)

Barrel of Oil Equivalent (boe):Approximately 0.146 toe (i.e. there are approximately 6.841 boe in a toe)

Sou

rce:

Wik

iped

ia a

nd s

tudy

mod

el

1 Mt of: Equals how many PJs of energy?

Equals how many Mtoe?

Petrol (2010) 43.2 1.032Ethanol 26.8 0.640

Diesel (2010) 43.1 1.030FAME 36.8 0.879HVO 44.0 1.051

BTL Diesel 44.0 1.051CNG 45.1 1.078LPG 46.0 1.100

Electricity (1 TW-h) 3.6 0.086

06 July 2010

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Current European CEN Specifications:For pure bio-components:

Ethanol: EN15376 (for blending up to 5% in gasoline)Fatty Acid Methyl Esters (FAME): EN14214

For gasoline: 5% v/v (E5) ethanol and 2.7% oxygen (EN228)For diesel: 7% v/v (B7) FAME in diesel fuel (EN590)Generally no limits on addition of 2nd Generation renewable diesel

Hydrogenated vegetable oils (HVO) and animal fatsBiomass-to-Liquids (BTL)

Member State Initiatives:France: E10 (2009); B7 (2008) and B30 for captive fleetsGermany: B7 plus 3% renewable diesel (2008), B100 for specially adapted vehiclesOther Countries:

B20 (Poland) and B30 (Czech Republic) for captive fleetsE85 in Austria, France, Germany, and Sweden

Standardization of high quality fuels containing bio-components is essential to ensure trouble-free performance in the current/future fleet

12.4 Biofuel Information: Biofuel Blends in EU27

06 July 2010

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12.4 Biofuel Information: Pace of Bio-component Developments

Defined ByFeedstock Utilisation

Defined ByTechnology Maturity

“1st

Generation”Ethanol from

sugar cane, grains, sugar beets, etc.

FAME from:vegetable oilsanimal, waste oils

Widely available commercial technology:FermentationEtherificationEsterification

“2nd


biomassDi-Methyl Ether

(DME) from black liquor

Biomass to LiquidsHydrogenated oilsFAME from:

non-edible seeds (jatropha, karanja)

new seed oils (cuphea, crambe, cotton seed)

Being implemented orat pilot plant stage:

Gasification/synthesisHydrotreatingHydrogenationLignocellulose process

“3rd

Generation”Biogas from

wasteBiohydrogen

Biodiesel from algae At research stage:PyrolysisHydrothermal upgrade

Defined ByFeedstock Utilisation

Defined ByTechnology Maturity

“1st


sugar cane, grains, sugar beets, etc.

FAME from:vegetable oilsanimal, waste oils

Widely available commercial technology:FermentationEtherificationEsterification

“2nd


biomassDi-Methyl Ether

(DME) from black liquor

Biomass to LiquidsHydrogenated oilsFAME from:

non-edible seeds (jatropha, karanja)

new seed oils (cuphea, crambe, cotton seed)

Being implemented orat pilot plant stage:

Gasification/synthesisHydrotreatingHydrogenationLignocellulose process

“3rd

Generation”Biogas from

wasteBiohydrogen

Biodiesel from algae At research stage:PyrolysisHydrothermal upgrade

06 July 2010

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12.5 Biofuel Supply: Primary References

Wood Mackenzie: Conventional Biofuels“Food and Fuel: The Outlook for Biofuels to 2020”Released July, 2009

Global Biofuels Center: Advanced Biofuels“Special Report: Status of Next Generation Biofuels Facilities”Released April, 2010

Plus publicly available reports and websites

Focus has been on availability of different biofuel types through 2020, not on biofuel costs

06 July 2010

Slide 71 of 89


12.5 Biofuel Supply: Outlook for Biofuels to 2020Wood Mackenzie partnered with Céleres in 2008-9 to merge oil product demand data with agricultural supply and trade data

Céleres is a Brazilian-based consulting company focused on global agribusinessThe Wood Mackenzie-Céleres Outlook has been used as a primary source in this study to evaluate likely biofuel supply volumes through 2020 because:

Recent update on a 2008 comprehensive study from a credible and independent sourcePublicly available (upon purchase)


• Biofuel demand initially derived from Wood Mackenize’s road transport fuel demand, incentives to promote biofuels, and constraints on biofuel demand

• Demand output provided as input to Céleres agricultural model

• Demand for crops for food, fuel, and other uses included

• Assumptions included for crop yields and available land area

• Céleres model evaluated supply and demand for major crop types

06 July 2010

Slide 72 of 89


Sources: Wood Mackenzie ‘Global Biofuels Outlook’ (2009)Global Biofuels Center ‘Next Generation Facilities’ (2010)

12.5 Biofuel Supply: Key Messages

Significant growth in biofuels consumption over the coming decade driven by ambitious renewable fuels policies in spite of concerns regarding sustainability.

Conventional Biofuels:Surplus of biodiesel conversion capacity will persist over the long-term, putting pressure on biodiesel producer margins.Additional ethanol capacity will be required to meet demand within a few years.Biofuels will remain overwhelmingly reliant on food crops as feedstocks which will continue to present risks in terms of public opinion and pricing.Biofuel demand will remain reliant on subsidies or mandates due to their high cost of production. An exception will be Brazilian sugarcane ethanol, which could become increasingly attractive as a relatively cheap liquid fuel in export markets. Latin America production will continue to grow with exports of biofuels and feedstock crops increasing rapidly.

Advanced Biofuels:Most advanced technology is renewable diesel, particularly hydrogenation of

vegetable oil, even though LC ethanol has more announced pilot/demo facilities.Although most announced projects indicate a 2010 or 2011 production timeline, commercial operations are being delayed.Asia is the region with the most next generation biofuels capacity while the U.S. has the most facilities.Next generation biofuels demand cannot be met in the near term.

06 July 2010

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12.5 Biofuel Supply: FAME Feedstocks

Rapeseed and soybean dominate vegetable oils used for domestic FAME productionSignificant volumes of jatropha, algae, and BTL not expected through 2020


06 July 2010

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12.5 Biofuel Supply: EtOH Feedstocks

Lignocellulose ethanol not expected to provide significant volumes of domestically produced ethanol by 2020


06 July 2010

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12.5 Biofuel Supply: Global biodiesel production

Global Biodiesel production capacity and utilisation, 2008

06 July 2010

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12.5 Biofuel Supply: Global ethanol production

Global Ethanol production capacity and utilisation, 2008

06 July 2010

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12.5 Biofuel Supply

Major global Biodiesel trade flows

06 July 2010

Slide 78 of 89


12.5 Biofuel Supply

Major global Ethanol trade flows

06 July 2010

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12.5 Biofuel Supply: FAME and HVO from Waste Oils

Used cooking oils and animal fats are the main resourcesIt has been estimated that potentially available quantities are 0.95 Mtoe and 2.25 Mtoe respectivelyTotal volume not expected to grow dramatically in the coming decadeIt is assumed that about 1/3 of the available resource, or 1 Mtoe is used in transport in 2020Biofuels from this resource count double, i.e. 2 Mtoe, towards the 10% RED targetSource: information received from European Commission’s DG ENER

06 July 2010

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12.5 Biofuel Supply: Biogas

Current supply picture for biogas supply in 2020:2007 EU production of biogas: 5.9 Mtoe, sources: landfill gas (~50%), sewage sludge (~15% ) , "gas, others" (incl. energy crops) (~35%); applications: electricity generation, injection in grid (then fuel; domestic, industrial application)2020 AEBIOM "realistic“ outlook: ~40 Mtoe2020 theoretical potential: 166 Mtoe (IE Leipzig 2007; see AEBIOM publ., page 16)

Biogas availability does not limit the modelled demand in the F&F model (~4Mtoe). However, both CNG and biogas road fuel potential varies by EU member states (in terms of natural gas infrastructure, CNG filling stations, biogas availability, biogas sources, etc.)

Sources:http://www.aebiom.org/?p=231#more-231http://www.eurobserv-er.org/pdf/baro186_a.pdfhttp://www.ngvaeurope.eu/downloads/statistics/20100406/1-ngvs-and-stations-in-europe-dec-2009-update.xls

http://www.aebiom.org/?p=231#more-231

http://www.eurobserv-er.org/pdf/baro186_a.pdf

http://www.ngvaeurope.eu/downloads/statistics/20100406/1-ngvs-and-stations-in-europe-dec-2009-update.xls

06 July 2010

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12.5 Biofuel Supply: Renewable ElectricityJRC Report (March 2009) http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/refsys/pdf/RE%20Snapshots%202009.pdf

35 to 40% of the total electricity (3,200 – 3,500 TWh) has to come from Renewable Energy Sources in 2020 to meet the [20-20-20] target.In 2005 14% (460 TWh) of the Gross Electricity Generation (3,300 TWh) came from Renewable Energy sources.

European Renewable Energy Council Roadmap to 2020 (2008) http://www.erec.org/fileadmin/erec_docs/Documents/Publications/Renewable_Energy_Technology_Roadmap.pdf

Depending on the development of the total electricity generation, renewable energies will be able to contribute between 33% and 40% to total electricity production. Assuming that the EU will fulfill its ambitious energy efficiency roadmap, a share of over 40% of renewables in electricity production by 2020 is realistic.

Energy transport and environment indicators (2009 edition) http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-DK-09-001/EN/KS-DK-09-001-EN.PDF

Roadmap 2050 (April 2010) http://www.roadmap2050.euBy 2020 EU reaches the production of electricity from RES roughly implied by the 2020 targets (34%). In the baseline, RES penetration in electricity by 2020 reaches the level forecasted in the baseline scenario of the IEA WEO 2009 of 29%.

100% renewable electricity (March 2010) (PWC) http://www.supersmartgrid.net/2010/03/policy-roadmap-to-2050-a-100-renewable-electricity-supply-for-europe-and-north-africa-is-possible/

http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/refsys/pdf/RE Snapshots 2009.pdf

http://www.erec.org/fileadmin/erec_docs/Documents/Publications/Renewable_Energy_Technology_Roadmap.pdf

http://www.erec.org/fileadmin/erec_docs/Documents/Publications/Renewable_Energy_Technology_Roadmap.pdf

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-DK-09-001/EN/KS-DK-09-001-EN.PDF

http://www.roadmap2050.eu/

http://www.supersmartgrid.net/2010/03/policy-roadmap-to-2050-a-100-renewable-electricity-supply-for-europe-and-north-africa-is-possible/

http://www.supersmartgrid.net/2010/03/policy-roadmap-to-2050-a-100-renewable-electricity-supply-for-europe-and-north-africa-is-possible/

06 July 2010

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12.6 Non-road Transport Sectors: Renewable Energy Outlook

The following sources have been used to estimate the renewable energy demand in 2020 for the sector rail:

Deutsche Bahn strives to increase renewable electricity from 16% to 30% by 2020 (Jan. 2010)

http://www.co2-handel.de/article341_13418.html

SNCF tests B30, B100http://www.francerailpass.com/frp/Eco-Mobilityhttp://www.sncf.com/resources/en_EN/medias/MD0305_20070803/template/RF/2006/rf2006.pdf

UK’s renewable energy strategy: Biofuels & renewable electricity for rail

http://www.opinionsuite.com/berr/download?filename=uk-renewable-energy-strategy-consultation-document

http://www.co2-handel.de/article341_13418.html

http://www.francerailpass.com/frp/Eco-Mobility

http://www.sncf.com/resources/en_EN/medias/MD0305_20070803/template/RF/2006/rf2006.pdf

06 July 2010

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The following sources have been used to estimate the renewable energy demand in 2020 for inland navigation:

“Inland Navigation Europe”:Uptake road quality diesel fuel with 10ppm Sulfur: as of 2011 it will be for the entire fleet available – bunkering stations are obliged to make it available.This means a small % could be biofuel.Potential for hybridisation, fuel cells and full electric for small vessels

GREENPEACE: Biodiesel in inland navigation could ease environmental burden

http://www.greenpeace.de/themen/sonstige_themen/feinstaub/artikel/biodiesel_mogelpackung_auf_kosten_der_umwelt/

06 July 2010

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The following sources have been used to estimate the renewable energy demand in 2020 for aviation:

IATA has set a target of using 10% alternative fuels by 2017 together with an average improvement in fuel efficiency of 1.5% per year from 2009 to 2020 building on the Technology Roadmap of May 2009 taking into account the Strategic Research Agenda produced by ACARE (air transport technology platform)

http://www.iata.org/SiteCollectionDocuments/AviationClimateChange_PathwayTo2020_email.pdfhttp://www.iata.org/SiteCollectionDocuments/Documents/Technology_Roadmap_May2009.pdf

British Airways has set out plans to build a biofuel production facility in London, where biogas will be produced from waste and then converted into synthetic kerosene via the Fischer Tropsch method. Announced capacity by 2014: 16 mil imperial gallons/a -> 73 mil. L/a -> 0.06Mtoe/a

http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2257855/pioneers-east-london-waste-jet

Several test flight with and activities around biofuelsKLM, North Sea Petroleum, World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF): "join forces to ensure that we

quickly gain access to a continuous supply of biofuel" Air New Zealand's Boeing 747-400 powered by Rolls-Royce turbines: HVO based on JatrophaContinental Airlines, Boeing, GE Aviation/CFM International, Honeywell: Second gen biofuels

derived from algae and Jatropha plants

http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2257855/pioneers-east-london-waste-jet

06 July 2010

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12.7 Other Studies: DG TREN

DG TREN: "European Energy and transport trends to 2030, Update 2007“1) 2005 EuroStat statistics2) 2020 baseline scenario

Energy demand EU-27+2 Transport

2005 1)

[Mtoe]2020 2)

[Mtoe]Road 306.5 350

Rail 9.5 10

Aviation 52.4 73

Inland navigation 6.7 6

Sum 375.2 439

06 July 2010

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12.7 Other Studies: iTREN2030

New “Integrated Scenario”:Lower energy demand for road transportNo major changes in the other sectors

iTREN-2030 Final Conference, Oct. 21st 2009http://isi.fraunhofer.de/isi/projects/itren-2030/

06 July 2010

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12.7 Other Studies: iTREN2030

Decrease of diesel and gasoline consumptionIncrease of kerosene, biofuels, gas and electricity

iTREN-2030 Final Conference, Oct. 21st 2009http://isi.fraunhofer.de/isi/projects/itren-2030/

06 July 2010

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12.7 Other Studies: Wood Mackenzie (2009)

Road fuel demand continuing steady shift from gasoline to dieselJet/kero demand expected to increaseRatio of diesel to gasoline continuing to grow through decade

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Tota

l die

sel /

gaso

line

Dem

and

Mt/a

Gasoline Jet/Kero On-road Diesel Of f -road Diesel (incl. rail)

Source: IEA/ Wood Mackenzie 2009

06 July 2010

Slide 89 of 89


12.7 Other Studies: Wood Mackenzie (2009)

Europe is short on diesel production and long on gasoline providing a market opportunity for biodiesel blendstocks

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

LPG NaphthaGasolineJet/Kero Diesel Gasoil LSFO HSFO

Bal

ance

s (M

t/a)

2000 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025

Surplus

Deficit

Greater Europe

Source: Wood Mackenzie (2009)