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Justien Marseille
from hunting to farming2008
zeeuws vlaanderen,2008
Circus der gedachten Carre amsterdam
2010
The future Of money, 2008
future of ict & education2010 / 2011
Trend alert, 1993
Oh crisis #3,2012
Pressure cooker care2009
from big Brother to Big sister,2007
For ever moving2007
from capitalism to Marktmarxism,
2007
the rumour ..column SER jubilee
2010
nominated to be2010
nominated to be2011
from democracy to Meritocracy
2009
Friend or fiend Co creation
coolhaveneiland, 2009
news-radio analysis
2010
TEdxYouth team,2011
CReating 010 getting the context
EmotionalSubculture
ConceptualGroup
Complex systems Network
3
LAGGARDS
16%
EARLY & LATE MAJORITY
67%
EARLY ADAPTORS
14,5%
INNOVATORS
2,5%
Passion driven inventors,disloyal.
Gatekeepers, selects and adapts innovations
The majority, in search for similarity and save leadership risk avoiding
Cannot or wil not follow
2020201520001995
Rogers’ Innovation Diffusion Model
Arrival (and over-arrived) signals are underestimated, the well known is overestimated
(the more to the mean the bigger the miscalculation)
De gatekeeper, early adapter, influencer,includes, shuts it out. He selects, adapt or adopt,
Herewith guiding the group, its follower in direction and speed.
Innovator early adopters early and late mass laggard
Cognitive dissonance / selective perception
Eeks! Strange! Of course! Done that. Of course! Strange! Eeks!
Designers translation roleThe chasm
Designer as process facilitator& translator
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Kritisch en zonder vreesover mogelijke toekomsten
Eeks! Uiterst merkwaardig! Goh! Logisch! Heb ik ook. Logisch! Goh! Uiterst merkwaardig! Eeks!
De waarde (en invloed) van zowel innovator als laggard (‘de creatief ’ ) wordt structureel onderschat. De waarde van dat wat we (nog maar net) kennen wordt structureel overschat.
De gevolgen van cognitieve dissonantie leiden tot de (Vincent) Van Gogh paradox: waardeloos voor en onbetaalbaar na erkenning.
Opgaaf voor de toekomst is te komen met economisch service design / business model dat recht doet aan de waarde van de creatief, die vorm geeft aan die toekomst.
---Micromedia en data analyse lijken deze paradox te kunnen doorbreken en openen de black box,
individuele creatieve toevoegingen worden traceerbaar en analyseerbaar.Niet alleen maakt dit de toekomst voorspelbaar, het erkent ook de waarde van dat wat afwijkt.
The spread of a new idea is influenced by four main elements: (Rogers, e, 1967)
The innovation, communication channels, time, and a social system. (Rogers, E. , 1963)
-Due to the rule of cognitive dissonance men tends to underestimate the effect of the unknown- (and overestimate the effect of the things we are over involved in.)
Most of the time (80- 99%) we just follow, blind for the signals that are cognitive dissonant to what we believe and want t o see
fig. 1
* Predictable Future
fig 2
fig 3
fig 5
*
fig 4
*
Kritisch en zonder vreesover mogelijke toekomsten
Eeks! Uiterst merkwaardig! Goh! Logisch! Heb ik ook. Logisch! Goh! Uiterst merkwaardig! Eeks!
De waarde (en invloed) van zowel innovator als laggard (‘de creatief ’ ) wordt structureel onderschat. De waarde van dat wat we (nog maar net) kennen wordt structureel overschat.
De gevolgen van cognitieve dissonantie leiden tot de (Vincent) Van Gogh paradox: waardeloos voor en onbetaalbaar na erkenning.
Opgaaf voor de toekomst is te komen met economisch service design / business model dat recht doet aan de waarde van de creatief, die vorm geeft aan die toekomst.
---Micromedia en data analyse lijken deze paradox te kunnen doorbreken en openen de black box,
individuele creatieve toevoegingen worden traceerbaar en analyseerbaar.Niet alleen maakt dit de toekomst voorspelbaar, het erkent ook de waarde van dat wat afwijkt.
Most of the time we are blind to see the real value of fenemoenons, due tot the law of cognitieve dissonance.
Value at true value.
fig. 1
* New signals
fig 2
fig 3
fig 5
*
fig 4
*Measurable since the explosion of the social whispering
Fig. 1 Arrivals New signals < 0,0125 % of the populationFig 2 S (Speed) Time from first to reach 13,5 - 20% of the populationFig 3. D (Direction) Adoption and attitude towards the arrival by people, rated by influence *or colourFig. invoegen Interpretation of the chasm, translation into mass models designing Fig 4. CD (CogDis) Cognitive Dissonance, slows or fastens the diffusion.Fig. 5 (C )Context Context, 5-7 main drivers of change
F(uture)= A*(S*D)*CD*C( *ofzoiets) ,
Arrival and over arrived signals are underestimated, the well known is overestimated
(the more to the mean the bigger the miscalculation)
De gatekeeper, early adapter, influencer,includes, shuts it out. He selects, adapt or adopt,
Herewith guiding the group, its follower in direction and speed.
Innovator early adopters early and late mass laggard
Cognitive dissonance / selective perception
Eeks! Strange! Goh! Of course! Done that. Of course!! Goh! Strange! Eeks!
The designers translation roleThe chasm
social city
meeting the mailmantalking to the neighbours
sharing your groundyour beliefs
storiestime
contactsrecognition
need for belonging
designing the futurecreating the context
entertainment
sharing stories
being included, recognized
connecting in public space
music
contact
physics, outside
waiting situations
awkwardness
certain placesairports, station,
hallway
food
sharing live contact
shorten distance
fun
lonleyless
Is work, or the plant still driver for the city? or did the city became a social node?
50.000 followers helped to search the Nevada desert. One request from the
hart, with joined forces, worth a fortune in old values.
driving forcesself organisation by
reputation.
food & spacemicro-use
...City gardening. Unstable upwards. In need of better self organisation.
Social networks are about interests..
*Network message food & nature ..
...there are fresh Jeruzalem Artichokes, do you like to join to get some?
social city
every niche has its followers
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Self-sufficiency, not out of a lack of money,
but out of a need for independence
social city
where are we willing to collaborate, share stories? Where starts the inside and
what do we share in our private space and In what way do we like to be spoken to?
everything is a touchpoint. Research the context.
Is it a restaurant, a home kitchen or a meeting place?
Is it safe? Is there a way to make it work for you?Collect signs and sources.
distance and nearness
Where does social start
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distance and nearness
Where does social start
The book of abundance.
...While scarcity dissolves material goes back to museal values. The value of history.
Sustainable. Deventer, 2011.
Shopkeeper or pass timer?
Poverty or smart meeting place?
...Question old paradigms, about markets, advertising, wealth.
driving forces
end of scarcity
social city is not aobut things,
it is about attention.
HAKa Building, Delfshaven.
...Romancing the elderly and their old fashioned concepts. Things that just work. Searching for small trust. Possible due to
network garranties.
In need of better self organisation...smart links between data and the users,
direct, relevant, pushed.
#Sharing In a connected culture it is not about monopolising means
but about mobilising forces, goods & needs10 miljoen koste het, en er hangt een advertentie voor de app op de i phone onder.
entertainment
sharing stories
being included, recognized
connecting in public space
music
contact
fysics, outside
waiting situations
awkwardness
certain placesairports, station,
hallway
food
sharing live contact
shorten distance
fun
entertainment
sharing stories
being included, recognized
connecting in public space
music
contact
fysics, outside
waiting situations
awkwardness
certain placesairports, station,
the hallway
The spread of a new idea is influenced by four main elements: (Rogers, e, 1967)
The innovation, communication channels, time, and a social system.
Everybody is connected to everythingFrom hunter-gatherers in territories to citizens in nation states,to employees in organisations,
To individuals in networks.With different roles, in different situations, with different values.
From hierarchie to networkmore local bound then ever
tekst
KellyTNW’07 , Friedman , Pralahad, 1994 ev.
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Faster than the car or mobile, #micromedia reached 50% of the public.
And the public found each other.
In many touch points. Clustered around interests, needs, wants.
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REsearchtouchpoints
driversconnection nodes
communication channels
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The app Buitenbeter wakes the civil servant in of all of us.
driving forceszelforganisation of public
tasks
http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2011-10/santa-cruz-experiment
driving forcesprodictable futures
• Connecting
• About and through what? When, where, why?
• Sharing thoughts, time, stories, means
• Collected, selected and communicated trough certain channels.
• In public spaces
• Touch points and communicators
Social city is about
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justien Marseille
meaningful innovative education
creating 010
...een veilige plek om mijn gedachten te te laten landen..
predictable futures
cases:http://www.socialcitiesoftomorrow.nl/
broaden your horizon
>Designing with Life Code, tJuan Enriquez
creatief beheer
Arrivalcities.net
ValuesLearning devices Representations
Phenomena
Design as a process of Worldmaking
Interventions
PeopleActivities
InteractionsProductsArtefactsContextBusiness
TechnologyStoriesEffectsEtc...
ActivitiesInteractions
ProductsArtefactsBusiness
TechnologyEtc...
QuestioningReadingUsing
ListeningObservingWatchingAnalysingMaking
EvaluatingSimulatingDiscussingCritiquing
Etc...
PrototypesPosters
SketchesStories
ScenariosMovies
DiagramsPersonas
Fact sheetsCapture cardsPresentations
ReportsEtc.
Knowledge
ExperiencesInspiration
AssumptionsFacts
Models
TrendsObservations
Information
Insights
Stories
Principles Theories
Worldmaking is a process of forming an idiosyncratic mental model in
order to understanding the factors that drive the transformation from the
current state to the desired state.
Design methods and techniques are are learning devices that
support these activities.
Bas Leurs ([email protected])June 14, 2012
and their
values
The intervention ultimately leads to a change in the world
These representations are used to share the mental model with stake-
holders or to supprt the inner dialogue of the designer.
