Efsec fse-2007

ESEC/FSEDubrovnik ‘07

Pervasive Computing and the Grid: the birth of a computational Exoskeleton

Dubrovnik, 3-7 September 2007

Roberto SiagriEurotech Spa

President & CEO

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Communication Overcomes Computing

The framework is changing now.The Internet is redefining software.

The Internet is redefining the role of computing and communication ………

I still don’t understand the framework. I don’t think any of us really do.

But some aspects of it are pretty clear.

It’s proven not to be computing basedbut communication based.

from : “Decisions Don’t Wait”, Harvard Management Update. 2003

Andy Groveformer INTEL CEO

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Le Phénomène Humain, 1955

Pierre Teilhard de Chardin(1881-1955)

Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist,

Developmental Systems Theorist

Technological “Cephalization” of the Earth

"No one can deny that a network (a world network) of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us.

With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively."

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The

is yourFriend

Trend

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Moore's Law MiniaturizationProcessing, Storage, ...Price/Performance 2X over 12-18 months

Metcalf's Law InterconnectionValue of a network increases with the square of the numberof connections (or according to the Zips law is less then the square)

Gilder's Law QuantizationBandwidth increases 3X every 36 months

Negroponte's Law DigitizationSuperiority of "bits over atoms"Profound impact felt in "Knowledge Economy" whereideas are ultimate raw material

Meta-Trends in Technological Acceleration

adapted from: John Smart "Acceleration Studies Foundation"

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Region

CampusBuilding

Body

World

Continent

according to Gordon Bell “Everything will be in Cyberspace ….

Fractal (scale-free) Cyberspace: a network of … networks of …

platforms

Car

Home

Smart Dust

Adapted from the original by Gordon Bell 1998

……and covered by a hierarchyand covered by a hierarchyof computers! of computers! ””

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Cosmic Embryogenesis (in Three Easy Steps)

Geosphere/Geogenesis(Chemical Substrate)

Biosphere/Biogenesis(Biological-Genetic Substrate)

Noosphere/Noogenesis(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)

Le Phénomène Humain, 1955

The The noospherenoosphere is a "planetary thinking network" is a "planetary thinking network" an interlinked system of consciousness and information, an interlinked system of consciousness and information, a global net of selfa global net of self--awareness, instantaneous feedbackawareness, instantaneous feedback

and planetary communicationand planetary communication

Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition

Pierre Teilhard de Chardin

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LessisMore


Malthus was wrong. He forgot a factor:

our continual ability to do more and more with less and less.

"Ephemeralization"America telephoned Europe:

- Not long ago

via 175,000 tons of transatlantic copper cables.

- Now a single 1/4-ton communications satellite does the job better, faster, more clearly,

with more bandwidth and a fraction of the energy.

"Ephemeralization“ i.e. Less is More

R. Buckminster Fuller1895 - 1983

Transistors are an example of doing almost anythingwith practically nothing,

…. because of the software!

inventor, architect, engineer, mathematician,poet and cosmologist.

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This trend has also been called“virtualization,”“weightlessness”

and

Matter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density.

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Miniaturization (MEST compression) :the Engine of Innovation

MatterEnergySpaceTime

Information

“All progressions are from material to abstract…”“The principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and energy

per each given level of functional performance”R. Buckminster Fuller

The percentage of information in every new product or new service is asymptotically moving to 100%.

The cost of information at every level is subject to a deflection of approx. 50% per year.

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Saturation of Global Energy Use:Energy Consumption Per Capita

Later developers, using “advanced technologies”,require far less time and energy

to reach equivalent GDP.


we keep on doing more and more with less and less

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Branded Notebook 1000€ Kg

Ferrari Car 120€ Kg

Business car 30€ Kg

Utility car 15€ Kg

Euro / kilo

• F22 Raptor 6500€ Kg

• Fashion dress 5000€ Kg

• Branded Smart Phone 4500€ Kg

• Branded PDA 3500€ Kg

Gold is 15000 € Kg

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MEST Compression:

Facts:• Machines are more MEST efficient with each new generation.• Global energy intensity (energy consumption per capita) has been

flat for almost three decades in the developed world.• Weight of GDP per capita goes down in all developed Service

Economies.

Physics:• Future computational technology requires little or no energy:

– Nanomolecular computing– Quantum computing, – Reversible logic,– …etc.

a a ““Paradise of ResourcesParadise of Resources”” for Leading Edge Computationfor Leading Edge Computation

“More, Better, with Less.”

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Computers: Future Opportunities from Nanosystems

Type Qty MIPS Total MIPSSupercomputers 103 107 1010

Mainframes 105 105 1010

Workstations 106 104 1010

PCs 108 102 1010

Embedded Systems 1010 101 1011

Total 2x 1011

Fudge Factor x 50

Equivalent current computing power 1013

(*) Eric Drexler - Nanosystems

Roughly 100 times more powerful than

all the computing power currently in existence

Sugar cube sized computer (1 cm3) having 1015 MIPS(*)

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How many bits/second can be transferred?Assume a power dissipation of 1W and a volume of 1cm3

This is roughly the equivalent of 109 Pentiums!

1018 bit/sec

Non reversible logic in Classical Physics Theory

Plenty of Room at the Bottom

“… there is plenty of room to make them [computers] smaller. There is nothing that I can see in the physical law that says the computer elements cannot be made enormously smaller than they are now. …”

R. Feynman, 1959: Annual meeting of the American Physical Society

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Ultimate (zetta-wattaflop) Computing Machine according to Seth Lloyd

a 1-kg computer compressed to the black-hole limit R= 2Gm/c2 ~ 10–27 m

can perform : 1051 ops/sec

on its 1016 bits,

and store about : 1031 bits.”

Seth Lloyd“Ultimate physical limits to computation”

Nature, 2000

Quantum Physics Theory

Modern parallel computers in a few years will achieve

1015 ops/sec

with a pace of Moore’s law: x2 every 1.5 years technology needs~ 250 years to reach these limits

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Value... Superiority of bits over atoms

Value

Abundance

Atoms

Bits

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Cyberspace

&Exoskeleton

PervasiveUbiquitous Computing

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• Ubiquitous high bandwidth connection to the Internet at all times

• Massive computation available on demand through the GRID

• Tiny Computers embedded in

– the environment,– our clothing,– our body

• Augmented real reality

Computers are becoming pervasive and ubiquitous

Pervasive GRID:A COMPUTATIONAL EXOSKELETON

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In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.

Humans vs. Technology (i.e.:Machines)

Brian Arthur, SFI

No other credible long term futures

have been proposed.

“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.”


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Smart’s Laws of Technology

1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do.

2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of technological evolutionary development.

3. The first generation of any technology is often dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity, and with luck the third becomes net humanizing.

from: John Smart "Acceleration Studies Foundation"

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Digital World : Natives vs. Immigrants

Digital NativesHOMO ZAPPIENS

• twitch speed • multi tasking • non-linear approaches • processing discontinued information • iconic skills • connected • collaborative • active • learning by playing • instant payoff • fantasy • technology as friend

Digital ImmigrantsHOMO SAPIENS

• conventional speed • mono tasking • linear approaches • processing single information flows • reading skills • stand alone • competitive • passive • separating learning and playing • patience • reality • technology as foe

courtesy: Mark Prensky

source Wim Veen

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Web 2.0 from user centric (Web 1.0) to human centric

• Users benefit from – Collaboration– Sharing– Socialization

• Users are Prosumers and ConsumersProduce ConsumeContents ContentsMashups Mashups

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Web 2.0 is the common term used to refer to the new generation of web

applications and systems that enable

community or

many-to-many relationships.

A simple definition of Web 2.0

reported by Kevin Evans on Off the Rails

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M2M 2.0Machines are producers and consumers

• generate XML, RSS, GeoRSS• blog• …

Web 2.0 unifies data from Machinesinto a web platform

that is delivered to consumershowever they want through mashups

They do things that users can do, but better:

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What is Pervasive Computing ?It means to make data and application services available to any

authorized user anywhere, anytime, and on any device.

It means to create an environment where “everything” is a computing node which communicates wirelessly and interacts

seamlessly with humans.

HPC clustersQoS Network Appliances

Mobile Net-AppMobile Computers

WearableComputerDevices Networks of wireless

Body/Environmental Sensors

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What is a Grid?

• persistent networked environments integrating geographically distributed supercomputers, large databases, and high end instruments

NASA definition

In the beginning ….

The Grid, ed. Ian Foster, Carl Kesselman, 1999

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Now….. combining Pervasive computing & the GRID

“ Grid computing and pervasive computing are two visions of the future that really do seem to be upon us, and so surely

they must be investigated together rather than in

isolation.”De Roure, 2003

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Pervasive + Grid

“Pervasive computing is the means by which the digital world of the Grid couples into our physical world.”

“In other words, pervasive computing provides the manifestation of the Grid in the physical world.”

HPCs&

Clusters

TCP/IPTCP/IP

Embedded &Mobile PCs

De Roure 2003

Real World(Sensors Nets &

Actuators)

Real World(Sensors Nets &

Actuators)

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a Hierarchical PERVASIVE Computing GRID

“...It's alreadybeginning to happen …But we'll see even more tremendous growth whenintelligence becomes embedded,

when virtually everythingbecomes a computing device”.

“ Someday soon, morethan one millionbusinesses will beconnected to more than one billionpeople by one trillion devices...”

Quote from:L.V. Gerstner, former IBM CEO

GRID

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Home Care&Assisted LivingComputers

PERVASIVE (Netcentric) HEALTH CARE SCENARIO

HPC

Wearable Systems

Mobile PC

Smart Sensors

HPCClusters

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Digital Technologies for a better World

“ The most profound technologiesare those that disappear. They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it ”

"The Computer for the 21st Century", Scientific American - 1991Mark Weiser

System on board

System on chipComputer on board

Computer “mote”

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• Traditional computing has stretched the limitations of the mind

• Pervasive and Ubiquitous computing is extending the reach of both mind and body

What is Ubiquitous Computing ?

a Bio-Physical Extension

• Ubiquitous computing “enhances” our senses

….but the underlying (GRID) hardware infrastructure

cannot be perceived (“invisible”)

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Human Centric vs Computer Centric

“ There is more information available at our fingertips during a walk in the woods than in any computer system, yet people find a walk among treesrelaxing and computers frustrating.

Machines that fit the human environment, instead of forcing humans to enter theirs, will make using a computer as refreshing as taking a walk in the woods.”

Mark Weiser, 1991

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....now what’s about

new designs

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Ask the customers? ……….. Are you crazy?

“If you ask the public what they think they will need, you will always be behind in this world.

You will never catch up Akio Morita, Sony founder

unless you think one to ten years in advance

and create a market for the items you think the public will accept at that time.”

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The Developmental Spiral

• Homo Habilis Age 2,000,000 years

• Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 years

• Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 years

• Agricultural Age 7,000 years

• Empires Age 2,500 years

• Scientific Age 380 years (1390-1770)

• Industrial Age 180 years (1770-1950)

• Information Age 70 years (1950-2020)

• Symbiotic Age 30 years (2020-2050)

• Autonomy Age 10 years (2050-2060)

• Tech Singularity ≈ 2060

source "Acceleration Studies Foundation"

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The Symbiotic Age: a coevolution between

Humans and Technology• A time when computers “speak our language.”

• A time when technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires.

• A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other.

• A time when we begin to feel “naked”without our computer “clothes.”

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whileWaitingfor the

SymbioticAge

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If time = money......then so does position .. & contest

Systems Positioning is becoming (in economic terms)as essential as communication networks

POSITION & CONTEXT AWARE

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Zypad a Wearable Info Appliance

• Unique technology• Significant Competitive advantage • High acceptance in the marketplace• New class of value-added services provided to customers

in Ambient intelligence

Wrist worn wearable Computer

Main Features: Touch screen, GPS, WiFi, Bluetooth. Optional functions: Zigbee or RFID reader. Operating systems: Linux or Win CE.

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a family of Wrist Wearable Computers

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A WORLD of SMART Things

SOLO, a research project of a wearable smart thing. A pendant-like device for personal affinity matching

and personal data management.

sealed box w/ contactlesspower supply;

communication via ZigBee(IEEE 802.4.15)

visual Comm. via RGB Led

Harvesting and dissemination of datatrips among users and

through the internet

the NETthe NET

ETHlab with the support ofSw: P. L. Montessore et al., DIEGM UniUD

Hw.: A. Abramo et al. DIEGM UniUD

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What’s about

Sw ?

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Problems: Software Complexity P

rodu

ctiv

ity

Complexity and Size

Assembly

Structured Programming

Service Oriented Programming

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1.2 Billion Cell Phones Can’t be Wrong!From a ’90s legacy point of view the Java programming language suffers from a series of misconceptions:• It’s slow• Hard to learn• Too much of a resource hog• Hard to interface to custom hardware.

….but from a practical “ this stuff just works and you should really look at it”point of view :

• Fast enough• Rapid code development from a large repository of existing code • Memory management• Write once, run anywhere (It is a virtual machine)• Network and WEB centric• IT Aware• Available frameworks (OSGi) • …..

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Tools

• An IDE : ECLIPSE

• A language : JAVA

• a SOA for Devices : SODA

• and the WEB 2.0 technologies

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……. the Challenge. the Challenge

•• Society and Computing will form an Society and Computing will form an evolutionary symbiosisevolutionary symbiosis

•• Research has to guide and focus the evolution Research has to guide and focus the evolution to the goal while dealing withto the goal while dealing withuncertainty and privacyuncertainty and privacy

UltimatelyUltimatelyThe systems have autonomously to adapt to The systems have autonomously to adapt to

satisfy evolving human needs satisfy evolving human needs

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

with Software you can do

new, interesting, creative and

enjoyable things