Economic Indicators December 2013

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Economic Indicators

Last update 13.12.2013

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Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – December 2013

Europe:

• Consensus December GDP forecast for WE again remained on 0,0% for 2013 and on 1,3% for

2014.

• The EU industrial confidence improved again compared to last month while the consumer

confidence indicator decreased slightly from its October level.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose significantly, both, the assessment of the

current business situation as well as the assessment of the expectations improved.

• After the ECB cut the target interest rate by 0,25%points on November 7 the concern of the

central bank remains on the output gap, excess liquidity and a weak recovery.

US:

• Consensus December GDP forecast for the US remained on 1,7% for 2013 and on 2,6% for

2014.

• Q3 GDP figures were considerably revised upwards from 2,8% q-o-q to now 3,6%. Main driver

were inventories, but they could translate into a drag on Q4 growth. Financial markets are trying

to come to terms with the fact that monetary tapering is now likely to come sooner rather than

later.

Japan:

• The December GDP growth forecast for Japan came down from 1,9% to 1,8% for 2013 and

remained on 1,6% for 2014.

• Muted wage growth remains a burden to the outlook while many other of the country’s

parameters have improved during the last months.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28

Source: Eurostat Dec 13

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

'07

Q1

'08

Q1

'09

Q1

'10

Q1

'11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28


-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

'07Q

1

'08 Q

1

'09 Q

1

'10 Q

1

'11 Q

1

12

Q1

13

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index

Source: Eurostat Nov 13

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

08

/1

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

0,9

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED Dec 13

Nov.13; 0,9

Dec 13; 0,25

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Jan

08

Ju

ly 0

8

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

Jan

14

Ju

l.14

Jan

15

%

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate


10,9

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

%

Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved again in November.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 27 in November decreased slightly from October.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Ja

n 0

6

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27

Source: Eurostat Nov 13

60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

79,5

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 13

The Ifo World Economic climate brightens in Q4 2013

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 13

The economic climate for Europe brightens significantly in Q4 2013.



Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 13



Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Oct 13


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Oct 13


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO Dec 13


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Dec 13

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose significantly. Assessments of the current

business situation improved. Firms’ expectations regarding business developments rose to

their highest level since spring 2011. The German economy looks ahead to the winter months

with confidence.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO Dec 13

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose significantly. Assessments of the current

business situation improved. Firms’ expectations regarding business developments rose to

their highest level since spring 2011. The German economy looks ahead to the winter months

with confidence.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

Source: IFO Nov 13, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry remained on -3 in November.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – November 2013:

The assessment of the current business situation in the printing

industry improved considerably compared to the last month to now 24%,

the highest value since December 1991. Still it has to be taken into

account that November is one of the months with the highest turnover

during the year. Remains to be seen whether this positive tendency will

continue.

The business climate – an indicator for the development in

the next quarter – remained on -3%, the same value as in the previous

month.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months worsened to -27%.

Source: IFO Dec 13, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release

Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13










Technology

Economic Indicators December 2013