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Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview December 2012
Citation preview
| [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date] 1
Economic Indicators
Last update 18.01.2013
| Economic Indicators | 2
Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – January 2013
Europe:
• Consensus January GDP forecast for WE decreased from 0,2% to 0,1% for 2013. Forecast for
2014 is on 1,2%.
• While the EU industrial confidence improved slightly in December, the consumer confidence
indicator decreased somewhat.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose again in December. While companies
assessed their current business situation as somewhat less favorable they were considerable
less pessimistic about future business developments.
• The Euro area’s return to recession in Q4 2011 may well have extended through to end 2012.
Consensus predicts only a muted 2014 recovery in GDP after the declines in 2012 and 2013.
US:
• Consensus January GDP forecast for the US improved from 1,9% to 2,0% for 2013. Forecast
for 2014 is 2,8%
• The ‘fiscal cliff’ was averted as a late deal on taxes was reached. However, negotiations over
Federal spending cuts and the debt ceiling are postponed to February-March, extending
uncertainty over the outlook. Business activity remains fragile four years after the 2008 financial
crisis.
Japan:
• The January GDP growth forecast for Japan improved from 0,6% to 0,7% for 2013. Forecast for
2014 is 1,0%.
• Latest data show few signs of improvement in the Japanese economy.
3 | Economic Indicators |
Eurostat Data
| Economic Indicators | 4
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
Source: Eurostat Nov 12
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
06
Q1
'07
Q1
'08
Q1
'09
Q1
'10
Q1
'11
Q1
12
Q1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year
| Economic Indicators | 5
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
Source: Eurostat Nov 12
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
'06Q
1
'07Q
1
'08 Q
1
'09
Q1
'10 Q
1
'11 Q
1
12
Q1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
| Economic Indicators | 6
Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index
Source: Eurostat Jan 13
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
'08
/1
'09
/1
'10
/1
'11
/1
12
/1
2.3
%
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
| Economic Indicators | 7
Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
Source: ECB, FED Jan 13
Dec 12; 2,2
Jan 13; 0,75
Jan 13; 0,25
-0,5
0,00,5
1,0
1,52,0
2,5
3,03,5
4,0
4,55,0
5,5
Jan
08
Ju
ly 0
8
Jan
09
Ju
l.09
Jan
10
Ju
l.10
Jan
11
Ju
ly 1
1
Jan
12
Ju
l.12
Jan
13
Ju
l.13
ECB short-term rate
Eurozone inflation
FED rate
| Economic Indicators | 8
Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate
Source: Eurostat Jan 13
10.7
6
7
8
9
10
11
Ja
n 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries
| Economic Indicators | 9
Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Jan 13
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10Jan
06
Ja
n 0
7
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Ja
n 1
1
Jan
12
Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved again in December.
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
| Economic Indicators | 10
Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Jan 13
Consumer Confidence within EU 27 decreased slightly in December.
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
| Economic Indicators | 11
Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
Source: Eurostat Nov 12
60
65
70
75
80
85
04
Q1
05
Q1
06
Q1
07
Q1
08
Q1
09
Q1
10
Q1
11
Q1
12
Q1
%
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
| Economic Indicators | 12
Ifo Data
| Economic Indicators | 13
Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
Source: IFO Nov 12
The Ifo World Economic climate worsened again in the 4th quarter 2012
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
| Economic Indicators | 14
Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate
Source: IFO Nov 12
The economic climate for Western Europe worsened again in the
4th quarter 2012.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
| Economic Indicators | 15
Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
Source: IFO Nov 12 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
| Economic Indicators | 16
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Jan 13
GDP growth for 2012 was revised downwards from the December forecast.
| Economic Indicators | 17
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Jan 13
| Economic Indicators | 18
Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO Jan 13
| Economic Indicators | 19
Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Source: IFO Jan 13
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Business situation 6 months expectations
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the
economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next
6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose again in December. While companies assessed
their current business situation as somewhat less favorable than last month, they were
considerably less pessimistic about future business developments. German companies are more
confident about the future.
| Economic Indicators | 20
Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
Source: IFO Jan 13
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose again in December. While companies assessed
their current business situation as somewhat less favorable than last month, they were
considerably less pessimistic about future business developments. German companies are more
confident about the future.
| Economic Indicators | 21
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
Source: IFO Jan 13, bundesverband druck und medien
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a
monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
The business climate within the printing industry improved slightly from -9 to -7 in December.
| Economic Indicators | 22
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a
monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Business Development at German Printers – December 12:
The assessment of the current business situation in the
printing industry improved from +12%points in November to now
+21%, 9%points better than in the same month of last year.
The business climate – an indicator for the development in
the next quarter – remained negative with -7%, 2% points up from
-9% in November.
The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained
negative for the 4th month in succession, decreasing again from -
28% to -32%points.
Source: IFO Jan 13, bundesverband druck und medien
| Economic Indicators | 23
Zenith Data
| Economic Indicators | 24
Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12
Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years,
rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015
Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow
2% in 2015
Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between
2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to
37%
Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in
internet display over the next three years
Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total
in 2015
| Economic Indicators | 25
Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12
At current prices
| Economic Indicators | 26
Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12