Digital Destinies

The coming symbiosis of mankind & technology

Peter Cochranecochrane.org.uk

Man v mach i n e Science Fiction and Hollywood nightmares

real ity ChecKMachines beat us at Chess, GO & Poker

learn ingAlmost like a young child

HUMAN REACTIONWhy oh why do we think we are unique ?

W i t h o ut D I G I T E C HWe would have and know nothing!

Techno logy

Change s

Eve ryth

i ng

Hypothesis

To a c h i e v e g l o b a l s t a b i l i t y a n d p e a c e :

“ We n e e d t o s t o p p r o d u c i n g m o r e a n d m o r e f o r t h e

f e w … . a n d s t a r t p r o v i d i n g s u f f i c i e n t f o r t h e m a n y ”

O u r o n l y h o p e :

“ E m b r a c i n g n e w t e c h n o l o g y a n d p r o c e s s e s i n c l u d i n g

b i o t e c , n a n o t e c , r o b o t i c s , A I a n d n e t w o r k i n g ”

P e o p l e m o v e m e n t a n d g l o b a l i s a t i o n i s a l s o e s s e n t i a l !

what we know for sure

- T h e r e s o u r c e s o f p l a n e t e a r t h a r e f i n i t e

- O u r s o c i e t i e s a r e d e n u d i n g e v e r y t h i n g

- To d a y ’ s g r e e n a g e n d a s a r e i n s u f f i c i e n t

- G l o b a l w a r m i n g i s v i s i b l y h a p p e n i n g

- M o d e r n s o c i e t i e s a r e n o t s u s t a i n a b l e

- E v e r y t h i n g i s g e t t i n g m o r e c o m p l e x

- W e s l e e p w a l k i n t o b i g p r o b l e m s

- R e v e r s e g e a r i s n o t a n o p t i o n !

Technology/society only progress in one direction - to stop or go backwards would entail a terrible cost

A tyranny of SIMPLE

- A s s u m p t i o n s - M e a s u r e s - T h i n k i n g - M o d e l s - D a t a

E v o l v e d f o r a n s l o w c h a n g i n g a n a l o g u e

w o r l d - w e c a n c o p e w i t h 3 - 7

i d e a s a t t h e s a m e t i m e

“There are lots of simple solutions to complex problems

but they are all wrong”

• Raw Data

• Meta Data

• Small Data

• B I G D a t a

E v e r y s e c t o r i s a w a s h / o v e r w h e l m e dWhat we HAVE TODAY

W h a t w e a c t u a l l y n e e d :

B I G U N D E R S T A N D I N G

“Helicopters didn’t fly upside down…but they do now”

Aldous Huxley

“Would be amazed that we buy and install

our own microphones and cameras….

“…and we are disappointed when people are

not l istening and watching…”

george orwell

SYSTEMS OF THINKING

f

“We have created a world in which we are fundamentally challenged by non-linearity and chaos…and we need the help that only our machines can furnish”

LinearPoor RecallFinite memoryLimited capacityConstrained utilitySlow processingSlow evolutionInaccurate

IllogicalReactiveNon-linearInconsistantPoor recallInstinctiveEmotional

realisationSensory - Dexterity - Ambulation -Concentration - Tenacity - StaminaEnergy - Focus - Attention ++++H u m a n l i m i t a t i o n s

NEW Machines & AI

The biggest advance in human capabil it ies….giving us new ways of thinking and complex problem solving…

“New technologies always create more capabilities, and a demand for more people - they never destroy the labour market - it is o u r i n a b i l i t y t o m a n a g e t h e transition from the old to the new that is the big problem”!

W A R G A M I N G

A r t i f i c i a l L I F E

Computer Modelling

M at e r i al

S c i en c e

Clouds

B I G D A T A

S M A L L D A T A

BYOD

BMOB

DIY IT

SensorsRobots C y b e r

Security

B igGest GAMES IN TOWN ?

NanoBioSimulation

AI

IoT

A u t o I m m u n i t yWe only have time for a very small sample of the key elements

Analytics

Social Nets

Bl o

ck

Ch

a i n

s o c i o l o g y o f M a c h i n m s &

T h i n g s

UWBSporadic Nets

MMI

VR

A R

the font of all Futures

BioTech

NanoTech

AI

A triumvirate of tech for workable sustainabilities

The primary hotspotfor the 21C

New materialsNew industriesNew processesNew capabilities

Lower energyLower wasteLess friction

NEW materials

M e t a l , P l a s t i c , C o n c r e t e , E l e c t r o n i c C i r c u i t sSELF HEAL ING Mater ials

N o t h i n g s t i c k s a l w a y s d r y a n d c l e a nHydrophobic Coatings

Self cleaning Printed panels

Colour programmable Self repairing to a point

Integrated energy storage

feasible Engineering Not pos s ib l e ye t - bu t ce r ta in l y f eas ib l e

SOUND WITH NO MOVING PARTSA pending revolution in surround sound & cancellation

Artif ic ial intelligence

>20M texts available<3M selected for analysisArgument abstracted pro - con

No human re source can do th i s !

I B M WATS O NH u m a n s o v e r t a ke n b y 2 0 1 1

WATSON In med ic ineH u m a n s d i a g n o s i s s k i l l o v e r t a k e n 2 0 1 2

A I CONTEXT A vital step toward cognition

Feel Sight Taste Smell

Sound Experiences

Cameras Mobiles Sensors Media Nets IoT

“Let us pray”

“Lettuce spray”

“Let us spray”

Are we in church/mosque,

kitchen or garden ?

Ultimately, AI

is defined by

sensory systems

Intell igent search & Sort

Stored information growth

1986

I can’t draw

a dot small

enough!!

.1996

0.001ZB

2006

0.13ZB

2016

13ZB

IoT will accelerate this trend to promote ever more on device storage

ZetaByte = 1021 ExaB = 1018 PetaB = 1015 TeraB = 1012

Prognosis: IoT small data distributed storage may exceed the

internet

smart work i n gIntegrated apps and internet search

search E ng i n es Brilliant and useless at the same time

Spending 80% of your time searching instead of doing isn’t a smart

way of working !

AI could easily fix this but these companies are not going to let it

happen !

Unlikely to embrace AI/Smart/Intelligent se

arch

It reduces th

e number of clicks and $$$$

T r u t h E n g i n es Easy to confirm facts - conjecture is harder

Vital for: • Politics • Society • Science • Farming • Internet • Security • Industry • Education • Healthcare • Commerce • Government • ++++

“In most arenas truth is dynamic and changes

with our ability to test & measure”

“Accepted truths advance toward an absolute state

with our ability to challenge them”

Sourc e S earc hOriginal accounts v repeats

Identify primary sources and qualified reports…

Across multiple sources - locationsCorre l at i o n

Weighted sources by reputation/history: BBC = 0.95 Bloomberg = 0.90 FoxNews = 0.70 +++ +++ Twitter = 0.01

Early R&D phase but of great interest to Google, IBM, CIA, FBI, et al

robots L ike usOr even better in some extreme cases

Able to go and be where humans can’t, won’t or shouldn’t go to work without fatigue or complaint…

S p e c i a l i s e d b u t b e c o m i n g increasingly flexible, adaptable and capable…

robots unLike usTaking care of many of our needs

Doing what we cannot do year onyear with precision and quality…producing complex goods and consumables

…including packaging, warehousing and logistics + exploration in zones of disaster and large scale accidents

Vertical FarmingFood production on demand just in time Continual JIT crops on demand

Far greater yields 90% less water Less or no soil No pesticides

Unaffected by climate Consistent quality Less land use

sensory systems

new tech destroys jobsWhilst changing the nature of work and employment

Lost in my l i fet ime:Typists

DockersMilkman

BlacksmithSecretaries

Drawing officeXerox operator

Elevator operatorComputer operator

Telephone operatorComptometer operator

Financial report writers++++

TestersTastersAnalystsAdvisorsEducatorsReportersStrategistsCall centresReport writersPersonal bankersPersonal assistantsAnswering services

Investment bankersWarehouse PeoplePersonal AssistantTech suppor t

Stock TraderReceptionistForecastersTrain driverResearcher

JournalistDrivers

Pilots++++

Lost in your l i fet ime:

tech Creates/Enhances jobsW h i l s t c h a n g i n g t h e n a t u re o f l i f e , wo r k & e m p l o y m e n t

Jobs to come:

3/4D DesignerRisk Profilers

Cyborg EngineerProtein DesignerCrime Predictor

Digital HistorianInformation CaretakerTruth Engine Mediator

Component RepurposerGenome-Protein Activators

Material ProgrammerRecycling DesignersInterface DesignersMachine MediatorsWisdom ArchivistsGenome DesignerMaterial DesignerWisdom MonitorsTrouble ShootersNano-EngineersBio-Engineers

Jobs to Be enhanced:

FabricatorGeneticistGeneralistProteomistMulti-designerProblem solverLongevity advisorBig Data AnalystCellular programmerMaterial programmer

Complexity analystsSecurity ExpertsEntrepreneurs

TechnologistsConsultantsArch i t e c t sDetectivesDesignersEngineersModellersScientists

Medics

Education-change S tuden t s f o r t omor row, no t ye s t e rdayNew methods/curriculum for a new worldStudent - mentor - human and machine

R e c a l l i n g f a c t s , f i g u r e s , p roces ses , methods i s not a measure o f i n te l l i gence - mach ines can do tha t !

rate of Education change M u s t g e t a h e a d o f i n d u s t r y a n d f o r g e l o n g t e r m l i n k s

Prob lem so l v ing ab i l i t i e s & c rea t i v i t y now t rump pure

academic a t ta inment

A n y t i m e , t o p i c , l o c a t i o n , s t y l e ,

a n d f o r m a t

inverted Innovation Expertise and experience is on the move

Tanks to ToysIn TheP a s t

Today Games to Guns

Opening up a new range of opportunities

P e r s p e c t i v e1 0 0 f o l d m o re c h a n g e t h a n u s

“ O u r l e g a c y s h o u l d b e a w o r l d o f s u s t a i n a b l e p ro g re s s f o r a l l p e o p l e s t o c o m e”

I t a

l l s t

a r ts

wi t

h

e d u c a t i on

The future belongs to the most adaptable and those

who dare !

Thank You

1995

cochrane.org.uk