Crisma presentation - Workshop 2013-05-30

Modelling crisis management for improved action and preparedness

Funded from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 284552 "CRISMA“

Modelling crisis management for

improved action and preparedness

(CRISMA)

CRISMA Workshop

Brussels, 30.05.2013

Denis Havlik (AIT), Johannes Sauter (Fraunhofer)

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Overview

What is CRISMA?

CRISMA test cases

Technical Design Decisions

What do we expect from you today?

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CRISMA-project in a nut shell

EU-FP7

Theme 10: Security Call

FP7- SEC-2011.4.1-1 Crisis management modelling tool

Type of funding scheme: Collaborative Project

Type of project: Integration Project

Work programme topics addressed: SEC-2011.4.1-1

Duration 42 months

Start date: 1st March 2012, End date: 30th August 2015

Effort 1097,85 person months

Cost/EU-Funding appr. 14.4 m Euro / appr. 10.1 m Euro

WWW www.crismaproject.eu

Contacts Anna-Mari Heikkilä, VTT

[email protected]

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CRISMA Partners (1)

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VTT

Insta

FMI

* ESC

TTU

AD

AI

FhG

EADS

CIS

* DRK

AM

RA

* MDA, Israel

NICE, Israel

AITSGH

SpB

PSCE

CRISMA Partners (2)

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CRISMA Vision:

Support crisis managers and

other stakeholders in training and

planning activities related to large

scale crisis

These crisis typically surpass the

capacity of the local crisis

management and may have

significant cascaded and side-

effects.

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Intended uses of CRISMA

Debriefing

Real-life exercises

(Desktop) Training Planning

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Overview

What is CRISMA?

CRISMA test cases



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CRISMA test cases

Pilot A : Northern winter storm with cross-border effects (Finland)

Pilot B : Coastal Submersion – Charente-Maritime (France)

Pilot C : Accidental Pollution – Ashdod (Israel)

Pilot D : Geophysical Hazards – L’Aquila (Italy)

Pilot E : Mass casualty incident (Germany)

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Pilot A : Northern winter storm with cross-border

effects (Finland) Enduring low temperatures,

heavy snowfall and strong

winds have caused major

regional and cross-border

problems.

Considers failing of traffic and

power lines, communication,

heating, health services, water

and waste water systems.

Large-scale & cross-border.

Cascading effects are likely.

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CRISMA in Pilot A

Use:

"CRISMA tool" is used in exercise/scenario planning in

working groups (small groups of 5-7 persons), for planning,

executing and refining the training scenario

Iteratively going through different options and parameterizing

the tool, viewing different results from "decisions" taken

The added-value:

common view to scenario planning/execution work for

cooperating organizations

possibility to see gaps in processes and resources in planning

and training situations -> to improve preparedness in long-term

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Pilot B : Coastal Submersion – Charente-Maritime

(France) A coastal submersion on the

Atlantic coast of Charente-

Maritime in France caused by

strong winds.

Amplification due to strong tide

Public facilities and civil

protection systems are

severely affected.

Isolated people, ruptured

communications routes...

Cascading effects

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CRISMA in Pilot B

Needs

Telling the national level

ASAP what kind of impact is

expected ( large scale, local

scale)

When and where to send

observers, how many (dike

survey ,.. reality from the

field)

Where are possible

bottlenecks, where are

endangered people, what

are possible cascading

effects ?

Sharing a common simulation platform and set of

tools (instead of usual risk maps that are valid only for

a given event under given circumstances)

Assessing the potential impact of a given event at a

large scale for all crisis response team members,

Identifying the possible most impacted areas,

possible most damaged dikes, …

Assessing the impacts ( social, economic,

environmental) at small scale enabling dike breaches

simulations, evacuation possibilities, .. Testing

different mitigation possibilities, different decision, ….

Response or added value of CRISMA

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Pilot C : Accidental Pollution – Ashdod (Israel)

A large accidental spill from a

container transporting Bromine

is immediately affecting the

port and later the city centre

(100 000 inhabitants).

Consider the effects of various

decisions on development and

final outcome

Possible extensions the multi-

hazards, e.g. seismic, flood,

fire, pandemic.

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CRISMA in Pilot C

CRISMA system is operated

by information officers and

runs independently from the

command and control system

The situation picture could be

forwarded to C&C system.

Alternatively, the situation is

shown on CRISMA system

and interpreted by in. Officer.

Medical commander decides

what to do and the in. off.

executes the decision on

CRISMA system.

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Pilot D : Geophysical Hazards – L’Aquila (Italy)

A large seismic event hits the

L’Aquila region, causing

structural damage and follow-

up cascading effects

Scenario includes the effects

of reoccurring seismic events

and secondary forest fires,

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CRISMA in Pilot D

Use:

Preparedness and planning: optimal distribution of resources?

Training: intervention after an earthquake or during forest fire

Response: alternative management policies

The added-value:

Quantitative assessment of impact scenarios (simulated by

assumption of alternative strategies) to compare

Cost/ benefit analysis

Multi-criteria analyses

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Pilot E : Mass casualty incident – Germany

Phase 1: bus crash with 50 injured on a rural-district level.

Phase 2: a mass casualty, e. g. in a stadium or congress centre

occupied with people of several nationalities

Accident

Alert at Command & Control Center

9:00 AM 09:13

Start Operational Phase

Arrival on site,Hazard Anaysis

Pre-Triage

09:18

Spatial planning

09:22 09:37 10:13

Transportation to hospitals

09:25

All injured on theway to hospitals

Treatment of patients (on site, in vehicle)

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CRISMA in Pilot E

Use:

Training and Exercise-Support

Resource Planning (Material/Vehicles/Personnel)

Added Value:

Support real-life exercises

Analyse and compare results

Compare exercise-runs with simulated response

simulation runs

Calibrate response simulation models

Improve operational plans

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Overview

What is CRISMA?

CRISMA test cases



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Sample CRISMA scenario Firemen & co.

can be either

real or

simulated

Users care about the

situation, predictions

and own decisions.

Behind the

scenes, various

services are

invoked

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Conceptual Business Logic

World

(what is out here?)

World

Model

Incident

Model

Response

Model

World

Situation(X, t)

Incident

Situation(X, t)

Parameters ParametersParameters

Define freely Define freely Define freely

OR OR OR

(what are we dealing with?) (how do we react?)

Incident Response influences influences

Restore

Model

Restore

Situation(X, t)

Response

Situation(X, t)

Define freely

Parameterscreates

The „world“ is

represented by „situation“

and by models which can

change the situation

Situations and models

pertinent to different stages

of crisis management are

relatively decoupled

New situations

can also be

postulated by

users

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Materialization of the CRISMA business logic

Vulnerability Classes

:

Situation Maps

Objects of Interest

Weather Data

...

SimulationModel Control

Parameter

SimulationWorld State

Manipulation

Vulnerability Classes

:

Situation Maps

Objects of Interest

Weather Data

...


Parameter

World State'

change

Criteria and Costs

Criteria and Costs

Criteria Function

FederatedSimulation

. . .

FederatedSimulation

FederatedSimulation

calculate

trigger

perform

kl

Hazard Exposure

MitigationResource

Management

f

M

M

M

M

CRISMA

framework

operate on

„world states“,

coherent sets

of data

describing the

(simulated)

world

Users Decisions

change the world state

– either directly or by

changing model

parameters

Everything we

know about the

World is based

on the world

state

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Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

World StateData


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

World StateData


Parameter

World State

Transition

Time

Alt

ern

ati

ves

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

World StateData


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

World StateData


Parameter

Decision Points & Alternative Worlds

Alternative users’

decisions result in

alternative World

States.

The results can be

compared...

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Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

World StateData


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

World StateData

Criteria and Costs


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

World StateData


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

WorldState


Parameter

Criteria and Costs

World StateData


Parameter

PlanningDecision Making

Training

Criteria and Costs

are representative

quantifications of a world

state

are independent from the

models and decisions

are the base for situation

analysis and visualization

support decision making

transferable solutions can

be developed

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Functional Building Blocks of the CRISMA Framework

User interaction BBs

Web widgets which

can be easily

combined in mashup

applications

Infrastructure BBs

Provide the core

functionality of the

Framework

Integration BBs simplify the

task of integrating data and

models in CRISMA

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Integration at Service & GUI level

Service level: CRISMA

framework is service oriented =>

applications can be made by

combining the services

GUI level: Alternatively, the

applications can be built from

mashable (web) widgets by

crisis management experts

Ad-hoc stand alone (web)

applications

Integrate as a new view in

existing web or desktop

applications

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Main models types in CRISMA

ECONOMIC IMPACTS

CASCADE EFFECTS

TIME DEPENDENT

VULNERABILITY

RESSOURCES MANAGEMENT

Illustrations by: Konzumel (money - http://www.flickr.com/photos/kozumel/), Jeff McNeill (time - http://www.flickr.com/photos/jeffmcneill/),

Donwoodyard (ambulance - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lanka_ambulance.jpg),

Nauticashades (domino - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ADomino_Cascade.JPG)

http://www.flickr.com/photos/kozumel/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/jeffmcneill/

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lanka_ambulance.jpg

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ADomino_Cascade.JPG

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Loose Coupling

Model Integration

Model 1 Model 2

Data

Exchange

or

Model 1 Model 2

e.g. „only“

Relation

via Geo-

Location

Model 1 Model 2

Data

Exchange

vs. Tight Coupling

CRISMA framework will

support lose integration of

loosely coupled models

Models will be accessible

through standard OGC service

interfaces; WPS will be used to

control the model execution

Tightly coupled models will be

handled externally (e.g. using

OpenMI) and appear as a

single compound model for the

framework

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Encapsuation

Model Integration (2)

Existing models can be

encapsulated behind standard

OGC interfaces

CRISMA models will also

provide default user interface

in form of mashable web

widget(s)

However, we will also provide

support for materialization of

the algebraic models and

models which can be realized

using agents (resources/OOI)

Materialization

Algebraic Models

Agent-based

OGC SERVICE

INTERFACES

Mashable GUI

widget(s)

Illustrations by: iCLIPART (model, agent); T.Nijeholt (GIS model, http://commons.wikimedia.org);

http://commons.wikimedia.org/



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Overview

What is CRISMA?

CRISMA test cases



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Context of use vs. Pilots

Debriefing

Real-life

exercises Training

Planning

Exercise planning

Pilot

Use

Case 1. Long-term

planning 2. Incident

evolvement

planning

Context

Of Use

Office,

Distributed

• Decider

• Crisis

Manager

Office or

Control Room

• CRISMA-user

• Decider

middle-level

• Decider

higher-level

B – France D – Italy E – Germany,

C – Israel

A – Finland

3. Resource

planning

4. Command

and Control

Training

6. Operational

Training

C – Israel E – Germany

5. Exercise-

Support

Office or

Command

Post

• Decider

on lower/

tactical

level

Office, distri-

buted

• Decider

middle-level

• Decider

higher-level

Command

Post

• Decider

middle-level

• Information

officer

• Trainer

Control Room

• Dispatcher

tactical level

• Trainer

Exercise scene

• Exercise

leader

• Exercise

Data Steward

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We need your feedback (on this

presentation and especially in follow-

up poster session) to re-assess the

CRISMA requirements and design

decision => improve the usability of

the final CRISMA results!

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© Crismaproject

Thank you very much!

www.crismaproject.eu

Modelling crisis management for

improved action and preparedness

Funded under grant agreement

no. 284552

[email protected]

Denis Havlik

© Sven Grundmann – fotolia.com

[email protected]

Johannes Sautter

Technology

Crisma presentation - Workshop 2013-05-30