Corey Dickerson Has Broken theRules

by Jeff Sullivan - March 11, 2015

It can be a bit tricky to do this job from the west coast. As soon as youwake up, you’re behind, and I find I always have to begin my daysreading. On the plus side, it’s usually reading I’d have to do anyway. Alsoon the plus side, you never know where you might find an idea. Earliertoday, I was reading Eno’s latest post , on Joey Votto and Jay BruceNot only did the post provide excellent insight — it also took me back tosomething from last July. Eno was talking to Bruce about shifts, andusing the whole field. An excerpt of a response:

But you hear people talk all the time, ‘I don’t know why he doesn’t justhit the ball to left field, or bunt.’ Well, the shifts are getting moresophisticated, where the third baseman is playing in. And the other guysare over. How many guys do you really know that hit for power that hitground-balls to the opposite side of the field?

This is data I’ve played with a little before. Nori Aoki, for example, hits aton of grounders toward the opposite field. Aoki also has 19 career homeruns. Not a power threat. You already know many of the guys withstronger pull tendencies on the ground. They see a lot of shifts, and thegroup includes players like Chris Davis, Ryan Howard, and David

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Ortiz. But let’s see about answering Bruce’s question. Are there anypowerful hitters who send grounders the other way? I know I alreadyruined the surprise before I even started the body of the post, but, do playalong, won’t you?

You could’ve guessed this, but, absolutely, there’s a link between hittingfor power and pulling or not pulling grounders. I looked at numbers fromthe past three seasons, and I selected hitters who’ve put in play at least100 grounders over that span. I then calculated their opposite-field-grounder rates (OppGB%), which is possible to do using information fromthe FanGraphs leaderboards. I sorted the players — all 465 of them — byz-scores. For the record, the average OppGB% is a hair below 13%. Here’sa table showing the link in one direction between OppGB% and ISO,where each of the five groups includes 93 players:

Group OppGB% ISOGroup 1 19% 0.101Group 2 15% 0.125Group 3 12% 0.146Group 4 10% 0.159Group 5 7% 0.172

As OppGB% goes down, power output goes up. There’s nothinggroundbreaking here. For some reason, here’s a table showing the samelink in the other direction:

Group ISO OppGB%Group 1 0.208 10%Group 2 0.165 10%Group 3 0.141 12%Group 4 0.112 14%Group 5 0.076 16%

In the first table, the players were grouped in order of OppGB%. In thesecond table, the players were grouped in order of ISO. Shown here: aspower goes down, OppGB% goes up. Same deal. So we’ve established the

relationship. As you can imagine, this has a lot to do with swing paths. It’snot easy to hit a grounder the other way, and it’s especially not easy ifyou have a swing designed to launch the baseball 400 feet. Now, is thereanything to be said about exceptions?

This graph is showing you the same information. All this does is displaythe inverse relationship between power and opposite-field grounders. Butyou see that one point is highlighted. The whole player pool doesn’t fallright on the best-fit line, and no one is further from the best-fit line thanCorey Dickerson. Dickerson has hit 20% of his grounders toward theopposite field, nearly two standard deviations from the mean. He’s alsoposted a .237 ISO, precisely two standard deviations from the mean.

Granted, ISO isn’t park-adjusted, and Dickerson has played half the timein Colorado, but if you apply a quick adjustment, his ISO stays over.200. The best-fit line would predict an ISO of .096.

Taking all the players with an ISO at least one standard deviation abovethe mean, here are the highest opposite-field-grounder rates:

Corey Dickerson, 20%Ryan Zimmerman, 19%Ian Desmond, 17%Matt Holliday, 16%J.P. Arencibia, 16%Ryan Braun, 15%Bryce Harper, 15%Robinson Cano, 15%Justin Upton, 14%Tyler Colvin, 14%

Dickerson isn’t the only exception. And you’ll notice a few Nationals onthere, so maybe that’s a thing worth examining. But Dickerson stands asthe most extreme exception, over the three-year window investigated. It’snot the easiest thing in the world to explain why, but at least visually, youcan see he has an unusual swing:

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Dickerson's solo homer More info

Dickerson knows he has an uncommon swing path . I’ll leave it toDan Farnsworth or someone to go into detail. I’m not going to break downDickerson’s swing because I’m not qualified to do that, and I’m sure I’dget a lot of things wrong. What we have is the result. Dickerson has hitpitches a little differently. So his hit distribution has been a little different.Some of it just comes from the ballpark, but that doesn’t explaineverything entirely. He’s hit the ball to all fields, he’s hit the ball on theground to all fields, and he’s also hit for power. Dickerson has never beenconsidered much of a prospect, despite his results, and maybe scoutswere just thrown by an unfamiliar-looking swing. Through 700 big-leaguetrips to the plate, Dickerson’s posted a 127 wRC+.

Something we can’t speak to is sustainability. Because I’ve never donemuch with this data, I don’t know how meaningful it is when it comes toseeing into the future. On the one hand, this could mean Dickerson isgoing to continue to exceed expectations. He might continue to be anexception to an otherwise pretty stringent rule. Or maybe this just meansDickerson is a good bet to have his numbers regress. Could be, he hits forless power. Or, could be, he hits fewer opposite-field grounders. What he’sdone isn’t done often, and that’s enough to make one wary. But if nothingelse, we’ve uncovered an answer to Jay Bruce’s question from last July.Corey Dickerson. Corey Dickerson is one.

Related Posts:

A Tribute to Last Year’s Hits Off the GroundExamining Responses to the ShiftColorado’s Canny Outfield PlatoonTwo Young Colorado Outfielders Benefitting From SuccessIs Carlos Correa Already Baseball’s Best Shortstop?Grounders in the Age of the Shift

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Sir Gallahad the Mildly Depressed 1 year 4 months ago

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Mike 1 year 4 months ago

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Dustin 1 year 4 months ago

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about theMariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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Does this relationship also apply to someone who hits most of the homers tothe opposite field? I’m thinking of Brantley, specifically, and wondering if it isindicative of a fluky 2014. Not sure if his ISO was high enough to qualify foryour table though.

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Brantley hit every HR to the pull side in 2014

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Sure, if you want to consider Brantley a left handed hitter, that’strue.

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Eric 1 year 4 months ago

wolverinebball11 1 year 4 months ago

Glen Neck 1 year 4 months ago

Jeffrey Lage 1 year 3 months ago

Bomok 1 year 4 months ago

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But if you consider Brantley a right handed hitter, he hit everyhome run to opposite field

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Brantley IS a lefty, so yeah that’s what I consider him to be.

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Righty, lefty, who cares? Let’s keep this a politics free zone

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http://hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2014_3982&type=hitter

Brantley Pulled all of his home runs last year

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I’d like to point out, that if you subtract 50 ISO points because of Coors field,then he’s not nearly as much of an outlier as before.Make no mistake, he IS an outlier. But he goes from being 1 of a kind, to being

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Phil 1 year 4 months ago

CS Yankee 1 year 4 months ago

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Vil 1 year 4 months ago

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5 or 10 of a kind.

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“Granted, ISO isn’t park-adjusted, and Dickerson has played half the timein Colorado, but if you apply a quick adjustment, his ISO stays over .200.”

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Great article, things to think about.

I doubt the Nat’s draft kids with this in mind, but I bet they are more likely todraft hitters that spray the ball all over the field (not just the air) with somepower. They might go after this skillset moreso than other clubs.

The Rox announcer sounds like he says “…pulled one out” on an oppo-dinger;pushed yeah, pulled? not so much.

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I’m not sure the ability to hit to the opposite field is accidental withZimmmerman or Desmond. Under Riggleman, the Nats had an emphasison hitting the ball the opposite way.When Davey Johnson took over he felt that the hitters were trying to gothe opposite way too much, thus sapping them of power. But some of theold habits may have carried over with Zimmy and Ian.Tom Boswell wrote a good column about this in 2012:http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals-vs-braves-nats-are-hitting-their-stride-as-pennant-race-heats-up/2012/08/20/9ca7b6e8-eb2f-11e1-a80b-9f898562d010_story.html

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Vil 1 year 4 months ago

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Rational Fan 1 year 4 months ago

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Please excuse the extra m in Zimmerman.

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Chalk me up as one of the biggest Corey Dickerson fans/supporters for 2015.Dickerson flew under the radar a bit last year – maybe it was because he playsin Colorado? Maybe it’s because people tend to discredit Coorsaccomplishments, but by seasons end it could be argued that Dickerson fellwithin the top 15 outfielders in the game.

His approach was a positive, and an unknown before this article… thanks a lotJeff! It was part of what made him so successful, so while I’m happy to see thedap given to him here, I’m disappointed as I prefer the under the radarDickerson; for my own monetary gains that is.

Dickerson has some incredible pitch recognition – which allows him to dictatehow he’s going to approach the baseball. Balls that he can’t drive, he allows hishands to wait back a little longer while his hands drive through the zoneforcing the ball on the ground the other way. His pitch recognition is also goodenough to realize a driveable pitch which causes him to use more bottom handdriving the ball in the air and pulling his hands through the zone quickly(pulling the baseball as well).

For my money, Dickerson is the best outfielder in Colorado this year – stepaside Gonzalez.

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FeslenR 1 year 4 months ago

Eric 1 year 4 months ago

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BaseballGuy 1 year 4 months ago

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Eric 1 year 4 months ago

he flew under the radar because, like Blackmon was a part-timer untilinjuries hit the fan with the Rockies. He’s no longer flying under the radarthough.

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Also has INSANE Home/Away & L/R splits. 202 wRC+ vs RHP at home, everyother split is below 94 wRC+.

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Home/Road splits are actually LESS important for Rockies hitters thanany others. The penalty for that transition from home to road is as big —and there’s some evidence it’s bigger — than the boost they get fromhitting at Coors. When Rockies hitters are traded, they almost invariablyproduce at the same overall rate (park adjusted), just with smaller splits.Dickerson really is a 127 or so wRC+ hitter. Would be anywhere.

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He’s a .245/.292/.389, 86 wRC+ hitter away from Coors. Since2010, no Rockie with more than 300 PA tops Dickerson’s 162 wRC+at home. No one even comes close; the next highest is CarGo at148. Compare that to the difference between Home/Away wRC+,where no one particularly comes close to Dickerson’s 76 pointdifferential in wRC+ (Ianetta is next highest, at ~60).

This seems somewhat like an extreme. He seems to be taking a

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wolverinebball11 1 year 4 months ago

DD 1 year 4 months ago

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much greater advantage of Coors conditions (particularly vs RHP)than any other Rockiers hitter.

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300 PA is still SSS land. Rockies hitters tend to see their splitseven out the longer they’re with the club, so stay tuned.

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Maybe a coincidence, or just my eyes playing tricks, but his swing looks a lotlike Todd Helton’s. I assume we don’t have the batted ball data to get OppGB%for Helton from his heyday to confirm he was a similar outlier?

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Wow, it really does look like Helton now a you mention it

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IIRC Carl Yastrzemski, who certainly qualified as a LH power hitter (at one timethe only active player with three 40-HR seasons) hit a lot of grounders to short;this was presumably the result of an inside-out swing tailored to Fenway.

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Brian McGill 1 year 4 months ago

Gotowarmissagnes 1 year 4 months ago

1 year 4 months agoMike13

Thijs 1 year 4 months ago

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George Brett would probably score very well on this matrix as well.

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At least one of the 2014 projection systems had a strong projection forDickerson, and since I like lefty hitters to platoon, I drafted him late forfantasy. I am very happy, and want to thank ZiPS, Steamer, or whoever thehell that was.

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He is gonna regress, a stat like that seems very unlikely to hold up

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It seems like he keeps his bat much more horizontal, unlike the LH powerhitter mentioned in this article. Therefore, if he gets on top of the ball, itdoesn’t automatically mean the ball will be pulled. As you can imagine whenthe bat is much more vertical and the hitter is rolling over, it will beautomatically pulled. Basically the reason why most groundballs are pulled, itis nearly impossible to have an horizontal bat at contact. Therefore, mostflyballs are to rightfield.

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Thijs 1 year 4 months ago

That should be opposite field.

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