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Groningen, 10 december 2013
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The Energy Transition: how can we accelerate it?
Groningen 10 December 2013
Prof.dr.ir. Jan Rotmans
www.twitter.com/janrotmans
we do not live in an era of change
but in a change of eras
Crisis from transition perspective
Current crisis is a systems crisis
financial crisis is a symptom of systems crisis
energy crisis and climate crisis yet to come
systems crisis is deeply rooted in
production & consumption exhaustion of natural resources
only transformative change will help
Concatenation of Crises
till 2020: financial-economic crisis
after 2020: ecological crises
resources & materials
energy
climate
Raw Materials Crisis
era of easily exploitable raw metrials is over
17 critical earth metals are getting scarcescandium, neodymium, dysprosium, gadolinium, lanthanum
wind mills, electric cars, smartphones, solar cels
expected growth of these earth metals is > 1000%
97% of these critical metals is in the hands of China
the real crisis is yet to come
that is a blessing in disguise
Blessing in Disguise
back to the core in an innovative manner
new sobriety
eruption of creativity and innovation
human scale
Society is at Tipping Point
Tipping Point
period during which many changes take place
is rare in modern human history
example: end of 19th century
modernisation process: basis for Europe
education, health care, voting right, social structures
Indications of a Tipping Point
unheimisch feeling no clear direction
chaos & instability
bottom-up revolution new power emerging
conflicts between existing and new order
20 - 30 years
Throughdevelopment phasePredevelopment phase
20 – 30 years
Transition to Society 3.0
New paradigm”
New institutions
New companies
Tipp
ing
Poin
t
Old paradigm
Old institutions
Old companies
Time
We are here
Consolidatiion
Society 3.0
do it ourselves society
bottom-up society
participation society
citizen power social do-it-self
Tipping Point Phaseenergy companies in trouble
home care organizations in trouble
welfare organizations in trouble
building companies in trouble
housing corporations in trouble
“ speed by which Europe builds windmill parks
& solar panels needs to be slowed down. The
situation is untenable. It kills our business ”
Gérard Mestrallet, CEO GDF/Suez
Paradigm Shift
old worldview new worldview
exploitation model co-operation model
economic profit societal profit
linear processes circular
deriving values creating values
individual-driven community-driven
Shift in Values
Old Values New Values
effectiveness attention / time
efficiency trust
control, maintenance space
rules & laws choice of freedom
quantity quality
Evolutionary Revolution
silos are broken down
new institutions arise
people break through structures
Creeping Revolution
numerous entrepreneurs break through the systems
break through existing order: burglars in common order
‘do it themselves’ in collective (digital) networks
bottom-up movement from passion and inspiration
glocalisation
Where are these changes visible?energy
from central, fossil to decentralized clean
construction from supply & product to demand & service
health care from effective & efficient to human-oriented
food from global, industrialized to regional, sustainable
humans central
Transition
Transition fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in societal (sub)system
– structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure (market, consumption, production), institutions (rules, regulations,
actors)
– culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectives, paradigms
– practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling, at the individual level
incumbent structure, culture and practices need to bebroken down and new ones need to be built up
Transition is Evolutionary Revolution
evolutionary
old institutions die out, new institutions arise
labor unions, political parties versus communities and cooperations
revolutionary
process of radical, irreversible societal change
society 3.0 will become radically different: glocal, bottom-up, decentralized
Decay & Build-up
Transition = Power Shift
regime: dominant structure, culture and practices with power and vested interests
niche: emerging, divergent structure, culture and practices at a small scale level
niche wants to develop power and take over incumbent regime regime protects itself against this through absorption, assimilation or elimination of niches
transition = regime-change = power shift
Transition = Battlefield
evolutionary revolution
3 out of 5 companies will die out
not the biggest but the most adaptive will survive
Transition Management
Transition Approach
provide incentives for radical innovation
create innovation spaces for radical innovation
bring together frontrunners in innovation spaces
start portfolio of transition experiments
Transition Management Cycle
vision, pathways,transition agenda
transition arena
transition experiments
evaluation, monitoring learning
Transition Arena- long term- front runners- system innovation- problem / goal seraching
Different Arenas
Political Arena- short / medium term- peloton - incremental changes - problem- and goal oriented
Market Arena- short term- efficiency- profit / growth
Transition Arena
– protected but not closed innovation network
– majority is niche players, minority is regime players
– dynamic learning network with temporary status
– 10-15 participants, frontrunners
– from society, business, government, science, NGOs
facilitating
- creating radical innovation spaces
- removing barriers
- forming coalitions around frontrunners
- stimulating financial arrangements
Transition Policy
challenge market, mobilize society
phase 1 searching, learning, experimenting
phase 2 selecting, scaling up
phase 3 integrating in primary policy process
frontrunners
Transition Policy
Transition to Green Economy
Green Economy
1. clean and safeclean production of goods, materials and energy
2. circularwaste is resource for new products: closing
loops
3. bio-basedgreen resources as basis: plants and rest
products
global economy around ‘clean tech industry’
fastest growing industry in the world
2012: 300 billion dollar (30% growth t.o.v. 2011)
China 60 billion Germany 45 billionAmerica 40 billionItaly 17 billion
Netherlands 2.5 billion
Green Economy is ‘booming’
Clean Energy Technology growth rates per country
green economy of crucial importance for Europein potency 22 million Europeans involved
in 2013: 2-4% of total employment
in 2020: 5-10% of total employment
Germany is the frontrunner
Denmark performs well
England is improving
Netherlands is starting up and underachieving
Green Economy in Europe
Green Economy = ca. 4% of Total Economy (GDP)
Clean Tech = ca. 2% of Total Economy (GDP)
by now 2-4% of total economy
in 2025 11 - 21% at 15% growth per year
in 2030 22 - 43% at 15% growth per year
Green Economy in the Netherlands
Energy Transition
Global Energy Supply Systemecological
– harmful emissions for humans and nature – contributes substantially to climate change
economic– dependent on politically/economically instable countries– vulnerable to disturbance of energy supply
social– affordability for households / companies under pressure– 2 billion people have no access to modern energy
current global energy supply is not sustainable
Global Energy Dynamics
abundance of fossil fuels
– shale gas and unconventional oil in the United States – surplus of cheap coal to Europe
huge CO2-emissons and environmental pollution
emergence of clean tech
– China is the big motor behind ‘clean tech’– China plays double role, big investments in fossil fuels
still small, but fastly growing
Global Energy Transition
is at a Tipping Point period
huge dynamics, instability and turbulence
battle between vested and emerging power
battlefield
Tipping Point Indications
3 years ago: nuclear renaissance by now: nuclear pathwork
5 years ago: US largest importer of gas by now: US exporter of gas to Europe
4 years ago: price of solar panels high by now: price of solar panels 60% lower
Global Energy Power Struggle
Obama
“ The country that will dominate the clean tech economy
will be the country that will dominate the world economy
and America needs to be that country ”
Global Energy Transition
not driven by scarcity, climate, environment
but driven by geo-political forces
power shift arguments
price developments
no vision and no strategy
other global world power blocks are pro-active
Europe is not on a route to energy-autonomy
Europe does not have a clear strategy
Germany is the absolute frontrunner in clean energy
influences the energy price in other countries
more and more big power plants are closed
big European energy companies will die out
Europe is divided
Energytransition /
Energiewende
Figures & Trends
Energymix Germany versus Netherlands
Germany Netherlands
coal 25% 7%
oil 34% 56%
gas 21% 32%
nuclear 8% 1%
sustainable 12% 4%
Electricity Germany versus Netherlands
Germany Netherlands
sustainable electricity 25% 10%
biomass 33% 60%
wind 40% 40%
solar 26% 0.1%
Speed of Sustainable EnergyGermany
2003 - 10% sustainable electricity
2013 - 25% sustainable electricity
2020 - 35% sustainable electricity ?
Netherlands
2003 - 4.5 % sustainable electricity
2013 - 10 % sustainable electricity
2020 - 40 % sustainable electricity ?
Energy Price Germany versus Netherlands
Germany Netherlands
elektricity 30 cent /KwH 23 cent / KwH
15 cent stroomprijs 7 cent stroomprijs
8 cent BTW 3.5 cent BTW
6 cent ECO-toeslag 12 cent belasting
0.4 cent financiering
nieuw energienet
Financing Energiewende
small end users finance the energiewende
for the big companies
Story behind Figures
History Energiewende
1970-1980 broad green social movement
1980-2000 green government coalitions
1998-2001 fiscal greening: feed-in tariff
2011 Fukushima: political wende
History Energy transition
1970-1980 broad environmental consciousness
1980-2000 environmental policy
2000-2010 project energy transition
2013 National Energy Agreement
Essential Difference
Germany
first social movement, then policy/politics
Netherlands
first policy, then broader movement
Energy Transition partly failed
– in 2001 start by the ministry of economic affairs
– started with a small group, develops into a large network
– long-term vision developed [‘where do we want to go?’]
– 7 main themes selected [platforms or arenas]
– 26 transition pathways designed [‘how from here to there?’]
– 600 transition experiments [‘implement pathways?’]
Vernieuwende energie- en technologiebedrijven en onderzoeksinstituten
6 ministeriesInvloedrijke personenuit de energiesector
(Ministerie van EZ)
SENTER NOVEM
TRANSITION-PROJECTS
Platform-secretarissen
Regie-orgaanEnergietransitie(vh taskforce)
PLATFORMDUURZAMEMOBILITEIT
UKR-ondersteuning
Koplopersloket
PLATFORMGROENEGR.STOFFEN
PLATFORMKETEN-EFFIICENCY
PLATFORMDUURZAMEELEKTRIC.
PLATFORMGEBOUWDEOMGEVING
PLATFORMNIEUW GAS
26 26 TransitionTransition-paths-paths
11 Long term Long term visionvision
600600TransitionTransitionexperimensexperimens
PLATFORMKAS ALSE.BRON
IPE Onder-steunendestaf
“6 DG”overleg
InterdepartementaleProgrammadirectieEnergietransitie
Energy Transition
77 TransitionTransition themesthemes
What has been achieved?
• new discourse from a broad energy innovation network
• high ambition level related to a long term goal
• shared future perspective from a longer term orientation
• financial impulse via innovation agenda rooted in regime • portfolio of transition experiments
unique policy experiment
Organizations involved per platform
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Duurz
ame
elektr
icite
it
Duurz
ame
mob
iliteit
Gebou
wde o
mge
ving
Groen
e gr
onds
toffe
n
Keten
effic
iency
Nieuw g
as
Taskfo
rce
(exc
l plat
f. vz
)
Geen gevestigde,belangrijke speler
Gevestigde,belangrijke speler inandere sector
Gevestigde,belangrijke speler inenergiesector
Organizations involved in Energy Transition
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Experimenten Platform Taskforce (exclplatf. vz)
Grand Total
Geen gevestigde,belangrijke speler
Gevestigde,belangrijke speler inandere sector
Gevestigde,belangrijke speler inenergiesector
Woning-corporatiesen middel-grotegemeenten
Dutch Inertia
1.fossil energy is in our genes [DNA]
2.power of the energy regime
3.over regulation and bureaucracy
4.failing sustainable innovation policy
5.lack of political leadership
German Speed
1.energiewende rooted in years 70-80
2.powerful movement from bottom-up
3.‘feed-in’ tariff introduction
4.political inlfuence of the ‘Grünen’
5.political leadership: Hermann Scheer
Consequences for Germanyviolent battle and clash of interests
chaos and turbulence and protest
panic among big energy companies
chance on instabilities and ‘fall-outs’
spectacular break through of sustainable energy
build-up of green economy [400.000 jobs]
Consequences for the Netherlandsharmony and consensus
poldermodel with compromises
energy-intensive companies not dealt with
no radical breakthrough sustainable energy
Netherlands one of the leggars in Europe
no build-up of new economic structure
European Position of Netherlands
sustainable energy total : 24ste of 27 countries
sustainable energy per head: 20ste of 27
sustainable energy per GDP: 23ste of 27
EvaluationGermany
takes big jump, gambles and chooses radically
creates chaos & resistance, also green economy
Netherlands
takes little jumps and chooses gradually
harmony but also chaos, influenced by Germany
in Germany a power shift
in Netherlands status quo
in Germany energy gets
into hands of citizens, in
the Netherlands not yet
What does this mean?
Netherlands is in a fossil lock-in
coal fire plants, power plants, CO2-hub, gasrotonde, CCS
electricity surplus : 120% in 2020: 80%
dominance of fossil fuel energy-intensive industry
huge amounts of heat loss, little sustainable heat
emergence of decentralized sustainable energy, small capacity
Netherlands Fossil Guiding Country?
Dutch energy supply is one-sided and gas-oriented
Dependent on politically and economically instable regions
gasfields empty around 2025-2030, no clear alternatives yet
green gas has relatively small volume, shale gas not atractive
Netherlands as gas roundabout is financially not attractive
Dutch energy supply is far from sustainable
Strategy of the Netherlands
sustainable energy supply system is possible in 25 years
natural gas can be used as transition fuel for the next 10-15 years
break down natural gas fast while stimulating green gas
offshore wind, solar energy, sustainable heat, built environment
transition to biobased economy for industry /agriculture/transport
Centralized Energy Supply
accelerate transition to a green economy
- CO2-poor/free
- circular economy
- biobased
Energy sector will disappear
chemistry / agrifood points fully at energy
for transport sector energy becomes more important
building sector competes with energy in built environment
Decentralized Energy Supply
energy neutral built environment
smart grid infrastructure
scaling up local energy initiatives
Energy Agreement
polder compromise
covers only 25-30% of energy usage
shortest route to minimum 2020 goal
does not accelerate the energy transition
no fiscal green incentives
does no harm and is budget-neutral
Conclusions
energytransition demands courage & leadership
if NL is willing it can be energy neutral in 25 years
critical factor is not technology but willpower
Netherlands is forced to choose
